2014 Metropolitan Area Census Estimates Released

[simms3]

My experience with raleigh-Durham is that is it definitely one metro, no question about it.  RDU is smack dab in the middle and Research Triangle Park (RTP, named after the nickname for the metro - "Research Triangle", or the Triangle) is actually mostly in Durham's county, not Raleigh's.

To me there seems to be more "connectivity" between Raleigh and Durham than there is between DT Jax and all of its surrounding environs.  If St. Augustine, Baker County, Nassau County, and Putnam County are part of Jacksonville's MSA, it's quite absurd that Raleigh and Durham are considered two MSAs.

A little less connected, by the "Triad" of Greensboro-High Point and Winston Salem is definitely one "metro" much moreso in the sense of the word used by German cities - 3 adjacent cities all very well connected by American standards.

Salt Lake and Ogden/Provo and SF/SJ are the other two areas that are disparate to the rest of the country and so on paper SF's metro appears even smaller than Boston's and Salt Lake appears smaller than Jacksonville  Reality is quite a bit different.

Fact of the matter is that the Triangle is pushing 2 million people and is a bigger metro than Jacksonville.  It feels more woodsy and sprawled, and I hate the place with a passion, but it is a bigger metro.

[edjax]

^ I don't think Putnam County is included in the Jax MSA. I believe it is only included in the Cobmined Stat Area which then also includes St Mary's, GA. But for this particular list it is only Duval, St John, Clay, Baker and Nassau.

[simms3]

^^^either way, that includes Yulee, Fernandina, St. Augustine, etc etc and there is definitely more of a connection ebtween Raleigh and Durham than there is between Jax and St. Augustine (they're also much closer).  Raleigh to Durham is akin to driving between Gate Pkwy/SJTC and Downtown Jax - suburban sprawl the entire way with a lot of sprawly interconnectedness.  It's 24 miles, which is akin to the drive from JTB's terminus at the beach to downtown Jax.  In Jax you pass maybe 500,000 people and maybe 25 million sf office space along the way.  In Raleigh-Durham you pass at least a million people and a good 40 million sf of office space along the way, as well as about 2 SJTCs.  That market is a solid 1.5-1.8x as big as Jax and it is all one market no matter how you slice and dice it.

http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/~/media/marketbeat/2015/01/Jacksonville_Americas_MarketBeat_Office_Q42014.pdf

The brokerages certainly view it as one market (and here you can really see how far ahead Raleigh is, in terms of size, amount of new office under construction, their rents, their leasing activity, the kinds of buyers and tenants in that market, etc etc).
http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/~/media/marketbeat/2015/01/Raleigh_Americas_Alliance_MarketBeat_Office_Q42014.pdf

Wake County is 998k people in 835 sq mi and adjacent Durham County is 288k people in 286 sq mi.  That's about 1.3 million people in about 1,100 sq mi, before you get to the adjacent equivalents to SJC, Clay, Nassau, Baker, etc etc.

[simms3]

^ I haven't been to every city on the list, but some of the bigger ones (like Atlanta) don't have super successful downtowns.

And how about these:

#13 - Riverside, CA
#30 - Las Vegas, NV (doesn't really even have a downtown)
#34 - San Jose, CA

DT Atlanta is light years beyond Jacksonville's downtown.  And I'm only talking DT Atlanta, not Midtown + Downtown.  Combining those two and immediate neighborhoods surrounding each and there's no comparison.  And yes, even with my saying that I realize the core of Atlanta is pathetic compared to the cores of other large US metros/cities, which still isn't saying much.  I'd easily put Atlanta ahead of Houston or Dallas, though (with Houston rapidly catching up).

I think 'not super successful" still beats us.  Also a quick google,of Downtown San Jose probably tells me to,cross that one off the list too. Seems a bit more vibrant than DT Jax.

DT San Jose is very slow and quiet, but there's more going on there than DT Jax.  It's got enough going on whereby they can support no less than 7-8 ~20 story residential towers going up right now, as well as a Whole Foods and a large open air market that came with one of the newer recent residential towers to go up.  DT San Jose is also on its way to being connected to BART (under construction) and already is connected to the rest of the Bay Area via Caltrain, VTA light rail, Capitol Corridor/Amtrak, and ACE.  There are probably as many nightclubs in and around DT SJ as there are in all of Jax (and bigger/better clubs too), and lots of bars in addition.  But relative to Oakland or certainly SF, there's no reason to go down there unless you live down there.

[tufsu1]

^ when was the last time you spent more than an hour or two in downtown Jax simms? 

Not that it is like this every day, but the core will be plenty hopping this week!

For comparison, downtown Jacksonville has more than 10 condo towers/apartment buildings, two grocery stores, 20+ nightspots, and multiple open-air markets weekly

[simms3]

San Jose is a much denser city than Jax, even as sprawled as it is.  DT SJ has a Census Tract with a density of over 40k ppsm.  And it is surrounded by Census Tracts with densities > 20k ppsm.  It's the center of a county that is 2 million strong.  And it is connected to San Francisco and Oakland via rail and no more than 5 minutes from an airport that is at least 2x the size of JIA, with international flights.  Not to mention its economy is booming and it is adding far more people than Jax/Duval.

I'm not trying to say DT Jax doesn't have anything going on, and DT SJ is super sleepy compared to its metro neighbors.  But it would only be logical that it has more going on than DT Jax.  It's a much bigger city, even if it feels like a bedroom community.  The Bay Area in general is just on a whole other level of "big" than lil ol Jax.

Re: condo/multi towers, I mentioned SJ has 7-8 going up *now*, not 7-8 total.  There are about 2-3,000 downtown units under construction now in addition to what it has already (with the airport there, there will always be height limits and you won't ever see a big "skyline" with tall buildings, but there's quite a large sea of ~20 story towers).  And I don't know how many open air or indoor markets it has, other grocery stores.  But now it does have a Whole Foods.  WF site selection is pretty discriminatory.

And I'm not a SJ "fan" - I rarely ever go down there.  But I do keep up with the real estate.  I was just responding to the thought that SJ might be one of those cities with less going on than Jax, and I just don't think that is the case.  I think it's more a case of SJ being overshadowed by two of the densest, most urban and exciting cities in the country and looking like a Fresno in comparison.  Put SJ next to Jax and I think it would be a different story.

[jcjohnpaint]

Whats the deal with Sacramento and St. Louis?  They were growing well the last census.