Metro Jacksonville

Saturday, March 12, 2011 7:26 AM
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Do you think cities and counties should bid on their own for federal money for high-speed rail?

Yes

No
 
Do you think cities and counties should bid on their own for federal money for high-speed rail?
Yes (47%) No (53%)
View all recent polls ORLANDO -- 
It looks like Florida will get another chance at high-speed rail, and this time, it won't need the governor's approval.

The news came from Washington early Friday evening.   

One of the project’s biggest supporters, Sen. Bill Nelson, was elated and has remained cautiously optimistic he would be able to find a way to bypass Gov. Rick Scott if Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood would go for it.

But a few things still have to happen.

First, there has to be an inter-local agreement between the cities where the rail runs -- Orlando, Lakeland and Tampa â€" which is already there.

Next, they have to partner with someone other than the state to operate the rail likely Amtrak, although it could be a newly created rail authority.

Finally, since we passed on the $2.4 billion originally, now it's open to everyone in the country.

However, Nelson is pretty confident we will win the bid process.

http://www.cfnews13.com/article/news/2011/march/217665/Florida-gets-another-shot-at-highspeed-rail

Part of me actually hopes it goes through, although certain experts have convinced me that the selected route is suspect.

If it goes through, and turns out to be even moderately successful, being wrong will feel good.

Being right will be awful.

Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

QuoteThe fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go

So I take it you are not optomistic???

No, i'm realistic.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 12, 2011, 09:12:39 AM
Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

Do we know who that might be?

From the debate the other night, Moran, Brown and Lee stood out on the issue of mass transit.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 12, 2011, 10:29:29 AM
From the debate the other night, Moran, Brown and Lee stood out on the issue of mass transit.

Then..........all those local people passionate about mass transit, should make sure they do not vote for Hogan. And to beat him, the best vote would be for Audrey Moran.

Disclaimer, I CANNOT vote in the Duval elections since I do not reside in Duval county.

Haven't we learned yet, that it's impossible to convince anti-mass transit leaders to change their minds? Hence, make sure we do not vote for empty seat Hogan.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 12, 2011, 09:12:39 AM
Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

I cannot agree with you more and it should not have come as a surprise to the astute observers of politics.

QuoteThe Awakening

After almost thirteen years of Republican rule (certainly not governance), ordinary Floridians are beginning to awaken from their corporately-induced stupor and realize something is very wrong...

So now, I call on fellow Republicans who believe in traditional Republicanism ( I used to be a traditional Republican myself) to make sure they pressure the legislature to override any possible Scott veto on HSR:

QuoteNelson admitted one of the potential hurdles could still be the governor.     

The state owns the median of Interstate 4 where the rail would be built.

The senator said the governor could try to block the project on those grounds, but then the state Legislature could intervene

QuoteThe Tampa-to-Orlando route had obvious drawbacks:It would have linked two cities that are virtually unnavigable without cars, and that are so close that the new train would have been little faster than driving. But the Obama administration chose it anyway because it was seen as the line that could be built first.

The 21-mile leg between Orlando International Airport and Walt Disney World, which agreed to donate land for a stop, had the potential to attract lots of riders, and revenue â€" though such a short distance would be better served by a conventional train, or perhaps a monorail.

A Route Is Seen as Too Short

Florida’s route had some glaring imperfections, though.

Tampa and Orlando are only 84 miles apart, generally considered too close for high-speed rail to make sense. The train trip, with many stops along the way, would have shaved only around a half-hour off the drive. Since there are no commercial flights between the two cities...

(FOR THE SAME COMMERCIAL REASON THAT NOBODY WANTS TO GO FROM THE ORLANDO AIRPORT TO TAMPA BUT MAGICALLY THE TRAIN WILL ATTRACT ABOUT A BILLION PASSENGERS A YEAR! OCK)

Quote...the new line would not have lured away fliers or freed up landing slots at the busy airports. And neither Tampa nor Orlando has many public transportation options. So the question arose: Could riders be persuaded to leave their cars behind and buy tickets to places where they would still probably need cars?

(BECAUSE THE STATE HAS LITTLE TO NO HISTORY OF SUPPORTING PASSENGER RAIL WITH ITS EVER SHRINKING INTRASTATE AMTRAK NETWORK. OCK)

QuoteAlthough the state’s plan called for eventually extending the line down to Miami, making the train an attractive alternative to short-hop flights or long drives, the extension would have required more time and planning and much more money to build. When the planning group considered a route linking Tampa, Orlando and Miami, it ranked it 100th among potential high-speed rail routes in the United States, far behind likelier choices like the Northeast Corridor.

BUT A TOTALLY BOGUS, FABRICATED FROM WHOLE CLOTH "STUDY" SUDDENLY OVERCAME ALL OBJECTIONS? REALLY?  THERE IS NOT A SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT ANYBODY IN THE ORLANDO METRO AREA IS GOING TO BENEFIT FROM A TRAIN THAT DOESN'T PIERCE THE ORLANDO METRO AREA... OCK!

(http://inlinethumb14.webshots.com/48013/2100392990104969885S600x600Q85.jpg)

This looks like the Kathleen Road interchange.  There you have a significant grade level change on I-4, a CSX overpass and three road overpasses within a short distance of each other.

Ock, not sure where you are quoting from..........Florida came in 100th place in a ranking?

Come on, does that even sound remotely true??!!??!!

I assume they are referring to a very old study done by America2050 in 2009, that was grossly incomplete. While the updated 2011 study by America 2050 was also largely incomplete ( ignoring the all important tourism factor in Central Florida of which conceptually 5% may ride the train, giving the HSR the 2.5 million ridership needed to make the HSR line feasible), they have gone out of their way to make sure publications do not abuse their rankings:

QuoteWhy and How Florida's High-Speed Rail Line Must be Built
By Petra on January 13, 2011  | 4 Comments
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    E-mail This week, America 2050 released a report evaluating all potential high-speed rail corridors around the country on their ability to attract riders based on quantifiable regional characteristics, such as concentrations of jobs, population density, and rail transit networks. Our report drew attention to the fact that Florida's population and jobs are more decentralized and auto-dependent compared to other regions around the country, potentially challenging the state's ability to attract riders to a high-speed rail system.

Some critics may seize on this evaluation to bolster their claims that Florida should not invest in a high-speed rail system. They are misinterpreting the point of our report, which identifies the most promising corridor in each region and points to ways to improve each project's chances for success.

The Tampa-Orlando-Miami corridor is the most promising corridor in Florida, while also possessing several key attributes that make it an excellent project. These include project readiness and public ownership of the right of way for the initial segment. Because of the difficulty in quantifying these important attributes, they were not accounted for in our report scoring system, but of all rail corridors in the nation currently being discussed, Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in feasibility.

The importance of feasibility cannot be overstated. The promise of true high-speed rail has yet to be experienced anywhere in the United States, not even in the Northeast Corridor, where Amtrak's Acela Express service falls short of international standards. The Tampa-Orlando segment of Florida's high-speed rail corridor will be the first leg in a statewide and national system that can demonstrate the potential of high-speed rail to transform inter-city travel. This is similar to the role that the first segments in the Interstate Highway System played half a century ago in demonstrating the potential for these highways to transform late 20th century travel.  

Central Florida also possesses a special attribute that distinguishes the region from almost every other: close to 50 million annual visitors to Central Florida destinations like Disney World. Our study did not fully incorporate the impact of these visitors into the evaluation as that situation is unique to the Florida corridor. If only 5 percent of these visitors take the high-speed rail line to connect from the airport to Disney World, they would meet the passenger estimates of 2.4 million for the entire Tampa-Orlando line in the first year of operation. A growing share of Florida's European and Asian visitors also use high-speed rail at home and can be expected to travel on Florida's new system, giving the state's vital tourism economy a boost.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

Besides we have a new independent report the FDOT released that shows the profitability of Florida HSR, even generating over $10 million in the first year alone.

And I have a yard full of blue unicorns and flying pygmy armadillos pulling me away from the screen! Believe it and be deluded.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: FayeforCure on March 12, 2011, 10:39:53 AM
Then..........all those local people passionate about mass transit, should make sure they do not vote for Hogan. And to beat him, the best vote would be for Audrey Moran.

another Democrat coming around....way to go Faye!

QuoteTo maintain public support for a continued federal commitment to high-speed rail, the initial investments must be viewed as a success. Although there are many promising projects in smaller travel markets that should be part of a fully constructed network, these will be better positioned for success if the initial $8 billion are invested in projects that can achieve the greatest travel benefits for the largest numbers in the shortest period
of time.

Phase Two: Phase two of the plan provides connections to many of the remaining city pairs ranked in the top 100 and includes parts of ten of the eleven megaregions. New routes in this phase include Dallas to Houston (ranked 10th), Los Angeles to Phoenix (ranked 15th), Los Angeles to Las Vegas (ranked 23rd), Portland to Seattle (ranked 29), Miami to Tampa via Orlando (ranked 100), and the “Southeast Corridor” that runs from Atlanta to Washington, D.C. via Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Richmond. Phase two also includes extensions to the three systems begun in phase one extending the California system south to San Diego, the Northeast system to Albany, and the Midwest system east to Cleveland.

The $8 billion appropriated for intercity rail projects represents a major commitment to intercity rail by the federal government. It will take many more of these appropriations, however, to realize the ultimate goal. These initial federal investments in intercity rail should be directed toward corridors with the greatest demand for intercity travel. In general, this demand occurs in city pairs located 100 â€" 500 miles from each another, with large populations, economies, and the presence of regional and local transit networks that can provide connections for intercity passengers. America’s 11 emerging megaregionsâ€"networks of metropolitan regions connected by linked economies, travel patterns, and shared environmental resourcesâ€"are among the prime areas suited for intercity rail investment. The success of these investments in attracting sufficient ridership to offset operating expenses and the ensuing public support for the projects selected for the first round of funding,

rail investments, it is essential that the FRA select corridors where the conditions exist to support strong passenger demand for high-speed services. In addition to the FRA’s criteria described above, it is critical to identify the corridors across the country with the maximum potential to support high-speed rail in order to minimize this investment risk. To do so, America 2050 has developed a ranking system based on an index of six criteria to judge the extent of demand for high-speed rail between any two city pairs. Each city pair consists of two cities, each with a population of at least 50,000 that are separated by a distance of 100 to 500 miles. These criteria were weighted and then calculated into an index that scored the city pairs. The largest index score represented the best potential market for high-speed rail. Nearly thirty thousand city pairs were analyzed to determine their suitability for high-speed rail investment. The criteria and the results of the index are described below.

The city pairs were evaluated on the basis of the following criteria:

• City and metropolitan area population, favoring cities with larger populations in large metropolitan areas.
• Distance between city pairs, confined to distances between 100-500 miles, with 250 miles receiving the highest value.
• Metropolitan regions with existing transit systems including regional rail, commuter rail and local transit networks.
• Metropolitan GDP, awarding value based on the combined per-capita GDP.
• Metropolitan regions with high levels of auto congestion as measured by the Texas Transportation Institute’s Travel Time Index.
• Metropolitan regions that are located within a megaregion.

The rationale for each of these criteria is described below.
Criterion 1: Metropolitan Size
To ensure sufficient travel demand for high-speed rail service, it is best to locate stations in major metropolitan areas. There are 21 metro regions in the nation with a population of at least 2.5 million; all are located within one of the 11 emerging megaregions across the country. Megaregions are networks of metropolitan regions with shared economies, infrastructure and natural resource systems. The Northeast Megaregion alone contains four of the top ten most populous metro regions in the nation â€" New York, Philadelphia, than 500 miles are more efficiently travelled by air. There are significant barriers to air travel causing it to be inefficient at short distances. These barriers include accessing airports located outside the metropolitan core, onerous security processes, long check-in times, and airport delays and congestion. These time barriers to air travel result in significant time advantages to efficient rail service. This time advantage drops off sharply at distances beyond 500 miles when the superior in-flight speed of air travel overwhelms the initial time costs of travelling to and checking in at the airport. This index weighted the distance criteria such that it peaked between 200 and 300 miles and decreased to zero after 500 miles, replicating performance of existing systems in Europe and Asia.

SOURCE:  http://www.america2050.org/pdf/Where-HSR-Works-Best.pdf

 There are significant barriers to air travel causing it to be inefficient at short distances. These barriers include accessing airports located outside the metropolitan core, onerous security processes, long check-in times, and airport delays and congestion. These time barriers to air travel result in significant time advantages to efficient rail service.


Here are about 99 of the reasons why ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL is a STUPID choice for a terminal. A way-station yes, but a terminus or hub terminal, NO WAY.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 12, 2011, 09:12:39 AM
The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

I have been following the conversation in the education community about how they are going to handle the projected budget cuts.  What I am seeing is amazing.  People are coming together looking at ways to radically change the system - and in ways that will involve more community participation.  The same can happen in the transportation industry.  Nothing motivates me personally to find new solutions more than when I run out of the money that I had been depending on to maintain current my lifestyle.

So the irony is that when we have the money to build a new system, we are complacent and don't do anything different.  When times are tight, we get more creative and find ways to get things done.

Quote from: FayeforCure on March 12, 2011, 11:28:22 AM
Ock, not sure where you are quoting from..........Florida came in 100th place in a ranking?

Come on, does that even sound remotely true??!!??!!

I assume they are referring to a very old study done by America2050 in 2009, that was grossly incomplete. While the updated 2011 study by America 2050 was also largely incomplete ( ignoring the all important tourism factor in Central Florida of which conceptually 5% may ride the train, giving the HSR the 2.5 million ridership needed to make the HSR line feasible), they have gone out of their way to make sure publications do not abuse their rankings because of the severe limitations as the advantages of Florida are just not comparable to other regions.

Quoteis the most promising corridor in Florida, while also possessing several key attributes that make it an excellent project. These include project readiness and public ownership of the right of way for the initial segment. Because of the difficulty in quantifying these important attributes, they were not accounted for in our report scoring system, but of all rail corridors in the nation currently being discussed, Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in feasibility.

The importance of feasibility cannot be overstated.

http://www.america2050.org/2011/01/why-and-how-floridas-high-speed-rail-line-must-be-built.html

Besides we have a new independent report the FDOT released that shows the profitability of Florida HSR, even generating over $10 million in the first year alone.

Ah, so I was right, Ock is misleadingly referring to the city pair report, that the authors have acknowledged was very limited in scope by not taking into account the strengths of Florida's HSR. They strongly cautioned that the report does not change the single fact that according to these authors themselves:

Quoteof all rail corridors in the nation currently being discussed, Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in feasibility.

The importance of feasibility cannot be overstated.

PLEASE, PLEASE Ock stop trying to mislead the readers here. If you quote a study, please note what the authors are saying about their own study!!!

Quote
“If there’s any opportunity for us to revive high speed rail and bring it to Florida, we should explore it,” said Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio. “I need more facts. But in talking to our attorneys about it we have felt all along that we could create an entity between the cities that could receive the funds.”

The coalition, though, will still need cooperation from Scott.

The right-of-way for the tracks, largely along Interstate 4, belongs to the state. And technical assistance will need to come from the Florida Department of Transportation, which is under Scott’s control.

“It’s an arm of the government that would have to be helpful,” Iorio said. “Just as they are helpful if we do a road project. At some point it would get to the point of absurdity if they help with roads and bike paths and expressways but they won’t be helpful with a multi-billion dollar project an entity wants to do in conjunction with the private sector.”



Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/11/2110945/high-speed-rail-in-florida-still.html#ixzz1GPyAwg6U

Go Pam, Paula and Audrey for calling out the sillies!!

Doug, getting creative with financing isn't the issue. What we're facing right now is dealing with and overcoming a stubborn idealogy. It's an argument where facts don't really matter as long as it's tied in with a national partisan battle. I believe we'll have an easier time addressing things on the local front than we will at the state level during Scott's term in Tallahassee.

I wasn't talking about financing.  I'm talking about entirely new ways of doing things.  When there is no longer money available to do things the way you have always done them, the best course is often looking to do different things.

I completely agree - and have been saying all along - that we should be looking at transit at the local level first.  I have always felt that connecting cities with rail systems when the cities themselves are completely car dependent is backwards.

Another point that we often overlook when accusing Scott and the others is that a large percentage of the population agrees with them or they would not have been elected.  The way to change the system is to change public perception.  I believe we are wasting our time trying to change Scott's mind as long as he feels he has the backing of these people.  Our focus should be on a public advertising campaign to portray a different view.

Imagine a series of advertisements that show how much personal time a working parent will get back with their children if they can work while they are commuting?  Or watching the cash register ring up as they continue to drive everywhere?  Or scenes of people stuck in traffic versus a fast moving train?  Signs that are strategically placed while people are at a standstill on JTB or waiting for the train that is stopped in San Marco?

Where are all these efforts?  Do you remember the campaign that Delaney waged in support of BJP?  We need something along those lines.

Clearly Team Scott doesn't own real estate in the vicinity of the HSR proposal.

A more savvy Governor would have figured out a way to keep 2 Billion in his state, poor planning by the previous regime notwithstanding.

Is Rick Scott a Floridian?

Quote from: buckethead on March 12, 2011, 06:52:56 PM
Is Rick Scott a Floridian?

Doesn't matter - he was elected by Floridians.  He didn't get a majority - but he did get more votes than his opponents.  Rick Scott is not the problem.  The problem (for some of us) is the reality that enough people in our state wanted him in office.

Quote from: buckethead on March 12, 2011, 06:52:56 PM

Is Rick Scott a Floridian?

not really....he moved here less than 10 years ago

Quote from: dougskiles on March 12, 2011, 08:01:36 PM

Quote from: buckethead on March 12, 2011, 06:52:56 PM
Is Rick Scott a Floridian?

Doesn't matter - he was elected by Floridians.  He didn't get a majority - but he did get more votes than his opponents.  Rick Scott is not the problem.  The problem (for some of us) is the reality that enough people in our state wanted him in office.

+1  There is a reason so many episodes of COPS are filmed in our state.  As my midwestern wife would ask "why are there so many Hoosiers here?"

QuotePLEASE, PLEASE Ock stop trying to mislead the readers here. If you quote a study, please note what the authors are saying about their own study!!!

Quote from: FayeforCure on March 12, 2011, 03:00:47 PM

Ock, not sure where you are quoting from..........Florida came in 100th place in a ranking?

Come on, does that even sound remotely true??!!??!!

Actually if I were doing the study Florida would rank around 50-60, but the current plan from OIA to Convention Center to Disney (clearly a well connected commuter train territory) and on to Polk Station to Lakeland to a city bus stop in Tampa wouldn't even be considered. So YES IT SOUNDS VERY TRUE.  

Quote...ignoring the all important tourism factor in Central Florida of which conceptually 5% may ride the train, giving the HSR the 2.5 million ridership needed to make the HSR line feasible

Which is a completely bogus number and you know it Faye... You even paused the argument last week to tell me you didn't know where they came up with the numbers. FACT IS, those numbers sounded good so lets make it fit! There are no 50 million passengers coming out of OIA, OIA says it's more like 18 million a year.  So if 50 million are visiting Central Florida 32 million of them are either already in their own automobiles or riding Amtrak - neither of which will need a "High Speed Ride." So your 5% number drops down to around 800,000 passengers a year...hardly the "profit panecia they have attempted to paint by using the larger number on the one hand, then quickly inserting the airport as a 5% gathering point...BOGUS 100%. You keep bringing back that same 2.4 million and now a newer HIGHER bogus number, even though there is NO basis for believing it.

QuoteThese include project readiness and public ownership of the right of way for the initial segment. Because of the difficulty in quantifying these important attributes, they were not accounted for in our report scoring system, but of all rail corridors in the nation currently being discussed, Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in feasibility.

Quote...the advantages of Florida are just not comparable to other regions.

Their not quantified because freeway ownership and paper doesn't add a single passenger to any train, while it might look like a slam dunk, somewhere they will need to attract riders. So what advantages? People? Every other market in the top 99 has them... Trains? Every railroad has them... That leaves ownership of a  freeway with permits already pulled... OH MY GOD, I just realized the Arlington Expressway is a freeway and we own it too... We can FAST TRACK the permits. Wow let's build HSR to Regency Square! Oh and that little Commodore Point Expressway? High Speed Rail to "Sticks and Stuff." Don't forget that little connector between North Main and I-95, HIGH SPEED RAIL TO ANHEUSER-BUSCH!  Now there's a plan the city would get behind and it would probably carry more people then the I-4 route will.

QuoteBesides we have a new independent report the FDOT released that shows the profitability of Florida HSR, even generating over $10 million in the first year alone.

Well, CHA-CHING! Let's build a dozen of them, using their fuzzy math that ought to get us $120 million in the first year.

The importance of chicanery cannot be overstated.  Florida's first leg - Tampa to Orlando - leads the nation in chicanery...  And I suppose it will be some "certain political party" that caused it all, when this implodes and HSR all goes to hell in a hand basket?

QuotePLEASE, PLEASE Ock stop trying to mislead the readers here. If you quote a study, please note what the authors are saying about their own study!!!

Why Fay? So when it fails we can all look stupid together? Those authors hit the main and very broad points that actually will mean something to a railroad operation. Facts that they dug out themselves and have quickly tried to spin into the "build at any cost" line of thinking. The most more statements that in spite of the broad points, almost all of which go against Florida's current project, we should build it anyway because we can are meaningless. The whole study is enough to set every signal from Richmond to Miami .

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: dougskiles on March 12, 2011, 06:34:59 PM
I wasn't talking about financing.  I'm talking about entirely new ways of doing things.  When there is no longer money available to do things the way you have always done them, the best course is often looking to do different things.

One of the best plans I've heard has come out of the dreaded conservative camp... Offer the private railroads the equipment pools and all property and staff involved in the operation of any Amtrak trains that currently run on their track... FOR FREE. The next step is to give them an incentive with a curve. Here is an example using hypothetical numbers-the real numbers enough to make this attractive would have to be figured out by the bean counters. 100% tax credit applicable on a route by route basis, for the total fixed costs of operation-maintenance-advertising-improvements, and offer an additional higher 5% for each improvement in : marketing, sales, additional trains, new routes...etc. This idea could easily shift the momentum back to the railroads where it rightfully belongs.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 12, 2011, 10:33:12 PM
There are no 50 million passengers coming out of OIA, OIA says it's more like 18 million a year.

nice try, but you're only looking at enplanements (i.e., boardings)....the reality is that airports assume that every person boarding is also equated by a passenger disembarking...so the real # for total passengers at OIA (the largest passenger airport in FL) was 36 million in 2007...and yes, it is expected that by 2030, OIA will carry more than 50 million passengers.

for comparison, Jax. had about 6 million passengers in 2007 and 2008

Quote from: dougskiles on March 12, 2011, 06:34:59 PM
I wasn't talking about financing.  I'm talking about entirely new ways of doing things.  When there is no longer money available to do things the way you have always done them, the best course is often looking to do different things.

Considering mass transit is cheaper than building roads (our current solution to transportation issues), I think we'll be fine heading into the long term future.  We simply can't afford continuing to do things the way we have and eventually, we'll either bankrupt ourselves or begin to invest in cheaper alternative options of mobility.

QuoteI completely agree - and have been saying all along - that we should be looking at transit at the local level first.  I have always felt that connecting cities with rail systems when the cities themselves are completely car dependent is backwards.

I actually prefer the Central Florida model where they were tapping into a mix of funding mechanisms to establish both simultaneously.  Before the events of the last couple of weeks, the plan to establish BRT (Tampa), commuter rail (Orlando) and intercity rail (HSR) connecting with the local systems by 2015 was pretty impressive.  With the change in Tallahassee, it looks like Tampa's BRT lines will be the only thing to come online before 2015 down there.

QuoteAnother point that we often overlook when accusing Scott and the others is that a large percentage of the population agrees with them or they would not have been elected.  The way to change the system is to change public perception.

I look at is as being quite the opposite, we just don't really notice up here in Jax because we're about a decade behind our peers on issues like this.  We're clearly a swing state.  Considering we've (Central/South Florida) been pushing for rail for decades now, it appears a good chunk of the public is demanding alternative forms of mobility.  I truly believe that public perception is good enough to the point to get projects pushed through (ex. HSR, Sunrail, Tri-rail, FEC/Amtrak, etc.).  Its just a matter of working to get full funding driven through when opportunity knocks.  Nevertheless, with any issue, you'll always have opposition.  If you don't open the door when opportunity knocks, you give the opposition a chance to stop you dead in your tracks.  

QuoteI believe we are wasting our time trying to change Scott's mind as long as he feels he has the backing of these people.  Our focus should be on a public advertising campaign to portray a different view.

Imagine a series of advertisements that show how much personal time a working parent will get back with their children if they can work while they are commuting?  Or watching the cash register ring up as they continue to drive everywhere?  Or scenes of people stuck in traffic versus a fast moving train?  Signs that are strategically placed while people are at a standstill on JTB or waiting for the train that is stopped in San Marco?

Where are all these efforts?  Do you remember the campaign that Delaney waged in support of BJP?  We need something along those lines.

I don't think we need something like this unless the goal is to ask people to vote to increase their taxes to pay for mass transit.  At this point, I don't believe a tax increase for mass transit is needed.  In architecture, we were taught that a picture speaks a thousand words.  We should apply this same concept to mass transit, just like they've done in cities like Charlotte and Salt Lake City.  

Seeing is believing.  Whether its a local bus system modification, BRT, better utilizing the existing skyway or working with the mobility plan to get the initial streetcar starter line underway, we need a cheap demonstration project.  Something that residents can see, touch and track for themselves.  If we can get one line/corridor up and running with reliable end user friendly service and integrated with the urban land uses surrounding it, we can use that as an example of what viable mass transit can do for the community.  Considering its worked in other cities, like Charlotte, Houston and Salt Lake City, I think we should give it a try.

From my perspective, we (Jacksonville) are getting nowhere with this approach.  I believe that we do need a public adverstising campaign.  But not a poorly prepared low budget approach.  We are competing with heavily funded industries working hard to brainwash people every day that all of your life problems are solved when you purchase their fancy new car.

And we can't sell them on just a fancy new train, either.  We have to show them how this will impact their life - that it truly will solve some of their problems (time, health, environment).

This only further demonstrates how much better private industry is than government at accomplishing goals.  Industries know that you can't just roll out a product and hope people will use it.  You have to market the item HEAVILY.  You have to educate the masses about how wonderful it is.  I don't see any of that.

Quote from: dougskiles on March 13, 2011, 06:05:02 AM
From my perspective, we (Jacksonville) are getting nowhere with this approach.  I believe that we do need a public advertising campaign.  But not a poorly prepared low budget approach.  We are competing with heavily funded industries working hard to brainwash people every day that all of your life problems are solved when you purchase their fancy new car.

The easiest way to sink a public advertising campaign is for the opposition to offer up your existing system as proof of failure.  Instead of spending money trying to convince suburbanites to pay more for mass transit, first start off by actually trying to make the system you do have, reliable and end user friendly.  This incremental approach will do two things:

1. It allows at least your urban core to progress immediately with reliable mass transit as its backbone.

2. It gives the local population the opportunity to see what good transit can do for the community.

Get these two things in place and a public advertising campaign will be a much easier sell.

QuoteAnd we can't sell them on just a fancy new train, either.  We have to show them how this will impact their life - that it truly will solve some of their problems (time, health, environment).

More reason to better utilize what we already have.  Its not about a new train or bus.  Its also not about throwing millions towards mass transit.  Its about creating and showing the ability to operate a reliable system and is convenient and end user friendly.  Btw, we also have a time limit.  I believe the gas tax expires in 2017.  If JTA can't successfully demonstrate their importance by then (their going to need more than an ad campaign to overcome their current image), then they're going to lose a significant chunk of funding used to maintain and operate what they already have.

QuoteThis only further demonstrates how much better private industry is than government at accomplishing goals.  Industries know that you can't just roll out a product and hope people will use it.  You have to market the item HEAVILY.  You have to educate the masses about how wonderful it is.  I don't see any of that.

The difference is, we already have a product.  Its been around in Jacksonville for over 100 years and, since 1936, its gotten progressively worse.  So we're not rolling out anything new.  A demonstration corridor or network, only improves what's already in place.  With that said, that corridor or network, needs to be in a place where high ridership already exists, there's decent population density, major destinations impacted and good potential for TOD.  The clock is ticking.  

Lakelander, I agree that we need to do all of the things you are talking about AND we need to ramp up the public perception campaign.  It takes more than a succesful idea to win people over.  The 'build it and they will come' mentality is more myth than reality.  Timing has to be right and public acceptance has to be right.  From what I can see, we are getting closer.

With regard to the Skyway expansion project I have been working on, the reason I have started at the community level and not with JTA and politicians, is that I want to build public support - at least locally.  And at some point I realize that the campaign will need to extend beyond our neighborhood.  But it has to start here.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 13, 2011, 08:54:48 AM
The clock is ticking. 

Yes it is - so why not get ready for a full-court press?  Why not advertise?  And it doesn't mean that we advertise to pump people up about JTA.  Let's get together sometime and talk about it.  Too much to cover for an online discussion.

Quote from: tufsu1 on March 12, 2011, 10:55:29 PM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 12, 2011, 10:33:12 PM
There are no 50 million passengers coming out of OIA, OIA says it's more like 18 million a year.

nice try, but you're only looking at enplanements (i.e., boardings)....the reality is that airports assume that every person boarding is also equated by a passenger disembarking...so the real # for total passengers at OIA (the largest passenger airport in FL) was 36 million in 2007...and yes, it is expected that by 2030, OIA will carry more than 50 million passengers.

for comparison, Jax. had about 6 million passengers in 2007 and 2008

Is that 14 Million passenger gap really going to close in the current economy or shall we gamble and risk the future of the entire passenger rail industry on what you hope will happen? 

Think of Southern California, people go there by car, by air, by bus, and about 3% go there by rail, VERY GOOD RAIL BY THE WAY. If your going to "California Adventure," you fly into John Wayne and grab a rental car, some will use package tours which are 99.9% motor coach which leaves a generous .1% for "others." Without being anchored to the national network - with an already existing high frequency and heavy patronage your sunk. This is a classic case of a "SOLUTION LOOKING FOR A PROBLEM." 

As planners, we get paid either way, but what sucks is down the road when an entire industry suffers because we went with the flow... Yeah, You, Lake and Myself could all get a paycheck, but at what cost to our State and our Nation, let alone an industry literally fighting for it's life in the halls of Washington, DC.  Since 1971 there have been those who expected or expect Amtrak to go away, Nixon himself in spite of huge credit for doing something about the passenger train problems of his era, didn't think it would last a decade. Today the entire industry in North America still looks something like this2005 chart:

Mode of passenger transport    Passenger-miles
(millions)    Percent
Highway............4,884,557    88.79%
Buses.................162,908    2.96%
Air Carriers..........583,689    10.61%
Rail â€" total...........30,972    0.56%
Transit.................16,118    0.29%
Commuter..............9,473    0.17%
Intercity/Amtrak......5,381    0.10%
All other modes (e.g., ferryboats)    2,091    0.04%
Source: 2005 estimates by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics

So 99.4% of all passenger miles traveled are by automobile or by air, and you REALLY believe that it's worth the future of our industry to gamble that 5% will show up at the station? We need a solid plan, in a well developed mass transit setting and FLORIDA - sorry folks, isn't it.  In Florida we need a successful plan to develop and improve usage just to get us to step B, but all the spin and hype in the world on this project isn't going to fill a seat and vault us over step B-Y to get to Z. We are skipping the most critical parts and those parts will operate on the existing railroad lines and highways.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: dougskiles on March 13, 2011, 09:43:31 AM
With regard to the Skyway expansion project I have been working on, the reason I have started at the community level and not with JTA and politicians, is that I want to build public support - at least locally.  And at some point I realize that the campaign will need to extend beyond our neighborhood.  But it has to start here.

It already started.  The skyway project you're selling has already made it into the mobility plan, so a long term funding mechanism and structure is in place for it.  It took us about five years to get to this point, so now we all need to see it through and this is where your help has been beneficial in selling it to the business community that will be impacted by it.

Quote

Quote from: thelakelander on March 13, 2011, 08:54:48 AM
The clock is ticking.  

Yes it is - so why not get ready for a full-court press?  Why not advertise?  And it doesn't mean that we advertise to pump people up about JTA.  Let's get together sometime and talk about it.  Too much to cover for an online discussion.

There's nothing wrong with an advertising campaign as long as it doesn't become a priority over the central focus of immediate system improvement and better utilization of the assets and funding we already have in place.  If not, an ad campaign to suburbanites for a bad product can be damaging to the overall goal.  Another thing to keep in mind, is what would the ad campaign to suburbanites be for?  Just education in general or a future request for additional tax dollars for a massive mass transit project?  Let's get together soon (perhaps at one of our Monday meeting nights) to discuss in greater detail.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 13, 2011, 10:33:26 AM
There's nothing wrong with an advertising campaign as long as it doesn't become a priority over the central focus of immediate system improvement and better utilization of the assets and funding we already have in place.

They have to work together to be effective.  Sometimes one may be in front of the other and then the roles reverse.  I'm not an expert but from where I sit, just having public workshops isn't getting enough people excited about it.

Quote
If not, an ad campaign to suburbanites for a bad product can be damaging to the overall goal.  Another thing to keep in mind, is what would the ad campaign to suburbanites be for?  Just education in general or a future request for additional tax dollars for a massive mass transit project?

Again, I'm not an expert on marketing, but I think that there should be some general education efforts.  At least that is where it starts.  Planting the seed in their minds.  We would not want to start with specifics.  The idea is to get people thinking "what if there is another way?"  Then guess who provides the answer to that question.

Just an educational campaign that lets people know things like.  When the 50 million dollar First Union (Wachovia) building went up and started paying property tax and employing people they sited the Skyway proximity as a contributing factor. Similar stories with the Hilton Gardens and many others in the area.  people do not realize the biggest benefit of the skyway is not the fares collected. They really don't.

That can and should already be done. This should continue to occur as improvements are being made to the existing system. Advertising, as described above, would fall into better "utilization of existing system assets" category.

Quote from: JeffreyS on March 13, 2011, 12:08:05 PM
Just an educational campaign that lets people know things like.  When the 50 million dollar First Union (Wachovia) building went up and started paying property tax and employing people they sited the Skyway proximity as a contributing factor. Similar stories with the Hilton Gardens and many others in the area.  people do not realize the biggest benefit of the skyway is not the fares collected. They really don't.

I think this is very true..........they are called the intangibles...........very hard for the average citizen to understand.

That's why the brainwashing continues to be:

Quotesmaller government and lower taxes

THAT is why public transportation gets the short shrift.

You'll have convince JTA first. Mass transit, especially rail based, isn't their top priority at the moment. Road construction, becoming an RTA, winning federal BRT money and an office building at the JTC all rank higher. If you can get them on board, you'll have an advertising budget to work with.

Quote from: FayeforCure on March 13, 2011, 02:32:00 PM

Quote from: JeffreyS on March 13, 2011, 12:08:05 PM
When the 50 million dollar First Union (Wachovia) building went up and started paying property tax and employing people they sited the Skyway proximity as a contributing factor. Similar stories with the Hilton Gardens and many others in the area.  people do not realize the biggest benefit of the skyway is not the fares collected. They really don't.

I think this is very true..........they are called the intangibles...........very hard for the average citizen to understand.

That's why the brainwashing continues to be:

Quotesmaller government and lower taxes

THAT is why public transportation gets the short shrift.

Well it must just be "Another Pleasant Valley Sunday, Charcoal burning everywhere, Rows of houses that are all the same, And no one seems to care..." Faye and I agree on something.

If I can find it I'll post a photo or two of an education program just like your talking about... TRANSIT 101, right here in JACKSONVILLE!

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 13, 2011, 09:54:59 AM

Quote from: tufsu1 on March 12, 2011, 10:55:29 PM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 12, 2011, 10:33:12 PM
There are no 50 million passengers coming out of OIA, OIA says it's more like 18 million a year.

nice try, but you're only looking at enplanements (i.e., boardings)....the reality is that airports assume that every person boarding is also equated by a passenger disembarking...so the real # for total passengers at OIA (the largest passenger airport in FL) was 36 million in 2007...and yes, it is expected that by 2030, OIA will carry more than 50 million passengers.

for comparison, Jax. had about 6 million passengers in 2007 and 2008

Is that 14 Million passenger gap really going to close in the current economy or shall we gamble and risk the future of the entire passenger rail industry on what you hope will happen?  

sure...growth from 36 million to 50 million is only 2% per year (from 2011 to 2030)....seems entirely reasonable since air traffic has stabilized and is trending up again....and the Orlando area population was growing at rates faster than that up until a few years ago.

Not to mention that the airport also serves Polk and Brevard residents (1.1 million combined). Florida's 2010 census numbers are expected to be released this week. I fully expect metro Polk's growth rate to be higher than metro Orlando's over the last decade. On the other hand, Brevard may take a hit going forward, with the closing of the space program.

Yeah right Boys, so I'll post a sign above the work site that says, "Florida High Speed - King of the Rails..."
I'll walk away from this fools errand and wash my hands. "I am innocent of the death of American High Speed Rail."


OCKLAWAHA

I doubt they get anything but if they do, the gift is in the infrastructure. Even down the center of I-4, it would serve more tourist and commuters as commuter rail. If issued for RFP, I would be interested to see if a group would propose a hybrid system with local and express trains?  Also, if this thing were extended to the coast, via the Bee Line, I wonder if it would be possible to ship freight from Port Canaveral to Central Florida on it?

See my musings on my post at:
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,11471.msg208869/topicseen.html#new

We're back on the same page.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: thelakelander on March 12, 2011, 09:12:39 AM
Of course they should bid on their own and I wish them the best of luck on their endeavors down there in Central Florida. Unfortunately, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.

1. The ROW is owned by the State.  Scott has already said he will refuse to work with them.

2. I can't imagine USDOT awarding only one entity the $2.4 billion.  The project is probably a no go, assuming they win a small percentage of the grand total the state just sent back to Washington.

The fact is, they are screwed, Sunrail is screwed, Tri-Rail is screwed, FEC/Amtrak is screwed and Jax commuter rail is a no go as long as Scott is in Tallahassee.  We might as well stop dreaming and face reality.  Nothing significant on any level is going to happen the next couple of years.  We might as well use this indefinite delay to improve what we already have locally and to get this done, its going to mean electing a mayor who will at least acknowledge the importance of mass transit on our communities.

As mentioned a few days ago, I believe this effectively kills the Florida plan.  It doesn't appear that one applicant will win a lump sum of $2.4 billion.  Instead, the money will be piecemealed.

QuoteThe $2.4 billion of HSIPR funding returned from Florida will go through a new round of applications. US DOT press release is at http://www.dot.gov/affairs/2011/dot2911.html.

" U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood today announced that he is making available approximately $2.4 billion, through a competitive process, to states eager to develop high-speed rail corridors across the United States"

States have until 8 PM on April 4 to submit new applications (well, revised and tweaked versions of what they submitted before). There are 2 pots of funding: $1.63 billion from the stimulus which requires no state matching, and $800 million from FY10 which will require at least 20% state matching. The applicants are not to be concerned as to which pot the funding comes from, the FRA will decide how to allocate the funding. Applicants are encouraged to put up state matching because that will be a factor in the evaluation process.

FRA material is at http://www.fra.dot.gov/rpd/passenger/477.shtml.

Why would anyone want to ride a train between Tampa and Orlando?  It's an hour long drive, and you need a car to get around everywhere the train would go, so why not just drive and avoid the hassle?

The biggest users seem to me would be people going to Disney from OIA.  Let Disney extend a monorail line to the airport o take care of that.

As long as JTA is using local dollars or its share of federal dollars to fund the Commuter Rail studies, there really isn't much Scott can do. Planning will still move forward.

Quote from: acme54321 on March 14, 2011, 08:48:46 AM
Why would anyone want to ride a train between Tampa and Orlando?

I-4 is a parking lot and all of the cities are agressively working to improve their local transit operations. By the time HSR would come online, they would already have reliable local transit in place.  In addition, the actual project extends to Miami.  Tampa to Orlando was just phase 1.  Phase 2 to Port Canaveral and South Florida was in design and expected to be in operation three years after phase 1 opened.

QuoteIt's an hour long drive, and you need a car to get around everywhere the train would go, so why not just drive and avoid the hassle?

Because I-4 is an unreliable parking lot and conditions are getting worse everyday.  The cheapest option available is the upgrade mass transit infrastructure to serve as an alternative mobility option to driving.

QuoteThe biggest users seem to me would be people going to Disney from OIA.  Let Disney extend a monorail line to the airport o take care of that.

The region is growing together.  Before Jax fills out Duval County, all of those metro's urban areas will connect and form a continuous line.  Planning and investing in rail-based infrastructure allows that future growth to be sustainable and walkable.  Continuing to ignore the issue of road expansion being unsustainable will cost them billions more while only promoting more taxpayer money draining sprawl.

Quote from: fsujax on March 14, 2011, 08:57:43 AM
As long as JTA is using local dollars or its share of federal dollars to fund the Commuter Rail studies, there really isn't much Scott can do. Planning will still move forward.

Does JTA have local or federal money to spend on planning?  Nevertheless, at some point unless we're going to pay for implementation 100% with local money, we'll need state assistance in making our bids for federal grants competitive with other regions across the country.

Yes. You are right to an extent, at some point we will need State support, unless we as a region decide this is something will fund on our own, with federal assistance.

Quote from: acme54321 on March 14, 2011, 08:48:46 AM
Why would anyone want to ride a train between Tampa and Orlando?  It's an hour long drive, and you need a car to get around everywhere the train would go, so why not just drive and avoid the hassle?

The biggest users seem to me would be people going to Disney from OIA.  Let Disney extend a monorail line to the airport o take care of that.

The world does not just grow to be perfect for rail travel.  You design and implement infrastructure like rail and the world conforms to it.

Quote from: FayeforCure on March 12, 2011, 03:11:46 PM

Quote
“If there’s any opportunity for us to revive high speed rail and bring it to Florida, we should explore it,” said Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio. “I need more facts. But in talking to our attorneys about it we have felt all along that we could create an entity between the cities that could receive the funds.”

The coalition, though, will still need cooperation from Scott.

The right-of-way for the tracks, largely along Interstate 4, belongs to the state. And technical assistance will need to come from the Florida Department of Transportation, which is under Scott’s control.

“It’s an arm of the government that would have to be helpful,” Iorio said. “Just as they are helpful if we do a road project. At some point it would get to the point of absurdity if they help with roads and bike paths and expressways but they won’t be helpful with a multi-billion dollar project an entity wants to do in conjunction with the private sector.”



Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/11/2110945/high-speed-rail-in-florida-still.html#ixzz1GPyAwg6U

Go Pam, Paula and Audrey for calling out the sillies!!

Yay for Paula, for the courage to say it like it is:

QuoteOne difficulty is that Scott has the final say over Florida's ready-to-build rail rights-of-way in the median of Interstate 4. They are controlled by the Florida Department of Transportation. The department reports to Scott.

Following his Jan. 4 inauguration, Scott repeatedly said he would withhold judgment on high-speed rail until he could see a feasibility study that was nearly complete. At the time of his Feb. 16 rail rejection, the study was incomplete and Scott had not seen it.

Wednesday, the Florida Department of Transportation released the study. It shows a profit of $10.2 million in the first year, 2016, and a profit of $28.6 million in the 10th year. A Scott spokeswoman now says he does not trust the feasibility study, reports the St. Petersburg Times.

State Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, criticized Scott. She claimed he put a "gag order" on the study to delay its release, the Times reported.

Considering Scott's proclivity for finding aspects of rail to oppose, the city coalition should focus from the start on getting a pledge of cooperation.

http://www.theledger.com/article/20110313/COLUMNISTS0308/103135011/1001/BUSINESS?p=2&tc=pg



That "Obamarail" just sounds too offensive.

Maybe if we call it ScottRail, Scott could go for it ;)

QuoteThat "Obamarail" just sounds too offensive.

Maybe if we call it ScottRail, Scott could go for it

You might be on to something Faye.

Let's make it his idea, and have the fund grant Scott a million bucks personally. Call it a consulting fee.

That might tickle his fancy.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 14, 2011, 09:13:22 AM

Quote from: acme54321 on March 14, 2011, 08:48:46 AM
Why would anyone want to ride a train between Tampa and Orlando?

I-4 is a parking lot and all of the cities are agressively working to improve their local transit operations. By the time HSR would come online, they would already have reliable local transit in place.

QuoteIt's an hour long drive, and you need a car to get around everywhere the train would go, so why not just drive and avoid the hassle?

With Florida's track record I highly doubt we'd have world class mass transit ANYWHERE, remember the statement "bus rapid transit has a higher capacity then trains...at 2 second headways," and this was made stone cold serious. FDOT, HART, SUN, LYNX, VOLTRAN, etc none of them are even close and it would take another couple of billion to get them up to speed.

QuoteBecause I-4 is an unreliable parking lot and conditions are getting worse everyday.  The cheapest option available is the upgrade mass transit infrastructure to serve as an alternative mobility option to driving.

We agree 100%! I-4 is a disaster, and mass transit is the answer, not a medium distance sprinter like HSR, rather a sensible "Coaster", "Metrolink" or "Sounder" perhaps even feeding into Orlando from the South and West, and then a rocket sled to Jax-and on to NYC. In ANY CASE WE NEED THE COMMUTE AND REGIONAL TRAINS FIRST.

Quote

QuoteThe biggest users seem to me would be people going to Disney from OIA.  Let Disney extend a monorail line to the airport o take care of that.

The region is growing together.  Before Jax fills out Duval County, all of those metro's urban areas will connect and form a continuous line.  Planning and investing in rail-based infrastructure allows that future growth to be sustainable and walkable.  Continuing to ignore the issue of road expansion being unsustainable will cost them billions more while only promoting more taxpayer money draining sprawl.

Exactly Lake, and the HSR project would have only promoted Sprawl, and those folks on I-4, except perhaps between Lakeland and Tampa, would have had very little incentive to blow $60 RT + car rental in order to save 30 minutes (but what in practice would add another 50 minutes to the trip). While the tourist at Disney and I-Drive would be able to get to Disney, the banker, the insurance guy, and the soccer moms were SOL on the north end.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 14, 2011, 01:16:19 PM
With Florida's track record I highly doubt we'd have world class mass transit ANYWHERE, remember the statement "bus rapid transit has a higher capacity then trains...at 2 second headways," and this was made stone cold serious. FDOT, HART, SUN, LYNX, VOLTRAN, etc none of them are even close and it would take another couple of billion to get them up to speed.

Their local systems may not be world class compared to some place like NYC but it won't mean that riders in this region are forced to rent cars upon their arrival at their stations either.

QuoteWe agree 100%! I-4 is a disaster, and mass transit is the answer, not a medium distance sprinter like HSR, rather a sensible "Coaster", "Metrolink" or "Sounder" perhaps even feeding into Orlando from the South and West, and then a rocket sled to Jax-and on to NYC. In ANY CASE WE NEED THE COMMUTE AND REGIONAL TRAINS FIRST.

True, but there is no reason you can't run intercity and commuter rail in the form of express and local trains on the same infrastructure either.

QuoteExactly Lake, and the HSR project would have only promoted Sprawl, and those folks on I-4, except perhaps between Lakeland and Tampa, would have had very little incentive to blow $60 RT + car rental in order to save 30 minutes (but what in practice would add another 50 minutes to the trip). While the tourist at Disney and I-Drive would be able to get to Disney, the banker, the insurance guy, and the soccer moms were SOL on the north end.

Regarding HSR, most of the land along I-4 is already vested and a significant amount is already been or in development.  With that said, they have a choice.  They can do nothing, keep expanding highways or invest in mass transit.  Options 1 and 2 will encourage more automobile oriented sprawl and unsustainable development in all three metropolitan areas.  Option 3, regardless of whether its I-4 or the CSX line (if it becomes an option), will spur more compact infill and new development.  As for the local transit options, I believe Tampa's TECO Streetcar has demonstrated what type of development follows rail-based infrastructure.  If Sunrail survives, expect to see a similar development pattern take place in urban Orlando and the downtowns of nearby satellite cities.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 14, 2011, 01:28:21 PM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 14, 2011, 01:16:19 PM
With Florida's track record I highly doubt we'd have world class mass transit ANYWHERE, remember the statement "bus rapid transit has a higher capacity then trains...at 2 second headways," and this was made stone cold serious. FDOT, HART, SUN, LYNX, VOLTRAN, etc none of them are even close and it would take another couple of billion to get them up to speed.

Their local systems may not be world class compared to some place like NYC but it won't mean that riders in this region are forced to rent cars upon their arrival at their stations either.

People rent cars in NYC too... Bottom line I believe we agree that Florida is light years behind "world class," and horribly behind most of the rest of the USA, to wit:

...And these are just the Amtrak contracted services, there are many more operators out there - but not here.

QuoteState Support

Fifteen states contract with Amtrak for the operation of trains that supplement the national Amtrak network by extending the reach of passenger rail services or provide additional frequencies on Amtrak routes. State and regional agencies pay most of the operating costs of these services, not covered by farebox revenues. Continued operation of these state-supported routes is subject to annual contracts and state Legislative appropriations, along with Amtrak financial participation. In addition to operating funds, many of these states also provide funds for infrastructure or other capital improvements to Amtrak routes in their states.

Routes on which some or all of the trains are state-supported are:

    *
      California: Capitol Corridor service (San Jose-Auburn), Pacific Surfliner service (San Luis Obispo-San Diego); and San Joaquin service (Bakersfield-Sacramento/Oakland, plus an extensive system of connecting Amtrak Thruway Motorcoach routes
    *
      Illinois: Hiawatha Service (Chicago-Milwaukee), Lincoln Service (Chicago-St. Louis), Illini & Saluki (Chicago-Carbondale) and Illinois Zephyr & Carl Sandburg (Chicago-Quincy)
    *
      Maine: Downeaster (Portland-Boston)
    *
      Michigan: Blue Water (Port Huron-East Lansing-Chicago) and Pere Marquette (Grand Rapids-Chicago)
    *
      Missouri: Missouri River Runner (Kansas City-St. Louis)
    *
      New York: Adirondack (New York City-Montreal, QC.)
    *
      North Carolina: Carolinian (Charlotte-New York City) and Piedmont (Raleigh-Charlotte)
    *
      Oklahoma: Heartland Flyer (Oklahoma City-Fort Worth)
    *
      Oregon: Amtrak Cascades service (Eugene-Portland-Seattle-Vancouver, B.C.)
    *
      Pennsylvania: Keystone Corridor service (Harrisburg-Philadelphia-New York City)
    *
      Texas: Heartland Flyer (Fort Worth-Oklahoma City)
    *
      Vermont: Ethan Allen Express (Rutland-New York City) and Vermonter (St. Albans-Washington)
    *
      Virginia: Extended Northeast Regional service to Lynchburg (since October, 2009) and additional Northeast Regional services to Richmond (July, 2010)
    *
      Washington: Amtrak Cascades service (Vancouver, B.C.-Seattle-Portland-Eugene)
    *
      Wisconsin: Hiawatha Service (Milwaukee-Chicago)

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia make payments to Amtrak through transit agencies or state transportation departments for use of the Amtrak-owned Northeast Corridor facilities by commuter trains. These agencies or states also provide other funding on the Northeast Corridor, including capital funds for infrastructure and/or stations. Amtrak has agreements for access and/or maintenance where Amtrak trains operate over locally-owned portions of the Northeast Corridor in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York.
Contract Commuter Service

Amtrak operates more contract commuter services than any other company; currently, Amtrak provides either services and access for 14 commuter agencies.

    * Amtrak currently provides commuter service for the following state and regional authorities:

          o Caltrain (Bay Area California)
          o MARC (Maryland Area Regional Commuter)
          o Shore Line East (Connecticut)
          o Metrolink (Southern California)

    * Amtrak provides services of various types for three other agencies:

          o Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (Maintenance of way and dispatching)
          o Sound Transit (Seattle - Maintenance of equipment)
          o Florida Regional Transportation Authority (Tri-Rail - dispatching)

    * Amtrak provides access (and in some cases, other services) for seven other agencies:

          o Long Island Railroad
          o New Jersey Transit
          o SEPT (Philadelphia)
          o Metra (Chicago)
          o DELDOT (operated by SEPTA)
          o RIDOT (operated by MBTA)
          o Virginia Railway Express

Quote

QuoteWe agree 100%! I-4 is a disaster, and mass transit is the answer, not a medium distance sprinter like HSR, rather a sensible "Coaster", "Metrolink" or "Sounder" perhaps even feeding into Orlando from the South and West, and then a rocket sled to Jax-and on to NYC. In ANY CASE WE NEED THE COMMUTE AND REGIONAL TRAINS FIRST.

True, but there is no reason you can't run intercity and commuter rail in the form of express and local trains on the same infrastructure either.

Absolutely, which is why these trains need to be on the CSX through much of their route, and not miles north of the core communities.

Quote

QuoteExactly Lake, and the HSR project would have only promoted Sprawl, and those folks on I-4, except perhaps between Lakeland and Tampa, would have had very little incentive to blow $60 RT + car rental in order to save 30 minutes (but what in practice would add another 50 minutes to the trip). While the tourist at Disney and I-Drive would be able to get to Disney, the banker, the insurance guy, and the soccer moms were SOL on the north end.

Regarding HSR, most of the land along I-4 is already vested and a significant amount is already been or in development.  With that said, they have a choice.  They can do nothing, keep expanding highways or invest in mass transit.  Options 1 and 2 will encourage more automobile oriented sprawl and unsustainable development in all three metropolitan areas.  Option 3, regardless of whether its I-4 or the CSX line (if it becomes an option), will spur more compact infill and new development.  As for the local transit options, I believe Tampa's TECO Streetcar has demonstrated what type of development follows rail-based infrastructure.  If Sunrail survives, expect to see a similar development pattern take place in urban Orlando and the downtown's of nearby satellite cities.

Certainly of the two projects, SUNRAIL was heads and shoulders above the HSR as a feasible work-a-day railroad. Again I agree, and I expect Scott to turn up the heat in the highway kitchen...wouldn't surprise me if the outer beltway came roaring back fully funded! As Faye has pointed out, he is solidly indebted to asphalt and concrete... Look for new lanes, new roads, new turnpikes and lots and lots of pavement. The agenda for the next four years is going to be "develop-develop-develop," and bury as much of what is left of the natural Florida as fast as possible. SPRAWL UNHINDERED! SUNRAIL and/or the FEC-AMTRAK deal might survive, but again, I wouldn't bet on it. Also as part of that same agenda, watch for the transit agencies to be robbed (like the schools, and parks), and starved to the brink of extinction...SO MUCH FOR WORLD CLASS TRANSIT.  Jacksonville alone may have the solution!

OCKLAWAHA

Jacksonville is where Florida begins. Jacksonville may be the last hope for redemption to Florida's death spiral of issues.

-Josh

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 14, 2011, 01:56:28 PM
Absolutely, which is why these trains need to be on the CSX through much of their route, and not miles north of the core communities.

What happens in the event that they can't use the CSX corridor or its cost prohibitive?  What you be your alternative?

QuoteExactly Lake, and the HSR project would have only promoted Sprawl, and those folks on I-4, except perhaps between Lakeland and Tampa, would have had very little incentive to blow $60 RT + car rental in order to save 30 minutes (but what in practice would add another 50 minutes to the trip). While the tourist at Disney and I-Drive would be able to get to Disney, the banker, the insurance guy, and the soccer moms were SOL on the north end.

It only had 5 stations and three (DT Tampa, OIA and International Drive) of them are in built out locations.  The Lakeland site is going to be a walkable community regardless of whether HSR comes or not and Disney is Disney.  Thus, phase one of HSR would not have done anything but place infill walkable development in DT Tampa, USF Poly (Lakeland) and I-Drive.  

If the converstation could have changed from "what's wrong with I-4 as a HSR corridor" to "how do we take advantage of new rail infrastructure connecting Central Florida metropolitan areas, a modified service plan of express and local trains would have been attractive for local residents.  Such a plan would have allowed for the creation of additional stops at several destinations along the corridor.  These could have included the Seminole Hard Rock Casino, Florida State Fairgrounds/Amphitheater, Posner Park, Champion's Gate, Celebration, Prime Outlets at Lake Buena Vista, Sea World and Florida Mall.  I have no doubt in my mind that a line hitting these destinations directly with DT Tampa, Disney and OIA would have had a great chance at success by appealing to both tourist and everyday residents.  This tied in with Sunrail would have also provided direct connectivity to DT Orlando, Florida Hospital, Winter Park and a host of urban destinations along the CSX corridor in Orlando.

QuoteCertainly of the two projects, SUNRAIL was heads and shoulders above the HSR as a feasible work-a-day railroad. Again I agree, and I expect Scott to turn up the heat in the highway kitchen...wouldn't surprise me if the outer beltway came roaring back fully funded! As Faye has pointed out, he is solidly indebted to asphalt and concrete... Look for new lanes, new roads, new turnpikes and lots and lots of pavement. The agenda for the next four years is going to be "develop-develop-develop," and bury as much of what is left of the natural Florida as fast as possible. SPRAWL UNHINDERED! SUNRAIL and/or the FEC-AMTRAK deal might survive, but again, I wouldn't bet on it. Also as part of that same agenda, watch for the transit agencies to be robbed (like the schools, and parks), and starved to the brink of extinction...SO MUCH FOR WORLD CLASS TRANSIT.  Jacksonville alone may have the solution!

I certainly hope that all of Florida's transit dreams don't end up relying on Jax.  If so, this state is toast.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 14, 2011, 03:59:24 PM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 14, 2011, 01:56:28 PM
Absolutely, which is why these trains need to be on the CSX through much of their route, and not miles north of the core communities.

What happens in the event that they can't use the CSX corridor or its cost prohibitive?  What you be your alternative?

Two points to consider using the carrot and stick routine:

There has never been a railroad that didn't make money by moving cars, we often get so hung up on the legalities, costs, threats, sword rattling, and general bull shit that we miss this. You approach them with a question, "We have this many cars, and we want them to move from here to here, on this schedule...HOW MUCH? 

There has never been a railroad that wouldn't fall all over itself to gain some of the benefits of highway carriers, such as State paid capacity expansion, or the new PTS - Positive Train Control which is mandated by Congress but NOT FUNDED... Basically it involves replacing every signal and the related control system over the entire 21,000 mile system. Oh probably around 21,000 signals to replace + new installation (in cab signals) in 4,100 locomotives. "Pssst...Hey CSX, SUCH A DEAL!" The Sunrail improvements in Jaxport and Winter Haven + capacity increases on the "S" are exactly what is going to get their undivided attention.

The Stick? Glad you asked, the one word every railroad fears more then the devil himself - RE-REGULATION! Florida Public Service Commission, disbanded during deregulation? How'd you like to revisit this CSX? Taxes and Tariff's? Hey we are a state after all... How about we require that you spin off the ENTIRE "A" LINE... I can see it now, NORFOLK SOUTHERN at Rockport... I bring this up only because I don't think it would EVER go that far, when you come into the room "packing heat," and they know we're dead serious, they'll play trains.

The idea that CSX, FEC, NS, THE BAY LINE, FLORIDA CENTRAL, FIRST COAST, OR FLORIDA NORTHERN won't play trains, is just one more aspect of the HSR PROGRAM THAT WAS BOGUS.  The way this thing reads in the documentation and from the comments from some of the planners I think it went like this:

Door swings open in Chairman and President Michael Wards office... "Mr. Ward, this is Mr. USTUF of the Florida High Speed Rail project."  "Glad to meet you Mr. USTUF, what can I help you with today?"  "Well you know, Tallahassee, a bunch of us are going to build this railroad down the middle of I-4 and someone sez 'Hey you boys better make sure the railroad won't run the trains or the public is going to eat y'all alive' so I thought I'd better come in and ask you. Can we run hourly 150 mph trains on your track between Orlando and Tampa? Can we? Oh can we?

LONG SILENCE...

"CLICK"

"Hello Security, yeah, this is Mike, how long will it take you to get a couple of railroad police officers up here?"

Quote

QuoteExactly Lake, and the HSR project would have only promoted Sprawl, and those folks on I-4, except perhaps between Lakeland and Tampa, would have had very little incentive to blow $60 RT + car rental in order to save 30 minutes (but what in practice would add another 50 minutes to the trip). While the tourist at Disney and I-Drive would be able to get to Disney, the banker, the insurance guy, and the soccer moms were SOL on the north end.

It only had 5 stations and three (DT Tampa, OIA and International Drive) of them are in built out locations.  The Lakeland site is going to be a walkable community regardless of whether HSR comes or not and Disney is Disney.  Thus, phase one of HSR would not have done anything but place infill walkable development in DT Tampa, USF Poly (Lakeland) and I-Drive.

True, WAY TOO MANY for effective or successful HSR. And there was talk of a "wild card station" somewhere west of Disney, two Polk stations, or some future station, so I'd say M/L knowing there is a shot at yet another station, Leesburg will come charging down US-27, Kissimmee will burst north and swallow Disney. Celebration will fuse with Auburndale will fuse with Lakeland will fuse with Lakeland etc... and the entire mass will surge northward until I-4 and not the historic core rail line is the "new center."  Yeah, it would take a lifetime, but why even set that up when we have a perfectly good alternative?  

QuoteIf the converstation could have changed from "what's wrong with I-4 as a HSR corridor" to "how do we take advantage of new rail infrastructure connecting Central Florida metropolitan areas, a modified service plan of express and local trains would have been attractive for local residents.  Such a plan would have allowed for the creation of additional stops at several destinations along the corridor.  These could have included the Seminole Hard Rock Casino, Florida State Fairgrounds/Amphitheater, Posner Park, Champion's Gate, Celebration, Prime Outlets at Lake Buena Vista, Sea World and Florida Mall.  I have no doubt in my mind that a line hitting these destinations directly with DT Tampa, Disney and OIA would have had a great chance at success by appealing to both tourist and everyday residents.  This tied in with Sunrail would have also provided direct connectivity to DT Orlando, Florida Hospital, Winter Park and a host of urban destinations along the CSX corridor in Orlando.

Here's the catch, you will not be successful in stringing a corridor of cities together and then anchoring them on the north to an amusement park, tourist trap and an airport, especially when that airport is off center and quite south of the main mass of the northern anchor urbanized area. A further item of consideration is ask any family the frequencies they go to work, go to church, go shopping, go to entertainment each day or week, and compare that with the frequencies that you must go to the airport... If I can sell you 50 tickets from CHURCH STREET STATION to DOWNTOWN LAKELAND, for every 1 ticket to the airport, the airport loses.

That said, I still like connecting the airport with the HSR, just not the other way around. So we lay in a FAST LRT LINE from the airport to I-Drive, Celebration, Prime Outlets at Lake Buena Vista, Sea World and Florida Mall. The idea of a "Connection" to complete a relatively short - simple trip completely defeats the speed of HSR in that corridor. In other words the HSR MUST GO WHERE THE CENTER OF POPULATIONS CAN BE FOUND, while the LRT-MONORAIL-COMMUTER RAIL etc... have the luxury of serving all of the "accessories to life." HSR should focus on the necessities of serious travel.

Quote

QuoteJacksonville alone may have the solution!

I certainly hope that all of Florida's transit dreams don't end up relying on Jax.  If so, this state is toast.

Well the mobility plan was created here, and didn't I hear that cities around the country are taking a look? If we get a progressive mayor, we could be in high cotton in Jacksonville.

OCKLAWAHA

How much would a ticket on this HSR from Tampa to Orlando cost?

cost was expected to be $30 - $40 round trip

Quote from: Ocklawaha on March 14, 2011, 08:07:44 PMTrue, WAY TOO MANY for effective or successful HSR. And there was talk of a "wild card station" somewhere west of Disney, two Polk stations, or some future station, so I'd say M/L knowing there is a shot at yet another station, Leesburg will come charging down US-27, Kissimmee will burst north and swallow Disney. Celebration will fuse with Auburndale will fuse with Lakeland will fuse with Lakeland etc... and the entire mass will surge northward until I-4 and not the historic core rail line is the "new center."  Yeah, it would take a lifetime, but why even set that up when we have a perfectly good alternative?

Express and local options solves this issue on both the CSX and I-4 corridors.  Plus, like or not, the area has already been engulfed by growth and the population center isn't focused on the historic hearts of little communities like Lake Alfred and Auburndale.  Those places are also some of the last in Central Florida that would accept infill high density development in the heart of the communities.  Train or no train, that pattern isn't going to change anytime soon.

Quote

QuoteIf the converstation could have changed from "what's wrong with I-4 as a HSR corridor" to "how do we take advantage of new rail infrastructure connecting Central Florida metropolitan areas, a modified service plan of express and local trains would have been attractive for local residents.  Such a plan would have allowed for the creation of additional stops at several destinations along the corridor.  These could have included the Seminole Hard Rock Casino, Florida State Fairgrounds/Amphitheater, Posner Park, Champion's Gate, Celebration, Prime Outlets at Lake Buena Vista, Sea World and Florida Mall.  I have no doubt in my mind that a line hitting these destinations directly with DT Tampa, Disney and OIA would have had a great chance at success by appealing to both tourist and everyday residents.  This tied in with Sunrail would have also provided direct connectivity to DT Orlando, Florida Hospital, Winter Park and a host of urban destinations along the CSX corridor in Orlando.

Here's the catch, you will not be successful in stringing a corridor of cities together and then anchoring them on the north to an amusement park, tourist trap and an airport, especially when that airport is off center and quite south of the main mass of the northern anchor urbanized area. A further item of consideration is ask any family the frequencies they go to work, go to church, go shopping, go to entertainment each day or week, and compare that with the frequencies that you must go to the airport... If I can sell you 50 tickets from CHURCH STREET STATION to DOWNTOWN LAKELAND, for every 1 ticket to the airport, the airport loses.

Here's the catch.

1. Your response continues to ignore the connectivity of local transit in Tampa, Orlando and Lakeland.

2. It ignores the actual plan of having the Miami extension open by 2018.

3. It ignores that development extends past central city boundaries in all of these communities.

4. It ignores the travel patterns of I-4 drivers being met in a express/local style of service set up.

QuoteThat said, I still like connecting the airport with the HSR, just not the other way around. So we lay in a FAST LRT LINE from the airport to I-Drive, Celebration, Prime Outlets at Lake Buena Vista, Sea World and Florida Mall. The idea of a "Connection" to complete a relatively short - simple trip completely defeats the speed of HSR in that corridor. In other words the HSR MUST GO WHERE THE CENTER OF POPULATIONS CAN BE FOUND, while the LRT-MONORAIL-COMMUTER RAIL etc... have the luxury of serving all of the "accessories to life." HSR should focus on the necessities of serious travel.

Why not kill multiple birds with one stone?  Money doesn't grow on trees these days.  Imo, no matter what the route is, it needs to be utilized for more than just HSR rail.

QuoteWell the mobility plan was created here, and didn't I hear that cities around the country are taking a look? If we get a progressive mayor, we could be in high cotton in Jacksonville.

A mobility plan isn't going to get you a $2.7 billion intercity rail line constructed.  You need federal or state money to pull a project that large off in a timely manner.  However, it can help cities improve local transit.  Nevertheless, if Scott doesn't screw things up, Tampa should have BRT and Orlando, commuter rail by 2015.  If we're lucky, we'll have a few more studies and a BRT line or two done by then.