High speed rail project has eye on Jacksonville

[Tacachale]

^CSX?

[Ocklawaha]

The All Aboard Florida scam is a CSX boondoggle to pay for track improvements.  CSX has sucked in public transit enthusiasts to support this mess.  Can you imagine a train blasting through a small Florida town going 125 mph?  How many people will get killed when one of these 125 mph trains goes off the track or hits a car?  Train accidents are frequent, running trains over existing crossings at 125 mph will basically create a hazard unlike anything we have known. 

Prediction - After the first horrific crash and the lawyers completely take All Aboard Florida to the cleaners, the taxpayers will be on the hook for all of the track improvement bonds.  The only folks making money on this deal is CSX and the lawyers suing All Aboard Florida.  Losers?  The taxpayers.

There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

This might be the most ill informed post we've ever had on MJ. Shall we even consider it serious?

AAF parent FEC RY/Fortress/FECI are fierce competitors of CSX, how anyone can think they are related is news to me.
Trains won't be running at 125 mph through any town. Railroads are governed and their speeds are set by city, county, state and federal law. The 125mph stretch will be between Orlando and Cocoa where there is absolutely nothing. In the future south of St. Augustine is good for 90 mph to north of Ormond Beach. This is about as fast as they ran these trains in 1938! Without digital signaling assistance.

ZERO tax dollars are being invested in this. The loans will normally go through the RRRR Act which simply allows railroads to borrow at lower fixed rates as it is a hugely $$ intense business (meaning at a market you might invest $100 and gross $140. In railroading you'd invest $100 and be damn lucky to see $105 returned.

Frequent accidents? Horrific accidents? Where? When? Do you realize American railroads are among the very safest transportation modes in the entire world? Even these 'horrific' accidents, where a train jumps the track and flys into a ditch usually have less then a dozen fatalities. (If any).. Try that with a 747.

Nobody uses Amtrak? Try and get a reservation to New York or Miami. Good luck with that. SOLD OUT, typically through most of the year.

I tried to answer your concerns honestly, but I can only imagine a response. For the record I am a well published railroad author, historian and former planner for the National Railroads in Colombia. Lakelander is a well known urban and transportation planner and another MJ publisher is a CSX executive. I believe our expertise trumps rumors and hysteria.

[jaxjaguar]

So how much do we predict a ticket to cost to get to Jax from any of the connected cities? I'm seriously doubting the sustainability of this considering most of the train ticket prices I've looked at exceed airline prices AND you have to tack on HOURS to the travel time. As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

[thelakelander]

Probably too far down the line to be contemplating ticket costs but they expect a large segment of riders on the Orland/Miami project will be tourist. Those used to getting around communities with public transit won't have problems getting to major destinations in those cities. Plus, if they want to rent a car, once they arrive (like many do with air travel), that option will be available as well.

[mtraininjax]

I agree with OCK on the demand on Amtrak, its damn hard to get a cabin on the trains going North and South from Jax. Still.....

splitting the $20,000 cost of hiring a consultant to provide a master plan for LaVilla

To me this means this is still a ways off for implementation. Build on what we have now, and plan to have a better tomorrow, but don't go out thinking we will have high speed in jax, just yet, a long ways off.

[RattlerGator]

While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

[Steve]

There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

I'm not going to go by train to Miami from Jacksonville because I don't want to go through Orlando and Winter Haven to do it. Because it goes through there, it's a 9 hour train. That's because no passenger service is offered on the FEC lines currently.

Make no mistake - I'd love to see this service. I could only dream of a rail system in the US that is even comparable to the network that SNCF has in France.

For the more rail-savvy folks - if this service were to be launched to Jacksonville (opening up the FEC to passengers), do you see Amtrak utilizing the FEC line? For example, running the Silver Star to Miami, then having the Silver Meteor end in Tampa permanently?

[thelakelander]

^Yes. I suspect you'll see an Amtrak line down the FEC at some point, if some entity like AAF helps improve the capacity between Jax and Cocoa. Also, I don't know what a ticket would cost to ride the entire thing but I suspect there could be regional value in having the option of a one stop rail ride between....say....DT Jax and St. Augustine or DT Miami and DT Fort Lauderdale.

[ProjectMaximus]

So how much do we predict a ticket to cost to get to Jax from any of the connected cities? I'm seriously doubting the sustainability of this considering most of the train ticket prices I've looked at exceed airline prices AND you have to tack on HOURS to the travel time. As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

I think there are multiple angles here, and they aren't expecting to pull a majority of people out of cars/airplanes. It's just another option, one that is better for some folks. I can tell you personally there is plenty of use to it for me and my family as our relatives don't need a car when they visit us here and we never need one when we are down in Miami.

Probably too far down the line to be contemplating ticket costs but they expect a large segment of riders on the Orland/Miami project will be tourist. Those used to getting around communities with public transit won't have problems getting to major destinations in those cities. Plus, if they want to rent a car, once they arrive (like many do with air travel), that option will be available as well.

I could also see it serving a more regional role...taking passengers from intermediary cities. Not entirely reliant on Jax-Miami, Orl-Miami passengers.

While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

Yeah, I'm not sure I would go that far. It's more like they don't rely on ticket sales for profit. But they still want the volume of passengers to make their real estate worthwhile hubs of vibrancy. I can tell you Hong Kong's MRT stations wouldn't be worth so much if it weren't for the millions of riders passing through each day.

[spuwho]

While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

RattlerGator,

This issue/subject has been discussed before on MJ.

The problem many consultants and others have had when looking at AAF is they look strictly at the cost to build and compare that directly with the number of passengers times ticket fare to calculate revenue.

In this case there is more to the revenue model than pure fares.

Because AAF is just one entity of many inside a corporate umbrella than can take advantage of what will be built.

Flagler Development will be building thousands of square feet of Class A space over Miami Central Station. Those air rights are not free, so basically a revenue source will be in office rents.

Parallel Infrastructure is another entity that leases fiber access along ROW's to cell carriers and can lease ROW cell tower space.  This also facilitates wifi connection revenue on AAF.

Flagler Development will also develop high density transit oriented development at (condos, apartments) key stations along the ROW. Not only does this present a more permanent passenger opportunity, the access increases property values.

The ROW from Cocoa to Orlando will be owned by AAF, but freight trackage rights will be paid for by FEC. The freight volume between Port Canaveral and Orlando has been on a steady pattern of growth. Again more revenue for AAF.

This doesnt include other sources like express package carriage, passenger sales via all inclusive  "package travel deals" which are very popular in Europe.

Leasing retail space in the new stations, (except Orlando), Florida Resident discounts, military travel privs, college student specials, combo deals with cruise lines, combo deals with tribal casinos, all are tools for driving revenue.

Does this help?

[Ocklawaha]

BUSINESS MODEL:
Excellent job explaining the many other revenue streams in this story spuwho, it's just a damn shame that we can't get the city and/or JTA/FDOT to see the amazing possibilities of combining the JRTC and RAIL in the heart of downtown. Of course I'm not talking about a rail platform and two lousy Amtrak trains daily, the city should be driving expanded Amtrak, commuter rail, streetcar/rapid streetcar or light-rail in addition to the 'almost basic BRT.' 

MAG-LEV AND AUTOPIA:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around some of this:

As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

The same could be said for New Yorkers, Los Angeleno's, San Franciscan's and Chicagoans, the difference is they have the rail option and we don't. So naturally we 'love our cars but consider the most autocentric population on earth, Los Angeles, is bailing out of their cars and building all forms of rail just as fast as they can.

That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

Why would any corporation want to abandon a proven technology that can be purchased off-the-shelf for a Mag-Lev system that at this point is still rather Pie-In-The-Sky. Mag-Lev uses expensive proprietary technologies that are 100% incompatible with the existing rail network. A heavy investment in Mag-Lev between JAX and Orlando, helps only those on the JAX - Orlando route, a heavy investment in conventional HrSR between JAX and Orlando boosts the strength and interchangeability of the whole states rail network. Mag-Lev from downtown to the airport might attract a few more passengers but it will cost a minimum of 60% more.

WHAT IS AND WHAT ISN'T PLANNED:
The official State Passenger Rail Plan calls for nothing more then passenger service on the FEC RY and a new connection from Cocoa to Orlando and hence on to Tampa.

The plan is typically short sighted, it misses the long standing route from:

Jacksonville-Waldo-Ocala-Lakeland-Tampa

Which population wise is one of the fastest growth area's in the state and transportation wise, the least served. 4-5 flights out of Gainesville, and 4 Greyhound schedules between Jax and Tampa via Ocala or Gainesville.

This plan also eliminates Palatka, Deland, Winter Park, Orlando (downtown) as well as Winter Haven, West Lake Wales, Sebring, Okeechobee.

MY CRYSTAL BALL:
My thinking is we WILL see Amtrak on the FEC RY serving as a more local service with stops in St. Augustine, Bunnell, Daytona, Titusville, Cocoa Rockledge etc. while the HrSR trains of Brightline will pretty much run through from Jax to Cocoa with no more then one or two intermediate stops. If Brightline and Amtrak serve a common Cocoa stop (and there is no reason they wouldn't) then Brightline might not add any intermediate stops on it's routes, as local passengers could transfer to Amtrak at Jax, Cocoa, West Palm.

I expect to see AAF/Flagler/Brightline to purchase or lease the dirt and develop the hell out of the JRTC area. I actually expect to see something like the Peninsular/Strand/Vu with a mixed use lower floor area and parking garages.

SPOILER:
However, never underestimate the ability of JTA/FDOT to completely screw the pooch on this whole deal, in which case the Brightline Terminal could end up at the Avenues Walk or even San Marco. Amtrak could stay where it is and Greyhound could end up at Lem Turner and I-295. The whole time they'll be telling the press how we lead the nation in BRT... even if it is 'Phantom BRT.'

OUR TRUMP CARD:
Currently there is some question if AAF/Brightline can sell it's bonds or sell them in time to kick off the Orlando service as planned, keep in mind the Orlando route requires an entirely new railroad line to be built. It is entirely possible that Phase 2 (Jacksonville) could leapfrog Phase 1 (Orlando) and open first as the track from Jacksonville to Miami is already in place.

[Brian_Tampa]

^^ Ocklawaha
I don't see the lack of a bond sale as a barrier to completing the project to Orlando. AAF has always said that they could build it without either PAB or RRIF funding. It will, however, be $300-400M more expensive according to AAF to not use those financing methods. AAF will not start on any other expansion until the Miami-Orlando line is running and proven succesful.  That is what I've been told by them over the past several years when I would ask.

Actually Phase 2 is the WPB to Orlando section.  I have not been told by anyone that there is another phase after that.  I give the expansion time frame at least until 2020 before any decision is made.

The same FDOT passenger rail report you mention also shows trip estimates between the major population centers in the state. Granted the numbers are from 2006, but they showed that intercity trips between Jacksonville and Orlando/South Florida were no where near the numbers for Tampa to Orlando/South Florida. I wouldn't count on Jacksonville being the next expansion route necessarily. AAF does seem to be following that same report fairly closely.

I've also been told that FDOT is preserving the rail envelop in the median along I4 between Tampa and Orlando along the same route that HSR was going to use. So there are plans being made just for a future expansion of passenger rail service to Tampa.

[thelakelander]

I also don't see AAF coming to Jax before Orlando. I also agree that a Tampa to Orlando line would have higher ridership than one to Jax. However,  this is a project that's a lot more than passenger rail based. Just about every other potential revenue stream is eliminated using I-4 and other property not in a FEC related company's control. Then someone has to fund 80 miles of new infrastructure. Without massive public incentives and subsidies it's hard to see a Tampa link materializing.

[Brian_Tampa]

I also don't see AAF coming to Jax before Orlando. I also agree that a Tampa to Orlando line would have higher ridership than one to Jax. However,  this is a project that's a lot more than passenger rail based. Just about every other potential revenue stream is eliminated using I-4 and other property not in a FEC related company's control. Then someone has to fund 80 miles of new infrastructure. Without massive public incentives and subsidies it's hard to see a Tampa link materializing.

AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

Jacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

Edit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

[thelakelander]

There's freight potential connecting Orlando to Port Canaveral. I'm on my way home to Polk County. I'll respond in greater detail once I get stationary.