2008 Atlantic hurricane season

[gatorback]

Oop, never mind.  I found your source.  Sen. John McCain???

Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) policy adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer’s claim that “we withstood hurricanes Rita and Katrina and did not spill a drop” of oil.

Schuster pointed out that “the U.S. Mineral Management Service said that Katrina and Rita caused 124 offshore spills for a total of more than 743,000 gallons of oil and refined products spilled” and asked Pfotenhauer if she wanted to “take back” what she said:

SCHUSTER: So Nancy, do you want to take back what you said?

PFOTENHAUER: Well, I actually do. I was misinformed…the point is still that we had a remarkable performance, that you had about 16,000 barrels that were lost during two of the worst storms that have ever…keep in mind David that 1,700 barrels per day naturally seeps into the ocean floor, so 365 days a year you’re at about 620,000 barrels per day, pardon me per year, that naturally seep into the ocean floor. So this is a really remarkable performance of technology.

But Pfotenhauer, a right-wing energy lobbyist, is misinformed still. According to a report from the County of Santa Barbara, CA, “the effects of seeps and spills differ hugely.” As one planner put it, “if seeps and spills are the same, why aren’t all the beaches covered with mounds of fresh tar and dead birds?”:

The key difference has to do with release rates and spatial concentration of the oil. Seeps release large amounts of oil over large areas of the ocean gradually throughout the year. Spills release large amounts of oil from a point source in a short time.

In fact the real “remarkable performance” has been the parade of conservatives repeating false claims to justify expanding offshore drilling.

OK storms are bad for the Gulf of Mexico environmently, but back on topic...

[apvbguy]

I wonder what New Orleans is doing in preparation for Gustav?  NWS shows it on a colision course with Louisiana as  cat 3.  Could this be Katrina 2??

hopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

[reednavy]

It's still too early to call. With each model run, they've continued to cluster, as well as shift every so slightly further east with each cycle.

[gatorback]

3 died in Haiti and 8 died in the DR because of TS Gustav.  The reason is the storm is moving slowly with heavy rain.  We don't need a Fay II right now.

[Jason]

I'd rather Fay II over Katrina II though.

hopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

I sure hope so.  Does anyone know what kind of progress has been made on the levees?  Are they just repaired or are they actually rebuilt properly?

[gatorback]

I wonder what New Orleans is doing in preparation for Gustav?  NWS shows it on a colision course with Louisiana as  cat 3.  Could this be Katrina 2??

hopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

This is spooky...

NEW ORLEANS (AP) _ As Friday's third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina approaches, officials in Louisiana and Mississippi are keeping an eye on storm Gustav.

The storm was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm after moving over Haiti but forecasters expect it to regain strength and move into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

Long-range forecasts say the storm could be a major hurricane threatening the central Gulf Coast by Monday, but they caution it's too early to identify a specific path.

New Orleans officials are making plans in case the city has to be evacuated. People who might need help evacuating are being advised to call the city's 311 information number.

Mississippi Emergency Management Director Mike Womack is advising south Mississippi residents to have a plan in place.

...they did this last time....people don't call...and they don't leave....

What if they're thinking they survived Katrina so they'll survive TS Gustav....that the levees wont fail this time.

[gatorback]

Gustav is back over open water but has some land disturbance and some sheer on the northern side which is impacting it a little...but once Gustav gets further away from land, it is expected to intensify.

[gatorback]

Gustav has state on alert
by Mark Schleifstein and Michelle Krupa, The Times-Picayune Tuesday August 26, 2008, 10:41 PM
The threat of a rapidly strengthening Hurricane Gustav reaching the Louisiana coastline by Sunday prompted state and local officials to plan for a possible evacuation and triggered a cloud of worry among residents.

At 7 p.m. Tuesday, Gustav was 60 miles west of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 155 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. A Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, Gustav likely will strengthen during the next few days as it moves south of Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Gustav -- the first serious storm to threaten Louisiana since Katrina and Rita -- will grow into a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds by Sunday afternoon, when it is expected to hover about 300 miles south of the Mississippi River's mouth. That forecast places the New Orleans area within the five-day "cone of error, " which accounts for expected variation in predictions, and indicates a 5 percent chance of tropical storm force winds -- at least 45 mph -- reaching the city by Sunday afternoon. There is a 5 percent chance of 65 mph winds reaching Plaquemines, St. Bernard and lower Jefferson Parish by the same time.

Gov. Bobby Jindal said he could declare a state of emergency as early as Thursday, which would begin an evacuation process resulting in the state exercising contracts for as many as 700 buses.

"Be ready, " Jindal said. "This is a serious storm."

Assisted evacuations could begin as early as Friday, and evacuations from hospitals and medical care facilities could begin Saturday. Evacuations by rail also could begin Saturday.

Contraflow, in which all lanes of major highways would direct traffic away from the storm impact area, could begin Saturday or early Sunday, Jindal said.

"These are the timetables as we see them now, " Jindal said.

He said the state has identified 10,000 critical care beds for evacuees and 68,000 regular beds for evacuation.

The Louisiana National Guard has been put on alert, Jindal said. The number of guardsmen and the place of deployment will be determined as the direction of the storm clarifies, Jindal said.

'We're ready to go'

Meanwhile, Gustav rattled some residents.

"If it hits the city anywhere near how (Katrina) hit, no one's going to come back, " said Wilma Crochet, 68, of Metairie, while shopping for emergency supplies at Lowe's on Veterans Memorial Boulevard.

She predicted that more people would evacuate earlier.

"My beautician told me she already booked an extra hotel room someplace up north called Branton, and we could stay there, " she said.

In New Orleans, Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Director Jerry Sneed said city officials are poised to begin an evacuation countdown.

"We're ready to go, " he said.

The city's timetable dovetails with a regional plan that has residents in different locations staging their evacuations to reduce congestion on the few highways leading north and west out of the area.

The city's plan calls for residents to gather at 17 sites, where they will be picked up by Regional Transit Authority buses and taken to the Union Passenger Terminal downtown. From there, they board state-chartered buses headed for shelters in Shreveport, Monroe and Alexandria, or Amtrak trains to Jackson, Miss.

Sneed urged residents who cannot get themselves to the loading sites, for any reason, to register for a program that will pick them up at their homes.

To sign up for New Orleans' city-assisted evacuation plan, residents should call 311, 877.286.6431 or 800.981.6652.

The Louisiana SPCA will close to the public today at 2 p.m. to prepare for the evacuation of shelter animals, SPCA spokeswoman Gloria Dauphin said. Transportation of owned animals to Baton Rouge will begin Thursday afternoon, and evacuation of all other animals to Texas will take place Friday and Saturday.

"We definitely don't want to wait until Saturday or Sunday to decide what to do, " said Ana Zorrilla, director of the Louisiana SPCA. "Our best course of action is to prepare in advance to allow enough time for a safe evacuation."

Sneed said the preliminary evacuation timeline is based on the expectation that tropical storm force winds will hit the Louisiana coastline Sunday about 4 p.m.

Counting backward from that target, Sneed said the state Department of Transportation and Development would activate charter bus contracts early Thursday. Amtrak trains already are stationed at the Union Passenger Terminal, he said.

RTA buses would begin shuttling residents from the pickup sites early Friday morning, with charter buses arriving in the city Friday about noon, he said.

Residents evacuating on their own would be asked to wait until mid-morning on Saturday, after the departure of residents from coastal areas, he said.

Officials monitor storm

Nagin, who is in Denver serving as a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, has stayed "up-to-date in real time" through e-mail and text message updates from Sneed and others, mayoral spokesman Terry Davis said.

Davis said Nagin is scheduled to return to New Orleans Thursday evening but could arrive sooner depending on Gustav's path.

Officials in Jefferson and St. Bernard parishes were monitoring the storm but had made no decisions about evacuations.

In St. Bernard, Parish President Craig Taffaro said the parish will ask representatives of the Corps of Engineers to accompany the parish on a drive-by of the levee-protection system to help identify any potential problem areas.

On Tuesday afternoon at the National Hurricane Center, forecasters were monitoring several computer models that had the storm tracking northwest across the Gulf toward the mouth of the Mississippi River at the end of five days and strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.

The storm was being steered to the west by an extension of a subtropical high-pressure system sitting over the Bahamas and Florida, while a lower pressure "weakness" extending from the Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf seemed to be drawing the storm forward.

Some unconcerned

Reactions to Gustav's threat are mixed among residents.

Timber Wolfe, 36, of Metairie, said he will evacuate if weather reports deem Gustav a Category 3 storm or higher. Until then, he is not worrying, he said.

"It's not the end of the world, " he said.

Lakeview resident Jeff Carcich, 26, said his father called to notify him about evacuation plans, but he is not too alarmed.

"I have faith in the parts of levees that were rebuilt, " Carcich said.

Others seemed more stressed.

"Everybody I know is talking about it, " said Pamela Alaimo, 34, a former New Orleans resident who recently moved to Metairie.

While shopping at Lowe's, Alaimo said she had been overhearing numerous conversations about Gustav. "Near the plants, I heard a mom telling her daughter, 'I don't know if I should get all this stuff, the hurricane is coming soon.' "

. . . . . . .

Staff writers Nicole Dungca, Robert Scott, Sheila Grissett and Bob Warren contributed to this report.

Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3327.

[Jason]

Sounds like they are taking it pretty seriously.  Let's see what develops as the storm enters the middle of the Gulf.

[Traveller]

Looks like we've got a new storm headed our way.  TD Eight, soon to become Hurricane Hanna.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents

[Driven1]

Looks like we've got a new storm headed our way.  TD Eight, soon to become Hurricane Hanna.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents

if there is one thing I am confident of, it is that THIS storm will not come directly into us.  they never have and never will. gulf stream will take it north before it would hit us directly. 

every storm that does hit us has to wobble into us some strange way (and being careful to avoid the gulf stream currents).  hopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

[Traveller]

hopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

It looks like many of the models have it doing just that.

[gatorback]

I agree but the local news media is going to eat this all up even after TD 8 turns a heads north.

[Jason]

These are the storms surfers live for.

[reednavy]

This is not a joke.

A very reliable model, can't remember which one, actually brings Gustav into the Big Bend, and bringing Hanna west. Then they actually revolve around each other and slam into Florida at the same time. Now, as unlikely as this is, if it was to verify, this state would be done for.