High speed rail: Handicapping the U.S.

[thelakelander]

Here is a good article on handicapping the HSR corridors.

RailwayAge.com
By Douglas John Bowen, Managing Editor

The railroad supply community already has voted: It sees a huge potential business market being generated by the Obama Administration’s $8 billion “down payment” to finally get U.S. high speed rail movingâ€"“or moving again,” one industry observer notes cautiously.

Just who enters the HSR sweepstakes isn’t critical to the big players. Equipment suppliers such as Bombardier, Siemens, Alstom, and Ansaldo STS make it clear they’ll be in a bidding war for any given U.S. HSR project, if not every one. Even dark horses such as Madrid, Spain-based Patentes Talgo SA can’t be counted out, given the builder’s U.S. presence in the Pacific Northwest (through Amtrak’s Cascades service) and its recent contract with the state of Wisconsin.

...........

But where will the players play? The Administration says its geographic choices for HSR will be made on merit, not politics, but even polite skeptics note it’s possible to satisfy the first criterion while not slighting the potential political payback. Few industry voices will go on record predicting the rise of one U.S. HSR choice over another, but of the 10 candidates (11, counting the Northeast Corridor), four strong options have emerged as likely winners, based on industry comments encapsulating the current handicapping done behind the scenesâ€"an evaluation that could go out the window once the Federal Railroad Administration makes its recommendations this fall.

California Corridor: Budget crisis extraordinaire or not, Californians last fall committed $9.9 billion in state bonding capability to help fund a high speed route linking the Bay Area with Los Angeles and San Diegoâ€"the largest state commitment within the U.S. to date, and certain to sway the minds of sympathetic federal representatives, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the state’s U.S. Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, who have pledged to capture part of the $8 billion federal pie. Moreover, the state’s actual HSR planning process is in advanced stages. Finally, California’s geographic position is a clear counterweight to the Northeast Corridor, the sole U.S. passenger rail route that ranks by some (if not all) measures as “high speed.”

Chicago Hub Network: President Obama’s “home turf” candidate also carries several real advantages: The hub route serves several states, with numerous origin/destination pairs and a recognition of current rail service, however paltry, on many of the routes now served by Amtrak. Incremental improvements, such as raising speed limits on portions of the Chicago-St. Louis route from 5 mph to 40 mph, offer a large if unglamorous return on investment that could make “HSR” look good. The Hub also has benefited from solid and steady marketing legwork by the Midwest High Speed Rail Association, a 501(c)3 not-for-profit organization.

Florida Corridor: The Sunshine State has flubbed at least two attempts to implement a HSR network, with state officials overriding public sentiment in at least one instance and an early attempt at public-private partnership funding falling through. But the concept refuses to go away, and “they’ll get it right one of these days,” one observer notes. Add to that some realpolitikâ€"President Obama carried Florida in the 2008 election, but just barelyâ€"and Florida’s candidacy becomes a real possibility.

Northeast Corridor: It’s technically not a “candidate” for HSR, since by some measures it already measures up. But the Department of Transportation has acknowledged “opportunities for the Northeast Corridor from Washington to Boston to compete for funds,” and though the NEC suffers from at least a $3 billion backlog in infrastructure needs, a million here and there could offer demonstrable improvements to Amtrak’s showcase.

Those evaluating the remaining candidate routes are quick to note that all are feasible from a physical standpoint, but in many cases are burdened with a history of local disinterest, overcome only lately by state governments smelling federal funding and claiming they wanted HSR all along. Among these:

Pacific Northwest Corridor: Residents of Washington and Oregon, known for being environmentally conscious, have supported passenger rail and show a willingness to step up to HSR. But the corridor foresees Vancouver, British Columbia, as one anchor, and the two states, along with Amtrak, only resolved customs issues this summer with Canada on Amtrak’s existing skeletal service linking the two nations. International cooperation for HSR is possible, but problematic.

Southeast Corridor: It would serve the Southeast, but its best chance for implementation may be to “look north” to link with Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor. The ambititous size of the proposed route, stretching from Washington, D.C. to Jacksonville, Fla., and also to Atlanta, strikes some as too large a route structure. But its northern end, backed by pro-rail North Carolina and by Virginia, no stranger to federal largesse or to residual business benefits from the NEC, could bode well for part of the route.

Empire Corridor: New York State has approached CSX to seek a third track linking Buffalo and Albany, tieing the stretch to its “near-HSR” Albany-to-New York route. But the state has its own budget woes, and has postponed or shunned more modest increases for the route since the late 1980s.

Keystone Corridor: Amtrak trains also offer “near HSR” service between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s capital, and ridership has risenâ€"proof that incremental improvements can bolster demand. But a realistic upgrade to HSR standards of the mountainous route between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh is problematic from a physical standpoint, even if cooperation with owner Norfolk Southern was locked in.

South Central Corridor: The Texas-based candidate suddenly has backing from businesses with clout, reportedly including Southwest Airlines. But the Texas legislature has been notably hostile to funding passenger rail in any capacity, including this current year, and meets only every other year. Lacking leadership from Texas, any HSR effort involving the Lone State State, Arkansas, and Oklahoma appears unlikely in the short term.

Gulf Coast Corridor: “I don’t see it,” two separate sources told Railway Age. A Houston-New Orleans-Atlanta HSR effort would dovetail with the Southeast Corridor, but given the other, higher visibility HSR opportunities for both Florida and Texas, the likelihood of such a route being led by Louisiana, Mississippi, and/or Alabama appear dim at best. Amtrak’s Sunset Limited may finally return to this route this Octoberâ€"a step up, but nowhere near HSR.

Northern New England Corridor: An Albany-Boston-Montreal routing appears tortured on a map, faces international coordination issues similar to the Pacific Northwest Corridor, and also faces competition from the venerable NEC, which offers a less risky opportunity to generate rail ridership in New England.

http://www.railwayage.com/in-this-issue/high-speed-rail-handicapping-the-u.s.html

[Ocklawaha]

I just don't see it coming down like this. There probably won't be a giant egg of cash that gets busted open over some lucky part of the country. As this thing wears on, I'm hearing more and more about "Higher Speed Rail", "Amtrak Improvements for Higher Speeds", and the simple things such as the missing short routes from Richmond to Raleigh (Former Seaboard Air Line Ry "S" line) and the missing chunk of the same railroad between Savannah and Jacksonville (Kingsland).  It should be remembered that the railroads, being taxed on land for right of way, were looking for ways to consolidate their traffic onto single routes  back in the 1970's and early 1980's. It didn't take rocket science to figure out that by pulling the plug on some the the short cuts, known as cut offs would have three effects:
1. Freight cars don't care how they get to Miami, as long as they get there when promised and at the price quoted.
2. Lifting extra trackage or route miles, cut way down on taxation as well as O & M costs.
3. Pulling plugs on cut offs had the bonus effect of keeping Amtrak out of the way of freight trains.

Suddenly with the demands back on for regular intercity rail service improvements and a government that looks friendly at least for the next 3.5 years, using that money for projects such as the FEC route between JAX and MIA is looking more realistic by the day.

Lakelander, over in your neck of the woods, several cut offs were abandoned. Of course the star screw up on the part of CSX and FDOT was allowing the track to come off on the Wildwood - Auburndale segment of the old Seaboard "S" line. This WAS the Seaboards short route to Miami and it currently forces all Amtrak service that might be rerouted back on the popular "S" line through Waldo (Gainesville) and Ocala, to go to Lakeland. The train then would have to take a left go back east to Auburndale, then a right turn and head south toward Sebring, West Palm and Miami. Psst... does anyone think CSX really gives a damn about Amtrak?

The Vitis Cut off from Zephyrhills down through Thonotasassa and into Tampa, also abandoned. That short route would bypass Lakeland and plug the Southbound "S" line directly from Wildwood-Dade City-Tampa. Another link north of Plant City at the Union Station site, headed north and linked with the "S" as well, It went across the old ACL and took the southern most route into Tampa. Another couple of biggies were the early SCL (pre CSX) abandonment of the west coast shortline route of the old Seaboard, from Waldo - Gainesville - Dunnellon, above Dunnellon the track takes a loopy route up and over to Starke via Alachua. Gainesville is at the end of an Alachua - Gainesville branchline today, making it great for JTA Commuter Rail, but sucks for Amtrak long distance.

From Dunnellon there is a bit of track going south, then it's cut again to Inverness - N. Brooksville.
From Brooksville to Tampa the line is intact, and would make a great commuter or 4Th North South Florida route. It would also give the Tampa Bay Area, a second route out of town, something they haven't had in years (Jax has 6 through and one branch). With a half Billion a guy could get REAL creative with this stuff.

OCKLAWAHA

[CS Foltz]

Ock...........money is the root of all evil and the bricks upon which we build on! I just hope we get enough people interested in the Rail concept to have something thats usefull! Orlando/St Pete is just a mouse feeder and not a viable test of true commuter rail in any form!