Transit use is down, blame the buses

[spuwho]

Seems the national use of transit is down this year. Analysts are quick to point out that falling gas prices are to blame. But looking at the data more closely, there is more to the story.  Transit by rail is still growing.

Per Wall Street Journal:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/06/low-gas-prices-drove-down-transit-use-so-why-cant-you-find-a-seat-on-the-train/

Low Gas Prices Drove Down Transit Use, So Why Can't You Find a Seat on the Train?

Transit ridership declined for the first time in five years during 2015, likely due to low gasoline prices, but subways and commuter trains were as crowded as ever.

How can this be? There are more free seats on the bus.

Americans took about 150 million fewer bus rides last year, but boarded trains in slightly higher numbers than in 2014.

Ridership of all modes of public transportation declined 1.3% last year from 2014, when transit use reached the highest level since 1958, according to new data from the American Public Transportation Association. The average price of a gallon of gasoline fell 27% in 2015 from a year earlier.

A breakdown of the 10.6 billion transit trips taken last year shows bus ridership fell 2.8%, and train usage, including rides on subways, light-rail systems and commuter trains, rose a slight 0.2% last year from 2014. The rail increase was the smallest gain since ridership declined in 2009. The figures do not include Amtrak ridership or intercity buses.



"We were all surprised how quickly people changed habits with low fuel prices," said Joseph Schwieterman, a professor at DePaul University who studies urban transportation economics. "Cheap gas encourages people to jump behind the wheel."

Use of public transit, which declined rapidly after World War II when Americans embraced the suburbs, cars and freeways, has experienced a revival in recent years. Ridership mostly grew for two decades outside of recessions, when massive job loss cut the number of commuters on the roads and rails.

Renewed interest from workers—and businesses—in locating inside large cities aided that growth. So did gasoline prices that were consistently above $3 a gallon. But fuel costs have turned lower in recent years. APTA estimates that for every 10% decrease in gasoline prices, there is a 1.8% decrease in transit ridership.​

Bus systems extend further into the suburbs and are common in smaller cities, where transit is often used for travel to work, but not for weekend errands and evenings out in the same way a New Yorker might hop on the subway at midnight.

The latest data suggests transit use is steady for those living in the core of large cities, many of whom have built their lives around close access to a metro stop.



Elsewhere in the country, where people are more likely have access to a car, gasoline prices play a bigger role in the decision to drive or ride.

Rail systems are also supported by other types of riders that typically don't use buses, including tourists and those using transit to get to sporting events, airports and other large draws, Dr. Schwieterman said.

Another detriment to transit overall was federal tax rules that for much of last year provided a bigger break for parking expenses than using mass transit.

Many metro areas followed a similar pattern to the nation as a whole.

New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority recorded a 0.5% increase in subway ridership, but a 2.5% decline in bus use. In Cleveland, use of a regional heavy rail system rose 3.8% last year, but bus ridership fell 5.6%. Ridership on the Dallas Area Rapid Transit system fell 2.7%, but use of its expanding light-rail network rose.

"Light rail continues to do well...and we're extending it further," DART spokesman Morgan Lyons said. The system is in the process of building longer platforms to accommodate larger trains and is pushing rail lines to neighborhoods further from downtown.

"Buses continue to lag, and gas prices are a component of that," Mr. Lyons said. Other factors are the shift in ridership from buses to trains and growth in the region outside of the reach of the DART network.

Still, national growth in rail usage last year was far weaker than the 3.2% gain in 2014. That could reflect a slowdown in urban population growth, possibly due to rising housing costs, and a still-steady interest in the suburbs.



For others, gas was a driving force.

Miles Palley, 30, lives in San Francisco and works in Palo Alto, Calif., as an attorney. Formerly, he would alternate between taking a CalTrain train to his office, which took an extra 20 minutes, or driving. With gas prices down, he almost never takes the train.

"In the last year it's become less and less painful to go the pump," he said. "Hopping in the car is the easier thing to do."

[Ocklawaha]

It's all because those cities don't have 'The First Coast Flyer.' Everyone knows; "The people HATE rail, they want more buses!" (Mike Miller - JTA Information officer at a public hearing promoting BRT over rail). "Rail is not a good choice for Jacksonville," (Former JTA director Michael Blaylock) in a statement about how a city built on a rail system is now magically not good for rail. Or Nathan Ford, Director of the Jacksonville Transportation Authority who rubber stamped the previous statement saying 'Rail might not be the best fit for Jacksonville,' again from the city that once had the State's largest rail transit system and that was built on the back of it's lines. Privately or Publicly, their statements are pure HOGWASH!

Interestingly BOTH, Nat Ford with the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency and Michael Blaylock with the Jacksonville Transportation Authority served on the board of the 'Transit Cooperative Research Program TCRP,' National Academies, Transportation Research Board 2009 "Advisors to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine"

God know's we have needed the new bus schedules for decades, we've needed the First Coast Flyer for a half century, but on some routes we've needed a Streetcar or elevated Streetcar with trackage built like Light-Rail, out of the traffic lanes, and in other locations we need at least a minimal Commuter Rail service.

Only in Jacksonville has the word 'Authority' has taken on a tongue and cheek, wink, wink, smile  connotation. Swimming upstream, we continue to loudly deny national numbers or even trends because 'The Authority' told us so.

[spuwho]

I thought the article highlighted an interesting point, that bus loading variability is directly related to fuel pricing. Mostly because bus clients either dont have an alternate form of mobility (LIke a car), or they are budget sensitive to the cost of a car.

Whereas, rail, has little or no sensitivity to fuel prices as it relates to load factors. This means that people "choose" rail with intent, people choose busing as an alternative.

So when gas prices rise, bus use increases. When fuel prices drop, so does bus use.

To this day (in my mind) the main reason JTA like buses is not just because of population density, it is trying to work with COJ's haphazard land use policies.

Why would JTA want to commit millions to fixed transit when COJ falls over to the whims of a developer?

It's pretty simple, they are trying to maintain flexibility in a world of shifting sand of land use.