Alright, it's been so long on the other thread that a lot of those projects have either died or radically changed.
I'm gonna start a new one.
Where do you think the following projects will be by Summer 2030 (five years from now).
Let me know if anything major appears to be missing. Have purposely left out a few that seems like done deals (Oak Steakhouse, Starbucks, etc).
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future:
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign:
Four Seasons:
Metropolitan Park Revamp:
Sports & Entertainment Complex:
Jags Sports Medicine Facility:
MOSH 2.0:
Shipyards West Park:
Shipyards West CRA Private Development:
Jail Relocation:
Convention Center:
Ford on Bay:
Berkman 2:
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2:
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park:
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower:
Bread & Board Repurpose:
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign:
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose:
Laura Street Trio:
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening:
UF Graduate Campus:
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion:
Brightline Jax leg:
Pearl Street District:
Pearl Square Grocery store:
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion:
Jones Bros Furniture:
Ambassador Hotel:
Independent Life Building:
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion:
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development:
Related Southbank Tower:
Friendship Park Restaurant:
Duval County Public Schools Relocation:
Misc
Emerald Trail:
U2C:
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot:
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%):
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%):
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures):
250 story skyscraper conversion; you're kidding and joking right? Trying to see my reaction or bait me in LOL? What was the original proposal (I think from a developer out of Miami), for the former Greyhound Bus Terminal Lot? Thanks.
This is fun. Here are my color-coded predictions. Basically, if the project isn't directly under Shad Kahn or Gateway's control, I don't see a very high chance for the project to have any progress. Unless the project is riverfront park operated by the City.
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Under construction
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Under construction
MOSH 2.0: Under construction
Shipyards West Park: Under construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Vacant
Jail Relocation: Stuck in feasibility report hell
Convention Center: Abandoned
Ford on Bay: Vacant
Berkman 2: Vacant
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Under Construction
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Lol
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Stuck in design mockup hell
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: No change from current status quo
Laura Street Trio: No change from current status quo
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Abandoned
UF Graduate Campus: Zero Actual Construction Progress
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Zero Progress
Brightline Jax leg: Zero Progress
Pearl Street District: Completed and under construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Abandoned
Jones Bros Furniture: Under Construction
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Abandoned
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Abandoned
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: No change from current status quo (only townhomes)
Related Southbank Tower: Abandoned
Friendship Park Restaurant: Under construction
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Moved to suburbs
Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction
U2C: Still Alive
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: No Progess
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 80 percent
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 97 percent
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 75 percent
I don't think Related is abandoned (I hope not). City Council approved $58.79 million dollars in funding along with a completion grant and REV grant. The Developer has until April 30, 2029 to complete construction. Groundbreaking was supposed to happen shortly after funding/REV grant by City Council earlier but only after the bulkhead reconstruction in that area (this was supposed to happen or commence around April 2025). So to the best of my knowledge, it is still a go.
Definitely time for a new one! Thanks for pulling this together. Here's my predictions!
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Under Construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Not Started
Jail Relocation: Not Started
Convention Center: Not Started
Ford on Bay: Under Construction
Berkman 2: Not Started
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Completed
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Not Started
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Not Started
Laura Street Trio: Under Construction
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Not on anyone's radar
UF Graduate Campus: Under Construction. Prime Osborn will still be open at the old train station
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: No, UF will still be building north of Bay. It will take two decades for the LaVilla campus to build-out
Brightline Jax leg: No, at best, Brightline will be under construction with the Tampa leg
Pearl Street District: Completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Under Construction
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Not Started
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Lol nothing will be happening here by 2030.
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Maybe another stick frame apartment complex may be under construction. Whatever it is, it won't match the scale of what's shown in current renderings
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Completed but they'll be in the burbs
Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction through 2035-2040. Full completion by 2030 is a pipe dream
U2C: Bay Street will be all we get. Dudes will still be driving empty vans. Lack of public support and rising costs will kill JTA's expansion dreams
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Will open on the 35th day of Juvember. Need an actual project planned first before predicting construction or completion
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 75%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 98%
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 65%. There will be more retail but the new projects will add extra retail space that will incrementally fill in outside of the 5 year window.
I don't have the insight to 'do' the whole list. So I will just snipe.
Stadium of the Future - completed, but value engineered to look noticeably different from The Renderings
I had no idea the Riverfront Plaza Tower, or even the Related Tower was under construction (I'd better make a trip to DT Jax and see cause its been a minute). Last I heard on Related their replacing, strengthening, etc. the riverfront bulkhead and THEN construction will start. One more question...I thought the "Ford On Bay" project/development was dead? Didn't know that was revived and is under construction. Thanks.
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed and useable, but not everything promised
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Not Started but close to breaking ground.
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started
MOSH 2.0: Not Started
Shipyards West Park: Grassy Field
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Crickets
Jail Relocation: Lots of Talk
Convention Center: Nothing
Ford on Bay: Nothing
Berkman 2: Nothing
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Not Started
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Not Started
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Not Started
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Nothing
Laura Street Trio: Not Started, but new owner with new plans underway
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Nothing
UF Graduate Campus: In Progress, Classes in some buildings, Construction on Some
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Nothing
Brightline Jax leg: Nothing
Pearl Street District: Some Completed, some Under Construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Nothing
Jones Bros Furniture: Under Construction
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Parking Lot
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Under Construction, some units Completed
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Nothing
Misc
Emerald Trail: Part Completed, Part Under Construction, Part Abandoned due to funding
U2C: Abandoned. Talks of Fixing and Extending the Skyway for 400m
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Nothing
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 74%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 80%, but with a ton more units available. Population bigger.
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): 85% also with more space at pearl district, so overall growth
Mine:
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed; no other choice
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed; in this year's CIP
Four Seasons: Completed; getting close
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA
Sports & Entertainment Complex:Not yet under construction. Hope I'm wrong, I think this is the glue that ties that entire end of downtown together, but also not quite sure where the money would come from.
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Abandoned; Baptist seemed fully on board a few years back, but crickets since
MOSH 2.0: In development/budgetary hell; will be a miracle if this one is open by end of decade
Shipyards West Park: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA and through land swap requirements
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: On pause after initial RFP fails to draw compelling proposals
Jail Relocation: Not facility under construction through private partnership; existing jail still open
Convention Center: Not yet started; indecisiveness about a gap plan between closing Prime Osborne and building a new convention center down the road leads to a period where no proper convention center exists in Jacksonville
Ford on Bay: One of the hardest to predict. Stick frames nearing completion.
Berkman 2: Big project announced, then no action for years.
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Completed; budgeted for, required through CBA
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed within the next 12 months
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under construction, with similar design & incentives discussed this year
Bread & Board Repurpose: A couple of different restaurants churn through
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Completed, with claustrophobic, problematic design proposed last year
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Completed; DIA shifting $4 million into it should help.
Laura Street Trio: Not started; new ownership, same problems.
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Abandoned.
UF Graduate Campus: Open with limited students, no new construction completed. Questions about promise vs. delivery.
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Under construction.
Brightline Jax leg: Brightline's future in question; no progress
Pearl Street District: Large chunk completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Open as a Publix
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Demolished after unsuccessful attempt to attract developer for conversion; surface parking
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Still on prolonged pause
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Being reimagined by developer as 500-stories; paid surface parking lot to remain open during "visioning period"
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Hotel + stick frame apartments under construction
Related Southbank Tower: Completed, or nearly completed
Friendship Park Restaurant: Abandoned
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Not started
Misc
Emerald Trail: 50% complete, with value engineering, but still coming along nicely
U2C: Bay Street + One expansion; average daily ridership < 100
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: 1,000th feasibility student underway
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 68%
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 90%, with the reduction coming from extra premium inventory
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures):
[/quote] 70%, with healthy retail growth via new construction, and continued churn/attrition with existing stock
Quote from: heights unknown on July 22, 2025, 05:43:27 PM
I don't think Related is abandoned (I hope not). City Council approved $58.79 million dollars in funding along with a completion grant and REV grant. The Developer has until April 30, 2029 to complete construction. Groundbreaking was supposed to happen shortly after funding/REV grant by City Council earlier but only after the bulkhead reconstruction in that area (this was supposed to happen or commence around April 2025). So to the best of my knowledge, it is still a go.
Yes, Related is still on schedule.
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Not Started/ Something else proposed
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Nothing
Shipyards West CRA Private Nothing
Jail Relocation: Ongoing battle between politicians
Convention Center: Ongoing battle between politicians
Ford on Bay: Nothing
Berkman 2: Nothing
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Done
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Done
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Not sure what this is.
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Given Pearl St. Something planned
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Honestly, no idea
Laura Street Trio: Please, something other than the status quo
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: Nothing
UF Graduate Campus: In Progress, Classes in some buildings, Construction starting
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Nothing
Brightline Jax leg: Nothing with no plan of expansion after Tampa
Pearl Street District: Some Completed, some Under Construction
Pearl Square Grocery store: Completed
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Five different proposals
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Completed
Independent Life Building: Completed
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 9000-story skyscraper conversion on top of surface parking lot
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: All becomes all townhomes
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: Ongoing battle between politicians and School goes to suburbs
Misc
Emerald Trail: Part Completed, Part Under Construction, Some scaled back, Part Abandoned due to funding
U2C: Abandoned, Nat Ford forced retirement, Skyway demolished, and no talk about fixed transit for another 150 years
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Nothing, no talk about fixed transit for another 150 years
Add Brooklyn:
Block Nine: Under Construction
Riverside Office Buildling Retail Bay: Under Construction
You left out one significant project: I-95 and I-10. My prediction: Never ending construction. Other streets: Nothing done.
U2C: Has become a major scandal still being discussed and investigated. Abandoned Skyway track up for debate: convert to a highline-type project or tear it down.
JTA: Nat Ford has moved on, leaving another stain on JTA's long legacy of wasteful, mismanaged and/or worthless projects. Talk is about reinventing JTA given it is a failed agency.
City Council: People fed up with partisan grandstanding, turn over the Council and finally elect moderate, collaborative, thoughtful, bi-partisan or non-partisan, civic minded council members... NOT! City government still in political limbo.
Mayor: Donna Deegan re-elected despite her agenda being held back by partisan City Council majority.
Super Bowl: Jax awarded another one due to City's growth and the rebuilt stadium provided the City has bothered to preserve adequate public spaces for 6 figure crowds. Not a sure thing.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 23, 2025, 11:30:39 PM
You left out one significant project: I-95 and I-10. My prediction: Never ending construction. Other streets: Nothing done.
U2C: Has become a major scandal still being discussed and investigated. Abandoned Skyway track up for debate: convert to a highline-type project or tear it down.
JTA: Nat Ford has moved on, leaving another stain on JTA's long legacy of wasteful, mismanaged and/or worthless projects. Talk is about reinventing JTA given it is a failed agency.
City Council: People fed up with partisan grandstanding, turn over the Council and finally elect moderate, collaborative, thoughtful, bi-partisan or non-partisan, civic minded council members... NOT! City government still in political limbo.
Mayor: Donna Deegan re-elected despite her agenda being held back by partisan City Council majority.
Super Bowl: Jax awarded another one due to City's growth and the rebuilt stadium provided the City has bothered to preserve adequate public spaces for 6 figure crowds. Not a sure thing.
Funny you made the last point. I think most of these projects will push through if we do get a second chance to host the SB. The city wouldn't want to repeat its last experience - hotel rooms, restaurant and lack of nightlife etc. With the residential population potentially to rise to the 10k lucky number, I think we'll see more investors coming into the area - especially if a SB is awarded. 2032 is my prediction. It gives them enough time to make the entertainment district a true entertainment district. Also, not sure about Lot J, but I'm sure sometime soon Iguana LLC will disclose their renderings for the fairgrounds.
Lastly, any predictions on whether the "Ford on Bay" marina will get built?
^
Quote from: MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain on July 23, 2025, 11:56:22 PM
Lastly, any predictions on whether the "Ford on Bay" marina will get built?
My prediction: Only the first phase of the marina will be completed.
I guess the block n8 will start construction anywhere from September to December since it was mentioned it would start in the fall and that construction of the parking garage for the ambassador will be in September and block n5 for the lighthouse garage will happen after construction of the ambassador garage. What happened to the grocer and 16 story bryan said on may 29 that possibly in a week there would be a announcement of it and now almost 2 months nothing did something happen with the grocer. And what was that development picture around the campus building?
(https://i.postimg.cc/McdhvJpr/IMG-5153.png) (https://postimg.cc/McdhvJpr)
(https://i.postimg.cc/94W6mQC7/IMG-5322.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/94W6mQC7)
Quote from: Skybox111 on July 24, 2025, 05:21:51 PM
I guess the block n8 will start construction anywhere from September to December since it was mentioned it would start in the fall and that construction of the parking garage for the ambassador will be in September and block n5 for the lighthouse garage will happen after construction of the ambassador garage. What happened to the grocer and 16 story bryan said on may 29 that possibly in a week there would be a announcement of it and now almost 2 months nothing did something happen with the grocer. And what was that development picture around the campus building?
(https://i.postimg.cc/McdhvJpr/IMG-5153.png) (https://postimg.cc/McdhvJpr)
(https://i.postimg.cc/94W6mQC7/IMG-5322.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/94W6mQC7)
Fort what it's worth, I had heard that the announcement was coming last week. Didn't happen, but it's gotta be any time now. And if it isn't, I'd assume they're just waiting for the right time to announce it. The relationship is there. The DIA incentive package in place for the grocer has already been drafted. Can't imagine such an important cornerstone of the entire district would fall through randomly after all this work. Fingers crossed we hear something soon.
Hope so too.
It's coming!
From rumors, Publix sounds to be the likely grocer. With Publix in Riverside and San Marco, now, this would seem an obvious next step. Downtown, Springfield, Brooklyn, Eastside, Rail Yard... lots of under-served and/or nearby residents to tap provided free parking is around (JTA isn't going to get you there :( ).
And, with Fresh Market and Whole Foods in nearby Brooklyn and SE Grocers downtown already, really not any other likely candidates. I guess maybe an Aldi but with their limited lines, that doesn't seem very satisfying if no other full line grocers are nearby (not counting the SE Grocer's store that may also have limited lines).
The Harvey's downtown is being converted to an Aldi as we speak. Good news coming soon.
Quote from: JaxGator22 on July 26, 2025, 06:44:23 PM
The Harvey's downtown is being converted to an Aldi as we speak. Good news coming soon.
Just another sign pointing to Publix ;D.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 26, 2025, 06:31:29 PM
From rumors, Publix sounds to be the likely grocer. With Publix in Riverside and San Marco, now, this would seem an obvious next step. Downtown, Springfield, Brooklyn, Eastside, Rail Yard... lots of under-served and/or nearby residents to tap provided free parking is around (JTA isn't going to get you there :( ).
And, with Fresh Market and Whole Foods in nearby Brooklyn and SE Grocers downtown already, really not any other likely candidates. I guess maybe an Aldi but with their limited lines, that doesn't seem very satisfying if no other full line grocers are nearby (not counting the SE Grocer's store that may also have limited lines).
Publix to Pearl District has been one of the worst kept secrets of the last few years. Not sure they've ever had anyone else in mind. The DIA incentive package for the Pearl District stipulates a grocer with a pharmacy and full deli, which would eliminate pretty much every Southeast grocery chain except Publix. Maybe the biggest win for the CBD of the last 50 years if it crosses the finished line.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on July 27, 2025, 10:16:44 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 26, 2025, 06:31:29 PM
From rumors, Publix sounds to be the likely grocer. With Publix in Riverside and San Marco, now, this would seem an obvious next step. Downtown, Springfield, Brooklyn, Eastside, Rail Yard... lots of under-served and/or nearby residents to tap provided free parking is around (JTA isn't going to get you there :( ).
And, with Fresh Market and Whole Foods in nearby Brooklyn and SE Grocers downtown already, really not any other likely candidates. I guess maybe an Aldi but with their limited lines, that doesn't seem very satisfying if no other full line grocers are nearby (not counting the SE Grocer's store that may also have limited lines).
Publix to Pearl District has been one of the worst kept secrets of the last few years. Not sure they've ever had anyone else in mind. The DIA incentive package for the Pearl District stipulates a grocer with a pharmacy and full deli, which would eliminate pretty much every Southeast grocery chain except Publix. Maybe the biggest win for the CBD of the last 50 years if it crosses the finished line.
Awesome; NOW. Answer this (someone) please. What's the "straight skinny" about this 16 story building? Is this building for the UF Campus or a part of or related to something in the Pearl District? Thanks!
^Must be something related to Pearl Street. There are no 16-story buildings planned for the UF campus at the moment.
Quote from: heights unknown on July 27, 2025, 12:39:25 PMAwesome; NOW. Answer this (someone) please. What's the "straight skinny" about this 16 story building? Is this building for the UF Campus or a part of or related to something in the Pearl District? Thanks!
The grocery store/residential project was initially slated to be elsewhere in the Pearl District, if memory serves correctly.
The project will now replace the NoCo Center that house Beyond Van Gogh (formerly First Baptist's main auditorium.
(https://media.yourobserver.com/img/photos/2022/10/18/405974_standard_t900x600.jpeg)
The plan includes a 16-story residential tower with 250 units; a 31,500 square foot full-service grocery store with pharmacy, bakery, and deli; 6,500 feet of additional ground floor retail; and 400 spaces of structured parking.
Probably the closest analogy would be the Lake Eola Publix in Orlando, which is around 30,000 square feet with 17-stories of residential above it and Truist bank on the back. Key difference will be that the grocery store and retail tower will be connected, but separate (versus residential above the grocery store).
(https://snipboard.io/HoUkdr.jpg)
The Publix in Water Street that Moll's group developed is a smaller 26,000 square foot Greenwise Publix, with dual residential towers. The first tower has 26-stories, and the second tower that was later added has 21-stories. Key similarity here is a lot of the structured parking will be placed above the Publix, per Gateway's plan.
(https://snipboard.io/qxdBbL.jpg)
Publix's real estate folks should get an A+ for doing more for their growth than even the operators of the stores. Publix is everywhere you want to be, nabbing all the prime spots wherever they go. Few multi-unit retailers of any kind hit as many location homeruns as Publix does in my observation. Their willingness to creatively adapt store size, architecture, infrastructure, layouts, etc. is also a strength.
Hope putting the parking garage over the building fares better than what happened at JIA a few months ago or at St. Vincent's a few years ago. ;D
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 27, 2025, 02:05:01 PM
Publix's real estate folks should get an A+ for doing more for their growth than even the operators of the stores. Publix is everywhere you want to be, nabbing all the prime spots wherever they go. Few multi-unit retailers of any kind hit as many location homeruns as Publix does in my observation. There willingness to creatively adapt store size, architecture, infrastructure, layouts, etc. is also a strength.
Agreed! The "mystery grocer" played a big part in the specific location decision for the project. It was initially planned to be elsewhere within the Pearl District, but the mystery grocery felt strongly that the Baptist site was perfect for the project, due to the Laura Street location and proximity to State and Union.
^ Publix's brand strength and value adding legitimacy to a shopping area have given them the leverage to hold out for what they want, where they want, when they want (see San Marco). Process and repeat, it just keeps building on itself.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 27, 2025, 03:06:34 PM
^ Publix's brand strength and value adding legitimacy to a shopping area...
^EXACTLY why I think Publix could be the "get" that makes retail and residential explode in the surrounding blocks.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2025/aug/05/council-president-kevin-carrico-new-buyer-interested-in-laura-street-trio/ (https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2025/aug/05/council-president-kevin-carrico-new-buyer-interested-in-laura-street-trio/)
Outside Jax potential buyer to get this going. Hopefully it doesn't stall again. But don't think they would announce unless it was for certain. Would be nice to see these get done. Recently saw some pics of inside and the architecture is unreal. They sure didn't build them like they used to. This one is long overdue - hopefully it gets over that hurdle to bring hotel/residency.
^ In the same First Coast Connect interview today, Carrico confirmed the Hard Rock Hotel folks are the ones looking at the Berkman II site.
Was sad to hear him also defend his hardline ways with those who disagree with him, whether the Mayor or fellow City Council members. I didn't detect any interest on his part to be conciliatory, be the bigger guy, mend fences, be collaborative, reach across the aisle, or tolerate those that get in front of his vision for the City but, rather, to be vengeful and petty. Hard to believe he works with the Boys and Girls Clubs. I hope those kids are not looking to him as an example of good leadership. He sounded more like he thought he was the Mayor vs. the real Mayor.
When asked about the contrast between his vision of the City Council having the power vs. the City's executive branch vs. his party's view on the national level that the executive branch should have the power, he ducked the answer. I thought this was hypocritical.
Former Mayor Lenny Curry also called in to sing Carrico's praises and Carrico went out of his way to say he converses with Curry at least weekly. A mutual admiration and interesting insight into the Curry political machine that appears to still be alive and kicking. Wonder how many other Council puppets Curry is pulling the strings on and whether Curry might make make another run for mayor again one day.
Jax has a long way to go to get elected officials that want to put childish partisanship aside and truly serve all citizens of this city, and not just for today, but for the future.
Regency Center and its 260 employees moving to 7 Pines from the Wells Fargo tower. Another loss for Downtown. Add to Citizens and HD Supply, just in the last few months.
QuoteRegency Centers moving HQ from Downtown to The Village at Seven Pines
The Jacksonville-based developer's CEO said the move embeds "our people within best-in-class, flagship developments." Publix will anchor it.
....Industry market reports show that office vacancy on the Downtown Northbank, the location of 1 Independent Square, was about 26% as of June 30, 2025....
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2025/aug/08/regency-centers-moving-hq-from-downtown-to-the-village-at-seven-pines/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 08, 2025, 04:28:15 PM
Regency Center and its 260 employees moving to 7 Pines from the Wells Fargo tower. Another loss for Downtown. Add to Citizens and HD Supply, just in the last few months.
Sad, but this may be a special case as Regency owns the property, right? They're leasing it to themselves? If that's true, they're certainly saving some money, and it's not a downtown-specific thing, they're just moving somewhere with free rent. I may be misunderstanding what Regency does though lol
^ My point is regardless of the reason, it is another loss for Downtown.
Reading between the lines, it appears to me that the convenience for their employees working in the burbs may be at play here, even if they don't explicitly admit it. Same as all the other departures.
Regency owns hundreds of shopping centers, so why is this one any more special than others? Do you really think their employees are going to talk to Publix via this single store or deal with the Publix real estate department at corporate HQ's in Lakeland regarding leasing/developing dozens of sites for Publix?
I am sure many of their operations people travel continuously nationwide to their properties so what is there to gain by being adjacent to this one? Regency also developed the Publix in San Marco so why didn't they consider the Southbank or San Marco area?
Let's face it , 7 Pines is centrally located to the Southside and Beaches and adjacent to JTB and I-295 Beltway. Hard to beat that spot for appealing to a white collar workforce. Thus, my suspicions.
I am starting to come around to the idea that high rises are more for apartments, condos, hotels and professional service/boutique offices. Larger corporate work forces on expensive multiple small-plate floors with added expensive parking arrangements in a world of corporate cost cutting and workforce shortages seems to be less appealing today than ever. May be a few exceptions (e.g. CSX & Vystar, who have in common owning their buildings, not leasing, and with adequate parking to match), but no longer the rule.
^Its another loss for downtown unfortunately.
QuoteRegency owns hundreds of shopping centers, so why is this one any more special than others? Do you really think their employees are going to talk to Publix via this single store or deal with the Publix real estate department at corporate HQ's in Lakeland regarding leasing/developing dozens of sites for Publix?
Speaking of Publix, that company is quite the opposite when it comes to investing in Lakeland's downtown revitalization efforts. Although their corporate headquarters have always been in the burbs, they've intentionally moved some corporate functions to vacant downtown buildings and invested significantly in downtown's public spaces. Downtown Jax could really benefit from major local companies taking a Publix-like approach in being wanting to be a part of the downtown revitalization effort as opposed to a negative.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 08, 2025, 05:22:13 PM
I am sure many of their operations people travel continuously nationwide to their properties so what is there to gain by being adjacent to this one? Regency also developed the Publix in San Marco so why didn't they consider the Southbank or San Marco area?
They also have a retail center in Brooklyn. If they really wanted to be downtown, they could make it happen.
QuoteLet's face it , 7 Pines is centrally located to the Southside and Beaches and adjacent to JTB and I-295 Beltway. Hard to beat that spot for appealing to a white collar workforce. Thus, my suspicions.
Although the home prices are crazy for the product being built, when it comes to new master planned suburban developments, 7 Pines is about the best as they come in metropolitan Jacksonville. From a design perspective, much better than Nocatee, Oakleaf, Wildlight, Palencia, Bartram Park, etc.
Regency is what it is, and is the result of too many false promises made over the years with too little tangible progress when the time came to reevaluate headquarters location. Lot of progress being made now, and lot of important building blocks being put in place. But, we might continue to see attrition in the interim while we wait for that to pay off. Unfortunate, but I think we're heading in a really good direction.
Regency looked at other spaces available downtown, but nothing met their criteria. I don't blame them for wanting to get out of the Wells Fargo Building. From the porte-cochere almost collapsing from water damage and neglect to the bland half finished lobby, to the sparse retail and no amenities on the first floor. The River Club up top is nice, but doesn't make that building worth it. Plus, most of the dining around there has closed or been bulldozed by COJ in 2019. If their lease ended in 3 years it might be a different story with everything proposed for the area, but it's understandable that they'd be skeptical at the moment. That and most executives and other employees live toward the beach or in SJC.
^ The rebuilt lobby in the Wells Fargo tower is an abomination. It is cold, lifeless and serves no function other than as a sterile elevator lobby. Why they took out the wonderful and trademarked greenery/plantings/trees/water features of the original lobby is beyond me. I liked the wood paneling they used to have but I think all that may remain is in the elevators. Guess it was too expensive to redo those or they just ran out of money. I also recall the escalators to the mezzanine being "out of order" for a long time - not sure if they are back in service or still there.
To add, I don't understand the lack of any retail or other active areas around the lobby. At one time, the building had a large cafeteria opening into the lobby, a bank branch, jeweler, ice cream shop, etc. and an upscale restaurant (Tree Top in deference to the lobby trees) on the mezzanine. Other than the River Club, I don't recall seeing even a small sandwich shop there today. There are much smaller buildings around with more amenities, character and flair.
This building may need a new owner to better manage it. I wonder what the vacancy rate is today compared to other Downtown towers? It seems I have read about others moving out of the building and I know Wells Fargo has cut their space by 50% or more plus closed their lobby branch (hence, the removal of their name).
If they build a new tower on the Landing site that blocks part of the river view from this building, I imagine it may be even harder to lease out the building.
Sad to see a skyline icon falling backwards.
I feel corporations are the last group we should be focusing on for Downtown revitalization. They are the most vulnerable to shifting out when it comes to leases ending, buyouts, mergers etc. Residential, hospitality, entertainment, civic institutions, transportation should be the focus IMO. They are also the worst by a country mile for caving into the demands of panicky suburban employees.
That said, there is a very concerning trend in Jax of most major employers following like sheep to soulless convenient office parks in the Southside. However the key to to me is creating a unique walkable environment that sprawl crap cannot provide.
Any inclination on what's going in the fairgrounds once they move? I'm suspecting an entertainment district with condos, retail, and restaurant/ bar. But I'd be open to others thoughts/ speculations or if there's any factual information to share - seeing that That Bar has been re-announced. Didn't want to take away from that post.
I've been remiss! Here's my take:
Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Under Construction
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Under Construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Not Started
Jail Relocation: Not Started
Convention Center: Not Started
Ford on Bay: Under Construction
Berkman 2: Not Started
CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Completed
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Design Completed, Perhaps Under Construction
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Sold, perhaps Under Construction
Laura Street Trio: Under Construction
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: In the conversation
UF Graduate Campus: Parts Under Construction; the rest moving forward; Convention Center still operating or recently closed
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Planning be moving forward
Brightline Jax leg: Not Started, but in the conversation
Pearl Street District: Completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Under Construction
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Sold, perhaps Under Construction
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Under Construction
Independent Life Building: Under Construction
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Lol nothing will be happening here by 2030.
Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Some Construction and certain elements complete
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: No Comment
Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction; Segments Consistently Finished
U2C: No Comment
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Not Started
Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 70-80% due to ongoing fluctuations
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 96% or better
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): Current retail frontage will increasingly fill in, with more frontage added through other projects.
Being a long-time Arlington resident, I can't see the name of that Southbank development at the old JEA site, and not think of an apartment complex just north of JU - Rivers Edge (now the Tree House Apartments).
And now, back to your regularly scheduled discussion