2012 City Population Estimates Released

[thelakelander]

^Probably, there are a ton of tables to climb through.  I'm compiling the general 20-34 age group census results of randomly selected cities (San Francisco, Jacksonville, Detroit, and Austin) now.

[thelakelander]

2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

I believe the appropriate word here would be....BOOM!

Im not sure that a 2% increase would fall into the boom category, tufsu, but since victories of this sort are obviously very rare for you,...please take all the pleasure you would like vicariously.

Saying that something is holding its own, is a very far cry from declaring it a hub of activity, after all.

For what it's worth, here's the census data for the 20-34 age group for a few more cities, with links back to the original source:


San Francisco - 46.87 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of San Francisco lost 7,734 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  I'd have to dig a little more but I think San Francisco was hit hard in the early 2000s tech bust.  So recent growth may not have matched where it was at a decade ago.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 236,472 - 30.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 228,738 - 28.3% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1




Jacksonville - 747.00 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Jacksonville added 19,822 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. Jacksonville seems to be maintaining.  However, what the other cities have that we don't, is a more compact population of like-minded minds.  That synergy directly leads to a different type of prestige and urban environment.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 165,196 - 22.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 185,018 - 22.4% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Austin - 297.90 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Austin added 29,476 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. This city is hard to figure out.  A lot of Austin's growth is coming from an aggressive annexation policy. 

http://impactnews.com/austin-metro/lake-travis-westlake/austin-annexation-a-tale-of-two-subdivisions/
http://austintexas.gov/department/annexation-extraterritorial-jurisdiction-planning

Since 1999, they've added over 42 square miles of neighborhoods and more are on the list.  No wonder they caught and surpassed Jax so quick. 

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 221,588 - 33.7% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 251,064 - 31.8% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Detroit - 138.75 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Detroit lost 69,520 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  Big trouble here.  Losing 70,000 from this age group qualifies as...call 911! Just as shocking as the population loss, is the percentage decline of this age group.  Those who have the means and job opportunity, are fleeing rapidly. Perhaps this is why their business community is stepping up to the plate to turn it around since the city obviously can't.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 209,977 - 25.9% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 140,457 - 19.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1




Portland - 133.43 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Portland added 19,844 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. Similar absolute number as Jacksonville but within 614 square miles of less land area to play with.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 137,454 - 25.9% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 157,298 - 27.0% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Miami - 35.68 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Miami added 17,165 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  What's going on in Miami is impressive.  There may be international factors at play but they are still packing people into a small amount of land area. Keep up this rate of infill through this decade and its downtown will quickly fill up with pedestrians.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_11_5YR_DP05

[tufsu1]

This is like TUFSU's inclusion of Winn Dixie as a "Dining Option" in the booming downtown dining scene that he was trying to describe back in 2008 I suppose.

it would be really awesome if you could bring this up at least another 10 times over the next two years....and while doing it, ignore the fact that one can buy hot food and cold sandeiches at Winn Dixie

[thelakelander]

Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

[simms3]

Atlanta - 131.8 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Atlanta added 5,861 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 121,240 - 29.1% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 127,101 - 30.3% - 20 to 34 years


Anyway, regarding Census numbers, sure they don't "lie", but they don't tell a complete story.

Everyone's interested in Miami now for a variety of reasons (heck, we are pursuing a few large structured deals there), but everyone seems to still jokingly ask "what IS the economic driver there?"  If it were "Millennials" and traditional knowledge/skill-based job creation as it may be in a host of US cities at this point, then Miami would be more of a no-brainer for most.  But it's not.  Throwing money at that market really takes an in depth dive to see what exactly you're throwing money at.  What I do hear is that more foreign $$$ than ever is flooding Miami, tourism is up, and interest from retailers looking for foot traffic locations in the coastal communities is fierce.

I'm totally not arguing that people aren't interested in Miami because I think it's seen as one of the most compelling target markets now for anyone with any amount of dry powder sitting around, and the optimism for and in Miami seems to be at an all time high.  I just don't hear conversations about Miami that mimic conversations about Seattle, Denver, Boston, Austin, heck Charleston SC.

Lake - for your subjective reasoning as to why Miami may not be appealing to Millennials, JOBS!  Before I even applied to colleges, I ruled out FL/Miami for reasoning of poor job markets that don't pay well or offer the opportunities that I wanted.  I applied to schools in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham, New Orleans (paternal alumni connection to Tulane, didn't really consider also for reasons of JOBS as NOLA was still reeling obviously and is still lukewarm for high paying jobs for young people), and of course Atlanta (got in everywhere, but chose Tech for engineering...again, JOBS).  Also, culturally, Miami is about the most superficial and crazy backward city in America (perhaps moreso than LA?, where I've been visiting more frequently as of late).  I'm a nerdy, traditionally raised guy.  It was NOT appealing to me, even though I love to visit and party there.

SF is appealing because everyone here is nerdy to some degree.  I think the Millennial generation is pretty nerdy overall.  Miami is not a nerdy city in the least bit.  Quite the opposite.

It would be interesting, really for SF, too, if there are actually more people being priced out of the city than new people coming in (which would contradict Census, which has been notoriously wrong before).  SF is multiples more expensive than Miami and the pay is A LOT higher with more jobs, but it's not necessarily enough to cover COL for most people.  Young people that move to SF are literally all graduates of Stanford, Columbia, Harvard, Carnegie Mellon, Georgia Tech or insert world class university here.  It's not the best place for a starving artist right now.  Conversely, Miami has never been a super attraction to the well paid elite college/grad school graduates, pay has never been very high, high paying jobs have never been abundant, yet the city for a while has been pretty darn expensive and it's becoming even more expensive.  There's a dichotomy there.  Look at NYC - in the 70s when my mom lived there it was falling apart and relatively cheap.  Now anyone newly moving to Manhattan or parts of Jersey/Brooklyn is a millionaire because you have to be.  The jobs there pay accordingly, but you're likely not moving to Manhattan with stellar job offer if you went to local community college (at least nowadays).

I think these circular arguments are what perplex so many people about Miami because as a city/metro it doesn't make much sense.

Super huge, dense and expensive, but autocentric and not major/traditional job center.

[thelakelander]

Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

Im glad you think so, as they certainly don't support anything to the contrary of what I have said either.

I assume that we have given up claiming or agreeing with TUFSU that Miami is just a burning hub of Millennial relocation?

If that point is conceded, then my work is long since done.

Lol, burning hub of Millennial relocation?  How did you interpret that opinion from this simple comment?

Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials

[thelakelander]

Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.

[tufsu1]

Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

Im glad you think so, as they certainly don't support anything to the contrary of what I have said either.

I assume that we have given up claiming or agreeing with TUFSU that Miami is just a burning hub of Millennial relocation?

If that point is conceded, then my work is long since done.

Lol, burning hub of Millennial relocation?  How did you interpret that opinion from this simple comment?

Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials

good question...inquiring minds want to know

[thelakelander]

As for Downtown Miami, this 2011 article suggests it's being fueled by young professionals:

Study: Young professionals dominate downtown Miami

Downtown Miami is skewing younger, emerging as an attractive location for young professionals seeking a more urban lifestyle, with incomes exceeding that of the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County, according to a new study.

The Miami Downtown Development Authority’s Population & Demographic Profile Study indicates that 57 percent of residents were age 20 to 44 and had a per capita income that is higher than both Miami and the county.
The study also shows the number of households has increased 93 percent since 2000.

There were 23,000 new residential units delivered in Miami between 2003 and 2010. The area’s population stands at about 72,000 people as of midyear, representing a 9 percent increase, year-over-year, and outpacing the 6.8 percent growth rate experienced during the previous decade, according to the DDA.

The area’s per capita income grew by 39 percent from 2000, and far exceeded that of the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County. Additionally, more than 65 percent of employed downtown residents work as professionals, with an average household income of $43,992.

“The influx of new residents is transforming the area into a 24-7 urban community and is having a ripple effect by attracting additional investments to the area,” DDA Executive Director Alyce Robertson said in a statement.

According to the report, downtown Miami's rapidly expanding population is generating growing demand for retail, restaurants, entertainment and cultural facilities, as well as enhancing the area’s drawing power as an international destination for business and tourism. As a result of this population growth, retail has flourished, with more than 200 new restaurants and shops opening since 2005, with many catering to the younger demographic.

Major mixed-use projects such as Genting Group’s Resorts World Miami, Swire Properties' Brickell CitiCentre and Espacio USA’s 1400 Biscayne Center project are examples of international developers betting big on downtown Miami’s future. The $3.8 billion Resorts Worth Miami might include gambling if the Florida Legislature approves it.

New residential condominiums are also in the works, with both Newgard Development Group and The Related Group planning towers.

“Downtown Miami’s vibrancy is unheralded considering the general state of the U.S. economic recovery,” said report co-author Craig Werley, of Focus Real Estate Advisors, in a statement. “This report confirms the district’s long-term viability and role as Florida’s most critical economic engine.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/11/22/downtown-miami-is-regions.html?page=all

[simms3]

Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.

I can't believe this thread got on this much of a tangent!  The fact that the three most serious debaters on Metrojacksonville are going crazy (you, me and Stephen) over what's driving or not driving Millennial growth in Miami is indicative of the fact that the city/metro is soooo perplexing.

Lake, you're in architecture...so if you have a job I have a job, literally, since we're tied to the same industry.  If Miami has construction, that means there is investor interest...which likely means we are there!  (we are)  To be candid, my shift has focused to the west coast and I work primarily in a fund that has four designated target markets whereby a certain $ amount has to be allocated to two asset classes within these four markets, obviously Miami is not one of these markets.  But it's a market of interest to this fund, and another I work in.  It's crazy confusing.

Honestly, I don't think the surge in real estate activity is driven by the 20-34 age group, which would be driven by a heated job market.  I think relative to the state and the city, historically, the job market's pretty hot, but when you put Miami up against Atlanta, which also got hit HARD, or Houston/Dallas/Austin, DC, Denver, Boston, NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, LA, SF, etc etc it can't hold a candle in quality or quantity job creation for 20-34 year olds.  That drives construction, which you see in these markets.  What you see in Miami is construction driven by foreigners, I think, and tourism.

What also drives construction towards larger projects is the fact that the city has barriers and is built out.  I have walked Brickell Ave multiple times within the past year or two (our corporate hotel is the new JW in DT).  I am out scouring for people and places.  Miami is IMPRESSIVE to me.  It's a big city.  But it can't hold a candle in any which way to SF, in any way.  In Atlanta you have a low enough COL and a high enough pay whereby 26 year olds (friend in town visiting I saw tonight, who is from Boston and went to undergrad with me in Atl) are buying 2 BR condos in the city...and he is a stock trader and can tell you legitimately what he does, something that seems rare for lots of people in SoFla.  You don't have that in Miami unless they have sponsors (i.e. foreign parents with money).

[thelakelander]

really?

maybe because your comment was in response to this?

On the other hand, I find what's happening in Miami very impressive.  We know for a fact that those 14,000 new residents were all infill urban growth.  By the same token, it's interesting to see that this growth is also taking place in adjacent compact urban centers like Miami Beach and Hialeah as well.

I'd love more details as to the nature of the growth in Miami.  It's my understanding that the bulk of new construction in Miami and South FL remains luxury for sale condos in coastal areas, some affordable housing projects in north/central Miami, and tourist-driven retail and mega-projects in the coastal areas.  I don't see young 18-32 year old college grads and young professionals flocking to South FL like they are currently flocking to a few markets in TX, CA, WA, DC and other more traditional education-based employment centers.  I believe it's still flight money/investment home buyers tied to foreign residents and northern residents making Miami their primary, even if they don't live there year round.

Otherwise I think you'd hear more "employment" announcements (not related to service industry) and corporate announcements tied to Miami, and actual office construction, versus the luxury high rise communities still sprouting up like weeds that cater to a different clientele.

I stand by that statement. Adding +14,000 residents to a 35 square mile area with a population density of over 11,000 people per square mile is very impressive.  Imagine what Jax would look like if it added that many residents to the Northside, downtown, Riverside, Murray Hill, and San Marco over a two year period?  Heck, right now, Riverside/Avondale is still losing population but several believe it's bursting at the seams! They'd go haywire if the neighborhood had the level of redevelopment and infill pressure currently occurring in some of Miami's neighborhoods.

I don't see how anyone who claims to understand urbanism can believe that Miami's general population growth isn't impressive.  However, that statement was made in line with the actual topic of this thread (um, "2012 City Population Estimates Released) and had nothing to do with a certain age group within that population.

[thelakelander]

Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.

I can't believe this thread got on this much of a tangent!  The fact that the three most serious debaters on Metrojacksonville are going crazy (you, me and Stephen) over what's driving or not driving Millennial growth in Miami is indicative of the fact that the city/metro is soooo perplexing.

I'm just debating with Stephen for the fun of it.   We both like to go head-to-head on topics like this every once in a while.

Lake, you're in architecture...so if you have a job I have a job, literally, since we're tied to the same industry.  If Miami has construction, that means there is investor interest...which likely means we are there!  (we are)  To be candid, my shift has focused to the west coast and I work primarily in a fund that has four designated target markets whereby a certain $ amount has to be allocated to two asset classes within these four markets, obviously Miami is not one of these markets.  But it's a market of interest to this fund, and another I work in.  It's crazy confusing.

Honestly, I don't think the surge in real estate activity is driven by the 20-34 age group, which would be driven by a heated job market.  I think relative to the state and the city, historically, the job market's pretty hot, but when you put Miami up against Atlanta, which also got hit HARD, or Houston/Dallas/Austin, DC, Denver, Boston, NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, LA, SF, etc etc it can't hold a candle in quality or quantity job creation for 20-34 year olds.  That drives construction, which you see in these markets.  What you see in Miami is construction driven by foreigners, I think, and tourism.

Yes, it is a market driving by foreign investment.  It's one of our major gateways to the Caribbean, Central and South America.  What we may traditionally view as a language barrier may be viewed as a great entry point for those arriving from other countries. Nevertheless, I never claimed it's real estate activity was being driven by young professional growth.  I only claimed it was holding its own in attracting and retaining that particular age group.

What also drives construction towards larger projects is the fact that the city has barriers and is built out.  I have walked Brickell Ave multiple times within the past year or two (our corporate hotel is the new JW in DT).  I am out scouring for people and places.  Miami is IMPRESSIVE to me.  It's a big city.  But it can't hold a candle in any which way to SF, in any way.

They are different animals.  San Francisco's boom years occurred before the age of the automobile.  Miami's coincided with the age of sprawl.  Naturally, it's starting to infill in.  I wish we could bottle some of that magic and unleash it in our urban core which has done the complete opposite since 1950.

In Atlanta you have a low enough COL and a high enough pay whereby 26 year olds (friend in town visiting I saw tonight, who is from Boston and went to undergrad with me in Atl) are buying 2 BR condos in the city...and he is a stock trader and can tell you legitimately what he does, something that seems rare for lots of people in SoFla.  You don't have that in Miami unless they have sponsors (i.e. foreign parents with money).

I haven't really studied the Miami market in regards to young professionals.  However, I seriously suspect there's a niche there (i.e. attractiveness to those coming from other countries) that's playing a larger role in its growth than places like Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Nashville.

[ProjectMaximus]

fwiw:

http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-with-happiest-young-professionals-2012-9?op=1

19. Miami, FL

Bliss Score: 3.679/5

“Miami is not only a hotbed of clubs and beach activity," Golledge tells us.

"Whether they are working for a large technology company, in hospitality or a retail organization, young professionals consistently mentioned that their co-workers and daily tasks influenced their overall happiness.”

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/happiest-cities-young-professionals-211721461.html

No. 2 - Fort Lauderdale, FL
Overall Score: 3.665

[thelakelander]

A couple of guys from Miami have been following this thread and don't agree with arguments that the city isn't attractive to millennials.  I came across these comments on another forum this morning:

^ Not that I know of! By the way Lake I read that little exchange with "Simms" on Metro Jacksonville and the "Millenials" BS!  The guy bashes Miami every chance he gets then goes to our page on SSP wanting to see the latest projects.
I guess he never thought "educated " "bi-linguals" & "hispanics" would want to stay in Miami after they graduate considering we have a ton of multi-national corporations who base their Latin American HeadQuarters in Miami!

^From WikiPedia:
Miami serves as the headquarters of Latin American operations for more than 1400 multinational corporations, including AIG, American Airlines, Cisco, Disney, Exxon, FedEx, Kraft Foods, LEO Pharma Americas, Microsoft, Yahoo, Oracle, SBC Communications, Sony, Symantec, Visa International, and Wal-Mart.
"Simms" must be think everyone in Miami is working at McDonalds!

He also seems to think nobody would want to live in Miami unless they speak Spanish, but that certainly isn't true.  Let me go look at what he said.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1630282

[simms3]

^^^Oooooo.  If they're so concerned about out little casual debate here on MetroJacksonville, why don't you invite them to come post here, sounds like you are in communication with them (what'd you do go seek out these guys to elicit their expert opinions on another forum?  LoL).  This looks like it's meant to be a "jab" at me from you?  Stupid.

You've been pretty aggressive with me lately...I'm sensing spite!  Ha