All Aboard Florida targets groundbreaking this year

[thelakelander]

The planned $1.5 billion All Aboard Florida Miami-to-Orlando passenger rail project could be closer than many think. In fact, executives are expecting to see shovels hit the dirt this year.

full article: http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2013/03/all-aboard-execs-target-this-year-to.html

[Jason]

Man, these guys aren't kidding around.  This is great news.  I sure hope we can figure out our JRTC issues and come up with a solid plan soon.  We HAVE to be ready to jump on board when the trains start rolling in.

[JeffreyS]

Good to see them moving quickly.

[spuwho]

I am looking forward to seeing the official trainsets in action.

Still a lot of naysayers out there on AAF.

[spuwho]

Lots of armchair prognostication that AAF is a big joke to rally investors for the FEC.

I quote from several blogs.....

Over the past year, nothing has come to my attention to reverse my skepticism over this All Aboard Florida passenger service initiative. If AAF is in fact what I think it is - a ploy to stir up interest in the FEC for sale of the property to another party, such as the State, it will not be the first time in railroad history that a passenger train has been used as a pawn.....this faux passenger train initiative sparked a lot of interest and public awareness - and I believe it is analogous with what is moving forth with this All Aboard Florida today.

I don't care if they go out and hire Mickey Mouse and a corps of Mousekeeters to run this thing. I'm still holding to my views that this is some kind of "public awareness" stunt to put the FEC on the map and otherwise "fatten up the steer" for a sale to a public agency.

Here are my odds at present:

30% that an Amtrak train will someday be scheduled over the FEC
20% that a Locally funded intrastate pazssenger train will run over the FEC (lest we forget, volks, that in order for there to be a State funded passenger train in Florida, under existing law, any county it operates through must impose a dedicated tax to participate in its funding. The route goes through an awful lot of Fox News watching, train hating, real estate).
0% that the FEC, or any subsidiary thereof, will operate a passenger train for their own account.

[thelakelander]

Interesting observations and theories.  I guess we'll find out one way or another this year.  What's their take on the real estate development side of the FEC project and it's impact on the feasibility of AAF? 

[Ocklawaha]

The FEC RY has been "being sold" or "bought out" or "merged" or "for sale" for as long as I can remember.  I recall a Daytona Beach News Journal headline which stated: "Merger Rumors Rife as FEC Stock Prices Soar," this would have been around 1970. That kind of puts me in the 'I'll believe it when I see it,' camp. Needless to say, this has been going on with occasional hysteria since Flagler died and the company went bankrupt.

FEC has long had a cozy relationship with Norfolk Southern, they both run trains on each others track, NS to Miami and FEC to Atlanta. They built the huge new Titusville Intermodal Terminal:

The terminal is strategically located in Central Florida, allowing for easy-access to the Orlando and Tampa markets via the Beach-Line Expressway.

With this new intermodal terminal, NS is able to offer a highly reliable, truck-like service between Titusville and Chicago, Atlanta, and Los Angeles as a result of capacity and efficiency improvements along these routes. Additional service connections will be offered soon. Access to Titusville is via the Florida East Coast Railroad’s (FEC) rail line.

The key to their independence might also be found in the fact that CSX actually originates or terminates a huge share (something like 70%) of the FEC's Freight traffic. A sale to CSX would shut NS out of the Florida market except for Jacksonville, Lake City and Perry. A sale to NS would likely piss off CSX and cost the FEC dearly, possibly even leading to the complete closure of the Jacksonville gateway. FEC is unique, because their originating traffic (where the money is) is pretty light, terminating traffic is huge but doesn't account for a proportionately large share of income. Read into this the desire to get the port traffic in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. This is something that Jaxport/JTA could benefit from (the S Line) if our city was brain dead. 

[spuwho]

Interesting observations and theories.  I guess we'll find out one way or another this year.  What's their take on the real estate development side of the FEC project and it's impact on the feasibility of AAF?

Many of the naysayers are commenting that the lack of a public announcement from any trainset manufacturers about an order is all the evidence they need. If the engine (EMD F59PHI) or rolling stock hasn't even been ordered yet, then they are pretty skeptical it will happen. Even if the Cocoa-OIA link is late, they still need rolling stock between Cocoa and Miami. These things have lead times. And when no one announces an order with the start up time coming up so fast, it lends credence to their arguments. Personally, I don't care if they pull them with a EMD GP30 and use retired Metra bi-levels.

I agree that Flagler's recent RE purchases in West Palm is a good sign of things to come, but again the skeptics have made remarks about other railroads in the past that made lots of bluster about passenger service, shortly before they sold out or merged. The passenger noise would abate shortly after.

With FECI metering out the amount of information, and people having to glean news reports, business journals, real estate guides and public comments by executives to community groups, the perception can be of ulterior intentions.

Some people think it is odd that they bought a station site in West Palm, but haven't applied for anything in Miami to build the terminal.

Call it cynicism, paranoia, or downright impatience. You just can't please everyone.

[thelakelander]

Hmm, they already own the downtown Miami site and the Fort Lauderdale site is an existing transit center.  Purchasing a site in West Palm Beach doesn't seem odd at this point.  You have to own the land and finish designing what's going to go on it before you can pull a permit. I wonder is there a fear of seeing a private company pull something off that everyone assumes can't be a money maker? In any event, this is interesting theatre.

[Brian_Tampa]

Having been 'lurking' around this forum for a year or so, I am familiar with the posters and the topics.  That being said, let me add my 2 cents worth regarding All Aboard Florida. I believe this project is 100% real and will happen. Maybe not as originally scheduled but it will happen. It won't be like any other rail service in this country.  AAF has a concept - look who they have hired: Disney executives and real estate developement people, along with Gene Skoropowski (a damn good passenger rail manager!). This is not just about running trains but about providing a service that will compliment FECI's main reason of being, real estate. My prediction: look for agreements with all the major tourist companies in Florida (Disney, Universal, Carnival, and the airline and resort companies). That is where they will get their traffic from. You guys are correct, just because AAF is being very private about their progress so far, does not mean things are not going forward. As thelakelander said, I believe part of the negativity shown by certain bloggers is probably based on a fear that a private operator will actually succeed and show the rest of the country that government is not always the answer when developing new passenger rail services. Since neither the state government or Amtrak has shown much interest in expanding rail service in Florida, our only hope at this point is that AAF is successful and develops a statewide network eventually with service to Jacksonville and Tampa. As said, interesting theatre indeed!