Obama is Renewing the American Sense of Identity. Unbelievable to Watch

[RiversideGator]

Wow.  Obama is KILLING McCain in the polls!

It looks like there is all the possibility of a Landslide.

But Gallup shows the race a dead heat:

June 25, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of June

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points.

Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June. -- Jeff Jones

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

[Charleston native]

Wow.  Obama is KILLING McCain in the polls!

It looks like there is all the possibility of a Landslide...

Uh, what fabricated article from an outdated scrap of paper did you dig out of the trash bin to come up with that conclusion?

It's really a fricking tie. Here's the latest:

Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of June

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June. -- Jeff Jones

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from June 22-24, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,600 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

[Charleston native]

Crap, River, you beat me to it! 

Do I owe you a beer now? 

[RiversideGator]

I noticed that.  It was the obvious answer.  There are one or two extreme outlier polls showing big leads but they are probably not credible.  In any event, it is too early to be meaningful.

[Charleston native]

Absolutely. We have a long way to go before November, and any poll is just premature prognostication.

[gatorback]

Charleston:  While that might be true, "any polls is just premature...", bla, no winner of the office of the president has ever come back to win from a % not much more then the current spread.  Sorry.

[thelakelander]

Wow.  Obama is KILLING McCain in the polls!

It looks like there is all the possibility of a Landslide...

Uh, what fabricated article from an outdated scrap of paper did you dig out of the trash bin to come up with that conclusion?

It's really a fricking tie. Here's the latest:

Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of June

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June. -- Jeff Jones

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from June 22-24, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,600 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

Are there any other polls out there to back up gallup's?  Most show Obama with a huge lead.

Obama 317 McCain 194   Ties 27

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[RiversideGator]

Rasmussen has Obama with just a 4 point lead:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Thursday, June 26, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 3% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[RiversideGator]

And Fox News shows Obama with a 4 point lead:

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/061908_release_web.pdf

[RiversideGator]

So, the polls are all over the map.  This is why some outlets look at averages, as does RealClearPolitics.  Here is a link to their site:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[RiversideGator]

Note from this chart that Kerry had a wide polling lead on Bush in July and August of 2004:



And we should all remember that Dukakis had a 17 point lead on George HW Bush in July, 1988 but lost in an 8 point landslide the following November:
http://www.observer.com/node/57075

This is pretty funny commentary from July, 1988.  Sound familiar?

It's fairly easy to find evidence for the theory that the Democrats are headed for a victory. Just look at the polls--and not only the "horserace" polls, showing Dukakis with a healthy lead over Bush. Gallup polls taken earlier this year showed the Democrats regaining a lead, of 42 to 29 percent, over the Republicans in party affiliation. In 1985, shortly after President Reagan's re-election victory, the parties were nearly equal in strength. In October of 1987 a Time magazine poll asked people which party would handle various issues better. The Democrats were rated five points ahead on "keeping the country out of war." Two years earlier the Republicans had been five points ahead. On "keeping inflation under control" the Republican advantage had shrunk from 10 points in 1985 to an insignificant one point by 1987. The Republicans were still ahead on "keeping the country strong and prosperous," but the margin was six points in 1987, down from 18 points in 1985. And this was before the stock market crash.

The revolt against government is over. According to a CBS-New York Times poll taken in May, the American public is now evenly divided when asked whether it prefers a "bigger government providing more services" or a "smaller government providing fewer services." The Times reported, "Bigger government has not been this popular since November 1976, which is also the last time the Democrats won a presidential election." Moreover, tax resentment, a key source of public support for the Reagan revolution, has clearly diminished. From 1978 to 1986, according to polls taken by the Roper Organization, the percentage of Americans who felt that their federal income taxes were "excessively high" dropped from 41 to 26 percent.

Americans are in a mood for change. When people are asked in various ways whether they want the next President to continue Ronald Reagan's policies or change direction and follow different policies, a majority consistently opts for change.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/policamp/insider.htm

[Driven1]

Thats right, keep reminding people of the electoral hanky panky of the last two elesctions, river.  keep reminding them.

"I WUZ DISENFRANCHIZED!!!" when Clinton won in 96.

[BridgeTroll]

Accusations of hanky panky??? from the democrats???  You guys invented it.  I think there are as many dead democrats voting as live ones for gods sake...

[gatorback]

Well, if the  Repubs would stop preventing dems from voting then maybe we wouldn't have to.

[BridgeTroll]

Well, if the  Repubs would stop preventing dems from voting then maybe we wouldn't have to.

Who?  When?  So cheating is OK if you think the other side is?? Seems a rather weak argument...