Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[Steve]

I'd love to see Jacksonville and Charlotte's 1995 GDP.

[FlaBoy]

One thing that I think gets lost sometimes when talking about how the subsidies that Jacksonville offers compares to what other markets offer is that $250 million in Jacksonville isn't the same as $250 million somewhere like Kansas City with larger populations, larger economies, and state income taxes to draw from. For better or worse, the same $250 million Lot J is going to put more strain on a taxypayer in Jacksonville than it would put on a taxpayer in most other markets.

Hopefully someone in the city is doing more in-depth research than a guy sitting in Bellwether on his lunch break, but here's some back-of-the-napkin numbers that I pulled together breaking down NFL market sizes, city growth rates, ticket prices, per capita ticket buying burden, and relative impact to taxpayers of a $208 million investment at Lot vs. other NFL markets.

Looking at the numbers, it's definitely more of a chips-all-in move for Jacksonville than it would be for just about any other NFL market, particularly when you consider that we've already got the third highest market strain to fill the stadium each season (second, if you consider Toronto to be part of the Buffalo market).

I know it's a wildly unpopular opinion, but when you see the relative strain that the Jags put on the local economy, I actually don't hate the idea of sending that one home game a year to London in perpetuity to loosen the burden a little bit and spread that money elsewhere into our local economy.

We're growing, but lots of other cities are growing as well, and I don't know if we've ever going to "catch up" to the point where a lot of sacrifices don't have to be made to keep up with the NFL Jones'.

Strongly believe the intangibles outweigh the ante to play, even if the economic studies show negligible impact.

Copying and pasting the numbers because I think they're interesting and I think they put the ask in a little more context than "what are other cities paying?"

And I also think they refute the stupid arguments that Jacksonville isn't a strong NFL market. Our city has over-performed from day one.

Green Bay must be counting Milwaukee with it. That's a two hour trip.

Buffalo most definitely does not have Toronto.

The amount of growth here is encouraging, but also in the Daytona-Palm Coast metro and Gainesville metro. These are growing metros within 90 minutes of the stadium. Not to mention the booming northern suburbs of Orlando in Sanford/Seminole. The Jaguars just need to win and they have the potential for a regional reach. Also, the NFL is a national brand and each franchise can be a national brand. Kansas City is not a big market, but its national reach is insane right now because they won a Super Bowl, they are favorites for another, and they have a name brand at QB. There are little kids in Oregon, Virginia, and South Carolina growing up as Chiefs fans because of Mahomes and the success.

[Ken_FSU]

^Green Bay pulls in Milwaukee + Madison.

And data for New York & Los Angeles includes 2 teams/16 regular season home games per market.

[landfall]

One thing that I think gets lost sometimes when talking about how the subsidies that Jacksonville offers compares to what other markets offer is that $250 million in Jacksonville isn't the same as $250 million somewhere like Kansas City with larger populations, larger economies, and state income taxes to draw from. For better or worse, the same $250 million Lot J is going to put more strain on a taxypayer in Jacksonville than it would put on a taxpayer in most other markets.

Hopefully someone in the city is doing more in-depth research than a guy sitting in Bellwether on his lunch break, but here's some back-of-the-napkin numbers that I pulled together breaking down NFL market sizes, city growth rates, ticket prices, per capita ticket buying burden, and relative impact to taxpayers of a $208 million investment at Lot vs. other NFL markets.

Looking at the numbers, it's definitely more of a chips-all-in move for Jacksonville than it would be for just about any other NFL market, particularly when you consider that we've already got the third highest market strain to fill the stadium each season (second, if you consider Toronto to be part of the Buffalo market).

I know it's a wildly unpopular opinion, but when you see the relative strain that the Jags put on the local economy, I actually don't hate the idea of sending that one home game a year to London in perpetuity to loosen the burden a little bit and spread that money elsewhere into our local economy.

We're growing, but lots of other cities are growing as well, and I don't know if we've ever going to "catch up" to the point where a lot of sacrifices don't have to be made to keep up with the NFL Jones'.

Strongly believe the intangibles outweigh the ante to play, even if the economic studies show negligible impact.

Copying and pasting the numbers because I think they're interesting and I think they put the ask in a little more context than "what are other cities paying?"

And I also think they refute the stupid arguments that Jacksonville isn't a strong NFL market. Our city has over-performed from day one.

Green Bay must be counting Milwaukee with it. That's a two hour trip.

Buffalo most definitely does not have Toronto.

The amount of growth here is encouraging, but also in the Daytona-Palm Coast metro and Gainesville metro. These are growing metros within 90 minutes of the stadium. Not to mention the booming northern suburbs of Orlando in Sanford/Seminole. The Jaguars just need to win and they have the potential for a regional reach. Also, the NFL is a national brand and each franchise can be a national brand. Kansas City is not a big market, but its national reach is insane right now because they won a Super Bowl, they are favorites for another, and they have a name brand at QB. There are little kids in Oregon, Virginia, and South Carolina growing up as Chiefs fans because of Mahomes and the success.

One of the biggest Jags disappointments since day one IMO is the complete failure to build a regionally strong fanbase. You look at the two teams below us on that list. The Bills have the most Canadian season ticket holders by a mile in the league and a big hold through Rochester and as far as Syracuse. The Saints control virtually all of LA, MS and other decent secondary markets like Mobile and right out to Pensacola.

I'd like to think that one of the benefits of Lot J might be that its much more appealing to spend a day out/weekend in Jacksonville if you are coming from Gainesville, Savannah, Tallahassee, Daytona all decent sized markets that the Jags should be strong in, but we are no more stronger than the Dolphins, Bucs, Falcons, Saints and the usual bandwagon teams like the Steelers and the Cowboys. Winning would help as well of course. The Saints for instance were pretty stagnant pre Katrina if I remember right and didn't have the regional appeal they do in the Gulf South now as they did then. Their fanbase was largely confined to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

[Wacca Pilatka]

Excellent points, Landfall and FlaBoy.  You're right about the Saints, who were at significant risk of being moved in 2005.  The signing of Brees that offseason was historically transformative to their fortunes.

I think the Jags have been a bit unlucky in terms of talent to record ratio - I mean, compare this roster to the almost completely talent-free roster that managed to win 4 games in 2013 - but that's probably a blessing in disguise in that now, finally, comes the opportunity to take a franchise QB and build an enduring regional fan base.  Better to win 1 or 2 and get your long-term guy rather than win 5 and draft at #7 or #8 again.

I always thought it odd that the Weaver-era Jaguars essentially gave up on building a regional media network too.  Look at the list of radio affiliates the Jaguars had in 1995 vs. in the mid-to-late 2000s.  The Jags probably didn't fully take advantage of building regional appeal with their initial 1995-2000 success because the Dolphins and Bucs were good at the same time, and the Falcons made a Super Bowl in that time frame too.

[jaxjags]

"I'd like to think that one of the benefits of Lot J might be that its much more appealing to spend a day out/weekend in Jacksonville if you are coming from Gainesville, Savannah, Tallahassee, Daytona all decent sized markets that the Jags should be strong in,"

This is already true for St. John's Town Center. Jags need to capitalize on this for a combined visit. Really need to have stadium tours on weekends that start at the practice field and ends at LIVE!

[marcuscnelson]

One of the biggest Jags disappointments since day one IMO is the complete failure to build a regionally strong fanbase. You look at the two teams below us on that list. The Bills have the most Canadian season ticket holders by a mile in the league and a big hold through Rochester and as far as Syracuse. The Saints control virtually all of LA, MS and other decent secondary markets like Mobile and right out to Pensacola.

I'd like to think that one of the benefits of Lot J might be that its much more appealing to spend a day out/weekend in Jacksonville if you are coming from Gainesville, Savannah, Tallahassee, Daytona all decent sized markets that the Jags should be strong in, but we are no more stronger than the Dolphins, Bucs, Falcons, Saints and the usual bandwagon teams like the Steelers and the Cowboys. Winning would help as well of course. The Saints for instance were pretty stagnant pre Katrina if I remember right and didn't have the regional appeal they do in the Gulf South now as they did then. Their fanbase was largely confined to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

Someone pointed out in this thread how the Jaguars might not even be North Florida's favorite football team. That would be the Gators, who are on the way to win a championship again. It really is worth pointing out how much on-field performance matters, because after seasons as bad as we've had, people start feeling like suckers.

I wonder if/how the idea of Lot J making Jax more of a day trip place will be helped once Brightline or perhaps improved Amtrak service come to Jacksonville.

Imagine being able to get on a train in Daytona and get off downtown, and ride the Skyway (well, the way things are looking, more likely an Uber) to Lot J to hang out for the day, hopping between some of the museums and restaurants before you catch a game at TIAA Bank (or hell, even the Jumbo Shrimp or an event at the Arena). And at the end of the night, you hop back on a train home. If we ever get leadership with heads out of the gutter, imagine doing the same on an Amtrak from Tallahassee or Savannah or even Gainesville. The Game Day Express, anyone?

[fieldafm]

Someone pointed out in this thread how the Jaguars might not even be North Florida's favorite football team. That would be the Gators

Not according to TV ratings over the last 26 years.

[thelakelander]

"I'd like to think that one of the benefits of Lot J might be that its much more appealing to spend a day out/weekend in Jacksonville if you are coming from Gainesville, Savannah, Tallahassee, Daytona all decent sized markets that the Jags should be strong in,"

This is already true for St. John's Town Center. Jags need to capitalize on this for a combined visit. Really need to have stadium tours on weekends that start at the practice field and ends at LIVE!

Has there been any talk about Lot J having some sort of Jags oriented attraction, like a hall of fame or retail store included?

[FlaBoy]

"I'd like to think that one of the benefits of Lot J might be that its much more appealing to spend a day out/weekend in Jacksonville if you are coming from Gainesville, Savannah, Tallahassee, Daytona all decent sized markets that the Jags should be strong in,"

This is already true for St. John's Town Center. Jags need to capitalize on this for a combined visit. Really need to have stadium tours on weekends that start at the practice field and ends at LIVE!

Has there been any talk about Lot J having some sort of Jags oriented attraction, like a hall of fame or retail store included?

The FL-GA Hall of Fame would be nice have open to the public and maybe combine with a Jaguars oriented hall of fame. Maybe get Fanatics involved?

The Southern Rock/Music Hall of Fame will be close.

[Wacca Pilatka]

Depictions of Lot J have included a Jaguars store.

[Ken_FSU]

I may have missed it but how did we settle on Lot J being Phase 1 for the site of the proposed project? Plus, since things are still so conceptual, would the Jags  be open to considering switching the site to an adjacent parking lot?



Knowing the history of land uses south of Adams Street, would it have made any sense to put the Lot J project on Lots P, N & M? Some benefits would be:

1. Development has greater visibility to Arlington Expressway (51,500 AADT vs 16,600 AADT for Hart Bridge Expressway/Gator Bowl Boulevard) while still maintaining visibility and direct access to Gator Bowl Boulevard.

2. Leaving Lot J capped, the pond and antenna in place, significantly reducing environmental clean up/infrastructure costs ($92.7 million). This gives council a big public win and speeds up the project's completion date by three years.

3. We're turning Gator Bowl Boulevard into a race track. Adams and Duval Streets are more pedestrian friendly and infilling between them would create more cohesive synergy with the Eastside, arena, baseball grounds, Cathedral District and proposed soccer stadium, without sacrificing connectivity with TIAA Bank Field and Daily's Place. In other words, a shift north creates an opportunity for immediate clustering within the Sports District and potentially more economic spinoff in the surrounding area.

4. Allows more time to figure out the proper way to deal with Lot J in the future. Given what we know now, perhaps the practice fields should be built on top of Lot J since their present site is more suitable for infill development? Or perhaps its cleanup should be included as a part of negotiations to update the stadium and extend the lease a couple of years down the road?

This all just makes too much sense, Lake.

Was looking for the post and couldn't find it, but way, way back when the idea first came up about moving development off the Shipyards property and onto the parking lots in conjunction with Cordish, I had heard that Lot P was the initial idea, with a portion of the development overlooking the Baseball Grounds like Ballpark Village.

Somewhere along the way (specifically when brainstorming with the city and Cordish on the Amazon proposal, which necessitated giving the Shipyards to Amazon), the Jags/Cordish fell in love with the idea of building the four block "new neighborhood" on Lot J instead.

Even the current three-or-four phase plan touches all of the surrounding lots (and the Fairgrounds), but leaves both sections of Lot P as surface parking.

On remediation for J, take it for what it's worth, but a friend mentioned to me today that the Jags honestly do think that Lot J can be fully remediated for $5-$6 million, and that Cordish is looking for a minority-owned business to do the job. Also said that they're more worried about subsurface debris than pollutants, and a part of the reason that the development turned mid-rise rather than higher-rise with the high-rise elements potentially pushed to Phase II is because their testing found a ton of shit in the ground from the site's past (literal train equipment and concrete anchors for removing ships from the water) that would make it a challenge/cost-prohibitive to build high on Lot J.

If this is true though, you'd think the Jags would just come out and say it.

Also if it's true, you'd think Phase I's price tag would have dropped considerably after it went mid-rise.

Depictions of Lot J have included a Jaguars store.

Jags gym (these typically have around a $1 million buildout for Cordish) and Jags store.

Plus a street-level Daily's (take that, Whole Foods!)

Someone pointed out in this thread how the Jaguars might not even be North Florida's favorite football team. That would be the Gators.

That's a weird way to spell "Seminoles," Marcus 

So many loud-mouthed Gator fans in this city, so few degrees 

I always thought it odd that the Weaver-era Jaguars essentially gave up on building a regional media network too.  Look at the list of radio affiliates the Jaguars had in 1995 vs. in the mid-to-late 2000s.  The Jags probably didn't fully take advantage of building regional appeal with their initial 1995-2000 success because the Dolphins and Bucs were good at the same time, and the Falcons made a Super Bowl in that time frame too.

Wayne Weaver considers this one of his biggest regrets as owner of the Jags.

The lack of regional marketing outside.

His rationale was that there was so much excitement in the early years, he basically didn't have to market the team.

Admits that rather than being proactive about marketing throughout his run as owner, he only really focused on it when he had to (e.g. when attendance was down).

When Shad Khan bought the team, this was one of the first changes that was made. Chad Johnson in particular over at the Jags was really instrumental in actually getting the Jags on a bus to do outreach in places like Gainesville, Tallahassee, Brunswick, and even places like St. Cloud, Oviedo, and Lake City.

I'd be really curious to hear Wayne Weaver's thoughts on Lot J.

[FlaBoy]

I may have missed it but how did we settle on Lot J being Phase 1 for the site of the proposed project? Plus, since things are still so conceptual, would the Jags  be open to considering switching the site to an adjacent parking lot?



Knowing the history of land uses south of Adams Street, would it have made any sense to put the Lot J project on Lots P, N & M? Some benefits would be:

1. Development has greater visibility to Arlington Expressway (51,500 AADT vs 16,600 AADT for Hart Bridge Expressway/Gator Bowl Boulevard) while still maintaining visibility and direct access to Gator Bowl Boulevard.

2. Leaving Lot J capped, the pond and antenna in place, significantly reducing environmental clean up/infrastructure costs ($92.7 million). This gives council a big public win and speeds up the project's completion date by three years.

3. We're turning Gator Bowl Boulevard into a race track. Adams and Duval Streets are more pedestrian friendly and infilling between them would create more cohesive synergy with the Eastside, arena, baseball grounds, Cathedral District and proposed soccer stadium, without sacrificing connectivity with TIAA Bank Field and Daily's Place. In other words, a shift north creates an opportunity for immediate clustering within the Sports District and potentially more economic spinoff in the surrounding area.

4. Allows more time to figure out the proper way to deal with Lot J in the future. Given what we know now, perhaps the practice fields should be built on top of Lot J since their present site is more suitable for infill development? Or perhaps its cleanup should be included as a part of negotiations to update the stadium and extend the lease a couple of years down the road?

This all just makes too much sense, Lake.

Was looking for the post and couldn't find it, but way, way back when the idea first came up about moving development off the Shipyards property and onto the parking lots in conjunction with Cordish, I had heard that Lot P was the initial idea, with a portion of the development overlooking the Baseball Grounds like Ballpark Village.

Somewhere along the way (specifically when brainstorming with the city and Cordish on the Amazon proposal, which necessitated giving the Shipyards to Amazon), the Jags/Cordish fell in love with the idea of building the four block "new neighborhood" on Lot J instead.

Even the current three-or-four phase plan touches all of the surrounding lots (and the Fairgrounds), but leaves both sections of Lot P as surface parking.

On remediation for J, take it for what it's worth, but a friend mentioned to me today that the Jags honestly do think that Lot J can be fully remediated for $5-$6 million, and that Cordish is looking for a minority-owned business to do the job. Also said that they're more worried about subsurface debris than pollutants, and a part of the reason that the development turned mid-rise rather than higher-rise with the high-rise elements potentially pushed to Phase II is because their testing found a ton of shit in the ground from the site's past (literal train equipment and concrete anchors for removing ships from the water) that would make it a challenge/cost-prohibitive to build high on Lot J.

If this is true though, you'd think the Jags would just come out and say it.

Also if it's true, you'd think Phase I's price tag would have dropped considerably after it went mid-rise.

Depictions of Lot J have included a Jaguars store.

Jags gym (these typically have around a $1 million buildout for Cordish) and Jags store.

Plus a street-level Daily's (take that, Whole Foods!)

Someone pointed out in this thread how the Jaguars might not even be North Florida's favorite football team. That would be the Gators.

That's a weird way to spell "Seminoles," Marcus 

So many loud-mouthed Gator fans in this city, so few degrees 

I always thought it odd that the Weaver-era Jaguars essentially gave up on building a regional media network too.  Look at the list of radio affiliates the Jaguars had in 1995 vs. in the mid-to-late 2000s.  The Jags probably didn't fully take advantage of building regional appeal with their initial 1995-2000 success because the Dolphins and Bucs were good at the same time, and the Falcons made a Super Bowl in that time frame too.

Wayne Weaver considers this one of his biggest regrets as owner of the Jags.

The lack of regional marketing outside.

His rationale was that there was so much excitement in the early years, he basically didn't have to market the team.

Admits that rather than being proactive about marketing throughout his run as owner, he only really focused on it when he had to (e.g. when attendance was down).

When Shad Khan bought the team, this was one of the first changes that was made. Chad Johnson in particular over at the Jags was really instrumental in actually getting the Jags on a bus to do outreach in places like Gainesville, Tallahassee, Brunswick, and even places like St. Cloud, Oviedo, and Lake City.

I'd be really curious to hear Wayne Weaver's thoughts on Lot J.

In a perfect world to me, we would be clustering this around A Philip Randolph more which already has entertainment uses and is closer to Downtown. I think the site of the Doro or First Coast News/Building on Corner of Adams would be great locations for the Jax Live concept. Cordish could even keep some of the Doro like it did in Louisville with their version of a Cordish development. Baseball and events at the arena occur more frequently anyway. The current plan for the Doro could be put on Lot P along Adams. Put another development on Lot J at the top of the retention pond (office building) that can make use of the parking in Lot J as well.

This could create synergy for several blocks of development. Jags fans would go to that area, and already do with Intuition, for the 8-9 games a year. But it would be more convenient to the Baseball Ground and Arena. This also leaves Lot J to park for games and to tailgate.

[thelakelander]

On remediation for J, take it for what it's worth, but a friend mentioned to me today that the Jags honestly do think that Lot J can be fully remediated for $5-$6 million, and that Cordish is looking for a minority-owned business to do the job. Also said that they're more worried about subsurface debris than pollutants, and a part of the reason that the development turned mid-rise rather than higher-rise with the high-rise elements potentially pushed to Phase II is because their testing found a ton of shit in the ground from the site's past (literal train equipment and concrete anchors for removing ships from the water) that would make it a challenge/cost-prohibitive to build high on Lot J.

If this is true though, you'd think the Jags would just come out and say it.

Also if it's true, you'd think Phase I's price tag would have dropped considerably after it went mid-rise.

It sucks that we're stuck to Lot J. Just switching to a cleaner adjacent parking lot, changes so many dynamics of this deal by saving time, the taxpayers millions and making the entire sports district cohesive between the stadium and arena. It also gives the Eastside more of a permanent economic boost.

[Ken_FSU]

^Spoiler: The Jags are putting the $65 million towards renting an actual breadbox.

Another City Council meeting on Lot J just ended.

Not a lot coming out of it, besides the final seven items starting to take shape that there's no agreement on.

Lamping conceded that the Jags are fine waiting until January 7th for a vote and support the City Council taking their time to vet the deal, though I think a lot of this might stem from a realization (voiced from several of the fence-sitters at the last public meeting) that a rushed vote probably isn't advantageous to the Jags.

It's interesting to try to read into these meetings, particularly in terms of who attends and who doesn't, but right now, a couple of council members seem to be probable no votes at this point:

1) Carlucci (still beating the same drum about an independent market study and about not fleecing season ticket holders (I'd personally be more upset about the underprivileged/underserved community than NFL season ticket holders struggling to get by)
2) DeFoor (she hasn't been able to hide her bad attitude/disapproval about this thing since that first workshop she hosted with Carlucci; requested a $150 million clawback provision today, which went over with an already cranky Mark Lamping about as well as you'd expect)

The following Council members I've got as definite yes votes on my Lot J bracket:

1) Gaffney (would vote yes twice if he could)
2) Cumber
3) Bowman
4) Diamond
5) Newby
6) Freeman
7) White
8 ) Pittman

Fence-sitters feel like:
1) Becton (who's been very vocal but hard to read about which way he'll ultimately vote)
2) Salem (he seemed like more of a yes coming out of this meeting than he's been yet)
3) Dennis (he's worried about the size of the spend and where it's going to leave our borrowing capacity going into other asks)
4) Hazouri (for a guy who's constantly complaining about City Council not getting their questions answered, he's now showed up at exactly 0 of these Q&A workshops; I think he ultimately votes yes)

The other five council members, I've got no clue, but judging from the fact that most haven't attended many meetings, I'd be more inclined to think that they've been yes votes from the beginning than no votes.

IF Becton and Salem swing yes, or Becton and Hazouri vote yes, I have a hard time thinking there's much of a chance that this thing gets voted down.

Also, I know he's got his rep, but watching Paul Harden in action gives me new respect for how good this guy is at doing his thing and greasing the wheels.

Another Council meeting today.

Another no-show by Hazouri (making the most outspoken guy about unanswered questions a perfect 0% in workshop attendance).

Moving Boylan into the definite yes category, and Salem into the very probable yes category.

I also get the sense that there's a real chance that Dennis could vote no as well.

If I'm Vegas, the over-under on no votes is looking like 4.5 right now.

If DeFoor and Hazouri's new proposed clawback amendment passes (which I don't think it will), I think it'd be close to unanimous.