Is a gas tax increase a solution to Jax's funding woes?

[marcuscnelson]

Agreed. Incredibly disappointed in yet another adventure of chasing a game-changer project (I'm still laughing about "Silicon Valley of the East"), but in the end this is a net good investment, and getting things like the Mayport ferry and the Emerald Trail funded is absolutely a big win. At least we're getting studies about passenger rail, I guess.

This day and age it's decidedly uncharacteristic of Republicans to raise taxes for a good reason, and for all his faults, Curry managed to pull it off. I'm willing to hand it to him.

[BridgeTroll]

This is an example of a tax increase that I can support. A defined and targeted goal for the monies rather than going into a general fund.  Not thrilled with U2C but love the septic tank removal and Emerald trail... 

[Tacachale]

IMO this was a fair compromise. The money for the Emerald Trail turned a 60% win into a 75% win and I'll take that. There will be time to push back on the Skyway again later but in the meantime many good projects can go through.

[thelakelander]

While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

[bl8jaxnative]

The city council just voted to piss away a quart of a billion dollars on the empty Skyway.  Disgusting.

[JBTripper]

Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

[marcuscnelson]

I spent about an hour yesterday riding the three Skyway lines while live-streaming with some friends who are into transit and urban planning, some of whom work in the field. Their general consensus was that Jacksonville as a city clearly has great bones and a lot of potential, but for whatever reason we're not taking advantage of it, and that it's insane we're planning to use such heavy-duty infrastructure for something like self driving pod cars.

While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

I'm thinking of writing something to that effect. To say that while I'm not happy about the choice of technology, if it's going to fail it should be because of the technology, not because we actively kneecapped it with poor land use and planning, or subsidized against its use. Even if the TOD plan is somewhat outlandish, we should absolutely make sure that any zoning around the stations is configured to enable maximum utilization.

Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

Probably not. Odds are JTA's not going to design it with that in mind, and it's doubtful GroundworkJax designed it with that consideration either. If anything, JTA might try to hamfist wide enough paths for U2C vehicles.

[thelakelander]

Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

No. Much of the trail ROW is actually streets like Hogan Street that will be retrofitted to include a trail component.

[thelakelander]

While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

I'm thinking of writing something to that effect. To say that while I'm not happy about the choice of technology, if it's going to fail it should be because of the technology, not because we actively kneecapped it with poor land use and planning, or subsidized against its use. Even if the TOD plan is somewhat outlandish, we should absolutely make sure that any zoning around the stations is configured to enable maximum utilization.

Even if the AV plan fails, you'll have the ability for the infrastructure and dedicated transit lanes to be utilized by a different type of rolling stock/vehicle.

[Ken_FSU]

The city council just voted to piss away a quart of a billion dollars on the empty Skyway.  Disgusting.

While at the same time voting to put nearly $750 million toward much needed infrastructure and quality of life improvements throughout Jacksonville, freeing up the CIP to fulfill decades-long promises to underserved neighborhoods. On that of that, they voted unanimously to put an additional $100 million immediately toward septic tank phaseout.

The U2C isn't ideal, but JTA believe in it, and they made some pretty big concessions on this gas tax.

Specifically, when they could have tried to play hardball on their 50/50 split with the city, they sacrificed $130 million from their half of the pie and agreed to take on the Emerald Trail project themselves.

When the city misses construction timelines on projects like Coastline by three years and literally forgets that "Riverfront Plaza" needs to be watered, I think JTA's stewardship of the Trail and can only be an upgrade.

Plus, we're years away from any significant gas tax money going toward the Skyway, and months away from the tax starting to work for other projects like the Emerald Trail (which both parties want to have fully completed within 5-8 years).

Any $1 billion portfolio of projects is bound to have some pork.

I think it's a really good compromise that continues to push Jacksonville forward in many regards, all things considered.

[jaxoNOLE]

While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

The recently-procured autonomous ADA bus is, I hope, more the direction this goes. Obviously the tech needs to catch up, but that same van that accommodates 12 paratransit passengers can hold up to 21 people. Get those running in dedicated ROW with drivers, at regular vehicle speeds, and then when the tech is ready you can turn it over to autonomous driving. No, it's not light rail, but it's achievable and more flexible than full size buses. Not worth $240M, but we may as well get something that works.

[jaxlongtimer]

There is one other possibility that could kill U2C:  That the technology it is dependent upon doesn't arrive in a timely manner.  So, if it takes, say, 10 to 20 years to make possible what they are looking for (a real possibility), they may have no choice but to look at other more achievable options given the City's transit needs can't wait any longer.

I hope they don't plan to spend the 1/4 billion ripping up what is there before they know for sure they can build the U2C successfully (what ever low standard they have for defining that).  Additionally, I am still wondering where the study is that says the thing will be used at any level to justify it being built out in the first place.

[marcuscnelson]

There is one other possibility that could kill U2C:  That the technology it is dependent upon doesn't arrive in a timely manner.  So, if it takes, say, 10 to 20 years to make possible what they are looking for (a real possibility), they may have no choice but to look at other more achievable options given the City's transit needs can't wait any longer.

One obvious challenge with that is that 1) JTA leadership has already fallen into sunk cost fallacy:

"Now is not the time to reverse course," JTA board Chairwoman Ari Jolly said. "We are too far in the implementation of the U2C program."

She said not building the system would be turning "our backs on the progress and innovation of the city for generations to come."

And 2) by the time they realize that it's just not ready (and further away than "right around the corner") there's no telling how much money they'll have spent or infrastructure that will have been converted for technology that doesn't work. There might not be resources available to redirect to developing an alternative on any useful timeline.

I hope they don't plan to spend the 1/4 billion ripping up what is there before they know for sure they can build the U2C successfully (what ever low standard they have for defining that).  Additionally, I am still wondering where the study is that says the thing will be used at any level to justify it being built out in the first place.

Like I said in another thread, Ford's plan at least was to start ASAP on the procurement process once they knew they'd have the money, and be out to bid in two years, which would be before Bay Street opens. It's unclear at this point whether the beam would start coming off before Bay Street is operating, although the full timeline is apparently 6-7 years from now for the converted elevated portion to open. Of course, as Lake has said, there's no way of knowing if any of that timeline will hold.

One possibility that I haven't heard in a while is that they actually go ahead with the Autonomous Avenue concept, which would convert the section between the JRTC and Jefferson Station to prove the concept before converting the remaining guideway. But that might have been more about funding, which is no longer a problem for them, than about actually proving the technology.

Here's the Ridership Forecast from the Transit Concept and Alternatives Review for the conversion. Page 32 shows projections including the expansion to Brooklyn.

As an aside, has anyone who's been to the JRTC noticed that they made a design error during the value engineering and ended up disabling one of the Skyway tracks with a bridge so that you can actually walk from the mezzanine to the platform?

[thelakelander]

I noticed that at the JRTC. I saw it on the plans and assumed they'd find a way to keep that track operational. Obviously, I was wrong.

[marcuscnelson]

Looking back at the original plans, you can see the terrace level and how it's separated from the platform, with some escalators right next to the skybridge:



But then the level above includes a path over the skyway tracks, with additional escalators and an elevator back down to platform level.



From the look of things, one of these floors, the elevator, and the escalators were scrapped in value engineering. And then they just tossed in a bridge directly over the track because they didn't want to require going down to street level.

Definitely seems like a waste of the infrastructure to make that entire section of track useless, and now there's still a temporary plastic barrier so that people don't fall onto the guideway. And either they'll have to buy AVs with doors on both sides or they're going to have to turn around at some point. Really strange decision overall.