Luxury hotel, 200 apartments and retail coming to site of former Ambassador Hote

Started by Steve, July 13, 2018, 05:52:36 PM

jaxnyc79

Is it possible to attach financial conditions to a demolition permit?  For example, until there's proof of the stability of funding sources to finance new construction, the developers can't demolish the old bank building?  It's actually not a bad looking building - kind of interesting.  I'd much rather a brand new multi-level building with new downtown residences, but it would be tragic for them to tear it down, let it sit vacant while they line up capital, and should things not work out, put yet another empty downtown lot on the market.

KenFSU

With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Surprisingly, the answer seems to be yes.

Just pulled the last five or six months of hotel data, and downtown occupancy rate is hovering between 75% and 80% monthly. That's some really strong growth, and in line with, or above, that 70-75% occupancy rate where you typically see a bunch of new hotel investment start to take place.

Typical daily demand for downtown hotels is around 1,779 rooms, and industry benchmark for profitability is around 55% occupancy rate.

Back of the napkin calculation, in a total vacuum where demand for rooms neither increases or decreases, the market could absorb roughly 860 additional rooms and everyone should be ok.

I tend to agree with you guys on the demo - though I don't think the building is designated as historic. I've got no problem with the demo if the apartment piece is a sure thing, but would hate to see that become a Phase II that the developer sits on for years while turning the space into a parking lot.

tufsu1

Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project

KenFSU

Quote from: tufsu1 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project


Steve

Quote from: tufsu1 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project

Well, I do think we can support them all for a few reasons:

- Loyal Marriott and IHG folks aren't staying downtown today....because they can't. That alone will help business travelers.
- The Hyatt's occupancy will dip for sure. Sorry, it's a 963 room hotel.
- In theory, the AC at the District would cater to some of the office and residential space at the district, creating new demand.
- Likely, one of them doesn't get built. In terms of likelihood of getting built, I'd throw it in this order:
   - Courtyard at the Trio
   - Indigo
   - Sister Cities Hotel
   - Ambassador
   - Berkman
   - AC at the District.

I'm guessing at least one of them doesn't happen.

jagsonville

Quote from: Steve on July 17, 2018, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project

Well, I do think we can support them all for a few reasons:

- Loyal Marriott and IHG folks aren't staying downtown today....because they can't. That alone will help business travelers.
- The Hyatt's occupancy will dip for sure. Sorry, it's a 963 room hotel.
- In theory, the AC at the District would cater to some of the office and residential space at the district, creating new demand.
- Likely, one of them doesn't get built. In terms of likelihood of getting built, I'd throw it in this order:
   - Courtyard at the Trio
   - Indigo
   - Sister Cities Hotel
   - Ambassador
   - Berkman
   - AC at the District.

I'm guessing at least one of them doesn't happen.

Sister cities is the least likely imo since VyStar's acquisition of the suntrust building. To add a little more good news it looks like someone bought the Berkman last night with plans for a hotel and garage.

Downtown Osprey

Quote from: Steve on July 17, 2018, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project

Well, I do think we can support them all for a few reasons:

- Loyal Marriott and IHG folks aren't staying downtown today....because they can't. That alone will help business travelers.
- The Hyatt's occupancy will dip for sure. Sorry, it's a 963 room hotel.
- In theory, the AC at the District would cater to some of the office and residential space at the district, creating new demand.
- Likely, one of them doesn't get built. In terms of likelihood of getting built, I'd throw it in this order:
   - Courtyard at the Trio
   - Indigo
   - Sister Cities Hotel
   - Ambassador
   - Berkman
   - AC at the District.

I'm guessing at least one of them doesn't happen.

I truly hope the Ambassador project works. It's too historical and beautiful of a building to just be sitting there vacant.

Steve

Quote from: jagsonville on July 17, 2018, 11:40:00 AM
Quote from: Steve on July 17, 2018, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
With all these new hotel announcements, my kneejerk reaction is, can the market support them all?

Assuming the Ambassador (100 Rooms), Hotel Indigo (90 rooms), Trio Marriott (131 Rooms), Sister Cities Plaza property (guessing here, ~100 rooms), the AC at the District (200 rooms), and even the Berkman II (~200 rooms) all happen, we're talking roughly 820 new hotel rooms downtown to fill.

Don't forget about the Brooklyn Marriott project

Well, I do think we can support them all for a few reasons:

- Loyal Marriott and IHG folks aren't staying downtown today....because they can't. That alone will help business travelers.
- The Hyatt's occupancy will dip for sure. Sorry, it's a 963 room hotel.
- In theory, the AC at the District would cater to some of the office and residential space at the district, creating new demand.
- Likely, one of them doesn't get built. In terms of likelihood of getting built, I'd throw it in this order:
   - Courtyard at the Trio
   - Indigo
   - Sister Cities Hotel
   - Ambassador
   - Berkman
   - AC at the District.

I'm guessing at least one of them doesn't happen.

Sister cities is the least likely imo since VyStar's acquisition of the suntrust building. To add a little more good news it looks like someone bought the Berkman last night with plans for a hotel and garage.

Does VyStar's acquisition kill the hotel? I don't think it did. They are separate parcels, though I'm not sure of the details (and has VyStar closed yet)?

downtownbrown

just reminds me of all the crap we took from the national media during the super bowl back when.  No hotels was a major theme.  I remember being in Chicago watching local media delight in mocking Jacksonville.  It was not a pleasant experience, mostly because they were right.  So national media, watch this space.  In five years we'll be saying "How do ya like me now?".

ProjectMaximus

Quote from: KenFSU on July 17, 2018, 10:40:38 AM


LOL! Well I do wonder how this affects airbnb. As a longtime owner/operator in the urban core, demand has been very high and far exceeded my expectations over the years. I am not too worried about sharing that demand with hotels, my real concern is whether the increased hotel presence increases their lobby efforts against airbnb. Hopefully not, as airbnb collects and pays its full share of the bed tax in Jacksonville.

That said, these hotels are all slated for the Northbank, where airbnb presence is lacking.

BridgeTroll

Quote from: downtownbrown on July 18, 2018, 08:07:31 AM
just reminds me of all the crap we took from the national media during the super bowl back when.  No hotels was a major theme.  I remember being in Chicago watching local media delight in mocking Jacksonville.  It was not a pleasant experience, mostly because they were right.  So national media, watch this space.  In five years we'll be saying "How do ya like me now?".

Hilarious... especially since Chicago has hosted... um... well zero Super Bowls...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

civil42806

The last time I was in the Ambassador was around 1994-1995 period, it was in sad sad shape then, but barely habitable.  Can't imagine what its like after 20 years or so.  Hope it was well mothballed.

heights unknown

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ACCESS MY ONLINE PERSONAL PAGE AT: https://www.instagram.com/garrybcoston/ or, access my Social Service national/world-wide page if you love supporting charities/social entities at: http://www.freshstartsocialservices.com and thank you!!!

heights unknown

Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on July 17, 2018, 08:03:05 AM
Quote from: heights unknown on July 16, 2018, 11:16:29 PM
Some feel the economy will soon crash into a depression type mode, similar to the 1930's or worse; Trump tinkering with trade won't help matters either. I hope THEY are wrong and I am wrong.

There is always a crash, and I was honestly caught completely off-guard when the housing bubble hit in 06-07 and being in the residential housing industry when it happened, I was hit doubly hard.

I've moved over to the commercial side of things since, and now I see commercial construction hitting levels that I've heard people refer to as 'like it was back in the day', so now I'm a bit more cautious.

The whole trade thing has been a good thing from my POV.  Many of the GCs have instructed us to use domestic product as our base price with the import as an alternate - a complete 180 from where I was not even a year ago.  The 20-40% increase in product hasn't slowed anything down - and that money can now recirculate in our economy. 

That's why I can't understand DIA & COJ caving to developers....  If the project will make money, they will develop.

Thanks NRNW; that post and news bit is encouraging. Thanks for the re-education; I am not into real estate, but have learned quite a bit in the last decade.
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ACCESS MY ONLINE PERSONAL PAGE AT: https://www.instagram.com/garrybcoston/ or, access my Social Service national/world-wide page if you love supporting charities/social entities at: http://www.freshstartsocialservices.com and thank you!!!

Steve

Quote from: heights unknown on July 18, 2018, 09:29:34 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 17, 2018, 08:01:56 AM
More info. They hope to be underway within the next 90 days. LaQuinta is one of the chains they're negotiating with:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/ambassador-hotel-downtown-was-sold-last-week
Super news. That's more like it.

Sort of....but I'll say again: La Quinta doesn't say Luxury hotel. Now, La Quinta is owned by Wyndham....perhaps they mean one of THEIR brands? Though, their brands aren't exactly at the top of the food chain (from Wikipedia, I think it's right):

AmericInn
Baymont Inn & Suites
Days Inn
Dazzler Hotels
Dolce Hotels and Resorts
Esplendor Boutique Hotels
Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham
Howard Johnson
La Quinta Inns & Suites
Microtel by Wyndham
Ramada Worldwide
Super 8
The Trademark Hotel Collection
Travelodge
TRYP by Wyndham
Viva Wyndham
Wingate By Wyndham
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Wyndham Garden Hotels
Wyndham Grand

They also mention Cambria, which is near the top of Choice hotels's pyramid. Better...but not amazing.

I wish them luck and if they do all of this then I'm fine with any brand really. This entire project doesn't add up. Further:

- They reference Integrity Hospitality. Take a look at their website: https://integrity-hospitality.com/. Does that scream established company to you? The "Powered by GoDadddy Website Builder" at the bottom really sells me.
- The first phase is to demolish the old Chamber of Commerce building. Why? If the residential is a later phase why spend the money to tear it down now?