Commuter Rail's Return?

[thelakelander]

^Anything with stops at Emerson, University, JTB, Baymeadows, etc. is better off being LRT. We're not getting 30 minutes headways on the FEC or anything else than that, with the amount of freight movement on that line. Jax and St. Augustine couldn't support it anyway. Still makes sense for the state to simply partner up with Amtrak or Brightline for a corridor service linking Florida's major metropolitan areas.

[jcjohnpaint]

Marcus,
Thanks for sharing this!

[marcuscnelson]

^Anything with stops at Emerson, University, JTB, Baymeadows, etc. is better off being LRT. We're not getting 30 minutes headways on the FEC or anything else than that, with the amount of freight movement on that line. Jax and St. Augustine couldn't support it anyway. Still makes sense for the state to simply partner up with Amtrak or Brightline for a corridor service linking Florida's major metropolitan areas.

On this note, it'd be a great first step for Mayor Deegan on transportation to push for a meeting with the passenger railroads, start getting a sense of what a North Florida intercity program might look like. In both cases the tracks already exist so it's really a question of the improvements and stations needed. And North Florida at least should be a lot less complicated than Tampa. Perhaps that might entail applying for one of the federal planning grants.

[thelakelander]

Intercity would have to connect with another major metropolitan area in the state. So we'd be talking about something like a Jax to Miami on the FEC or a Jax to Orlando on the CSX A line. Then its just a matter of getting stations along each of those corridors (i.e. like Fleming Island, Green Cove, Downtown, St. Augustine, etc.) and also using what we already have (i.e Palatka, our Amshack, etc.).

[marcuscnelson]

Yes, of course. Frankly I still wonder why the curve in Cocoa for Miami-Orlando service doesn't appear designed to accommodate a northern extension, unless I just can't see how the connection works.

There's really so much room for city leadership here (and of course on so many other issues), I really hope the Deegan admin can see that.

[HeartofFlorida]

Yes, of course. Frankly I still wonder why the curve in Cocoa for Miami-Orlando service doesn't appear designed to accommodate a northern extension, unless I just can't see how the connection works.

There's really so much room for city leadership here (and of course on so many other issues), I really hope the Deegan admin can see that.

Honestly, I don't think a Jacksonville extension was ever intended based on the current design.  I'm not an engineer so I won't pretend to be one.  However, If I was going to head north using the existing ROW out of Orlando, I would look at two options:

   
• Flyover at 407 Challenger-Memorial Pkwy heading NE until the I-95 area, then head east to just to connect with FEC south of Space Coast Regional Airport
• Roughly 5-8 miles before the "Cocoa Curve", head NE crossing Grissom Pkwy and cutting between Warehouse (or industrial space  on the west) and Space X assembly site on the east.

[jaxlongtimer]

JTA's latest on commuter rail. At least 10 years out.  Why so long after so many studies and years talking about it so far?

Updates on First Coast Commuter Rail project coming Aug. 8 & 9
Project will make travel from Jacksonville to St. Augustine easier

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The plan to make it easier to get from downtown Jacksonville to St. Augustine is in the works.

Last year, JTA unveiled a proposal to build a commuter rail service, known as the First Coast commuter rail.

Public presentations will be held next month to let people weigh in on this proposed project. This will give people the chance to take a look at the project for themselves and see what it has to offer.

There will be a presentation on the proposed Duval County stations from, 5-7 p.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 8 in the Jacksonville Transportation Authority board room at 100 LaVilla Center Dr.

The presentation on the proposed St. Johns County stations will be from 4:30-6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 9 at 75 King St., St. Augustine, Alcazar Room, City Hall.

JTA said the goal is to cut travel time down and account for the fact that Northeast Florida's population continues to boom.

People would drive into one of the four rail stations, hop on the commuter rail, and get to their destination.

Census data showed roughly 54,000 workers travel back and forth between Duval and St. Johns counties every day. JTA said having the commuter rail could ease a lot of the congestion on I-95 and U.S. 1.

There would be 4 stops:

The Jacksonville Regional Transportation Center in Downtown Jacksonville
Avenues Walk
Racetrack Road in St. Johns County
King Street in Downtown St. Augustine

If this goes through, JTA expects the travel time from King Street to the JRTC would be 48 minutes. That's the length of the full ride.

The tentative hours of operation would be from 5 a.m. to 9:43 p.m.

This entire project would take about 10 years to complete. To learn more, click here.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/07/28/updates-on-first-coast-commuter-rail-project-coming-aug-8-9/

[marcuscnelson]

Simple answer is that even after all this time they're not actually that far along. There's a lot more work that needs to be done to get a regional rail system to the point of federal funding, and even then you run a lot of risk in doing so.

JTA has essentially "slow-rolled" a lot of these studies that require tangible state and federal support, where they need tens of millions of dollars to actually conduct the relevant detailed planning studies needed to seek federal funding, not the single digit millions they've considered or spent before. I suppose at least some of this is not their fault, that's a lot of money to risk on studies, but at the same time they've had a number of opportunities to make regional rail a real priority and have instead chosen other projects to elevate, first BRT and now the U2C.

In light of the recent failure of Raleigh-Durham's effort and some discussions I'm having with folks in Baltimore about restoring the Red Line light rail Larry Hogan killed, there's a palpable concern about the need to bring competitive projects if you're starting from scratch (or close to it) and not in one of the biggest metro areas or demonstrating a serious commitment to building ridership. Like almost anything else in Jacksonville, there's a real need for city leadership in developing mobility options throughout the region and the city has largely been silent or close to it on that.

That would also mean being prepared with local funding that could then be matched by FDOT and the Federal Transit Administration. We really just haven't had those conversations yet, and we absolutely have to if we want to make any of these ideas happen, especially before the infrastructure bill expires.

[thelakelander]

What are the overall estimated capital costs and daily ridership numbers? How do those compare to running Amtrak (or Brightline) down the FEC as a Pacific Surfliner style service? I have a strong feeling the JTA project would cost more, generate lower ridership and be more difficult to launch. JTA wouldn't be in control of the purse strings, so I can understand why it wouldn't be in favor of other options that can deliver similar services.

[marcuscnelson]

^ They haven't produced an actual breakdown of either since 2009. They've given a topline number, $400 million in 2020 and $600 million last year (where that cost increase came from, who knows). Meanwhile the work they've shown focuses instead on how many people do or could soon live and work around the line, not how many of those people would be likely to actually ride the train. Maybe someone could ask at this event, but I wouldn't be surprised if the answer was like on the website, that another study is required to determine that and this is just covering TOD.

The issue is that you need at least $100 million in this day and age (probably more) to actually really plan out a modern rail project. Doing all the required analysis, selecting and buying sites, track engineering, calculating costs, all of that. Raleigh-Durham spent $157 million designing a light rail project that Duke University decided to push to kill before their more recent commuter rail attempt. Brightline's spending $32 million just for preliminary engineering for the Orlando-Tampa expansion, which is already based on a plan that had previous design work. It takes a lot of work just to reach the point of asking for money to build something.

As far as intercity, the cost now in theory entails either Brightline continuing to expand double track from Cocoa to Jacksonville, which also might mean building a new connector to the now-existing Orlando line, or Amtrak making improvements to the A-Line between DeLand to allow for new corridor trains. Of course, one of those options has a clearer path in this state than the other. My random guess is that Brightline would cost more because the FEC seems to demand more double tracking and the expansion would require adding Positive Train Control, which Amtrak's line already has. But it would mean hourly (or close to it) service instead of a handful of times per day like Amtrak would. Either is going to require some amount of public support, and that will also mean political support.

Probably the fastest way to encourage one of these railroads would be to do what they asked for governments to do a few months ago: figure out how to get the environmental review and permitting work done and then essentially just hand them the project to build.

[iMarvin]

I mean, it's not like they don't have the money. How much is JTA spending on the U2C project that will never happen?

It's all about priorities.

[Jax_Developer]

$500M+ when it's all said & done. They say $400M now... No shot this thing isn't $100M over budget if they actually do it.

[thelakelander]

Jax and JTA have always had access to money to pull off a starter rail system of any type. It simply hasn't been a priority and it isn't now. This AV thing is costing us a lot more than most types of proven rail systems.

[marcuscnelson]

The first session for Duval County's stations was tonight at the JRTC from 5 to 7. Any attendees?

Tomorrow's St. Johns County session is at St. Augustine City Hall from 4:30 to 6:30.

[simms3]

The first session for Duval County's stations was tonight at the JRTC from 5 to 7. Any attendees?

Tomorrow's St. Johns County session is at St. Augustine City Hall from 4:30 to 6:30.

Yes, I attended.

Where to start...if you're one of these little transit nerds like so many of us are on here, then you're dying inside at some of the questions from the general public.  Very easy to pull the wool over people's eyes.

There was a small crowd of *young* people that gathered afterwards with one of the general team.  VERY knowledgeable and just schooling the crap out of JTA.  I was blown away - I kind of figured maybe one or two were members on here.  I handed out my business cards and asked them to reach out to grab beers, coffee or lunch.  Made me optimistic.

But as all things in Jax, the best, smartest people with the most common sense ideas and having the awareness of what's successful beyond our borders are the absolute furthest from the levers of power and decision making.



Aside from the fact that I'd personally rather see JTA pursue an intown system of at-grade but largely separated ROW for light rail or street cars (I basically would love to see Charlotte's LYNX just replicated here) *before* pursuing systems that will not generate ridership numbers and may cost JTA political capital for building something actually useful later, my easiest problems to pick were on the real estate side since that is what I do for a living.


Take two of the Duval transit stops:  Baymeadows/Old Kings and Avenues Walk area.

Baymeadows
I know a family member of the company that owns the shopping center that they want to replace with high-density mixed use around the transit stop.  I'm pretty sure they have not had discussions with this group, which is thankfully local.

Avenues Walk
This guy went on and on about this stop, showing examples in other cities (notably Halcyon in Atlanta).  I call Avenues Walk a little crater because you have to climb a mountain and then descend into a little crater surrounded by highways, rail and wetlands.  The speaker envisioned "a couple hundred thousand square feet of office" and then in the same sentence called it a future employment center.

But he described a Halcyon like development without telling us how he would do the following:

1. Get rid of the Walmart (or at least work with Walmart to partner with a bigger time developer to incorporate into a higher density development)
2. Talk to the recent buyer of the other retail center and vacant land (which has some of the vacant land up for sale right now)
3. Get rid of the brand new suburban gated garden apartments and suburban townhomes just built to incorporate all of that land into a high density, walkable TOD style development

On that note, I actually heard about this through NEFBA.  I am a member and part of a subcommittee there that is actually looking at the TOD bill.  I will say, the members from the development community within NEFBA are different from forum contributors on this website, or members of ULI.  There is a woeful ignorance towards transit, urban infill for the most part, or TOD type stuff.  But we are looking at the TOD bill in this subcommittee, and the head of the subcommittee works for a local real estate company that has real estate right basically there at Avenues Walk and I know for a fact that JTA has not had any discussions with his company about their big plans for the area there.  I find that hilarious.


Someone else asked if JTA were going to work with whatever other agencies to ensure sidewalks are put in around Southside Blvd there because otherwise how do you use the station and walk around over there.


No discussion about St Johns County or St Augustine, just focused on Duval (3 stops including Prime Osborn).


I asked if they had considered light rail at all, and the speaker basically said "I don't know, maybe there are other potentially better systems out there but we only focused on the commuter rail."  For solid deeper questions, as there were a few, the speaker basically said "I don't know."


And with all of the BS "studies" and presentations we are overloaded with in this town, they asked us to put different color stickers for "good, ok, bad" opinions on the presentation boards in the back.