Six shopping centers preparing to make a comeback

[thelakelander]

Tying all of this back to the original topic, these shopping center investments represent an era where developers and banks believe they can still be viable places for retail. They are a local indicator that brick and mortars aren't going anywhere. They also represent a change in the market from traditional one-size-fits-all big box retail to newer retail prototypes. Just take a look at the Boulevard Crossing redevelopment plan. Instead of the Kmart big box, it's being replaced with smaller spaces that are closer to the street, along with restaurant outparcels. Same goes for Westside Plaza. The redeveloped center will have the same amount of space as the existing center. However, the spaces will be smaller to accommodate smaller retail formats as opposed to the Home Depot that used to be there.

[jaxnyc79]

Tying all of this back to the original topic, these shopping center investments represent an era where developers and banks believe they can still be viable places for retail. They are a local indicator that brick and mortars aren't going anywhere. They also represent a change in the market from traditional one-size-fits-all big box retail to newer retail prototypes. Just take a look at the Boulevard Crossing redevelopment plan. Instead of the Kmart big box, it's being replaced with smaller spaces that are closer to the street, along with restaurant outparcels. Same goes for Westside Plaza. The redeveloped center will have the same amount of space as the existing center. However, the spaces will be smaller to accommodate smaller retail formats as opposed to the Home Depot that used to be there.

I don't think anyone said brick and mortar are going away - we all live in such structures.  The point was that traditional big box brick and mortar RETAIL is facing major challenges, and hopefully the Jax Zoning Code gives developers the freedom to quickly adapt to the new, required formats, and hopefully there are design standards to prevent these real estate transitions from being hideous detractors from surrounding residential neighborhoods.

[thelakelander]

Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry. If anything, it shows the value of COJ's mobility plan and mobility fee. By redeveloping these existing sites, developers are improving established blighted commercial corridors and being rewarded with mobility fee credits, as opposed to traditional sprawl type growth. So perhaps we should be saying kudos to COJ in this particular case.

[Lostwave]

Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry.

And it needs to evolve.  I think that big shopping centers are dying for a reason.  Its a pain in the ass.  I would much rather go to a CompUsa or Best Buy than buy electronics on Amazon.  But it is such a nightmare to get into the SJTC and when you get in the store, there is no one to help you, so I just don't do it.  I would much prefer the way it was... small shops with knowledgeable employees who can actually help you with your decision making. 

Now you have to fight a ton of traffic to go to a huge store full of crap that may or may not be what you want and an employee who doesn't want to be there talking to you about a product they know nothing about.  The "mom and pop" stores of the past had employees (or probably the owners) who were passionate about the products in the store. 

Even if I have to make several stops to buy what I need, its fine.  At SJTC you have to get back in your car to go to the next big box because they are so far apart anyway. 

The main center of the town center where the apple store etc is... that would my ideal shopping center, if that is all that was there, and if the stores were mostly local shops.  But its in the middle of a traffic war zone so I don't go anywhere near the town center. 

So until things improve, Amazon it is for me.

[jaxnyc79]

Traditional brick and mortar big box retail is evolving. This is above any thing Jax can or should save locally. If a chain like Kmart, Sears or JCPenney can't evolve....good riddance. That's how the free market works. There will always be winners and losers. Given the current redesign of existing shopping centers in Jax that align with today's market place, it appears that nothing locally is hindering the evolution of the brick and mortar retail industry. If anything, it shows the value of COJ's mobility plan and mobility fee. By redeveloping these existing sites, developers are improving established blighted commercial corridors and being rewarded with mobility fee credits, as opposed to traditional sprawl type growth. So perhaps we should be saying kudos to COJ in this particular case.

Actually, I think many of Jax's commercial corridors look like garbage - a visual onslaught - no wonder surrounding neighborhoods often fight mixed use developments.  Rarely do I see functional walkability encouraged or incorporated into designs.  It's a pole sign, power line, parking lot soup with paltry landscaping...and the clustering of commercial uses without walkability makes for an unnecessary war with auto-congestion.  And yes, brick-and-mortar retail is evolving, but nationally, it is shrinking.  Having said that, I don't really know really know what we're debating.  Almost like debating for debating's Sake.  I think we're all happy that developers are planning to do something with these shopping center wastelands, but some of them have been detractors from the neighborhoods for a generation, and maybe there's a way for Jax to stimulate infill and revitalization with much quicker turnarounds. 

[thelakelander]

Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.

[jaxnyc79]

Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.

Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses.  It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.  But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.  As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that?  And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard.  Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere.  Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.

[Tacachale]

Nationally, the stastics show brick and mortar retail is still growing. Growth may not be as strong as in decades past but it isn't shrinking. Jax's retail corridors reflect a poor land development pattern that's over 70 years in the making. However, it's the same development pattern in the majority of the US...even in the suburban areas of NYC's and Chicago's MSAs. These particular shopping center projects aren't going to put a dent on that but they are a reflection of change in the sector starting to have an impact on Jax's landscape.

Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses.  It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.  But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.  As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that?  And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard.  Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere.  Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.

Correct. I don't think Ennis is saying there's no "retail apocalypse", just that the sector is evolving and it's not all doom and gloom. Especially when you take into account food and bars, which are growing.

[thelakelander]

Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses.  It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.

It appears we're talking about two different things. Brick and mortar retail is growing nationally despite the growth of e-commerce. That part has nothing to do with Jax. Sprawl and aesthetics is another story altogether nationally as well. Some municipalities are getting better at improving their land development form but that doesn't have much to do with national retail development trends. With that said, regardless of what happens in Nocatee (that's another county that Jax has no control over) for the first time in a while locally, several large strip malls left for decade are in the process of being redeveloped and they're plans don't involve these spaces being filled with Goodwill and low rent storefront churches.

But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.

Who needs ten story department stores these days? Sprawl and the automobile changed that need decades ago. I'm actually not sure if even retail square footage is shrinking. The average store may be smaller but there are a lot more of them, then they were in the days of downtowns being the retail epicenter of our cities. I'd think we'd need some statistical data to better confirm or deny this assumption.

Financially speaking, a retailer would be better off building a huge distribution center on cheap property to serve several locations than each retail location also acting as its own warehouse stocking up on inventory it may not be able to move. Sure being able to sell your product online helps with this but its also a better use of real estate. 

As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that?  And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard.  Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere.  Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.

I'm agreeing that blighted retail corridors have looked like garbage for over 50 years. I just don't see how that applies to stuff being redeveloped now or how a 50 year local land development form can be currently related to today's retail development trends. It seems that they are two separate issues. One is a national evolution of an industry. The other deals with local zoning and aesthetics.

[thelakelander]

Correct. I don't think Ennis is saying there's no "retail apocalypse", just that the sector is evolving and it's not all doom and gloom. Especially when you take into account food and bars, which are growing.

I'm saying there is no retail apocalypse. The industry is simply evolving. With that said, yes a lot of traditional names we're familiar with won't survive long term. However, they'll be replaced with a new crop of retailers built and design to meet the demands of the populations they serve. In a way, this is no different from places like Kress and McCrory's being eliminated by category killer big boxes back during the late 20th century.

[jaxnyc79]

Physically brick and mortar retail is growing because new developments go up in sprawling communities like Nocatee while declining or moribund brick-and-mortar sit by and become Goodwill shops or churches or less than optimal uses.  It's not like we're demolishing dead and dying places as sprawl brings new strip centers into previously unspoiled nature and green spaces.

It appears we're talking about two different things. Brick and mortar retail is growing nationally despite the growth of e-commerce. That part has nothing to do with Jax. Sprawl and aesthetics is another story altogether nationally as well. Some municipalities are getting better at improving their land development form but that doesn't have much to do with national retail development trends. With that said, regardless of what happens in Nocatee (that's another county that Jax has no control over) for the first time in a while locally, several large strip malls left for decade are in the process of being redeveloped and they're plans don't involve these spaces being filled with Goodwill and low rent storefront churches.

But if you measure shrinkage by some measure like retail sales per square foot, there is shrinkage and online sales are a significant factor.

Who needs ten story department stores these days? Sprawl and the automobile changed that need decades ago. I'm actually not sure if even retail square footage is shrinking. The average store may be smaller but there are a lot more of them, then they were in the days of downtowns being the retail epicenter of our cities. I'd think we'd need some statistical data to better confirm or deny this assumption.

Financially speaking, a retailer would be better off building a huge distribution center on cheap property to serve several locations than each retail location also acting as its own warehouse stocking up on inventory it may not be able to move. Sure being able to sell your product online helps with this but its also a better use of real estate. 

As for Jax retail corridors looking like garbage, are you agreeing with me and expounding on that?  And yes, New Jersey and Long Island retail corridors look like garbage as well, but doesn't mean that has to be Jax's standard.  Besides, those areas at least have a beacon in a thriving downtown to offset commercial blight elsewhere.  Maybe consider design standards that seem to be in place in Fort Lauderdale or in San Diego or Palo Alto/San Jose or many other places.

I'm agreeing that blighted retail corridors have looked like garbage for over 50 years. I just don't see how that applies to stuff being redeveloped now or how a 50 year local land development form can be currently related to today's retail development trends. It seems that they are two separate issues. One is a national evolution of an industry. The other deals with local zoning and aesthetics.

This started out with me questioning the shopping center redevelopments.  I hope for the best, but I think they are redeveloping in the face of headwinds.  My concern is that a place like the shopping center on Ramona Blvd (??), being surrounded by low-density residential, lacks enough surrounding demand to be remade into a thriving, robust, and aesthetically pleasing contributor to the Jax landscape.  Without more infill residential density in the immediate vicinity, I just don't know if that property will see its optimal use whilst intended for retail.  It would be nice if these make-overs incorporated functional walkability, some sort of public green space, and a dense residential component, while also seeing a refurbishment of retail spaces.  Is zoning preventing this from happening?  Do such dense mixed-use proposals face opposition from neighborhoods over traffic and parking?  I just can't imagine that not working in Jax. 

[Snaketoz]

I believe that retail is not evolving due to demands from the consumer totally.  That might have a bit truth, but what we're seeing is mostly the results of greed.  It's not to appease the consumer, it's the result of the 1% refusing to let go of their entitled slice of pie, which is almost the entire pie.  We allowed it to happen for decades when it was small items such as socks, shoes, shirts, and toys.  Now, it's refrigerators, central A/C, and well, everything.  What we're seeing in retail is churning.  Stores closing and being replaced by others isn't progress, it's pathetic.  The Chinese economy is going to change and we'll get into even more trouble when the Asian labor force refuses to live in unheated huts and on boats.  It's happening now.  Only due to communists being in power has new Chinese purchasing power been kept in check.  It won't be forever.  Instead of doing the right thing, we'll just look for another continent to exploit.  The only thing that has saved us is that this process is taking awhile.  In the mean time, we are selling our souls to the devil.  China is buying-up our real estate, buying our bonds, and unloading cheap goods below their costs to keep this going.  It's true.  Education is essential to solve our problems.  We can't be morons and stay #1, if we are #1.

[thelakelander]

Gotcha Jaxnyc79.  I believe the developer of Westside Plaza is attempting to take advantage of the I-10 frontage. Outside of that site, there is no prime visible frontage for retail along I-10 between DT and Chaffee Road. So they seem to going after more of a regional westside market as opposed to the neighborhoods immediately adjacent to the site.

Nevertheless, every proposal is different. Boulevard Crossing may be one that ends up with residential included. There's a chance that Roosevelt Square could as well. I doubt either of them would get much push back from NIMBYs if there were apartments included, given them being in commercial corridors.

[Gunnar]

Brick and Mortar retail does have a big problem competing against Amazon: taxes & administrative red tape.

Larger chains may use some of the tax "optimization" strategies that Amazon has employed but even they should be limited as they are less international and would face a stronger backlash from the public when doing so.

Amazon invested the billions they saved in taxes over the years, strengthening their position even more.

Next thing are stupid customers, trying things on / out in a physical store but then ordering them for a few $$$ less on the internet.

Note: I know it's just one side of the story.

[thelakelander]

Amazon is expanding into brick and mortar....and brick and mortar has expanded into ecommerce. Retailers that appear to be doing well, tend to have invested in both (and more) to appeal to a larger demographic of potential customers.