San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings

[Steve]

I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

And yet, about two dozen new grocery stores opened in Jax in the last two years.

Maybe it's not a 'Jax thing' and more like a 'site thing'?  Or maybe it's Shad Khan's fault?

Well there definately seems to be some sort of inverse relationship between the distance from City Hall and time to complete.  Suburban stuff in Jax seems to be conceived, propsed, and executed pretty fast.  Urban stuff - the exact opposite.

I mean, you're talking about the second longest proposed project in the urban Core to the shipyards. Kind of an anomaly.

The big difference I see is that when a developer proposes something downtown, in many cases they don't own the property, and the proposal becomes public because of things like design review. They then won't close on the property unless it's appeoved.

In the suburbs, the proposals are there, they just aren't usually known to the public.

[thelakelander]

I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.

I don't see this as Apples to Apples. When Gate bought the property is not relevant, IMO. There was no ability to put a grocery store on the Gate property until the infrastructure was in place.  There was the ability to build a grocery store in San Marco as soon as the zoning was changed to allow it.

Further still, the best Apple to Apple version is when the intentions to build were announced vs. when the store actually opened.

That's not apples to apples either. Up until a few months ago, the proposal wasn't a Publix. It was a Publix with a parking deck and 6 or 7 floors of condos/apartments on top of it. That's a product that still hasn't been built locally. Now the new proposal is a Publix and some retail shops, which is more comparable to what's in the burbs. The change essentially resets the clock because the proposal is totally different from what had been delayed over a decade.

[fieldafm]

I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.

I don't see this as Apples to Apples. When Gate bought the property is not relevant, IMO. There was no ability to put a grocery store on the Gate property until the infrastructure was in place.  There was the ability to build a grocery store in San Marco as soon as the zoning was changed to allow it.

Further still, the best Apple to Apple version is when the intentions to build were announced vs. when the store actually opened.

The 'apples to apples' comment was dripping with sarcasm 

[MusicMan]

One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.  I'm fairly certain the company behind the development, Regency, is not publicly owned, so there are no share holders asking questions and pushing for a resolution to the issue.

And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

[Captain Zissou]

I'm fairly certain the company behind the development, Regency, is not publicly owned, so there are no share holders asking questions and pushing for a resolution to the issue.

Thanks for clarifying that you have no idea what you're talking about. 3 seconds of research would show you that Regency Centers is publicly traded and has been for over 25 years.  Next time, try this: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Is+regency+centers+publicly+traded

The fact that it is publicly traded makes this more complicated.  The property was purchased at an expensive price, so the returns have to be in line with other assets throughout the company in order for management to proceed with the project.  Analysts are able to see the financials and a poorly conceived or executed project just for the sake of getting it done will affect the share price and lose money for thousands.  This isn't just Delores Weaver spending money on a passion project for the good of the neighborhood.  This is a publicly traded company, who is also a part of the S&P 500 Index, who needs to generate sufficient returns to maximize shareholder value.

[thelakelander]

One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.

What's not up for dispute is that a project combining a venture that includes "Publix with multiple levels of multifamily housing above it in San Marco" has been a failure. That project has been scrapped. Time will tell if a strip mall featuring a Publix will come to fruition on the property now.

And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

There's a lot more going on around town than the couple of projects that come with high fanfare and media coverage but don't make sense from a market rate perspective.  Vista Brooklyn is turning dirt, hundreds of units are going up on Philips, both projects on Hendricks around I-95 are moving forward, Broadstone is wrapping up, etc. Personally, I think there needs to be more effort targeting specific sites within the Northbank to cluster development more but the Shipyards, Berkman II and the District are necessarily indicative of the core's health.

I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

These guys don't owe the neighborhood anything. Some projects end up happening and others for a variety of reasons don't. That's consistent regardless of the neighborhood, city or metropolitan area.

[MusicMan]

Thank you for the update. It has not performed too well in that 10 year chart I looked at (compared to the S and P 500 Index).

It's still a failure, but you do put some perspective on it being a tiny piece of the big company.

Lake, yes some excellent progress going on.  I have developed a relationship with one of the Partners at Catalyst and they have moved very quickly, so I see good things.  And evidently the time frame for commercial developers like Regency are much longer than other types of investors. 

Just curious about your opinion, what did Regency pay for all the "Publix in San Marco" parcels and what could they sell it for today?

[jaxnyc79]

One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.

What's not up for dispute is that a project combining a venture that includes "Publix with multiple levels of multifamily housing above it in San Marco" has been a failure. That project has been scrapped. Time will tell if a strip mall featuring a Publix will come to fruition on the property now.

And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

There's a lot more going on around town than the couple of projects that come with high fanfare and media coverage but don't make sense from a market rate perspective.  Vista Brooklyn is turning dirt, hundreds of units are going up on Philips, both projects on Hendricks around I-95 are moving forward, Broadstone is wrapping up, etc. Personally, I think there needs to be more effort targeting specific sites within the Northbank to cluster development more but the Shipyards, Berkman II and the District are necessarily indicative of the core's health.

I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

These guys don't owe the neighborhood anything. Some projects end up happening and others for a variety of reasons don't. That's consistent regardless of the neighborhood, city or metropolitan area.

IMO, even though San Marco and the Southbank are associated with core/urban Jax, they just aren't all that dense (residentially speaking).  I do believe that will change in the next 10 years and should fuel a greater intensity of commercial/retail activity.  My mom travels from Deerwood to shop at a couple of the boutiques in San Marco Square, but she would never do that for a Publix (not destination shopping).  Given the Publix right down the road on University, and given higher ROI hurdles that real estate projects must clear to be justified post-crisis, I'd guess that someone figured the neighborhood lacked the residential density to justify any urgency in the project.  However, they're keeping the connection to the plot because as more infill projects come to fruition and the area achieves real urban density, a store will make sense.  Pure speculation here, but I think nothing gets done there for another 5 years, and then development eventually materializes as mid-rise, mixed-use once again.

[fieldafm]

Thank you for the update. It has not performed too well in that 10 year chart I looked at (compared to the S and P 500 Index).

Since its 2009 recession low, the Regency Centers stock has more than doubled in value and has paid out almost $30 in dividends. That's a return on investment of roughly 212% over a 9 year period.

I sure hope people don't take investment or real estate advice from you.

[MusicMan]

The S and P Index has (more than) tripled in that same time.

Why the fuck are you people so snarky on here. 

I've sold over $30,000,000 of real estate and my customers will tell you I did an excellent job for them.

You are not so keep your opinion to yourself, until I sell you something that doesn't work out.

Ask the guys at Catalyst Development Partners, who i sold a parcel too, and are extremely happy about it.

Ask the physicians who purchased the old Morton's Steakhouse, which I sold to them. They are incredibly happy about the way it has turned out.

You want to speak with some of my customers fine Personal Message me and I'll provide you with a list. Until then STFU.

[thelakelander]

Thank you for the update. It has not performed too well in that 10 year chart I looked at (compared to the S and P 500 Index).

It's still a failure, but you do put some perspective on it being a tiny piece of the big company.

Lake, yes some excellent progress going on.  I have developed a relationship with one of the Partners at Catalyst and they have moved very quickly, so I see good things.  And evidently the time frame for commercial developers like Regency are much longer than other types of investors. 

Just curious about your opinion, what did Regency pay for all the "Publix in San Marco" parcels and what could they sell it for today?

I don't know what the exact numbers are or why they'd sell it if they believe they can successfully put a strip mall on it. It appears the mixed-use concept was originally proposed by Sembler and Wachovia. That project, which spans multiple development partners over the last +10 years was scrapped last year. It's true, that's a failed project. The latest proposal by Regency is a Publix anchored retail center. Only the future will tell whether it happens or not and how long it takes to materialize.

[Tacachale]

One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.

What's not up for dispute is that a project combining a venture that includes "Publix with multiple levels of multifamily housing above it in San Marco" has been a failure. That project has been scrapped. Time will tell if a strip mall featuring a Publix will come to fruition on the property now.

And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

There's a lot more going on around town than the couple of projects that come with high fanfare and media coverage but don't make sense from a market rate perspective.  Vista Brooklyn is turning dirt, hundreds of units are going up on Philips, both projects on Hendricks around I-95 are moving forward, Broadstone is wrapping up, etc. Personally, I think there needs to be more effort targeting specific sites within the Northbank to cluster development more but the Shipyards, Berkman II and the District are necessarily indicative of the core's health.

I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

These guys don't owe the neighborhood anything. Some projects end up happening and others for a variety of reasons don't. That's consistent regardless of the neighborhood, city or metropolitan area.

IMO, even though San Marco and the Southbank are associated with core/urban Jax, they just aren't all that dense (residentially speaking).  I do believe that will change in the next 10 years and should fuel a greater intensity of commercial/retail activity.  My mom travels from Deerwood to shop at a couple of the boutiques in San Marco Square, but she would never do that for a Publix (not destination shopping).  Given the Publix right down the road on University, and given higher ROI hurdles that real estate projects must clear to be justified post-crisis, I'd guess that someone figured the neighborhood lacked the residential density to justify any urgency in the project.  However, they're keeping the connection to the plot because as more infill projects come to fruition and the area achieves real urban density, a store will make sense.  Pure speculation here, but I think nothing gets done there for another 5 years, and then development eventually materializes as mid-rise, mixed-use once again.

Not really what happened. The original plans were for mixed use developments. That's a much trickier proposition than a shopping center. If it was always just a shopping center, it would have been built years ago.

[Captain Zissou]

Regency is leading the sector and has put together solid YoY growth for the last 10 years, but due to the consistent stream of retailer bankruptcies, Shopping Center REITs have been down for the last 2-3 years due to long term uncertainty.  If anyone wants to look at the financials, I'm guessing that Regency and all others in the sector are currently valued at a lower multiple to earnings than in 2016.

[MEGATRON]

The S and P Index has (more than) tripled in that same time.

Why the fuck are you people so snarky on here. 

I've sold over $30,000,000 of real estate and my customers will tell you I did an excellent job for them.

You are not so keep your opinion to yourself, until I sell you something that doesn't work out.

Ask the guys at Catalyst Development Partners, who i sold a parcel too, and are extremely happy about it.

Ask the physicians who purchased the old Morton's Steakhouse, which I sold to them. They are incredibly happy about the way it has turned out.

You want to speak with some of my customers fine Personal Message me and I'll provide you with a list. Until then STFU.

Megatron: Yes, hello, is this Catalyst Development Partners?

Guy at Catalyst Development Partners:  Yes, it is.  How may I help you?

Megatron: Great.  Hey, I wanted to ask you about your experiences with MusicMan, the dude with the creepy avatar on the Jaxson message board, formerly known as the MetroJacksonville message board.  He identified you as a reference and said you were extremely happy with his services.

Guy at Catalyst Development Partners:  WTF.  This is weird.  How did our name come up?

Megatron: Well, you see, we were discussing Regency Realty and MusicMan said that Regency must suck because it has not outperformed the S&P.

Guy at Catalyst Development Partners: You mean, Regency Realty, one of the top three REITs in the country that has consistently outperformed similar REITs.

Megatron: Yes, that Regency.

Guy at Catalyst Development Partners: What an idiot.

[MusicMan]

MEGATOOL:

I don't know any of his customers nor have I spoken with any of them.

Guy at Catalyst:  Then you should talk with them first.  I had been trying to buy vacant land near our project in San Marco for 8 months.

Had ZERO luck.  Music Man cold called me and got it done.  I can't say enough about how happy I am he called me then did the work to

close the deal. In addition to the parcel we wanted, he got the Seller to throw in 2 extra vacant parcels for no additional money. He just

sold one for $50,000.