Oil may surge to $220 amidst Mid-East unrest

[peestandingup]

And they're not even counting the scenario if the violence reaches Saudi Arabia. I think OPEC & the rest of the oil clowns are gonna use this as another excuse to raise prices through the roof.

Anyways, not to be doomy gloomy, but I hope you guys are getting ready just in case. Get a bike (hell, get two!) & maybe a scooter for longer trips you might need. Cause once it starts & if the shit does hit the fan, you probably won't be able to find this stuff anywhere. Do it now if you can.

BLOOMBERG Feb 23, 2011: Oil prices may surge to $220 a barrel if political unrest in North Africa halts exports from Libya and Algeria, Nomura Holdings Inc. said.

Crude futures rose to almost $100 in New York today, the highest in more than two years, as violence in Libya threatened to disrupt exports from Africa’s third-biggest supplier. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi vowed yesterday to fight a growing rebellion until his “last drop of blood.” Protests in Algeria led to the ending of a 19-year state of emergency.

“If Libya and Algeria were to halt oil production together, prices could peak above $220 a barrel and OPEC spare capacity will be reduced to 2.1 million barrels a day, similar to levels seen during the Gulf war and when prices hit $147 in 2008,” the Tokyo-based bank said in a note today.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has spare production capacity of about 5 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday that the organization will boost output if there is a shortage. Algeria produced 1.25 million barrels a day last month, while Libya pumped 1.59 million a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Both nations are members of OPEC.

Crude for April delivery was at $99.68 a barrel as of 12:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since Oct. 2, 2008. Futures are up 24 percent from a year ago. Brent for April settlement climbed 5.4 percent, to $111.49, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gulf War

“The closest comparison is the 1990-1991 Gulf War,” during which OPEC’s spare capacity dropped to 1.8 million barrels a day and prices surged 130 percent in seven months, Nomura analysts led by Michael Lo in Hong Kong said.

Nomura said the $220 prediction may be an underestimate, as speculative investors trading crude oil who were not active in the early 1990s may amplify the price.

A surge to $220 would trigger demand destruction and a correction lower, according to Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

“These are levels that effectively kill the global recovery,” Schork said in an interview. “You can never say never, but $220 is blatantly not sustainable.”

Nomura forecasts that a jump to $220 would probably cause a temporary collapse in global oil consumption of 2 million barrels a day. That’s more than the 1.5 million barrels of daily growth anticipated this year by the IEA.

Scaling Back

Total SA and OMV AG followed Eni SpA, RWE AG and BASF SE’s Wintershall unit in scaling back their Libyan operations this week. The moves have reduced production by as much as 300,000 barrels a day, Vienna-based researcher JBC Energy GmbH said in a report today.

Protests in Algeria, while not as violent as in Libya, led to the announcement yesterday of an end to the state of emergency. The measure was imposed after the cancellation of the country’s first multiparty elections that Islamists were set to win in 1992.

“I see a higher chance for Libyan production to stop at the moment, but I will not be surprised if this rolls over into Algeria too,” Nomura’s Lo said by e-mail. “We are hearing a threat to oil infrastructure in Algeria already.”

If an export suspension is confined to Libya, rather than both countries, prices would rise to about half of the $220 a barrel forecast, Lo said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/oil-may-surge-to-220-a-barrel-if-libya-algeria-halt-output-nomura-says.html

[jaxnative]

Made even sadder by the fact that the impact could have been tremendously lessened if US energy policy wasn't being run into the ground by special interests and the political wusses who support them.  It will be interesting to see if there is a change in tone when the tourist industry in Florida grinds to a crawl or halt becasuse of the expense of making the trip.  Cruise ships sitting in port, charter boats pricing themselves out of business because of fuel, and huge tourist employers laying off tons of folks to stay above water.  Maybe we do need that fancy choo-choo train to run from Tampa to Orlando.  At least the taxpayers can subsidize getting South American tourists to the attractions.

[mbwright]

I think it is great that a county that only provides 1% of the worlds crude can be used to run up the profits of the oil companies.  If only I had a similar trick. 

[jaxnative]

The trick is to aggressively increase the supplies that are available to us and fund responsible research into alternatives until a technology is developed that is cost effective relative to existing sources.  Oil prices are rising on the international market due to fears of supply restrictions or cut-offs.

It's been estimated that China will surpass the US in about 30 years if we stay on our present course of weakening this country.  How much oil does China produce?

The economy of the United States is the world's largest national economy. Its nominal GDP was estimated to be nearly $14.7 trillion in 2010,[1] approximately a quarter of nominal global GDP.[2][11] Its GDP at purchasing power parity was also the largest in the world, approximately a fifth of global GDP at purchasing power parity.[2] The U.S. economy also maintains a very high level of output per capita. In 2009, it was estimated to have a per capita GDP (PPP) of $46,381, the 6th highest in the world.

Historically, the U.S. economy has maintained a stable overall GDP growth rate, a low unemployment rate, and high levels of research and capital investment funded by both national and, because of decreasing saving rates, increasingly by foreign investors. It has been the world's largest national economy since 1890[12] and remains the world's largest manufacturer, representing 19% of the world's manufacturing output.

II

[Cricket]

The gas that we pump @ $3.29 a gal today was sitting in some of the underground tanks of these gas stations long before the Libya revolt and purchased at much lower cost. I think they welcome the uprising over there to rationalize charging us more. Go figure!

[jaxnative]

I don't know if they welcome the uprising but I do agree with you Cricket that many are taking advantage of it.

[chipwich]

The gas that we pump @ $3.29 a gal today was sitting in some of the underground tanks of these gas stations long before the Libya revolt and purchased at much lower cost. I think they welcome the uprising over there to rationalize charging us more. Go figure!

Cricket:

I know a couple of convenience store owners (corporate) and I can guaranty you they absolutely do not welcome the rise in gas prices by any stretch of the imagination.  Their margins on gas are almost zero (after credit card fees).  The gas stations only offer gas as a convenience to get customers inside their stores.  Any rise in gas prices automatically reduces their inside sales as customers choose to reduce their purchase of drinks/ snacks, etc due to the higher fuel cost.

They are as much victims of higher gas prices as the customers.  I don't know that they really benefit much from a rise in fuel price, since they buy on the spot market.  I have never been in the C-store business, but I imagine they would make more money as the price is going down.  Basically, as their spot price goes down, Gas stations lower their prices more slowly, thus maybe making a bit more money a gallon. 

[Mattius92]

Time to go purchase that Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf, oh and too bad we don't have no EV-1... har har.

[Timkin]

All kidding aside, for some folks, these outrageous and still soaring prices are going to leave the folks who are already struggling desperately to make ends meet, deciding whether to buy a tank of gas for their car , or pay for their prescriptions, or even buy food.  It seems there is no end in sight. I would not pretend to know it all , but I strongly suspect the root of all of this is greed.. and every event that takes place in these foreign countries , an excuse to stick it to us ..

@ $220.00 a barrel.. I can envision the price for the end-user at the pump at $6.00 + a gallon probably more.  and it would not just be gasoline or oil that we pay dearly for , it would be anything made with petroleum.   Its sad and very scary , IMO

[Steve_Lovett]

I posted this under another topic, but it's appropriate in this discussion too:

I think that if our vehicle's odometers were replaced with cash register-like displays showing the dollar value of our gas consumption in real time it would be a huge shock to many, and might immediately do a few things:

1.) It would make us aware of how much disposable income is wasted in driving/commuting,
2.) We would consciously question when and why we drive, and reduce unnecessary trips,
3.) Would more urgently force alternatives to driving, such as non oil-reliant forms of public mass transit,
4.) Increase the value of neighborhoods located in higher proximity to work centers, including first-tier urban/suburban neighborhoods, and be a catalyst for the renewal of these areas.

Could it be likely that the cost of the auto-centric suburban development structure in Jacksonville will have a greater impact in (literally) driving the lower-middle class closer to poverty than any other social or economic factor?

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

In reference to the convienence store owner comments - hell yes they suffer because of high gas prices.  High gas $ = Less disposable income.  Stress at the pump = less in-store purchases.  Staggering Fuel Costs = Less Driving.  Less Driving = Exponential increase to what I just previously listed. 

I've stated this a few times on the JEA threads, the reason that the fuel at the pump fluctuates so much with the market is because they have to purchase their fuel at market costs.  If they waited until they're out of yesterday's $100 gas to raise prices, then they would already in the hole when they buy today's gas at $150.  Unfortunately, you can't order ahead and lock in your costs.  The price decreases happen with the market and not what they paid, also, so it's a double-edged sword.  On the down-cycles, they're selling us $150 gas for $100 prices.

Steve, some of us are keenly aware of the costs of driving.  Some of us can't impart our great knowledge on others that we are married to.    But there's a serious flaw with question #3.  In our city, the only 'mass transit' we have are the busses.  They are just as oil dependent as cars.  Think how much more they have to be subsidized to cover the extra fuel expenses.  Unfortunately, not enough people will start riding to even begin to offset the additional costs.  So everyone will have to suffer.

[dougskiles]

Steve, some of us are keenly aware of the costs of driving.  Some of us can't impart our great knowledge on others that we are married to.    But there's a serious flaw with question #3.  In our city, the only 'mass transit' we have are the busses.  They are just as oil dependent as cars.  Think how much more they have to be subsidized to cover the extra fuel expenses.  Unfortunately, not enough people will start riding to even begin to offset the additional costs.  So everyone will have to suffer.

So, hopefully JTA will also begin to take notice of the rising fuel cost and see the flaws in a Bus Rapid Transit system as opposed to an electric-powered Streetcar and Commuter Rail system.

And by the way, don't forget that we already have the most expensive part of the equation in place with the Skyway (that is electic-powered).  We are very fortunate to have it and it is time for us to start recognizing that.

[Garden guy]

All kidding aside, for some folks, these outrageous and still soaring prices are going to leave the folks who are already struggling desperately to make ends meet, deciding whether to buy a tank of gas for their car , or pay for their prescriptions, or even buy food.  It seems there is no end in sight. I would not pretend to know it all , but I strongly suspect the root of all of this is greed.. and every event that takes place in these foreign countries , an excuse to stick it to us ..

@ $220.00 a barrel.. I can envision the price for the end-user at the pump at $6.00 + a gallon probably more.  and it would not just be gasoline or oil that we pay dearly for , it would be anything made with petroleum.   Its sad and very scary , IMO

Nailed it again Tim...i think many people forget that the "majority" of americans are one paycheck from homeless...it's amazing how shallow most people can be. It's the problem with our society...noone thinks about others or we as a whole....it's just "me me me me".

[Timkin]

Before our very eyes the middle class is being eliminated..   There will be Rich or poor..and no in between.   

you may not notice it now..but wait till it gets to $6.00/gallon.. THEN you will see people really cutting back ..

It is amazing what we think we need .....and what ,in reality we really need and the rising costs of everything is teaching me that lesson..  On less money than I made 3 years ago .

If we have oil resources in the ground in the US , I am not sure that I understand exactly WHY we are buying it from the middle east...and letting every event that takes place there, cost all of us.

[chipwich]

If we have oil resources in the ground in the US , I am not sure that I understand exactly WHY we are buying it from the middle east...and letting every event that takes place there, cost all of us.

I hear this quote quite a bit and it makes a great deal sense.  No one really wants to support a bunch of despotic Middle Eastern regimes that in turn can or may funnel money into dubious and dangerous activities that are not meant to benefit us. 

The truth of the matter is that we buy very little of oil from the middle east (about 7.5% of oil comes from there).

I have attached a link to the Dept of Energy Website that details where our crude oil comes from.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_m.htm

The US uses close to 20 millions barrels of oil per day.  Despite the perceptions otherwise, we use that oil more efficiently than most of the world (but not as efficiently as some European countries).  We produce about 9 million barrels a day and import the other 11 (mostly from Canada, Mexico, and some OPEC nations).

Just to bore you with a lesson on crude.  The crude price you see and read about is WTI (West Texas Intermediate Crude), which is currently trading around $98 a barrel.  This is the most traded crude in the US futures market.  However, what most people do not read about is that we are currently overflowing with WTI crude and we are running very full inventories in the main holding tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma (the main inventory count of crude).  However, a great deal of the world's crude  (especially European crude  and some Middle Eastern crude) is priced as North Sea Brent Crude which is trading at around $112/ barrel, $14 higher than our overflowing WTI crude. 

...so, why did gasoline jump so high this week if we are overflowing with crude?...
....the answer comes down to yet another problem.  Most of the gas we consume here in the gulf states region is priced as Light Louisiana Sweet crude which comes from the Gulf of Mexico and is much easier to refine into gasoline due to its lower sulfur content.  Louisiana Sweet crude is currently trading at about the same price as Brent crude ($112/barrel).

The best way to deal with this problem, which doesn't help any of us right now is to basically keep finding ways to use less oil through conservation.   If we can become 10% more efficient in using oil, then we have to use no middle eastern oil at all.  However, if the rest of the world is going to be swept into Brent crude pricing, then expect that US oil producers will follow suit and traders will bid up the prices anyways.