2010 Atlantic hurricane season

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Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2010.

* Alex
* Bonnie
* Colin
* Danielle
* Earl
* Fiona
* Gaston
* Hermine
* Igor
* Julia
* Karl
* Lisa
* Matthew
* Nicole
* Otto
* Paula
* Richard
* Shary
* Tomas
* Virginie
* Walter

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Philip J. Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University (formerly led by William M. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1. [1] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.

On December 9, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2010 season, predicting average to above-average activity (11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100-162), citing that the 2009-10 El Niño event is likely to dissipate by the start of the season.

[gatorback]

They just announced 0'10 will be more active.

The brutal winter is making way for massive hurricanes.

The 2010 hurricane season will be more active than the previous year with higher-than-normal threats to the U.S. coastline, according to early forecasts by AccuWeather.com meteorologists.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said chief forecaster Joe Bastardi. "There will be a lot more impact on the United States' shore."

He projected that seven storms will hit American land, five of which will be hurricanes - and two or three could be major.

He called for a total of 16 to 18 named storms - as many as double the nine storms during the 2009 season.

[buckethead]

We die?

[reednavy]

Just as a side note, the tropical system off Brazil is the first one since Catalina, in 2004.  We all know what happened that year. Not saying, but that season was also an exiting El Nino.

[gatorback]

I'm not liking this fact either as I remember 03 were an extremely wet winter as well...

NOAA’s State of the Climate report for the winter season and the month of February state that temperatures were below normal for the contiguous United States. The winter season was wetter than normal...

[samiam]

Haven't NOAA been predicting active hurricane seasons since 2006 and they have been wrong every year. 2005 was the last time they were correct

[Bostech]

Storms build due to heat of ocean,if we got colder year then it takes longer to heat up and that means less chance for hurricanes to develop.
I say we will have below average number of storms or they might be active out in Atlantic.

[gatorback]

Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season
As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.

At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms.

One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009. 6 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 â€" 16 named storms, 6 â€" 8 hurricanes, and 3 â€" 5 major hurricanes. 7 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer. 8 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed.

Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009.

NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010.


Earlier Warnings Issued This Year
The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths.

Looking Back to 2009
The 2009 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basic will close on November 30, 2009. There were two tropical depressions, six tropical storms, and three hurricanes. The hurricanes were Hurricane Bill (active Aug. 15-24), Hurricane Fred (active Sept. 7-12), and Hurricane Ida (active Nov. 4-9). The only two storms to strike the United States were Tropical Storm Claudette and Hurricane Ida.

The mild season can be attributed to El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. El Nino produces warm Pacific waters and upper level winds that discourage conditions favorable to hurricane formation.  Cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean also inhibited hurricane formation. The 2009 season was the mildest on record since 1997.

The potential danger of a mild hurricane season is that people in storm-prone areas may become complacent because they expect the next season to be just as uneventful. Hurricanes depend on weather conditions both near and far from where the storms hit. Because weather conditions will continue to change constantly, the immediate past hurricane record cannot be relied upon as a prediction for the next season.

Prior Incidents
Although hurricane forecasting is becoming more accurate, there is no computer model or formula to tell how many hurricanes will strike land during a particular season and how many of those which make landfall will be severe. For example, the 2004 season was devastating, with four severe hurricanes striking the U.S. causing loss of life and major property damage. In contrast, the 2009 season was relatively uneventful. The deadliest hurricane on record is the storm that struck and destroyed Galveston in 1901. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane, causing over $81 billion in damages.

Loss of life is the primary concern when a hurricane strikes. The death toll from a hurricane season depends on how many strong storms made landfall, the vulnerability of the affected area, and the level of preparedness. An estimated 750 individuals died during the 2008 hurricane season. 20 Pre-positioned medical supplies allow the injured to be treated more quickly when a hurricane is over. Preparedness and early response reduce the severity of injuries and the likelihood of fatalities.

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Yey!

NEW YORK, Apr 07, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Earlier today, Colorado State University's (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science issued an updated forecast of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. In 2010, CSU predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, and anticipates an above-average probability that major hurricanes will hit land in the U.S. and Caribbean. CSU's forecast is consistent with other 2010 forecasts.

Approximately 70 percent of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coastline. This population, as well as a significant number of physical assets, is exposed to risks associated with hurricanes and other named storms. At-risk industries include commercial real estate, hospitality, and public entities. (The energy industry is also vulnerable, but has managed prior catastrophes, such as Hurricane Ike, relatively well.)

Recent events--flooding in the northeast and earthquakes around the world--remind us that natural catastrophes have a compound effect on the property insurance market, affecting available capacity and pricing. It is prudent for risk managers to evaluate their exposures, measure potential losses, and take a number of pre- and post-loss measures to minimize a catastrophe's impact on their business, their suppliers, and their customers.

Specifically, Marsh recommends the following:

Pre-Loss Measures

-- Conduct catastrophe modeling, to evaluate potential financial losses.

-- Ensure proper compliance with building codes.

-- Develop and regularly update business continuity and disaster recovery plans and procedures.

-- Review supply chain management procedures to understand and minimize exposures related to suppliers.

-- Develop properly worded and tested claims procedures.

Post-Loss Measures

-- Arrange forensic accounting services to measure losses and prepare the financial metrics necessary to file a claim.

-- Secure the assistance of a claims advocate from an agent or broker to prepare and manage the presentation of claims to underwriters.

-- Secure preferred contractors to assist in necessary repairs following an event.

About Marsh

Marsh, the world's leading insurance broker and risk advisor, has over 23,000 employees and provides advice and transactional capabilities to clients in over 100 countries. Marsh is a unit of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), a global professional services firm with approximately 52,000 employees and annual revenue exceeding $10 billion. MMC also is the parent company of Guy Carpenter, the risk and reinsurance specialist; Kroll, the risk consulting firm; Mercer, the provider of HR and related financial advice and services; and Oliver Wyman, the management consultancy. MMC's stock (ticker symbol: MMC) is listed on the New York, Chicago and London stock exchanges. MMC's Web Site is www.mmc.com. Marsh's Web site is www.marsh.com.

[gatorback]

Get your picks for the 1st hurricane of the 2010 Season.

I'm on:

July 21, 2010 Alex

[reednavy]

Yay, we're on the revised 2004 list.

Revised as in retired names have been replaced.

[JeffreyS]

Storms build due to heat of ocean,if we got colder year then it takes longer to heat up and that means less chance for hurricanes to develop.
I say we will have below average number of storms or they might be active out in Atlantic.

No if the weather is colder it's worse unless it is warmer then it's worse. 

[reednavy]

Current sea surface temp anomalies have surpassed those of 2005, if that says anything.

[gatorback]

Anomalies in which direction? I remember in 04 and 05 there was a lot of flooding in the north east. I'm wondering if there is any correlation between warm sea surface temp and rain in the north east? I think 010 is going to very active and if you read above, the Prof. thinks so too.