Year in Space - 2016

[spuwho]

Here is what we can expect in spaceflight in 2016.

Per Aviation Week:

http://aviationweek.com/space/look-ahead-another-ambitious-year-space

Human-spaceflight managers will spend a lot of time in 2016 winnowing what promises to be a huge pile of applications for NASA's next astronaut class. It is remotely possible that at least one of the youngest candidates they select to fly in space will walk in the dim sunlight of Mars someday, or at least look down on the planet from one of its moons.

The U.S. space agency plans to work well into 2017 finding the best of the best for the job. Going to Mars will be "the biggest thing human beings have ever done," in the words of Administrator Charles Bolden, and NASA wants to get it right. The work to reach Mars is already underway, and the pace of preparation will accelerate in 2016.

Astronaut Scott Kelly and Cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko are scheduled to land in March after almost a full year in space, the first in what is likely to be a series of long-duration stays on the International Space Station (ISS) as scientists and engineers use the orbiting outpost as a unique testbed for a 1,000-day mission to Mars.

Also scheduled for the ISS in 2016 is deployment of a small expandable habitat developed by Bigelow Aerospace, a private-sector pioneer in what is sometimes called inflatable technology. The Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) will generate data on how well its synthetic-fiber walls can shield against high-velocity micrometeoroids and debris, and evaluate projections that its internal radiation environment will be more benign because the material doesn't generate secondary particles as does aluminum.

The work will advance NASA's push to the Mars-mission "proving ground" near the Moon, where it plans to put lessons learned on the ISS to the test with humans in an environment where the safety of Earth is days rather than hours away. By summer, specialists at Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans expect to be building the first heavy-lift Space Launch System (SLS) main stage with the largest friction-stir-welding tool ever built. Engineers at nearby Stennis Space Center will continue testing the surplus RS-25 space shuttle main engines slated to push an SLS off the pad on the first exploration mission (EM-1), an unmanned trip around the Moon with an instrumented Orion crew capsule.

Work also will begin in earnest on a more capable Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) for the second SLS mission (EM-2) with a crew in the Orion. Congress has given NASA a 2018 deadline for a small prototype habitation module to extend the time Orion crews can spend in cislunar space, using the 10-metric-ton capability the EUS will add to SLS as early as the EM-2 mission.

China plans to launch a second Tiangong mini space station in 2016 for testing with a planned cargo vehicle based on its manned Shenzhou, but it appears the only humans launched to space in 2016 will fly on Russia's Soyuz (see photo). Boeing and SpaceX will continue to develop the commercial crew vehicles that will fly to the ISS along with Soyuz as early as 2018, and the four NASA astronauts picked in 2015 for early missions on those vehicles will train to be ready. NASA also plans to select one or more contractors to continue commercial cargo deliveries to the station after the Orbital ATK and SpaceX contracts are done.

SpaceX just undertook a mission to loft 11 satellites, finishing it with a first-ever return and landing of the Falcon 9 first stage. Orbital ATK plans to return Antares to flight for ISS resupply in 2016 following a failure in 2014. It remains to be seen if any of the suborbital human vehicles in development by Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace will fly in 2016.

There will be some interesting developments in robotic space exploration in 2016, too. In March, about the time that Kelly and Kornienko wrap up their year in space, NASA is set to launch its InSight Mars lander (providing a malfunctioning European sensor can be repaired in time). The probe will study the planet's seismology and heat flow after it lands in September, aiming to gather information that can be applied to the other rocky planets, as well.

Using the same planetary launch window, the European Space Agency's ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter is scheduled for a March 14 launch on a Russian Proton to look for signatures of life in the red planet's atmosphere and send down a small lander to practice entry, descent and touchdown for the follow-on ExoMars mission.

Deeper into the Solar System, the solar-powered Juno spacecraft is scheduled to enter polar orbit around Jupiter on July 4. With three 29-ft.-long solar arrays that give it the appearance of a windmill, Juno will study the gas giant's atmosphere, try to determine the mass of its core, map its magnetic field and do other research.

In September, NASA plans to launch its Osiris-Rex mission, a sample-return mission to the Earth-crossing asteroid Bennu, that is scheduled to land there in 2019 and return to Earth in 2023. A B-type asteroid measuring 500 meters (1,640 ft.) across, Bennu passes close to Earth every six years and has what scientists consider a "high probability" of colliding with our planet in 2182. It was selected as a sample-return target because of its primitive composition, of great interest to planetary science, and the fact that it is never too early to start preparing for a potential disaster.