The Jacksonville Jaguars

[MusicMan]

I have friends flying in from Seattle, San Fran, Austin, New York, Dallas and Charlotte for this one.

Hopefully an epic game. Watching Seattle right now I have a lump in my throat. Not sure we can score on them.

[Keith-N-Jax]

Seattle is playing up to the competition tonight, either way next Sunday will be very difficult with what ever version we see out of Blake.

[MusicMan]

Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson are miles ahead of BB.

[ProjectMaximus]

Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson are miles ahead of BB.

So Blake is NOT a league MVP candidate? How dare you

[MusicMan]

All things being equal, we are not as likely to get as deep into the playoffs as the Seahawks or the Eagles. (I think that was my point.)

[MusicMan]

So are  you saying the low attendance has nothing to do with the "protests?"

[Tacachale]

So are  you saying the low attendance has nothing to do with the "protests?"

Sorry, I thought I was clear. I am saying that the slight increase in attendance was due to more Colt fans than Charger fans attending the game.
I think there is a variety of reasons for the overall disappointing attendance.

One of which is the protests.

[KenFSU]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21681144/jacksonville-jaguars-receive-100-logs-bologna-beef-checkoff-national-hot-dog-sausage-council-head-coach-doug-marrone-likes-bologna-sandwiches

[Wacca Pilatka]

So are  you saying the low attendance has nothing to do with the "protests?"

Sorry, I thought I was clear. I am saying that the slight increase in attendance was due to more Colt fans than Charger fans attending the game.
I think there is a variety of reasons for the overall disappointing attendance.

One of which is the protests.

Maybe. If I recall,  paid attendance jumped after the protests. So, perhaps protests are helping.

The way I see it -

From 2013-2016, the Jags had an attendance baseline of about 59,000 between season ticket, partial game, and broker packages.  That was the kind of number for tickets distributed you'd see in preseason or inconsequential regular season games against fan bases that don't travel well.

That number would jump by 2k-5k for single-game sales if we were playing a popular visiting team (e.g. Packers in the 2016 opener, Steelers in 2014) or if the game seemed to have some consequence (e.g. Falcons in late 2015 when the Jags had a vague outside shot of winning the division).

This year we shed some season ticket holders who had given up on the organization, or brokers who were less attracted to this year's home opponent schedule, so the baseline dropped to 56,000 - that was about our tickets distributed figure for the preseason games.

The first home game this year drew 61,000 because we distributed 5,000 free tickets to first responders, etc. post-Irma.

The second game against the Rams was back down to 56,000.  In between the Titans game and the Rams game, two things happened that seemingly offset themselves: 1) the protests apparently caused some people to turn in their season tickets, dropping our baseline below 56,000; 2) the Jaguars showed some evidence of being good with the stompings of Baltimore and Pittsburgh, causing increased single-game sales to offset the lost protest sales.

Thus, for the Jags to have drawn 60-61k for the Chargers, Colts, and Bengals games, I suspect there were about 7,000 single-game and new partial season ticket packages sold for each of those games.

If this were 2015 or 2016, where we had 59k as our baseline, we'd be looking at sold-out games.  But because of the preseason disillusionment with the franchise and some protest backlash, we're coming up 3,000 or 4,000 short.  The Seattle game may yet be a sellout (or close) since it's a highly consequential game against a popular team.

[KenFSU]

So are  you saying the low attendance has nothing to do with the "protests?"

Sorry, I thought I was clear. I am saying that the slight increase in attendance was due to more Colt fans than Charger fans attending the game.
I think there is a variety of reasons for the overall disappointing attendance.

One of which is the protests.

Maybe. If I recall,  paid attendance jumped after the protests. So, perhaps protests are helping.

The way I see it -

From 2013-2016, the Jags had an attendance baseline of about 59,000 between season ticket, partial game, and broker packages.  That was the kind of number for tickets distributed you'd see in preseason or inconsequential regular season games against fan bases that don't travel well.

That number would jump by 2k-5k for single-game sales if we were playing a popular visiting team (e.g. Packers in the 2016 opener, Steelers in 2014) or if the game seemed to have some consequence (e.g. Falcons in late 2015 when the Jags had a vague outside shot of winning the division).

This year we shed some season ticket holders who had given up on the organization, or brokers who were less attracted to this year's home opponent schedule, so the baseline dropped to 56,000 - that was about our tickets distributed figure for the preseason games.

The first home game this year drew 61,000 because we distributed 5,000 free tickets to first responders, etc. post-Irma.

The second game against the Rams was back down to 56,000.  In between the Titans game and the Rams game, two things happened that seemingly offset themselves: 1) the protests apparently caused some people to turn in their season tickets, dropping our baseline below 56,000; 2) the Jaguars showed some evidence of being good with the stompings of Baltimore and Pittsburgh, causing increased single-game sales to offset the lost protest sales.

Thus, for the Jags to have drawn 60-61k for the Chargers, Colts, and Bengals games, I suspect there were about 7,000 single-game and new partial season ticket packages sold for each of those games.

If this were 2015 or 2016, where we had 59k as our baseline, we'd be looking at sold-out games.  But because of the preseason disillusionment with the franchise and some protest backlash, we're coming up 3,000 or 4,000 short.  The Seattle game may yet be a sellout (or close) since it's a highly consequential game against a popular team.

Really great analysis here.

[Wacca Pilatka]

^Thank you both.

I think SMM is correct on the other factors like player safety, inconsistent handling of off field incidents, etc. depressing interest.

[Tacachale]

So are  you saying the low attendance has nothing to do with the "protests?"

Sorry, I thought I was clear. I am saying that the slight increase in attendance was due to more Colt fans than Charger fans attending the game.
I think there is a variety of reasons for the overall disappointing attendance.

One of which is the protests.

Maybe. If I recall,  paid attendance jumped after the protests. So, perhaps protests are helping.

The way I see it -

From 2013-2016, the Jags had an attendance baseline of about 59,000 between season ticket, partial game, and broker packages.  That was the kind of number for tickets distributed you'd see in preseason or inconsequential regular season games against fan bases that don't travel well.

That number would jump by 2k-5k for single-game sales if we were playing a popular visiting team (e.g. Packers in the 2016 opener, Steelers in 2014) or if the game seemed to have some consequence (e.g. Falcons in late 2015 when the Jags had a vague outside shot of winning the division).

This year we shed some season ticket holders who had given up on the organization, or brokers who were less attracted to this year's home opponent schedule, so the baseline dropped to 56,000 - that was about our tickets distributed figure for the preseason games.

The first home game this year drew 61,000 because we distributed 5,000 free tickets to first responders, etc. post-Irma.

The second game against the Rams was back down to 56,000.  In between the Titans game and the Rams game, two things happened that seemingly offset themselves: 1) the protests apparently caused some people to turn in their season tickets, dropping our baseline below 56,000; 2) the Jaguars showed some evidence of being good with the stompings of Baltimore and Pittsburgh, causing increased single-game sales to offset the lost protest sales.

Thus, for the Jags to have drawn 60-61k for the Chargers, Colts, and Bengals games, I suspect there were about 7,000 single-game and new partial season ticket packages sold for each of those games.

If this were 2015 or 2016, where we had 59k as our baseline, we'd be looking at sold-out games.  But because of the preseason disillusionment with the franchise and some protest backlash, we're coming up 3,000 or 4,000 short.  The Seattle game may yet be a sellout (or close) since it's a highly consequential game against a popular team.

Really great analysis here.

Agreed. Also agree with SMM.

[Wacca Pilatka]

SMM, I'll see your bold call after 4-3 and raise you this... 

^ I expect we'll see a lot of inconsistency this year.

The Jags' formula is predicated on ball control with running and controlled passing, getting ahead early and allowing the defense to tee off and force turnovers.

It'll work probably at least half the time (particularly given that the Jags have a relatively soft schedule).  When it does, it can snowball because it's easier to create turnovers against a team playing from behind (particularly with the speed the Jags have at CB and LB, and with improved pass rush).  Turnovers create the scoring opportunities to break the game open.

When it doesn't - e.g., going against a team with a very strong offensive line like the Titans' that doesn't allow the defense to rampage - it can snowball in the other direction if the Jags can't control the ball.  Giving up turnovers, getting into holes with penalties, allowed the Titans to get a short field consistently in the second half.  The Jag defense tired out, understandably, and the game got out of control.

It's a lot like the 2004-06 editions of the Jags, really.  They have a formula that can work, but they aren't going to be well-equipped for playing in shootouts or coming from behind, and they don't have a lot of margin for offensive error.  Of course, those teams went 9-7, 12-4, and 8-8, respectively, even the least of which would be a huge step forward from the past several years. 

The 2006 team in particular comes to mind; it outscored its opponents by over 100 points, but it had a tendency to either dominate (beating the Colts by 27, the Jets by 41, etc.) or lay an egg (losing badly twice to the then-bad Texans).

If Blake can average out to 2006 David Garrard-level play, this team will go 10-6.

[ProjectMaximus]

^^Sorry guys but I have you all beat. I was predicting the Jags to win 12 games and contend for the Super Bowl all the way back in 2008. 

Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson gonna fix the WR position. And Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are just what we need to get to the QB. 

[Wacca Pilatka]

That brings back some horrible memories.

Other than that strange discussion on the old Jag message board where Porter told a guy in Publix that he was at 93% full recovery from his injury.  That stayed funny for a while.