Quote(https://photos.moderncities.com/photos/i-dRcXhMg/1/L/i-dRcXhMg-L.jpg)
A new convention center has been in Jacksonville's long term plans for decades, but the Downtown Investment Authority now says it could be another 10 years before the city is ready for the type of major center it has typically explored. However, if we rethink our expectations and build upon the existing assets of the Downtown Hyatt, Jacksonville could have a convention center that would fulfill our current needs without breaking the bank.
Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/rethinking-jacksonvilles-convention-center-dilemma/
I'm struggling with this one. Normally I'm completely aligned with your feelings, but this one I honestly see both sides. With both lots, you could get close to a 250k building there so that in my eyes was a no brainer. But, if we're talking 100k, then I'm having a harder time getting excited. We're at about 80k now with the Prime Osborne.
I think about some of the conferences I attend and with the exception of the super small ones, none would fit in 100k. Now the big ones we realistically aren't candidates for anyway - there are 2-3 I attend every year that are in Atlanta/Chicago/New York primarily for the availability of a lot of international flights. Those wouldn't be our target regardless. On the other hand, there's a lot in the 200k range that I do think we'd be candidates for. A few of my conferences require vendors to bring large stuff so the number of people doesn't always match the size of the space.
Now, unquestionably for out-of-town folks this locale would be MUCH better and it would financially sustain the Hyatt for sure. I'd also add that for a 200k SqFt show, many conferences would need more hotel space than the Hyatt and (now Marriott Downtown) offer (about 1,250 rooms combined).
I mean there's the option of going up for more exhibition space, but outside of New York I'm not sure I've seen one of those actually work. Chicago's exhibit halls at Mccormick are one level (though a couple buildings are separate).
I guess the question is - would it make sense to build something that's 100k SqFt which serves us now but couldn't reasonably be expanded? Perhaps then you look at a building that could be repurposed if we reasonably grow the convention business. By that point my guess is the Police Memorial Building/Jail will ACTUALLY be at end of life (versus now) and that site offers a LOT of possibilities (you could get probably 450k-525k Square Feet there.....but for a LOT of money and now it's not (easily) attached to the convention Center hotel.
Boyer's idea for the Hyatt Garage/Landing Lot site isn't great for a few reasons, but you could get a 200k SqFt building if you removed the Newnan Street Ramp (which isn't really needed). It also has the benefit of being able to be attached to the Hyatt. Obviously replacing the parking for the Hyatt isn't free so that's an added expense. You could also make the same argument about expandability with 200k, but in theory that should get you longer.
I get the appeal of a convention center connected to the Hyatt. That said, I don't see the area having much of what else is required other than the hotel and some bare bones bars and/or restaurants.
First and foremost, I think any center, no matter its initial size, needs to be expandable. Nothing is more expensive than to have to repeatedly move or start over every 20 years or so. Hopefully, as our city population grows and its "natural" assets such as weather, location, river, beaches, etc. become better known and appreciated, we grow the size of conventions picking Jax (I might add that as the world, US, and Florida populations grow, convention sizes tend to grow with them). Given that a center should be good for 30 to 50+ years, it is reasonably prudent to plan for the future possibility of expansion.
Second, convention centers may require a good bit of large truck access. I have seen multiple large trucks at the T-U center just to stage a Broadway show. A convention center would have much more of this traffic and access.
Third, I don't see Jax having adequate mass transit anytime soon to replace dependence by attendees on auto parking. Parking 1,000 to 2,000 or more cars near the Hyatt is clearly not feasible. Heck, based on my experience, the Hyatt doesn't even have nearly enough parking for events currently there.
While I am no fan of Khan's inside track with the City, I do agree with him that a convention center at the sports complex makes the most sense. This area would provide plenty of parking and room to expand. If Khan ever builds his 4 Seasons and/or Lot J and/or redevelops the stadium area, an entertainment/restaurant mix could grow in that area. Yes, it is a mile west of the Downtown core, but let's face it, Jax is clearly not prepared to leverage a convention center in the core. It is more likely to grow the core toward the sports district (a la Brooklyn and the Southbank) based on our history than build up the core which we have been unable to do for over 50 years now.
Which brings up my fourth thought: A convention center at the sports complex could have synergies with the other facilities already in the area: arena, ball grounds, TIAA, Metro Park, Dailys, future use of the fairgrounds, etc.
No solution is likely perfect. It comes down to best fit. We can all agree, the current facility doesn't cut it and never will.
Based on these arguments... why wouldn't we just expand the Prime Osborn then? If the focus is supposed to be on expandability and truck access and available car parking, you might as well simply take out a wall and double/triple the size of the exhibition space, add additional meeting rooms (perhaps a new ballroom to make the original waiting room available for rail service) and deck over the parking lot. You can subsidize a hotel on the nearby empty lots (or even just on-property) and incentivize restaurants to fill it as LaVilla grows.
Re: Sports Complex, that idea seems to have died as part of the rendering evolution. Last I checked it would have gone where the apartments/medical center near Four Seasons and MOSH are now going. I suppose you could put it on Lot J but it sounds like we're getting a rehash of the last plan, and unless we squeeze it in with the eventual Fairgrounds Casino that doesn't appear to be an option either.
^ I wrote off the existing convention center for several reasons. First, was the desire to convert it back into an active transportation terminal. Second, it is more isolated/limited than the sports complex from any surrounding entertainment/restaurant possibilities. Third, to expand it might take a major redesign of the floor plan to the north (i.e. dealing with the foyer). Fourth, limited room for the necessary number of parking spaces. Fifth, I just think if you go there, its easier to start over with the sports complex.
If a casino goes to the fairgrounds, I would look for the convention center to built as part of that project. Some of the casinos in Las Vegas have giant convention centers attached so there seems to be some synergy there.
And, I would never call any possibility in this town totally "dead" until it isn't :).
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 24, 2022, 01:47:15 PM
I get the appeal of a convention center connected to the Hyatt. That said, I don't see the area having much of what else is required other than the hotel and some bare bones bars and/or restaurants.
First and foremost, I think any center, no matter its initial size, needs to be expandable. Nothing is more expensive than to have to repeatedly move or start over every 20 years or so. Hopefully, as our city population grows and its "natural" assets such as weather, location, river, beaches, etc. become better known and appreciated, we grow the size of conventions picking Jax (I might add that as the world, US, and Florida populations grow, convention sizes tend to grow with them). Given that a center should be good for 30 to 50+ years, it is reasonably prudent to plan for the future possibility of expansion.
I think first and foremost, we need to consider implementation timeline with these potential projects. We've been talking about expanding or moving from the Prime Osborn for +20 years. We're no closer today than we were then, so it will be at least a +30 years of talk while working with a 78k square foot exhibition hall and outdated center in what should be a train station. Not doing anything simply leaves multiple high profile downtown sites in continued limbo for years to come. Build a larger hall than what you have now in a better location for a fraction of the timeline and cost that it will take to make something that Jax won't be able to support 30 years from now. By the time we get to a point of a need to expand, most of us here will be dead and it will be time to retrofit the Hyatt space altogether anyway.
QuoteSecond, convention centers may require a good bit of large truck access. I have seen multiple large trucks at the T-U center just to stage a Broadway show. A convention center would have much more of this traffic and access.
Historically, East Bay was industrial. It has pretty good access already. Consider Maxwell House, which generates more truck traffic than any convention of Jax's dreams would. If it can survive and prosper there for more than a century, the old city hall annex site shouldn't be a problem.
QuoteThird, I don't see Jax having adequate mass transit anytime soon to replace dependence by attendees on auto parking. Parking 1,000 to 2,000 or more cars near the Hyatt is clearly not feasible. Heck, based on my experience, the Hyatt doesn't even have nearly enough parking for events currently there.
You could incorporate additional parking into the new structure, since it would have to be multiple levels anyway. Other than that, I'd argue that we have more than enough parking in downtown. Much of it is just underutilized. I've gone to more events at the Hyatt than I can count over the last 18 years. Personally, I've never had an issue parking there or anywhere else in downtown. Even during Super Bowl week, I was able to park near most places I went.
QuoteWhile I am no fan of Khan's inside track with the City, I do agree with him that a convention center at the sports complex makes the most sense. This area would provide plenty of parking and room to expand. If Khan ever builds his 4 Seasons and/or Lot J and/or redevelops the stadium area, an entertainment/restaurant mix could grow in that area. Yes, it is a mile west of the Downtown core, but let's face it, Jax is clearly not prepared to leverage a convention center in the core. It is more likely to grow the core toward the sports district (a la Brooklyn and the Southbank) based on our history than build up the core which we have been unable to do for over 50 years now.
IMO, the reality both Khan and Jax officials tend to overlook with many of the most ambitious dreams is timeline. It will be another 20 to 30 years before an oversized convention center is built in downtown Jax. It will also take that long to turn acres and acres of surface parking lots into development and an environment that can support it. It's almost a separate conversation from what's needed now, when timeline, finances and reality are seriously considered.
QuoteWhich brings up my fourth thought: A convention center at the sports complex could have synergies with the other facilities already in the area: arena, ball grounds, TIAA, Metro Park, Dailys, future use of the fairgrounds, etc.
No solution is likely perfect. It comes down to best fit. We can all agree, the current facility doesn't cut it and never will.
I'd fall on the line of saying a phased approach is perfect. Otherwise, another 30 years of the same will be our future. To me, leaving several downtown sites in limbo for years, waiting to hit a grand slam is equivalent of striking out altogether.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 24, 2022, 04:30:43 PM
^ I wrote off the existing convention center for several reasons. First, was the desire to convert it back into an active transportation terminal. Second, it is more isolated/limited than the sports complex from any surrounding entertainment/restaurant possibilities. Third, to expand it might take a major redesign of the floor plan to the north (i.e. dealing with the foyer). Fourth, limited room for the necessary number of parking spaces. Fifth, I just think if you go there, its easier to start over with the sports complex.
Based off our past, how many years would you guess it would take to start over with the sports complex?
QuoteIf a casino goes to the fairgrounds, I would look for the convention center to built as part of that project. Some of the casinos in Las Vegas have giant convention centers attached so there seems to be some synergy there.
That's a big IF! +20 years have passed since the initial attempts to develop anything on the shipyards. That site is still empty today. Nearly a decade has passed since Khan's initial round of riverfront renderings. Still nothing there today. Break ground on Four Seasons tomorrow and we're still probably 3 or 4 years away from enjoying a glass of overpriced beer at the bar. The way things move from a timeline perspective, I'd wager Marcusnelson will be a granddad before a casino with a giant Las Vegas style convention opens on a small fairgrounds site. By that time, the Hyatt will be eligible to added as a local historic landmark.
Ennis, I sense your frustration with this project ;D!
As to size, any size can be built. I didn't specify a size. If built for expansion, no matter the location, it can be phased. The Hyatt area doesn't have a monopoly on that.
The same with a timeline. I don't see the City having its act together any more for one location than another at this point. Based on history, as you note, no matter what, it will take "forever" to get something out of the ground. Notably, the City not only isn't pursuing this project presently (i.e. no existing momentum to push it forward anytime soon), but it also has no idea what it wants (aside from where and when). As such, it is also not budgeted so no obvious funding source has been identified for the undetermined costs. In other words, no matter your suggestion, mine or others, this project is years away regardless. Pile on more frustration!
Yes, totally frustrated with the snail's pace of projects and properties where the city has control. They literally prohibit the type of time efficient revitalization you've seen in most communities the last two decades. Embracing the concept of the 3C's when the market is hot has proven successful time and time again globally, so solutions are pretty simple.
With that said, you do have a few things with the Hyatt that no other site have before within the next generation. They include a centralized location, a cluster of existing entertainment and dining uses with walking distance, nearly 1,000 hotel rooms, existing meeting space and a property that has first right of refusal on the city hall annex site. Taxpayers are also +$20 million in on subsidizing it to be there.
Most importantly, there is no market for a Vegas sized convention center in Jax and there won't be one in the future either. Spending money on one would be a huge waste of public resources anywhere in Jax.
By far, improving what you already have is the most cost and time effective solution to an issue that sets off a series of moves across DT that lead to short term vibrancy. With a new administration coming in soon, it's also something that could change quickly priority wise (i.e. Jax Landing's renovation plan when Curry was elected).
Assuming the Carter plan for the Ford on Bay gets built, what real options exist for the annex site outside of a convention space? The Spandrel debacle sure sent the message the Hyatt won't tolerate generic infill there.
IMO, the opportunity cost of leaving that hole in Bay Street should factor in to any convention center plans, even if it's not directly pertinent to the convention center feasibility on paper. But I suppose that's dangerously close to master planning.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on January 24, 2022, 07:30:18 PM
Assuming the Carter plan for the Ford on Bay gets built, what real options exist for the annex site outside of a convention space? The Spandrel debacle sure sent the message the Hyatt won't tolerate generic infill there.
IMO, the opportunity cost of leaving that hole in Bay Street should factor in to any convention center plans, even it's not directly pertinent to the convention center feasibility on paper. But I suppose that's dangerously close to master planning.
This is why I thought the Spandrel-selected RFP was stupid. It's like the city thought they could just convince the Hyatt ownership to just give up their first right. That's their value-without a convention center, the property is a bit of an albatross-very oversized for this market.
Right now there are only two options for an attached center-behind the building and on the current parking garage/old Landing lot. Now, of course you have to have hotel parking somewhere-perhaps that's on the City Hall site (properly designed and ideally more than just parking/retail).
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on January 24, 2022, 07:30:18 PM
Assuming the Carter plan for the Ford on Bay gets built, what real options exist for the annex site outside of a convention space? The Spandrel debacle sure sent the message the Hyatt won't tolerate generic infill there.
The site basically sits underutilized and in limbo for years to come. By not resolving one elephant in the room, we also keep another prime site like the old train station in LaVilla in limbo and also underutilized for years to come. People are definitely used to this with downtown Jacksonville but it doesn't have to be this way. Everyone loses in a situation where we refuse to properly activate our key city owned properties during one of the longest urban revitalization boom periods in American history.
QuoteIMO, the opportunity cost of leaving that hole in Bay Street should factor in to any convention center plans, even it's not directly pertinent to the convention center feasibility on paper. But I suppose that's dangerously close to master planning.
Master planning?! How dare you! You said a very nasty word!
This is one of my biggest complaints about JAX. There is no PLAN. No master plan in regards to a convention center or pretty much everything else.
Decide where the CC is going, how much acreage will be devoted to that, where will the parking go, etc. Even if it won't be built now, set the land aside and declare that the plan. Now decide what to do with the Prime Osborn, assuming it is not the future CC site.
I am with Lakelander on this, PROVIDED the Ford at Bay site is NOT developed and can be devoted to future expansion and ancillary uses. Steve is right on that, IMO. The Hyatt will ALWAYS be the biggest hotel in DT and it was built with conventions in mind. But cutting it off from expansion is a deal-breaker in my book. Put 'The Hardwick' on the site of the Berkman 2 or adjacent to it instead of the Ford at Bay site.
As for the Sports district, the last site plans I saw had a building/spot that looked very much like a convention center, it just wasn't in the first phase. My guess is the city will simply keep kicking the can down the road until Khan's Four Seasons, etc. plans are reality, and the case for putting the CC there is even stronger than it is today. I think this is exactly why Boyer said what she said.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 24, 2022, 05:04:43 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 24, 2022, 01:47:15 PM
I get the appeal of a convention center connected to the Hyatt. That said, I don't see the area having much of what else is required other than the hotel and some bare bones bars and/or restaurants.
First and foremost, I think any center, no matter its initial size, needs to be expandable. Nothing is more expensive than to have to repeatedly move or start over every 20 years or so. Hopefully, as our city population grows and its "natural" assets such as weather, location, river, beaches, etc. become better known and appreciated, we grow the size of conventions picking Jax (I might add that as the world, US, and Florida populations grow, convention sizes tend to grow with them). Given that a center should be good for 30 to 50+ years, it is reasonably prudent to plan for the future possibility of expansion.
I think first and foremost, we need to consider implementation timeline with these potential projects. We've been talking about expanding or moving from the Prime Osborn for +20 years. We're no closer today than we were then, so it will be at least a +30 years of talk while working with a 78k square foot exhibition hall and outdated center in what should be a train station. Not doing anything simply leaves multiple high profile downtown sites in continued limbo for years to come. Build a larger hall than what you have now in a better location for a fraction of the timeline and cost that it will take to make something that Jax won't be able to support 30 years from now. By the time we get to a point of a need to expand, most of us here will be dead and it will be time to retrofit the Hyatt space altogether anyway.
This^
Jax leaders need to think in terms of the concept of Time Value of Money (TMV). Every year you wait to solve convention center, Skyway, Shipyards, Landing, etc; the more you delay the ripple effects from completing those projects (additional redevelopment) and you have less time to recapture the initial investment.
Jax's incompetence may turn out to be a blessing in disguise though. Does anyone really think there will still be traditional conventions in 20-30 years? Does Jax even stand to gain much by a major investment in a convention center? Florida is an extremely competitive state for conventions and frankly DT Jax has less to offer convention goers than other locations in Florida. Orlando has a better airport, will soon have Brightline, has more hotels, and a ton of golf nearby. Then in South Florida you have convention centers in Downtown West Palm Beach, Miami Beach, The Diplomat (on the ocean) in Hollywood, and oh by the way Broward County is spending
1 BILLION DOLLARS to expand their existing convention center. It's five minutes from the FTL airport, is next to their huge cruise terminal, and is only a mile from the beach. It will add a 350k exhibition hall, 65k ballroom, and 525k square feet of meeting space to the existing facility that will have 1.2 million square feet when done. Then you have Tampa's in a great location downtown with 600k square feet.
All that tells me that the obvious play is exactly what the Jaxson has suggested.
Jacksonville is the way it is because it's the way your average, normal, everyday Jacksonville voter wants it to be. Modern, progressive citizens are a minority in this town. Having been born here, educated, and raised here, I know. When young we were taught to finish school, perhaps join the military, and get a "steady job" at a paper mill, chemical plant, or military base. You can't blame only the city council, city boards, or even the mayor for where we are. The voters demand it. This way of thinking is slowly fading away, but not fast enough. We have an inferiority complex and in many ways we are. The only way out of this jamb is to elect people to public office that will LEAD us into the 21st century. Most people my age think the way we are is perfect. I'm glad I don't feel that way.
Quote from: Snaketoz on January 25, 2022, 10:37:34 AM
Jacksonville is the way it is because it's the way your average, normal, everyday Jacksonville voter wants it to be. Modern, progressive citizens are a minority in this town. Having been born here, educated, and raised here, I know. When young we were taught to finish school, perhaps join the military, and get a "steady job" at a paper mill, chemical plant, or military base. You can't blame only the city council, city boards, or even the mayor for where we are. The voters demand it. This way of thinking is slowly fading away, but not fast enough. We have an inferiority complex and in many ways we are. The only way out of this jamb is to elect people to public office that will LEAD us into the 21st century. Most people my age think the way we are is perfect. I'm glad I don't feel that way.
Not to get "off topic," but what's wrong with joining the military? I got my college education paid for through the military/government, ascended to mid level management staff rank (Chief Petty Officer), got to see over half of the world, managed and directed work centers, divisions, and departments, managed and directed hundreds of Sailors and thousands of dollars/finances, and was inundated with numerous high profile awards, decorations and medals; don't think anything is wrong with that (I retired from the military). However, setting THAT (the military) aside I see where you are coming from on this post, and I agree wholeheartedly.
In many ways over the years, Jacksonville has mimicked a more rural/small town mindset than an urban one. That's no aspersion on anyone, just noting a common cultural difference. With consolidation including much rural land, I believe that got magnified or more sustained over the last 50+ years. This is not a new observation about consolidation but it does bear repeating.
Today, most rural areas in Duval County are quickly disappearing, giving way to suburban housing and/or commercial development. As noted, this is supporting a progression toward more "big city" style thinking, albeit frustratingly slow. I think the main advantage of adding downtown/urban core area residents is to accelerate this trend by tipping the scales more to the type of approaches frequently discussed on the Jaxson boards.
The other issue is the City has been long controlled by a handful of "power brokers" who were more concerned with their pocketbooks more than the general welfare of the the community. With the growth in our population numbers, hopefully, this power is becoming more diluted over time and the City becomes more responsive to the larger community. Unfortunately, this transition, too, is frustratingly slow. In many ways, this may be our biggest holdback. Just look at how the Curry administration functions in the present. I am concerned that if Mr. Davis of the Chamber becomes our next mayor, it will continue for more years to come. The next election for mayor will tell us just how far the community is progressing.
To me Bay Street should be a strip of bars and restaurants. On each side.
Convention Center a better fit for the Sports Complex. Not squeezed onto a small amount of land.
Quote from: landfall on January 27, 2022, 08:51:37 AM
To me Bay Street should be a strip of bars and restaurants. On each side.
Convention Center a better fit for the Sports Complex. Not squeezed onto a small amount of land.
If it were vacant now, the Sheriff/Jail site would be ideal. Just keep a view corridor from the entrance to the river (obviously very doable). You would have significant space available while still being close to the core and Bay Street and the Hyatt, all without taking up riverfront land. And it would at least be a lot closer to Four Seasons, etc than the current center or one on the City Hall annex site.
Except it's not vacant. And making it so costs about as much as a convention center before you've even started building the thing.
Which brings us back around to the original issues of the Prime Osborn's current condition and the ideas for its repurposing, and the still-outstanding question of what to do with the Hyatt's right of first refusal.
Quote from: landfall on January 27, 2022, 08:51:37 AM
To me Bay Street should be a strip of bars and restaurants. On each side.
Convention Center a better fit for the Sports Complex. Not squeezed onto a small amount of land.
An exhibition hall would be on the second or third floor. There's no reason the ground floor can't be retail, dining and entertainment. In fact, it should be required.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 27, 2022, 10:42:43 AM
Except it's not vacant. And making it so costs about as much as a convention center before you've even started building the thing.
Which brings us back around to the original issues of the Prime Osborn's current condition and the ideas for its repurposing, and the still-outstanding question of what to do with the Hyatt's right of first refusal.
Those are real problems that every other potential site fails to address. It's something that validates why a downtown master plan is needed.
There's no energy in DT Jax. It's all fine and well having a 10k residents target but what is there after hours to encourage a late 20s early 30s something to move there apart from "just because"?
Where do you go for after work drinks? Where do you take a friend from out of town? Wheres the hub of nightlife?
Bay Street has the bones. It's not complicated. You could plant buildings that look like they'd be more fit for a suburban strip mall on the old courthouse site and they would considerably add to the vibrancy around there.
That Hyatt first refusal plot will still be grass in 5 years possibly 10 IMO.
Quote from: landfall on January 28, 2022, 03:25:34 AM
There's no energy in DT Jax. It's all fine and well having a 10k residents target but what is there after hours to encourage a late 20s early 30s something to move there apart from "just because"?
This would be the exact reason to cluster what you already have. Doing so would make existing businesses stronger and that would create a market where additional infill makes sense. We already have conventions and conferences. People are already coming into town. Staying status quo and not improving what we already have, simply runs the existing captive audience away. It's not a good way to build vibrancy but its what Jax has been doing with its downtown for decades.
QuoteWhere do you go for after work drinks? Where do you take a friend from out of town? Wheres the hub of nightlife?
There are places and it would be great to have more. However, if we're not going to do the things to better support what we already have, we can forget about adding to them.
QuoteThat Hyatt first refusal plot will still be grass in 5 years possibly 10 IMO.
I agree with you here and it's unfortunate. The same goes for most of the city owned parcels.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 28, 2022, 07:22:05 AM
Quote from: landfall on January 28, 2022, 03:25:34 AM
There's no energy in DT Jax. It's all fine and well having a 10k residents target but what is there after hours to encourage a late 20s early 30s something to move there apart from "just because"?
This would be the exact reason to cluster what you already have.
Bingo. As a 30s-something who lives in Arlington, there's enough going on downtown to draw us across the river for a night out. The problem is, our favorite spots are blocks apart. We have to make decisions about how we're going to get from A to B and feel safe doing so.
Downtown Jax is analogous to lighting a charcoal grill one briquette at a time. By the time you get your next piece placed, lit, and ready to cook, the first one you put on is halfway spent. Each piece may burn just fine, but no single one is going to cook a meal. Far easier to put all your briquettes in a pile and dump your lighter fluid on that one spot. Once that fire is going good and strong, it's far easier to add new briquettes; and wouldn't you know, they'll light themselves just by being near a good fire!
I just had a very interesting conversation with Lori Boyer, and I took the time to ask about this whole issue.
For starters, DIA is fully behind the jail site being the future convention center. Literally anyone you ask points out that it's the jail site.
Boyer's argument is that once the Shipyards, Berkman replacement, Hardwick, and Riverfront Plaza projects are built, amongst others, land values will be pushed high enough in that part of downtown that a developer will pay enough money in order to build a hotel adjacent to the proposed convention center that will ultimately pay for a substantial portion of the cost of moving the jail, especially because public support continues to build for prioritizing the move. The expectation is that even accounting for incentives to build the hotel, the overall long-term return on investment will be "greater than one."
I asked about the right of first refusal, and her response was that because of the increased land value, by the time a project arrives that triggers the right, the cost of business will be high enough to demand that Hyatt would have to build a substantial project on the land, at which point it doesn't matter to DIA whether they act on their right or not. Her concern was moreso that prices would stay cheap enough in the short term that Hyatt could get away with buying the land and doing nothing with it. Besides, the city can use it for civic uses like a farmer's market or something else in the meantime until prices get high.
I followed up by asking if she was concerned that the market might turn the wrong way before that happens, and she said that she's more concerned about inflation than anything else as far as that goes. She cited the Southbank condos pre-recession that were finished, so as long as the surrounding projects are under construction before the economy crashes they'll likely finish and just fill slowly, which means everything should still ultimately work.
So apparently that's the plan.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2022, 07:54:54 PM
Boyer's argument is that once the Shipyards, Berkman replacement, Hardwick, and Riverfront Plaza projects are built, amongst others, land values will be pushed high enough in that part of downtown that a developer will pay enough money in order to build a hotel adjacent to the proposed convention center that will ultimately pay for a substantial portion of the cost of moving the jail, especially because public support continues to build for prioritizing the move. The expectation is that even accounting for incentives to build the hotel, the overall long-term return on investment will be "greater than one."
Respectfully, I think someone math'ed wrong there.
In today's dollars we've heard that the estimate for moving the Jail would be $400 Million. Not sure if that's the Jail only or also the relocation of the JSO Headquarters. Regardless, maybe we have a different definition of, "substantial portion". Let's just say for a second than in 5 years that the Shipyards, Berkman, Hardwick and the Landing site are all fully redeveloped into good uses (which is a total pipe dream). Even if that happens, we think someone will buy the Police Memorial Building and Jail Site for something resembling $250 Million (north of 50% is what I would consider Substantial)?
So, let's just walk this further. Say all of this happens. These people are now into this site for $250M and they are the proud owners of a Jail and a Police Headquarters. We're going to build a convention center with an anchor hotel (putting aside the 963-room hotel two blocks away) that I'm guessing would cost - conservatively - $300 Million minimum (assuming zero inflation when this all happens)?
Oh. Let me get right behind this plan.
^ Maybe they will put a casino there...it will solve all the world's problems, save downtown and pay for all our sins. Just like attracting an NFL franchise was supposed to do. Haha.
Jax, always looking for the magic bullet.... no patience for anything else.
The jail site theory is the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a while. It's a pipe dream to think 1/2 of these projects are completed in 10 years, much less 5. So in other words, maybe we'll address the convention center situation around 2040. That's unacceptable to leave so many key sites in limbo that long. My honest guess is that the DIA priorities will change we'll before that. They'll change as soon as Boyer or Curry are gone. Anything 3 or 4 years out is pretty unpredictable at this point. This includes a good chunk of the projects listed.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2022, 07:54:54 PM
I followed up by asking if she was concerned that the market might turn the wrong way before that happens, and she said that she's more concerned about inflation than anything else as far as that goes. She cited the Southbank condos pre-recession that were finished, so as long as the surrounding projects are under construction before the economy crashes they'll likely finish and just fill slowly, which means everything should still ultimately work.
So apparently that's the plan.
I forgot to ask......was a timeline provided for this plan that's just as realistic as one of us finding a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow? Juvember of what year?
The suggestion seemed to be around the 5-10 year timeframe. The whole line of questions started with us standing in front of the LaVilla master plan and me asking whether a college had actually considered building a campus at the Prime Osborn (supposedly UF had been approached, but there was obviously nothing concrete in any sense), and then pointing out that you can't build a college campus on a convention center.
I realized getting in the car that I hadn't gotten the chance to ask about rail service from Amtrak or Brightline being in the DIA's long-term vision at all, my bad about that.
A five to ten year timeframe is even more unrealistic than that convention center strategy. As a downtown advocate, but also a realist, many of these strategies are pure frustrating because they show we've not really learned from our past mistakes. It's been nearly five years since we blew up City Hall Annex. Go back then and you'll find there was a similar timeline for redevelopment associated with that site. We've been talking about the Shipyards for more than 20 years now. Same goes for making our streets two way. How many years has the Landing site been dirt now? Now all of a sudden, we think we're going to redevelop the entire riverfront in five to ten years? We'll be lucky if MOSH raises enough money to actually start construction and be completed by then. Realistically, these things not only take time (i.e. planning, design, permitting, construction, etc.) they take a real financial commitment. Reminds me of the Landing office parcel RFP news the other day where it mentioned 2024 completion. Even if you broke ground on a +15 story tower tomorrow, completing it by 2024 would be exceptionally quick. So that's another date being pushed publicly that won't happen, considering we still need to go through a RFP process and all the things an entity would need to get through prior to being in a position to secure the necessary permits to start construction. Getting through the RFP, design, engineering, financing, DDRB process, permitting and other necessary benchmarks alone would push one into 2023 or 2024, not mentioning needing another 3 years or so for construction.
Don't even get me started on the talk about a college campus where TOD and a rail station should be. Seriously don't see why UF would want to be there and that's certainly something that can't happen in a good way as long as the Prime Osborn is a convention center. With that said, we should be looking at UF Health Jacksonville and growing that campus, when discussing partnerships and expansion of facilities associated with that particular school.
Oh, get this: apparently the idea with the campus (not from Boyer, another DIA staffer) was that because of all the work JTA is doing in innovation, a college might want to locate an innovation/tech campus at the Prime Osborn and take advantage of that work, which would have the important benefit of bringing a large daytime population to LaVilla.
Now in all fairness, it appears from JTA's more recent U2C TOD study that they've probably given up on the idea on their end, but of course JTA's study (and seemingly also the overall DIA master plan) also shows not actually reusing the train station as a... train station. Unless by some miracle all the plans demand draining and reopening the tunnels so that people can use that to reach the platforms.
Lol, all pie in the sky stuff that comes from not having enough true and transparent community engagement. JTA isn't don't anything that FDOT isn't already doing in a more advanced fashion. So basically a dream of being a Florida Poly II (https://floridapoly.edu/advanced-mobility-institute/index.php)? No college is opening up a satellite campus of significance (i.e. it being a major employer) in LaVilla because of the U2C. Even if one did magically show up, you're looking at well more than a decade or two before it could scale up to anything illustrated in a master plan that could be considered to be a major employer. That's fool's gold. Overall, a major problem with many of these dreams is they never focus on improving and maximizing what we already have first. Sometimes we tend to swing wildly for the fences, when all we really need is a bunt or single to bring in the winning run.
Playing devils advocate I could see development speeding up to fit that 5 year time frame. We have been asking for a master plan and one does seem to be getting developed/implemented. Keep in mind we are in the "Free State of Florida" this may be one of the only states that things can be developed in the future. I envision cranes in the sky every time I'm downtown. I feel like we are very close!
^I figured I was playing devil's advocate! There is no master plan.....or there's no plan that's been publicly vetted or transparent....which would be troublesome, if true. Historically, nothing has really changed to make it remotely feasible to build all these things within five years. Much of that timeline has nothing to do with Jax specifically. It's just the nature of how things go, even in the Miamis and Atlantas of the country. I literally can't think of one city in the country that completely revamped its waterfront within a five year period. Great to be ambitious! Maybe we say five and it takes 10 or 15, as opposed to saying 10 or 15 and it taking 30.