Run off

[futurejax]

Can someone explain what is needed for Moran to make the run off?  New to this game.  Thanks in advance.

[Jimmy]

Do you mean numerically or something else?  Numerically, she needs to come in first or second on March 22.  There will be a run off in May of the top two vote-getters in March.  With this field, no one will do better than 50%.  However, if a candidate did get more than 50% of the vote in March, there would be no run off.

[futurejax]

Do you mean numerically or something else?  Numerically, she needs to come in first or second on March 22.  There will be a run off in May of the top two vote-getters in March.  With this field, no one will do better than 50%.  However, if a candidate did get more than 50% of the vote in March, there would be no run off.

Thanks, I can't see how anyone gets 50 either.

I'm thinking Hogan gets 35-40%, Moran 25-30% and the rest of the field splitting the remaining 30-40%

[Jimmy]

So hard to call it at this point.  Hogan is likely ahead, but not by as much as his camp would like us to believe.  There's a bunch for #2, and I bet it's closer than the other camps would like us to believe.  Alvin Brown can't afford much in the way of media.  He's got some radio spots running.  He's confined his campaign to the northside and I think he can't get out of the teens countywide.

I may have to eat these words next week, but I'm going to go for it.

Hogan - 28%
Moran - 23%
Mullaney - 21%
Brown - 19%
Lee - 8%
Irvine - 1%

[konstantconsumer]

Seems like a good guess, Jimmy.  I'd put Hogan's numbers a little higher and Mullaney's a little lower, but not by much.

[iMarvin]

I think it's gonna be something like this:
Hogan-30%
Brown-25%
Moran-20%
Mullaney-20%
Irvine-3%
Lee-2%

[Jimmy]

I hope not, iMarvin, but it's certainly possible.  Nothing I've seen, heard, or been told would lead me to believe Mr. Brown will get to 20%, let alone 25.  Maybe if turnout remains low.  In 2003, Sheriff Glover took less than 28% in the first election - and he was Sheriff Glover and he campaigned countywide.  Mr. Brown has confined his campaign to the northside and doesn't have the name recognition.  He's not polling out of the teens.  He can't afford to get his message out.  I just don't see it. 

[CityLife]

I think its going to come down to Moran and Brown for the runoff.

I would like Moran's chances head to head with Hogan.

[iMarvin]

Jimmy, the only reason I say this is because Mullaney and Moran are kinda sharing the votes. Brown is the only other candidate with a chance of winning. If it was just two republicans and not three, then yeah, they would be ahead of him, but I think he's gonna get more becuase of the split between Mullaney and Moran.

[Jimmy]

But Marvin, what's different this year is that Moran and Brown are sharing votes, too.  In any other year, I would have been supporting Mr. Brown.  But this year, I'm with Audrey and I'm not alone.  A lot of Democrats are crossing over.

Mullaney and Hogan are sharing voters more-so, I think, than are Moran and Mullaney. 

[iMarvin]

That's good to know. That means this is still anybody's race. I just thought Hogan was doing so good becuase of the T-U but they can't be using any real information.