Jacksonville Mayoral election 2015

[mtraininjax]

Didn't Audrey Moran win a straw poll at the Hyatt in the last election? Polls are worth what you paid for them....

[JeffreyS]

It was about a 600 person poll which is not bad for Jax. However it is a random sampling so if Mr. Bishop can generate a better than modeled turnout amongst those paying more attention or swing voters  he could get into the runoff.

[Tacachale]

Here's the full results:

http://www.unf.edu/publicrelations/media_relations/press/2015/UNF_Poll_Finds_Uncertainty_and_Indecision_as_March_Election_Looms.aspx

[Cheshire Cat]

A poll is a poll is a poll.  In this case we have a random sampling of about .001% of the known active voter base in Jacksonville which is 549,069 individuals. When reading the breakdown of all the questions in the poll it is clear to me at least that our future is still being decided largely by un-informed voters (meaning people uneducated to the issues and the candidates).  Right now this tiny sampling also says that Alvin Brown is not leading with the numbers he needs to win, especially when it is runoff time.  25% of the voters are "undecided" which is a huge percentage. 

Then there is this: "Of the 546 likely voters polled, 44 percent think Brown is a strong leader and 41 percent don't think he is a strong leader, with 15 percent unsure or unwilling to answer.  44% of the folks responding have not looked to issues or facts in making their decisions about what leadership means.  For many of these folks strong leadership means plenty of PR and no real scandal.  It does not mean delivering a competent budget, leading on serious issues like the HRO and having nearly zero ability to work with the city's legislative body, which is of course the city council.

It goes further which is to indicate that by race 67% of black voters will vote for Brown.  That 67% being drawn down from the 28% of voters who are African American.  Clearly race is a factor when it comes to their voting habits.

Then we have Curry who only 38% of those polled could identify as a conservative in spite of him having been chair of the state GOP with with 62% having no clue about his political leanings.

Then we have Bill Bishop, whom 13% considered a moderate and 66% hadn't a clue what his politics are.  This is after him serving nearly 8 years on the council.  Amazing.

The biggest get in this poll to my eye is the very real and undeniable fact that the voters of Jacksonville are largely uneducated about or indifferent to the actual functioning of our government and further are not vetting the candidates that they vote for.  Until the voters become engaged and educated we will continue to see folks put into leadership positions by voters who frankly know little about them.

The other get in this poll is the 25% undecided which means the upcoming election could turn out as a shocker depending upon who manages to garner that uncommitted 25%,  My guess is that the 25% are the more educated voters who are no want to make a rash decision and that means the upcoming debates will be a major factor in deciding who makes it to the May 6th race for Mayor.

[vicupstate]

Then we have Bill Bishop, whom 13% considered a moderate and 66% hadn't a clue what his politics are.  This is after him serving nearly 8 years on the council.  Amazing.

Not so amazing when you consider 40 or 50%  of the public can't name the Vice President.

If you assume the undecideds split 50/50 between the incumbent and his opposition, then Brown is almost there. That may not be a valid assumption, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was.  The only way Brown wins is if he avoids a runoff altogether, or at the very least comes VERY, VERY close (48-49%).   

Bishop has to land a serious punch on Curry to make the runoff, if there is one.   

[Jimmy]

vic, I agree with you to some extent, but I can't imagine a scenario where this race stops March 24.  We're not talking about John Peyton and Jackie Brown.  This is a serious fight.  And I'm not sure that Bishop is drawing from Curry.  In my case, and in the case of a LOT of people like me, Bishop is drawing from the Mayor.  The whole I'm With Audrey brigade.

if Lenny Curry's operation was smart and not afraid of conflict (which seems to be the case), they would do robocalls and/or mailers to certain voter groups to remind them of how conservative AB is. His tea party connections; all the photo ops with Rick Scott. The way he stayed neutral in the 2012 Presidential campaign. Such a strategy would potentially keep some of the Mayor's supporters at home.

Some have suggested that AB has written off liberal/progressive voters and is making a play for tea partiers and westside conservatives.  It's true, he's been with the Tea Party and Billie Tucker herself.  So... ff you give me the choice between Coke or Chek Cola, I'm going to be pick Coke every time. Lenny is Coke for the conservatives. Alvin is Chek Cola. He's miscalculated and shrunk his base to fellow African American evangelicals, the 50 die-hards who can endure DEC meetings and are impervious to facts, and low-info voters who only vote for Corrine's Quick-Picks.  That might, MIGHT, squeak him through to May.  But that's the end of the line unless he can bring back progressives. And time is a wasting.

[Tacachale]

Both the polls so far show that Bishop is pulling from Curry far more than he's pulling from Brown. In today's UNF poll, Bishop and Allen voters were asked who they'd pick as a second choice in a Brown-Curry race, and 48% said Curry while only 31% said Brown.

Bishop's obviously getting a chunk of the old "I'm With Audrey" crowd, but not all of it, since he's only polling at 11%. Probably similar proportions of them are going for Brown, Curry, or none of the above.

[Jimmy]

It could be the case that a lot of the Audrey Moran folks are in the 25%.  It's a weird race, with the 3-way split.  All 3 choices are on some level conservative candidates.  The biggest failure this election season may reveal is on the part of liberals to produce any useful impact on the Mayoral election.  I hope that's not the case, but it could occur.

I think there are opportunities to change - in a big way - the composition and mindset of the Council. 

[Cheshire Cat]

The debates will be what the race for mayor ends up turning on.  I am convinced of that.

[tufsu1]

^ I highly doubt the poll 4 years ago had Audrey Gibson winning the mayor's race

[Cheshire Cat]

Well, I must admit that I did not go to the trouble to research this completely as the comment is simply a side note. The info was given me by a friend who is generally informed.  In any case, polls and straw polls are not real indicators of how a race will turn out and people are seeing that more and more in local races and in state/national contests too.  They seem to be more and more sketchy, especially when it comes to local races.  What matters are the absentee ballots and the ballots cast during early voting and on election day.    Jacksonville is a hard city to read during some election cycles and this is one of those hard to read contests.  Politics in this city can turn on a dime now and again.  Last years race for mayor made that perfectly clear.

Note:  This was a comment about Audrey Moran not Audrey Gibson who a UF poll had winning the last election.    I made a blunder when I first posted the info.

[Tacachale]

^I think what he's saying is that her name is Audrey *Moran*.

[edjax]

Well, I must admit that I did not go to the trouble to research this completely as the comment is simply a side note. The info was given me by a friend who is generally informed.  It could be that there was one of those who would you vote for polls that asked if these candidates were on the ballot.  In any case, polls and straw polls are not real indicators of how a race will turn out and people are seeing that more and more in local races and in state/national contests too.  They seem to be more and more sketchy, especially when it comes to local races.  What matters are the absentee ballots and the ballots cast during early voting and on election day.    Jacksonville is a hard city to read during some election cycles and this is one of those hard to read contests.  Politics in this city can turn on a dime now and again.  Last years race for mayor made that perfectly clear.

I think you need to check your name on who they said would win.

[Cheshire Cat]

You are so right Tacachale and I had already gone to bed when it hit me that I had completely messed that up so I got up to post a correction right now.  lol  The reason is likely that I was having a conversation earlier this evening with someone else about the fact that Audrey Gibson's mother had just passed away yesterday I believe.  So I got my Audrey's messed up tonight for a moment. Please pardon the error. 

[Cheshire Cat]

edjax.  Audrey Moran.  lol  Yes, I messed up.