Wintry precip and snow seem likely

[reednavy]

Well guys and gals, tonight seems to be one of two chances we in the Jax Metro area have to see sleet, with snow an over 50% possibility Friday night. Radar and observation trends show that virga, precip not reaching the ground, is currently pressing into the region. This will induce a process known as evaporative cooling, which enhances the chances of seeing sleet or snow reaching the ground. Sleet is currently being repoted as far east as Clarksville in Calhoun County and observations at Okaloosa Regional have been as well. Rain mixing w/sleet is occuring on Panama City Beach as well.

Now, it'll be early in the morning when the chance for any wintry mix is to occur, and locations around I-10 and northward have the best chances, but all have a slight chance at the least.

For tomorrow night, a lot is riding on where the low pressure comes ashore and then tracks across the peninsula. The further south, the better, but if too far south, it'll cut off the precip too soon before enough cold air can be advected to us. There is a good chance of accumulations around Waycross and Nahunta, as they'll be colder to begin with. There is a <20% chance of KJAX (JIA is where cliamte data is kept) of seeing accumulations of either sleet or snow, but not 0%. A lot of last minute features have to come together for this to occur, and even I have no clue of when this will happen. There may be no signs, and it could suddenly change over. If enough cold air can be worked in, I would highly recommend staying home Friday night, as black ice may become a concern. Even if that doesn't occur, it'll be bitterly cold, by FL standards, with winds of 15-20mph producing wind chills in the mid 20s and maybe lower.

Stay safe and take pics of any precip as this is a once or twice a decade chance.

[Bostech]

Are you sure?

[Bostech]

Lets see who got it more right.

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=112229&catid=3

Don't be like that guy from CNN,who said D.C. will get only 6 inches of snow.

[reednavy]

Apparently you didn't read the part where I said a lot of smaller features have to come together in this part of the world, or we get nothing at all.

However, tonight, I'm almost betting on seeing sleet in the metro area. Nearly all locations where the precip shield finally started mixing down have reported sleet, Tallahassee being the most recent. I am certain though that this will change to all rain after a few short hours, as all locations have as well.

You trust FCN? LMAO!

People that have been on here a while know that I have a rather good track record since I've been here, meteorologically speaking.

[reednavy]

Based on radar returns and soundings, I highly suspect sleet is moving into the western part of the metro area now, specifically around Macclenny, Jennings State Forest, and Camp Blanding. It is detectable in a feature called "brightbanding", where sleet, snow, or melting or the two cause higher returns in an area of lighter rain and/or mixed precip.

Sleet is also likely right now from Bradford County, westward to Perry in Taylor County on the Gulf Coast.

Expect this activity to continue moving in and becoming more common, but no accumulations are expected.

[Bostech]

I predict snow in NY.

[reednavy]

Sleeting in Mandarin now.

[gatorback]

Yey!  

[reednavy]

Yey!

This is so sad, I'm excited over sleet, lol.

[gatorback]

So sleet is possible at between 36 to 42 degrees?

[gatorback]

Yey!

This is so sad, I'm excited over sleet, lol.

Well, it's not much but it's all I have. This past hurricane season was a huge disappointment.  I'm looking forward to the 2010 season.  I'll start the thread and post the names on Valentines day so we can start our predications.  I think it's going to be a good year storm wise.

[reednavy]

So sleet is possible at between 36 to 42 degrees?

Oh yeah, hell, it can snow at 40. Evaporative cooling, a lower dew point, and other crap have to be in tandem to get it to happen, especially down here. Plus, the fact it is a lot colder aloft helps.

Hurricane season, it's been disappointing since 2005, imo. Oh, don;t even get me started on the tornado season, there was only one good event, the Good Friday Outbreak, April 9-10, which included an EF-4 in my hometown. The fall 2nd season didn't do shit, and have yet to see anything this winter so far.

[reednavy]

Well, it's not much but it's all I have. This past hurricane season was a huge disappointment.  I'm looking forward to the 2010 season.  I'll start the thread and post the names on Valentines day so we can start our predications.  I think it's going to be a good year storm wise.

If El Nino sticks around, like a number or long range models are expecting, along with myself, it may be dull, numebrs wise. Remember, 1992 was an El Nino year, then came Andrew, nuf said.

[civil42806]

Very unlikely, heading out from Mobile, here to jax, raining and cold, but no sleet or snow.  Expect a wet cold miserable day but no snow or sleet

[Keith-N-Jax]

I'm sorry but I am confused. After all the devastation, loss of life, loss of property over the past years of storms, were "disappointed". Help me to understand the thinking behind this. Hurricanes, Tornadoes, etc, these storms are nothing to play with and certainly nothing we should be hoping for. If you need a fix on high, go find a great white shark and rub his belly!