Could Carnival Leave Jax?

[jaxlongtimer]

With the COVID crisis, Carnival plans to substantially reduce their fleet by scrapping or selling at least 6 ships in the next 90 days with more to follow after that.

The Jacksonville Carnival cruise ship, the Ecstasy, is the second oldest ship (1991) in the Carnival Corp.'s fleet.  It might be a likely candidate for disposal under these circumstances.  I am not sure if any of their newer ships can sail under Dames Point Bridge so if they retire their older and smaller ships Jax could be left without a cruise port at some point, aside from the fact that if they sail fewer ships they will likely have fewer home ports.  Given we are a one-ship port, again, one has to wonder how much longer they sail from Jax.

https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-sells-six-cruise-ships-more-to-come/

Excerpt with emphasis added:

Carnival Corp. Sells Six Cruise Ships, More To Come

Only a few days after Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald said there would definitely "be an acceleration of retirement of ships," financial documents revealed that at least six ships will be leaving the fleet in the coming days.

In addition to the six ships which already are definitely leaving various Carnival Corporation brands, Donald has indicated that there are negotiations in place which could see more vessels exiting as well.

Which Ships Will Carnival Be Getting Rid Of?

The topic of older ships and their potential fates came up during the executive's extensive chat with Brian Kelly — founder and CEO of The Points Guy — during a webinar hosted by the site. In discussing the Carnival Cruise Line fleet, Kelly specifically asked if perhaps the Fantasy-class ships, being the oldest, might be phased out.

"First of all, a lot of people love those Fantasy-class ships," pointed out Donald.

For those perhaps not familiar with the ships, they include the Carnival Fantasy (built in 1990), Ecstasy (1991), Sensation (1993), Fascination (1994), Imagination (1995), Inspiration (1996), Elation (1998) and Paradise (1998). This is actually the largest collection of ships, by class, in the fleet.

"They book well and they sail well, and we always keep them fresh," elaborated the CEO of the vessels. "You don't want any ship out there that isn't aligned with guest expectations, so you have to keep the ship fresh."

"Having said that," he continued, "absolutely, there will be an acceleration of retirement of ships. There's no question about that. I'd go so far as to say it's highly probable you're going to see some ships actually scrapped as opposed to just moving to secondary or tertiary markets."

A few days later, as Carnival prepared to disclose their earnings for the second quarter of 2020, we got a bit more information regarding the situation.

A preliminary statement read, in part, "In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the remove of ships in fiscal 2020, which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of six ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements."

[FlaBoy]

With the COVID crisis, Carnival plans to substantially reduce their fleet by scrapping or selling at least 6 ships in the next 90 days with more to follow after that.

The Jacksonville Carnival cruise ship, the Ecstasy, is the second oldest ship (1991) in the Carnival Corp.'s fleet.  It might be a likely candidate for disposal under these circumstances.  I am not sure if any of their newer ships can sail under Dames Point Bridge so if they retire their older and smaller ships Jax could be left without a cruise port at some point, aside from the fact that if they sail fewer ships they will likely have fewer home ports.  Given we are a one-ship port, again, one has to wonder how much longer they sail from Jax.

https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-sells-six-cruise-ships-more-to-come/

Excerpt with emphasis added:

Carnival Corp. Sells Six Cruise Ships, More To Come

Only a few days after Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald said there would definitely "be an acceleration of retirement of ships," financial documents revealed that at least six ships will be leaving the fleet in the coming days.

In addition to the six ships which already are definitely leaving various Carnival Corporation brands, Donald has indicated that there are negotiations in place which could see more vessels exiting as well.

Which Ships Will Carnival Be Getting Rid Of?

The topic of older ships and their potential fates came up during the executive's extensive chat with Brian Kelly — founder and CEO of The Points Guy — during a webinar hosted by the site. In discussing the Carnival Cruise Line fleet, Kelly specifically asked if perhaps the Fantasy-class ships, being the oldest, might be phased out.

"First of all, a lot of people love those Fantasy-class ships," pointed out Donald.

For those perhaps not familiar with the ships, they include the Carnival Fantasy (built in 1990), Ecstasy (1991), Sensation (1993), Fascination (1994), Imagination (1995), Inspiration (1996), Elation (1998) and Paradise (1998). This is actually the largest collection of ships, by class, in the fleet.

"They book well and they sail well, and we always keep them fresh," elaborated the CEO of the vessels. "You don't want any ship out there that isn't aligned with guest expectations, so you have to keep the ship fresh."

"Having said that," he continued, "absolutely, there will be an acceleration of retirement of ships. There's no question about that. I'd go so far as to say it's highly probable you're going to see some ships actually scrapped as opposed to just moving to secondary or tertiary markets."

A few days later, as Carnival prepared to disclose their earnings for the second quarter of 2020, we got a bit more information regarding the situation.

A preliminary statement read, in part, "In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the remove of ships in fiscal 2020, which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of six ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements."

They should revive the Mayport Cruise Terminal plan. May get more support this time around without the option of any other location.

[marcuscnelson]

The immediate question in my opinion is, would it be worth it? Considering we've only had one ship at a time since they built the existing terminal in 2003 (save for the Super Bowl), how much of a return would we get on buying the land for a new terminal, building it, and constructing the access infrastructure? Is there room for another full-size cruise port on Florida's east coast, and if there is, should it be Jacksonville? Or is there a better place we can spend that kind of money?

Looking at the proposed area from the old plan on a map, the only thing it has going for it is that it's close to the ocean with no bridges. Other than that, access is limited to the tiny two-lane road from Wonderwood, Mayport doesn't want it anyway, and at least looking at the old plan, there's only room for one ship at a time like before. For $80-100 million, I don't know what the point would be. To top it off, if we are about to head into another recession, Jax will probably be the first port to get dropped anyway.

I'd be sad to see cruises leave, but for that kind of money we could get started on something like First Coast Commuter Rail, which even in the event of a recession is more likely to get use. If anything, a recession where people are pressured to drive less might be good for something like that.

[blizz01]

Didn't we have 2 ships at one time - incl. Celebrity Zenith?  I read that Norwegian isn't looking to sail again until at least late September.  Btw, who's in the market to actually buy six ships in today's world?

[bl8jaxnative]

hey for the right price.... 

I would agree that building a new cruise ship port isn't a good idea.  After all, it never got funding back before we were all wondering who's ever going to sail again.    Think of all the flu breakouts they had before covid19.

The current one  may turn out to be just fine.  It piggy backs off of what's done for JAXport in general.  And there isn't much to it to keep it running.

Who knows, we may see the big players in the industry shift to smaller ships.

[acme54321]

The cruise terminal should be moved to Blount Island.  The nownunused coal dock that supported the FPL plant could be repurposed.  There's open land for parking facilities there too.

[jaxjaguar]

According to wikipedia the Carnival Ecstacy is slated for retirement this year (although I couldn't find any official statements from Carnival...

Anyways, Blount Island is definitely the answer. It 25 minutes from the airport, downtown, the St Johns Town Center and the beaches. If the cruise port were moved there we could handle any ship in Carnivals fleet and have room to allow a second ship to dock. Bus transportation from the airport and nearby would be a breeze. It's a no brainer, therefore our cities leadership will fund tearing down the existing cruise port without any plans or intentions of ever replacing it. 

[Charles Hunter]

Is there room on Blount Island? I recall that TraPac is moving from Dames Point, west of the bridge, to Blount Island, so their large ships can continue to use the port.  I see the former coal dock that acme mentioned. It will require a lot of infrastructure work to make it "cruiser-friendly" instead of "coal-friendly," but might be do-able. Another question, will the Marines allow thousands of civilians that close (right at the fenceline) to their facility on the eastern half of Blount Island?

[jaxlongtimer]

Is there room on Blount Island? I recall that TraPac is moving from Dames Point, west of the bridge, to Blount Island, so their large ships can continue to use the port.  I see the former coal dock that acme mentioned. It will require a lot of infrastructure work to make it "cruiser-friendly" instead of "coal-friendly," but might be do-able. Another question, will the Marines allow thousands of civilians that close (right at the fenceline) to their facility on the eastern half of Blount Island?

As I recall, the Marines are a top reason Blount Island won't work as a cruise terminal.  When they are handling dangerous or high security cargoes they shut the whole area down.  Thus, availability of the island is probably too uncertain for a cruise line to schedule reliably around.

Looking at an aerial of Blount Island, it also seems the island is pretty well developed.  I didn't see anything of significance not already in use.

[marcuscnelson]

I remember looking on a map a few weeks ago and thinking about Blount Island as a cruise terminal. The biggest challenge I saw was what Charles said, making the infrastructure workable for passenger cruising vs cargo and other uses, and how the space would be laid out. But at this point, I go back to my last post and question the point of building a new cruise terminal at all. Between Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Port Canaveral, and Charleston, how much room really is there for Jacksonville? And is the cost of that room worth it given the other things we could spend that kind of money on?

This reminds me of reading the St. Augustine Airport's master plan, and their idea to spend something like a quarter billion dollars on runway expansions and additions, bigger terminals, new hangars, access roads, a taxiway crossing across US-1, it was ridiculous. Meanwhile West Augustine doesn't have sewers. They wanted to build an entire new road through Twelve Mile swamp with a new interchange at I-95 while King Street hasn't had an exit since the day they built the highway. Sometimes we need to choose priorities.

[jaxjaguar]

I've mentioned it before in previous cruise related threads, but this ship brings about 200k-300k tourists to Jax every year. If we really beefed up our terminal and adjusted the location we could easily see 500-600k with the bigger ships we could attract and additional ship capacity. That's nothing to snuff at. I remember a few years ago leaving out of Jax and a surprising number of younger people were on the ship because it's a cheaper destination for many people to drive / fly to and the cruises are less expensive too. If we had a port that could support 2 ships you could have a budget ship and a mid class ship.

If you combined that with improved transit to and from the airport, beaches , town center and downtown it would be a worthwhile additional day or two vacation for many people

[fieldafm]

Is there room on Blount Island? I recall that TraPac is moving from Dames Point, west of the bridge, to Blount Island, so their large ships can continue to use the port.  I see the former coal dock that acme mentioned. It will require a lot of infrastructure work to make it "cruiser-friendly" instead of "coal-friendly," but might be do-able. Another question, will the Marines allow thousands of civilians that close (right at the fenceline) to their facility on the eastern half of Blount Island?

TraPac isn't moving. It seems (shockingly) that they never had any interest in paying a share of port deepening, or paying their share to move their operation on the other side of the bridge (despite Dennis Kelly spending the past decade essentially crying wolf).

Lat year, JaxPort signed a new 25 year lease with existing Blount Island tenant SSA Marine, to expand their container operations at Blount Island (and potentially expanding container cargo to some of the unused breakbulk facilities in the future). SSA chipped in something like $75mm specifically allocated for the channel deepening that has been occurring in stages over the last several years.  I believe this week or next, the Mayor's office is sending over a new budget request for another $70-90mm in funds for the City of Jacksonville's share (beyond the federal money received, JaxPort is issuing I believe $200mm in debt for port deepening).

Several Asian liners have been using those Blount Island berths over the past few years, and the upgraded facility will be able to handle offloads for two post-Panamax vessels concurrently.


In the past, Carnival hasn't been willing to sign long term leases here in Jax.  A couple of years ago, JaxPort expanded ro/ro auto processing facilities using a portion of the cruise terminal parking lot. I think JaxPort wants the cruise terminal to stay, but the facility needs probably $5-10mm in upgrades... and I can't see the port spending that cash (especially facing reduced cargo volume if a global recession persists) without a long term lease. And I would be surprised if Carnival wants to commit to a long term lease given the short and long-term pressures their industry is facing.

[bl8jaxnative]

If we really beefed up our terminal and adjusted the location we could easily see 500-600k with the bigger ships we could attract and additional ship capacity.

We don't need a cruise port to bring in the cruise ship passengers.   

If JAX is looking to bring in more tourists it may make more sense to focus on getting Virgin Trains USA to connect, especially if Virgin connects directly with the cruise port at Canaveral. 

[tufsu1]

Assuming both get started/restarted, Virgin Trains is most interested in connecting with the Port of Miami and the new Virgin Voyages venture.

[marcuscnelson]

I've mentioned it before in previous cruise related threads, but this ship brings about 200k-300k tourists to Jax every year. If we really beefed up our terminal and adjusted the location we could easily see 500-600k with the bigger ships we could attract and additional ship capacity. That's nothing to snuff at. I remember a few years ago leaving out of Jax and a surprising number of younger people were on the ship because it's a cheaper destination for many people to drive / fly to and the cruises are less expensive too. If we had a port that could support 2 ships you could have a budget ship and a mid class ship.

If you combined that with improved transit to and from the airport, beaches , town center and downtown it would be a worthwhile additional day or two vacation for many people

There are a lot of variables involved in that. Acquiring enough land to then design and construct a brand new terminal large enough for bigger and additional ships would be what, $100m? 150m? That's assuming that especially after this mess cruise companies will want to bring more than one ship here and have the burden of building a market. I'm not saying there isn't a market at all, but I question if it's really worth the cost of pursuing it. If we have to put in half a billion dollars in taxpayer money (by the time you account for ancillary costs, the airport & connections, road infrastructure, etc.) to go from 300k to 500k, I'd rather that cash go to community development and useful transportation instead of helping Carnival profit.

In the past, Carnival hasn't been willing to sign long term leases here in Jax.  A couple of years ago, JaxPort expanded ro/ro auto processing facilities using a portion of the cruise terminal parking lot. I think JaxPort wants the cruise terminal to stay, but the facility needs probably $5-10mm in upgrades... and I can't see the port spending that cash (especially facing reduced cargo volume if a global recession persists) without a long term lease. And I would be surprised if Carnival wants to commit to a long term lease given the short and long-term pressures their industry is facing.

That's... not confidence inspiring.

We don't need a cruise port to bring in the cruise ship passengers.   

If JAX is looking to bring in more tourists it may make more sense to focus on getting Virgin Trains USA to connect, especially if Virgin connects directly with the cruise port at Canaveral. 

Has there been any rumor of that? I've heard about the plan to connect with PortMiami, but Canaveral is news to me.