Donald Trump inherits a divided republic

[finehoe]

Fear Donald Trump's populist victory
Populism is the politics of Them and Us. It is not new. What makes Mr Trump's win different is that he so explicitly sought to cast his opponents as illegitimate, contemptible, un-American or "disgusting"—and was confident that he would find an echo among his voters. He bet everything on a strategy of nostalgic nationalism, summed up in the slogan "Make America Great Again", because his hunch was that the country is home to an underestimated mass of voters who do not want to be part of any rainbow coalition. Many Americans have moved beyond distrusting politicians, parties or Washington. Talk to voters in this horrible year, and they dislike one another. Now that divided republic is Mr Trump's—if he can keep it.

The economic consequences will be dire
If Mr Trump manages to keep America out of an immediate economic crisis, the long-run effects of his presidency will prove most profound. It is difficult to imagine new trade deals being completed, and old ones might be reopened or scrapped. The outlook for global trade growth has darkened considerably. Moreover, Mr Trump may not be especially interested in international co-operation to limit tax avoidance or restrain the power of global banks. He has also promised to reduce regulation. It is easy to see him as a corporatist, willing to give lots of room for manoeuvre to powerful firms. That could be good for profits, while also encouraging economic nationalism around the world, undermining the long-run growth potential of the American economy, and reducing the bargaining power of workers.

A Trumpian Supreme Court
Mr Trump has pledged to appoint highly conservative justices who will uphold gun rights, walk back the 18-month-old decision allowing gays and lesbians to wed and overturn Roe v Wade, the 1973 ruling recognising a right to abortion. With Republicans in control of both houses of Congress and the White House, expect Mr Trump to have his way with the late Antonin Scalia's empty chair—one way or another.

http://www.economist.com/

[Adam White]

Fear Donald Trump's populist victory
Populism is the politics of Them and Us. It is not new. What makes Mr Trump's win different is that he so explicitly sought to cast his opponents as illegitimate, contemptible, un-American or "disgusting"—and was confident that he would find an echo among his voters.

http://www.economist.com/

To be fair, Clinton also called Trump's supporters - or half of them - a "basket of deplorables".

There appears to be a wave of populism sweeping the globe right now - even left wing populism has been seeing a bit of an upswing (the success of Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece and the overwhelming victories for the left in the Labour Party leadership contests in the UK).

I can see populism as having the potential to be a great thing - but it's hard to stomach it when it's packaged in such racist, jingoistic and inflammatory rhetoric.

[Adam White]

Fear Donald Trump's populist victory
Populism is the politics of Them and Us. It is not new. What makes Mr Trump's win different is that he so explicitly sought to cast his opponents as illegitimate, contemptible, un-American or "disgusting"—and was confident that he would find an echo among his voters.

http://www.economist.com/

To be fair, Clinton also called Trump's supporters - or half of them - a "basket of deplorables".

There appears to be a wave of populism sweeping the globe right now - even left wing populism has been seeing a bit of an upswing (the success of Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece and the overwhelming victories for the left in the Labour Party leadership contests in the UK).

I can see populism as having the potential to be a great thing - but it's hard to stomach it when it's packaged in such racist, jingoistic and inflammatory rhetoric.

Its not accurate to call it populism Adan.  Its more nativism.

Nativism and populism aren't mutually exclusive.

But there is definitely a strain of populism there. Appealing to voters who feel the system has left them behind - voters who see the rich get richer while they struggle to pay the mortgage and worry about layoffs. They may be deluded and think the problem is immigration (hint: it's not) - but their underlying concerns - many of them - are legitimate. The problem is that they lack what some on the unreconstructed left (and others) would call "class consciousness".

[Adam White]

Fear Donald Trump's populist victory
Populism is the politics of Them and Us. It is not new. What makes Mr Trump's win different is that he so explicitly sought to cast his opponents as illegitimate, contemptible, un-American or "disgusting"—and was confident that he would find an echo among his voters.

http://www.economist.com/

To be fair, Clinton also called Trump's supporters - or half of them - a "basket of deplorables".

There appears to be a wave of populism sweeping the globe right now - even left wing populism has been seeing a bit of an upswing (the success of Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece and the overwhelming victories for the left in the Labour Party leadership contests in the UK).

I can see populism as having the potential to be a great thing - but it's hard to stomach it when it's packaged in such racist, jingoistic and inflammatory rhetoric.

Its not accurate to call it populism Adan.  Its more nativism.

Nativism and populism aren't mutually exclusive.

But there is definitely a strain of populism there. Appealing to voters who feel the system has left them behind - voters who see the rich get richer while they struggle to pay the mortgage and worry about layoffs. They may be deluded and think the problem is immigration (hint: it's not) - but their underlying concerns - many of them - are legitimate. The problem is that they lack what some on the unreconstructed left (and others) would call "class consciousness".

neither the brexit voters nor the trump voters care about the policies....other than the ones allowing outsiders in, though.

And the US election was won primarily by white middle and upper middle class.  Not the ones 'left behind' by the economy

I think you're dead wrong about the Brexit voters. That was not solely about immigration. At all.

[Adam White]

You can parse it if you like----very few national votes are  'solely' based on anything.

But it was the wind behind its back.

I stick by what I said.

And you can tell the flotilla of fisherman who sailed up the Thames that their concerns weren't really about the Common Fisheries Policy. If you're ever over here, let me know. I can maybe arrange for you to meet my colleague Donna - she and her family all vote to Leave. I'll let you tell them how racist they actually are.

[Adam White]

You can parse it if you like----very few national votes are  'solely' based on anything.

But it was the wind behind its back.

I stick by what I said.

And you can tell the flotilla of fisherman who sailed up the Thames that their concerns weren't really about the Common Fisheries Policy. If you're ever over here, let me know. I can maybe arrange for you to meet my colleague Donna - she and her family all vote to Leave. I'll let you tell them how racist they actually are.

And there are perfectly non racist people who voted Trump because in their heads, he will save them from a country that has legalized abortion.  Doesnt cancel out the KKK enthusiasm for the candidate.  I'm sure your friends are very nice people.  But according to every brit I know, and every analysis of the vote, it was the rural and village vote, appalled by all the foreigners who provided the momentum for Brexit.

Well, I live in one of the three London Boroughs that voted Leave. And it's not a rural village, by any stretch.

My point is that the populism is real - but the target for the woes is misplaced onto foreigners, minorities, etc. The concerns many of the people have are legitimate - but they are blaming the wrong people or things.

Example: concerns about the impact of immigration on the UK. It doesn't matter that studies have shown that immigration is a net gain for the economy - or at worst, a draw. Or that studies have shown that immigrants use benefits at a far lower rate than UK citizens (and that most benefits cheats are British). People still believe that immigration is the problem. Can't afford a house? It's the immigrants!

Far easier than laying the blame for long lines at the doctor or waiting on a long list for a council house at the feet of immigrants instead of decades of public policy failures.

[Adam White]

which makes the voter nativist, pretty much by definition.

If even the facts won't convince someone that the immigrant isn't the problem, then there is an underlying nativism.

I disagree. I see nativism as a symptom, not the cause.

And as I said originally, nativism and populism aren't mutually exclusive.

[BridgeTroll]

Illegal immigration, immigration reform and border control are and have been issues for decades... for both the "natives" and the immigrants.

[BridgeTroll]

Illegal immigration, immigration reform and border control are and have been issues for decades... for both the "natives" and the immigrants.

Only for the people that didn't want them here.

Of course that is simply not true.  But you know that.

[BridgeTroll]

Me too... but not even sure what GOP means... Trump is not GOP... most GOP disavowed him.  I am a hesitant Republican but did not vote for Trump. Trump will have to form a odd coalition of GOP, Trumpers, and Dems to get stuff done... it will be interesting...

[BridgeTroll]

No doubt... we have two years to evaluate

[MusicMan]

Divided. Correct. As the final tally comes in it is interesting:

Clinton with a very small lead in the popular vote, 200,000 or so more than Trump with almost 120,000,000 votes cast.

She lost Michigan and it's 16 EV by 12,000 out of 4,500,000 votes cast.
She lost Wisconsin and it's 10 EV by 27,000 out of 2,800,000 votes cast.
She lost Pennsylvania and it's 20 EV by 70,000 out of 5,800,000 votes cast.

Had she won those 3 states she would be president elect. Bet the Dems wont take them for granted next time.