Debating The Future of Cities, and Urban Density, After the Pandemic

[Adam White]

It seems certain to me that working from home will be much more prevalent than in the past. Companies will no longer need huge office buildings to house workers. Most major companies found that with minor tweaks their operations ran smoothly with ALL employees working from home...
I  can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?

Totally. I think there is a possibility that this virus will provide the impetus for changes to happen that have been talked about for a long time, but slowly adopted so far. That said, people oftentimes end up being creatures of habit and also don't necessarily learn lessons too well.

I think my company will probably start looking at downsizing its footprint in Central London in order to make a not-insubstantial savings going forward. The coming months and possibly years are going to be tough on everyone financially - I hope my company (a charity) will do what it can to reduce costs while maintaining most of its employees. We've seen pretty much all of our revenue dry up, as it's tied to college assessments and those just aren't happening!

[thelakelander]

^Depends on the industry. Many require face to face interaction. For those that deal with the general public, equity and access becomes an obstacle that can't be totally resolved virtually. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is not transformative change a few years down the road. Nevertheless, it's way too early to predict a path.

[Adam White]

^Depends on the industry. Many require face to face interaction. For those that deal with the general public, equity and access becomes an obstacle that can't be totally resolved virtually. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is not transformative change a few years down the road. Nevertheless, it's way too early to predict a path.

Of course. I wouldn't expect assembly or abbatoir workers to start working from home 

[bl8jaxnative]

More people in close proximity increases the likelihood of transmission.

That is the ___ONLY__only way it transits.

It doesn't happen by osmosis.  It doesn't happen by looking at someone.  You have to be in close quarters and _indoors_. 

And for thsoe getting lawyeristic, sure you can get it outdoors.  But you have to be doing some mouth to mouth breathing or something similar. 

The issue isn't residential density, it's the density of these transmission vectors.   Concerts, nursing homes, subway cars, buses, meat packing plants airplanes, German beer halls blasting polka while everyone in town is kissing each other on the lips, they're all densely packed with transmission vectors.


No, I'm not making up people in a german town kissing each other on the lips and transmitting COVID19.  It's a real thing.  I am assuming that beer and polka were involved.

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As for what will happen COVID 19 will be a catlyst.   There were already more workers telecommuting than taking transit.    This will be a catalyst to push that further.   

It doesn't take much change for transit to take a big hit.   Many agencies were already heavily dependent on white collar dowtown workers.  If half of them start working remotely jsut a couple days a week, that's gonna really hurt to say the least. 

[marcuscnelson]

I  can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?

Good God, no. If I wanted to go to Zoom University, I would have signed up for UF Online.

[Adam White]

More people in close proximity increases the likelihood of transmission.

That is the ___ONLY__only way it transits.

It doesn't happen by osmosis.  It doesn't happen by looking at someone.  You have to be in close quarters and _indoors_. 

Thanks, mom. You might want to re-read my comment. I was saying MORE people in close proximity INCREASES the likelihood. In other words, the chances. I wasn't commenting on the route of transmission.

But, while we're on that topic, you are incorrect. It is not the ONLY way it is transmitted. No, not also by osmosis, but by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face. You can be the only person on a completely empty bus and touch a hand rail and end up contracting the virus. And while this may not be as likely a way to get infected, it most certainly is a way. That's the reason for all the 'wash your hands' messaging.

[bl8jaxnative]

Sorry, didn't mean to write it in a way that my comments came across as singling you out.  Shouldn've done a better job at that.

On the other hand, don't complain about something and then do the very thing you complain about.   Surface transmission is all about being indoors and in close quarters.   You ain't likely to get it from setting your butt in a pew.  You're going to need to touch that door handle soon after the virus was there and have that moment of non thought and rub your eyes or whatever.   Think of proximity as covering not only physical distance but also time.

[Adam White]

Sorry, didn't mean to write it in a way that my comments came across as singling you out.  Shouldn've done a better job at that.

On the other hand, don't complain about something and then do the very thing you complain about.   Surface transmission is all about being indoors and in close quarters.   You ain't likely to get it from setting your butt in a pew.  You're going to need to touch that door handle soon after the virus was there and have that moment of non thought and rub your eyes or whatever.   Think of proximity as covering not only physical distance but also time.

Fair play - but the virus reportedly can exist on surfaces for quite some time, depending. You're likely to touch something with your hands en route to sitting in that pew, be it the door handle on the way in or the back of the pew in front of yours.

And people touch their faces all the time without even thinking about it (as you pointed out) and it's hard to stop doing it. Also - it can persist on surfaces outside, too. Even though it might degrade in sunlight, it doesn't mean it's not an issue outside. I touch stuff outside all the time. Like I grabbed a shopping cart this morning (they keep those outside here) and had to constantly remind myself not to touch my face, as I have no idea who touched it recently.

Of course, I'm not worried, as such. But it is a wider concern.

In general, I agree that it would appear that the more people around you, the greater the chance of transmission.

[BridgeTroll]

I  can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?

Good God, no. If I wanted to go to Zoom University, I would have signed up for UF Online.

We have all been  saying "good god no" regarding a lot of things... UF is certainly not going to tear down any facilities but they may think twice before adding... they may require certain classes or a percentage of classes to be virtual. This school from home/work from home experiment ain't going away anytime soon...