With construction underway on the final Phase 2 expansion to DeLand, FDOT is now hard at work on planning the next phase of SunRail: Polk County.
They've now held a virtual workshop: https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/
They've also already completed an alternatives analysis that proposes initially expanding 16 miles to Haines City before later expanding into Lakeland. There don't seem to be details yet on how exactly such an expansion would work with CSX, especially given the known concerns the closer to Tampa one gets. Additionally, there are some potential questions as far as how Polk County would join SunRail, but presumably those are questions they have time to answer, especially since the expected start of operations at this time is 2035.
A Lakeland extension isn't a terrible idea but they should really work on increasing frequency, expanding operating hours (literally no weekend service), and redeveloping their park-and-ride lots. That would do way more to increase ridership than a Lakeland extension would assuming they continue to run just 20 trains daily M-F.
Curious, at what point does commuter rail become intercity rail? I guess large city commuter trains travel some distance out. Who goes out the farthest?
If Jax ever got on board (pun intended!), what range would one think we might go one day? Beyond Baldwin/Macclenny/Sanderson, Yulee/Fernandina, St. Augustine/Southern St. Johns County, Middleburg/Green Cove Springs/Palatka?
Jax is unique with the county/city being the same. The two train types you mentioned are often on different types of rail or have different design requirements and only in some areas do they share track like you are mentioning. Regardless, I think the two most viable routes right now are DT Jax - Jax Beach & DT Jax - St. Augustine by volume today. Anything else likely can't sustain the ridership to make it happen. Maybe the Yulee route if they could utilize existing rail.
There was a study completed 14 years ago that said commuter rail was feasible from Downtown to St Augustine, Fernandina Beach, and Green Cove Springs. Jax Beach wasn't included in the study (no existing rail corridor) but I don't think you need a study to know that such a line is feasible. An automated light metro down the median of Beach Blvd would change that entire corridor.
These are the projects JTA should be focusing on, but I guess that would make too much sense.
True, I could see a Green Cove Spring corridor working as well.
Quote from: iMarvin on June 28, 2023, 05:46:18 PM
A Lakeland extension isn't a terrible idea but they should really work on increasing frequency, expanding operating hours (literally no weekend service), and redeveloping their park-and-ride lots. That would do way more to increase ridership than a Lakeland extension would assuming they continue to run just 20 trains daily M-F.
To be fair, it's different levels of financial commitment that go into simply doing planning work (mostly FDOT or the TPO right now) vs having to fund actually running trains on additional days, or building the infrastructure or buying the rolling stock to run more frequently (requires the counties to agree to fund by that much, which Orange County failed to do last year). They also got screwed by having to go with locomotives instead of DMUs a decade ago and now they're committed to doing so. I totally agree that they should do it, but there are definitely challenges involved.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 28, 2023, 06:40:43 PM
Curious, at what point does commuter rail become intercity rail? I guess large city commuter trains travel some distance out. Who goes out the farthest?
If Jax ever got on board (pun intended!), what range would one think we might go one day? Beyond Baldwin/Macclenny/Sanderson, Yulee/Fernandina, St. Augustine/Southern St. Johns County, Middleburg/Green Cove Springs/Palatka?
In theory, at a certain scale you end up essentially running different levels of service, especially with more complex systems that include express trains like in the northeast. The furthest is probably the Long Island Rail Road, which runs a service that goes from New York City all the way out to Montauk at the tip of Long Island.
In Jacksonville's case, while I would love for a truly regional system that goes as far as Lake City or even Tallahassee, Gainesville, South Georgia (perhaps even Savannah), Palatka or DeLand to connect with SunRail, Palm Coast or Daytona Beach; the realistic extent is probably about what you said. But you've got to crawl before you can walk or run, and to walk here means actually moving a rail plan forward instead of getting JTA study after JTA study.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 28, 2023, 06:54:16 PM
Jax is unique with the county/city being the same. The two train types you mentioned are often on different types of rail or have different design requirements and only in some areas do they share track like you are mentioning. Regardless, I think the two most viable routes right now are DT Jax - Jax Beach & DT Jax - St. Augustine by volume today. Anything else likely can't sustain the ridership to make it happen. Maybe the Yulee route if they could utilize existing rail.
Actually, commuter rail (like SunRail or Tri-Rail) and intercity rail (like Amtrak or Brightline) are perhaps the most similar two of any kind of passenger rail. The main difference is level of comfort rather than real engineering or design distinctions. All the places jaxlongtimer mentioned are easily accessible by improving existing freight tracks to passenger service quality and purchasing passenger trains to run on them, just like SunRail did. The only real hitch is having to redo the S-Line alignment so that trains can reach the old train station downtown instead of building a separate terminal on the east side.
Quote from: iMarvin on June 28, 2023, 07:17:43 PM
There was a study completed 14 years ago that said commuter rail was feasible from Downtown to St Augustine, Fernandina Beach, and Green Cove Springs. Jax Beach wasn't included in the study (no existing rail corridor) but I don't think you need a study to know that such a line is feasible. An automated light metro down the median of Beach Blvd would change that entire corridor.
These are the projects JTA should be focusing on, but I guess that would make too much sense.
Ironically Beach Blvd used to have a rail line, it's just been gone for close to 90 years now. We do already have the First Coast Flyer "bus rapid transit" that goes between downtown and the beach, but the obvious problem is that it's such a distance that BRT is obviously unsuited for without expensive investment in speed increases that you might as well make for rail. I absolutely agree, a combination of rezoning (so that Beach Blvd doesn't look like a highway) and fast, grade-separated (or at least dedicated-laned) rail transit would be a huge deal, and it's a shame we seem unwilling to think like that compared to throwing hundreds of millions at autonomous vehicles.
A very obvious problem in Jacksonville is that we all know this city is huge but for whatever reason we keep choosing the slowest possible options for transportation needs unless it's for cars. It's all 30mph (or less!) automated transit lines or mixed traffic buses, meanwhile we turn roads into 80mph highways and 60mph arterials.
I hear ya Marcus but I disagree. Speed ratings impact the rail layout, setbacks, types & density of road crossings.. etc. Electrification vs not (I think only the NEC is electrified - I know more are to come) is another big one too. Given the green energy wave we have going on, most commuter rail is electric (or going to be) vs. diesel for intercity. I think in JAX the lines are blurry since we are so spread out.. the idea of electrifying something here is not likely due to cost - and again sharing track with all diesel cargo rail.. not what the "big guys" would want to allow.
Hence why I am under the personal opinion that a commuter rail to the beaches is the Step 1. I'm sure some would disagree but cleaning up beach blvd and putting in some type of rail would do a lot for the city itself IMO.
Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.
Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.
Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.
I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.
For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 09:58:07 AM
Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.
Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.
Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.
I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.
For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.
Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable. However, out of all the options we have.. that route would provide the highest social & private development return.. in terms of Jacksonville proper. With a rail or LRT project, you could actually qualify for federal funds. Do some TOD studies & they will split the cost of the actual project down the road. Literally not possible today in Jacksonville.
The other routes benefit the surrounding communities more than Jacksonville. A matter of perspective I guess.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 08:43:51 AM
I hear ya Marcus but I disagree. Speed ratings impact the rail layout, setbacks, types & density of road crossings.. etc. Electrification vs not (I think only the NEC is electrified - I know more are to come) is another big one too. Given the green energy wave we have going on, most commuter rail is electric (or going to be) vs. diesel for intercity. I think in JAX the lines are blurry since we are so spread out.. the idea of electrifying something here is not likely due to cost - and again sharing track with all diesel cargo rail.. not what the "big guys" would want to allow.
Hence why I am under the personal opinion that a commuter rail to the beaches is the Step 1. I'm sure some would disagree but cleaning up beach blvd and putting in some type of rail would do a lot for the city itself IMO.
Speed ratings can definitely have an impact but that usually doesn't start until above 79mph when it comes to passenger rail. Both Beach Blvd and the southward freight rail lines are incredibly straight so I don't anticipate that being a problem. In 2006 the state evaluated those lines and said they could support 110mph trains with relatively minor upgrades, similar to what Brightline has done between West Palm Beach and Cocoa. 79 is pretty fast for light rail (vs something like an elevated metro rail system) but say, 50mph with signal priority (which we already have on Beach Blvd) is absolutely doable.
Electrification is usually great, but hard to do. American freight rail companies, unlike their European and Asian counterparts, are stringently opposed to electrification despite the benefits. Electrified commuter rail is pretty rare compared to diesel systems, with the only new cases recently being San Francisco and Denver. Light rail is almost always electrified, mainly because it's almost always on dedicated corridors. The one exception is the River Line in New Jersey. The central issue of mode here is that commuter rail is much heavier than light rail, and you don't really gain anything from undergoing the expense to build brand new commuter rail line on Beach vs a light rail, even if it's like Seattle where you have mixed at-grade and elevated portions.
I do agree that rail to the beaches is a good idea, provided we are going to make the necessary zoning changes to actually support that kind of expense (the fact we haven't so far after spending over $30 million on the First Coast Flyer isn't a good sign). I've debated before if we should perhaps consider putting a rail line on Atlantic instead of Beach since we already have the federally-funded bus line on Beach. But either way, that line doesn't actually need to be commuter rail with mainline-sized rail cars. The only reason to do that is because of trains that may end up on freight lines, like the FEC or CSX lines to St. Augustine or Green Cove Springs.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 09:58:07 AM
Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.
Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.
Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.
I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.
For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.
Cities have definitely spent as much money on worse quality light rail corridors, at least we have the infill opportunity. I think the challenge there is that any light rail system would almost certainly be constrained to the east side of town until either the Matthews or perhaps Hart bridges were rebuilt with rails. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's critical to consider in justifying such a system.
Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/43572ee892264d9aa1df6dc1c72e6a24) they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.
Amtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.
What we critically need right now is for leadership that is actually interested in making this happen and doing the work that goes into it. Getting the actual environmental study of the rail corridors ready, formally selecting and purchasing station sites, signing the track access agreements. These are things SunRail's backers were doing in 2007 in order to have a rail system running seven years later, and despite originally being interested in 2008 we've done none of that. We don't actually have to wait for one massive Full Funding Grant Agreement from the FTA either, we can work with the railways to progressively improve their tracks sooner rather than later, we can get RAISE grants for station development, things of that nature. But we have to be willing to be creative and focused in doing it. If we don't at least get this ball rolling now, while we have federal dollars out there, we're going to be in the wilderness for a while. There is so much work we can be doing that we've just chosen not to, and we're paying for that vacuum with billions of dollars going to highway expansion instead.
I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!
I agree! We need those changes badly. We've seen other places build the infrastructure but it's also about the environment to support getting those things built so people can get around. This new administration has a chance to make that happen but they have to actually do it.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 11:39:40 AM
Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.
I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.
QuoteHowever, out of all the options we have.. that route would provide the highest social & private development return.. in terms of Jacksonville proper.
A small urban core starter makes sense IF talking LRT. There's also an argument to go streetcar. Both are better local alternatives than the U2C, IMO. Commuter rail and intercity rail are different operations that serve different purposes.
QuoteWith a rail or LRT project, you could actually qualify for federal funds. Do some TOD studies & they will split the cost of the actual project down the road. Literally not possible today in Jacksonville.
All are eligible for federal fund, if made a priority. Unfortunately, we've decided to put our credibility on the line with the U2C.
QuoteThe other routes benefit the surrounding communities more than Jacksonville. A matter of perspective I guess.
Commuter rail and intercity are regional operations, so yes, they'd benefit more than just Jax proper.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 11:55:00 AM
Cities have definitely spent as much money on worse quality light rail corridors, at least we have the infill opportunity. I think the challenge there is that any light rail system would almost certainly be constrained to the east side of town until either the Matthews or perhaps Hart bridges were rebuilt with rails. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's critical to consider in justifying such a system.
I'm not aware of an American city that started off with their first LRT phase being 20 miles of straight suburbia. Especially since the 1980s. That's a plus billion dollar investment right off the bat. Places like San Diego, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, Charlotte, Norfolk, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, etc. all started off with smaller segments in their densest environments (or tying large pedestrian oriented destinations together at end points) before expanding significantly through suburbia. If Jax were to follow their path, it would start off with something linking DT to a few neighborhoods like Riverside and San Marco (coordinated with intensifying adjacent infill development density) before expanding as far out as a destination like Jax Beach. Our comparable would be replacing the U2C with a LRT or streetcar system connecting the same neighborhoods, then expanding out over time.
This would be mutually exclusive of commuter rail or intercity rail opportunities.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 12:11:04 PM
I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!
The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 11:55:00 AM
Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/43572ee892264d9aa1df6dc1c72e6a24) they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.
Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.
QuoteAmtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.
FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.
QuoteWhat we critically need right now is for leadership that is actually interested in making this happen and doing the work that goes into it.
I agree here.
QuoteThere is so much work we can be doing that we've just chosen not to, and we're paying for that vacuum with billions of dollars going to highway expansion instead.
I agree here. Start off by just getting the Amtrak station back downtown.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:18:38 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 12:11:04 PM
I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!
The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.
LOL so true!! Incredibly frustrating to hear how the skyway is worthless when the zoning wasn't there to keep up. Not trying to say it's amazing but they left that thing to die.
In terms of the TOD funding I mentioned, that funding is outside of any transit designated funds and those actually support for-profit development. (https://www.transportation.gov/buildamerica/TIFIA49). These benefits are all not eligible to be used in Jacksonville.
Why would TOD projects at existing Skyway stations not be eligible, if they meet the minimal requirements?
Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.
Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:18:38 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 12:11:04 PM
I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!
The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.
We spent one million dollars in federal taxpayer money on a TOD study for the U2C, which includes all of the existing Skyway stations, and yet I can't really tell you what it's actually productively resulted in, physically or even legally in terms of zoning codes. JTA can try to claim Artea but like, come on.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:09:48 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 11:39:40 AM
Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.
I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.
Ironically, I think the best place for a starter line is currently featured on another thread right now. The S-Line up through Gateway passes through areas that are ripe for investment and development (including the Phoenix Arts District, also being talked about in another thread!) and is right under 5 miles. This assumes we make the appropriate zoning changes to allow for more density along the route. I imagine this would be easier and cheaper to build than a starter line in Riverside or San Marco.
Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.
If anyone is wondering what automate light metro is, Honolulu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyline_(Honolulu)) is opening their system tomorrow. It's had delays but I think the investment will be worth it, if they're able to get it downtown.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 02:26:20 PM
Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.
Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.
So self sabotage on our end with the Skyway/U2C. Very unfortunate. I wonder how many people in town know how we screw ourselves over?
Quote from: iMarvin on June 29, 2023, 02:29:24 PM
Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.
Simply rebranding and upgrading the Skyway is the easiest and lowest hanging fruit we have to improving fixed transit in this town. Unfortunately, JTA is the biggest obstacle to it and literally everything else transit related. I have very little confidence in JTA pulling any type of commuter rail, LRT, streetcar, etc. off in my lifetime. As such, even Amtrak on its worst day will be more competent and more likely to pull something off Jax related. No matter what people think of them, they do exist, have done it before, and desire to expand in Florida. The stumbling block is Tallahassee. That place changes every 4 to 8 years, so the direction FDOT sways today could be very different in a few years.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:27:17 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 11:55:00 AM
Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/43572ee892264d9aa1df6dc1c72e6a24) they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.
Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.
QuoteAmtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.
FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.
I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.
FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 02:41:08 PM
I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.
FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.
FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. For transit projects. Ongoing operations and maintenance costs of new or expanded highways do not even get a flicker of consideration at FDOT.
Quote from: iMarvin on June 29, 2023, 02:29:24 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:09:48 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 11:39:40 AM
Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.
I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.
Ironically, I think the best place for a starter line is currently featured on another thread right now. The S-Line up through Gateway passes through areas that are ripe for investment and development (including the Phoenix Arts District, also being talked about in another thread!) and is right under 5 miles. This assumes we make the appropriate zoning changes to allow for more density along the route. I imagine this would be easier and cheaper to build than a starter line in Riverside or San Marco.
Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.
If anyone is wondering what automate light metro is, Honolulu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyline_(Honolulu)) is opening their system tomorrow. It's had delays but I think the investment will be worth it, if they're able to get it downtown.
I think Ock has talked about the idea of an S-Line streetcar/LRT before. Although the thing that stands out to me is that JTA is currently looking into redoing their maintenance center operations, which would mean the opportunity to redevelop the Myrtle Avenue campus and reconnect the rail ROW from the downtown terminal through the S-Line to points north. It would be a lot more convenient to do that with a modern DMU like this that can meet FRA Alternative Compliance instead of a light rail vehicle (had an artist friend throw this together last year):
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/847298939618590760/1124049617370239116/JTA_concept.png?width=1025&height=342)
I have another thread (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,37585.0.html) from someone arguing that Jacksonville warrants a dedicated metro system. That was for heavier rail like Miami rather than Honolulu but I think the point stands regardless of technology choice.
We've discussed this here before but it seems a lot of the problem goes back to that we really screwed up by deciding to go for the peoplemover program, which has left us with a white elephant that we apparently can't tear down, can't upgrade normally, and can't leave as-is. And then we have a transit agency that has decided to abandon its primary responsibility to chase the glory of discovering self driving, and refuses to take no for an answer.
I'm curious how much attention the Deegan Administration might pay to transportation, because we're spending a lot of money on it, there's a lot more money out there, but we're not getting a ton of results for our current (and planned future) approach.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 02:41:08 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 01:27:17 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 11:55:00 AM
Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/43572ee892264d9aa1df6dc1c72e6a24) they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.
Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.
QuoteAmtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.
FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.
I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.
We're very far off, even in terms of spending once you start tallying up the numbers from the Turnpike, CFX, etc. Even back in the 1990s, there was more than 7 million people living within a 100 mile radius of Lakeland. I'm sure they've added a couple of million more along the I-4 corridor since then. Polk County alone has 800,000 residents now. I'm not saying its a good or bad thing, its just a reality we have to accept and work with.
QuoteFDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.
I was embedded as an in-house consultant at the FDOT District that runs Sunrail for several years. The district is way more progressive towards complete streets, multimodal projects, etc. than Jax's district. With that said, if there was a do-over, I'm not sure FDOT would do SunRail again. It has failed to meet is projections and is unreliable for a lion's share of that region.
I rented an apartment down there for the time I was there. Did everything possible to rent a spot at a Sunrail station (TOD has been a success for SunRail, IMO). It never made sense. A 30-45 minute commute, depending on station locations in Seminole County, would have immediately jumped to 2-hour one-way daily commute (assuming you don't miss the train at peak time). It doesn't run on the weekends, so you couldn't even enjoy the benefit of hopping on the train to head to Downtown Orlando, Winter Park or Kissimmee on a Saturday or Sunday. I ended up renting one year in a fake town center type development (Colonial Town Park in Heathrow), a loft in downtown Deland another year and hoteled it for a while.
I'm glad Orlando struck while the iron was hot and got SunRail. However, for it to be more functional, a lot more money will need to be thrown its way. The locals don't necessarily want to do it and FDOT doesn't want to either. I think that's the biggest challenge with FDOT. In a weird sort of way, we don't have this issue with the Skyway or anything we'd like to do locally, which is a benefit of consolidation. Our biggest challenge isn't financial, its aligning local leadership priorities with the greater Jacksonville community's.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 02:32:18 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 02:26:20 PM
Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.
Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.
So self sabotage on our end with the Skyway/U2C. Very unfortunate. I wonder how many people in town know how we screw ourselves over?
Yes! JTA was not even aware of this when I brought this up to them lol.. I will admit it is a newer program, but another reason among the many they are shooting themselves in the foot. Cumber had interest in this program and was the person who opened my eyes to it. She was trying to put something together I think over her term, but hit hurdles along the way.
This only solidifies my belief that its fool's gold to expect JTA to actually bring something like LRT, streetcar or commuter rail to implementation. 16 years since that 2008 commuter rail study and we're no closer to anything than we were then. All the babbling about TOD, millions spent on studies for things that are common sense. Yet still no real implementation. Not even upzoning or coordinating public investment and public/private partnerships around existing TOD stations. Basic stuff, not something transformational like implementing a LRT line to the beaches. In the meantime, several other places have went from concept to operation in a fraction of the time.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 29, 2023, 02:59:05 PM
I think Ock has talked about the idea of an S-Line streetcar/LRT before. Although the thing that stands out to me is that JTA is currently looking into redoing their maintenance center operations, which would mean the opportunity to redevelop the Myrtle Avenue campus and reconnect the rail ROW from the downtown terminal through the S-Line to points north. It would be a lot more convenient to do that with a modern DMU like this that can meet FRA Alternative Compliance instead of a light rail vehicle (had an artist friend throw this together last year):
I was right there with Ock, talking about the benefits of a DMU type system for the S-Line back in 2005-2008ish, when we took down JTA's original BRT plan.
(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/images/commuter_rail/dmu_demo/DSC_0060.jpg)
DMU demonstration in Jax back in 2007 - https://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2007-mar-commuter-rail-demonstration-visits-jacksonville
That pushback resulted in the old commuter rail study JTA finally did, after blowing $100 million in BJP money that was supposed to go to rapid transit. Its 2023, the faces at JTA and its board have long changed, but the direction to chase after risky dreams is closer to the Skyway planning days than at any other time in modern history.
QuoteWe've discussed this here before but it seems a lot of the problem goes back to that we really screwed up by deciding to go for the peoplemover program, which has left us with a white elephant that we apparently can't tear down, can't upgrade normally, and can't leave as-is.
For me, blaming the Skyway has been nothing but bucking the blame of self incompetence. Some type of way, Miami found a way to make the Metromover and Metrorail work. They both were general failures until they overhauled their zoning ordinance and got aggressive with encouraging and stimulating dense development around their stations. We can do the same with the Skyway. For whatever reason, we've selected to do nothing but spend money dreaming and studying big, while refusing to invest in the little things like stimulating TOD around existing transit assets, moving the train station back downtown, etc. Now, we've skipped all of that basic stuff to wanting AV vehicles and a lower capacity system that has never been done in an urban environment before?!!!
QuoteAnd then we have a transit agency that has decided to abandon its primary responsibility to chase the glory of discovering self driving, and refuses to take no for an answer.
Totally crazy!!!!
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 02:38:40 PM
Quote from: iMarvin on June 29, 2023, 02:29:24 PM
Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.
Simply rebranding and upgrading the Skyway is the easiest and lowest hanging fruit we have to improving fixed transit in this town. Unfortunately, JTA is the biggest obstacle to it and literally everything else transit related. I have very little confidence in JTA pulling any type of commuter rail, LRT, streetcar, etc. off in my lifetime. As such, even Amtrak on its worst day will be more competent and more likely to pull something off Jax related. No matter what people think of them, they do exist, have done it before, and desire to expand in Florida. The stumbling block is Tallahassee. That place changes every 4 to 8 years, so the direction FDOT sways today could be very different in a few years.
This is... extremely depressing but also very true. There are just way too many good transit projects that will never happen if JTA remains the way it is.
How do we advocate for a change of leadership in JTA, or for a new transit authority altogether?
We need some type of self-study with accredited professionals to do a community report, utilizing previous studies/plans with common-sense logic. It has been done before to bring awareness to items such as these in transition periods. The good thing about the local, state, federal step up is that there are guidelines & figures local governments have to just accept as reality. If those figures can prove xyz on a state or federal guideline level, maybe you'll get someone close to Donna, or Donna's, attention.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 03:42:45 PM
We need some type of self-study with accredited professionals to do a community report, utilizing previous studies/plans with common-sense logic. It has been done before to bring awareness to items such as these in transition periods. The good thing about the local, state, federal step up is that there are guidelines & figures local governments have to just accept as reality. If those figures can prove xyz on a state or federal guideline level, maybe you'll get someone close to Donna, or Donna's, attention.
I brought this up not too long ago, and agree. Some kind of analysis that brings together our transportation history, reports like the RTC's work, the LRTP, and previous studies, looks at where things currently are, and demonstrates a path forward to leverage local, state and federal dollars for useful transportation and economic development.
^That's the easy part. To get there, the political direction will have to change. For JTA and transit projects, I believe the boards will need a bit of overhauling and staff will need to be directed by those revamped boards, a bit more than they are today. Hopefully, this is an opportunity the Deegan administration will take advantage of.
While we're talking about JTA, here's a video they just released for their State of the Authority looking back at the last ten years: https://youtu.be/sLpt2BcD5AI
Marcus, I know that there are only a few people that view these videos. It's good to know you do too when I see stuff like this. I think we can both sit back and laugh at this content. Truly one of a kind.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 04:31:38 PM
^That's the easy part. To get there, the political direction will have to change. For JTA and transit projects, I believe the boards will need a bit of overhauling and staff will need to be directed by those revamped boards, a bit more than they are today. Hopefully, this is an opportunity the Deegan administration will take advantage of.
Most of the authority boards are jokes... people appointed based on political connections and a willingness to be submissive to the officials that appointed them. Those who accept and sincerely want to try and do the job are often in over their heads, lacking experience, expertise, energy, comprehension, time, etc. to be able to fully grasp the impact of the decisions they are asked to make. Others are there only to support their self interests or benefit their friends. Then, often, you have turnover after an election as Curry insisted on when he became mayor taking away the "long" view of board members. Some may just be padding their resumes. Add it all up, and you have rubber stamp or very weak boards that really offer no true oversight of the staff or the agency's mission.
Boards should have a mix of community perspectives, appropriate professional expertise from subject experts, legal, finance, etc. and should serve beyond the realm of politics and the whim of politicians who only care about their own agendas and wish to impose them on the agencies.
Also, having the governor appoint members to local boards should be changed. Why should a governor have a say in local leadership of agencies that are just as impactful as any department or branch of City government.
Until changes are made to the above, expect the continued disappointment and bad decision making we have witnessed more times than not over the decades.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on June 29, 2023, 06:15:32 PM
Marcus, I know that there are only a few people that view these videos. It's good to know you do too when I see stuff like this. I think we can both sit back and laugh at this content. Truly one of a kind.
Nat Ford makes more (https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jun/30/who-earns-the-most-in-jacksonville-city-government/) than the CEO of the New York MTA. If nothing else I suppose you have to hand that to him.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 29, 2023, 07:02:44 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on June 29, 2023, 04:31:38 PM
^That's the easy part. To get there, the political direction will have to change. For JTA and transit projects, I believe the boards will need a bit of overhauling and staff will need to be directed by those revamped boards, a bit more than they are today. Hopefully, this is an opportunity the Deegan administration will take advantage of.
Most of the authority boards are jokes... people appointed based on political connections and a willingness to be submissive to the officials that appointed them. Those who accept and sincerely want to try and do the job are often in over their heads, lacking experience, expertise, energy, comprehension, time, etc. to be able to fully grasp the impact of the decisions they are asked to make. Others are there only to support their self interests or benefit their friends. Then, often, you have turnover after an election as Curry insisted on when he became mayor taking away the "long" view of board members. Some may just be padding their resumes. Add it all up, and you have rubber stamp or very weak boards that really offer no true oversight of the staff or the agency's mission.
Boards should have a mix of community perspectives, appropriate professional expertise from subject experts, legal, finance, etc. and should serve beyond the realm of politics and the whim of politicians who only care about their own agendas and wish to impose them on the agencies.
Also, having the governor appoint members to local boards should be changed. Why should a governor have a say in local leadership of agencies that are just as impactful as any department or branch of City government.
Until changes are made to the above, expect the continued disappointment and bad decision making we have witnessed more times than not over the decades.
The natural challenge of appointed oversight/non-professional positions is that it is extremely easy for them to become patronage positions, rewards for support with little understanding of the underlying industry. Especially in a place with such little transit-riding culture like Jacksonville. And especially when it's so common for a board position to essentially be a hobby on the side of multiple other board seats
and a day job instead of being a primary focus.
The reason JTA has gubernatorial appointments is that it's formally a state agency, not a city agency. It has a local impact but it's not formally subservient to the city beyond the appointments (and occasionally city taxes used to fund it).
Frankly, it'd be nice if Mayor Deegan could expect the mayoral appointees to resign, on account of the obvious need for people who understand transportation, but I don't expect that to happen.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 28, 2023, 03:53:26 PM
With construction underway on the final Phase 2 expansion to DeLand, FDOT is now hard at work on planning the next phase of SunRail: Polk County.
They've now held a virtual workshop: https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/ (https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/)
They've also already completed an alternatives analysis that proposes initially expanding 16 miles to Haines City before later expanding into Lakeland. There don't seem to be details yet on how exactly such an expansion would work with CSX, especially given the known concerns the closer to Tampa one gets. Additionally, there are some potential questions as far as how Polk County would join SunRail, but presumably those are questions they have time to answer, especially since the expected start of operations at this time is 2035.
I'll believe a Sunrail expansion to Lakeland when I see it. Ultimately, I think Lakeland's ambition for some type of rail service (aside from Amtrak) will not make it beyond Auburndale, if it even comes that far into Polk County.
I'm not saying that it can't or won't happen. However, based on the proposed location of the new intermodal terminal in downtown Lakeland that would consolidate operations between Citrus Connection (bus), Amtrak (current station opened in '98), taxi/Rider sharing and whatever rail expansion may come, there's very little room for double tracking. In downtown Lakeland alone, some properties (and buildings) are in very close proximity to the existing rail line, let alone a 2nd line and I don't foresee CSX allowing anything else potentially bottlenecking their operations between the Lakeland Wye and diamond junction in Auburndale. That also could explain why CSX has yet to upgrade that portion of the S-Line.
I've been wrong before, lol.
Frankly, it'd be nice if Mayor Deegan could expect the mayoral appointees to resign, on account of the obvious need for people who understand transportation, but I don't expect that to happen.
[/quote]
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 30, 2023, 03:45:50 PM
Frankly, it'd be nice if Mayor Deegan could expect the mayoral appointees to resign, on account of the obvious need for people who understand transportation, but I don't expect that to happen.
There is at least some turnover happening in the administration, obviously unclear whether boards will do the same. The former Director of Strategic Partnerships, Dawn Lockhart is leaving (https://twitter.com/dawnlockhart/status/1675505647419269124?s=46&t=vkOnzVgzGQzmKS--73ASSg). Tracye Polson is taking that role.
In case anyone is interested in serving in the Deegan Administration:
Quote
Interested in joining a City Board?
Apply today with the Deegan Transition Team
Mayor-Elect Deegan is committed to every person having a voice in City Hall and a seat at the table. Her administration will be an inclusive one where they encourage collaboration between people from all walks of life and who look like Jacksonville.
To fulfill that pledge, Duval County residents can now apply to join several volunteer boards and commissions Deegan has the power to appoint individuals.
If you're interested, please submit a cover letter indicating the board you are interested in applying to at boards-commissions23@coj.net
Not sure what boards and commission are available? Don't worry, we have you covered. Check out the list of the city boards using the link below.
https://www.coj.net/departments/boards-and-commissions.aspx
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 28, 2023, 03:53:26 PM
With construction underway on the final Phase 2 expansion to DeLand, FDOT is now hard at work on planning the next phase of SunRail: Polk County.
They've now held a virtual workshop: https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/
They've also already completed an alternatives analysis that proposes initially expanding 16 miles to Haines City before later expanding into Lakeland. There don't seem to be details yet on how exactly such an expansion would work with CSX, especially given the known concerns the closer to Tampa one gets. Additionally, there are some potential questions as far as how Polk County would join SunRail, but presumably those are questions they have time to answer, especially since the expected start of operations at this time is 2035.
I am very familiar with this effort - and, as of now, it is doubtful to proceed
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 03, 2023, 10:55:37 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 28, 2023, 03:53:26 PM
With construction underway on the final Phase 2 expansion to DeLand, FDOT is now hard at work on planning the next phase of SunRail: Polk County.
They've now held a virtual workshop: https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/ (https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/)
They've also already completed an alternatives analysis that proposes initially expanding 16 miles to Haines City before later expanding into Lakeland. There don't seem to be details yet on how exactly such an expansion would work with CSX, especially given the known concerns the closer to Tampa one gets. Additionally, there are some potential questions as far as how Polk County would join SunRail, but presumably those are questions they have time to answer, especially since the expected start of operations at this time is 2035.
I am very familiar with this effort - and, as of now, it is doubtful to proceed
Right! I'll believe it when I see it.
Quote from: iMarvin on June 28, 2023, 05:46:18 PM
A Lakeland extension isn't a terrible idea but they should really work on increasing frequency, expanding operating hours (literally no weekend service), and redeveloping their park-and-ride lots. That would do way more to increase ridership than a Lakeland extension would assuming they continue to run just 20 trains daily M-F.
I agree. Based on current commuting patterns between Orlando Metro and Polk County (even though Polk is now part of the Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona CSA), I believe the gains would be minimal when compared to the expansion costs and maintenance.
I agree as well. Even the expansion to DeLand is a very questionable expense to me. That's not going to generate a fraction of the ridership growth that increased headways and denser development around existing stations would accomplish. Unfortunately, many of these decisions are made from a political perspective, even when logic doesn't support those actions.
Once the Airport connection is complete the expansions mentioned above will make a lot more sense for commuters / travelers, because there are a lot of big projects in the works along the Sunrail line. The train will be running 7 days a week with connections to Brightline / MCO, Downtown Orlando (2 new entertainment venues are currently underway for Dr Philips Center and Amway Center), 2 new expansions underway at Advent and Orlando Health, the new Universal Park will be opened with a new connection from the airport to the convention center, etc.
The cheaper land on the outskirts of town will start to build up density around the stations and become more attractive to high density developers. I've already seen this happening around the 4 downtown stations (I'm including advent and Orlando Health), by Debary Station and at Kissimee station. The more connections that are added (especially the airport) the more traffic all of these stops will see. I expect Kissimee to become a budget friendly "Winter Park" stop for tourists soon. They've got some pretty big construction going on by the station right now.