High Speed Rail: A No-Brainer

[FayeforCure]

From Faye :
Curiously a local congressman who is a so-called supporter of HSR ( primarily to take away and privatize Amtrak's most profitable route) is not among the 11 Congressmen from Florida supporting HSR. And you know, we've just got to have his back

Actually Faye, recent discoverys in Amtraks lousy bookkeeping, have shown that about 3 out of 4 audits have proved that the North East Corridor IS NOT the most profitable part of Amtrak. This was mostly the fault of a news media type error and somehow became "fact". You want to see a train that MAKES MONEY in the USA, go look at Auto-Train in Sanford, or Amtraks EMPIRE BUILDER between Chicago - Twin Cities - Portland/Seattle. I know that you Faye, and tufsu1, and God knows how many others might post 100 articles about the "profit from the NEC." Amtraks Crescent Limited NYC-NOL, is another example of long distance that works. One train each way daily, (and it should be 5 each way daily) covers the NYC-Washington, Washington-Alexandria, Alexandria-Charlotte, Charlotte-Atlanta, Atlanta-Birmingham, Birmingham-Meridian, Meridan-New Orleans. Every mile is part of a smaller corridor, and it's nearly impossible to book a seat or bedroom on this train.

OCKLAWAHA

Sorry, Ock, seems you have been reading too much Heritage Foundation BS.

It's not just tfsu1 and I that know the Acela is THE most profitable line Amtrak has:

The fastest passenger train in North America, Amtrak's Acela Express, now runs between Boston, New York and Washington, and is capable of reaching a top speed of about 240 km/h. But it often averages speeds of less than 140 km/h because of track conditions, conflicts with freight trains and other safety restrictions.


The electrified train, powered by an overhead wire, was a joint project by Alstom and Canadian-based Bombardier. It was brought into service in 2001 and soon became a money-making route for the government-owned, passenger-rail service.


"Amtrak as a whole is not profitable, but the Acela Express is and has been (profitable)," company spokesman Clifford Cole said.


The government spent nearly $2.6 billion U.S. to acquire equipment and build new infrastructure for the line, according to figures from a 2004 federal audit, but Amtrak officials estimate they would need billions of dollars in additional investments and agreements with track owners for the train to run at its maximum speeds.


Nevertheless, the improved speed and frequency of the new train allowed ridership on the route to go from 2.4 million passengers in 2000 (before the Acela train went into service), up to 3.4 million passengers in 2008.


Roelof Van Ark, a senior vice-president of Alstom Transport in North America, said that he is optimistic suppliers will soon see an increase in demand for other fast trains on the continent, partially as a result of the Obama administration's plan.


"Today, everyone knows that the European systems are very successful and we are very happy to share our knowledge of why those business cases worked with the future North American users of such systems," said Van Ark, who has worked in the transportation industry for more than 25 years.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Part+Four+Stimulus+funding+puts+California+track+high+speed+rail/1840584/story.html#

Clearly if we take the Acela from Amtrak, we leave Amtrak with only unprofitable business, which is precisely the intent of the known "Amtrak Hater."

[Ocklawaha]

Throughout the Century, "The 20Th Century Limited," passengers walked out to this train on this red carpet.


The Club Car, on the original 20Th Century Limited.


Skytop Observation Lounge Car, exclusive to the Milwaukee Roads, CHI-SEA, Olympia Hiawatha.

No Faye, communications error here: I said "THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR," as a whole, has proved to be a money loser, as opposed to the most of the long distance services. Pulling the Acela out of the Corridor as a profitable operation, and as an example of decent (not good) but decent Amtrak service at a profit, I'd agree. It's a niche market. There are hundreds of trains daily on that corridor + several branch corridors, there are only so many Acela trains. Other NEC lines such as north CT, East PA, West MA, NYC - ALB - BUF, BOS - ALB - BUF etc.seem forgotten by the media... The point being that taking a nice hard look at trains like the Silver Meteor, with a twist of the luxury of the opulent age of railroads, The Art Deco of the 1929 Paris Expo of decadent arts, and the America on top of the world themes of the 1950's, I think it would be magic.

You still with me? See, I'm not so mean.

You want to write the laws, and I want to design some train routes for you. Deal?

My vision for Amtrak is to NEVER AGAIN here the now common phrase, "I took THE Amtrak." The trains are so GI Issue they have melted into one big glob of red, white and blue, it's horrible, still better then 17" of Butt space on a plane, but horrible in perspective. Which cruise ship did you take? Do you ever hear, "Oh we took the Ship," When/if anyone reading this takes the kids to the beach while dad does some late office work downtown, do you talk on the cell phone and tell him, "Oh, I took THE car." "Uh? What car?" The minivan, sports coupe, or new Buick?? In our multi-car and multi-airline world nobody takes a generic ride or flight. At the very least I came in last night on Deltas Red Eye from LAX. 

Let's get creative and leap backwards for the answer to the longer distance routes. For example Amtrak-West took the chefs through their intensive high dollar gourmet academy's (all divisions do), but then brought them home and sent them to LA, SF, PDX, SEA, to learn the regional dishes under master chefs. Today when rolling through the Pacific Northwest on the Coast Starlight, one can feast on fresh Pacific Salmon, Yakina Bay Oysters, eat San Francisco Sour Dough bread, with Napa Valley Wines, and the final dinner into LA might be a Latin feast.

Just that little detail, a tiny and cheap change for the better, has created a waiting list for most departures. In fact if "Uncle Pete" aka: Union Pacific, would get out of Amtrak's way, we'd probably see a return of the old
"Shasta Daylight", "The Lark", "The Owl", to this route. Nobody EVER gets off the Coast Starlight with the drab, "I took THE Amtrak Line..." They step off feeling like royalty, and as they walk away, perhaps with their complimentary shined shoes, fresh morning paper, California OJ, SEA Coffee, and small first class gift basket of WA, OR, CA, goodies, they KNOW they rode THE COAST STARLIGHT!

Faye, NYC - Chicago, and NYC - Florida created this type of train travel, we need to get it back. No more GI issue trains.

OCKLAWAHA

[CS Foltz]

tufsu1 not changing my mind.........we appear to be discussing two different types of systems....HSR and Light Rail. Distances of 100 miles could be covered by HSR but that does not take into account stops on a 100 mile route. Getting up to speed is not the issue......being able to stop is, which is a simple matter of physics. Multiple stops defeats the purpose of HSR which should have as few stops as possible in order to cover that 100 mile distance in reasonable time. Light Rail is more appropriate since that type of system is geared towards stopping and starting.....so maybe we are discussing semantics more than a system discussion. Most agree that some sort of rail system is needed .....the bigger question is where to start? Orlando is not the best region to start I don't think for HSR......Jacksonville to Miami would be better test platform and give a better picture with options to expand in more directions with existing tracks allready in place. Orlando could be added from Miami direction or Jacksonville. It just doesn't make sense to me to start in the middle of the state and then try to expand in two directions at the same time. What I do know is quite simple.............Florida needs a rail system and we need it soon!

[tufsu1]

and you aren't changing my mind either....but I do find it interesting that you complain all the time about Jax. not having a plan or vision....and this HSR vision/plan has been in the works since the mid-70's yet you want to throw it out.

[tufsu1]

Here's a bunch of updated information on Florida's HSR plans....including financial and ridership data

http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/economicstimulus/hsr/

[lindab]

The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) submitted a Track 2 Application for High Speed Rail as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act "Vision for High Speed Rail in America" Program. FDOT is requesting $2.6 billion to fund the implementation of the Tampa to Orlando route, and another $30 million to advance planning on the Orlando-Miami route. (my emphasis)

If funding is awarded by year end 2009, Florida can begin the implementation of the first High Speed Rail Express system in the United States starting late in 2010. This is possible due to the extensive previous work performed in advancing High Speed Rail in the State, including the achievement of a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the Tampa-Orlando. FDOT has also offered $570 million of in-kind contribution based on its visionary preservation of the I-4 median for the purpose of building HSR. A Public Private Partnership is envisioned in which private entities will be offered the opportunity to operate and maintain the system for a long period in exchange for the ridership revenue from the system. Ridership projections updated for this application show substantial surpluses being produced from the system.     

[CS Foltz]

tufsu1 not trying to change your mind.........just trying to explain from my point of view. I find it interesting that all of a sudden Orlando is the region for enhancement when Jacksonville already has tracks in and out. To me it is a question of using what is available now and not having to spend money for tracks which are not even there yet. To me it is a question of cost effectiveness and making the most of our tax dollars. Orlando has not much of anything other than potential ridership and at $30 bucks a ride....not sure how viable that would be over the long haul. Spend 2.5 Billion for a maybe and spend that amount for something that is already in place? Tracks are here.........tracks are not there.........so which is more cost effective for the dollar?

[FayeforCure]

You want to write the laws, and I want to design some train routes for you. Deal?

My vision for Amtrak is to NEVER AGAIN here the now common phrase, "I took THE Amtrak." The trains are so GI Issue they have melted into one big glob of red, white and blue, it's horrible, still better then 17" of Butt space on a plane, but horrible in perspective. Which cruise ship did you take? Do you ever hear, "Oh we took the Ship," When/if anyone reading this takes the kids to the beach while dad does some late office work downtown, do you talk on the cell phone and tell him, "Oh, I took THE car." "Uh? What car?" The minivan, sports coupe, or new Buick?? In our multi-car and multi-airline world nobody takes a generic ride or flight. At the very least I came in last night on Deltas Red Eye from LAX. 

Let's get creative and leap backwards for the answer to the longer distance routes. For example Amtrak-West took the chefs through their intensive high dollar gourmet academy's (all divisions do), but then brought them home and sent them to LA, SF, PDX, SEA, to learn the regional dishes under master chefs. Today when rolling through the Pacific Northwest on the Coast Starlight, one can feast on fresh Pacific Salmon, Yakina Bay Oysters, eat San Francisco Sour Dough bread, with Napa Valley Wines, and the final dinner into LA might be a Latin feast.

Just that little detail, a tiny and cheap change for the better, has created a waiting list for most departures. In fact if "Uncle Pete" aka: Union Pacific, would get out of Amtrak's way, we'd probably see a return of the old
"Shasta Daylight", "The Lark", "The Owl", to this route. Nobody EVER gets off the Coast Starlight with the drab, "I took THE Amtrak Line..." They step off feeling like royalty, and as they walk away, perhaps with their complimentary shined shoes, fresh morning paper, California OJ, SEA Coffee, and small first class gift basket of WA, OR, CA, goodies, they KNOW they rode THE COAST STARLIGHT!

Faye, NYC - Chicago, and NYC - Florida created this type of train travel, we need to get it back. No more GI issue trains.

Agreed, though I'd like to caution that "leaping backwards for the answer to the longer distance routes" is tricky. Here is what happens when anti-HSR folks do that:

O'Toole's main fallacy. How does O'Toole "prove" that performance on the Northeast Corridor is the ceiling for High Speed Rail performance nationwide?

Its proof by assertion: "If trains in the most heavily populated corridor in the United States cannot cover their costs, no other trains will come close."

As is often the case, if you don't stop to think about it and don't know better, the claim seems plausible. However, in reality its a steaming pile of bullshit.

What the statement assumes is that no other transport operator will notice that there are all those people living in the Northeast. O'Toole is, in other words, assuming an incredible degree of stupidity on the part of private and public intercity bus operators, stupidity on the part of airline management, stupidity on the part of local intercity rail operators.

After all, think about demand in any market. Everything else equal, the more alternative choices available, the more responsive customers are to changes in prices, and so the less a seller can rely on margin per item and the harder they have to chase volume.

Suppose a region is as densely populated as the Northeast Corridor. What does that mean for the transport market? It means more options: a greater variety of more frequent transport services available. Airline shuttles, specialized intercity bus services, commuter rail services that run between distinct cities - there is a wide range of intercity transport options.

Now, compare it to a less densely populated region. Consider Ohio, which has an overall population density similar to Germany. Taking that notch down in population density means more expensive and less frequent commuter airline routes that would be shuttles in the Northeast. Taking that notch down in density means a once a day Greyhound through route operates where a higher population density would support multiple dedicated intercity bus routes.

Just in terms of private operators, taking the population density down a notch means that there are fewer transport services as an alternative to driving, and those that exist are much less frequent.

And that lower population density also means that there is less political demand for subsidies to alternatives to driving, which also translates into fewer local and state public subsidies for intercity transport.

The total transport market increases in size with population, but there are both positives and negatives in that for the financial performance of a High Speed Rail service. Which means it is absurd to make the claim that O'Toole does. Instead, you have to evaluate each corridor on a case by case basis.

So O'Toole's argument here (as is true so often) is little more than a bluff. He hopes that you follow along his argument as he has framed it, and accept an authoritatively stated claim as if it is self-evidently true.

Given how strongly O'Toole states his bluff, we can be confident that it is false to say "If trains in the most heavily populated corridor in the United States cannot cover their costs, no other trains will come close."

For intercity rail, the more likely truth is, "If High Speed Rail covers its operating cost in the most crowded intercity transport market in the US, we should find some corridors that can do even better."


Consider, for example, the Ohio Hub

One advantage of the "do another study" approach used by the Bush administration to delay the introduction of High Speed Rail is that a lot of these corridors have been quite extensively studied. So it is that the Ohio Hub has not only pretty maps to look at, but Sample Timetables available in its detailed modeling.

Consider a sample main afternoon Express service on the Triple C corridor:

Cleveland (dep): 2:00pm
Columbus: 3:38pm
Dayton: 4:33pm
Cincinnati: 5:28

Which is to say: Cleveland|Columbus in 1:38, Columbus|Cincinnati in 1:50, Columbus|Dayton, Dayton|Cincinnati: 0:55. For comparison, Google Maps gives driving time Cleveland|Columbus 2:20; Columbus|Cincinnati: 1:49; Columbus|Dayton: 1:17; and Dayton|Cincinnati: 0:55.

So with the Triple C tying together three 1m+ metro areas, it is most time competitive for Cleveland|Columbus, while on the Columbus|Cincinnati route, the 500K+ metro area of Dayton lies along the route to provide additional patronage.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/10/4/789665/-Sunday-Train:-Breaking-Free-of-the-Population-Density-Myth

This means that tying together muliple populations of 100,000 along the Tampa- Orlando route as lakelander wants is just not suitable for HSR. But then again lakelander doesn't want to start with HSR.

Using O'toole as a spokesperson on HSR is definitely not advisable, since he worked for the utra-conservative anti-public transportation CATO institute:

Randall O'Toole, working for The Cato Institute (Sourcewatch), recently completed another of his series of propaganda pieces against High Speed Rail, for the "Show-Me Institute".

Sourcewatch does not have much on the "Show-Me Institute", but it does note that in 2006, a contribution of $50,000 to the "Show-Me Institute" appeared in the annual report ... of the Cato Institute.

I am not going to force anyone to actually open up and wade through the blizzard of half truths, hypothetical «if this, then that» arguments where there is no reason to expect «this», and rhetorical flourishes in place of empirically grounded argument that makes up an O'Toole report. I'll wade in and pull out this thread of his argument:

Despite optimistic forecasts by rail proponents, passenger fares would rarely if ever cover high-speed operating costs. Amtrak operations currently cost federal and state taxpayers more than $1 billion per year.34 According to the bipartisan Amtrak Reform Council, Amtrak’s trains between Boston and Washington lost nearly $2.30 per passenger in 2001. [35] If trains in the most heavily populated corridor in the United States cannot cover their costs, no other trains will come close.

O'Toole's argument sounds remarkably similar to yours Ock  

[FayeforCure]

tufsu1 not trying to change your mind.........just trying to explain from my point of view. I find it interesting that all of a  To me it is a question of using what is available now and not having to spend money for tracks which are not even there yet. To me it is a question of cost effectiveness and making the most of our tax dollars. Orlando has not much of anything other than potential ridership and at $30 bucks a ride....not sure how viable that would be over the long haul. Spend 2.5 Billion for a maybe and spend that amount for something that is already in place? Tracks are here.........tracks are not there.........so which is more cost effective for the dollar?

Hmmm, I wonder why Germany was able to leap ahead of the US after WWII,.............could it have been because they had to rebuild everything from scratch because their entire country had been destroyed.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for recycling, but there are situations where it can make more sense to start from scratch with the latest technology. Nothing worse than outdated technology in some areas of our economy.

[thelakelander]

This means that tying together muliple populations of 100,000 along the Tampa- Orlando route as lakelander wants is just not suitable for HSR. But then again lakelander doesn't want to start with HSR.

I'm not against HSR.  As you stated, I don't believe the Tampa-Orlando corridor is the best fit for it.  This corridor really needs commuter rail to better accomodate both local and tourist movement.

[CS Foltz]

Faye that's easy.........called the "Marshall Plan".......did the same thing to Japan come to think of it! I do agree that our infrastructure is dated and antiquated for sure. Maybe you have a point with starting from scratch but we do have tracks in place that are being used on a daily basis for freight (CSX/FEC) so it should not be too much trouble to use same tracks for passenger service. Make use of what we have and go from there!

[tufsu1]

tufsu1 not trying to change your mind.........just trying to explain from my point of view. I find it interesting that all of a sudden Orlando is the region for enhancement when Jacksonville already has tracks in and out. To me it is a question of using what is available now and not having to spend money for tracks which are not even there yet. To me it is a question of cost effectiveness and making the most of our tax dollars. Orlando has not much of anything other than potential ridership and at $30 bucks a ride....not sure how viable that would be over the long haul. Spend 2.5 Billion for a maybe and spend that amount for something that is already in place? Tracks are here.........tracks are not there.........so which is more cost effective for the dollar?

In the near-term, that would definitely be the Tampa-Orlndo route using the I-4 median...remember that true HSR would likely require significant track upgrades....and then there's the grade-separated crossings....each one would be $5-$10 million to build (think of how many crossings there are on the FEC tracks in Duval and St. Johns County alone)....now remember that most of the roads crossing I-4 go over, meaning grade separation of the median is already in place.

As for ridership, I suggest you review the studies on the FDOT link I provided earlier today....there is also information on that same site regarding the FEC corridor rail project.

Finally, you note that freight is already using the FEC line....that's part of the problem.....there's no way to have true HSR when one doesn't own and control the tracks...especially when there is only one track!

[CS Foltz]

OK tufsu1......thanks for the link! Gives me an idea of what is going on but still question the validity of the initial start point............Orlando to St Pete/Tampa is pretty much of a stand alone system with expansion back to the east only problem with that I can see is you still have build bridges and crossovers on that eastern side in order to route south. You still end up with basically a stand alone system that is isolated from hooking up with other tracks...............so not sure that area is the ideal showplace for HSR! A system designed from scratch may be a better fit, but true HSR just doesn't appear to me to be one not in the proposed setting. That's just my take on the situation!

[tufsu1]

not true...the eastern leg uses either the Turnpike or the Beachline/I-95

btw...for those who don't want to sift through the studies, here's the bottom line on ridership projections

FEC (Jax - Miami) - 900,000 passengers in 2022 (assuming start-up in 2012) w/ 2 roundtrips per day
HSR (TPA - ORL) - 1.6 million intercity passengers + 1.1 million airport access passengers in 2020
HSR (TPA - MIA) - 7.6 million passengers in 2023 (seems to not include TPA-ORL passengers)

[thelakelander]

Is this 2.7 million passengers a year?  So that shakes out to roughly 7,397 riders a day in 2020?