Khan, Jaguars expect Lot J development to begin early 2020

[thelakelander]

Just thinking, "The Banks" in Cincinnati looks pretty much almost to a tee what I'd expect for this "game changer." A half-finished cookie cutter project on the cusp of Downtown Cincinnati near the sports/events venues anchored by two large apartment blocks, a mid-upper end hotel and some chain bars/restaurants and a small number of convenience amenities. That looks a lot more like what I am expecting of this than Ballpark Village or Power and Light.  A lot for not a lot. Still, beggars cannot be choosers, or something like that....

Although closer to the heart of Downtown Cincinnati, The Banks is a good larger example of the Lot J vision. Does anyone consider it to be a game  changer?

[Ken_FSU]

^Similar vision, but gone about in a much better way.

Master planned with an enormous amount of input from the public, urban designers, and city government.

Funded through a tax increase approved via voter referendum, and tied to a larger plan to replace the football and baseball stadiums.

Executed in multiple phases, driven by market demand, in cooperation with multiple private developers chosen through a consistent RFP process.

Even this more realistic example is multiple times the scale of the latest proposal at Lot J.

[thelakelander]

Here's the master development plan for the Banks. What's built so far is larger than Lot J:

[thelakelander]

Pictures of the Banks from a 2012 trip I took to Cincinnati:

[Tacachale]

We've not written about Lot J, but a few things I've noticed that I don't think are getting the coverage they deserve:

• The Jags negotiated this deal with the Mayor and his staff. If it's a bad deal (it is) it's because Curry and Brian Hughes were totally outnegotiated by the Jags.
• The rollout of this thing is a disaster, and should be a bigger story than it is. It's been a master class in what not to do. The mayor and Hughes made absolutely no effort to get buy-in from taxpayers, and they evidently didn't put sufficient work in with much of City Council. Now it's biting them in the ass, and even still the mayor's promotion of his own deal has been largely limited to a few apocalyptic comments and tweets. Hughes and co brand themselves as the world's greatest pollsters, PR gurus and spinmeisters who never stop winning. It's interesting that they have continued to fair so poorly with this.
• As unfortunate as it is, City Council doesn't really have a way to go back and renegotiate this bum deal. They can demand some changes, but at the end of the day, they're just voting up or down on a version of a deal that will at most be modestly altered.
• Let's be real: if City Council shoots this down, it's very likely that the Jaguars start looking elsewhere. It sucks to say it, but that's what this deal really is: a step toward keeping the Jags.
• IThe Jags should have known such an obviously lopsided deal would get pushback, but at the end of the day, it was the mayor who negotiated our side of it. Buck stops there.

[Charles Hunter]

Would it be in the Jaguars' long-term interest for them to request the current deal be pulled, and the City proceed with remediation of Lot J while the deal is renegotiated, including Metro Park and Stadium Renovations?  By treating this horrible Lot J deal as a stand-alone, are they poisoning the water for seeking City funds for Metro Park / Four Seasons and the Stadium as future separate deals?
Or, do they think they have the City over such a barrel that they can get away with anything?

[Tacachale]

Would it be in the Jaguars' long-term interest for them to request the current deal be pulled, and the City proceed with remediation of Lot J while the deal is renegotiated, including Metro Park and Stadium Renovations?  By treating this horrible Lot J deal as a stand-alone, are they poisoning the water for seeking City funds for Metro Park / Four Seasons and the Stadium as future separate deals?
Or, do they think they have the City over such a barrel that they can get away with anything?

I mean, there's a lot that goes into developing these deals, and they'd have to throw it away and start from scratch. I wouldn't want to do that if I were them. What I would do, though, is start negotiating all the future deals in a package, and do it transparently.

[Ken_FSU]

We've not written about Lot J, but a few things I've noticed that I don't think are getting the coverage they deserve:

• The Jags negotiated this deal with the Mayor and his staff. If it's a bad deal (it is) it's because Curry and Brian Hughes were totally outnegotiated by the Jags.
• The rollout of this thing is a disaster, and should be a bigger story than it is. It's been a master class in what not to do. The mayor and Hughes made absolutely no effort to get buy-in from taxpayers, and they evidently didn't put sufficient work in with much of City Council. Now it's biting them in the ass, and even still the mayor's promotion of his own deal has been largely limited to a few apocalyptic comments and tweets. Hughes and co brand themselves as the world's greatest pollsters, PR gurus and spinmeisters who never stop winning. It's interesting that they have continued to fair so poorly with this.
• As unfortunate as it is, City Council doesn't really have a way to go back and renegotiate this bum deal. They can demand some changes, but at the end of the day, they're just voting up or down on a version of a deal that will at most be modestly altered.
• Let's be real: if City Council shoots this down, it's very likely that the Jaguars start looking elsewhere. It sucks to say it, but that's what this deal really is: a step toward keeping the Jags.
• IThe Jags should have known such an obviously lopsided deal would get pushback, but at the end of the day, it was the mayor who negotiated our side of it. Buck stops there.

Totally agree with all of the above, Bill.

It's why I support Lot J, even though I absolutely hate almost everything about the way it's gone down.

With the power and wealth of the NFL and Shad Khan, we're not going to win a game of chicken.

The Jags have poured years into this deal, and unfortunately, the mayor has been negotiating in their interests, rather than the taxpayers. I just don't see a universe where we can ask the Jags and Cordish to restart the deal from ground zero and not have them say thanks but no thanks and walk.

It's a classic prisoner's dilemna situation. And it's also why I just want to see this damn thing voted on. We all know we're getting fucked. We all seem to know there's no real way around getting fucked if we want to remain in the NFL game because Curry has already dragged the Jags along for two years. Might as well just get it over with and move on to figuring out what we can learn to prevent us from ending up in the same situation again next time. 

If for no other reason than witnessing how this all went down, I like to think that the Jags will make every effort possible to go through the proper channels next time, in a much more transparent way. And I think they realize they're not going to get the same sweetheart deal on future non-stadium development agreements.

I will also say that our stadium lease doesn't expire for almost a decade, and I don't necessarily agree with some people's assertions that we should be in a rush to pour $350 million in public money instead into stadium enhancements when that spend can be kicked down the road to nearly the end of the decade. Particularly when it's the ancillary local-revenue drivers like Daily's Place and Lot J that the Jags are most concerned about right now.

All much-warranted commentary about how bad the deal is for the city aside, if we HAVE to spend $200 million in cash now as the price of remaining the Jags' long-term choice for host cities, I'd rather it go into a 365-day a year use like Lot J than prematurely breaking the bank on stadium improvements that are probably gonna have a worse ROI than Lot J.

Here's my BIGGEST concern though right now.

Those with commercial real estate backgrounds feel free to correct me, but I just do not know where the $460 million for this development is going. If we're going to put such an insane amount of money up as a city, I'd love to see us make sure we're getting the absolute most for that spend that we can.

Just looking at the renders, the price seems pretty crazy for what we're actually walking away with.

Let's do a little tale of the tape.

Here's the 8-acre project, which is estimated by the developer to cost $457 million, and comprises a minimum of 350 residential units, 120 hotel rooms, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of Live! retail (plus the event space).



For comparison, let's look at something like Midtown Tampa which is currently under development.

The project is about 10% more expensive ($500 million), almost three times as large (22 acres), and comprises 10 buildings, inclusive of 400 apartments, two office towers, a 52,000 square foot Whole Foods, a 230 room hotel, a 22,000 square foot REI, tons of restaurants, a 1,200 space parking garage, green space and recreational trails, etc.

How is it possible that Tampa is building a 2-million square foot development that's three times as large, with six more buildings, two office towers, a high-end grocery story, twice the hotel rooms, twice the restaurtants, and twice the parking garage for 10% more?



Another random example that I see when I'm in Nashville is Fifth+Broadway.

It's made up of a 34-story apartment tower, 200,000 square feet of retail space, nine restaurants, a massive food hall, a 372,000 square foot office tower, the new National Museum of African American Music, and three parking garages comprising 2,140 spots. And the entire development is $30 million cheaper than the 350 mid-rise apartments, 120 room hotel, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of retail at Lot J?



It just doesn't really compute.

Even if you assume that $20 million in remediation costs (on the very highest end) are exclusive to our development, I just do not see why this thing can't be done for $300 million, OR why we're not getting a lot more bang for our buck here.

Feels like the Phase II office tower + garage, or the Phase III residential being discussed for the Fairgrounds should be able to fit within a nearly half-billion dollar spend.

What am I missing here?

Is it ALL tenant build out driving this cost?

Is there an example of a similar project in another city costing $457 million dollars?

Should four residential, hotel, and retail buildings cost the same as 9 Daily's Places?

Give them the check to save the team, but with a subsequent $100 million ask coming for whatever happens at Met Park, I really hope we make sure that we get our money's worth for this Lot J spend.

[jaxlongtimer]

^

Here's the 8-acre project, which is estimated by the developer to cost $457 million, and comprises a minimum of 350 residential units, 120 hotel rooms, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of Live! retail (plus the event space).

Here is another way to approach the costs the Jags are asking for:

Based on recent apartment sales, if you figure a luxury apartment in Jax cost at the higher end (sans land) $200,000/unit x 350 units, that's $70 million.  Figure the same for the 120 hotel rooms just to be generous.  That's another $24 million.  Figure a generous $200/sf for the office space, that's $7 million.  Figure another generous $500/sf for the LIVE! and you get another $37.5 million.  Add it up and you have $138.5 million, sans land.  Pile on another 25% of the total (about anther $35 million) for outdoor amenities and some bells and whistles I might be overlooking.  That brings you to $173.5 million in construction costs.  Round it up another $27 million for garages  and some more fantasy add-ons and you are at $200 million.  Add the land which DIA valued at $12 million.  This, $212 million, is the absolute most this project should be worth.  It's not even half of the number the Jags are putting out there. 

Go on and add $75 +/- million for the maximum clean up and infrastructure estimates (per DIA report and after subtracting the garages included above), and you are at $287 million, $170 million or so less than the Jag's ask.  And this is with some numbers per above that appear to be far more generous than even DIA's cost estimates.

Split the $287 million 50/50 with the City and the City would be in for $144 million tops vs. $245 million from the City now being thrown around with the addition of the land - nets a $101 million over-ask!

Tell me what I am missing.

[thelakelander]

You're missing that they're likely pocketing millions in cash straight up. That's the biggest revenue driver here, not a little Landing, Jr. with the next PBR [insert name] or Yard House. There's a public dollar figure here that hasn't changed but all the flashy tower renderings (many here said were fool's gold) have been replaced with a smaller Landing next to other uses that are more equivalent to a Doro and Residence Inn by Marriott in Brooklyn. This isn't about a vibrant downtown either, because you can get more bang for your vibrancy buck spreading that around the actual downtown. However, that means that cash goes to different pockets. I really wish they could be transparent with this.

[landfall]

We've not written about Lot J, but a few things I've noticed that I don't think are getting the coverage they deserve:

• The Jags negotiated this deal with the Mayor and his staff. If it's a bad deal (it is) it's because Curry and Brian Hughes were totally outnegotiated by the Jags.
• The rollout of this thing is a disaster, and should be a bigger story than it is. It's been a master class in what not to do. The mayor and Hughes made absolutely no effort to get buy-in from taxpayers, and they evidently didn't put sufficient work in with much of City Council. Now it's biting them in the ass, and even still the mayor's promotion of his own deal has been largely limited to a few apocalyptic comments and tweets. Hughes and co brand themselves as the world's greatest pollsters, PR gurus and spinmeisters who never stop winning. It's interesting that they have continued to fair so poorly with this.
• As unfortunate as it is, City Council doesn't really have a way to go back and renegotiate this bum deal. They can demand some changes, but at the end of the day, they're just voting up or down on a version of a deal that will at most be modestly altered.
• Let's be real: if City Council shoots this down, it's very likely that the Jaguars start looking elsewhere. It sucks to say it, but that's what this deal really is: a step toward keeping the Jags.
• IThe Jags should have known such an obviously lopsided deal would get pushback, but at the end of the day, it was the mayor who negotiated our side of it. Buck stops there.

Totally agree with all of the above, Bill.

It's why I support Lot J, even though I absolutely hate almost everything about the way it's gone down.

With the power and wealth of the NFL and Shad Khan, we're not going to win a game of chicken.

The Jags have poured years into this deal, and unfortunately, the mayor has been negotiating in their interests, rather than the taxpayers. I just don't see a universe where we can ask the Jags and Cordish to restart the deal from ground zero and not have them say thanks but no thanks and walk.

It's a classic prisoner's dilemna situation. And it's also why I just want to see this damn thing voted on. We all know we're getting fucked. We all seem to know there's no real way around getting fucked if we want to remain in the NFL game because Curry has already dragged the Jags along for two years. Might as well just get it over with and move on to figuring out what we can learn to prevent us from ending up in the same situation again next time. 

If for no other reason than witnessing how this all went down, I like to think that the Jags will make every effort possible to go through the proper channels next time, in a much more transparent way. And I think they realize they're not going to get the same sweetheart deal on future non-stadium development agreements.

I will also say that our stadium lease doesn't expire for almost a decade, and I don't necessarily agree with some people's assertions that we should be in a rush to pour $350 million in public money instead into stadium enhancements when that spend can be kicked down the road to nearly the end of the decade. Particularly when it's the ancillary local-revenue drivers like Daily's Place and Lot J that the Jags are most concerned about right now.

All much-warranted commentary about how bad the deal is for the city aside, if we HAVE to spend $200 million in cash now as the price of remaining the Jags' long-term choice for host cities, I'd rather it go into a 365-day a year use like Lot J than prematurely breaking the bank on stadium improvements that are probably gonna have a worse ROI than Lot J.

Here's my BIGGEST concern though right now.

Those with commercial real estate backgrounds feel free to correct me, but I just do not know where the $460 million for this development is going. If we're going to put such an insane amount of money up as a city, I'd love to see us make sure we're getting the absolute most for that spend that we can.

Just looking at the renders, the price seems pretty crazy for what we're actually walking away with.

Let's do a little tale of the tape.

Here's the 8-acre project, which is estimated by the developer to cost $457 million, and comprises a minimum of 350 residential units, 120 hotel rooms, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of Live! retail (plus the event space).



For comparison, let's look at something like Midtown Tampa which is currently under development.

The project is about 10% more expensive ($500 million), almost three times as large (22 acres), and comprises 10 buildings, inclusive of 400 apartments, two office towers, a 52,000 square foot Whole Foods, a 230 room hotel, a 22,000 square foot REI, tons of restaurants, a 1,200 space parking garage, green space and recreational trails, etc.

How is it possible that Tampa is building a 2-million square foot development that's three times as large, with six more buildings, two office towers, a high-end grocery story, twice the hotel rooms, twice the restaurtants, and twice the parking garage for 10% more?



Another random example that I see when I'm in Nashville is Fifth+Broadway.

It's made up of a 34-story apartment tower, 200,000 square feet of retail space, nine restaurants, a massive food hall, a 372,000 square foot office tower, the new National Museum of African American Music, and three parking garages comprising 2,140 spots. And the entire development is $30 million cheaper than the 350 mid-rise apartments, 120 room hotel, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of retail at Lot J?



It just doesn't really compute.

Even if you assume that $20 million in remediation costs (on the very highest end) are exclusive to our development, I just do not see why this thing can't be done for $300 million, OR why we're not getting a lot more bang for our buck here.

Feels like the Phase II office tower + garage, or the Phase III residential being discussed for the Fairgrounds should be able to fit within a nearly half-billion dollar spend.

What am I missing here?

Is it ALL tenant build out driving this cost?

Is there an example of a similar project in another city costing $457 million dollars?

Should four residential, hotel, and retail buildings cost the same as 9 Daily's Places?

Give them the check to save the team, but with a subsequent $100 million ask coming for whatever happens at Met Park, I really hope we make sure that we get our money's worth for this Lot J spend.

Some good analysis there. Not only do those projects get way more value for money, I'd also be very surprised the Lot J tenant mix remotely matches up. They have Shake Shack and Whole Foods. Where as I'm expecting Lot J to be more along the lines of Miller's Ale House and Jimmy John's, businesses which line just about every suburban strip mall and retail center in North East Florida. Of course the point Lamping will make is that these venues will provide dining and entertainment options for people attending events or living in this area. I'm hardly confident though in their ability to attract eye opening tenants given its going to be the Jags and Khans other various ops filling the office space now and they failed to attract an employer from the suburbs or elsewhere to move, hence the continual downsizing of the project to what it is amounting to currently.

[vicupstate]

It's made up of a 34-story apartment tower, 200,000 square feet of retail space, nine restaurants, a massive food hall, a 372,000 square foot office tower, the new National Museum of African American Music, and three parking garages comprising 2,140 spots. And the entire development is $30 million cheaper than the 350 mid-rise apartments, 120 room hotel, 35,000 square feet of office space, and 75,000 of retail at Lot J?

I bet they had to pay something for the land as well, most likely a very large sum.

[vicupstate]

You're missing that they're likely pocketing millions in cash straight up. That's the biggest revenue driver here, not a little Landing, Jr. with the next PBR [insert name] or Yard House. There's a public dollar figure here that hasn't changed but all the flashy tower renderings (many here said were fool's gold) have been replaced with a smaller Landing next to other uses that are more equivalent to a Doro and Residence Inn by Marriott in Brooklyn. This isn't about a vibrant downtown either, because you can get more bang for your vibrancy buck spreading that around the actual downtown. However, that means that cash goes to different pockets. I really wish they could be transparent with this.

I agree 100% but the reason they can't be more transparent is because then more people would see the numbers don't add up and the taxpayers are paying the full tab for this project. Khan and Lamping are con men pure and simple, and Curry and his henchmen are carrying their water.   

[thelakelander]

Some good analysis there. Not only do those projects get way more value for money, I'd also be very surprised the Lot J tenant mix remotely matches up. They have Shake Shack and Whole Foods. Where as I'm expecting Lot J to be more along the lines of Miller's Ale House and Jimmy John's, businesses which line just about every suburban strip mall and retail center in North East Florida. Of course the point Lamping will make is that these venues will provide dining and entertainment options for people attending events or living in this area. I'm hardly confident though in their ability to attract eye opening tenants given its going to be the Jags and Khans other various ops filling the office space now and they failed to attract an employer from the suburbs or elsewhere to move, hence the continual downsizing of the project to what it is amounting to currently.

Lot J's tenants will very well likely be largely made of chains, restaurants, nightclub and bar concepts featured in most other Cordish Live! projects. Live!'s don't have Shake Shack and Whole Foods. Supermarkets aren't a part of the concept. Here are the type of tenants likely headed to Lot J:

- Some sort of tavern and beer garden (probably Miller's)
- PBR [insert local name]
- Sports & Social [insert name]
- [insert name] Backyard


You can see the list of tenants in several other Live! venues here:

https://www.powerplantlive.com/eat-and-drink
https://texas-live.com/eat-and-drink
https://www.xfinitylive.com/eat-and-drink
https://www.stlballparkvillage.com/eat-and-drink
https://www.4thstlive.com/eat-and-drink


It's just really interesting to see everything unfold in this manner. It really reeks of incompetence on the city's part to see this is where we started out, with the mayor all smug in the news talking all about getting tower cranes up and changing the skyline....




to this, a smaller version of what immediately surrounds Unity Plaza......but for more public subsidies than originally anticipated for what was pushed in the rendering above. So this is clearly a desire to funnel millions into the Jag's pockets to help sustain them. When this all breaks down, the public investment probably pays 100% to build what's proposed at Lot J.



I agree with the other posts that it would likely be easier to stomach if rolled out in a different manner and if the team working on the city's behalf were qualified to negotiate these types of deals. It's a tough pill to swallow but this is why local elections are really important. Hopefully, the general public can learn from the last couple of years from the clownsmanship surrounding the JEA sale, the DCPS referendum, and this Lot J thing and apply the lessons learned to the next local election.

[marcuscnelson]

So it sounds like we're coming around to the final stage of grief here, which I guess is fair. The fact that it feels like we can't really do much for a better deal is absolutely infuriating, especially when we're proving that taxpayers are just getting absolutely screwed on it. It's just... what a shame.