America 2050 ranks Tampa-Orlando HSR High

[FayeforCure]

Just as we all know, the
Tampa-Orlando-Jacksonville route
Tampa-Orlando-Miami route and
Jacksonville-Miami route

score high!!

See map here:
http://dc.streetsblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/railbest.jpg

Perhaps it goes without saying, but when you’re advocating for something, it’s not enough to make it happen â€" it has to succeed. If you get what you want and it’s a miserable failure, you’ve made matters far worse for your cause.

That’s the quandary some high speed rail advocates find themselves in now. Some ardent rail supporters have recently found themselves in the awkward position of arguing against the proposed Florida line, for example, fearing that such a line is doomed to low ridership.

But which corridors would be destined for success? America 2050, a nonprofit that advocates for infrastructure investment to prepare for future population growth, has provided a new tool for advocates who want to make sure they’re pushing projects with the best potential to succeed. Its new report, “High Speed Rail in America” [PDF], could help guide the process of expanding rail in the future.

America 2050, as an organization, focuses on what it calls “megaregions” â€" defined as “large networks of metropolitan areas” â€" where it expects the most population growth to take place. This research focuses on those megaregions as the places with the greatest likelihood for high levels of ridership.

Here’s what the report authors found:

• High-speed rail works in very specific conditions, primarily in corridors of approximately 100â€"600 miles in length where it can connect major employment centers and population hubs. Such corridors exist primarily in the nation’s 11 megaregions, where over 70 percent of the nation’s population and productivity is concentrated.

• Some of the best opportunities for attracting ridership are in corridors of less than 150 miles, such as New York-Philadelphia, Los Angeles-San Diego, and Chicago-Milwaukee.

• Very large cities are potentially powerful generators of rail ridership. The presence of a very large city on a corridor with medium-size and smaller cities has greater impact than connecting medium cities of the same size for generating ridership.

• Composition of the workforce within a metro region may have significant implications on regional intercity travel. People who work in knowledge industries, such as those in the financial sector, tend to travel more for business than those in industrial sectors.

See the table to the right for America 2050’s predictions for the best chances for high speed rail success. Not surprisingly, short, medium, and long corridors in the country’s primary megaregions fare the best. And that Florida line? It ranks well, but not at the top.

http://dc.streetsblog.org/2011/01/12/high-speed-rail-which-corridors-have-the-best-chance-for-success/

[FayeforCure]

Oh, actually this may be THE most important comment America2050 makes re HSR in Florida:

close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

No wonder all these private companies are willing to risk their capital on construction (10% matching private funds to 90% federal funds) and operation of HSR in Florida!!!

It's like getting HSR for free!!

Lets see how backward Rick Scott will be to this obvious benefit to Florida.

This week Associated Industries of Florida, a powerful business lobby not known to be populated by many liberals, fired back. Its president pledged to launch a support group to get the private investment to match the federal stimulus money that will pay for 90 percent of the estimated cost of building the Tampa-Orlando link.

http://county.blogs.theledger.com/11618/high-speed-rail-at-crucial-juncture/

[tufsu1]

btw Faye...AIF is dominated by Republicans 

[Ocklawaha]

Perhaps it goes without saying, but when you’re advocating for something, it’s not enough to make it happen â€" it has to succeed. If you get what you want and it’s a miserable failure, you’ve made matters far worse for your cause.

That’s the quandary some high speed rail advocates find themselves in now. Some ardent rail supporters have recently found themselves in the awkward position of arguing against the proposed Florida line, for example, fearing that such a line is doomed to low ridership.

Wow, I wonder who they are talking about?

+ 1

OCKLAWAHA

[FayeforCure]

btw Faye...AIF is dominated by Republicans  

Sure, industry has long loved government funded projects.

A huge number of government hand-outs are to defense industry contractors for example. It is well-known that defense contractors are keen on defrauding the government. Something Rick Scott knows all too well about too.

Bravo to AIF though for daring to speak out against the likes of the Conservative/Libertarian Reason Foundation!!!

[tufsu1]

btw Faye...AIF is dominated by Republicans 

Sure, industry has long loved government funded projects.

so are you saying that some Republicans might not be opposd to rail after all?

[FayeforCure]

btw Faye...AIF is dominated by Republicans 

Sure, industry has long loved government funded projects.

so are you saying that some Republicans might not be opposd to rail after all?

Tfsu1, tufsu1, you can always quote me a relative handful of Republicans who support rail, that doesn't take away from the fact that we are having to fight tooth and nail to get the other 95%+ of Republicans to stop obstructing rail.

[simms3]

I think the way to get your average Republican on board with rail is to present rail as an investment that will spur business and boost employment/income/tourism/the tax base.  Most Republicans, and most people for that matter, don't have the right numbers in front of them and they don't have people pitching rail the way it should be pitched.  The media, even in support of rail, does not know how to sell it to the average taxpayer.  Also, there have been some boondoggle rail projects that were wastes of money, and those always get attention and leave sour tastes in people's mouths.

Most people do not have the privilege of taking even basic college courses on urban transportation, so most people don't even know that much about roadways or freight movement.  It all comes down to properly educating the public without leaving them feeling like they have been belittled or that their concerns (which are all legitimate I might add) have been neglected.

And not all rail is the same.  HSR has not had any proven successes in this country and it's very expensive.  It's a huge gamble of an investment for the taxpayers.  What works in other countries often won't work here, and vice versa.

Let's pose it this way.  If FL taxpayers had to foot the entire bill for the FL HSR rather than all taxpayers in this country, would you still be for it knowing that years and years and billions of dollars later it might still not be in Jacksonville?

[Ocklawaha]

Most people do not have the privilege of taking even basic college courses on urban transportation, so most people don't even know that much about roadways or freight movement.  It all comes down to properly educating the public without leaving them feeling like they have been belittled or that their concerns (which are all legitimate I might add) have been neglected.

Simms makes an extremely important point here.

AMEN! AND AMEN! Point by point one of the best worded posts I've seen in a long time.

OCKLAWAHA

[Ocklawaha]

I created this little depot just for you TU, I figure you and Faye and all the other locals that will use this train will fit nicely inside... Perhaps with enough room left over for a small dog and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir!
Oop's something is wrong with my picture, WHERE'S THE TRAIN!

close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

There is a problem in these figures as well, even if the "system' generates 2.4 million visitors between OIA and MICKEY, what is going to drive the balance of the railroad? In other words we could spend x to build a railroad from Jacksonville to Miami, we could even build studies to prove we'll get xx number of passengers a year. But if our passengers are only traveling from Jacksonville to Bayard, that leaves a whole bunch of railroad with no visible means of support. Remember fares are based on mileage, so a short haul is way less profitable then a long haul, on a per ticket sold basis.

In spite of the claim that our new HSR line will be connected to the state railroad grid, it really won't be. One would have to transfer from an Amtrak Train in downtown Orlando, to a Sun Rail train then transfer again to the HSR train. By the time you could accomplish this even with the best of connections, that Amtrak train will already be in Tampa! What if 100% of the Orlando rail passengers rode the HSR all the way to Tampa... The number? 159,533 FY 2010 Amtrak boardings AND alightings in Orlando. Let's toss in every passenger in Lakeland and the Tampa area... this adds only 43,168 from Lakeland and 131,054 from Tampa. The way I calculate math, that's somewhat short of 2.4 million.  I'll agree with any of you that some people might ride the train for the experience, call it the "DISNEY EFFECT," but after the new wears off the SKYWAY I mean railway, who rides then? The better question is how many of the 170,000 or so motor coaches and tour operators are going to volunteer to cashier their business for a flying train option? Uh? About as many as give it up for AMTRAK! (NONE!)

Of course they don't expect 5 people to transfer from Amtrak to HSR, our HSR will be a transportation island cut off from all connections except those on rubber tires and/or wings. To me the moral of the story is every year some 35 million passengers fly into and out of Orlando, only about 3 million of these are "international passengers." Assuming that 16.5 million +/- are currently arriving, and an equal number departing each year and oddly enough, NOBODY is walking, They all have already made their transportation arrangements. People arriving in Orlando are picked up by "aunt Sue", many leave in private or rented automobiles, others have purchased a theme park or cruise package that invariably INCLUDES all transportation.So where do these 2.4 million HSR passengers come from?  Since only 5.2% of all commuters in the State of Florida use public transit - INCLUDING taxi's, the daily commute in ALL cities is under 200,000. 


OKAY YOU RAILROADERS, here is my signal to Florida HSR... Can you read it?

So less then a quarter million commuters on mass transit statewide daily...
Roughly 16.5 million passengers deplane in OIA yearly...
All of them - 99% or more - ALREADY HAVE TRANSPORTATION ARRANGEMENTS...
No private company is going to sacrifice their tour or transportation business for this train...
333,755 passengers a year ride the train into or out of all three HSR cities COMBINED...

ANSWER?

IT WON'T FLY WILBUR!

It really doesn't matter if all of those Euro Corporations together come to sell us Yugo's or Alfa's, if the numbers aren't here, they will go the way of YUGO AND ALFA ROMEO...



Solution?

SLASH THE COSTS AND SPREAD THE SYSTEM STATEWIDE TO START, AND DO IT IN INCREMENTS

OCKLAWAHA

[blandman]

Ock,

Is it true that train ticket prices are only based on mileage? And short haul tickets are "way less profitable" than long haul?  I find that hard to believe.  Adding up a bunch of one-way short haul tickets always seems to be more expensive than one long haul ticket covering the same distance (ex., Philadelphia to Wilmington = $25, Wilmington to D.C. = $44; Philadelphia to D.C. = $47...all tickets quoted are for the same train tomorrow morning).  Is HSR different?  Can you explain?

[Ocklawaha]

It's true, what you are seeing is a result of a formula that allows a premium on the shorter trips but far short of covering their true costs. For example a ticket from Jacksonville to Orlando might have been $5.00 while a fare to Orange Park far less then 1/5 of the way, might have been $1.00. That same dollar would hold true until you reached the 20 mile point when it would shift upward on miles. Usually that first few miles have some sort of percentage hung on them as a service charge but that can't be much higher then local transit on short hauls or you shoot yourself in the foot.

For example -

Jacksonville to South Jacksonville - $3.00 by Amtrak
Jacksonville to South Jacksonville - $1.00 by JTA
The same competition will be in store for a bullet train down I-4 which is why many railroad industry insiders are saying, "Too damn short, and will fail BEFORE it ever get's extended (al la Skyway).


There are variations of this, but the bottom line here is even on a railroad that runs from Jacksonville to Orlando, if all of your traffic is only to Orange Park. Where it crashes is that the crew running to Orange Park is still making a full day's pay, and that $3 million dollar locomotive and those $1 million dollar passenger cars (all 10 of them) and all of that track won't soon be paid off at a dollar a shot.   

Bottom line is we (as in all of the America's) need high or higher speed passenger trains, but our position is so precarious (as friend Faye points out politically) that a single failure will bring down the house. Where would YOU build the first line? As Faye's article points out we (Florida) do NOT have the best project, perhaps we are only the better project for which the industry will commit seppuku. So what's your choice? Orlando to Tampa or Washington to New York? San Francisco - Los Angeles? Chicago - St. Louis? Seattle - Portland? Dallas - Houston? Charlotte - Washington? See what I mean?  This game is a MUST WIN.


OCKLAWAHA

[blandman]

Ock,

Thanks for the reply...your posts are very informative!  The America 2050 report is very interesting...it seems like NYC-PHL-DC is the obvious place to start investing (heavily).  I live in Philly and love taking the train to NYC or D.C., but on short notice the Bolt/Megabus alternative is much cheaper, especially considering the train is currently only marginally faster.  However, if it took less than an hour to get to NYC, it would be worth the price.  Commuting daily would even be fairly painless.

I agree that if the Central FL corridor is built, costs $billions, and never attracts the riders it could hurt other projects.  But, once it's built it could be extended.  The Skyway hasn't exactly failed...it's still operating.  Perhaps the route is woefully inadequate, but it still operates, and can still be extended.  I guess like the current administration I'm so desperate to see real HSR in the States, that if FL is the most prepared, I say go for it.

[yapp1850]

hey ock if the state did upgrade csx track but rick scott said if it cost any money to the state to operate it,  the train is dead.

[Ocklawaha]

I agree that if the Central FL corridor is built, costs $billions, and never attracts the riders it could hurt other projects.  But, once it's built it could be extended.  The Skyway hasn't exactly failed...it's still operating.  Perhaps the route is woefully inadequate, but it still operates, and can still be extended.  I guess like the current administration I'm so desperate to see real HSR in the States, that if FL is the most prepared, I say go for it.

The onrushing catastrophe that is Florida High Speed Rail will, I predict, duplicate the performance of the Skyway. After an initial rush to ride, those 2.4 million riders will be slashed to 1.5, 1, .5 and if private money is involved then SPLAT - the lawsuits against the State (US) will began. If this happens that Miami leg will be stillborn - dead on arrival or at best another "Cross-Florida Barge Canal." Another dead half finished project to scar our beautiful state.  (Ironically that damn canal was the first big federal program that I fought... and obtained a nickname from, "Ocklawaha".) 

The conventional railroad, upgraded to eliminate crossings, and add capacity, would involve much less money and the accompanying risk. The Talgo train has already been proven to make the Orlando-Tampa run in 90 minutes at a cost that is a fraction of the I-4 route to nowhere. Consider this means our government is spending, $3.2 billion dollars to save less then 5% of all travelers 40 minutes of ride time. Worse still with travel 23 minutes to a poorly located airport plus airport parking, and a 30 minute average wait for trains that run hourly that 40 minutes saved becomes around 113-115 minutes spent in ADDITION to ride time - LONGER then it would take the Talgo on regular track from downtown to downtown to stations already in use.  Figured that way the $3.2 billion would have been better spent teaching South African Men How to Wash Their Genitalia. (A recent study which by the way we funded (NIH) to the tune of $823,200, so clean South Africa's males in their citrus groves could compete with Florida Oranges). IMAGINE, we blow $3.2 billion dollars so you can leave Orlando Airport and arrive in Tampa 25 minutes later then the Talgo could do it TODAY... or just 15 minutes faster then the current Amtrak schedule. HSR ticket = $30 dollars one way, AMTRAK ticket = $10 dollars ROUND TRIP. *[1]

Europe and the Orient? Germany, France, United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, and Austria spent "a combined total of $42 billion annually on their national passenger railroads."*[2] Meanwhile the US spent just $56 billion on all modes (fy 2006)

Europe has a railroad passenger ridership of between 8-10%, so using the above figures the EU spent as much to operate their fantastic trains for just 10% of their population then we spent for all transportation modes. That doesn't exactly sound like an attractive "profit," to me.

Want to REALLY freak out? Short haul passenger rail, under 100KM have a near ZERO market share in the EU. Germany for example as a short haul market of 1.3%. Well guess what Louie, Orlando to Tampa is 104.59KM. Imagine if Florida HSR get's as many passengers as Germany 1.3% of Floridians use the entire HSR system. *[3] (highly unlikely since we abandoned our passenger trains for all practical purposes about 50 years ago, while Germany built a completely new state-of-the-art rail system after we bombed them into the stone age).

In another report called EU-27, there is reference to a 6.1% market share of all European travel and even with HSR, ridership was in general decline from 1995-2007. In fact only two lines in the world actually "make a profit," as we understand it in general practice in the America's, Paris-Lyon FRANCE, and Tokyo-Osaka JAPAN. Here in Florida we just elected another governor in the JEB Bush, Askew, Martinez mold, how long will the next one stand for this sort of operational loss on this brand new toy railroad?

JAPAN? The results in Japan are worse then the EU, even though there is a profit in some of the lines operating today, not all of them are high speed rail. Starting in 1964, Japan rolled out a world model of high speed rail, continuous investment in the national high speed rail project brought down the house around Japans National Railway, Nippon Kokuyū Tetsudō. by 1980 the annual deficit had reached $20 billion and the NKT was issuing debit to cover all but $5 billion yearly. In 1987 when accumulated debt exceeded $300 billion, the government stepped in and privatized most of the railways into 9 companies. The railroad's were purchased at a fire sale price, and to sweeten the pot the government took most of that accumulated debt. (GOD I thought we had it bad in COLOMBIA! Hell we were amateurs.) Kick some of this information over to Rick Scott or our former cut taxes, wipe out spending governors and see how high it will fly. We can't afford to screw up HSR for EVERYONE.

yapp1850-Re: America 2050 ranks Tampa-Orlando HSR High>>Reply #14 on: Today at 06:38:00 PM »
hey ock if the state did upgrade csx track but rick scott said if it cost any money to the state to operate it,  the train is dead.

It would cost but the capital costs would be so much lower that the private companies wouldn't stand nearly as much risk, and chances are we could pay for the whole state system for the same amount these folks want to spend on Orlando-Tampa.

OCKLAWAHA


SOURCE:

*[1]   "President Obama, Vice President Biden to Announce $8 Billion for High-Speed Rail Projects Across the Country," U.S. Department of Transportation, January 28, 2010.

*[2]   "Public Funding Levels of European Passenger Railroads," April 22, 2008, p. 4, at http://www.amtrakoig.com/(S(rrrqumnhwybh1c55un4uujbo))/Reports/E-08-02-042208.PDF

*[3]   "Towards Passenger Intermodality in the EU" For the European Commission DG Energy and Transport. Inter-urban/long-distance passenger travel  PG I  http://ec.europa.eu/transport/intermodality/passenger/doc/report_3_en.pdf

[4]    Ron Kopicki and Louis S. Thompson, Best Methods of Railway Restructuring and Privatization, 2nd ed., The World Bank, Co financing and Financial Advisory Services, December 1997.

[5J   Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, Statistical Handbook of Japan 2009, p. 100, Table 9.1, at http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c09cont.htm