Six shopping centers preparing to make a comeback
(http://photos.moderncities.com/Cities/Jacksonville/Development/Shopping-Centers/i-Hhz223K/0/f3d6092b/L/DSCF4655-L.jpg)
2018 could be the year of aging shopping centers making a comeback across Jacksonville. Here's six projects promising to breathe life into older inner ring suburban areas of Jacksonville.
Read More: https://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2018-jan-six-shopping-centers-preparing-to-make-a-comeback
I sense that there are many factors working against these aging shopping centers. When they were built, they were, in some respect, quasi-regional draws. Now, they can probably only pull patrons from nearby neighborhoods. Unless there's some brand new, compelling retailer that's new to the region that they can now sign up for their refurbished centers, these centers most likely need to be a fraction of their current sizes, unless a great deal more residential density is built in and around the centers. Also, there's probably just a lot less need for big box retail in the future.
Jax shopping centers don't age well at all. These strip centers are vast seas of parking lots with the stores themselves sitting deep in the lots and massive pole signs out front. With today's design and landscaping standards, will the brand new centers of 2017/2018 die much more gracefully?
This is good news. Not only visually, but is good for our local economy. I'm an Amazon Prime member who has spent a fortune over the years buying stuff I should have purchased locally. I plan to allow my Prime membership to expire and not renew. I have noticed the service and the quality of Amazon to tank lately. More and more the 2 day delivery is actually 3 or 4 days. When I do receive my orders more times than not if it's a heavy item, it's beat up and hanging out of the box. The items they sell that have an attractive price are absolute junk. I was a sucker long enough. I used the ratings to determine which item was best only to learn of "Fakespot", a website that checks the value of reviews. Many are fake. What happens when Amazon puts all the brick and mortar stores out of business? I plan to go back to buying local. I can see the item, check that it's undamaged, all the while helping our neighbors, our city, and ourselves.
Amazon isn't putting most brick and mortars out of business. Contrary to popular belief, the country saw a net +4,000 new store openings in 2017. For every chain that closed locations, another 2.7 are in expansion mode. The struggling chains making the headlines just happen to be well known traditional one-size-fits-all brands like Sears, Toys R Us and Macys. Others like ULTA, Dollar General, Ross, Aldi, etc. are growing like gangbusters. You'll most likely see most of these revamped centers end up with some of these chains as new tenants.
^Amazon's not helping, but it's not the only culprit. Many of the big chains are unprofitable for unrelated reasons. And groceries, restaurants and entertainment are growing. It's more a matter of the retail sector evolving to accommodate changes in buying habits and technology than anything.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 11:32:52 AM
Amazon isn't putting most brick and mortars out of business. Contrary to popular belief, the country saw a net +4,000 new store openings in 2017. For every chain that closed locations, another 2.7 are in expansion mode. The struggling chains making the headlines just happen to be well known traditional one-size-fits-all brands like Sears, Toys R Us and Macys. Others like ULTA, Dollar General, Ross, Aldi, etc. are growing like gangbusters. You'll most likely see most of these revamped centers end up with some of these chains as new tenants.
Can you please give us data and sources to back your post? I don't know where you got your info, but it goes 180 from what I've been reading. I'll gladly give you my sources. Barron's, CNN, Forbe's, the street, etc. Amazon is growing at a phenomenal rate also...Amazon's gross merchandise value (GMV) sales surpassed $48 billion in Q2, a $12+ billion or 34% increase YoY. Many stores have waited too long to fight back. Many of the stores/businesses that haven't been ran over by Amazon, are now being taken over by Amazon. They are just getting into the grocery game. Competition helps consumers more than the sizes of companies that sell to them. I worry that we may get into a situation where the only two stores we have to choose from will be Walmart and Amazon, until Amazon acquires Walmart.
Here's one from a few months back:
QuoteThe total net increase of stores for 2017 is 4,080, including retail and restaurants. Core retail segments will see a net gain of 1,326 stores, while table-service and fast-food restaurants are adding a net of 2,754 locations. In total, chains are opening a net 14,239 stores and closing 10,123 stores.
http://www.ihlservices.com/news/analyst-corner/2017/08/retailers-opening-over-4000-stores-in-2017/
Here's another: https://stores.org/2017/12/04/looking-forward/
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 03:25:50 PM
Here's one from a few months back:
QuoteThe total net increase of stores for 2017 is 4,080, including retail and restaurants. Core retail segments will see a net gain of 1,326 stores, while table-service and fast-food restaurants are adding a net of 2,754 locations. In total, chains are opening a net 14,239 stores and closing 10,123 stores.
http://www.ihlservices.com/news/analyst-corner/2017/08/retailers-opening-over-4000-stores-in-2017/
Here's another: https://stores.org/2017/12/04/looking-forward/
I'm not really including restaurants in my posts. I'm talking about Amazon and it's effects on retail. I agree, Amazon is not the end of the world. I blame myself and people who are too lazy and too indifferent to think about what is happening today. Stores aren't giving customers what they want, and customers are accepting trashy goods, indifferent service, and price to mean everything in their lives. I'm blaming the existing stores out there that are allowing amazon and others to take away, with little resistance, everything that we have known. I'm elderly, maybe I don't get it. I remember going to stores and having actual full time employees help me. I like to see and feel what I'm buying. I think stores need to wise up and fight. Look at the once big companies that were once held in high esteem, that have failed. Many I'm sure felt they were too big and too old to fail. They didn't innovate and are either gone or in trouble. Some examples: JC Penney, Sears, KMart, Xerox, Blockbuster, Borders, Polaroid, Winn-Dixie, Barnes and Noble. I'm not blaming only Amazon, but these companies who hired CEOs for millions of dollars and huge golden parachutes, to fight these newcomers with chintzy merchandise, and part time uncaring clerks, and little inovation. Home Depot, Lowe's, and Ace Hardware are fighting back and succeeding. I recently bought a TV from Best Buy instead of Amazon and I'm glad I did. I got to see the tv, took it home and knew if were defective I could return it to the store. I'm glad that maybe for just awhile BestBuy is going to make it. I just hope that some people who don't really think about the way things are going, will.
It's getting more difficult to totally separate them into different categories. A Chipotle can build out the same space as a T-Mobile in a retail center. A Cracker Barrel is a restaurant and a retailer. A craft brewery is a manufacturer and bar, restaurant, retailer, etc. This is the new market we now live in. Retailers that can't adjust to modern trends typically end up dying. Same goes with the restaurants. Applebees struggles but Metro Diner has lines out of the door and continues to expand.
Sears and KMart of today are simply the JM Fields and Zarye of yesterday. Winn-Dixie is simply the Pantry Pride and Pic N Save of the 1980s and early 1990s. On the other hand, a new crop of retailers and restaurants are doing many of the things you've mentioned and they happen to be the ones that are expanding now. Even Amazon has started to aggressively invest in brick and mortars now.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 04:54:44 PM
It's getting more difficult to totally separate them into different categories. A Chipotle can build out the same space as a T-Mobile in a retail center. A Cracker Barrel is a restaurant and a retailer. A craft brewery is a manufacturer and bar, restaurant, retailer, etc. This is the new market we now live in. Retailers that can't adjust to modern trends typically end up dying. Same goes with the restaurants. Applebees struggles but Metro Diner has lines out of the door and continues to expand.
Sears and KMart of today are simply the JM Fields and Zarye of yesterday. Winn-Dixie is simply the Pantry Pride and Pic N Save of the 1980s and early 1990s. On the other hand, a new crop of retailers and restaurants are doing many of the things you've mentioned and they happen to be the ones that are expanding now. Even Amazon has started to aggressively invest in brick and mortars now.
What is everyone doing with all the time they are saving? You order online, eat fast food, get food thru a drive-thru window, and buy only imported goods. I know what you are saying, it's that I think we don't think much of our choices. after all, thinking to so much of a hassle. If we send all of our money to Seattle or Bentonville, why should anyone expect a decent job in Jacksonville? Economics is really so simple. We do everything we can to try to disprove that for an economy to prosper, the people contributing and receiving from it, must be able to afford to purchase the goods and services available. We take for granted we have dismantled our ability to manufacture goods. We are dependent on others to produce goods we can afford. We are depending on others such as China for a great deal of investment in the US to stay afloat. We are our own worst enemy. My New Year's resolution is to buy local, purchase US goods when available, and shop at locally owned stores when possible. We are just helping the downfall of our society to do other wise. The last of American made appliances are quickly disappearing. GE appliance are now made by Chinese company Haier. Why, because American working families can't afford to buy our own goods. WE are almost entirely dependent on Asia for everything we buy. Allowing Amazon to help in this process is moronic. I hope these shopping centers thrive. Maybe someone will try an American-made store. I'd buy! I'm hearing we are even depending on Asia for our electronic components for weapon systems. Can anyone see the logic in that?
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 11:32:52 AM
Amazon isn't putting most brick and mortars out of business. Contrary to popular belief, the country saw a net +4,000 new store openings in 2017. For every chain that closed locations, another 2.7 are in expansion mode. The struggling chains making the headlines just happen to be well known traditional one-size-fits-all brands like Sears, Toys R Us and Macys. Others like ULTA, Dollar General, Ross, Aldi, etc. are growing like gangbusters. You'll most likely see most of these revamped centers end up with some of these chains as new tenants.
Amazon not necessarily putting brick-and-mortar RETAIL out of business, but it's dimming their prospects. There's still "growth" among brick-and-mortar retail, but the growth is decelerating, and the gap between brick-and-mortar retail and Amazon is widening. It's safe to assume that the brick-and-mortar that survive will survive because they create a robust digital presence and become online firms to adapt to changing consumer behavior. Some select retail products may escape this trend, but people want to shop online and real estate strategies focused on big box retail are and will continue to struggle, if the current trend persists.
Amazon versus Costco Anecdote:
An Amazon Prime member for about five years, she found herself rarely going to Costco and instead using the free shipping and subscription services to stock up on household necessities, making her membership to the warehouse club somewhat of a waste. "I'd rather pay a little more for paper towels right to my door than have to deal with the Costco parking lot," Blum said.
The debate between Costco and Amazon is in many ways defined by cultural and generational differences. People who have both memberships earn roughly 20% more than people with just one or the other and nearly 73% more than people who are not members of either program, according to a recent study published in the Journal of Shopper Research.
Preferences for one over the other also vary with age. "People who subscribe to Amazon Prime were more tech-savvy and tend to be a bit younger, while seniors were more likely to be a Costco," said Steve Koppitsch, a marketing professor at Bowling Green State University and a co-author of the study.
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 29, 2018, 05:40:16 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 04:54:44 PM
It's getting more difficult to totally separate them into different categories. A Chipotle can build out the same space as a T-Mobile in a retail center. A Cracker Barrel is a restaurant and a retailer. A craft brewery is a manufacturer and bar, restaurant, retailer, etc. This is the new market we now live in. Retailers that can't adjust to modern trends typically end up dying. Same goes with the restaurants. Applebees struggles but Metro Diner has lines out of the door and continues to expand.
Sears and KMart of today are simply the JM Fields and Zarye of yesterday. Winn-Dixie is simply the Pantry Pride and Pic N Save of the 1980s and early 1990s. On the other hand, a new crop of retailers and restaurants are doing many of the things you've mentioned and they happen to be the ones that are expanding now. Even Amazon has started to aggressively invest in brick and mortars now.
What is everyone doing with all the time they are saving? You order online, eat fast food, get food thru a drive-thru window, and buy only imported goods. I know what you are saying, it's that I think we don't think much of our choices. after all, thinking to so much of a hassle. If we send all of our money to Seattle or Bentonville, why should anyone expect a decent job in Jacksonville? Economics is really so simple. We do everything we can to try to disprove that for an economy to prosper, the people contributing and receiving from it, must be able to afford to purchase the goods and services available. We take for granted we have dismantled our ability to manufacture goods. We are dependent on others to produce goods we can afford. We are depending on others such as China for a great deal of investment in the US to stay afloat. We are our own worst enemy. My New Year's resolution is to buy local, purchase US goods when available, and shop at locally owned stores when possible. We are just helping the downfall of our society to do other wise. The last of American made appliances are quickly disappearing. GE appliance are now made by Chinese company Haier. Why, because American working families can't afford to buy our own goods. WE are almost entirely dependent on Asia for everything we buy. Allowing Amazon to help in this process is moronic. I hope these shopping centers thrive. Maybe someone will try an American-made store. I'd buy! I'm hearing we are even depending on Asia for our electronic components for weapon systems. Can anyone see the logic in that?
So it seems that the problem is less that of business itself, but more of American consumers demanding cheap products, and the resulting race to the bottom in response to those demands. Sure, we could say tomorrow that we're not buying anything from Chinese factories anymore, or we're not buying produce made by Mexican migrants. But nobody wants to deal with the massively increased prices that come with those changes, and nobody wants the undesirable work those people do to prop up the western economy.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 29, 2018, 07:46:27 PM
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 29, 2018, 05:40:16 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 29, 2018, 04:54:44 PM
It's getting more difficult to totally separate them into different categories. A Chipotle can build out the same space as a T-Mobile in a retail center. A Cracker Barrel is a restaurant and a retailer. A craft brewery is a manufacturer and bar, restaurant, retailer, etc. This is the new market we now live in. Retailers that can't adjust to modern trends typically end up dying. Same goes with the restaurants. Applebees struggles but Metro Diner has lines out of the door and continues to expand.
Sears and KMart of today are simply the JM Fields and Zarye of yesterday. Winn-Dixie is simply the Pantry Pride and Pic N Save of the 1980s and early 1990s. On the other hand, a new crop of retailers and restaurants are doing many of the things you've mentioned and they happen to be the ones that are expanding now. Even Amazon has started to aggressively invest in brick and mortars now.
What is everyone doing with all the time they are saving? You order online, eat fast food, get food thru a drive-thru window, and buy only imported goods. I know what you are saying, it's that I think we don't think much of our choices. after all, thinking to so much of a hassle. If we send all of our money to Seattle or Bentonville, why should anyone expect a decent job in Jacksonville? Economics is really so simple. We do everything we can to try to disprove that for an economy to prosper, the people contributing and receiving from it, must be able to afford to purchase the goods and services available. We take for granted we have dismantled our ability to manufacture goods. We are dependent on others to produce goods we can afford. We are depending on others such as China for a great deal of investment in the US to stay afloat. We are our own worst enemy. My New Year's resolution is to buy local, purchase US goods when available, and shop at locally owned stores when possible. We are just helping the downfall of our society to do other wise. The last of American made appliances are quickly disappearing. GE appliance are now made by Chinese company Haier. Why, because American working families can't afford to buy our own goods. WE are almost entirely dependent on Asia for everything we buy. Allowing Amazon to help in this process is moronic. I hope these shopping centers thrive. Maybe someone will try an American-made store. I'd buy! I'm hearing we are even depending on Asia for our electronic components for weapon systems. Can anyone see the logic in that?
So it seems that the problem is less that of business itself, but more of American consumers demanding cheap products, and the resulting race to the bottom in response to those demands. Sure, we could say tomorrow that we're not buying anything from Chinese factories anymore, or we're not buying produce made by Mexican migrants. But nobody wants to deal with the massively increased prices that come with those changes, and nobody wants the undesirable work those people do to prop up the western economy.
I don't believe "American consumers are demanding cheap products", they have to due to being under paid in an advanced society. What we are getting today is not what the average worker wants. It all started with big business not wanting their profits diminished by paying a wage that would keep our economy going. Instead of paying wages that allowed citizens to earn a wage that would let them buy the goods they produced, they artificially sent raw goods to be assembled overseas. Good for the bigwigs, bad for the workers. It seemed so easy to begin with. Much greater profits, no worries about ruining the environment, no healthcare costs, no vacations or holiday pay, etc. We are idiots. We wonder why we have cheap imported products when we used to have the best of everything, but we allowed it. Now it's coming home to roost. How can an American family earning minimum wage ever be able to pay for healthcare? A single visit to a family doctor is probably half a week's gross salary. How can the same family afford to buy what they used to create? Our priorities are completely screwed-up. We don't want to help people with their health, but we want to spend $25 billion on a wall to keep foreigners from coming in to see the healthcare professionals they used to see for next to nothing? Wouldn't that $25 billion help train a lot of American doctors or nurses? We are living in a huge Ponzi system. The 1% of the population that controls over 80% of all the wealth doesn't need to care. When the Chinese are fed up and unable to afford their Chinese economy, these Ponzists will move on to Africa and exploit them. When will we learn?
Uh... this is a bit of an intense conversation to be having in a thread about shopping centers, but to answer your question, it really has to come down to the people, their education, and the way they consume media and the ideas that are transferred in the process.
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 29, 2018, 10:31:40 PM
How can an American family earning minimum wage ever be able to pay for healthcare?
It should be by that American family, plus the millions of others, paying taxes, and our effective elected leaders directing those taxes towards a streamlined single-payer healthcare plan that just covers everyone. But people look at the lines in other countries and decide to act like the millions of people who couldn't afford healthcare before then choosing to take advantage of it is a bad thing.
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 29, 2018, 10:31:40 PM
We don't want to help people with their health, but we want to spend $25 billion on a wall to keep foreigners from coming in to see the healthcare professionals they used to see for next to nothing? Wouldn't that $25 billion help train a lot of American doctors or nurses?
It would. $25 billion is more than we spend on our entire space program per year. Also, the $18 billion figure quoted by the administration only accounts for about ~700 miles of a ~2000 mile wall. So the whole thing would likely be upwards of $50 billion. Plus, since we decide that instead of listening to our Declaration of Independence where "life" is the first of our unalienable rights that governments are formed to protect, healthcare should be a business and not a service, we just let our education system wither under the guise of "school choice."
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 29, 2018, 10:31:40 PM
The 1% of the population that controls over 80% of all the wealth doesn't need to care. When the Chinese are fed up and unable to afford their Chinese economy, these Ponzists will move on to Africa and exploit them. When will we learn?
But you can't tax them! We
could be rich one day! And then
we would be the ones being taxed! That would be horrible!
Anyway, like I said, fixing this mess has to start with education. You can't let people be insulated from ideas, through their own media sources or their own social circles. Exposure to the truth of our situation has to be step 1. Those people have to be engaged in the issues, and be willing to act on them.
Nice points Marcus. I realize I've strayed from the original topic of shopping centers, but it's all connected. I suppose we should start an economic thread. Cheers
Tying all of this back to the original topic, these shopping center investments represent an era where developers and banks believe they can still be viable places for retail. They are a local indicator that brick and mortars aren't going anywhere. They also represent a change in the market from traditional one-size-fits-all big box retail to newer retail prototypes. Just take a look at the Boulevard Crossing redevelopment plan. Instead of the Kmart big box, it's being replaced with smaller spaces that are closer to the street, along with restaurant outparcels. Same goes for Westside Plaza. The redeveloped center will have the same amount of space as the existing center. However, the spaces will be smaller to accommodate smaller retail formats as opposed to the Home Depot that used to be there.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 07:29:55 AM
Tying all of this back to the original topic, these shopping center investments represent an era where developers and banks believe they can still be viable places for retail. They are a local indicator that brick and mortars aren't going anywhere. They also represent a change in the market from traditional one-size-fits-all big box retail to newer retail prototypes. Just take a look at the Boulevard Crossing redevelopment plan. Instead of the Kmart big box, it's being replaced with smaller spaces that are closer to the street, along with restaurant outparcels. Same goes for Westside Plaza. The redeveloped center will have the same amount of space as the existing center. However, the spaces will be smaller to accommodate smaller retail formats as opposed to the Home Depot that used to be there.
I don't think anyone said brick and mortar are going away - we all live in such structures. The point was that traditional big box brick and mortar RETAIL is facing major challenges, and hopefully the Jax Zoning Code gives developers the freedom to quickly adapt to the new, required formats, and hopefully there are design standards to prevent these real estate transitions from being hideous detractors from surrounding residential neighborhoods.
Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry. If anything, it shows the value of COJ's mobility plan and mobility fee. By redeveloping these existing sites, developers are improving established blighted commercial corridors and being rewarded with mobility fee credits, as opposed to traditional sprawl type growth. So perhaps we should be saying kudos to COJ in this particular case.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 09:16:32 AM
Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry.
And it needs to evolve. I think that big shopping centers are dying for a reason. Its a pain in the ass. I would much rather go to a CompUsa or Best Buy than buy electronics on Amazon. But it is such a nightmare to get into the SJTC and when you get in the store, there is no one to help you, so I just don't do it. I would much prefer the way it was... small shops with knowledgeable employees who can actually help you with your decision making.
Now you have to fight a ton of traffic to go to a huge store full of crap that may or may not be what you want and an employee who doesn't want to be there talking to you about a product they know nothing about. The "mom and pop" stores of the past had employees (or probably the owners) who were passionate about the products in the store.
Even if I have to make several stops to buy what I need, its fine. At SJTC you have to get back in your car to go to the next big box because they are so far apart anyway.
The main center of the town center where the apple store etc is... that would my ideal shopping center, if that is all that was there, and if the stores were mostly local shops. But its in the middle of a traffic war zone so I don't go anywhere near the town center.
So until things improve, Amazon it is for me.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 09:16:32 AM
Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry. If anything, it shows the value of COJ's mobility plan and mobility fee. By redeveloping these existing sites, developers are improving established blighted commercial corridors and being rewarded with mobility fee credits, as opposed to traditional sprawl type growth. So perhaps we should be saying kudos to COJ in this particular case.
Actually, I think many of Jax's commercial corridors look like garbage - a visual onslaught - no wonder surrounding neighborhoods often fight mixed use developments. Rarely do I see functional walkability encouraged or incorporated into designs. It's a pole sign, power line, parking lot soup with paltry landscaping...and the clustering of commercial uses without walkability makes for an unnecessary war with auto-congestion. And yes, brick-and-mortar retail is evolving, but nationally, it is shrinking. Having said that, I don't really know really know what we're debating. Almost like debating for debating's Sake. I think we're all happy that developers are planning to do something with these shopping center wastelands, but some of them have been detractors from the neighborhoods for a generation, and maybe there's a way for Jax to stimulate infill and revitalization with much quicker turnarounds.
Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 11:26:12 AM
Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.
Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses. It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces. But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor. As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that? And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard. Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere. Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.
Quote from: jaxnyc79 on January 30, 2018, 11:37:47 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 11:26:12 AM
Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.
Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses. It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces. But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor. As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that? And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard. Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere. Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.
Correct. I don't think Ennis is saying there's no "retail apocalypse", just that the sector is evolving and it's not all doom and gloom. Especially when you take into account food and bars, which are growing.
Quote from: jaxnyc79 on January 30, 2018, 11:37:47 AM
Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses. It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.
It appears we're talking about two different things. Brick and mortar retail is growing nationally despite the growth of e-commerce. That part has nothing to do with Jax. Sprawl and aesthetics is another story altogether nationally as well. Some municipalities are getting better at improving their land development form but that doesn't have much to do with national retail development trends. With that said, regardless of what happens in Nocatee (that's another county that Jax has no control over) for the first time in a while locally, several large strip malls left for decade are in the process of being redeveloped and they're plans don't involve these spaces being filled with Goodwill and low rent storefront churches.
QuoteBut if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.
Who needs ten story department stores these days? Sprawl and the automobile changed that need decades ago. I'm actually not sure if even retail square footage is shrinking. The average store may be smaller but there are a lot more of them, then they were in the days of downtowns being the retail epicenter of our cities. I'd think we'd need some statistical data to better confirm or deny this assumption.
Financially speaking, a retailer would be better off building a huge distribution center on cheap property to serve several locations than each retail location also acting as its own warehouse stocking up on inventory it may not be able to move. Sure being able to sell your product online helps with this but its also a better use of real estate.
QuoteAs for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that? And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard. Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere. Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.
I'm agreeing that blighted retail corridors have looked like garbage for over 50 years. I just don't see how that applies to stuff being redeveloped now or how a 50 year local land development form can be currently related to today's retail development trends. It seems that they are two separate issues. One is a national evolution of an industry. The other deals with local zoning and aesthetics.
Quote from: Tacachale on January 30, 2018, 11:59:46 AM
Correct. I don't think Ennis is saying there's no "retail apocalypse", just that the sector is evolving and it's not all doom and gloom. Especially when you take into account food and bars, which are growing.
I'm saying there is no retail apocalypse. The industry is simply evolving. With that said, yes a lot of traditional names we're familiar with won't survive long term. However, they'll be replaced with a new crop of retailers built and design to meet the demands of the populations they serve. In a way, this is no different from places like Kress and McCrory's being eliminated by category killer big boxes back during the late 20th century.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 30, 2018, 12:09:58 PM
Quote from: jaxnyc79 on January 30, 2018, 11:37:47 AM
Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses. It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.
It appears we're talking about two different things. Brick and mortar retail is growing nationally despite the growth of e-commerce. That part has nothing to do with Jax. Sprawl and aesthetics is another story altogether nationally as well. Some municipalities are getting better at improving their land development form but that doesn't have much to do with national retail development trends. With that said, regardless of what happens in Nocatee (that's another county that Jax has no control over) for the first time in a while locally, several large strip malls left for decade are in the process of being redeveloped and they're plans don't involve these spaces being filled with Goodwill and low rent storefront churches.
QuoteBut if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.
Who needs ten story department stores these days? Sprawl and the automobile changed that need decades ago. I'm actually not sure if even retail square footage is shrinking. The average store may be smaller but there are a lot more of them, then they were in the days of downtowns being the retail epicenter of our cities. I'd think we'd need some statistical data to better confirm or deny this assumption.
Financially speaking, a retailer would be better off building a huge distribution center on cheap property to serve several locations than each retail location also acting as its own warehouse stocking up on inventory it may not be able to move. Sure being able to sell your product online helps with this but its also a better use of real estate.
QuoteAs for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that? And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard. Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere. Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.
I'm agreeing that blighted retail corridors have looked like garbage for over 50 years. I just don't see how that applies to stuff being redeveloped now or how a 50 year local land development form can be currently related to today's retail development trends. It seems that they are two separate issues. One is a national evolution of an industry. The other deals with local zoning and aesthetics.
This started out with me questioning the shopping center redevelopments. I hope for the best, but I think they are redeveloping in the face of headwinds. My concern is that a place like the shopping center on Ramona Blvd (??), being surrounded by low-density residential, lacks enough surrounding demand to be remade into a thriving, robust, and aesthetically pleasing contributor to the Jax landscape. Without more infill residential density in the immediate vicinity, I just don't know if that property will see its optimal use whilst intended for retail. It would be nice if these make-overs incorporated functional walkability, some sort of public green space, and a dense residential component, while also seeing a refurbishment of retail spaces. Is zoning preventing this from happening? Do such dense mixed-use proposals face opposition from neighborhoods over traffic and parking? I just can't imagine that not working in Jax.
I believe that retail is not evolving due to demands from the consumer totally. That might have a bit truth, but what we're seeing is mostly the results of greed. It's not to appease the consumer, it's the result of the 1% refusing to let go of their entitled slice of pie, which is almost the entire pie. We allowed it to happen for decades when it was small items such as socks, shoes, shirts, and toys. Now, it's refrigerators, central A/C, and well, everything. What we're seeing in retail is churning. Stores closing and being replaced by others isn't progress, it's pathetic. The Chinese economy is going to change and we'll get into even more trouble when the Asian labor force refuses to live in unheated huts and on boats. It's happening now. Only due to communists being in power has new Chinese purchasing power been kept in check. It won't be forever. Instead of doing the right thing, we'll just look for another continent to exploit. The only thing that has saved us is that this process is taking awhile. In the mean time, we are selling our souls to the devil. China is buying-up our real estate, buying our bonds, and unloading cheap goods below their costs to keep this going. It's true. Education is essential to solve our problems. We can't be morons and stay #1, if we are #1.
Gotcha Jaxnyc79. I believe the developer of Westside Plaza is attempting to take advantage of the I-10 frontage. Outside of that site, there is no prime visible frontage for retail along I-10 between DT and Chaffee Road. So they seem to going after more of a regional westside market as opposed to the neighborhoods immediately adjacent to the site.
Nevertheless, every proposal is different. Boulevard Crossing may be one that ends up with residential included. There's a chance that Roosevelt Square could as well. I doubt either of them would get much push back from NIMBYs if there were apartments included, given them being in commercial corridors.
Brick and Mortar retail does have a big problem competing against Amazon: taxes & administrative red tape.
Larger chains may use some of the tax "optimization" strategies that Amazon has employed but even they should be limited as they are less international and would face a stronger backlash from the public when doing so.
Amazon invested the billions they saved in taxes over the years, strengthening their position even more.
Next thing are stupid customers, trying things on / out in a physical store but then ordering them for a few $$$ less on the internet.
Note: I know it's just one side of the story.
Amazon is expanding into brick and mortar....and brick and mortar has expanded into ecommerce. Retailers that appear to be doing well, tend to have invested in both (and more) to appeal to a larger demographic of potential customers.