Can Downtown Survive?

[ChriswUfGator]

So let me get this right, On the basis of the largest property leased by cushman and wakefield being listed at 90% vacancy---in terms of real numbers, TUFSU ascertains this as proof that the vacancy rate for the company is 25% vacancy?

ok...let's try this again...

Cushman & Wakefield has a department that does market research throughout the world....that group has determined that the Jax. CBD vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2010 was 21.6%.

Cushman & Wakefield also has a brokerage department....that group manages/leases buildings thropughout the world...they apparently have some buildings in downtown Jax....one of which has a 90% vacancy rate.

Why is this so hard to understand?

It's hard to understand because C&W broke their statistics into regions of downtown Jacksonville, one of which is specifically the Northbank. Their statistic, as you've repeatedly stated, claims that the vacancy rate in that same small area is 25%. However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

This, to me, is the height of a misleading statistic. They've clearly created it using some type of trailing average, which no doubt takes into account the former occupancy of that very same now-vacant building, probably together with cherry picking stale-dated information from other buildings, to come up with a figure of 25% at a time they know that figure not to be accurate since they in fact manage premium office space in that same district, and their vacancy rate is actually 90%.

This is typical of the B.S. that people hide behind when they're defending the very same asinine policies that got us here in the first place.

[Captain Zissou]

Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.

[tufsu1]

It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.

I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.

[ChriswUfGator]

Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.

No doubt that is one of the trick ponys in Tufsu's typically misleading statistic, I'd be willing to bet money that the 25% figure includes the City and Federal buildings, which obviously would count as 100% occupancy, since they are single-tenant facilities.

Tufsu's Potemkin Villages are really becoming legendary...

[tufsu1]

However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?

[tufsu1]

Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.

I do not know...but here's the report....and remember, these aren't my numbers...they are from one of the most respected real estate services firm

http://www.cushwake.com/cwmbs1q10/PDF/off_jacksonville_1q10.pdf

[ChriswUfGator]

However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?

100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

As a case in point, that is twice as large as Cushman & Wakefield's next-largest listing in all of Duval County.

[BridgeTroll]

The numbers suck no matter which set you use... but while watching this from afar... Tufsu has cited figures from sources no one appears to believe.  Fair enough.  What sources and numbers is Chris citing?  Where do these numbers come from?

[tufsu1]

100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

not really....the downtown CBD as a whole has over 7.5 million square feet of office space...and as you noted, the AT&T building is over 1 million square feet of space...so are Modis and BOA....heck the 3-story office building I work in on the southside has over 80,000.

[ChriswUfGator]

The numbers suck no matter which set you use... but while watching this from afar... Tufsu has cited figures from sources no one appears to believe.  Fair enough.  What sources and numbers is Chris citing?  Where do these numbers come from?

LMAO, I cited to Cushman & Wakefield's own listings...(the same company Tufsu cited to)...

[tufsu1]

read the report guys

[BridgeTroll]

Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

[ChriswUfGator]

not really....as you noted, the AT&T building is over 1 million square feet of space...so are does Modis and BOA....heck the 3-story office building I work in on the southside has over 80,000

Actually, it is quite large.

And the AT&T building has 960k leaseable square feet, and is Jacksonville's largest building by square footage, so that makes a poor comparison. Like comparing your sailboat to the titanic.

As another case-in-point, then look at it this way...this single listing is equal to a full 1/2 of all of C&W's total leasing activity in all of Duval County for the entire first quarter. And this is just one building.

Sorry, but yeah, like I said, that's clearly quite large for this area....again just going by the same source you claim is the most respected real estate firm. So what's the deal here, C&W is an irrefutable source when you cite to them, but unbelievable when I cite to them?

[tufsu1]

Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

nope...I think they are both accurate...one is a listing for a signle buidling downtown...the other is a market research report on the entire Jax. office market

[BridgeTroll]

Thats cool... we often doubt others sources when making an argument.  I guess what I am missing is what yours and Chris's sources are that back up your claims and refute Tufsu's...