Nat Ford: Why Jax should invest in the future of transportation, Downtown

[marcuscnelson]

I'd argue more highly than that. They aimed for an Apollo 11, and got Apollo 10. They seem remarkably confident, wrongly so or not, that they'll find a way to scrounge up the money for the neighborhood extensions. Sure that's not a given, but I think from their perspective just getting to replace the Skyway is enough.

Now, as far as all the sunshine-and-rainbows stuff about "Silicon Valley of the east:" no. That's not happening, and this project won't do that. The fact that council didn't notice that Cupertino and Mountain View aren't exactly glitzy super 5G hubs anyway should have been evidence enough.

[jaxoNOLE]

They already have the Bay Street extension, so they'll be able to claim they extended the system. Hopefully there will be more scrutiny and public input on any further extensions as they'll have to come back and justify additional funding for those pieces. JTA's involvement with the Emerald Trail now may also be an opportunity to integrate any extensions with the pedestrian mobility provided by the trail. The irony is that the more successful they are at enticing ridership with good route design, the more obvious the capacity limitations will become.

[itsfantastic1]

Kudos to the JTA team. They shot for the moon and while they did not get it, they did secure $240 million in local dedicated funding for a big pet project. That's a huge coup for any type of public transit project.

My fear with this "win" is that it's inevitable failure will hamper any future discussions of transit projects that aren't roadways, just as the Skyway does today.

• "Hey, you want $300 mil to run a commuter train to St. Augustine, well the U2C was a failure so why should we believe you on the merits of this project?"
• "Oh you want $100 mil to prepare the Prime Osborn for a possible Brightline connection, we'd rather wait until its too late just to be sure Brightline is coming since we've already spent too much on U2C"
• "Streetcars in Downtown? This sounds like U2C..2."

[thelakelander]

I'd argue more highly than that. They aimed for an Apollo 11, and got Apollo 10. They seem remarkably confident, wrongly so or not, that they'll find a way to scrounge up the money for the neighborhood extensions. Sure that's not a given, but I think from their perspective just getting to replace the Skyway is enough.

Now, as far as all the sunshine-and-rainbows stuff about "Silicon Valley of the east:" no. That's not happening, and this project won't do that. The fact that council didn't notice that Cupertino and Mountain View aren't exactly glitzy super 5G hubs anyway should have been evidence enough.

25% in local funding would have been good. They actually have closer to 70% in local funding. They all should do back flips and have drinks tonight. Ford and the boys earned their salaries on this one. The feat achieved with the LOGT is more remarkable than the U2C from a professional perspective.

[thelakelander]

Kudos to the JTA team. They shot for the moon and while they did not get it, they did secure $240 million in local dedicated funding for a big pet project. That's a huge coup for any type of public transit project.

My fear with this "win" is that it's inevitable failure will hamper any future discussions of transit projects that aren't roadways, just as the Skyway does today.

• "Hey, you want $300 mil to run a commuter train to St. Augustine, well the U2C was a failure so why should we believe you on the merits of this project?"
• "Oh you want $100 mil to prepare the Prime Osborn for a possible Brightline connection, we'd rather wait until its too late just to be sure Brightline is coming since we've already spent too much on U2C"
• "Streetcars in Downtown? This sounds like U2C..2."

I don't see commuter rail or a streetcar happening here within the next 20 years. Both of those are pipe dreams. Our best bets from a rail perspective will be whatever can come with Amtrak or Brightline down the road.

[jaxlongtimer]

Kudos to the JTA team. They shot for the moon and while they did not get it, they did secure $240 million in local dedicated funding for a big pet project. That's a huge coup for any type of public transit project.

My fear with this "win" is that it's inevitable failure will hamper any future discussions of transit projects that aren't roadways, just as the Skyway does today.

• "Hey, you want $300 mil to run a commuter train to St. Augustine, well the U2C was a failure so why should we believe you on the merits of this project?"
• "Oh you want $100 mil to prepare the Prime Osborn for a possible Brightline connection, we'd rather wait until its too late just to be sure Brightline is coming since we've already spent too much on U2C"
• "Streetcars in Downtown? This sounds like U2C..2."

I don't see commuter rail or a streetcar happening here within the next 20 years. Both of those are pipe dreams. Our best bets from a rail perspective will be whatever can come with Amtrak or Brightline down the road.

I agree with Itsfantastic1's comments.  JTA won the battle but will likely lose the war when the U2C makes the original Skyway failure look like chicken feed.  Mass transit or any other JTA transit-related proposal, whether in 5 years or 50 years, is going to have a black eye over this.  Look, the Skyway has already done that for 30 years and counting.

I can see them having to "rebrand"/"rebuild" JTA at some point to remove the stigma associated with it over this project.  Pure insanity to approve the U2C.  Almost 100% chance it fails.

[jcjohnpaint]

[marcuscnelson]

The irony is that the more successful they are at enticing ridership with good route design, the more obvious the capacity limitations will become.

My understanding of their plan is that they believe they'll be able to deploy a potentially infinite number of pods, individually or in platoons, to address capacity. Does it make sense? Not really. Does it matter? Apparently not, if they can spin enough tales about the future.

My fear with this "win" is that it's inevitable failure will hamper any future discussions of transit projects that aren't roadways, just as the Skyway does today.

• "Hey, you want $300 mil to run a commuter train to St. Augustine, well the U2C was a failure so why should we believe you on the merits of this project?"
• "Oh you want $100 mil to prepare the Prime Osborn for a possible Brightline connection, we'd rather wait until its too late just to be sure Brightline is coming since we've already spent too much on U2C"
• "Streetcars in Downtown? This sounds like U2C..2."

It's amazing that 1) out of nearly a billion dollars, half of which was theirs to decide on what to do with, they only dedicated about $3.4 million to rail-based transit, for essentially studies and 2) they've criticized rail-based transit with such zeal.

I don't see commuter rail or a streetcar happening here within the next 20 years. Both of those are pipe dreams. Our best bets from a rail perspective will be whatever can come with Amtrak or Brightline down the road.

At this point, streetcars are dead. Not because of any genuine obsolescence, but because this is going to suck all the air out of the room in terms of implementing non-bus transit. Seeing as JTA have at this point not only refused, but denigrated streets, I'd wave the white flag on that. Commuter rail, I'm slightly more optimistic on only because of the possibility that it could find a way with the upcoming infrastructure bill.

I agree with Itsfantastic1's comments.  JTA won the battle but will likely lose the war when the U2C makes the original Skyway failure look like chicken feed.  Mass transit or any other JTA transit-related proposal, whether in 5 years or 50 years, is going to have a black eye over this.  Look, the Skyway has already done that for 30 years and counting.

I can see them having to "rebrand"/"rebuild" JTA at some point to remove the stigma associated with it over this project.  Pure insanity to approve the U2C.  Almost 100% chance it fails.

At this point, as far as I can see, all we can really do is sit back and watch the car accident happen in slow motion. Hell, maybe we'll somehow be wrong, I don't know. Otherwise, we better have one hell of an "I told you so" ready for if it does fall apart.

If that's that, I guess we should turn to whatever's next. If I remember right, within a month or so we'll start hearing about the procurement for Bay Street.

[jcjohnpaint]

It's hope the cord is cut short after it starts. One of many fiscally irresponsible moves made in the last few years

[thelakelander]

It's amazing that 1) out of nearly a billion dollars, half of which was theirs to decide on what to do with, they only dedicated about $3.4 million to rail-based transit, for essentially studies and 2) they've criticized rail-based transit with such zeal.

During this process, I found this to be one of the more shocking things. In defense of the U2C, they literally criticized every other form of public transit as being outdated, archaic and not cutting edge.

At this point, streetcars are dead. Not because of any genuine obsolescence, but because this is going to suck all the air out of the room in terms of implementing non-bus transit. Seeing as JTA have at this point not only refused, but denigrated streets, I'd wave the white flag on that. Commuter rail, I'm slightly more optimistic on only because of the possibility that it could find a way with the upcoming infrastructure bill.

Streetcars as an option died before Nat Ford arrived in town. I also haven't been optimistic about commuter rail since 2008 or so. Nothing has been done to suggest that a JTA commuter rail led project will happen over the next few decades. I doubt that it is even feasible, considering the poor land use policy and nothing in the works to serious encourage density around future station sites. I also expect that infrastructure bill to end up being a lot less than what has been touted and much of it will probably go to more shovel ready projects, not the stuff that we may or may not get to a study on sometime in the next decade or so. If we're lucky, maybe Amtrak gets some money to upgrade an existing service or start a new one, similar to the Pacific Surfliner between LA and San Diego. If that happens, there's really no need to wait for JTA to try and figure out commuter rail.

I can see them having to "rebrand"/"rebuild" JTA at some point to remove the stigma associated with it over this project.  Pure insanity to approve the U2C.  Almost 100% chance it fails.

I hold out hope that they at least get Bay Street off the ground and evaluate if it works or not before fooling around with the Skyway infrastructure itself.

At this point, as far as I can see, all we can really do is sit back and watch the car accident happen in slow motion. Hell, maybe we'll somehow be wrong, I don't know. Otherwise, we better have one hell of an "I told you so" ready for if it does fall apart.

If that's that, I guess we should turn to whatever's next. If I remember right, within a month or so we'll start hearing about the procurement for Bay Street.

I get the impression that Bay Street will take a lot longer than they are saying today. You can procure all you want, but you still can't do a lot of what they've talked about doing. Some of these things are simply out of local control.

[jaxlongtimer]

Below you have the Council's thinking on U2C in a nutshell... basically, a wing and a prayer.  No other factual basis for spending $247 million on it.  Hard to convert votes when they are made on this basis.  It also explains how the City keeps making boneheaded moves like this.

...Council members said they have confidence — the word "faith" was used by some — in Jacksonville Transportation Authority CEO Nat Ford's abilities.

"Sometimes, we have to get out of our way in Jacksonville," council member Brenda Priestly Jackson said to Ford. "We've very fortunate to have you and have an opportunity to be innovative and leading."

Council member Ron Salem said Ford, who came to Jacksonville in 2012, has been a non-stop advocate for the Skyway conversion.

"If this goes well, Mr. Ford, you're the hero," Salem said. "If it doesn't, you're not."....

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2021/05/26/247-million-skyway-conversion-project-survived-challenge/7446909002/

[jaxoNOLE]

I will be watching with morbid fascination to see what the actual cost estimates end up being for the conversion once it goes out for bid.

[thelakelander]

Yeah some of the reasons for support being made were pretty amateur hour. I really wish that more had put serious effort in learning more about the challenges. To do that, you have to put your own homework in as opposed to believing in an individual's sales pitch.

[marcuscnelson]

I noticed today that the U2C website is down for some reason. Not sure what that's about.

[jaxlongtimer]

I noticed today that the U2C website is down for some reason. Not sure what that's about.

Maybe DIA is advising JTA on how to rebrand the thing  .  We should hold our own logo contest on the Jaxson to help them out given DIA's sorry efforts.

In honor of Shad Khan's famous quote about Jax when he first arrived here, we could call it "No Mo Jo to the No Co."