Metro Jacksonville

Quote(https://photos.moderncities.com/Cities/Jacksonville/Neighborhoods/Springfield-December-2020/i-cRxHsb9/0/cc388269/L/DSCF6388-L.jpg)

A proposed increase in Duval County's gas tax could help fund important priorities like septic tank phaseouts and transportation infrastructure. While some elements remain to be hammered out, it's an idea that's well worth exploring.

Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/is-a-gas-tax-increase-a-solution-to-jaxs-funding-woes/

I think it is important to make clear that a referendum is not needed to pass this gas tax. This City Council can approve it with a "majority plus one" vote - 11 votes.  I hope City Council will hold public meetings dedicated to the gas tax, and not buried as one of dozens of agenda items at regular Council meetings. It will be important for taxpayers to let their Council representatives know how they feel about the proposed list.

The article says

Quote
For instance, an estimated $300-$400 million for septic tank remediation

This must be from General Revenue funds that will no longer have to go to transportation projects?  You can't spend gas tax dollars on non-transportation uses - like septic tanks. Even drainage projects have to be directly related to transportation infrastructure.

To get some background on the proposed increase in the Local Option Gas Tax (LOGT), I looked at the North Florida TPO's 2045 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) – Financial Resources Report. The 2045 LRTP was adopted in November 2019 and is updated every five years. To split a fine hair, there are only five cents of "Second Local Option Gas Tax" available to levy; the sixth cent of the increase is the "Ninth-Cent Gas Tax" – this is (somewhat) significant because the two sources have slightly different rules on sharing and use.

From the LRTP Report

Quote
Second LOGT (Five Cents)
The 1993 Florida Legislature extended the scope of the Local Option Gas Tax to include an additional fuel tax of up to five cents per gallon on motor fuel, including gasohol. Diesel fuel is not subject to this tax. Implementation of the second tax of one to five cents per gallon requires a majority plus one vote of the county commissioners. The proceeds of the tax must still be shared with municipalities, either by a mutually agreed upon distribution scheme, or by using the state formula. Pursuant to Section 336, Florida Statutes, local governments may only use revenues from the tax for transportation expenditures needed to meet the requirements of the capital improvements element of an adopted comprehensive plan.
...
Ninth-Cent Gas Tax
The Ninth-Cent Gas Tax was initially authorized in 1972 by the Florida Legislature. The tax is limited to one cent per gallon on highway fuels. ... The 1993 Florida Legislature allowed a county's government body to impose the tax by a majority plus one vote of its membership, without holding the referendum.

Counties are not required to share revenue from the Ninth-Cent Gas Tax with municipalities; however, the proceeds of the tax may be shared with cities in whatever proportion is mutually agreed upon and used for county or municipal transportation purposes.

In Duval County, the "majority plus one vote" for both taxes would be 11 "yes" votes. It appears the five cents of the Second LOGT would have to be shared with Baldwin and the three Beaches cities, while the 9th-Cent could be shared, but does not have to be.  I haven't studied the Draft Project List, so I don't know what, if any, projects are in the four municipalities, and if that would satisfy the requirement for sharing the gas tax revenue.

They should definitely toss more Emerald Trail projects into this.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 11, 2021, 08:52:39 AM
I think it is important to make clear that a referendum is not needed to pass this gas tax. This City Council can approve it with a "majority plus one" vote - 11 votes.  I hope City Council will hold public meetings dedicated to the gas tax, and not buried as one of dozens of agenda items at regular Council meetings. It will be important for taxpayers to let their Council representatives know how they feel about the proposed list.

The article says

Quote
For instance, an estimated $300-$400 million for septic tank remediation

This must be from General Revenue funds that will no longer have to go to transportation projects?  You can't spend gas tax dollars on non-transportation uses - like septic tanks. Even drainage projects have to be directly related to transportation infrastructure.

Thanks, I clarified what Elsbury was talking about. He said that the revenues from the gas tax (going to transportation projects) could free up money in the general fund that could be used for septic tank remediation. The devil's in the details, but if his numbers pan out it would be a good chunk of the backlog.

This project list is where I have some heartache. It's not the money per se, and for programs like this you generally can't pick and choose and be happy with every project on the list.

But, when one project is 85% of JTA's cut of the funding and that one project is ridiculous, that's a problem.
Drop the project and shift the funds to the full construction of Amtrak at JRTC and other projects (since I can't imagine bringing Amtrak to JRTC would be $380M) then I'm all on board and I'll wave a sign supporting it.

As is....I don't know.

Totally understandable. You can't have 1/2 of the pot go to something like that. Also, I was under the impression that they were pursuing federal and state funds for the U2C. If that's the case, the pot should only cover the local 25% of capital costs and switch the rest of that money to more projects all over the city.

Said it in another thread, but throw whatever it takes to get Brightline to Jax. It perfectly aligns with the what gas taxes are supposed to be used for and at the same time is arguably the single biggest economic development play the city can make.

From a Brightline perspective, investing in the Skyway and building density around its stations are very important.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 11, 2021, 01:42:33 PM
From a Brightline perspective, investing in the Skyway and building density around its stations are very important.

LOL.  My prediction is that by the time Brightline makes it to Jax the AV-Skyway will be kaput - even with the $380 million proposed investment.  Too many better alternatives and the City's mismanagement of the urban core will have doomed it.

For intercity to effectively work, you need effective mass transit to move people around the city without the need of a car. The Skyway or whatever thing anyone wants to replace it with, will need to be invested in and/or implemented.

Fund the Emerald Trail in full. Give half the skyway funding to a new commuter rail route, and ask the federal and state government for the remaining portion of each project. If neither gets state/federal funding, then I'd say lump it all into the Skyway. With the real possibility of a big infrastructure bill around the corner, Jax should be positioning themselves to qualify for a lump of it.

Now, to start picking on specific projects not called "U2C"

Quote
Lone Star Road extension: (east of Mill Cove to Trednick Parkway): $3 million

First, three million out of nearly a billion-dollar list of projects isn't a big deal. But, this road already exists. At some point in the last few months, Lone Star was disconnected from the western leg of the roundabout.  Even if they removed all the pavement (which I don't think was done) between the closest street (Mathews Manor) and the roundabout, I can't see it costing $3 million for less than 250 feet of pavement. If the project is to, for some reason, widen the new Lone Star Road, between Mill Creek Road and the roundabout, to 4 lanes, the project description should say so.

(https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/n166/PlanMan/LoneStar.JPG?width=1920&height=1080&fit=bounds)[/URL][/img]

Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 12, 2021, 12:32:33 PM
Now, to start picking on specific projects not called "U2C"

Quote
Lone Star Road extension: (east of Mill Cove to Trednick Parkway): $3 million

First, three million out of nearly a billion-dollar list of projects isn't a big deal. But, this road already exists. At some point in the last few months, Lone Star was disconnected from the western leg of the roundabout.  Even if they removed all the pavement (which I don't think was done) between the closest street (Mathews Manor) and the roundabout, I can't see it costing $3 million for less than 250 feet of pavement. If the project is to, for some reason, widen the new Lone Star Road, between Mill Creek Road and the roundabout, to 4 lanes, the project description should say so.

I noticed this, too. The developer may have built it and rolled it into the CDD or something, but it seemed like an oversight. Also, they list the 5th Street bridge, which is a project I know is currently being designed and is under contract for design and eventual construction under the Department of Public Works. Unless they're proposing supplemental money for a project already underway, I can't imagine why funding would be listed twice.

There's some odd things in this bill of projects...

Soooo... does Curry have bad luck... bad political instincts... bad timing??  He proposes this gas tax increase at the very moment gas prices are rising to their highest in years... people are driving more since few want to be in a airport or terminal.

Just seems odd to me...

Happy Friday!  8)

Quote from: Peter Griffin on March 12, 2021, 01:37:05 PM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 12, 2021, 12:32:33 PM
Now, to start picking on specific projects not called "U2C"

Quote
Lone Star Road extension: (east of Mill Cove to Trednick Parkway): $3 million

First, three million out of nearly a billion-dollar list of projects isn't a big deal. But, this road already exists. At some point in the last few months, Lone Star was disconnected from the western leg of the roundabout.  Even if they removed all the pavement (which I don't think was done) between the closest street (Mathews Manor) and the roundabout, I can't see it costing $3 million for less than 250 feet of pavement. If the project is to, for some reason, widen the new Lone Star Road, between Mill Creek Road and the roundabout, to 4 lanes, the project description should say so.

I noticed this, too. The developer may have built it and rolled it into the CDD or something, but it seemed like an oversight. Also, they list the 5th Street bridge, which is a project I know is currently being designed and is under contract for design and eventual construction under the Department of Public Works. Unless they're proposing supplemental money for a project already underway, I can't imagine why funding would be listed twice.

There's some odd things in this bill of projects...

Those projects are currently 'funded' with monies from general revenue bonds.  In this case, the City would move general revenue bond proceeds to other non-transportation projects, and backfill those current transportation projects with proceeds from the sale of bonds tied to gas tax revenue.  Almost all of the 'new' projects are all on the City's current CIP (like Edgewood Ave road diet), but funding is pushed out into years 3 through 5 (meaning there is no real money to pay for them at this time). The new gas tax bonds (for lack of a better term) would accelerate those 'future' projects by fully funding them.

I understand the swap from the CIP general revenue funding to gas tax funding.
Can someone please explain the Lone Star Road project?

This leads to another question. How easy will it be to change the project list once the gas tax is passed? Is it just a matter of the annual CIP review where projects can be changed by a majority vote of Council? Or will it be more like the Lot J attempt, which required a two-thirds (?) vote (because that was a mid-year amendment)?

Quote from: thelakelander on March 11, 2021, 02:27:38 PM
For intercity to effectively work, you need effective mass transit to move people around the city without the need of a car.

no, no you don't.   800 million domestic flyers prove otherwise.

Brightline is connecting to Orlando at the airport, not a train station.   No sunrail connection.  No Amtrak connection.   They're spending $5Billion saying that ain't needed.

^I was referring to Brightline not flying to cross country hubs. Brightline will have a Sunrail connection at the airport. The platform is already built and this Brightline connection to Disney will be tied in with a Sunrail connection to the airport. Same goes for South Florida via Metrorail and Metromover.

Ah, yes, that context is important.

Not sure it really changes anything.   Brightline _may_ have those things in Orlando.  At this time, they will not.  And they've committed $5+Billion with it being nothing more than a big giant IF.

I'd venture that FDOT's recent press release was an indication that they need something concrete soon.  Or, put another way, Brightline's inability to have something concrete is a sign of their inability to commit.  But that's another story for another thread.   cheers

In general,pretty excited to see the gas tax raised.  Would like to see it raised more and move 90% of roads out of general fund.

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on March 17, 2021, 09:02:45 AM


Ah, yes, that context is important.

Not sure it really changes anything.   Brightline _may_ have those things in Orlando.  At this time, they will not.  And they've committed $5+Billion with it being nothing more than a big giant IF.

I'd venture that FDOT's recent press release was an indication that they need something concrete soon.  Or, put another way, Brightline's inability to have something concrete is a sign of their inability to commit.  But that's another story for another thread.   cheers

Sunrail is FDOT. The plan has always been to get it to the airport and it dates back way before AAF/Virgin/Brightline came on the scene. However, the money hasn't been ponied up yet and won't be anytime soon if it has to be a standalone project. The Brightline connection to Disney actually helps FDOT make that connection on the cheap.

^Brings up a good question.  Why isn't FDOT more involved in rail mass transit planning for Jacksonville?  I only hear about JTA.  Maybe FDOT could take it much further.

^
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/SXky4WRrFuhQCoqXuD/giphy.gif)

The people behind this:

(https://photos.moderncities.com/Cities/Jacksonville/Transportation/I-95-Express-Lanes/i-j8MLXbW/0/145f6833/L/I-95%20EL%20-%20DDI%20Exhibit-L.jpg)

And this:

(https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ipd/images/project_profiles/img_fl_i4ultimate.jpg)

Are generally not going to put a ton of effort into rail-based transit.

FDOT was a partner in the plan to run Amtrak down the FEC a decade ago. FDOT actually put up their share of the cash. As for Sunrail, FDOT isn't paying for it forever. It will soon be the local's responsibility.

The campaign for the gas tax is officially underway, as "Jobs for Jax".

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/city-leaders-launch-campaign-to-increase-extend-duval-county-gas-tax

Quote"I understand there are people who are philosophically opposed to taxes no matter what, and I respect that position. But you fund projects with tax dollars. It's time we get stuff down and we get it done now," Curry said.

QuoteFor JTA, the biggest spending would be $371.96 million for two projects to rehabilitate, expand and retrofit the Downtown Skyway.

The money would pay to adapt the elevated monorail track to support the automated vehicles in JTA's Ultimate Urban Circulator.

The gas tax revenue also would allow JTA to expand the Skyway to Riverside and Five Points, Springfield, UF Health Jacksonville and Jacksonville's Southside medical complex corridor.

I'm not crazy about spending that kind of money on the Skyway but I'm for raising the gas tax. Jax investing in itself is way overdue.

^ I can only support this if the $372 million for the AV-Skyway is removed.  That is 41% of the total raised and a complete waste of money on a project everyone knows will fail in the tradition of prior failings of the Skyway.

It is unimaginable that sane people can support this project and it will just siphon off what little support there is for Downtown among suburbanites.

^ Removed is maybe a strong word, I imagine they're not going to cut two cents from the gas tax. And I'm not 100% opposed to using a little bit of the money to play with the technology. But for $378 million they could do a lot of other stuff that would likely be more impactful than the world's first urban self-driving taxi network.

If it were up to me, with my amateur opinion, I'd say use it like so:

• ~$40 million to build an Amtrak terminal per this (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2010-jul-bringing-amtrak-to-downtown-jacksonville-inexpensively), perhaps with support from this (https://www.greatamericanstations.com/) program if possible. Make sure it's ready for the obvious possibility of Brightline coming to town. Ideally somewhere along the way we'd have figured out a convention center solution.
• ~$20 million to overhaul the existing Skyway (which JTA already seems to be doing). Just to get another 10-15 years out of the existing system.
• ~200 million to build streetcar extensions into the areas already planned for U2C. Long-term, I'd seek to either use vehicles capable of using the Skyway guideways or eventually just demolishing them in favor of the streetcar, assuming that's another ~$25 million (cost of actually building the streetcar connectors would have to come from somewhere else).
• ~$15 million on establishing a RiverLink (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php?topic=36698.0) between Orange Park Mall and Avenues Walk. (I'd like to think this is too much, I'm just not sure. If so, give the money to the next item.)
• ~$30 million to establish BRT (or just better bus service) to places we haven't historically connected, like the beaches via JTB or on Southside Blvd.
• ~$48 million (the remainder) on further AV development, in hopes of it eventually serving as a circulator for places we wouldn't traditionally build heavier transit services in, like master planned communities or college campuses. I've always thought they would be a great replacement for safe rides if they can figure out traffic and pedestrians.

Lake, aeyou going to post a story about your meeting with Ford?

I'll provide an update. I haven't met with him yet.

Quote from: thelakelander on March 17, 2021, 09:36:33 AM

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on March 17, 2021, 09:02:45 AM


Ah, yes, that context is important.

Not sure it really changes anything.   Brightline _may_ have those things in Orlando.  At this time, they will not.  And they've committed $5+Billion with it being nothing more than a big giant IF.

I'd venture that FDOT's recent press release was an indication that they need something concrete soon.  Or, put another way, Brightline's inability to have something concrete is a sign of their inability to commit.  But that's another story for another thread.   cheers

Sunrail is FDOT. The plan has always been to get it to the airport and it dates back way before AAF/Virgin/Brightline came on the scene. However, the money hasn't been ponied up yet and won't be anytime soon if it has to be a standalone project. The Brightline connection to Disney actually helps FDOT make that connection on the cheap.

I hope your right.  But I'm not sure what cheap is.  It'll cost Brightline a billion to do Disney springs.   Sunrail was looking at $250M - $400M to get the airport.

My concern is that this gets spun up an way where SunRail's on the hook for $300M + they call it a great deal.  When in reality, it's what it would've cost SunRail without the Brightline crap.


Another question, whatever the deal, can they do it in a way that ensures Sunrail service is not interrupted  [ if | when ] Brighline goes belly-up? 

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on March 22, 2021, 10:50:52 AM
I hope your right.  But I'm not sure what cheap is.  It'll cost Brightline a billion to do Disney springs.   Sunrail was looking at $250M - $400M to get the airport.

My concern is that this gets spun up an way where SunRail's on the hook for $300M + they call it a great deal.  When in reality, it's what it would've cost SunRail without the Brightline crap.


Another question, whatever the deal, can they do it in a way that ensures Sunrail service is not interrupted  [ if | when ] Brighline goes belly-up?

Well, 300 million USD would probably be a win for the expanded route from Disney through OIA to Innovation Way, but I get the basis of your point. It shouldn't cost Sunrail more to do the route with Brightline than without.

Sunrail to the airport isn't likely happening anytime soon without Brightline. FDOT will be giving that system to the locals to maintain and operate soon. So I wouldn't hold my breathe on that extension to DeLand or the airport coming soon as a standalone project.

Jack Rowan had a great guest column in the Times Union today, featuring ethical concerns I wasn't aware of. The whole article is excellent but I'll post the two points of interest.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-ethical-dilemmas-gas-tax/5081120001/

QuoteOn the ethics front, the gas tax bill removes the requirement that citizen members of the two oversight committees must be free of conflicts with projects funded by the tax. If not placed back in by an amendment, members from construction companies that could benefit from getting city business could become a part of the decision-making process. This is a major red flag that lends credence to some who claim that the Mayor's Office put the proposal forward for underhanded reasons. If the Council wants to prevent this tax from being smeared, they must bring back these protections against conflicts of interest.

The bill also runs into issues with the amount of power that the Mayor's Office receives within this bill. In the committees, the Mayor gets to appoint two members, his appointee to JTA gets to appoint two more members, and Lenny's right-hand man, Brian Hughes, would sit on the committee. This effectively grants the executive a majority on the committees that will have a significant role in dolling out financing and contracts. This would be the most concerning aspect if it weren't for the final part of the committee's composition. Being the man at the helm of the disasters that were Lot J and the attempted sale of JEA (which led to the current federal grand jury investigation), Brian Hughes should not be allowed within a thousand miles of these funds.

Also an op-ed from Councilwoman Cumber, she's an outright no on the gas tax, also appealing for a referendum.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-why-raising-gas-tax-bad-idea/5080983001/

QuoteLower-income residents tend to live farther from work, school and basic needs – like grocery stores -- causing them to purchase more gas. Lower-income residents tend to drive older, less fuel-efficient cars.

Why does it have to be this way? The question I'd have for Cumber and other council members is what are they doing to invest in the infrastructure in lower income areas that will lead to economic development within these communities? What are they doing to enhance mass transit to make long commutes reliable, enabling people the choice of saving money by not having cars? What are they doing so that people can walk to work, a good school or a variety of shops within their neighborhoods? What are we doing to change the inequitable status quo?

QuoteRetrofitting an automated monorail with automated cars is moving in the wrong direction. Transportation policy experts disagree on how to fund infrastructure, but most agree that adding cars to streets to promote growth and investment is bad policy. That this project is being billed as pedestrian friendly mass transit is absurd. This project will take parking right-of-way on Bay Street that could be used for bike lanes and outdoor café seating. A six-to-eight-passenger vehicle does not, by any rational definition, qualify as pedestrian friendly, mass transit. A driverless car is still just a car. That is the fallacy of the Skyway/U2C.

I do agree 100% with Cumber on this point!

Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2021, 01:06:32 AM

QuoteLower-income residents tend to live farther from work, school and basic needs – like grocery stores -- causing them to purchase more gas. Lower-income residents tend to drive older, less fuel-efficient cars.

Why does it have to be this way? The question I'd have for Cumber and other council members is what are they doing to invest in the infrastructure in lower income areas that will lead to economic development within these communities? What are they doing to enhance mass transit to make long commutes reliable, enabling people the choice of saving money by not having cars? What are they doing so that people can walk to work, a good school or a variety of shops within their neighborhoods? What are we doing to change the inequitable status quo?

Also, I'm not sure it's accurate to say our "lowest" income residents are the ones with old cars living far away from their jobs. More likely, our most vulnerable populations have no car and probably live fairly close to downtown, in long-neglected neighborhoods. I'll concede CM Cumber's point that the gas tax is somewhat regressive in nature, but our most vulnerable population won't pay a cent of the tax directly. Quite the contrary, having car owners fund improvements to bus stops and mass transit for people who cannot afford a car is pretty progressive in my mind. Also, minor quibble--some of our richest suburbs are quite far from downtown.

One of the most maddening things about the JTA list is that our most transit dependent and vulnerable populations won't directly benefit for the U2C. We could easily slice headways down on many major routes with the amount of funding the tax could generate. Instead, we're going to invest those hundreds of millions on a gimmick that will serve very few.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2021, 08:19:50 PM
One of the most maddening things about the JTA list is that our most transit dependent and vulnerable populations won't directly benefit for the U2C. We could easily slice headways down on many major routes with the amount of funding the tax could generate. Instead, we're going to invest those hundreds of millions on a gimmick that will serve very few.

Ah, but consider, Lake! By spending all this money, people might just decide that Jacksonville is now a desirable place to live, and decide to move here en masse! Rapidly transforming our city into a global leader in digital innovation! You know, because people decide to live in a place based on whether it has, uh, Internet of Things, 5G communications systems, and autonomous vehicles!

Of course, that doesn't mean Nat Ford, one of "our city's most innovative leaders," can't try to sell it based on the hypothetical concept that one day (not even using the same technology we're trying to buy now) some old lady might be able to request an autonomous vehicle to her house using her smartphone (because old people are great at that!) to take her to the supermarket.

I detect sarcasm. Are you saying city- run rideshare requiring a smartphone and credit card may not be the most effective mobility solution for low income residents? Where's your vision?   ;D

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 16, 2021, 12:48:47 AM
Also an op-ed from Councilwoman Cumber, she's an outright no on the gas tax, also appealing for a referendum.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-why-raising-gas-tax-bad-idea/5080983001/

Pretty sure she's got her timelines confused. BTTF2 is 1989 and American Pie is 1999 ;)

LOL, I was wondering about that. She probably should have just gone with the BTTF reference.

Quote from: tufsu1 on May 17, 2021, 11:00:07 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 16, 2021, 12:48:47 AM
Also an op-ed from Councilwoman Cumber, she's an outright no on the gas tax, also appealing for a referendum.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-why-raising-gas-tax-bad-idea/5080983001/

Pretty sure she's got her timelines confused. BTTF2 is 1989 and American Pie is 1999 ;)

American Pie the song which came out in 1971.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 16, 2021, 12:29:53 AM
Jack Rowan had a great guest column in the Times Union today, featuring ethical concerns I wasn't aware of. The whole article is excellent but I'll post the two points of interest.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-ethical-dilemmas-gas-tax/5081120001/

QuoteOn the ethics front, the gas tax bill removes the requirement that citizen members of the two oversight committees must be free of conflicts with projects funded by the tax. If not placed back in by an amendment, members from construction companies that could benefit from getting city business could become a part of the decision-making process. This is a major red flag that lends credence to some who claim that the Mayor's Office put the proposal forward for underhanded reasons. If the Council wants to prevent this tax from being smeared, they must bring back these protections against conflicts of interest.

The bill also runs into issues with the amount of power that the Mayor's Office receives within this bill. In the committees, the Mayor gets to appoint two members, his appointee to JTA gets to appoint two more members, and Lenny's right-hand man, Brian Hughes, would sit on the committee. This effectively grants the executive a majority on the committees that will have a significant role in dolling out financing and contracts. This would be the most concerning aspect if it weren't for the final part of the committee's composition. Being the man at the helm of the disasters that were Lot J and the attempted sale of JEA (which led to the current federal grand jury investigation), Brian Hughes should not be allowed within a thousand miles of these funds.

I think he went a little too hard in the paint slamming Curry and his crew, but nonetheless, that was a very impressive bit of political analysis from an undergrad college student.

One thing that I'm not sure I've seen discussed anywhere, but perhaps Lake, TUFSU, Charles Hunter or one of our transportation gurus can fill me in...have the gas tax revenue projections factored the increased usage of electric cars, autonomous vehicles, and other alternate forms of transportation that will be more prevalent in the future? Or are they still assuming the status quo?

QuoteI think he went a little too hard in the paint slamming Curry and his crew, but nonetheless, that was a very impressive bit of political analysis from an undergrad college student.

Impressive indeed. Is he Nate Monroe's younger brother, by any chance? Brother by another mother??

That is meant as a compliment, btw.   

Quote from: CityLife on May 17, 2021, 11:54:19 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 16, 2021, 12:29:53 AM
Jack Rowan had a great guest column in the Times Union today, featuring ethical concerns I wasn't aware of. The whole article is excellent but I'll post the two points of interest.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2021/05/16/guest-column-ethical-dilemmas-gas-tax/5081120001/

QuoteOn the ethics front, the gas tax bill removes the requirement that citizen members of the two oversight committees must be free of conflicts with projects funded by the tax. If not placed back in by an amendment, members from construction companies that could benefit from getting city business could become a part of the decision-making process. This is a major red flag that lends credence to some who claim that the Mayor's Office put the proposal forward for underhanded reasons. If the Council wants to prevent this tax from being smeared, they must bring back these protections against conflicts of interest.

The bill also runs into issues with the amount of power that the Mayor's Office receives within this bill. In the committees, the Mayor gets to appoint two members, his appointee to JTA gets to appoint two more members, and Lenny's right-hand man, Brian Hughes, would sit on the committee. This effectively grants the executive a majority on the committees that will have a significant role in dolling out financing and contracts. This would be the most concerning aspect if it weren't for the final part of the committee's composition. Being the man at the helm of the disasters that were Lot J and the attempted sale of JEA (which led to the current federal grand jury investigation), Brian Hughes should not be allowed within a thousand miles of these funds.

I think he went a little too hard in the paint slamming Curry and his crew, but nonetheless, that was a very impressive bit of political analysis from an undergrad college student.

One thing that I'm not sure I've seen discussed anywhere, but perhaps Lake, TUFSU, Charles Hunter or one of our transportation gurus can fill me in...have the gas tax revenue projections factored the increased usage of electric cars, autonomous vehicles, and other alternate forms of transportation that will be more prevalent in the future? Or are they still assuming the status quo?

From my understanding, they factor this in. If we don't do a LOGT now, the potential revenue will be lower as time goes on.

Quote from: vicupstate on May 17, 2021, 12:02:07 PM

QuoteI think he went a little too hard in the paint slamming Curry and his crew, but nonetheless, that was a very impressive bit of political analysis from an undergrad college student.

Impressive indeed. Is he Nate Monroe's younger brother, by any chance? Brother by another mother??

That is meant as a compliment, btw.

Haha. Looks like he's FSU's answer to Marcus. Point to Mr. Rowan. The ball is in your court now Marcus.

These two are single handedly smashing Gen Z stereotypes in front of our eyes.

Moved to this thread as it's more on-topic here.

Something else that's been bothering me about the argument against the tax is the federal money angle.

Argument #1: We should wait for all the money we're going to get from the federal infrastructure bill.
Rebuttals:

• The actual legislation is in the "executive branch wish list" phase. Timing, if it passes at all, is highly uncertain.
• No guarantee that the bill passes.
• If the bill passes, no guarantee on the amount Jacksonville will receive.
• If Jacksonville receives anything, strings or restrictions may be attached.
• If local revenue matching is expected to win said federal money, we're right back to the LOGT.
• The same council members who are anti-tax on the LOGT are somehow okay with a mega-sized federal tax-and-spend initiative? I'd far rather have my taxes raised at the local level where 100% of the funds go into my community. This one smacks of hypocrisy. The party of independence, home rule, and small government opts out of handling infrastructure in-house so they can bolster their ideological street cred while happily accepting the benefits of an opposition-led spending program they ought to abhor.
• If a federal windfall arrives late this year or next year, they can always revisit the project list to take advantage of the funding. Goodness knows we have far more infrastructure work beyond the proposed list to tackle.

Argument #2: We should just use the money from the American Rescue Plan for septic tank removal.
Rebuttals:

• Not all of the $343 million can reasonably be directed to septic tanks. I'm sure there are still needs in the community related to COVID-19 that should take priority, not to mention the local district pork the political process tends to create.
• Even if all $343 million could be directed to septic tanks, it's a problem that will take billions to fix. The $343 million AND the general fund relief from the gas tax combined still aren't enough to fully fund septic tank removals. It is very short-sighted to be thinking only about funding the next few years. The $100 million before Council now is just a start. Instead of funding the septic conversion from one source or another, how about dedicating funding from multiple sources to solve this 50 year old problem? Get as much money as you can for it and put it in a lockbox to pay for the work as quickly as it can be completed so we're not having this conversation again in 3 years.
• This is a one-time windfall. How do you fund the rest? Where do you find room in the general fund for all those infrastructure projects the LOGT will fund? Won't it be difficult to bond hundreds of millions in giveaways to the Jaguars if we have to fund silly things like infrastructure with our own debt? (Looking at you, Lot J "yes" votes)

For all the talk on Council of long-overdue infrastructure needs, the arguments being made against the LOGT seem to shrug our deficiencies off as a one-time problem a little federal funding (or maybe some local debt) could fix, and then we could get right back to being perfect ol' Jacksonville again. But the Better Jacksonville Plan, Curry's pension tax extension, and the half-cent for schools are prima facie evidence the City has an ongoing revenue problem. For Council members against the LOGT, craft an alternative that pays for itself. Show us all the waste that turns our abundance of revenue into a shortfall for funding basic needs, and then file legislation to fix it.

All those alternative proposals are basically suggestions to maintain the status quo. Every suggestion being offered up as an alternative to the LOGT should instead be done in addition to the LOGT.

Quote from: CityLife on May 17, 2021, 02:00:48 PM
Haha. Looks like he's FSU's answer to Marcus. Point to Mr. Rowan. The ball is in your court now Marcus.

These two are single handedly smashing Gen Z stereotypes in front of our eyes.

Haha, I've spoken to Jack before, we don't see eye to eye on everything but he's a good guy. I guess it's back to me to write something else. I've had a few ideas actually, just haven't fleshed them out yet.

One thing I was thinking about was how $930 million in I-95 widening was quietly funded with the stroke of a pen, but we're amidst this heavyweight fight over spending the same amount on much more expansive and useful stuff (U2C aside) than extra lanes of highway that will almost certainly fill up immediately, after spending years causing utter chaos from all the construction.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 17, 2021, 04:44:24 PM
For all the talk on Council of long-overdue infrastructure needs, the arguments being made against the LOGT seem to shrug our deficiencies off as a one-time problem a little federal funding (or maybe some local debt) could fix, and then we could get right back to being perfect ol' Jacksonville again. But the Better Jacksonville Plan, Curry's pension tax extension, and the half-cent for schools are prima facie evidence the City has an ongoing revenue problem. For Council members against the LOGT, craft an alternative that pays for itself. Show us all the waste that turns our abundance of revenue into a shortfall for funding basic needs, and then file legislation to fix it.

Pretty much what Lake said. If anything, we should be passing this gas tax and Councilman Becton's loan (although probably not for just more roads) and utilizing the American Rescue Plan money and looking forward to the potential opportunities of the American Jobs Plan, if and in whatever form it passes in. This is absolutely not the time to cover one's eyes or ears and pretend that there are no real infrastructure needs in Jacksonville, nor that we are incapable of addressing those needs ourselves.

Following that column from the other day and pretending that a bunch of "digital infrastructure" is going to make us a "global leader in digital innovation" would probably be silly, but investing in complete streets and trail networks and sewer systems, making sure the place is clean and easy to get around? Policy that focuses on building housing that's practical and affordable for young families to get started here? Why not? Talk about visionary leadership for a moment and actually have a vision for making this city beautiful! (sorry Orlando)

Also:

QuoteThe same council members who are anti-tax on the LOGT are somehow okay with a mega-sized federal tax-and-spend initiative? I'd far rather have my taxes raised at the local level where 100% of the funds go into my community. This one smacks of hypocrisy. The party of independence, home rule, and small government opts out of handling infrastructure in-house so they can bolster their ideological street cred while happily accepting the benefits of an opposition-led spending program they ought to abhor.

If any of the people in question were in Congress right now, I'd bet you all the money in my wallet that they would be fighting tooth and nail against the American Jobs Plan, only to crow over the money it gives their district once it passes without their vote. Hell, we'll get to watch John Rutherford do exactly that.

QuoteDuval voters opposed to gas tax hike, Skyway spending

Duval County residents are opposed to a bill to increasing the city's gas tax but if there is one, they don't want the money spent on the Downtown Skyway, according to a poll released May 18 by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.

Mayor Lenny Curry and the Jacksonville Transportation Authority want to increase the gas tax from 6 cents to 12 cents per gallon to pay for nearly $1 billion in infrastructure projects. City Council is debating the legislation, Ordinance 2021-0223.

Asked whether they support or oppose the bill, the poll found 58% of respondents either strongly or somewhat oppose it.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/duval-voters-opposed-to-gas-tax-hike-skyway-spending

Most of Jacksonville opposes this gas tax?  NOt a shocker.  No one is out there with a proposal that benefits all of the city. 

From the start the proposal had bad optics, poorly half of it's money into something no one uses that runs a few blocks downtown.

And now the new "alternative" to that is to put less money into that unused thing and to...... put a bunch of that money into trails that 90% of the people in the city will never use.

Are they any politicians in this city that know that you can't sell something to the city if they don't feel like they're going to benefit from it?

Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2021, 09:04:25 AM

QuoteDuval voters opposed to gas tax hike, Skyway spending

Duval County residents are opposed to a bill to increasing the city's gas tax but if there is one, they don't want the money spent on the Downtown Skyway, according to a poll released May 18 by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.

Mayor Lenny Curry and the Jacksonville Transportation Authority want to increase the gas tax from 6 cents to 12 cents per gallon to pay for nearly $1 billion in infrastructure projects. City Council is debating the legislation, Ordinance 2021-0223.

Asked whether they support or oppose the bill, the poll found 58% of respondents either strongly or somewhat oppose it.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/duval-voters-opposed-to-gas-tax-hike-skyway-spending

I received this survey and took it. I wish they would have asked a couple more questions to tease out what the public really has an issue with. One glaring omission was asking the public whether they supported debt financing for the septic tank phase out. It's easy to say, "We want the work done but don't want to raise taxes." But what do the numbers look like if you position the choice between debt and taxes instead of a unilateral up-or-down on the tax?

Separately, you have 58% against the bill but 34% of respondents indicated zero funding for the Skyway is their ideal. How many of those 34% are represented in the 58% because of the Skyway's inclusion? How many of them become in favor if the Skyway is removed? I believe you might actually tip the scales to majority support for the LOGT if you axe the Skyway spending entirely.

QuoteAsked about spending on the Emerald Trail, 54% said at least $150 million should be allocated to funding it, with 23% indicating even more should be spent. [...]
"An enormous majority, 87%, think that less money should be allocated to the Skyway than the original proposal, many of whom think the number should be zero," Binder said. The Emerald Trail fared somewhat better, but voters aren't terribly excited about spending money on either project."

77% in favor of $150M or more to the Emerald Trail doesn't indicate strong support? Not sure I agree with that analysis.

QuoteAnd now the new "alternative" to that is to put less money into that unused thing and to...... put a bunch of that money into trails that 90% of the people in the city will never use.

Don't underestimate the impact of a good trail system. Here in Greenville, our trail system is about 20 years old. Not only has it been the most used recreational facility county-wide (by an order of magnitude), it has also been a economic development powerhouse. More people use the trail in a year than live in the county.  The parts of the county that got the original lines are booming with new homes and businesses.  Any area that wasn't included originally are vigorously trying to get included in the future expansions. 

Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2021, 09:04:25 AM

QuoteDuval voters opposed to gas tax hike, Skyway spending

Duval County residents are opposed to a bill to increasing the city's gas tax but if there is one, they don't want the money spent on the Downtown Skyway, according to a poll released May 18 by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.

Mayor Lenny Curry and the Jacksonville Transportation Authority want to increase the gas tax from 6 cents to 12 cents per gallon to pay for nearly $1 billion in infrastructure projects. City Council is debating the legislation, Ordinance 2021-0223.

Asked whether they support or oppose the bill, the poll found 58% of respondents either strongly or somewhat oppose it.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/duval-voters-opposed-to-gas-tax-hike-skyway-spending

Polls can be very useful for simple opinions like, do you support gay marriage? Do you support gun control? Do believe abortion is ok?

However, they should be completely discounted for complex issues that have layers and layers of nuance. How many participants in the poll know that Clay and Nassau both have 12 cent gas taxes? How many know that Jax will be capturing a ton of gas tax revenue from out of state visitors (some of whom are simply driving through) and residents of surrounding counties that heavily use Jax's roads...Or that it can be regressive and disproportionately affect lower income residents? Or understand the strategy to remove transportation related items from the CIP to fund other improvements?

It's an extremely complex issue. I've loosely followed it and have a fairly strong understanding of planning, municipal finance, and politics; and I don't think I could even properly vote on whether it is the right decision or not. There's no way that Joe Wesconnett or Kristy Moncrief can.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2021, 09:04:25 AM

QuoteDuval voters opposed to gas tax hike, Skyway spending

Duval County residents are opposed to a bill to increasing the city's gas tax but if there is one, they don't want the money spent on the Downtown Skyway, according to a poll released May 18 by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.

Mayor Lenny Curry and the Jacksonville Transportation Authority want to increase the gas tax from 6 cents to 12 cents per gallon to pay for nearly $1 billion in infrastructure projects. City Council is debating the legislation, Ordinance 2021-0223.

Asked whether they support or oppose the bill, the poll found 58% of respondents either strongly or somewhat oppose it.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/duval-voters-opposed-to-gas-tax-hike-skyway-spending

"The data shows voters want the improvements without the additional gas tax."

Lol. Yup.

^ Thinking about this quote from Mark Woods' article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2021/05/14/gas-tax-could-move-quality-life-needle/5081389001/) about the gas tax.

QuoteSome pointed to other cities and said: Why don't we have this or that?

We do this often. And the answer typically is: This or that costs money.

So beyond asking people if they support a gas tax, it's worth asking if they want road improvements, septic tank removal, a park system that lives up to its potential, a city that doesn't perpetually rank as one of the worst for pedestrians and bicyclists, the kind of place that makes young people want to stay and Fortune 500 companies want to arrive.

Not that this gas tax alone will do all of this. But it can move the needle on something that's hard to quantify: quality of life.

Apple recently chose to put its latest East Coast expansion — a $1 billion campus that will have 3,000 employees — not in the supposedly business-friendly climate of the Sunshine State, but in Raleigh, N.C.

Some have noted that this is despite North Carolina having higher taxes than Florida. But maybe it's actually because North Carolina has higher taxes, or at least because it has some of the things that come with those taxes.

In Jacksonville, we seem to be quick to invest public dollars in private projects and slow to take public dollars and use them for public projects.

It's almost as if people see the way their taxes are currently being piss-poorly managed and would rather see improvement in that category before another tax is passed. Having the skyway expansion originally tagged as a reason behind the tax didn't exactly help.

Committee of the Whole
Carlucci Emerald Trail amendment passes 14-4

Cumber amendment, restricting JTA from using LOGT for prior commitments (?)
Passes 13-5

Cimber amendment, removing JTA appointments from LOGT Oversight Committee, which oversees all projects, JTA and COJ, and existing BJP projects
Currently would be 4 by Council, 4 by JTA, and 4 by Mayor
Fails 2-16

Cumber amendment 'revolving door' amendment (if work on LOGT for COJ/JTA cannot work for private firm working on LOGT projects for 2 years)
Mirrors existing language is city code and state law - to emphasize desire for post City employment restrictions
Pass 11-7

Ferraro amendment - requires Referendum
Would delay collection to Jan. 2023 with Referendum in the 2022 cycle (August or November?)
Failed 5-13


[side note - the Council's sound system sux, microphones keep cutting out]

Bowman amendment - 10-year LOGT at 3 cents/gallon; commits to projects within the "old city"
[Comcast did a weekly emergency system test, so I didn't hear the explanation of the amendment]
Fails 4-13

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 18, 2021, 02:37:00 PM
^ Thinking about this quote from Mark Woods' article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2021/05/14/gas-tax-could-move-quality-life-needle/5081389001/) about the gas tax.

QuoteSome pointed to other cities and said: Why don't we have this or that?

We do this often. And the answer typically is: This or that costs money.

So beyond asking people if they support a gas tax, it's worth asking if they want road improvements, septic tank removal, a park system that lives up to its potential, a city that doesn't perpetually rank as one of the worst for pedestrians and bicyclists, the kind of place that makes young people want to stay and Fortune 500 companies want to arrive.

Not that this gas tax alone will do all of this. But it can move the needle on something that's hard to quantify: quality of life.

Apple recently chose to put its latest East Coast expansion — a $1 billion campus that will have 3,000 employees — not in the supposedly business-friendly climate of the Sunshine State, but in Raleigh, N.C.

Some have noted that this is despite North Carolina having higher taxes than Florida. But maybe it's actually because North Carolina has higher taxes, or at least because it has some of the things that come with those taxes.

In Jacksonville, we seem to be quick to invest public dollars in private projects and slow to take public dollars and use them for public projects.

This is a ridiculous argument by Woods that fails to understand corporate dynamics at all. Right now, it's all about talent and Raleigh/Durham has Duke, UNC, and NC State within 30 minutes of each other and Wake Forest down the road. Has he ever been to Raleigh or Durham? It doesn't scream nicer amenities. The truth is that the connection to Gainesville and UF is vitally important to attracting high paying jobs to Northeast Florida with JU and UNF as complements.

Diamond amendment - each of the 14 council districts would get 3% minimum of the LOGT proceeds
Fails 5-12

Quote from: FlaBoy on May 19, 2021, 10:48:48 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 18, 2021, 02:37:00 PM
^ Thinking about this quote from Mark Woods' article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2021/05/14/gas-tax-could-move-quality-life-needle/5081389001/) about the gas tax.

QuoteSome pointed to other cities and said: Why don't we have this or that?

We do this often. And the answer typically is: This or that costs money.

So beyond asking people if they support a gas tax, it's worth asking if they want road improvements, septic tank removal, a park system that lives up to its potential, a city that doesn't perpetually rank as one of the worst for pedestrians and bicyclists, the kind of place that makes young people want to stay and Fortune 500 companies want to arrive.

Not that this gas tax alone will do all of this. But it can move the needle on something that's hard to quantify: quality of life.

Apple recently chose to put its latest East Coast expansion — a $1 billion campus that will have 3,000 employees — not in the supposedly business-friendly climate of the Sunshine State, but in Raleigh, N.C.

Some have noted that this is despite North Carolina having higher taxes than Florida. But maybe it's actually because North Carolina has higher taxes, or at least because it has some of the things that come with those taxes.

In Jacksonville, we seem to be quick to invest public dollars in private projects and slow to take public dollars and use them for public projects.

This is a ridiculous argument by Woods that fails to understand corporate dynamics at all. Right now, it's all about talent and Raleigh/Durham has Duke, UNC, and NC State within 30 minutes of each other and Wake Forest down the road. Has he ever been to Raleigh or Durham? It doesn't scream nicer amenities. The truth is that the connection to Gainesville and UF is vitally important to attracting high paying jobs to Northeast Florida with JU and UNF as complements.

Your point is well taken about the relative dearth of talent here vs. the research triangle,  but I think Mr. Woods is 100% correct on the bolded selections above (emphasis mine). It all goes back to throwing hundreds of millions at high-risk "game-changers" and consistently failing to do the little things right.

Yes, we're seeing it play out right now with the LOGT. The majority of council members opposing the LOGT were more than ready to give hundreds of millions in tax money away to Lot J a couple of months ago.

Dennis amendment - require use of local, certified JSEB*/DBE companies for $250 million of the nearly $1 billion project list
[Comcast lost signal from COJ]
* JSEB = Jacksonville Small and Emerging Businesses
Pass 17-0

Floor Amendment by Priestly-Jackson to strike Soutel Road road-diet from the LOGT project list (funds were previously removed, makes list congruent with prior action - funds will stay in her district)
Pass 17-0

This is the last amendment.

Action on the bill as amended 8 times (or is it 7?) by the Committee of the Whole, will go to City Council next week.
To come out of CotW, simple majority (10 votes), to pass LOGT at Council requires 11 votes
Diamond - no comments
Bowman - will offer amendment next week @ 4 cents for 20 years, voting "no" today as it is not needs-driven
Ferraro - can be done w/out raising taxes, will vote No
Salem - voting Yes to free up funds for septic tank replacement, fund Emerald Trail, other bike/ped facilities
Boylan - can't support today, community involvement lacking, lack of communication of benefits of projects, prospect of future federal funds that may reduce need for as much LOGT - would like to table until next week to get more answers
Defoor - will vote out of CotW, still not comfortable, has not made up mind on vote at Council
Carlucci - job creation, septic tanks, Emerald Trail, invest in community - yes
Newby - yes, sometimes need to raise taxes to better community - infrastructure, Emerald Trail, broken promises of Consolidation
Priestly-Jackson - yes, Nassau and Clay already at 12 cents, majority of Florida counties levy 12 cents; quality of life issues for neglected communities, unmet promises, JTA are forward-thinking experts, jobs
Morgan - yes today, will continue to listen to constituents before final vote, jobs, JSEB, need more discussion on some projects
White - yes
Pittman - yes, Mr. Ford (JTA) and team are knowledgeable, innovative, make life better for children and grandchildren, jobs
Carrico - my town hall meeting is tomorrow, seek deferral
Cumber - no, quarter-of-a-billion dollars will go to existing Skyway structure, we have greater needs, only thing in the law is JTA's share
Gaffney - yes, believe in moving forward, JTA and small businesses
Freeman - yes, fulfill broken promises
Becton - no, ignore third option, his bill (2021-289) to fund infrastructure projects without raising taxes, LOGT bill is all about raising taxes, cost of living going up, sold as jobs bill - oversell, mortgaging children/grandchildren's future, my district isn't getting anything
Hazouri - yes, historical, continue to listen to public, bring amendments to committee if needed, working with Mayor has been open and a partnership, have to also pass septic tank bill - $100M over 2 years

Boylan - move to defer, have another CotW meeting next Tuesday at 4PM (OGC - there is a conflicting meeting at that time)
hand vote [sound cut out]  - change to 3pm Tuesday - must have failed

Vote on Bill as Amended
Pass 13-6

Bill 2021-235 - Septic Tank Remediation,
Mayor's Office - uses freed-up CIP funds from LOGT, to provide $50 million in each of next 2 years for septic tank phase-out
Septic Tank needs over $1 billion. JEA has committed $70 million. Also seeking federal and state funds to extend the local funds.

2 technical amendments from Auditor - both passed by voice vote

Bowman proposing amendment to waive first year of sewer service charge ($21.15) - will file formally next week
Cumber - why won't Mayor commit to adding $200 million of federal funds (out of about $343M of federal funds available). Response - we haven't received the funds yet, will have to come before Council when available; may file amendment to require use of $200M federal funds
Salem - many demands on that money, premature to tie it down
Boylan - agree with Salem
Ferraro - the reason for the LOGT is to free up money for septic tanks

No amendments filed besides the 2 technical ones
Pass 17-0

Both bills (LOGT and Septic Tanks) will be addressed at a Special Council Meeting next Wednesday (5/26) at 10 AM, and not at Tuesday night's regular meeting.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 19, 2021, 12:00:14 PM
Action on the bill as amended 8 times (or is it 7?) by the Committee of the Whole, will go to City Council next week.
To come out of CotW, simple majority (10 votes), to pass LOGT at Council requires 11 votes
Diamond - no comments
Bowman - will offer amendment next week @ 4 cents for 20 years, voting "no" today as it is not needs-driven
Ferraro - can be done w/out raising taxes, will vote No
Salem - voting Yes to free up funds for septic tank replacement, fund Emerald Trail, other bike/ped facilities
Boylan - can't support today, community involvement lacking, lack of communication of benefits of projects, prospect of future federal funds that may reduce need for as much LOGT - would like to table until next week to get more answers
Defoor - will vote out of CotW, still not comfortable, has not made up mind on vote at Council
Carlucci - job creation, septic tanks, Emerald Trail, invest in community - yes
Newby - yes, sometimes need to raise taxes to better community - infrastructure, Emerald Trail, broken promises of Consolidation
Priestly-Jackson - yes, Nassau and Clay already at 12 cents, majority of Florida counties levy 12 cents; quality of life issues for neglected communities, unmet promises, JTA are forward-thinking experts, jobs
Morgan - yes today, will continue to listen to constituents before final vote, jobs, JSEB, need more discussion on some projects
White - yes
Pittman - yes, Mr. Ford (JTA) and team are knowledgeable, innovative, make life better for children and grandchildren, jobs
Carrico - my town hall meeting is tomorrow, seek deferral
Cumber - no, quarter-of-a-billion dollars will go to existing Skyway structure, we have greater needs, only thing in the law is JTA's share
Gaffney - yes, believe in moving forward, JTA and small businesses
Freeman - yes, fulfill broken promises
Becton - no, ignore third option, his bill (2021-289) to fund infrastructure projects without raising taxes, LOGT bill is all about raising taxes, cost of living going up, sold as jobs bill - oversell, mortgaging children/grandchildren's future, my district isn't getting anything
Hazouri - yes, historical, continue to listen to public, bring amendments to committee if needed, working with Mayor has been open and a partnership, have to also pass septic tank bill - $100M over 2 years

Boylan - move to defer, have another CotW meeting next Tuesday at 4PM (OGC - there is a conflicting meeting at that time)
hand vote [sound cut out]  - change to 3pm Tuesday - must have failed

Vote on Bill as Amended
Pass 13-6

Knowing Diamond is a no, guessing Defoor is a yes, and Carrico no, the remaining opinions put us at just barely 11-8. Odds are the vote will be close no matter what.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 19, 2021, 09:34:14 AM
Cumber amendment, restricting JTA from using LOGT for prior commitments (?)
Passes 13-5

I think this is Cumber #1 (https://twitter.com/BenBeckerANjax/status/1392447828946034690) on here, which might be meant to prevent them from spending LOGT money on Bay Street.

I couldn't find the table listing all the amendments, so I was going off the discussion. It could apply to Bay Street; I thought it applied to the existing Skyway structure - but don't really know.

To summarize, the Committee of the Whole passed the LOGT bill, as amended, out of committee, to be considered by the full Council at a Special Meeting next Wednesday.  The amendments passed were:

The Carlucci amendment to divert $132 Million from the Skyway to the Emerald Trail (passed 14-4).

Cumber amendment restricting JTA from using LOGT funds for prior commitments.  The Council sound was cutting out during this discussion, so I really have no idea what this does (13-5)

Cumber amendment inserting "revolving door" provisions into the LOGT bill. City or JTA employees who had involvement with the LOGT, are prohibited from working for any companies with LOGT contracts for two years.  (11-7)

Dennis amendment requiring $250 million (of more than $900 million) to be spent with certified Jacksonville Small and Emerging Business (JSEB) firms, or Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (DBE) firms.  (17-0)

Priestly-Jackson amendment to delete the "Soutel Road road-diet" project from the table listing all the projects. The funds were removed at a previous meeting, but the list was developed before then. She wanted to make sure the project was really gone. (17-0)

There are still a few public meetings about the bill before the Special Council Meeting, and some of the council members that voted "yes" to move the bill out of committee said their vote may be affected by what they hear at those meetings.

Somehow I still have a problem with this whole process. The main/original purpose talked by the Mayors office and headlines in the news for LOGT was to free funds for septic/sewer work. Yet only 100 million appropriated for a $1 billion problem? Still smells to me like Lot J. Talk about septic tanks - Fund U2C. The amendments may have dampened the the U2C but my opinion is it needs to be killed in favor of better options, such as upgrade SkyWay and expand with streetcars.

Quote from: jaxjags on May 19, 2021, 02:45:55 PM
Somehow I still have a problem with this whole process. The main/original purpose talked by the Mayors office and headlines in the news for LOGT was to free funds for septic/sewer work. Yet only 100 million appropriated for a $1 billion problem? Still smells to me like Lot J. Talk about septic tanks - Fund U2C.

One important thing is that the LOGT funds themselves can't be used for septic/sewers. At least part of the idea is that there will be future appropriations to accomplish exactly this. They aren't planning to ask for all $3-400 million freed up (the expected total ask if I remember correctly) at once. I'd like to think Curry isn't dumb enough to take this potential goodwill from getting an infrastructure bill passed and immediately burn it on chasing Lot J again, at least in the form it failed in. Now, once Khan and friends get around to asking about the Four Seasons again, there could perhaps be cause for concern.

QuoteThe amendments may have dampened the the U2C but my opinion is it needs to be killed in favor of better options, such as upgrade SkyWay and expand with streetcars.

Personally, I think Council is capable (meaning legally) of doing exactly this, the same way the United States Senate can order NASA to build a specific rocket. They could add an amendment ordering JTA to spend $X million on an overhaul of the monorail system and $Y million on the development of a streetcar expansion or on commuter rail or the terminal or anything like that.

The challenge is that Council lacks both the institutional know-how (lobbyists aren't going to write such an amendment for them, they don't know enough about transit to do it themselves, and JTA continues to push for U2C) and the ideological interest (a painfully large number of people on Council have basically zero interest in transit in general, and frankly don't seem interested in much beyond being in their seat to say no to things unless Curry asks otherwise) to do so. So unless a bunch of people here want to take a crack at writing an amendment, sitting down with a council member to propose they sponsor it, and trying to hold back JTA long enough and building a PR campaign strong enough to pass it, I don't know.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 19, 2021, 12:52:00 PM
Knowing Diamond is a no, guessing Defoor is a yes, and Carrico no, the remaining opinions put us at just barely 11-8. Odds are the vote will be close no matter what.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 19, 2021, 01:38:52 PM
There are still a few public meetings about the bill before the Special Council Meeting, and some of the council members that voted "yes" to move the bill out of committee said their vote may be affected by what they hear at those meetings.

Out of the "Yes" votes today, Morgan, Boylan, and DeFoor look like possible defectors. I think Bowman remains a "No." Morgan's town halls have been fairly quiet, but a regularly-scheduled one for District 1 will occur on 5/24.  I think she wants to be "yes" and will be a "yes" absent a strong public showing against the LOGT on 5/24.

Boylan has said multiple times he wants to support the bill and just doesn't have the answers he needs yet. I think he's stuck between personally wanting to be a "yes" and knowing how unpopular it is in his district.

DeFoor's stance is similar to Boylan's position, but she provided clearer feedback at an earlier CotW meeting. She needed 3 concerns met: A detailed plan for the LOGT and the general fund revenue reallocations (re: quality of life improvements promised); Timing issues (both for why the tax is needed now and for adequate public input); and restoring trust in the process not only of passing the tax but ensuring the funds go where they have been promised. I think the delay of the final vote by 1 day helps with the timing issue re: public input, and the Salem amendment partially addressed the trust factor. I doubt a detailed plan comes to fruition by next week, so absent some back-channel assurances for the upcoming CIP list, she may be a "no".

I agree with Marcus' vote total as a point estimate, but I see Morgan as the more likely #11 than DeFoor. The likely outcome looks like 10-12 "yes" votes.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 19, 2021, 03:08:21 PM

Quote from: jaxjags on May 19, 2021, 02:45:55 PM
Somehow I still have a problem with this whole process. The main/original purpose talked by the Mayors office and headlines in the news for LOGT was to free funds for septic/sewer work. Yet only 100 million appropriated for a $1 billion problem? Still smells to me like Lot J. Talk about septic tanks - Fund U2C.

One important thing is that the LOGT funds themselves can't be used for septic/sewers. At least part of the idea is that there will be future appropriations to accomplish exactly this. They aren't planning to ask for all $3-400 million freed up (the expected total ask if I remember correctly) at once. I'd like to think Curry isn't dumb enough to take this potential goodwill from getting an infrastructure bill passed and immediately burn it on chasing Lot J again, at least in the form it failed in. Now, once Khan and friends get around to asking about the Four Seasons again, there could perhaps be cause for concern.

QuoteThe amendments may have dampened the the U2C but my opinion is it needs to be killed in favor of better options, such as upgrade SkyWay and expand with streetcars.

Personally, I think Council is capable (meaning legally) of doing exactly this, the same way the United States Senate can order NASA to build a specific rocket. They could add an amendment ordering JTA to spend $X million on an overhaul of the monorail system and $Y million on the development of a streetcar expansion or on commuter rail or the terminal or anything like that.

The challenge is that Council lacks both the institutional know-how (lobbyists aren't going to write such an amendment for them, they don't know enough about transit to do it themselves, and JTA continues to push for U2C) and the ideological interest (a painfully large number of people on Council have basically zero interest in transit in general, and frankly don't seem interested in much beyond being in their seat to say no to things unless Curry asks otherwise) to do so. So unless a bunch of people here want to take a crack at writing an amendment, sitting down with a council member to propose they sponsor it, and trying to hold back JTA long enough and building a PR campaign strong enough to pass it, I don't know.

Thanks - My point wasn't bring back lot J, but that our officials (especially the Mayor) always have ulterior motives and tend to hide what they really want to do. Sell JEA, Fund Lot J. Sell LOGT for Septic Tanks, Fund U2C. Also I get that the septic tank removal was from general funds freed by the tax, but we need a bigger funding commitment.  So lets find a way to fund septic removal at $100 million a year for 10 years. I've lived here for 30 years on and off, and the city needs to live up to it's responsibilities and promises made to many underserved neighborhoods.

Marcus keep up the good work on this. I hope you are correct about stopping U2C. We shall see. I hate to see an all or nothing happen here but we may be headed that way. That's why I was not pleased to see the Skyway/U2C hijack the LOGT discussion.

If it is only 10 "yes" votes, it fails. 11 votes are needed to increase the Local Option Gas Tax.

Quote
336.021 County transportation system; levy of ninth-cent fuel tax on motor fuel and diesel fuel.—
(1)(a) Any county in the state, by extraordinary vote of the membership of its governing body or subject to a referendum, may levy the tax imposed by ss. 206.41(1)(d) and 206.87(1)(b). County and municipal governments may use the moneys received under this paragraph only for transportation expenditures as defined in s. 336.025(7).

Although not explicitly defined, an "extraordinary vote" is generally considered to be a Majority Plus One, or in the case of City Council, 11 votes.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 19, 2021, 11:12:03 AM
Yes, we're seeing it play out right now with the LOGT. The majority of council members opposing the LOGT were more than ready to give hundreds of millions in tax money away to Lot J a couple of months ago.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1x6ZjfWEAA8cK9?format=jpg&name=large)

I listened/watched.

Interesting that DeFoor emphatically expressed her conflicted emotions about supporting it. Her virtual town meeting was just prior, and the clear majority were in favor.

I suspect she & Boylan will come around. They're big picture people.

Gave a speech at Hazouri's town hall tonight. Here was Ford's response.

QuoteI think there's a obviously a lot to unpack in that, and I think we I was talking with our chair over there, which is, there is a development in terms of this technology, much the same as it was 30 years ago when there was development of the original Skyway. The original Skyway it cost $183 million. So if you look in today's dollars that's probably conservatively, we're talking about over half a billion dollars if we were to build the same exact two and a half mile footprint. And that is something that we evaluated in terms of looking at this project where we're talking originally 379 for a 10 mile autonomous vehicle system that is prepared for the future it's scalable.

I mentioned earlier it's about two to three years when you would see vehicles on Bay Street. The first, the first phase, the subsequent phase is going to be six to seven years to develop that during that timeframe, just like I think six to seven years ago our phones are different, the technology is moving so rapidly, and so the challenge is, do we make a decision now, and develop a Skyway to prepare it for the future that $240 million investment is converting it to a back to a roadway that allows us to adapt to new technologies coming in the future things that we haven't thought of. And that was the original design of the Skyway and unfortunately, and much more permanent and restrictive decision was made that locked us in to a monorail technology.

So, I think, you know, obviously, we have to make our point in terms of the investment that we're recommending here, we know that downtown Jacksonville is going to develop. We don't expect it to develop in a way that people are not going to need to move around, they're going to need to get to work, they're going to need to get to grocery store, they're going to need to do a whole host of things. This is probably the most inexpensive solution going forward. If we start looking at fixed guideways such as rail streetcars, things of that nature. It's permanent, it's not flexible, and frankly it's going to be there for quite some time similar to what we have now.

And what we're looking at is an investment that allows us to be flexible going into the future, leveraging technologies that are being developed, there's one other piece to this too. And we talked about it quite often. It is the ancillary technologies that can be hung on to these vehicles. So these vehicles. Yes, they're going to move people, and that's our original plan and that's the original design, but it also has the ability to actually use its sensors to identify over rubbish issues to identify issues in terms of road conditions. So just, you know, I think for a moment, we can't kind of think about this project from where we sit today, but think about the possibilities of the future of these mobile laptops with sensors that will help us identify a whole host of activities that we now do with a person in a truck, moving around with a camera, a lot of the actual Lidar and sensors and radar that we have on these vehicles will have an alternative purposes to make us much more efficient, not just for the JTA but also for the city. Thank you.

That was a bunch to say without ever talking about how land use plays a role in the success or failure of transit, regardless of whether it is fixed or not. Nevertheless, none of this has anything to do with whether we should be including the U2C in the LOGT. They are saying whatever they need to in order to get local tax money for this project.

^Reading this, it's frustrating how much of the negative opinion toward U2C comes from JTA's basic inability to message all these cool features. I wonder how many of the naysaying locals and City Council members would be more supportive of U2C if JTA had simply said upfront that the option might be there to upgrade the clown cars with rubbish sensors by 2040. I get it, we're an 800 square mile city with diverse transportation needs, but I don't know think there's a Jaxson among us who would disagree that the most pressing transportation issue that Jacksonville currently faces is the rampant proliferation of clowns rolling over debris. High time we fulfilled the promises of consolidation by helping our most vulnerable clowns better detect puddles and sticks.

^To me, it's frustrating to hear JTA spend more time talking about new technologies than figuring out how to operate and provide better service with existing operations. We don't need JTA to try and figure out how to use Lidar or tell us what the pavement crack rating of asphalt is.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 19, 2021, 06:42:36 PM
Gave a speech at Hazouri's town hall tonight. Here was Ford's response.

QuoteI think there's a obviously a lot to unpack in that, and I think we I was talking with our chair over there, which is, there is a development in terms of this technology, much the same as it was 30 years ago when there was development of the original Skyway. The original Skyway it cost $183 million. So if you look in today's dollars that's probably conservatively, we're talking about over half a billion dollars if we were to build the same exact two and a half mile footprint. And that is something that we evaluated in terms of looking at this project where we're talking originally 379 for a 10 mile autonomous vehicle system that is prepared for the future it's scalable.

I mentioned earlier it's about two to three years when you would see vehicles on Bay Street. The first, the first phase, the subsequent phase is going to be six to seven years to develop that during that timeframe, just like I think six to seven years ago our phones are different, the technology is moving so rapidly, and so the challenge is, do we make a decision now, and develop a Skyway to prepare it for the future that $240 million investment is converting it to a back to a roadway that allows us to adapt to new technologies coming in the future things that we haven't thought of. And that was the original design of the Skyway and unfortunately, and much more permanent and restrictive decision was made that locked us in to a monorail technology.

So, I think, you know, obviously, we have to make our point in terms of the investment that we're recommending here, we know that downtown Jacksonville is going to develop. We don't expect it to develop in a way that people are not going to need to move around, they're going to need to get to work, they're going to need to get to grocery store, they're going to need to do a whole host of things. This is probably the most inexpensive solution going forward. If we start looking at fixed guideways such as rail streetcars, things of that nature.

Prove it. There's a lot out there right now that clearly shows that this is no where close to being the most inexpensive solution now or going forward. If you don't care about stimulating TOD, there's no need for fixed guideways upgrading the Skyway infrastructure. Once you move away from fixed guideway, a bus will always be much cheaper, carry more people and be able to operate at speeds consistent with the posted speed limits.

QuoteIt's permanent, it's not flexible, and frankly it's going to be there for quite some time similar to what we have now.

This is a plus....assuming they care anything about the ability to stimulate TOD. Unfortunately, I don't think JTA really cares about that as much as getting to play with this AV toy.

QuoteAnd what we're looking at is an investment that allows us to be flexible going into the future, leveraging technologies that are being developed, there's one other piece to this too. And we talked about it quite often. It is the ancillary technologies that can be hung on to these vehicles. So these vehicles. Yes, they're going to move people, and that's our original plan and that's the original design, but it also has the ability to actually use its sensors to identify over rubbish issues to identify issues in terms of road conditions. So just, you know, I think for a moment, we can't kind of think about this project from where we sit today, but think about the possibilities of the future of these mobile laptops with sensors that will help us identify a whole host of activities that we now do with a person in a truck, moving around with a camera, a lot of the actual Lidar and sensors and radar that we have on these vehicles will have an alternative purposes to make us much more efficient, not just for the JTA but also for the city. Thank you.

Are we asking JTA to do R&D on AV technology or do we want our public transit agency to focus on providing public transit? Jacksonville taxpayers don't need to be on the hook for stuff the private sector is already spending billions on to figure out.

^That line basically dismissing fixed transit had me shaking my head.

I'm sure he's a nice guy, but Nate Ford needs to go.

What an awful hill to die on, speculative AV mini-shuttles as your city's long-term mass transportation solution.

Deeply troubling as well that across numerous town halls, op-eds, and public presentations, nobody at JTA even seems capable of clearly articulating the benefit of U2C to the community. I honestly don't even think they know themselves.

Pure sunk cost fallacy.

Pure chasing the shiny new thing at the expense of the proven commodity.

Name me one other city where this level of incompetence exists.

Lake, Re: buses, Ford said this earlier in the night*:

Quote...think about the community similar to this community [for reference, this was in Mandarin], where a 40 foot bus doesn't work. It doesn't work, it's too big, it's an overkill, it's very costly to provide the services in smaller communities. These types of vehicles give us the opportunity to have more tailor, door to door at on your schedule type of delivery of services and as we grow older, at some point, I guess, just like my father up in New York I'm having that difficulty getting that driver license out of his 80, plus year old hands that I do want to have that mobility, and to be able to use my phone or a laptop or something and call a vehicle like that and have it come to my front door and take me wherever I want to go fishing or whatever at that point in my in my life. I think that's a benefit that we don't see today, but we need to dream about and think about in the future, it's not ready to go yet, but it's coming. And we have opportunity here in Jacksonville to really be at the very cutting edge and be on the front of it, and not necessarily just the folks that ride public transit benefit, the folks that don't ride public transit, will be able to benefit from this type of technology.

I did point out before Ford's response that Google had spent $3.5 billion (so far) on a system that can't properly recognize traffic cones. I also brought up Cumber's editorial, to which Hazouri interrupted and said:

Quote...just to make a little note for Miss Cumber, and I welcome her input, her husband, Hussein is also was one that 15 member committees I was because I was a liaison at the time for the council, but he voted for not taking it down and doing whatever. Mr. Ford and the board wanted to do the authority want to do in the future. So make no mistake, both and he's an expert in transportation as well.

Let me also grab a quote from Ford about a resident's statement that the AVs appeared too small (it's a bit long, sorry)*:

QuoteYes, thank you and thank you for the question and I think what's happening is we're looking at these vehicles through the lens of what we're used to, which is a 40 foot bus that can handle 50 people and quite often I think you and I get the other complaints sometimes which is why are there only two or three people on that 40 foot bus. And so one of the costs, the major cost of an actual vehicle is actually the operator costs, the actual salary and wages and benefits of that operator costs. So, when we move towards a platform that is autonomous and doesn't have a operator or an attendant and we're not going to do that overnight. It's going to take us a couple of years to get to that point. But when you move to that point, it's a function of capacity and frequency, so we can run dozens and hundreds of those smaller vehicles and be more tailored in terms of where we actually see ridership actually occurring versus having a bus that's on a fixed route with a fixed number of stops when we run it and you have to adapt to our schedule because we're trying to be more efficient in terms of that operation.

Now we can provide a great deal more service those vehicles are able to actually virtually couple. So we can for the bulk for special events and things of that nature, we can couple vehicles and create what's a longer train 10 of those vehicles actually coupled together virtually, and then as they are actually traversing they can break apart on their own and go in different directions, based on where that customer wants to go. So some of this technology, you know, it gives us benefits that we have not had for over 100 years in terms of public transportation, which is the costliness of the actual driver, and we will be working to try and transfer our drivers into other types of skills, think of them as drone operators, going into the future where you have one operator for two vehicles, one operator for three vehicles and eventually, they're all out of the seat and they're actually operating in a control center environment with dozens of vehicles under their control. So, that's kind of the big visioning that we're going to slowly get towards over the next few years, the phase one of the Bay Street Innovation Corridor that project connecting to those sports complex that's within the next two to three years, that's fully funded.

The bigger lift is the aerial structure, and then our plan is in the future to look at extensions in the Brooklyn Riverside, Springfield and San Marco, but we've made a major pivot and I think it's important pivot the JTA is supporting the Emerald Trail and so part of the funding that we originally was seeking will be going to the Emerald Trail to support that project but yeah, only 10 to 12 passengers but I can operate dozens of those for at the cost of one 40-foot bus. Oh, well you know and you didn't make a point, they are operating in other cities around the world. We're not the beta, and in fact we're far from the beta there's actually a number of actual autonomous transportation systems around the world. here in the US, we're late to the party. And because from a road management standpoint, a NITSA standpoint, legal standpoint, liability standpoint with insurance companies, there's a lot of legal activity and activity that needs to occur to to catch up with the rest of the world just 10 years 20 years so two to three years on Bay Street, two to three years on Bay Street, the overall UTC project that's probably another six to seven. Okay, attendance first, and then eventually fully autonomous.

*Just want to note for the record, these transcripts are taken from Otter.ai, which live-transcribes the Zoom call as it occurs, so the exact words may not be 100% accurate.

I'll have to read the rest later, but there's a lot out there between a 40 foot bus and a minivan that seats 8 people, running 15mph. Plus, we don't have to touch the skyway or spend hundreds of millions putting AVs on roads. But we already know that here.

What about duck boats? They're flexible, require no fixed guideway, hold more people,  operate in mixed traffic, eliminate the need for a new bridge over the river, tap into our local military connections, and because they're so dangerous, we could probably buy them off a bunch of defunct tour operators for a steal. Seems to check a lot of JTA's requirements at a fraction of the price, and you could always retrofit some LIDAR to help with the massive blind spots if you want to innovate. Then they only need to get to level 3 automation,  max.

Nate gives another great column before going on break for the rest of the month. Read it, it's worth it.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/05/19/jacksonville-gas-tax-vote-represents-turning-point-city/5160597001/

Quote from: Ken_FSU on May 19, 2021, 08:10:57 PM
^That line basically dismissing fixed transit had me shaking my head.

I'm sure he's a nice guy, but Nate Ford needs to go.

What an awful hill to die on, speculative AV mini-shuttles as your city's long-term mass transportation solution.

Deeply troubling as well that across numerous town halls, op-eds, and public presentations, nobody at JTA even seems capable of clearly articulating the benefit of U2C to the community. I honestly don't even think they know themselves.

Pure sunk cost fallacy.

Pure chasing the shiny new thing at the expense of the proven commodity.

Name me one other city where this level of incompetence exists.

Yes Nate Ford needs to go. His statement that the SkyWay today would costs over $500,000,000(a whooping $200,000,000/mile-More than the original 95/10 interchange costs) shows that a lot of this talk is just talk. He presents no real facts to support his statements. He throws out numbers to justify JTA's position. On top of that we plan to spend $247,000,000 ($100,000,000/mile) just to convert the existing system to clown cars. As Lake said prove to me this is the cheaper option. Spend $50,000,000 +/- to upgrade SkyWay and add 4-5 miles of street car systems.

As Ken says the situation has become troubling to me also. Is it really worth $250,000,000 to essentially keep what we have and serve no more people than we do today? I believe they are continuing down this path for their own egos and future personnel business opportunities. Unless they are told to stop they wont. The only way to keep the septic tanks funds offset, Emerald Trail work and improved roads in underserved areas is to divorce the U2C from the LOGT bill.

(I used all the 000's to remind everyone how large these numbers really are)

From a professional perspective, I see no solid reason of why it would make fiscal sense to spend $240 million on 2.5 miles of existing elevated Skyway infrastructure to do anything. AV, streetcar, bus, walking path or whatever. If you have that much money locally to improve your transit network, there are tons of other projects that would be more worthwhile for the community. A few are currently in the long range transportation plan. Here are four right off the top of my head:

- BRT / Premium bus service on Kings Road
- BRT / Premium bus service on Edgewood Avenue
- More funding for commuter rail to St. Johns or Clay Counties
- Bringing passenger rail (intercity/commuter) back to the Prime Osborn/JRTC

It would even make sense to consider things that aren't on the LRTP. For example, you could do a state of the art streetcar, LRT, BRT, etc. starter line extending from DT into surrounding neighborhoods for that cost by leaving the Skyway as is (certainly this includes maintaining it to last until its service life has ended) and just tying your new system into the JRTC to allow for seamless transfers.

I definitely understand the challenges facing the Skyway, potential federal paybacks, etc. I even understand the reasoning for initially exploring AVs. However, everything should be reevaluated at this point, based on the uncertainly and the U2C costs being significantly more than what was told to the public six years ago. This doesn't mean they can't still play with AVs (remember Bay Street is already funded at $44 million....so just do it and see how it works out), but blowing $240 million on the existing Skyway is simply insane.

Quote from: jaxjags on May 20, 2021, 11:13:56 AM
Yes Nate Ford needs to go. His statement that the SkyWay today would costs over $500,000,000(a whooping $200,000,000/mile-More than the original 95/10 interchange costs) shows that a lot of this talk is just talk. He presents no real facts to support his statements. He throws out numbers to justify JTA's position. On top of that we plan to spend $247,000,000 ($100,000,000/mile) just to convert the existing system to clown cars. As Lake said prove to me this is the cheaper option. Spend $50,000,000 +/- to upgrade SkyWay and add 4-5 miles of street car systems.

I get the need to defend the project, if it's what you truly believe in but there is a need to be truthful and transparent with the discussion. These numbers are totally inaccurate, considering there are active and recently completed fixed guideway systems that cost well below the numbers being requested of the U2C. For example, OKC's new modern streetcar system was 1/3rd the cost per mile of what JTA wants to spend turning the Skyway into a elevated road. Even if you're a big AV pusher, it would make more sense to go 100% at-grade and ignore touching or relating the proposed project to the Skyway at all. After all, we're talking about a minibus. Find a few corridors where dedicated transit lanes can be carved out of the existing street network (ex. Tampa's Marion Street Busway or DT Orlando's LYMMO) and call it a day. You can then experiment with AVs and run regular buses /BRT, etc. on them. You can do that for a fraction of the cost, serve more people and not be snake bitten with being associated with the Skyway.

Quote...transfer our drivers into other types of skills, think of them as drone operators, going into the future where you have one operator for two vehicles, one operator for three vehicles and eventually, they're all out of the seat and they're actually operating in a control center environment with dozens of vehicles under their control.

I gotta see this.  One person controlling up to dozens of "semi-autonomous" vehicles at once?  Is JTA going to be able to find a human octopus?  Would anyone in the vehicle or, worse, as a pedestrian or fellow vehicle driver, feel safe in or around a vehicle knowing that if it messes up someone may or may not be responding promptly to it going awry?

QuoteI think, you know, obviously, we have to make our point in terms of the investment that we're recommending here, we know that downtown Jacksonville is going to develop. We don't expect it to develop in a way that people are not going to need to move around, they're going to need to get to work, they're going to need to get to grocery store, they're going to need to do a whole host of things.

Another, gotta see this.  We have been waiting decades for downtown to "develop."  This argument exactly mirrors the "logic" used to justify the original Skyway.  We know how that turned out.  FAILURE ALERT!  Let's see Downtown "develop" towards more density before we blow hundreds of millions on a theoretical possibility that is not currently in sight.  And, once we see Downtown "develop" to that level, there might be unforeseen advances in technology that are more reliable and offer other options and at lower costs than what is here today.  Plus, once Downtown finally "develops," our transportation "needs" may dictate an entirely different solution.

QuoteThis is probably the most inexpensive solution going forward. If we start looking at fixed guideways such as rail streetcars, things of that nature. It's permanent, it's not flexible, and frankly it's going to be there for quite some time similar to what we have now.

No, the most inexpensive solution is to kill U2C and the Skyway.  Alternatively, lets just buy a bunch more buses and run them out of the Skyway stations.  They are flexible, not permanent and can be disposed of quickly when the next best thing shows up.

Decided to take some time put together a conceptual amendment for any interested Council member.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1syWnDTiLa-fmqYftMyIQ9_6ozLMmKSXE/view?usp=sharing

It would reduce the Skyway Conversion to simply Skyway Rehabilitation, convert the Skyway Fleet purchase line into vehicle overhauls, increase the funding for the JRTC Rail Terminal so that we actually get to build a rail terminal versus just planning to, partly (pretty substantially I think) funds a Phase 1 Commuter Rail project to St. Augustine, and still includes $33 million for transit improvements, which in theory could be enough for an entire new BRT corridor or widespread frequency improvements, whatever they can make work.

It's probably not perfect, but I think it's quite a bit better than blowing $240 million to remove a concrete beam.

Looks good.

Minor quibble - I think in practice the "council districts" only list those physically touched by the proposed projects. So, although "all districts" could conceivably benefit from Skyway improvements or Commuter Rail to St. Augustine, consistency would require listing only those districts where the Skyway and Commuter Rail are (will be) located.

I get what you're saying, but the Skyway Conversion was listed on the original project list as All. I suppose changing the commuter rail could make sense though, to everyone along the corridor. On the other hand, it could also mean reconfiguring bus service into surrounding neighborhoods and have an effect beyond just the district the track is in.

Morning, folks.

Sent the proposal to Morgan, DeFoor, Dennis, and Carrico, with the following:

QuoteDear Council Member _______,

For weeks now, you have discussed with your colleagues the prospect of the Local Option Gas Tax increase to make transportation investments in Jacksonville. However, for much of that time, too much attention has been squandered defending the deeply unpopular Ultimate Urban Circulator (U2C) program by JTA, which has largely relied on unproven hypothetical capability while asking taxpayers to bear the cost of research and development.

Last week, City Council took an important step in the right direction by directing funding intended for U2C expansions (based on unproven technology with uncertain costs) to fund the celebrated Emerald Trail project, which will connect more neighborhoods, make a more visible impact on the lives of citizens, and extend far beyond the reaches of the proposed U2C expansions.

But this is not far enough. As someone born and raised on the First Coast, I feel a responsibility to enrich this dialogue by offering an alternative to the proposed Skyway conversion project along the same lines of the Emerald Trail's benefits: connect more neighborhoods, more visibly improve citizens' lives, and extend further than Downtown Jacksonville. Attached you will find the result:

The Amendment for Regional and Urban Transportation directs funds intended for an unnecessary conversion of existing transportation infrastructure to provide for a more substantial infrastructure program, connecting Downtown Jacksonville to not just St. Augustine and the neighborhoods along the way, but to the rest of Florida and the nation via Amtrak and preparation for future Brightline service. All the while making investments to improve traditional transportation options across Jacksonville.

The Amendment reorganizes the Skyway project, focusing solely on rehabilitating the existing infrastructure to last until the completion of federal obligations, and overhauling Skyway vehicles to provide high-frequency service between downtown neighborhoods like Southbank, Brooklyn, LaVilla, and NorthCore.

With the now-available funding, the Amendment facilitates progress on the new JRTC Rail Terminal, dedicating funding for partnership with Amtrak to return passenger rail to Downtown Jacksonville, enabling improved intercity connections to Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida, as well as north via Amtrak's Silver Service. A Public-Private-Partnership with Brightline also provides the opportunity to make early investments in bringing Brightline to Jacksonville.

Critically, the Amendment provides substantial funding for long-awaited commuter rail service between Downtown Jacksonville and St. Augustine, providing an alternative to congestion and construction on I-95 and enabling a new transit spine for connecting bus services along the corridor. This project has numerous benefits for residents by supporting future development in station areas and, with an opportunity for a Public-Private-Partnership with Brightline, builds the foundation for high speed rail connections to extend to Jacksonville.

Finally, the Amendment provides additional funding for JTA to enhance transportation services throughout the City of Jacksonville by increasing bus frequencies and expanding the First Coast Flyer.

By making simple, inexpensive repairs to the Skyway and investing in transportation across the First Coast, the Amendment for Regional and Urban Transportation makes the Local Option Gas Tax more responsive to citizens and more practical for Jacksonville.

Please introduce this amendment so that we can ensure the LOGT is a truly worthwhile investment for the City of Jacksonville.

Great work ... I just hope City Council is listening for once.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 24, 2021, 04:19:03 AM
Morning, folks.

Sent the proposal to Morgan, DeFoor, Dennis, and Carrico, with the following:

QuoteDear Council Member _______,

For weeks now, you have discussed with your colleagues the prospect of the Local Option Gas Tax increase to make transportation investments in Jacksonville. However, for much of that time, too much attention has been squandered defending the deeply unpopular Ultimate Urban Circulator (U2C) program by JTA, which has largely relied on unproven hypothetical capability while asking taxpayers to bear the cost of research and development.

Last week, City Council took an important step in the right direction by directing funding intended for U2C expansions (based on unproven technology with uncertain costs) to fund the celebrated Emerald Trail project, which will connect more neighborhoods, make a more visible impact on the lives of citizens, and extend far beyond the reaches of the proposed U2C expansions.

But this is not far enough. As someone born and raised on the First Coast, I feel a responsibility to enrich this dialogue by offering an alternative to the proposed Skyway conversion project along the same lines of the Emerald Trail's benefits: connect more neighborhoods, more visibly improve citizens' lives, and extend further than Downtown Jacksonville. Attached you will find the result:

The Amendment for Regional and Urban Transportation directs funds intended for an unnecessary conversion of existing transportation infrastructure to provide for a more substantial infrastructure program, connecting Downtown Jacksonville to not just St. Augustine and the neighborhoods along the way, but to the rest of Florida and the nation via Amtrak and preparation for future Brightline service. All the while making investments to improve traditional transportation options across Jacksonville.

The Amendment reorganizes the Skyway project, focusing solely on rehabilitating the existing infrastructure to last until the completion of federal obligations, and overhauling Skyway vehicles to provide high-frequency service between downtown neighborhoods like Southbank, Brooklyn, LaVilla, and NorthCore.

With the now-available funding, the Amendment facilitates progress on the new JRTC Rail Terminal, dedicating funding for partnership with Amtrak to return passenger rail to Downtown Jacksonville, enabling improved intercity connections to Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida, as well as north via Amtrak's Silver Service. A Public-Private-Partnership with Brightline also provides the opportunity to make early investments in bringing Brightline to Jacksonville.

Critically, the Amendment provides substantial funding for long-awaited commuter rail service between Downtown Jacksonville and St. Augustine, providing an alternative to congestion and construction on I-95 and enabling a new transit spine for connecting bus services along the corridor. This project has numerous benefits for residents by supporting future development in station areas and, with an opportunity for a Public-Private-Partnership with Brightline, builds the foundation for high speed rail connections to extend to Jacksonville.

Finally, the Amendment provides additional funding for JTA to enhance transportation services throughout the City of Jacksonville by increasing bus frequencies and expanding the First Coast Flyer.

By making simple, inexpensive repairs to the Skyway and investing in transportation across the First Coast, the Amendment for Regional and Urban Transportation makes the Local Option Gas Tax more responsive to citizens and more practical for Jacksonville.

Please introduce this amendment so that we can ensure the LOGT is a truly worthwhile investment for the City of Jacksonville.

Just got a text:

QuoteYou can help Jacksonville grow and prosper! Tell your City Council member that you support Jobs for Jax! JobsForJax.org Txt stop 2 stop

Looking at https://jobsforjax.org (not the same as jobsforjax.net, which is the official project site), it's "sponsored" by JaxBiz, which is JaxChamber's PAC.

Fantastic day for Jacksonville.

Don't agree with U2C, but big picture, a huge win for the city as we finally begin to make strides to invest in ourselves and fulfill some long overdue promises.

I genuinely do think the Emerald Trail has the opportunity to be transformational, and I actually think the JTA will probably manage the project better than the city would have.

Good for Curry pushing this thing through, and good for City Council making the right decision. 

Agreed. Incredibly disappointed in yet another adventure of chasing a game-changer project (I'm still laughing about "Silicon Valley of the East"), but in the end this is a net good investment, and getting things like the Mayport ferry and the Emerald Trail funded is absolutely a big win. At least we're getting studies about passenger rail, I guess.

This day and age it's decidedly uncharacteristic of Republicans to raise taxes for a good reason, and for all his faults, Curry managed to pull it off. I'm willing to hand it to him.

This is an example of a tax increase that I can support. A defined and targeted goal for the monies rather than going into a general fund.  Not thrilled with U2C but love the septic tank removal and Emerald trail...  8)

IMO this was a fair compromise. The money for the Emerald Trail turned a 60% win into a 75% win and I'll take that. There will be time to push back on the Skyway again later but in the meantime many good projects can go through.

While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

The city council just voted to piss away a quart of a billion dollars on the empty Skyway.  Disgusting.

Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

I spent about an hour yesterday riding the three Skyway lines while live-streaming with some friends who are into transit and urban planning, some of whom work in the field. Their general consensus was that Jacksonville as a city clearly has great bones and a lot of potential, but for whatever reason we're not taking advantage of it, and that it's insane we're planning to use such heavy-duty infrastructure for something like self driving pod cars.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 27, 2021, 10:18:31 AM
While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

I'm thinking of writing something to that effect. To say that while I'm not happy about the choice of technology, if it's going to fail it should be because of the technology, not because we actively kneecapped it with poor land use and planning, or subsidized against its use. Even if the TOD plan is somewhat outlandish, we should absolutely make sure that any zoning around the stations is configured to enable maximum utilization.

Quote from: JBTripper on May 28, 2021, 12:08:33 PM
Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

Probably not. Odds are JTA's not going to design it with that in mind, and it's doubtful GroundworkJax designed it with that consideration either. If anything, JTA might try to hamfist wide enough paths for U2C vehicles.

Quote from: JBTripper on May 28, 2021, 12:08:33 PM
Does placing the Emerald Trail into the hands of JTA open up the possibility for light rail along all that right-of-way in the future?

No. Much of the trail ROW is actually streets like Hogan Street that will be retrofitted to include a trail component.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 28, 2021, 12:12:30 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on May 27, 2021, 10:18:31 AM
While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

I'm thinking of writing something to that effect. To say that while I'm not happy about the choice of technology, if it's going to fail it should be because of the technology, not because we actively kneecapped it with poor land use and planning, or subsidized against its use. Even if the TOD plan is somewhat outlandish, we should absolutely make sure that any zoning around the stations is configured to enable maximum utilization.

Even if the AV plan fails, you'll have the ability for the infrastructure and dedicated transit lanes to be utilized by a different type of rolling stock/vehicle.

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on May 28, 2021, 11:10:25 AM

The city council just voted to piss away a quart of a billion dollars on the empty Skyway.  Disgusting.

While at the same time voting to put nearly $750 million toward much needed infrastructure and quality of life improvements throughout Jacksonville, freeing up the CIP to fulfill decades-long promises to underserved neighborhoods. On that of that, they voted unanimously to put an additional $100 million immediately toward septic tank phaseout.

The U2C isn't ideal, but JTA believe in it, and they made some pretty big concessions on this gas tax.

Specifically, when they could have tried to play hardball on their 50/50 split with the city, they sacrificed $130 million from their half of the pie and agreed to take on the Emerald Trail project themselves.

When the city misses construction timelines on projects like Coastline by three years and literally forgets that "Riverfront Plaza" needs to be watered, I think JTA's stewardship of the Trail and can only be an upgrade.

Plus, we're years away from any significant gas tax money going toward the Skyway, and months away from the tax starting to work for other projects like the Emerald Trail (which both parties want to have fully completed within 5-8 years).

Any $1 billion portfolio of projects is bound to have some pork.

I think it's a really good compromise that continues to push Jacksonville forward in many regards, all things considered.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 27, 2021, 10:18:31 AM
While I think there are a ton of unknowns that remain with the U2C, I do believe that there is still opportunity to dramatically shape what it is. For example, the needs for dedicated transit lanes, TOD/land use coordination around stations, and higher capacity/faster moving vehicles remain. These are things that will make or break any type of transit technology.

The recently-procured autonomous ADA bus is, I hope, more the direction this goes. Obviously the tech needs to catch up, but that same van that accommodates 12 paratransit passengers can hold up to 21 people. Get those running in dedicated ROW with drivers, at regular vehicle speeds, and then when the tech is ready you can turn it over to autonomous driving. No, it's not light rail, but it's achievable and more flexible than full size buses. Not worth $240M, but we may as well get something that works.

There is one other possibility that could kill U2C:  That the technology it is dependent upon doesn't arrive in a timely manner.  So, if it takes, say, 10 to 20 years to make possible what they are looking for (a real possibility), they may have no choice but to look at other more achievable options given the City's transit needs can't wait any longer.

I hope they don't plan to spend the 1/4 billion ripping up what is there before they know for sure they can build the U2C successfully (what ever low standard they have for defining that).  Additionally, I am still wondering where the study is that says the thing will be used at any level to justify it being built out in the first place.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 28, 2021, 04:18:32 PM
There is one other possibility that could kill U2C:  That the technology it is dependent upon doesn't arrive in a timely manner.  So, if it takes, say, 10 to 20 years to make possible what they are looking for (a real possibility), they may have no choice but to look at other more achievable options given the City's transit needs can't wait any longer.

One obvious challenge with that is that 1) JTA leadership has already fallen into sunk cost fallacy (https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/news/21217324/fl-jacksonville-transportation-authority-board-approves-project-list-for-gas-tax-increase):

Quote"Now is not the time to reverse course," JTA board Chairwoman Ari Jolly said. "We are too far in the implementation of the U2C program."

She said not building the system would be turning "our backs on the progress and innovation of the city for generations to come."

And 2) by the time they realize that it's just not ready (and further away than "right around the corner") there's no telling how much money they'll have spent or infrastructure that will have been converted for technology that doesn't work. There might not be resources available to redirect to developing an alternative on any useful timeline.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 28, 2021, 04:18:32 PM
I hope they don't plan to spend the 1/4 billion ripping up what is there before they know for sure they can build the U2C successfully (what ever low standard they have for defining that).  Additionally, I am still wondering where the study is that says the thing will be used at any level to justify it being built out in the first place.

Like I said in another thread, Ford's plan at least was to start ASAP on the procurement process once they knew they'd have the money, and be out to bid in two years, which would be before Bay Street opens. It's unclear at this point whether the beam would start coming off before Bay Street is operating, although the full timeline is apparently 6-7 years from now for the converted elevated portion to open. Of course, as Lake has said, there's no way of knowing if any of that timeline will hold.

One possibility that I haven't heard in a while is that they actually go ahead with the Autonomous Avenue concept, which would convert the section between the JRTC and Jefferson Station to prove the concept before converting the remaining guideway. But that might have been more about funding, which is no longer a problem for them, than about actually proving the technology.

Here's (https://u2c.jtafla.com/media/2909/d-ridership-forecast-technical-memorandum.pdf) the Ridership Forecast from the Transit Concept and Alternatives Review for the conversion. Page 32 shows projections including the expansion to Brooklyn.

As an aside, has anyone who's been to the JRTC noticed that they made a design error during the value engineering and ended up disabling one of the Skyway tracks with a bridge so that you can actually walk from the mezzanine to the platform?

I noticed that at the JRTC. I saw it on the plans and assumed they'd find a way to keep that track operational. Obviously, I was wrong.

Looking back at the original plans, you can see the terrace level and how it's separated from the platform, with some escalators right next to the skybridge:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-hDW7xB6/0/X2/i-hDW7xB6-X2.jpg)

But then the level above includes a path over the skyway tracks, with additional escalators and an elevator back down to platform level.

(https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-KNXjdfk/0/X2/i-KNXjdfk-X2.jpg)

From the look of things, one of these floors, the elevator, and the escalators were scrapped in value engineering. And then they just tossed in a bridge directly over the track because they didn't want to require going down to street level.

Definitely seems like a waste of the infrastructure to make that entire section of track useless, and now there's still a temporary plastic barrier so that people don't fall onto the guideway. And either they'll have to buy AVs with doors on both sides or they're going to have to turn around at some point. Really strange decision overall.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 28, 2021, 07:21:58 PM
Here's (https://u2c.jtafla.com/media/2909/d-ridership-forecast-technical-memorandum.pdf) the Ridership Forecast from the Transit Concept and Alternatives Review for the conversion. Page 32 shows projections including the expansion to Brooklyn.

Marcus, thanks for the link.  This study appears to only address options for the existing Skyway, not expansions.  I just read through it and wasn't impressed.  Lots of mumbo-jumbo, acronyms and smoke and mirrors to make it sound scientific but in the end its clear they are just making a wild-ass guess.  Importantly, if the study doesn't factor in at all JTA's ultimate desire for street level transit expansions, how can they even begin to justify that option?  Is there another study for that?

Using this study, if you assume their numbers are at all credible, the best outcome they came up with is only increasing ridership from 48,882 (2040 "no-build, i.e. no changes to existing system) to 53,619 (2040 "Build 2B" option, i.e. using autonomous vehicles, adding a Brooklyn station and maximizing headways on existing system only - see page 33).  This amounts to 4,737 additional boardings or only a 9.7% increase 25 years out (from 2015 to 2040) if we spend $247+ million today (that's just for the Build 2B option). By the way, this study also assumed  the AV's would be in place by 2022 (not gonna happen!).  Tells you how unrealistic the assumptions and expectations JTA had in September, 2018, only 2.5 years ago.  Imagine how far off they are likely to be going out 10 or more years!

Again, assuming the consultant's projections are even credible, I don't find this increase at all  impressive and certainly not deserving of a very risky $247+ million investment.  Based on the study, we are being asked to spend nearly $53,000 for each incremental boarding!  If you assume each rider makes a round trip, this comes to about $106,000 for each additional rider using their best 2040 estimate.  Add in factoring in the time value of money at 3% interest on $247 million.  That's $7.41 million a year or $1,565/year to finance each additional boarding or over $3,100/year to finance each incremental round-trip rider.

Further, I did not see a sensitivity analysis based on various fare levels that might be charged vs. free presently ( a factor they admit could impact their forecasts).  One would expect factoring any fare assumption at all would cause a drop in their base year ridership numbers that they use to project into the future as well as their future estimates.

Reading all the caveats at the end shows just how speculative these studies are.  Just one example:  They note changes in telecommuting as a caveat.  After COVID, this may surely be a significant modifier for these forecasts.  Add that JTA provided much of the info underlying the various scenarios they "tested" and you can see how easily these studies can be manipulated to get some preconceived outcomes to justify a project.

From the report's conclusion (emphasis added):

QuoteEven though these forecasts may be plausible, as always, there are uncertainty associated with ridership forecasts. The main factors influencing the ridership predictions as documented are:

• Uncertainty of population and employment forecasts. STOPS forecasts of future year ridership are based on the Northeast Florida TPO estimates of population and employment in the Jacksonville area. Additionally, development data was obtained from the City of Jacksonville and the DIA. These forecasts depend on the region achieving the forecasted levels of development.
•   Uncertainty of service plan. The project definition described in this report present the expected transit level-of-service. As projects move through the development process from plans to design to implementation, events can occur which may cause significant changes to the project definition. 
•   Other Sources of Uncertainty. The forecasts presented in this report were prepared following FTA requirements that transportation policies are consistent among the runs. This means that key assumptions such as land uses, fare policies, and costs for competing modes be consistent for all scenarios to allow for a meaningful comparison of transit alternatives. FTA also requires project sponsors to use forecasting methods that have been validated to match existing transit market characteristics. Key parameters such as trip rates, auto operating costs, and mode-specific parameters must be the same for model calibration and analysis of each alternative. Experience has shown that adherence to these requirements results in a fair analysis of alternatives and a good chance that the forecasted results will be achieved when projects are implemented.

Nevertheless, it is possible that changes in the nature of commuting (e.g., tele-working), costs of transit or competing modes, nature of land development, or overall levels of transit service can occur over time. These changes can affect the magnitude of the projected demand for transit which are not reflected in the results presented in this report.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 29, 2021, 12:58:22 AM
Marcus, thanks for the link.  This study appears to only address options for the existing Skyway, not expansions.  I just read through it and wasn't impressed.  Lots of mumbo-jumbo, acronyms and smoke and mirrors to make it sound scientific but in the end its clear they are just making a wild-ass guess.  Importantly, if the study doesn't factor in at all JTA's ultimate desire for street level transit expansions, how can they even begin to justify that option?  Is there another study for that?

Expansions were studied later, the Ridership Forecast for that is here (https://u2c.jtafla.com/media/2931/appendix-f_ridership-forecast-technical-memorandum_review-edit-04-2020.pdf).

QuoteFurther, I did not see a sensitivity analysis based on various fare levels that might be charged vs. free presently ( a factor they admit could impact their forecasts).  One would expect factoring any fare assumption at all would cause a drop in their base year ridership numbers that they use to project into the future as well as their future estimates.

I couldn't find anything that indicated an estimated fare. Perhaps that's something the consortium that gets picked will decide.

But when it comes to ridership, I think we have to be frank: this project hasn't really been about that in a long time. Just being at the City Council meeting made that as stunningly clear as it could be. I can hardly recall a moment where anyone brought up the prospect of just how many people would actually use this system as a mode of transport. I think Carlucci asked about whether it could one day take him and his wife to dinner or something.

The bulk of the conversation, and the bulk of the justification for this project, revolves around the aspirations that the U2C will "put Jacksonville on the map," or "turn Jacksonville into a global leader in digital innovation," or "make Jacksonville the Silicon Valley of the east." The lurid fantasies of companies across the nation, the world even, deciding that this project makes us a place worth putting their business. That the kids we teach robotics using these things (I've never heard of teaching kids robotics because of a half-million-dollar car, but what do I know?) will go on to shower our city and its leaders in glory. Hell, Ron Salem even told Nat Ford in front of everyone that this was going to be his legacy, his whole team's legacy, and that he'll be a hero if he gets it to work.

If you want to understand the next few years, you have to understand that. As much as Nat Ford wants to blatantly lie that

QuoteI'd be here all day if I listed the countries around the world that are actually, in cities around the world, that are implementing, and they're beyond pilots, and beyond kind of the beginning, they actually have up-and-running systems.

The fact of the matter is that we're going to be the experiment, and they believe that they're going to figure it out, and be rewarded by history for doing so.

^Someone should have called him out on that and asked specifically what projects out there (identical to what JTA is proposing) aren't pilots?

I seen a news4jax story on this the other day. They ended up at a gas station somewhere in the city, interviewed one white, a hispanic and two black guys, all middle aged, all pretty blue collar. Only the white guy seemed relatively open to the idea of it and even at that he had next to no trust in the people involved and seemed suspicious that what has been voted for ultimately may not happen or will fail altogether.

All were resoundingly "taxes bad".

You're up against a lot more in this city than just bureaucracy and politics. Some of the residents have such engrained negativity, regardless of their background.

^ Well at this point, the tax was passed. I'm sure they'll grumble about it, but there's not a whole lot they can still do about it.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 29, 2021, 07:44:44 AM
^Someone should have called him out on that and asked specifically what projects out there (identical to what JTA is proposing) aren't pilots?

It's hilariously contradictory for JTA to both claim that this is being done elsewhere but also that this is so unique and new that it'll be transformational for us as a city. Of course, it seems Council didn't care much about that.