Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[Jax_Developer]

478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.

That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.

Yeah I can see that's what they want to claim. I've been doing statistics for a bit, and they didn't include, well anything, to prove that confidence range. They threw some demographic data to look like this isn't completely BS, but that doesn't prove much.

Ironically, about a third of their respondents were 70+. Fairly white heavy for duval too. Already, there's bias in the dataset. No serious mathematician would take this seriously. Especially with 8 options & 20% saying IDK. I think these types of polls are damaging and academically dishonest.

[Tacachale]

478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.

That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.

Polls are also not really predictions — they're temperature taking from the time poll was done. Things change over time. For example, Davis and Cumber appear to have lost headway from all their negative bickering, but if either got into the general, a lot of folks currently turned off by their antics would support them.

[jaxlongtimer]

The only televised mayoral debate is tonight at 8 PM on Channel 4/WJXT.  It's hosted by JU.

....News4JAX has partnered with JU's Public Policy Institute to ask the seven candidates questions our viewers have told us are important to them....

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/03/08/mayoral-candidates-ready-to-take-stage-debate-jacksonvilles-future/

[pierre]

Not a very inspiring debate to be honest. Daniel Davis seems in over his head. There seems to be a reason that other people do most of the talking in his campaign ads. And I don't think Ferraro answered any questions without bringing up crime. Donna is built for this and seemed to do the best.

[Charles Hunter]

I saw a new Davis ad this morning, with him talking to the camera about how bad it is that there are nasty ads attacking him.
Also, in an interview (on FCN?) he said he looked forward to being able to talk, and advertise, about the issues and get away from the attack ads. Why don't you just go ahead and do it? Is this a pledge (or hint) he won't attack Deegan like he is Ferroro and Cumber?

[fsu813]

I saw a new Davis ad this morning, with him talking to the camera about how bad it is that there are nasty ads attacking him.
Also, in an interview (on FCN?) he said he looked forward to being able to talk, and advertise, about the issues and get away from the attack ads. Why don't you just go ahead and do it? Is this a pledge (or hint) he won't attack Deegan like he is Ferroro and Cumber?

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/one-on-one-mayoral-candidate-daniel-davis/77-70c1f9a5-499d-4498-8d23-850ad82af3fc

The R vs R vs R in the defacto primary is a blood sport.

The general election, like always, appeals to a broader audience, thus the messages become less robotic, less partisan, more positive/visionary.

I'd wager this election will follow the same formula. Note "less" is not zero : )

[JeffreyS]

The Debate wasn't that great Donna didn't make any gaffes as the front runner. Davis has potential but needs public speaking help. The rest seem like long shots.  I'm supporting Donna and think she has a great chance. 

[WarDamJagFan]

I just wish any of these candidates would stop speaking in generalities (I'll lower crime! Improve Education! My opponent is Satan reincarnated as Hitler!) and give us some specifics on what exactly they propose to fix this beautiful city. Something like... permitting. Bailey's Gym has been trying to open a gym in the old Stein Mart building off Baymeadowns/9A for what seems like an eternity. Originally scheduled to open this time last year,  Bailey's claims the city planning department continues to drag its feet and has yet to issue their permit to open. A simple gym in an already-constructed-building taking as long to permit as a 200 unit single-family neighborhood.

Sure, there's a chance Bailey's may be to blame but given the city's track record, I highly doubt it.

[Steve]

I was thinking about this.....we could be repeating 2011 here. The best funded Republican and the top democrat make the runoff, but the Republican's inability to actually communicate with people and be presentable could be the Republican's downfall.

In 2011 the first polling between Mike Hogan and Alvin Brown had a 65-35 advantage for Hogan, and Brown overtook him narrowly on election night.

Davis' campaign has truly been uninspiring to this point.

[JeffreyS]

And Davis won't be starting with a polling lead.

[Charles Hunter]

Hypocrisy, thy name is Davis.
While his PAC runs attack ads, he has an ad whining about being attacked.

[pierre]

Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.

[fsu813]

Hypocrisy, thy name is Davis.
While his PAC runs attack ads, he has an ad whining about being attacked.

Have you followed politics in the past 200 years?

Hypocrisy wasn't invented in 2023, nor by any particular candidate.

[fsu813]

Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.

He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.

[jaxlongtimer]

Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.

He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.

You know if DeSantis endorses him he is merely a pawn/lapdog for DeSantis (just see his track record in the Legislature here:  https://ballotpedia.org/Jason_Fischer.)  That's what earns a DeSantis endorsement nowadays.  Based on my observations of his performance in this and his prior elected office, the Duval County School Board, he is in the same league as a Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green or Lauren Boebert, among other wacko GOP'ers.