The looming 2015 election for Mayor of Jacksonville

[Cheshire Cat]

It's 2014 and we are now facing down another election for the office of Mayor of Jacksonville.  Incumbent Alvin Brown is asking to keep the position.  So far only one viable opponent has stepped up to challenge him and that is councilman Bill Bishop.  Brown calls himself a Democrat (though he openly refused to back Obama in re-election) and Bishop is a Republican.  We learned in todays Jacksonville Daily Record that Jim Overton will not be running against Brown
even though many had asked him to enter the race.  Rumors abound that Jim Bailey is being encouraged to run.  No confirmation of that though.

We find ourselves three years into the Brown Administration and it is time to ask ourselves what has Alvin Brown done as Mayor and why should he be re-elected? I am not going to list all of the things that he has done, things that are fails or questionable, but instead will invite everyone to read the Mayor Alvin Brown's administration thread found on this forum under the heading of Politics. 

To my view there were a couple of people who could successfully challenge Brown for his seat in 2015.  Both Republicans.  That would be Audrey Moran and Lori Boyer.  Another who could potentially take him down is Bill Guiliford, but he to date has not filed to run.  We would have a better chance at a securing the needed change in the office of Mayor if any of these individuals would run.  So far as the ballot currently stands we are down to Brown and Bishop.  I don't believe Bishop will carry the needed punch to take Brown out of office.  Is this because of Brown's leadership skills?  Not by a long shot.  It is rather because Brown is not a threat to Republican control over local politics.  Brown is no problem for them as it has already been proven that he will do what he is told to do.  The Dem's will hang onto Brown because he is currently holding the office and he has that D attached to his name, although Brown has shown himself to be weak or simply absent in the deciding of key issues across the board.  His one biggest failing is the unresolved pension issue.  He has been unable to come up with a single doable plan to address the issue and most recently created a scandal with his "directive" given to the JEA regarding one of his most recent funding proposals.  He has been unable to come up with a true balanced budget and has left all of the heavy lifting to the City Council even to the point of allowing legislation to go through without his signature.  The medical corridor he boasted about never manifested.  The NBA team remains what it was, nothing but hot air.  He did get through the DIA organization as he promised some of his supporters but it came up short in both funding and expectations when it delivered a plan for downtown that was no plan at all.  He turned a deaf ear to the issue of Kim Scott and the many looming questions about her office as well as not only remaining silent on the human rights issue for the GLBT community by not only failing to make a commitment to the cause but according to one member of council was the person who scuttled the vote by forcing Johnny Gaffney to pull his promised support at the last meeting.  His promised educational reforms, non existent save the creation of a faux post for education in his office.  We certainly have not been taken to a "new level" in downtown or the city of Jacksonville save a mega jumbo tron for Everbank Field. 

The GOP has no interest in a serious challenge to Brown.  In fact he has proved to be a bit of a help to their own platform when he is seen and photographed with governor Rick Scott who is of course the GOP want's to remain in the office of Governor. 

Having Brown in office has certainly done one thing and that is to kick the can of financial reform and dealing with our budget crisis well down the road.  That is hurting us in ways that will not fully manifest until he is out of office and we are in greater financial crisis than ever before to the tune of billions in unfunded pensions.

Next elections for Mayor is not looking hopeful for Jacksonville at this point.  Short of a major shake up or scandal, we are likely looking at four more years of Brown photo ops and that is a frightening prospect for the future of Jacksonville

[JayBird]

I was actually favoring an Overton run, however it appears the financial backing just wasn't there. Trying to unseat a sitting mayor, governor, president is always hard unless they really bungle something up. Also, I fear a huge portion of Jaxons will vote for Brown again not because he'll do good but more so because in several elections of the last decade we've been continuously disappointed by change and hope promised. The few conversations I've had with friends have all included something to the point of we don't like him, but at least we know what the next 4 years will bring. And that's hard to beat.

[Cheshire Cat]

I was actually favoring an Overton run, however it appears the financial backing just wasn't there. Trying to unseat a sitting mayor, governor, president is always hard unless they really bungle something up. Also, I fear a huge portion of Jaxons will vote for Brown again not because he'll do good but more so because in several elections of the last decade we've been continuously disappointed by change and hope promised. The few conversations I've had with friends have all included something to the point of we don't like him, but at least we know what the next 4 years will bring. And that's hard to beat.

Exactly JayBird and the view that "we know what the next 4 years will bring" will fail us in the next election.  Because we cannot kick the financial burden of short budgets and unresolved pension down the line for a total of eight years.  This is my main concern for our city.

Should Moran or Boyer step into this race even with less funding, they could swing the outcome in 2015.  However, neither has indicated an interest.

[ben says]

I will run in 2020 or 2025

[Cheshire Cat]

Good on you Ben.  Let's hope the city isn't in financial ruin by then. 

[JayBird]

Oh I agree CC (and welcome back!) and the problem will be that much worse in 2019, however it's hard for anyone (myself included) to think that far in the future. Especially when voting.

I like Audrey Moran, but think she has made it clear that she wants nothing to so with it. Lori Boyer would be an awesome choice, but I also have to reference Ted Kennedy in saying that even though he held presidential aspirations, he realized many years later that as Senator he made such a greater impact on the country.

Good politicians go nowhere without money behind them. And that will be hard to get when they can put there money in a sure bet.

But there is still plenty of time for someone to step up, I think they have until December/January to officially register, so I will hold on to such hope that somewhere out there (maybe reading this forum right now) will step up and begin the first step to the cities political rebirth.

As a complete aside, and possibly a different thread, but at 33 I have never made voting decisions along party lines. And neither does anyone else in my generation that I know of. Now that most people in their 30s begin paying attention to elections for the first time, I believe this eventually change a lot of what we perceive in politics.   

[Cheshire Cat]

Oh I agree CC (and welcome back!) and the problem will be that much worse in 2019, however it's hard for anyone (myself included) to think that far in the future. Especially when voting.

I like Audrey Moran, but think she has made it clear that she wants nothing to so with it. Lori Boyer would be an awesome choice, but I also have to reference Ted Kennedy in saying that even though he held presidential aspirations, he realized many years later that as Senator he made such a greater impact on the country.

Good politicians go nowhere without money behind them. And that will be hard to get when they can put there money in a sure bet.

But there is still plenty of time for someone to step up, I think they have until December/January to officially register, so I will hold on to such hope that somewhere out there (maybe reading this forum right now) will step up and begin the first step to the cities political rebirth.

As a complete aside, and possibly a different thread, but at 33 I have never made voting decisions along party lines. And neither does anyone else in my generation that I know of. Now that most people in their 30s begin paying attention to elections for the first time, I believe this eventually change a lot of what we perceive in politics.   

I agree on most points.  Interestingly I have been talking with many of my buddies whose business is local politics and running campaigns.  It is the feeling that the right candidate could take Brown down with a sound platform and a third of his money by simply pointing to Browns total lack of leadership, the non budgets submitted by Brown and of course the looming pension issue.  In the big boy league, it is well understood that no one takes Mayor Alvin Brown seriously but they know his value as a pawn in their own agenda's.  Rick Scott is a prime example of that.

Lori Boyer has been an excellent example of keeping balance and clear thinking on the council level but in this situation I think her being in the office of Mayor will help the city far more than her remaining on the council.  But of course, if she isn't interested in the office of Mayor having her remain on council is paramount. 

[Tacachale]

Overton's one of the good guys. Losing people like that really makes me question the wisdom of local term limits (and of making the property appraiser a political position). And too bad on the mayoral run; perhaps it's a sign the party is getting it together rather than just having a free-for-all like last time.

[Cheshire Cat]

Overton's one of the good guys. Losing people like that really makes me question the wisdom of local term limits (and of making the property appraiser a political position). And too bad on the mayoral run; perhaps it's a sign the party is getting it together rather than just having a free-for-all like last time.

I totally agree about the office of Property Appraiser and term limits.  The same goes for Tax Collector, SOE and other like offices.  As to the Republican party getting together, there is an effort to pull together but the focus of that is mainly aimed at the governors race.  As I already said, Alvin Brown in the office of Mayor is no real threat to the local GOP.  I am sure Bill Bishop may see some support by hard cord conservatives in the party and the party itself if no other Republican runs.  But the consensus among politicos in the know is that the R's are not vested in anyone and more R's on the ballot will not be a game changer due to the primary voting process. 

[Know Growth]

"looming " elections...yikes,thanks for the update.
Even lower case seems as if Fox.!!!

I recall being in a room with about sixty folk or so-a person announced Intent To Run....unless I would Go For It.
All eyes shifted to me. No.           That was easy-Clay County.

[tufsu1]

I think CC should get Mike Hogan to run again

[Cheshire Cat]

From the Times Union regarding at large members. 

http://members.jacksonville.com/opinion/letters-readers/2011-10-11/story/large-council-members-are-key

At-large council members are key
Tue, Oct 11, 2011 @ 12:00 am | updated Tue, Oct 11, 2011 @ 12:26 am

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In Saturday's editorial, the Times-Union not only defended gerrymandering to preserve minority access districts, it suggested the possible elimination of at-large members for the purpose of maintaining African-American representation on City Council.
As an at-large member of Jacksonville's City Council, I have an obvious interest in this debate as well as a perspective on the benefits of at-large representation. So before we scrap a system that artfully balances the needs of individual council districts with the broader interests of Jacksonville as a whole, here are three reasons to maintain the present mix of both at-large and district representation.

- As a republic, we understand the importance of checks and balances within and between branches of government.

Just as the five at-large City Council members operate as a check on any demands by district representatives that would be contrary to the interests of the entire community, the presence of 14 district council members balances this by directing the attention of at large members to the unique concerns of individual districts and with the added benefit of providing those district representatives with a pool of five potential allies as a base of support.

- With 19 district representatives and no countywide members, City Council could become Balkanized. It's not unrealistic to imagine circumstances where coalitions of council districts might assemble into voting blocks that pitted one constituent group or region against another. The presence of five at-large members militates against this possibility and works to ensure equitable treatment for every council district.

- Under the existing system, every citizen has six City Council representatives - their district representative plus five at-large members.

If a district council member is unresponsive, then constituents have five at-large council members they can turn to.

As an at-large member, I routinely respond to inquiries from citizens all across the city because I'm accountable to every voter. Under a system that relies exclusively on district representation, however, citizens whose council member dropped the ball or refused to listen to their concerns would have no other recourse.

Perhaps the most implausible argument made in the Times-Union editorial was the assertion that 19 district representatives would reduce gerrymandering because "with more [minority access] districts it would be easier to keep the shapes compact..."

Given the demographic realities of drawing such districts, don't bet on it.

The reason the four minority access districts are gerrymandered is that African-Americans are concentrated in one region of the county.

To achieve 60 percent African-American majority, the districts require they reach into the inner city and Northwest areas to divide up the large population of black residents, then radiate outward in search of the additional numbers needed to form a council district.

If at-large members were eliminated to maximize minority access, these districts would still be similarly drawn; the only difference would be a smaller slice of voters taken from the urban core to capture the 60 percent minority composition in each district. As district boundaries spiraled outward to gather the non-minorities needed to meet the population requirements, the result would still be a gerrymander.

The 14 district council members are the backbone of our legislative system and minority access is essential.

But the five at-large members play an important role, as well. Doing away with them may have the unintended consequence of fostering unhealthy regional competition while dividing City Council in ways that prove counterproductive.

Robin Lumb is a newly elected member of the Jacksonville City Council, Group 5 At-Large.

[Kay]

Overton's one of the good guys. Losing people like that really makes me question the wisdom of local term limits (and of making the property appraiser a political position). And too bad on the mayoral run; perhaps it's a sign the party is getting it together rather than just having a free-for-all like last time.

I'm hearing the Republican donor base is lining up behind Lenny Curry.

[Cheshire Cat]

Overton's one of the good guys. Losing people like that really makes me question the wisdom of local term limits (and of making the property appraiser a political position). And too bad on the mayoral run; perhaps it's a sign the party is getting it together rather than just having a free-for-all like last time.

Kay:
I'm hearing the Republican donor base is lining up behind Lenny Curry.

I have also heard this Kay but not for 2015 but the next election when Brown will be termed out as well as Scott if both get re-elected.   Lenny will not comment on it though.    If he did run, As it stands, Lenny has more influence now as a GOP leader to my view.  He can influence things statewide.  With the push to re-elect Scott I am not sure the GOP would consider it prudent to pull their most credible guy (Curry) out of the statewide effort to keep the office of governor.

[Tacachale]

Overton's one of the good guys. Losing people like that really makes me question the wisdom of local term limits (and of making the property appraiser a political position). And too bad on the mayoral run; perhaps it's a sign the party is getting it together rather than just having a free-for-all like last time.

I'm hearing the Republican donor base is lining up behind Lenny Curry.

This is what I'm hearing as well.