SunRail link to airport, theme parks would multiply riders and cost billions

[thelakelander]

Expanding SunRail to Orlando's airport and the region's tourism corridor would boost ridership at least sixfold in the first year of operation but come at an eye-popping cost of about $4 billion, state officials said Thursday in providing their first public projections for the commuter train's next phase.

"There's a lot of sharpening of the pencil to determine the true cost of this project," said John Tyler, secretary of the Florida's Department of Transportation's Central Florida district, speaking to local mayors and city commissioners on SunRail's board. Those costs would have to come from the taxpayers, with a combination of local, state and federal funding, as well as significant private contributions.

But Tyler was quick to argue the merits of what he called "transformational transportation projects" to Central Florida, citing the $2.3 billion overhaul of Interstate 4, construction of the $1.6 billon Wekiva Parkway, completion of the Orlando airport's $3.2 billion Terminal C and Brightline's start of service last year between Miami and Orlando.

Tyler said his department's yearlong study, finding that linking SunRail to airport and tourism stops would increase ridership from the current 1 million annually to 6 million annually, is likely to be an underestimate.

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[marcuscnelson]

That price tag is definitely nothing to sneeze at. But like Secretary Tyler says, Florida has historically spent similar amounts on highways and airports with little protest in comparison, and finally completing this connection will be well worth the cost.

Perhaps the closest parallel for a project of this magnitude is the Gateway Program in New York and New Jersey, which costs multiple times what the Sunshine Corridor will. Building a relationship with Washington will be critical for a project like this, but it is possible. The new rail tunnel alone is projected to cost $17 billion, but is funded by $6.9 billion from the Federal Transit Administration and $3.9 billion from the Federal Railroad Administration, plus a loan from the FRA that New York and New Jersey will repay over time, plus several other grant programs to narrow the financial gap for the states. Compared to that tunnel, the Sunshine Corridor is much simpler, especially when there will be a private partner in Brightline and Universal.

For a $4 billion line, it is not out of the question that up to $2 billion could be secured from the FTA, plus another $1 billion from the FRA, plus funds through programs like Consolidated Rail Infrastructure & Safety Improvements and MEGA. That would still leave a state and local obligation in the hundreds of millions, but that is a very different conversation than looking for all $4 billion.

[thelakelander]

They haven't even done a PD&E. Whenever that is done, there will be more realistic numbers to play with.