What if Jacksonville suddenly woke up?

[thelakelander]

lol.  except of course that a grass roots movement did exactly that in Seattle.

Stop being such a pessimist, lake.

The pessimism on the part of the people who need to be optimists are the literal reason why jville has moved so slowly forward.

Some tasks just seem impossible, until you do them.

There may be some confusion. I'm a realist, not a pessimist. There's a difference in scales between various communities and I'm not even sure it's in Jax's best interest to strive to become significantly larger than what it is today. Being the biggest on the block doesn't always equal having a higher quality-of-life. I'm an advocate of quality, sustainable growth.  However, I don't care if Jax never catches Seattle, Atlanta, Miami, etc. in population or built density.

every pessimist describes themselves this way.   And the essay isn't about becoming denser, but greater.  Greatness is attainable at any size, I've found.

My comments to the article were made in 2008. I like the article. However, my first post today was a response to MMR's comment. The rest today have been in response to a few post disagreeing with them.

[Shirt Tail Johnson]

lol.  except of course that a grass roots movement did exactly that in Seattle.

Stop being such a pessimist, lake.

The pessimism on the part of the people who need to be optimists are the literal reason why jville has moved so slowly forward.

Some tasks just seem impossible, until you do them.

There may be some confusion. I'm a realist, not a pessimist. There's a difference in scales between various communities and I'm not even sure it's in Jax's best interest to strive to become significantly larger than what it is today. Being the biggest on the block doesn't always equal having a higher quality-of-life. I'm an advocate of quality, sustainable growth.  However, I don't care if Jax never catches Seattle, Atlanta, Miami, etc. in population or built density.

every pessimist describes themselves this way.   And the essay isn't about becoming denser, but greater.  Greatness is attainable at any size, I've found.

Glad to see you're an optimist.  The difference between a pessimist and an optimist is a little thing called reality.  I'm a realist and Jax will never be like a Seattle.

[thelakelander]

Ive met lots of 'realists' over the years.  Usually to tell me that Five Points would always be a ghetto, that Springfield would never be anything more than a crime district, that San Marco would never be able to get rid of the punk rock criminals, that Jacksonville would always be controlled by racists, that gay people would never be accepted much less obtain legal marriage, that the internet was a 'fad', and that the United States would be bombed out of existence by soviets, black power gangs, the chinese, terrorists...

Five Points is like two or three blocks. Apples and oranges, as far as the Seattle comments are concerned. Jax isn't gaining a couple million people pretty soon or doing a 180 degree cultural flip.

Political 'realists' let me know, condescendingly, that the City would never be ready for an 'arab' mayor, a black sheriff, a woman City Council President, or a black mayor.  Much less a black President of the United States.

None of this will make Jax consume a few extra million people or completely copy Seattle's culture anytime soon. Different animals and scale.

Cultural 'Realists' let me know that I couldn't open up experimental dinner theatre, we couldn't perform any kind of adult content, that Lee Harvey would get my place closed down if I showed his work, that feminist dance performances would get me blackballed.  Also that cooperating with african american promoters, actors, performers, musicians, writers, poets and people would bring Springfield 'down'. Then they told me that realistically, if they didn't cut their own budgets for arts and culture, that the 'baptists' would cut them out altogether.  Weirdly, the performers from Springfield thrived.  The ones backed by the 'realists' didn't.

This is completely irrelevant to the discussion that's taken place over the last page or two today.  There's a lot of things we can do to improve Jacksonville. However, there's nothing wrong with being real and understanding there will be certain areas of urbanism where we'll always be at an advantage or disadvantage when directly compared to other places.

[thelakelander]

^My guess is that there wouldn't be as many about "Jax will never be...name city" if they were never mentioned in an unapplicable manner.

[thelakelander]

Probably time to do a 2016 version, incorporating things we've learned and that have happened over the last 8 years. Since the establishment of MJ, I know that I've grown to accept Jax as second tier regional city. Like Portland, Salt Lake City and Greenville, there's things we can do to improve our quality-of-life but my days of directly comparing Jax to alpha cities are over.

Basically, this one post in response to another person's view about Jax. It doesn't even conflict with the theme of the original article. Just recognizes what Jax is (realist), embraces it (realist) and moves on to improve from there (realist). With that said, we are off point now and I have work to do (real realist) so I'm done today.

[RattlerGator]

Ennis, I tend to agree with most everything you wrote in the recent back and forth but . . . you lose me here: "IMO, our true peers are places like Memphis, Louisville, Richmond, etc."

Ummmmmm . . . hell no. In my honest opinion, people who view Jacksonville this way invariably miss the essence of this city and fail to comprehend our unique intersection of the Sunbelt South with Florida. People who view Jax in this Memphis, Louisville, Richmond way more often than not insisted back in the day we were outrageously naive and, in fact, stupid for thinking we could land an NFL franchise. My experience says that people who casually lump us with Memphis, Louisville and Richmond may insist they appreciate the distinctiveness of our beach, our port, and our river -- but they don't. These people tend to say North Florida is really South Georgia when, in fact, it (if anything) is exactly the opposite. And yes, that mindset does make a difference. It realizes that Florida is the South and is comfortable with this fact, recognizing the incredibly diverse history of the Southland -- from Texas and Oklahoma all the way over to Maryland and Delaware.

No, our true peers aren't Memphis, Louisville and Richmond. Those are old towns and their growth records don't match us at all.

Our true peers in my honest opinion are Tampa, Orlando and Virginia Beach–Norfolk–Newport News, VA. We're smaller than all of them in population but we're also better than all of them in some ways, worse in others, but -- and this matters -- the only one of the four with a unified metropolitan area with only one clearly acknowledged traditional downtown. All of those places are A.O.K. with me but I like Jax best.

Now, to my antagonist Stephen: if only the bitch-and-moan crowd could continue embracing constructive criticism but ditch the craziness that insists on extremely forced comparisons with places like Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, Atlanta, or New York -- places the overwhelming majority of area residents have no interest in emulating (I tend to agree with you, Murder_me_Rachel) at all. I just spent two weeks, off and on, in the San Francisco Bay Area. Sweet Jesus! Hell no, hell no, hell no.

We have something really good in Northeast Florida. Something really manageable. When Shad Khan gets that amphitheater and that Flex Field done, and the businesses (thank you, Farley Grainger / Iconic Real Estate Investments / Doro Fixtures buildings, etc.) fill-in that area to make it a true entertainment district our downtown conversations are going to radically change.

Say it with me, Stephen: #InShadWeTrust !!!

[thelakelander]

2015 MSA and 2010 urban area population numbers of select cities:

2015 Metropolitan Area Population

2,974,225 - Tampa (18)
2,387,138 - Orlando (24)
1,830,345 - Nashville (36)
1,724,876 - Norfolk (37)
1,613,070 - Providence (38)
1,575,747 - Milwaukee (39)
1,449,481 - Jacksonville (40)
1,358,452 - Oklahoma City (41)
1,344,127 - Memphis (42)
1,278,413 - Louisville (43)
1,273,568 - Raleigh (44)
1,271,334 - Richmond (45)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas


2010 Urban Area Population

2,441,770 - Tampa (17)
1,510,516 - Orlando (32)
1,439,666 - Norfolk (34)

1,190,956 - Providence (39)
1,065,219 - Jacksonville (40)
1,060,061 - Memphis (41)
1,021,243 - Salt Lake City (42)
  972,546 - Louisville (43)
  969,587 - Nashville (44)
  953,556 - Richmond (45)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

No, our true peers aren't Memphis, Louisville and Richmond. Those are old towns and their growth records don't match us at all.

We're an old town with slow growth.  That slow growth is just masked by booming suburban growth in St. Johns and Clay Counties. Nevertheless, in terms of scale, they are all in Jax's ballpark, moreso than Tampa.

Our true peers in my honest opinion are Tampa, Orlando and Virginia Beach–Norfolk–Newport News, VA. We're smaller than all of them in population but we're also better than all of them in some ways, worse in others, but -- and this matters -- the only one of the four with a unified metropolitan area with only one clearly acknowledged traditional downtown. All of those places are A.O.K. with me but I like Jax best.

"Better" is subjective. I prefer to stick with data. Tampa and Orlando are significantly larger. They are peers in some areas but in terms of scale they are both significantly larger urban areas. I'll give you Virginia Beach-Norfolk. Although larger (but growing much slower), from the Navy and port to shipbuilding, having a downtown festival marketplace and consolidated cities, there are a ton of similarities with Jax's MSA.

Looking at the list, a few cities worth mentioning are Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Nashville and Salt Lake City. Despite being second tier regional cities like Jax, over the last 20 years they've found a way to embrace, build on and promote their quirks, culture and history. I see no reason why Jax can't embrace its own self to the betterment of its future.

[jaxjags]

Interesting that I see thelakelander's analysis above and the immediately see the post about REX/Amazon thread below:

Amazon recently expanded the cities where they're offering same-day delivery. Looking over the list, I could see Jacksonville fitting into the next round where it's available.

Quote

FREE Same-Day Delivery is now in Charlotte, Cincinnati, Fresno, Louisville, Milwaukee, Nashville, Central New Jersey, Raleigh, Richmond, Sacramento, Stockton, and Tucson.


Actually I think all agree size can help with the level of companies, services, restaurants, housing, etc. But it doesn't necessarily make it a better place to live. I would never want to live in Orlando (tourist based economy), Norfolk ( much heavier Navy than JAX) or Atlanta (just to crowded for me and I have lived there). Jax is the right "size" for me, has plenty to offer and do. We need to embrace what we have and find someone who can lead a vision, especially in the core.

[RattlerGator]

Stephen, I didn't want to read the damn article and, luckily, you can't make me although your totalitarian instinct will look for a way, I'm sure. What I obviously was responding to (again, not interested in your article -- sorry) was the interesting and curious back and forth you had with Ennis. That's what I was responding to.

If you dropped the supremacist approach, you might have figured that out.

And Ennis, I'll meet your confidence with that of my own -- think three times before you dismiss what I'm writing on this board. Clearly, you're a slave to the numbers. Okay. You miss the essence of Jacksonville if you're a slave to numbers and it leads you to mistakenly group us with a list of cities we obviously shouldn't be grouped with. I say, damn the numbers! Being a slave to the numbers is an incredibly narrow (and lazy, in my estimation) way to consider an urban area. However, just using the numbers, look at the progression of MSA ranking from 1980 for these presumptive peers:

Jax: 1980, 50th; 1990, 47th; 2000, 45th; 2015, 40th -- up 10 spots

Lou: 1980, 38th; 1990, 43rd; 2000, 49th; 2015, 43rd -- up 5 spots

Mem: 1980, 40th; 1990, 41st; 2000, 43rd; 2015, 42nd -- up 2 spots

Ric: 1980, 48th; 1990, 49th; 2000, 46th; 2015, 45th -- up 3 spots

Hmmmmmmmmm.

And Ennis, you think these are our peers? Those are all old-line Southern cities that were well established before Jacksonville was founded. Among the group, we're the only one with a straight line of population growth over the last 35 years -- and our best growth is clearly staring us in the face right now. Most importantly, they don't have our beach nor our river nor our proximity to the vacation capitals of America. Think again, my man.

I have quite a bit of experience with my fellow Floridians who have incredible Central Florida bias and, even worse, South Florida bias. It blinds them in remarkable ways and they have NEVER known how to honestly and accurately look at this city. They ALWAYS want us to apologize for our uniqueness. That's not gonna happen.

Take another look at the city in which you reside, Ennis. It isn't the one you think you live in but you've certainly got a much better handle on reality than the Orange-Park-obsessed stephendare.

Later, Gators.

[thelakelander]

^Throw those same numbers up for Tampa, Orlando and others you believe are peers and let's see how they compare. It should be interesting from a certain perspective.

Oh, and I'm fine with Jax. It's a second tier regional city, in terms of size and scale, but that's not a slight or negative thing.

[thelakelander]

I actually prefer urban area numbers. They tend to give you a good idea of the scale, density and urban context of a community. Knowing a community's true size helps highlight areas where good and bad examples in select cases can be more applicable than others.

[thelakelander]

Yes. I'm getting ready to go into a meeting but I provided a link explaining both in response to your Seattle CSA comment yesterday.

[thelakelander]

So these numbers are great to be aware of, but they aren't directly important to a city's ability to grow, plan, develop or distinguish itself.

I think you've missed the entire point I've been trying to make about urban area and MSA numbers (I don't even use CSAs). In the event that one is going to use another community as an example of what some other place should do, this is where understanding some basic numbers can help a city's ability to grow, plan, develop or distinguish itself.

I actually prefer urban area numbers. They tend to give you a good idea of the scale, density and urban context of a community. Knowing a community's true size helps highlight areas where good and bad examples in select cases can be more applicable than others.

This earlier comment basically sums it up. Let's use the planning and implementation of a fixed mass transit line as an example.  Randomly tossing out doing what Seattle, San Francisco or Chicago has invested in may not applicable due to the shear scale and urban core density of those communities, compared to Jax.  However, a city closer in scale, density, etc. such as Salt Lake City or Charlotte, may present you with a more applicable and cost effective example of ultimate implementation.  I think a few of you don't like when I say that Jax is a second tier regional city or not as important as some would like and think it should be.  In the grand scheme of things, we're pretty insignificant. But so what. Scale isn't an indicator of quality-of-life or a claim that "bigger is better". Both Tijuana and Juárez are more than twice the size and density of Jax. However, I doubt anyone here is willing to make an argument that their quality-of-life is better.

[finehoe]

This is similar to a discussion Lake and I had concerning what population numbers actually tell us here:  http://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,24792.0.html

[thelakelander]

Numbers will always play some sort of role. You'll just be viewed by some other budding community as an example of "what-not-to-do".