Jacksonville Mayoral election 2015

[fsujax]

^^This has been my fear all along.

[Jtetlak]

Thanks @Cheshire, you're 100% correct. Politics is all about money, and it extends to non-partisan endorsements as well. I've recently found out, much to my surprise, that many groups and organizations have monetary campaign contribution minimums in order to qualify to receive their endorsements.

As a voter I am surprised that groups would avoid endorsing candidates that share their opinions on the issues, and some cases even endorse a candidates opponent who stands against their core beliefs, simply because the candidate hasn't raised enough money and therefore isn't considered "viable."

[JeffreyS]

I get the problems with Brown. Non budget-budget left to the CC, management of city services terrible, no stands taken for anything and he has not be able to clean up for Peyton/Delaney pension holiday debt.  However he hasn't let the sky fall either projects that were doable he has helped prod into existence. I doubt he would have let the FSU medical school, First Coast school of law and Art Institute get away from downtown like his predecessor. Bishop is my first choice but Brown would not upset me.

[vicupstate]

Judging from that last poll, Bishop's peeling off more Curry voters than Brown voters. Not to make everyone panic, but this could very easily lead to Brown getting in without a runoff. Even if Bishop keeps polling at under 10%, it could go 50-42-8 and then we're stuck with Brown for another four years. But of course Alvin keeps giving people a reason not to vote for him.

The only chance Brown has to win is to win outright, without a runoff, IMO.  I have a hard time believing he is at 50% or more right now. If the Khan announcement is splashy and gets rave reviews, he might pull it off, but that remains to be seen. 

[Jimmy]

I've been on both sides of that issue, Jason.  When I ran, I wasn't considered viable for a host of reasons, including minimum campaign fundraising.  But viability is a factor that groups should consider in determining whether to endorse, or not.

Now that I'm not a candidate, and more of an endorser, I definitely look at many factors when I evaluate a race, including fundraising.  Fundraising isn't just a function of "politics is all about money," but it's a reflection of the impact and connection a candidate is making with voters.  I think more highly of a campaign in which 100 people giving $10 to a candidate than I do of one where one person gives $1000. 

There are groups in town that will endorse what they see as a sure thing, even if the candidate doesn't align on their issue profile.  They do this, I suppose, to beef up their win/loss record to make a case for their own organizational viability.  I don't have much respect for that approach.  There are some races in which no candidate should be endorsed.  And others that might have multiple endorsements for the same race.  I don't like partisan endorsements at all, at least not for our unitary municipal elections.  There are candidates and officeholders from both parties that I think are effective, intelligent, compassionate, and driven to make our city better. 

tl;dr: Endorsements are complicated.

[Jimmy]

The only chance Brown has to win is to win outright, without a runoff, IMO.  I have a hard time believing he is at 50% or more right now. If the Khan announcement is splashy and gets rave reviews, he might pull it off, but that remains to be seen. 

Agree with this completely.  AB has a base of support somewhere around 35-40% of the electorate.  I don't see much he's done in 4 years to keep his non-base voters on board - those of us who propelled him to the narrowest of wins over Mike Hogan.  There is some power of incumbency, but not enough to bring his numbers above 50%.  People keep telling me about polls they've seen that paint the race in nearly every shade of the rainbow, depending on the bias of the person telling me about the poll.  I think it's wide open and anything can happen March 24, except for a one-and-done scenario for any candidate.

[Jtetlak]

Thanks Jimmy, I appreciate your perspective. I agree the process of endorsing a candidate can be difficult, and you raise many valid points, I'm merely trying to emphasize that people should rely more on their own investigation into a candidate rather than on whose seal of approval they have received.

The way some groups chose a candidate to endorse, as you described, may surprise even a large number of the people who are actually a part of that group. Before running for office I assumed I could count on the endorsement of certain organizations to inform me who the best candidates were, and ultimately who I should vote for, but I've learned recently that this isn't always the case.

Taken as a part of the whole, I can see the logic behind considering a candidates fundraising efforts in a decision, but to assign an arbitrary dollar amount as a threshold for who is viable or who can even be considered for an endorsement seems short sided to me, and I think many voters would agree...if they knew that was how the decisions were being made.

[tufsu1]

Judging from that last poll, Bishop's peeling off more Curry voters than Brown voters. Not to make everyone panic, but this could very easily lead to Brown getting in without a runoff. Even if Bishop keeps polling at under 10%, it could go 50-42-8 and then we're stuck with Brown for another four years. But of course Alvin keeps giving people a reason not to vote for him.

The only chance Brown has to win is to win outright, without a runoff, IMO.  I have a hard time believing he is at 50% or more right now. If the Khan announcement is splashy and gets rave reviews, he might pull it off, but that remains to be seen. 

there are several key announcements to be made in the coming weeks...in addition to the Khan thing, there is the re-opening of the Southbank riverwalk at the end of February...and a rumored announcement on the USS Adams. 

These things, along with the excitement being generated by Bill Bishop, may force Lenny Curry to spend more money in the first election than he wants to.

[Tacachale]

I get the problems with Brown. Non budget-budget left to the CC, management of city services terrible, no stands taken for anything and he has not be able to clean up for Peyton/Delaney pension holiday debt.  However he hasn't let the sky fall either projects that were doable he has helped prod into existence. I doubt he would have let the FSU medical school, First Coast school of law and Art Institute get away from downtown like his predecessor. Bishop is my first choice but Brown would not upset me.

Brown couldn't even complete a contract to keep the river taxi running for one of the biggest weekends of the year. He's dropped the ball on everything he's tried, and that's when he tries to do anything at all except mug for the cameras.

The only chance Brown has to win is to win outright, without a runoff, IMO.  I have a hard time believing he is at 50% or more right now. If the Khan announcement is splashy and gets rave reviews, he might pull it off, but that remains to be seen. 

Despite everything he's got a base; a lot of folks are going to vote for him no matter how poorly he does. I do tend to doubt he's really at 50%, but there are a lot of undecided voters still out there, and stranger things have happened. I definitely agree that he'll be in a much weaker position if he has to go into a runoff election.

Agree with this completely.  AB has a base of support somewhere around 35-40% of the electorate.  I don't see much he's done in 4 years to keep his non-base voters on board - those of us who propelled him to the narrowest of wins over Mike Hogan.  There is some power of incumbency, but not enough to bring his numbers above 50%.  People keep telling me about polls they've seen that paint the race in nearly every shade of the rainbow, depending on the bias of the person telling me about the poll.  I think it's wide open and anything can happen March 24, except for a one-and-done scenario for any candidate.

To my knowledge the only recent poll has been the St. Pete Polls poll. It shows Brown at only 37.9% but a lot of people are still undecided or checked "Someone else". As tufsu1 says, Brown could peel some of them off with some well-timed good news.

[Cheshire Cat]

Folks, We have us a real "horse race" this election cycle.  Any one of the candidates could pull the needed 51% if the cosmic forces align in just the right way. I don't see that happening and am not worried about it.  There are dissatisfied folks in the two major parties and those who are disillusioned along with the moderate voters out there will impact the race in ways that as of today cannot be measured.  There are twists and turns yet to come in this election cycle and one wrong move in any one campaign could have a major impact on this race.  Brown still has nothing to say beyond repeating his goals from the last election cycle.  The only reason the sky didn't fall under him was the hard work of the city council and others in positions of influence.  Make no mistake that there is a fire under the Bishop campaign that is growing daily.  Right now we still have Curry asking for donations but no real plans or platform has been stated.  Looks to me like his campaign is mirroring the last one Brown had, which was lots of "feel good statements" but no viable platform.  That is just how much depth there is to his supporters and those of Alvin Brown.  IMO  No real content or depth to either candidate.

[Cheshire Cat]

Meanwhile in Jacksonville these things happened over the weekend.  Lenny Curry won the "straw poll" taken at the "Tea Party" hobnob.



Bill Bishop met with over 250 supporters at Metropark.



Alvin Brown still is largely "not present" in this race beyond a couple of commercials and soundbites during which he repeats his ideas from last election cycle, none of which were made manifest and photo ops, lets not forget the importance of photo ops.




Then there is Alvin Brown with Rick Scott whom he thought he was in good favor with.




This is what Scott said at a meeting a few month's back: 

Perhaps the most notable cheerleaders for Curry were Governor Rick Scott and his top fundraiser, Darlene Jordan. When given the microphone to address the crowd of more than 300, both described Curry as the person they expect to defeat Alvin Brown in the city's next municipal election. In Republican-heavy Duval, the support of Scott and his finance chair are powerful votes of support.

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/162092

[edjax]

My guess is Bishop is pulling voters who voted for Brown last time that have become disenchanted with his lack of leadership.  But I also think he is also pulling some of those that had been leaning toward Curry because they just did not want Brown again. But I think Curry continues to lose those that just sided with him because he was not Brown due to his silence on the HRO issue and his continual no tax increase mantra.  Not to mention he has not offered any specifics either.

[Cheshire Cat]

Thanks @Cheshire, you're 100% correct. Politics is all about money, and it extends to non-partisan endorsements as well. I've recently found out, much to my surprise, that many groups and organizations have monetary campaign contribution minimums in order to qualify to receive their endorsements.

As a voter I am surprised that groups would avoid endorsing candidates that share their opinions on the issues, and some cases even endorse a candidates opponent who stands against their core beliefs, simply because the candidate hasn't raised enough money and therefore isn't considered "viable."

To your point.



http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/local/avondale-riverside/2014/08/14/jacksonville-election-donations-candidate/14059619/

[tufsu1]

Meanwhile in Jacksonville these things happened over the weekend.  Lenny Curry won the "straw poll" taken at the "Tea Party" hobnob.

Bill Bishop met with over 250 supporters at Metropark.

Alvin Brown still is largely "not present" in this race beyond a couple of commercials and soundbites during which he repeats his ideas from last election cycle, none of which were made manifest and photo ops, lets not forget the importance of photo ops.

Alvin Brown and City staff were at the first of their scheduled community empowerment days on the northside...another photo opp, maybe...but pretty meaningful to the area's residents as well.

[I-10east]

Can someone explain the lack of Democratic representation in this race? It seems like there should've had atleast one more registered Democrat running in the election.