Miami Building Collapse Impact on Fla. High Rise Market?

[jaxlongtimer]

Reading many articles about what may have caused the tragic collapse in Miami this week of the condo towers.  Lots of speculation includes impact of salt air and water "softening" concrete and corroding embedded rebar that strengthens it along with shifting foundations due to subsidence from eroding lime rock caused by higher water tables from sea rise.   Especially highlighted as at-risk are buildings built on fill and near salt water and air.

It appears that, like the initial response to 9/11, people may shy away from living or working in high rises near the sea or built on fill, usually found along the banks of waterways.

This makes me think of such areas in Jacksonville.  Much of both the north and south bank Downtown is built on filled in swamp land.  And, the river is both rising and becoming increasingly salty due to dredging, rising seas, a dropping aquifer reducing fresh water spring flows and increased fresh water withdrawals in Central Florida.  While we don't have nearly the number of high rises at the beaches, we do have a few.

The cost of ownership of these buildings is sure to rise with increased engineering inspections and the resulting recommendations to perform more proactive measures to mitigate or offset the impacts of the suspected causes of this collapse.  Insurance companies are also likely to be  more wary of these buildings than they already are due to the threat of hurricanes so premiums may skyrocket even further.  Updated building codes will likely increase the costs of new construction.

Between higher costs of ownership and greater adversity of "buyers/tenants" to occupy these buildings, you may see a fast slow down of high rise construction in this state.

Overall, the lesson may be to not build high rises so close to any body of water in Florida or like areas.  This should further justify the increased placement of "green spaces" along the banks of the river and elsewhere near water. 

[JaxAvondale]

Lending on a condo in this state has always been more stringent due the underwriting guidelines. Between building costs and increased reserves, the condo market in this state is going to be very different in a few years.

[vicupstate]

 

Especially highlighted as at-risk are buildings built on fill and near salt water and air.

It is a good thing only a few buildings in Florida fit this description.

This was a pretty scary incident. What seems odd to me is the 'quick failure' aspect. Wouldn't it seem that warning signs like cracks in the walls and floors and such would have been occurring with increasing regularity before the building simply collapsed wholesale?

I'm sure some on here with an engineering background could speak to the subject better than I can.

[bl8jaxnative]

I doubt that this tragic disaster will lead to people not buying high rise condos in Florida any more than the I35W bridge collapse in Minnesota  leading to people giving up using bridges.

[jaxlongtimer]

I doubt that this tragic disaster will lead to people not buying high rise condos in Florida any more than the I35W bridge collapse in Minnesota  leading to people giving up using bridges.

It will come down to whether the cause is easily replicated in other structures.  Bridges may be more unique than cookie cutter high rises.  Also, if it is determined that salt air and water and subsidence led to the failure of this building and those same risks affect other buildings, you can expect hesitancy from potential buyers.  A reduction in buyers will mean less sales and lower prices.

If there wasn't concern across all high rises, then why is Miami-Dade now ordering inspections of all such buildings over 40 years old?  You can be sure many people will be unsettled, especially if they find similar deficiencies in multiple buildings.  On the other hand, if all buildings get a "clean bill of health" then maybe the market will bounce back.  It will take several months to sort it all out but until it is, I would expect a market price drop.

[jaxjags]

I doubt that this tragic disaster will lead to people not buying high rise condos in Florida any more than the I35W bridge collapse in Minnesota  leading to people giving up using bridges.

The I35W bridge was built in the days when bridges were designed without redundancy. Thus if one element failed, a brace, the whole structure went down. Today all bridges, such as dames Point, are designed such that multiple elements must fail before a colapse.

I believe a building is different. It is designed to never fail, so if one element fails, say a column in parking garage, the whole building could collapse. This appears to be more of a maintenance failure or more likely that combined with other elements, such as roof repair.

[MusicMan]

"Lending on a condo in this state has always been more stringent due the underwriting guidelines. Between building costs and increased reserves, the condo market in this state is going to be very different in a few years."

Uh.... don't forget every condo built between 2005 and 2015 was sued by the HOA for poor construction quality, most frequently for an inability to keep water out of the building.  The Peninsula, 1661 Riverside, Berkman Plaza, even Churchwell Lofts (to name a few) all had serious lawsuits against their developer which ran into the millions of dollars...... that affected the ability to sell the units for obvious reasons.

Only San Marco Place (IIRC) was not sued....

[vicupstate]

"Lending on a condo in this state has always been more stringent due the underwriting guidelines. Between building costs and increased reserves, the condo market in this state is going to be very different in a few years."

Uh.... don't forget every condo built between 2005 and 2015 was sued by the HOA for poor construction quality, most frequently for an inability to keep water out of the building.  The Peninsula, 1661 Riverside, Berkman Plaza, even Churchwell Lofts (to name a few) all had serious lawsuits against their developer which ran into the millions of dollars...... that affected the ability to sell the units for obvious reasons.

Only San Marco Place (IIRC) was not sued....

Wow. I was not aware. Have these buildings been remediated? 

[bl8jaxnative]

If there wasn't concern across all high rises, then why is Miami-Dade now ordering inspections of all such buildings over 40 years old?

Someone putting on a seat belt is not proof that they're going to die in a car accident.  To be blunt,  I don't think you're willing to understand why these inspections would be ordered.    It's not just a safety thing, no politician wants to be seen as doing nothing.  Even if the value of this is moot, they at least give the optics of doing something, of caring.

Now about with this "sea water" and such, if the that was a problem, where is it in Boston, Newark, NYC, Norfolk, Santa Monica, San Diego, San Fran, Mobile, Seattle, et al?   They after all, are right by oceans which have sea water.   Does the higher salt content make a diff?  Sure, but that's not unique to this situation.


One question I have is if there's a way to test the quality of the concrete.  That's going to be important in this type of construction  Florida does not have good, local ingredients for it.   Throw in this thing being built during the cocaine booms years, and one has to wonder if they cut some corners on that. 

It also looks like they may have dug down no only to put in foundation but also to keep all the parking low.   Doesn't strike me as a great move when your building on swamp land at sea level.  I'd be curious how low they went and what was done to keep the water out.   There's been some talk of some pumping of water going on down there which isn't a bad sign but isn't good.  You want to prevent water from getting in.  If it's getting in to where you can see it, it's getting in to where you can not.

[MusicMan]

Remediation has been ongoing for years, pretty sure there's scaffolding up at 1661 Riverside right now.

[Charles Hunter]

If there wasn't concern across all high rises, then why is Miami-Dade now ordering inspections of all such buildings over 40 years old?

Someone putting on a seat belt is not proof that they're going to die in a car accident.  To be blunt,  I don't think you're willing to understand why these inspections would be ordered.    It's not just a safety thing, no politician wants to be seen as doing nothing.  Even if the value of this is moot, they at least give the optics of doing something, of caring.

Now about with this "sea water" and such, if the that was a problem, where is it in Boston, Newark, NYC, Norfolk, Santa Monica, San Diego, San Fran, Mobile, Seattle, et al?   They after all, are right by oceans which have sea water.   Does the higher salt content make a diff?  Sure, but that's not unique to this situation.


One question I have is if there's a way to test the quality of the concrete.  That's going to be important in this type of construction  Florida does not have good, local ingredients for it.   Throw in this thing being built during the cocaine booms years, and one has to wonder if they cut some corners on that. 

It also looks like they may have dug down no only to put in foundation but also to keep all the parking low.   Doesn't strike me as a great move when your building on swamp land at sea level.  I'd be curious how low they went and what was done to keep the water out.   There's been some talk of some pumping of water going on down there which isn't a bad sign but isn't good.  You want to prevent water from getting in.  If it's getting in to where you can see it, it's getting in to where you can not.

I don't think any of the other ocean-front cities you listed are built on limestone. Limestone is porous and allows seawater to infiltrate inland from the shore and undermine buildings.

Yes, they can take concrete samples from the rubble. Concrete cores can also be taken from standing buildings.

The defense for the [lack of] depth of the foundation will be that it (probably) met the building codes in effect when built. Doesn't mean it was a good idea, but it will give the contractor/owner lawyers something to hold onto.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Yes, this, that Miami sits on porous limestone.  Every time there is a king tide, salt water bubbles up to or toward the surface impacting building materials at or below ground level. 

bl8jaxnative claims inspections now are all about political posturing but every engineer quoted so far says not only are these inspections appropriate but they should be done much sooner and more frequently.  Further, follow ups need to be done across the entire county/region as they are all subject to the same exposures.  Older buildings, in particular, were built at lower elevations and/or below ground and that, from what I have read, is no longer allowed in newer buildings.  Today, all buildings must be above the flooding levels of a king tide.

As to existing buildings experiencing flooding, its been reported that most depend on pumps to keep water out.  However, few buildings keep up with the maintenance of such pumps which require frequent replacement as they work 24/7 and are pumping salt water.

The most unique thing I have read about the tower that collapsed is that its pool deck was not sloped so water just sat on it and ultimately saturated the parking garage underneath.  Per the condo association, this design flaw and other fixes needed to address the rusting rebar and concrete spalling were postponed due to COVID and the time needed to get bids and convince the residents they needed to spend up to $16+ million for corrective actions, a bitter financial pill for many of them to swallow.  Engineers said this delay should not have been allowed based on the 2018 engineering inspection provided to the City of Surfside and the condo association.  It appears that, while having urgency, no one imagined this outcome so the ramrod was not fully made to get it done by any of the parties to the inspections.

[jaxlongtimer]

I doubt that this tragic disaster will lead to people not buying high rise condos in Florida any more than the I35W bridge collapse in Minnesota  leading to people giving up using bridges.

Hitting closer to home... Jacksonville Beach mandating inspections here.  Just the risk of paying big bucks to maintain these buildings may be enough to give pause to buyers.

...During a city council meeting Monday night, Jacksonville Beach officials said they're now checking on aging buildings to make sure they've been inspected on schedule...

...."I did get a chance to talk to the fire marshal, and the fire marshal made it a point of going out and talking to the buildings that met the criteria of requirement for a structural analysis within the 40-year window," Staffopoulos said during the Monday meeting. "So, he's already taken it upon himself to go knock on the doors of each of those buildings and say, 'Hey, if you're over 40, you have to have the report.'"...

....In Duval County, five residential buildings are over 100-feet tall and more than 30-years old: Pelican Point, Pablo Towers, The Waterford, Ocean 14 and Seascape....

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2021/06/29/jacksonville-beach-checking-on-aging-building-after-surfside-condo-collapse/

[bl8jaxnative]

Do we at least now all understand why Berkman II must be torn down?

[Peter Griffin]

Do we at least now all understand why Berkman II must be torn down?

Romantic types will still say we could've saved it