America 2050 ranks Tampa-Orlando HSR High

[blandman]

Ock, your reasoning is exhaustive and appreciated...I'm just not sure I understand your conclusion.  Are you saying HSR doesn't make sense anywhere?  You say Paris/Lyon and Tokyo/Osaka are the only two examples of "profitable" corridors, yet Germany, Spain, France, Japan, and China all have fairly extensive HSR networks.  And all continue to invest in HSR.  Also, isn't the $3.2bn over 4 years (i.e., < $1bn/year)?

I don't know the particulars about the timing/schedules of the proposed HSR, but I'm not sure why you factor in a 30-min wait for an hourly train.  I live a 20-min walk from 30th Street Station, and I typically leave my house 30-min before scheduled departure for the Acela to NYC.

[Ocklawaha]

Actually we NEED to build a high or higher speed rail system, and Florida like the entire east coast, as well as most of the west coast of the USA is crowded and running out of room. The demand is there if it is done right. I just don't think spending this sort of money on Tampa-Orlando as a first step is wise. The corridor is dense, but the current plan misses the corridor, touching only the end points (and not doing that very well.) My reasoning is this, we have the eyes of the world on us, and we have a nation eager to embrace a good transportation idea. If we stumble, the entire HSR industry is going to be killed in America for years to come. Finger pointing, blame and lawsuits will be flying all over the room.

WHY?

Because what we have planned is more like a hurry-up-offense then it is a real, decent, workable plan.
It misses almost all of the Orlando area. If Florida's plan were transferred to the Philly area we would be starting in Newtown and build to New York City, missing New Jersey!  Bad idea.

The HSR route doesn't get close to downtown Orlando, and in fact misses about 90% of the metro area which sprawls north from the Orlando Airport to Deland. Phase 2? It manages to run from Orlando to Miami by missing even more of the Orlando area. Florida has screwed the pooch with this plan and if I were a betting man, I'd bet there's a ratMOUSE at the bottom of it all.

It seems to build a HSR line in Florida one needs to:

Disregard or find a way to miss the entire corridor between end points
Build stations on freeways at least 5 miles from any civilization
Serve a theme park better then the residents
Miss one of your two end point cities
Plan a one way fare 3x what the round trip costs today
Disregard a already in place Union Station with room for 10 tracks and hundreds of parking spaces in favor of a parking garage
Make sure the corridor is within the 100km distance that fails in Europe...

See what I mean?  All of this is correctable, but we're rushing off the cliff for free money with a sub-standard plan.

OCKLAWAHA

[FayeforCure]

All of this is correctable, but we're rushing off the cliff for free money with a sub-standard plan.[/b]

OCKLAWAHA

Well, actually we are definitely NOT rushing off the cliff for free money!!!

Thia plan for Florida HSR has been in the works for more than a decade, and has been killed several times by Republicans obstructionism.

In November 2000, Florida voters approved an amendment to Florida's constitution mandating the state establish a system of high speed trains exceeding 120 mph to link its five largest urban areas, with construction to commence by November 1, 2003. The Florida Legislature enacted the Florida High Speed Rail Authority Act in March 2001, creating the Florida High Speed Rail Authority (HSRA).[5] The HSRA established a Vision Plan for the system which proposed construction in several phases.[6] Preliminary assessments and environmental studies were begun to develop an initial phase of the system between Orlando and Tampa.[5]

The first phase, planned for completion in 2009 under the original referendum, would have connected Orlando to Tampa (Phase 1, Part 1), with a later extension to St. Petersburg (Phase 1, Part 2).[7] Later phases might have extended the network to Miami, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Pensacola

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_high_speed_rail

Ock is no urban planner, so lets see what a bonafide urban planner,  Petra Todorovich, an urban planner with America 2050, has to say about the ridership feasibility of Florida HSR, the way it is currently planned:

"Florida is unique in having the only project in the nation with dedicated (right-of-way) and the ability to get started in the next year, so we see that a worthy enough attribute to put Florida in front of the line.

"While Florida does not lead the nation in some factors that lead to ridership â€" population density and existing (connecting ) rail transit -- it has other factors going for it."

Those include a key element not included in the study's formula that weighs a dozen factors such as traffic congestion to create comparative scores to rank pairs of high-speed rail destinations.

The 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida â€" let alone tourists in the Tampa and Miami areas expected to be rail passengers â€" were not factored into the report's equation but would contribute to a higher score for Florida routes, Todorovich said. The visitors element was not included because of difficulties getting comparable, valid data from other regions.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/14/150003/planner-says-scott-should-take-high-speed-rail-mon/news-breaking/

[Ralph W]

http://transportationnation.org/2011/01/11/potential-high-speed-rail-corridors-rated-northeast-tops-list/

I would think that the key element would be this, a portion of a sentence in the article:

"...but did not consider the cities in between each pairing."

[FayeforCure]

http://transportationnation.org/2011/01/11/potential-high-speed-rail-corridors-rated-northeast-tops-list/

I would think that the key element would be this, a portion of a sentence in the article:

"...but did not consider the cities in between each pairing."

The new 2011 study by America 2050 is an improvement over the 2009 simple city pairing study, because this new study actually DOES consider cities in between each pairing.

On the tourism ridership that wasn't included even in the new study ( I think that was misleading and makes their study incomplete), here is the key point assuring sufficient ridership:

close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

[Dog Walker]

Ock, I have ridden the trains in both the Netherlands and France and the under 100k lines were jammed, especially during the morning and evening commuting hours.  

In the Netherlands during those hours they are so crowded that bicycles are not allowed on board and that is considered a violation of human rights in that country.

[Ocklawaha]

Ock, I have ridden the trains in both the Netherlands and France and the under 100k lines were jammed, especially during the morning and evening commuting hours.  

In the Netherlands during those hours they are so crowded that bicycles are not allowed on board and that is considered a violation of human rights in that country.

Exactly, the short haul's fail in Europe economically as they DO NOT and probably CAN NOT cover their high cost of operations. You cannot make a Boeing 777 work a flight between Jacksonville and St. Augustine and expect anything good to come of it. This is high density commuter or regional rail territory and a sprinter like high speed train cannot as the railroaders say, "Stretch its legs."

Quote from: Ralph W on Today at 12:28:31 PM
http://transportationnation.org/2011/01/11/potential-high-speed-rail-corridors-rated-northeast-tops-list/

I would think that the key element would be this, a portion of a sentence in the article:

"...but did not consider the cities in between each pairing."

You are 75% correct Ralph, I'll give you points for the other 25% as well, because they DID NOT consider the ORLANDO MSA either.

The new 2011 study by America 2050 is an improvement over the 2009 simple city pairing study, because this new study actually DOES consider cities in between each pairing.

On the tourism ridership that wasn't included even in the new study ( I think that was misleading and makes their study incomplete), here is the key point assuring sufficient ridership:

Maybe so Faye, like you and I consider the if it's going to rain today or be sunny, either way we aren't changing a damn thing we've planned.

Quote
Quote
close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

I agree with you on this one Faye, when factoring in ridership numbers you can leave NO passenger behind. Apparently the newest study has done exactly that. Trouble is OIA-International Drive-Disney is LOCAL and even if you put 5 million a year on it, it is not going to turn a profit in cash, though I strongly doubt their optimistic projections. Profit in long term jobs maybe, profit in Florida photo opportunities yes, profit in "cool" yes, profit on the international speed race no freaking way. For connectivity I give them a giant ZERO, in part because Yahoo's in Central Florida's Doc Dockery camp (I was table "chair" for his table in the HSR conference work shop and he couldn't answer my questions then or now, through we remain friends and he corresponds) did everything in their power to cripple Sunrail, the one project that probably WILL blow away ridership projections.
Without Sunrail's connectivity the project is doomed as far as locals are concerned.

Ock is no urban planner, so lets see what a bonafide urban planner,  Petra Todorovich, an urban planner with America 2050, has to say about the ridership feasibility of Florida HSR, the way it is currently planned:

You are 100% correct on this, I am a "bonafide" published railroad historian and international railroad planner. I'll stack my train knowledge against any urban planner in the room. But thank you for the chance to bring this out in the conversation.

Quote
"Florida is unique in having the only project in the nation with dedicated (right-of-way) and the ability to get started in the next year, so we see that a worthy enough attribute to put Florida in front of the line.

...and THAT says NOTHING about the success of the railroad itself. Wow, we have right-of-way (a freaking freeway, which frankly, most any city pair in America could claim) ...and we can start our badly planned disaster faster then California can start a great plan, so "ME FIRST! ME FIRST! ME FIRST," even if its wrong.

"While Florida does not lead the nation in some factors that lead to ridership â€" population density and existing (connecting ) rail transit -- it has other factors going for it."

This is a very funny statement, we won't have riders but we've got people... People we've managed to avoid with the entire intermediate route. Our existing (connecting) rail transit is a paper plan for Orlando, and two lousy Amtrak trains daily...trains which by the way, DO NOT connect with HSR according to our plan.

Those include a key element not included in the study's formula that weighs a dozen factors such as traffic congestion to create comparative scores to rank pairs of high-speed rail destinations.

Go for it and see how many of those cars you pull off of I-4, even TUFSU will probably admit that NO mode is going to make even a dent in that. I LOVE TRAINS, and everything rail, but lets be real, the only thing we get from this is choice.

The 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida â€" let alone tourists in the Tampa and Miami areas expected to be rail passengers â€" were not factored into the report's equation but would contribute to a higher score for Florida routes, Todorovich said. The visitors element was not included because of difficulties getting comparable, valid data from other regions.

As I said, I agree this was a grave mistake HOWEVER, I understand their unwillingness to put pen to paper. Mr and Mrs Paris Bakery Owner, plan a Florida vacation, they can buy an all inclusive package, or rent a car and explore the state on their own... Which do they choose? Doesn't matter because when they look at the map and realize that even built out this poorly planned system won't touch Daytona Beach, St. Augustine, Ft. Myers, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Gainesville, Naples, Venice, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, etc... and GOD HELP YOU if you think you'll ride a 104km HSR line back and forth and magically transfer to any of those destinations. Bottom line? WE ARE NOT READY and therefor will get little from our rail savvy Euro-visitors except a polite smile.

OCKLAWAHA

[Ralph W]

http://transportationnation.org/2011/01/11/potential-high-speed-rail-corridors-rated-northeast-tops-list/

I would think that the key element would be this, a portion of a sentence in the article:

"...but did not consider the cities in between each pairing."

The new 2011 study by America 2050 is an improvement over the 2009 simple city pairing study, because this new study actually DOES consider cities in between each pairing.

On the tourism ridership that wasn't included even in the new study ( I think that was misleading and makes their study incomplete), here is the key point assuring sufficient ridership:

close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

A flaw in the quote, above, assumes that the entire 50 million visitors drop in from MCO and that IF 5% take the train then they meet their projections of 2.4 million riders. A little look at some other figures shows that MCO total passenger count in 2009 was 33,693,649. This figure is made up of 3 parts: 1. Arrives in, 2. Departs from, and 3. Transfers through.

Taking a little license here: IF you disregard those just passing through and evenly divide arrivals and departures you get only 16,846,824 incoming. Let's assume they all are heading for Disney and IF 5% take the train then the grand total on the train is 842,341. Not even close to the projection.

My reading of this study, at this point, shows wishful thinking. Their two premises are project readiness and public ownership of the ROW and that coupled with on time and on budget completion will show an important on-the-ground demonstration of HSR in America.

They can spend the money but they can't really show where the riders are coming from and THAT is a very poor demonstration of HSR anywhere.

[yapp1850]

 Atlanta to  Chattanooga,  The train has proposed stops at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, downtown, Kennesaw, Cartersville, Dalton, Lovell Field in Chattanooga and downtown Chattanooga. 2.2-4.0 million at top speed 180mph dist  110 miles and macon to jacksonville top spreed 140mph

[yapp1850]

hey ock the route is following east side of hwy 75

[Ocklawaha]

hey ock the route is following east side of hwy 75

Maybe so, but the Georgia plan has it veer east to Savannah from Macon which is about as stupid as going from Tampa to Miami via Orlando and Cocoa.

I have seen alternatives on the old ACL route from Manchester to Waycross which is a hell of a lot more direct. The hands down winner as far as I'm concerned is the old Ponce De Leon-Royal Palm trains route from Atlanta-Macon-Tifton-Adel-Valdosta-Jacksonville. This is an all NorfolK Southern routing and has excellent track with much lighter traffic. It would also offer a choice to people held captive by I-75 which carrys MUCH MORE traffic then I-95 does.


This was once a very popular route and could be a great choice for HSR.


Here is the Royal Palm leaving southbound on the FEC in downtown Jacksonville around the time I was born...


Here is the Royal Palm as I knew her.


OCKLAWAHA

[JeffreyS]

Here is the HSR line that is happening that jax should be concerned with.

[dougskiles]

Seeing this makes me wonder if we shouldn't try to align ourselves more with the mid-atlantic than the rest of Florida.  From an economic standpoint.  No facts, research, educated opinion to back this up - just a thought popping into my simple brain.

[tufsu1]

for comparison, the Tier II EIS for Tampa-Orlando HSR was first finished in 2004....and then updated in 2010.

Tier I study for Orlando-Miami is now underway

[JeffreyS]

In comparison the Southeast HSR wants to include Jacksonville even if it is long term. The Florida HSR thinks Jacksonville can take a flying leap.  So the comparison adds up to me as SEHSR interesting Florida HSR why should I care.