We had a thread like this in 2015, and it's most certain we'll be needing one this coming cycle.
Just to establish the facts, incumbent Mayor Lenny Curry is term limited, and can not run for a third term. That leaves the position open to whoever can garner the support of citizens to win it.
Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.
I'm getting word (https://twitter.com/melissainjax/status/1330152677595115521?s=21) of a first contender.
Dr. Richard Danford Jr., President of the Jacksonville Urban League and husband of District 1 Councilwoman Joyce Morgan reportedly announced (https://www.facebook.com/wlarry.williams/posts/10218623582322607) this morning that he would seek a bid for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023.
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
I'm pretty sure Daniel Davis will also be running for Mayor in 2023.
I've heard that rumor quite a few times. I'm sure he'll announce soon enough.
Following past patterns, I would expect one or more council members to throw their hat in the ring. Maybe a person or two from the corporate community. Keep an eye on the Our Jax crowd too - I could see them sourcing someone of their ilk given their recent activism in civic goings-on.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:42:41 PM
Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.
You cite national and state Democratic candidates carrying Duval. Problem for Dems is who, locally, among them has a solid county-wide foundation nowadays? I assume Danford is a Dem so that's one. Donna Deegan maybe. Garrett Dennis to the chagrin of some? A past mayor, Alvin or Tommy, running again? How about Godbold's right "hand", Chris Hand? Midyette who just ran a close county-wide race?
^Yep, all of the above.
Daniel Davis is about as close to a lock as you can get.
And he's certain to be Khan and the Jags' preference. Next mayor will likely determine whether the Jags remain in Jacksonville or are sent packing and, for better or worse, I think Davis is a guy who will get stadium upgrades and a lease extension negotiated, even though I think it'll come at the expense of some developer-friendly deals on the other projects the Jags are pushing.
City Council wise, I know first-hand of one City Council member who's going to be announcing a bid by January, but based on comments from that Twitter thread that you linked to Marcus, there might be multiple.
And totally agree JaxLongTimer that it sure feels like OurJax might field a candidate as well. That group has been kicking up a lot of dust in the last year. PURE speculation my part, and it might just be wishful thinking, but I wonder if Audrey Moran might consider giving it a second go. I've always really liked her, and I think 2023 seems like her best opportunity yet.
Now that there's actually evidence of the area being potentially competitive for Democrats, it really is anyone's game. I imagine Gillum's win here was too soon for anyone to take advantage of, plus a likely lack of a candidate prepared to go against Curry at the time. To top it off, his reelection was before the JEA scandal and everyone realizing that a blank check to JSO didn't solve crime.
To answer you jaxlongtimer, I can't say I know much about Danford, but seeing that he's been with the Urban League for nearly three decades, I imagine he'll have at least some support. That plus being Morgan's husband. Deegan definitely has a chance among Dem donors, but it's not clear what her support is among voters who are in Al Lawson's district that she'd almost certainly need to win. I think Dennis is a cool guy, but I don't know what his plan is to stand out in what looks to be a crowded field. Not to mention that no one on City Council has won in a long time. Brown I presume is paying for a job in Washington, Hazouri is getting up there in years and probably not up for it after the last council meeting. Hand... I don't know, obviously Delaney managed it but it's been a while since Delaney. Midyette could be an interesting entry, don't know if he has aspirations for Mayor though.
Ken: from what I hear, Davis is basically Curry's chosen successor. He's at JaxChamber now for a reason. I've made my case (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg507042.html#msg507042) for what should become of the Jaguars developments. I've heard about OurJax, and I think some of their people follow me on Twitter, but I don't know what their pull looks like in terms of gathering support. I can't say it'd be surprising if a number of Council members declare, but again, it's been a while since anyone on Council made it to the Mayor's office.
I'd be lying if I wasn't looking at some of these races with CityLife's (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg506948.html#msg506948) comment in mind. Obviously still doing well at UF and law school is a priority, but beyond that, you know...
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of "open government."
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of "open government."
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
No surprise. Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary. After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.
Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.
Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated. They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start. If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign. In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.
I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege. After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign. Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him. For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front. That could be a double edged sword. No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
QuoteMayoral candidate Carlucci and tackling climate change
(https://photos.moderncities.com/photos/i-tF5KBRK/0/L/i-tF5KBRK-L.jpg)
Jacksonville City Councilman Matt Carlucci announced Thursday that he will be running for mayor in 2023 and he tells WJCT News that addressing climate change and sea level rise would be a priority for his administration.
Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/mayoral-candidate-carlucci-and-tackling-climate-change/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 14, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of "open government."
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
No surprise. Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary. After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.
Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.
Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated. They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start. If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign. In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.
I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege. After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign. Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him. For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front. That could be a double edged sword. No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
Great breakdown!
Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:
I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.
What's the story behind this?
Quote from: Ken_FSU on January 15, 2021, 10:18:23 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 14, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of "open government."
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
No surprise. Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary. After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.
Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.
Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated. They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start. If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign. In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.
I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege. After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign. Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him. For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front. That could be a double edged sword. No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
Great breakdown!
Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:
I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.
What's the story behind this?
From my recollection, he was the person that led the charge to protect them with the National Register designation, and convinced Mayor Delaney and COJ to purchase the buildings (2001-2002 timeframe-ish) from an absentee owner that was literally blasting off the cornices as they were preparing to demo. A few years later, the police and fire pension fund was given the buildings in exchange for crediting the City's pension fund contribution for something like $3 or $4 million. The fund flipped the properties to Cameron Kuhn and booked the profit.
Carlucci also developed the historic trust fund, which helped pave the way for Vestcor's reuse of the Carling and 11East, and other projects. More info on Carlucci's recent efforts to strengthen the fund he helped give birth to:
https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/ (https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/)
Here is a picture of when said owner was demolishing the old Center Theater and Kay Jewelers buildings. In this picture you can see where he had already gutted the Florida Life Building in preparation for demo. Not long after these buildings were torn down, the owner started started blasting off the cornices at the top of Florida Life. You can still see the pieces that are missing if you stand on Laura Street and look up. Steve Atkins (current owner) has the moldings for the cornices, and the plan is to recreate them when the buildings are redeveloped.
(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603618_xgwStbv-L.jpg)
(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603518_dxPrhFc-L.jpg)
(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603367_Jj7GC56-L.jpg)
If Carlucci had beaten Peyton, Jacksonville would be a very different city today. As far as DT goes, Carlucci seems to 'get it' better than 90% of the city councilmen that have served since 2000.
^FANTASTIC info and images, did not realize how close the Trio came to joining the causality list.
Much appreciated, Mike!
The last time I spoke to Carlucci was a few months ago. He was pushing behind the scenes to make sure the JEA building is adaptively reused, once JEA moves out in two years.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 14, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of "open government."
As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
No surprise. Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary. After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.
Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.
Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated. They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start. If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign. In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.
I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege. After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign. Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him. For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front. That could be a double edged sword. No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
Question might be how much that matters for Davis. Was Curry recognized to general citizens before he snagged the primary? I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate. I wonder how his campaign is actually forming right now, in terms of getting ready to build a case to voters.
Like I said last year, the Democrats are going to be the more questionable race. The proof is now there that they can turnout county-wide more than once, but it's not clear how that plays into these off-cycle local races. Can they find a candidate who gets enough people out of bed?
In the long run, I wonder if there's any chance of a referendum to make these elections just part of the midterms instead of a few months after.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 16, 2021, 08:26:34 PM
I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate.
That would be a repeat of Moran/Mullaney/Hogan in 2011.
Matt Carlucci has formally filed (https://www.voterfocus.com/CampaignFinance/candidate_pr.php?op=cv&e=35&c=duval&ca=1039&rellevel=4&committee=N) for Mayor in 2023, the first candidate to do so.
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.
Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.
The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.
Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.
The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.
I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.
Quote from: Steve on February 09, 2021, 04:45:31 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.
Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.
The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.
I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.
^ this. She'd be in competition with Davis more than Carlucci.
There are plenty of moderate R's who'd vote for her and she's got a lot of time to differentiate and define herself, but yes, she's much more in the lane of Dan Davis, Rory Diamond, etc. than to Carlucci. In fact I think even a harder right winger than those three would have a tough time consolidating the Trumpites (and what's left of the Curry coalition) in competition with them, considering their records and reputations.
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don't totally blow it, will likely make the primary.
To that point, that's likely Carlucci's biggest challenge. His goal will be to recruit votes from the moderates of both sides. The far left will pick the Democrat (assuming they actually run someone) and the far right will back either Davis/Cumber/Other.
To me this comes down to where is that dividing line on both sides of the aisle. The Unitary format of Jacksonville's elections gives Carlucci a chance; had this been a closed party primary system he's be totally SOL.
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.
JAXChamber President Daniel Davis has begun gearing up. $1.3 million (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1359644287064039429?s=21) into a PAC account just last month.
I know, I know, I've been beaten over the head by "Daniel Davis is going to run for Mayor" by seemingly half of town, I'm just reporting that it's formally happening.
Some of Davis's donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 07:18:02 PM
Some of Davis's donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)
This proves Davis is already bought and sold by developers and the Curry crowd (look for more donations from Khan/Rummell/Petway etc.).
I don't expect much overlap with voters for a Democrat. Or Carlucci who I think will be more likely to split votes with a Democrat than his fellow right wing/Curry Republicans (not sure there remains many moderate Republicans after the party has been Trump-erized). I hope Jax voters wise up and don't let big money buy this election again. They need to learn from the Curry experience.
It will be interesting to see how Davis/Cumber/Diamond or others of their ilk that end up running and who shared "values" more often than not with Curry (see school board bond delays, Lot J, pension fund, JEA before it blew up, shared campaign managers, etc.) will be responding to opponent accusations of same and how the voters will react.
Quote from: Snaketoz on February 10, 2021, 05:44:40 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.
Liberating!
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 11, 2021, 06:18:31 AM
Quote from: Snaketoz on February 10, 2021, 05:44:40 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.
Liberating!
LPF would be more "liberating"! ;-)
Is it possible Davis isn't running and this is a PAC for Cumber?
I realize that every rumor I've heard is that Davis IS running. Just nonsense speculation maybe. They just seem like EXTREMELY similar candidates.
Quote from: Tacachale on February 09, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don't totally blow it, will likely make the primary.
Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.
Quote from: JeffreyS on February 11, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
I'm a pretty middle of the road, consensus moderate from a (previously largely) Republican family. I was an NPA for 20 years until I switched to the Democratic Party last year. Two of my siblings switched from either NPA or the Republican Party. From what I can tell there are a lot of people like us among the new registrations.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 11, 2021, 01:41:54 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on February 09, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don't totally blow it, will likely make the primary.
Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.
Local Dems are at a huge fiscal and organizational disadvantage compared to the GOP. I don't think they (we) are anywhere close to par, but the demographic trends are in our favor, and Alvin Brown proved ten years ago that when conditions are right, voters and donors can swing for a Dem.
^Of course, although perhaps there's a chance for more support here going forward in hopes of making up somewhat for the losses down south, I don't know. The demographics should definitely work in our favor, assuming there aren't too many people latching onto the Curry train for crumbs like Lot J and the JEA proceeds. But good lord, we need candidates. At this rate, if no one steps up against Davis/Cumber/whoever this cycle I might have to come back after law school and give it a shot myself... ::)
Quote from: JeffreyS on February 11, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
It certainly is a concern... my former party has lurched way too far to the right to include my participation. I see the same happening to democrats... a slow but inexorable slide to the left which also leaves me out of that group. Not having a party or affiliation is liberating... as I can watch disgusted by their a antics from afar... 8)
There's an article about Davis (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/02/11/daniel-davis-raises-1-3-million-political-committee-january/6715036002/) in the Times-Union.
QuoteJAX Chamber President Daniel Davis, who is often talked about in Jacksonville political circles as a possible candidate for mayor in 2023, raked in $1.3 million in January for a political committee that could fuel a high-powered race if he does launch a campaign.
This is probably, almost certainly (https://twitter.com/kingobi/status/1360350996602490881?s=21) a joke, but local lawyer and former Biden campaign staffer Obi Umunna (https://www.ulegalgroup.com/the-firm/) may be lightly testing the waters to consider a run for Mayor of Jacksonville. If he were to seriously launch a bid, he would be the first Democrat to do so.
Nate Monroe weighs in on the mayoral race and concludes it is going to be hard for others to run against what may be a two man race between Carlucci and Davis given all the donors already committing, two years out:
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/)
Quote
....The 2023 race is already an almost $2 million campaign. The two Republicans have set a high bar for entry into the race, laid claim to most of the local donors willing to write big checks and seem poised to suck up most of the oxygen for the open seat (Florida Blue executive Darnell Smith, who had sometimes been discussed as a potential candidate, donated to Davis last month)....
And, herein is the problem with local elections - it only takes 24 people to stack the deck for a candidate!
Quote....Indeed, Davis' massive fundraising haul is a testament to the power of a small number of business leaders to shape Jacksonville elections and a stark illustration of how little space is left for more candidates. It is his strength but also a weakness his opponents will seek to pierce.
Consider: $500,000, or about 38 percent, of Davis' January total came from just five donors who contributed $100,000 each. Include those who donated $50,000 and it adds up to $700,000 from nine people — or about 54 percent of the total. Add in donors who gave $25,000 each, and just 24 people contributed a little over $1 million, or about 82 percent of Davis' total.....
And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:
Quote....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....
^So basically you could fill a small conference room with the number of people you need to buy an election. Peachy.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 12, 2021, 09:23:02 PM
And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:
Quote....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....
Problem is that voters have to show up to clamor for that change. An off-cycle election with the possibility of a Democrat even
being on the ballot up in the air makes that incredibly difficult. I can't help but wonder, there's got to be
some way of getting around the money problem to a degree that keeps them competitive. Having to
hope the right rich people haven't already hitched their wagon to someone is clearly not working.
Matt Carlucci has reportedly (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1366791519450128388?s=21) raised $400k for a political committee on top of $72k donated directly to his campaign. From a fundraising standpoint, that puts him behind Davis, but perhaps not as far as one would fear. It'll of course depend on how he spends it.
New article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/03/03/jacksonville-democrats-implode-just-time-2023-republicans-mayoral-race/6902372002/) by Nate Monroe on Democrats in disarray.
^ The bottom line I take from Nate's latest article is that the few elected Democrats in town are more concerned with their own necks over the good of the City, thus limiting their collective advancement via their party.
I am not sure the GOP'ers are any better here - they just have access to more money to support image building campaigns to hide their lack of effectiveness on behalf of the average citizen (witness the last 6+ years under the current mayor and going years back with their control of the City Council).
This appears to mimic the politics most everywhere today: Politicos who care more about their next election and to win at any cost vs. performing their civic duty to their constituents. The most current, but certainly not only, example is the GOP'ers standing by Trump, even after January 6th.
In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem: They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.
The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing. Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.
^ It really is strange, especially at a point where it appears that Democrats are in a better position than they were in 2015 from a standpoint of potential votes, yet the combination of funding challenges (a statewide problem, to be fair) and some fear of having to stake out a truly unique direction for the city has proved paralyzing.
I fully believe that if someone, anyone, took the lessons this thread has put together over the years and mounted a citywide campaign on the promise of rebuilding our city, they'd have a decent chance of winning. Yet somehow Democrats haven't found the guts to do so, now including a second attempt to ride the coattails of a Republican candidate and hope that they won't be shut out of the resulting administration.
Even as someone who studies and participates in this stuff, it really just bewilders me that no one ever suggests that perhaps the best way to gain and maintain power is to promise improvements to normal people's lives...
and deliver on those promises, or at the very least make it clear what obstacles exist to delivering on them. Even if you do care about the next election, wouldn't the best way to secure that be saying you'll do good things and then doing those things? Did the decades-long endurance of the New Deal Coalition teach no one?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 03, 2021, 08:41:06 PM
In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem: They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.
The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing. Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.
Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties, no doubt experience he carried from running the state GOP. Shame all he used it for was demolition and selling JEA.
I'd also suggest the need to ditch first past the post and move to ranked choice/instant runoffs. This two polarized parties thing clearly isn't working for us.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 03, 2021, 10:18:16 PM
Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties.
*held
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 04, 2021, 12:27:55 AM
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.
Curry used to have total control over City Council, and he lost that. He also lost the Our Jax contingent of the donor class as well as others who aren't falling in line with his projects. He still has sway (he's the mayor after all) but nothing like he had in his first term where everyone was terrified of opposing him.
Those are fair points. He's definitely not untouchable like he was in 2015 or even 2019. I will stand by saying that the real determinant is going to be who wins in 2023 and/or whether JEA comes back for him.
Update on Davis' fundraising: (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369452451221356548)
Quote from: Nate MonroeOh and once and future 2023 mayoral candidate @DanielDavisFL just hauled in another $305,519 in February (~$1.6 total so far for the unannounced candidate).
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 09, 2021, 09:58:24 PM
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.
Mike Hogan 2.0
It seems Ferraro would take more votes from Davis than from Carlucci.
Davis has raised in 2021 over $1.6 million from just 94 donors (actually much less when you consolidate the affiliated companies and their executives/owners). And Khan hasn't even chipped in yet. Check out the current list yourself at: https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe (https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe). [If asked, the PAC name is " building a better economy" and the date range should include from 1/1/2021 to present. The one for Carlucci is "next generation jax" which has raised $400K from 29 contributors. As a declared candidate, he also has raised another $100+K in his campaign account. See: https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures (https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures)]
It's clear that Davis will be obligated first and foremost to the development/construction/real estate industry* and the usual power players in town - the same ones who supported Curry - making Davis = Curry 2.0.
It's sad to say politicos can still "buy" elected offices and shameful that voters typically elect the guy with the most money to spend on ads. And, we complain about the quality of our representatives?
*This is why disproportionate infrastructure dollars go to new development instead of existing areas like the NW quadrant. And why this crowd receives favorable zoning decisions and generous incentives. Just follow the money. (And - applicable to all politics at all levels of government - we say pay-for-play/bribery is illegal in the US? Who are we kidding?)
Davis is definitely staking out the part of the donor class that supports Curry. His toughest job is going to be distinguishing himself from Curry and many of his unpopular decisions that Davis supported or assented to, such as the JEA sale fiasco and Lot J. That's easy pickings for his rivals.
It's even tougher as he has to do that without turning off Curry's money people. And it's tougher still when you have Ferraro potentially getting a part of the Republican base's hard right voters. That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.
Quote from: Tacachale on March 10, 2021, 04:10:31 PM
That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.
Yes, look for a divisive cultural issue to be germinated, propagated and fumigated across the local landscape, to make everyone forget about how the ruling class has rooked the city at large for the last seven years.
Will be interesting to see what position Daniel Davis and the Chamber stake out on spending $380 million on the Skyway. I see it as another Lot J with even more public push back (it's not nearly as sexy as the Jags). Will be a real test of his fealty to Curry. My guess is he/they will be silent, at best, if not supportive. If so, will seal the deal that he is Curry 2.0 and his campaign could then be toast before it even gets going.
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Mayoral candidate Matt Carlucci has officially launched his website:
https://mattcarlucciformayor.com
It currently contains no specifics of his plans for the office.
I remember his Dad, the Senator.
Engaged with the Senator through a Conservation organization.
I found that the Senator held enmity towards Florida Wildlife Federation John Jones.
Jones worked well with Conservatives in the Legislature, crafted the Conservation and Recreation Lands Act which produced Jennings State Forest, Gianna State Park and Wildlife Management Area in our region, among other projects and directives, including alert to what at the tine, thirty years ago, seemed as if a " Conspiracy "; Brannon Chaffee/ First Coast Outer Beltway.
The Senator sponsored legislating naming the Florida Panther as Florida's State Animal.
A local boat ramp is named in honor of the Senator.
Fascinating to see the political sparks fly back then with the State Animal proceedings.
I believe there was jealousy between the Senator and the Federation leader, and perhaps the Senator was concerned with CARL empowering an alternative to some develop aspirations.
The Senator' claimed he " Told It Like It Is"
At one point, Redistricting was cause for the Senator's district to include Clay County. The Senator's response was: " Over my dead body!".
Well, Clay did become the Senator's district, the Senator made amends by supporting Brannon/ Chaffe - a key component of the Outer Beltway.
Certain State Farm Agents were curious allies in promotion of Brannon Chaffee, close compatriots to some that made speculative land purchase upon the scaling back of the Florida Game & Fish Commission/ Trust For Public Lands Brannon Chaffee Mitigation Park.
All of this will likely prove of no interest in a local campaign. But no slack granted to Matt in Conservation and Environmental issues.
Interesting to witness Matt promote " Resilience " while defending future development in certain areas.
^This post of yours that I've seen and I found it both enjoyable and informative. Thanks for sharing. I'm assuming the alligator, but I'm curious to know what other animals were presented for the state animal.
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 13, 2021, 10:36:28 PM
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Al Ferraro is my city councilman. On two occasions I called his office with problems. On both occasions I got no response. I called an at-large councilman-Matt Carlucci and got an immediate response from Matt, an email, and action. I will never vote for Al for anything.
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign.
ON a related note I found the vaccination process administered at Gateway to be extremely professional and efficient.
Quote from: MusicMan on March 27, 2021, 10:32:32 AM
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign.
I agree. The Mask Mandate should stay until this pandemic is said to be under control by healthcare experts, not political hacks.
It's especially ridiculous because we're so close! Everything we need to close the book on this pandemic is either already here or quickly approaching, we just need to commit to being done with it. By next month we could actually be at the point of two weeks to stop the spread, those two weeks being the time for everyone's vaccines to fully kick in. And then that's widely it, at least domestically.
Yes, there's still plenty to do in other countries, especially the Global South, and it's in our interest to help them out so a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't come back and bite us in the butt, but we really can do this! Now's not the time to stop running 10 meters from the finish line.
2 years until election and the recent UNF poll shows Donna Deegan in first place with 19% support with Carlucci right behind at 18% although 20% of respondents chose the "someone else" option.
Does anyone know if Deegan is seriously considering a run for mayor?
QuoteFormer newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.
A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/
^^ More a measurement of name recognition than anything this early out.
Here are all the results as reported at https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/ (https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/). Interesting that Davis, Morgan, Cumber and Ferraro are near rock bottom. Will be interesting to see how this impacts their fund raising abilities. Also interesting that a moderate Republican and two Democrats top the list. Maybe voting against the school and gas taxes and kissing up to Curry and Khan are not such popular positions after all.
QuoteFormer newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.
A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.
While not all observers are surprised that Deegan looks formidable in a first review of the field, the survey shows the power of name recognition and a durable brand.
Close behind is a declared candidate who is the leading fundraiser among filed mayoral hopefuls. Republican Matt Carlucci was the choice of 18% of those surveyed. Though his fundraising has slowed down, the veteran politico has roughly $700,000 on hand between his campaign account and his state-level political committee, Next Generation Jax.
Coming in third was a familiar face. Former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown has 14% support in the poll. Brown, who was narrowly defeated in 2015's reelection campaign, lost in a comeback attempt in 2018, a primary challenge to Rep. Al Lawson. But that wasn't for lack of support in Jacksonville, where he defeated Lawson handily.
Notable in this poll: Brown was far and away the top choice of Black voters, with 35% backing him.
Other candidates and potential candidates were second tier, or worse, among respondents. This includes a number of established players in the local political scene.
Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis has raised more than $2 million in four months for his Building a Better Economy political committee pre-candidacy, but Duval County voters shrug. The Westside Republican is the pick of just 6% of those surveyed.
Respondents didn't seem thrilled with the other Council members beside Carlucci on offer either.
Second-term Democrat Joyce Morgan, who was elected to the City Council after a long stint on a local morning news program, is rumored to be looking at a run, and as of now is backed by just 5% of those surveyed, and just 10% of the Black vote, behind Brown and Deegan.
Even worse news was to be found in the results for Council member Al Ferraro, a second-term Republican who has declared a run, and raised just under $35,000 in two months. He scored just 3% support.
That tied him with yet another Council Republican, LeAnna Cumber. Cumber is exploring a run for Mayor, sources familiar with her thinking have suggested. If she were to run, she would be a strong fundraiser and the only female Republican and Hispanic in the race. But she would start with a modest base.
UNF pollster Michael Binder knows it's early and these numbers are dynamic.
"Although it's still very far out from the election, it is interesting to see a relatively even split between Democrat Donna Deegan and Republican Matt Carlucci," Binder commented. "It will be even more interesting to see how these numbers change over the next two years, as more candidates throw their hats into the ring."
The poll was conducted by email between May 11 and May 16th.
Like vicupstate says, this is basically a name recognition poll. Seeing how basically none of the people mentioned have articulated any real platform for Mayor, and only two have even declared they want the job, there's basically nothing for voters to have an opinion on other than, "oh yeah, I remember them." Deegan ran the highest-profile local race last year, so it's unsurprising that she's on top.
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:
- Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
- Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
- As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
- Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
- Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:
- Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
- Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
- As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
- Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
- Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.
She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.
Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)
Quote from: fsu813 on May 20, 2021, 01:07:11 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:
- Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
- Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
- As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
- Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
- Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.
She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?
Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.
Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)
She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 02:03:34 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.
Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)
She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.
You are probably right. The folks I hear complaining about her appear to have a problem with the demographic changes in the western part of Arlington. Need to hope the progressive side of the ballot isn't too crowded.
Is there another large city in the country where two former newscasters would even be considered top candidates for Mayor? I know Joyce Morgan is a councilperson now, but she doesn't seem to be one of the stronger ones.
Let's take a look at what current mayors of major Florida cities did before their roles:
St. Pete-Lawyer turned City Councilman then State Congressman
Tampa-Former Police Chief
Miami-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Orlando-Lawyer turned State Senator
Fort Lauderdale-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
West Palm Beach-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Tallahassee-MPA/MURP, governmental consultant turned County Commissioner
Sarasota-Lawyer turned City Councilor
Lakeland-Businessman
Pensacola-Businessman turned County Commissioner
Gainesville-Masters in Poli Sci turned City Commissioner
What do you see there? A lot of lawyers and all but one was a politician (or department head in the case of Tampa). Most of them rose from the ranks of their council. Transitioning from council allows them come into their mayoral terms with lots of institutional knowledge, understanding of processes, and a firm grasp on major initiatives and vision; as well as knowledge of strengths/weaknesses of the organization.
Jacksonville keeps electing people with absolutely zero experience working in local government, law, or politics; and then residents wonder why it's a horribly run city that doesn't come close to capitalizing on it's potential. The last three mayors have absolutely no experience in local government or law:
Lenny Curry-Accountant and former chair of Republican Party in Florida.
Alvin Brown-Got in with Bill Nelson and was gifted appointments to federal positions. Zero educational or work experience that would serve him in local government
John Peyton-No experience in local government and no educational background to prepare for it. Heavily backed by his family's influence.
Then our last two successful mayors:
John Delaney-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel, then Mayoral Chief of Staff.
Ed Austin-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel and State Attorney
Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor.
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want former newscasters or name recognition mayors? Gimme local government participants...
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.
It's worth looking more at what people did while they were on City Council and in their previous careers, rather than what the careers were.
*Joyce Morgan: 30 years in TV journalism, two-term city council member.
*Donna Deegan: 30 years in TV journalism, founder of a charitable foundation
*Matt Carlucci: four-term city council member, former council president, and businessperson
*Daniel Davis: two-term city council member, former council president, two-term state representative, president of the Jax Chamber of Commerce
*Leanna Cumber: lawyer, one-term city council member
*Al Ferraro: businessman, two-term city council member
On paper these don't look terribly different from each other. But I doubt that Al Ferraro's years running a lawncare business really prepare him to be mayor of Florida's largest city government. And I don't believe Leanna Cumber's judgement is better than, say, Daniel Davis's just because she's a lawyer and he's not. Alvin Brown was not super successful as mayor, but would Mike Hogan with his years of experience have been a better pick? I don't think so. I'd look at *effective* government and/or leadership experience more than anything else.
My closing statement was "Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor."
It pretty much goes without saying that means someone who was effective in said role...
Personally I'd be surprised if Morgan and Deegan don't talk and agree who should run. If they can unite behind one candidate early on and run a good campaign, either has a decent shot. Given the money advantage the GOP would be starting with, splitting their field seems risky. Don't know if the institutional structure to hash that out exists though.
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 05:20:05 PM
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.
I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could
definitely be interesting.
Just to get back to news, Curry pretty heavily winking at Davis:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430896-jobs-davis/
Quote"I think Daniel is a great executive and would be a great executive in whatever he decides to do next, if anything," Curry told Florida Politics after the event. "I don't want to speculate on what his plans are, but I think he'd be an excellent Mayor."
And Cumber seemingly preparing to focus on... something.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430799-leanna-cumber-abandons-jacksonville-city-council-leadership-bid/
Quote"The last few weeks have reinforced my core beliefs on policy issues related to taxes and infrastructure priorities. I do not feel that taxing our residents should be the default policy position of elected officials. And every investment we make with our constituents' money should be made wisely and not wasted on useless transportation systems like the Skyway," Cumber said, referring to the proposal to earmark nearly a quarter-billion dollars for improvements to the Reagan-era urban rail circulator from the proposed doubling of the surtax to 12 cents a gallon.
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 01:59:45 PM
Quote from: fsu813 on May 20, 2021, 01:07:11 PM
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:
- Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
- Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
- As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
- Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
- Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.
She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?
Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.
From her latest comments, sounds like she's chosen the anti-tax/gov waste platform. Ferarro has very little money, easy to surpass that, but he has far more credibility in that lane.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 20, 2021, 11:06:26 PM
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 05:20:05 PM
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.
I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.
That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but let's look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.
-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli SciAs you can see, many of these mayors also come from prestigious academic programs.
NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor
I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.
To Marcus's point on someone from here running for Mayor next cycle. I'd like to see someone run for Council first...I think both Mike and Ennis would be great if they were interested. Though I think Ennis could get more accomplished in a Deputy Director type role at JTA or DIA. I'd also love to see KenFSU get on the DVI or DIA boards.
Quote from: CityLife on May 21, 2021, 02:33:00 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 20, 2021, 11:06:26 PM
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 05:20:05 PM
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.
I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.
That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but I'm going to serve you a nice dose of facts here.
Let's look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.
-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli Sci
Here is the list. As you can see, many of these mayors come from prestigious institutions.
NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor
I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.
I don't really disagree with you, except that the current slate of mayoral candidates for Jacksonville don't look much different than that list. It is different from the last 3 mayors we've had, however, none of whom had any government experience and who have been decreasingly effective. But what does it mean for the upcoming election?
^The original point was that no other major city in America or Florida would have two former newscasters as mayoral frontrunners. Joyce Morgan has at least put the time in on Council, but Donna Deegan has no business being mentioned as a mayoral candidate, let alone front runner imo. She's a great woman and a Jacksonville treasure, but she doesn't have the first clue about how to run a large government.
I agree that Carlucci, Cumber, Morgan, and Davis all fit the bill as more traditional mayoral candidates, which is nice to see, but I don't see a rockstar candidate that will rally and unite everyone behind them. Cumber is still getting her feet wet as a councilwoman and doesn't have the name recognition or deep Jacksonville roots. I'm not sure Morgan has done enough on Council to excite anyone. Davis could be a great candidate, but he's going to be hurt by association with Curry. Carlucci seems solid and the best prospective mayor imo, but not sure he is a dynamic enough speaker/leader.
Really, I just think it's a disappointing group so far. Sadly, Jacksonville politics and government are so broken the people that could make the best politicians tend to want to stay out of the mud. It's not just a Jacksonville issue, but I think it's more pronounced there.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on May 20, 2021, 05:06:16 PM
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want former newscasters or name recognition mayors? Gimme local government participants...
Degan at least has proven to be an engaged and accomplished Jacksonville native beyond her news career. She may not be your cup of tea but she shouldn't be dismissed as just a name.
Deegan put up a great campaign, albeit a longshot one, against John "Trump" Rutherford. I think she should run for City Council first and hone her chops there. What district would she be in? Rory Diamond's? Now that would be a fun race to watch.
Yes - she is in Rory Diamond's district. That would be an interesting race!
Quote from: JeffreyS on May 21, 2021, 09:22:29 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on May 20, 2021, 05:06:16 PM
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want former newscasters or name recognition mayors? Gimme local government participants...
Degan at least has proven to be an engaged and accomplished Jacksonville native beyond her news career. She may not be your cup of tea but she shouldn't be dismissed as just a name.
Name and a face?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 21, 2021, 11:07:08 PM
Deegan put up a great campaign, albeit a longshot one, against John "Trump" Rutherford. I think she should run for City Council first and hone her chops there. What district would she be in? Rory Diamond's? Now that would be a fun race to watch.
Not sure if she's looking at local politics but watching her debate showed her competence and command of national issues.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 21, 2021, 11:21:09 PM
Yes - she is in Rory Diamond's district. That would be an interesting race!
She could also run at large, which would give her a better chance than the heavily Republican Beaches district. But if she ran in 2023 she'd presumably be running against Ron Salem who'd be tough to beat.
It appears supporters of Matt Carlucci are holding a Meet & Greet this Sunday.
The flyer on Carlucci's Twitter (https://twitter.com/matt_carlucci/status/1403145972004294656?s=21)
Over the last week, Donna Deegan has made some pretty serious moves in the direction of a bid for Mayor, establishing a political committee and making overtures of consideration for the job.
I know Deegan lost 39-61 against Rutherford in 2020, but what was the result in the Duval portion of the district? I would assume somewhat better than the district as a whole.
From the Duval SOE website:
Rutherford 169,852 57%
Deegan 125,498 43%
Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 08, 2021, 06:03:10 PM
From the Duval SOE website:
Rutherford 169,852 57%
Deegan 125,498 43%
Wow. That's the part of Duval gerrymandered to lean heavily Republican.
Interestingly, I got an email from Donna this evening. She announced her Donna for Duval PAC, and included this, "I promised you I would stay involved and keep working – and that's a promise I intend to keep. Right now, I'm looking seriously at how I might best serve our community next including a possible run for Mayor." ... and, she asked for money.
Tacachale - as you said, she didn't do that badly in very Red precincts in Duval
Here is Nate Monroe's take on Donna Deegans's plans:
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/07/07/donna-deegan-strongly-considering-jacksonville-mayoral-run-2023/7886832002/
It sounds like Donna Deegan is going to announce her campaign on Melissa Ross' radio show at 9 this morning.
https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1458036656485904384?s=21
Cool! Thanks for the update.
It's official.
https://www.donnaformayor.com/
This is a blow to the Carlucci campaign as in the absence of a strong democratic candidate he would take a lot of the moderate democrat vote. Davis will take the trumpers, Deegan will take the left, Matt is fighting for the middle, and Cumber gets a new bumper sticker for her Maserati (she still sports the sticker from her unopposed city council campaign).
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:
- If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
- If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan
This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town. He is the worst councilman I've ever had. He would be a worse mayor.
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.
Quote from: Steve on November 09, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:
- If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
- If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan
This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?
If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up
Quote from: Snaketoz on November 10, 2021, 07:40:47 AM
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town. He is the worst councilman I've ever had. He would be a worse mayor.
Quote from: thelakelander on November 10, 2021, 09:08:05 AM
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.
agreed - but Davis is quite likely
Quote from: Zac T on November 10, 2021, 11:12:39 AM
Quote from: Steve on November 09, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:
- If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
- If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan
This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?
If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up
A few reasons:
- As you stated, most strong Rs will vote for Carlucci over Deegan solely because of the letter after their names.
- Most Moderate Rs will not only vote for Carlucci, they'll happily vote for Carlucci as he is a very moderate R
- Carlucci has a strong amount of respect from the independents in town who are connected
Additionally, I can see Carlucci appealing with Black Democrats, at least to a small extent:
- He crossed party lines to endorse Nat Glover for Mayor in 2003 instead of endorsing John Peyton, his fellow Republican. This was on the heels of this: https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/jta-moves-ahead-new-director (Peyton was the deciding vote in selecting Morse over Blaylock to head JTA, then Morse left a year later.)
- Carlucci has been quite vocal in his support for removing the confederate monuments, as has Deegan.
In short, do I think he'll pull more Black Democrats than Deegan? HIGHLY unlikely. But, given that it will be a very close race, I think in that scenario Carlucci edges her out.
I like Deegan and Carlucci. I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them. That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement with the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start. For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race. I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).
I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections.
I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on November 11, 2021, 12:30:52 AM
I like Deegan and Carlucci. I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them. That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start. For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race. I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).
I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections.
I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.
I think it's a good thing that Deegan entered the race since it will motivate voters to turnout who otherwise wouldn't come. In 2019, low turnout due to the lack of a D candidate at the top of the ticket proved consequential in close council races
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?
Quote from: thelakelander on December 02, 2021, 05:02:56 PM
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?
He served almost 2 terms in an At-Large seat from 1987 to 1994, then elected to the District 4 seat from 1999-2003. Then to his current At-Large seat in 2019. Term limits were enacted in 1991 limiting Council members to two
consecutive terms. Thus, after serving your 8 years, you can sit out a term (or be elected to a different office) and then return for another 8 years.
Quote from: vicupstate on December 02, 2021, 04:19:01 PM
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.
Bet the Jags are happy about this one.
I wonder who he will endorse.
I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no. She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis. Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out. I'm guessing he'll endorse her.
Quote from: Captain Zissou on December 03, 2021, 09:49:44 AM
I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no. She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis. Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out. I'm guessing he'll endorse her.
Since he referenced fundraising as more effort than he bargained for, I am going to guess, with so many R's running, it was too competitive for R monies and, being a R (albeit a moderate one) he was unlikely to get enough from the D's to put him where he needed to get.
Deegan, being the only D may be able to consolidate all the D dollars plus draw from the moderate R's Carlucci could raise dollars from, creating a bigger war chest than he could raise. Likewise, Deegan may be able to increase the turnout of the D's, add moderate R's and leverage her #1 name recognition to give Davis a real horserace. Carlucci would have likely split the R's votes with Davis, Cumber, Ferarro, etc. and not been able to get the full D turnout for him, especially with Deegan in the race. Keep in mind, D's are the majority of the Duval electorate, they just need great turnout to take charge. Deegan may be able to do that for the D's better than Carlucci.
So, in the end, it looks to me like a numbers game. Carlucci has witnessed enough mayoral races to see that having more than one moderate candidate run just results in a wild card from the sidelines winning it all. Carlucci sacrificed his own aspirations for the greater good of the community because if he and Deegan both ran, it would have played into the hands of Davis. Given that many view Davis as Curry 2.0, that would not move the City away from the Good Ol' Boy control that Carlucci, Deegan and others would like to snuff out, once and for all.
I wonder what Carlucci will do with the dollars he already raised. Probably more than he needs for a second term on the Council. Will he move a chunk over to Deegan? That is likely what many of his donors may want him to do at this point. It would also give Deegan a good fundraising boost.
P.S. I haven't found any voters happy with Curry's kiss-ass treatment of Khan. People (including diehard Jags fans) seem to be enraged with the giveaways to Khan. If Khan bankrolls Davis, it could actually result in a big offset for him - i.e. amount to a negative endorsement that cost him votes. Will be interesting to watch and his opponents should exploit this if this actually occurs.
The good news for me is... I get to sit this one out as no longer attracted to any of them... a big giant MEH to the rest of em...
If it wasn't for a Joe Carlucci a Matt Carlucci would not have much traction now.
I have vowed to no longer vote for Serial Family Politicians.
Even if a Public Boat Ramp is named in honor of a Carlucci.
Ha!..... let's name a section of the First Coast Outer Beltway in honor of Senator Carlucci.
Somewhat long ago...... Redistrict revision process...... ends up Senator Carlucci, long established politically easterly St Johns River..... was faced with having his District revised to include Clay County.
At some point during the revision process, with the prospect of Clay, he stayed, as reported FTU...... " Over my dead body!".
Well..... turns out Clay would be Joe's new political playground, and support for the Brannon/ Chaffee Leg was a given.
How Carlucci's Political Mantra was : " Tell It Like It Is"
This is interesting. That Cumber is raising so much money from outside conservatives doesn't address who her base is in Jax that will actually vote for her. Aligning with Trump-y's may also not bode well for many in now-purple Duval.
Quote
Rick Perry hosts Texas fundraiser for Jacksonville's LeAnna Cumber
The former Texas Governor backed Lenny Curry in 2015.
For the second time in less than a decade, a former Texas Governor and Donald Trump Cabinet member is weighing in on the Jacksonville mayoral race with support this time for a sitting City Council member.
Rick Perry was the headliner at a Houston fundraiser Wednesday evening in support of JAX First, the political committee of potential candidate LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber.
Perry endorsed current Mayor Lenny Curry during the 2015 race. In this instance, however, he is weighing in months earlier in the cycle than he did when Curry ran. And he is doing so even before Cumber officially files, in what is the latest indication that her candidacy will be boosted by national support.
Perry's evening event was hosted by Ambassador Sada Cumber, who is the potential candidate's husband's uncle. He was appointed by former President George W. Bush as the first U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Additionally, LeAnna Cumber had a luncheon earlier in the day in Houston, where other alums of the second Bush administration attended.
Eduardo Aguirre, one co-host, was U.S. Ambassador to Spain. Fred Zeidman is Chair Emeritus of the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. Zeidman serves on the Board of the Republican Jewish Coalition.
Fundraising expectations for the trip were significant, with more than $100,000 expected between the two events. That's the latest sign that the Jacksonville mayoral race will be an expensive affair.
Cumber's political committee fundraising has been a lead story in recent months.
Cumber will report just over $165,000 in new money in January raised to her state-level JAX First political committee. That will put the committee at over $1.8 million raised since its inception in September 2021, and continues a trend of robust fundraising for the committee. The slowest month was December, where the committee raised just over $147,000.
Cumber's committee fundraising is good for second place in the field of potential candidates, though she has ground to make up on the frontrunner, who is also a Republican.
Building a Better Economy, the political committee of Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce Chair Daniel Davis, raised $368,700 in January from regional and statewide donors. The committee has $3.5 million on hand.
Official candidates in the race have struggled to match these pre-candidates.
Democrat Donna Deegan closed 2021 with roughly $310,000 banked between her Donna for Duval political committee and her campaign account.
Republican Al Ferraro, a City Council member, closed the year with a little less than $170,000 on hand.
We await fresh accounting from both.
Independent candidate Omega Allen, who has run in the last two mayoral elections, had about $5,000 on hand at the end of January, with $1,700 of that raised last month.
Nearly $6 million has been raised for this race already, with qualifying not until January 2023. Last year, Council member Matt Carlucci signaled how expensive the race will be when bowed out of a mayoral bid and opted to run for re-election instead, despite his own substantial fundraising.
Expect that the field will expand. State Sen. Audrey Gibson is looking at a potential campaign, which could only launch after the Legislative Session ends in March. Other Democrats likewise could emerge in the next few months.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/495009-perry-cumber/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 10, 2022, 05:29:29 PM
This is interesting. That Cumber is raising so much money from outside conservatives doesn't address who her base is in Jax that will actually vote for her. Aligning with Trump-y's may also not bode well for many in now-purple Duval.
Quote
Rick Perry hosts Texas fundraiser for Jacksonville's LeAnna Cumber
The former Texas Governor backed Lenny Curry in 2015.
For the second time in less than a decade, a former Texas Governor and Donald Trump Cabinet member is weighing in on the Jacksonville mayoral race with support this time for a sitting City Council member.
Rick Perry was the headliner at a Houston fundraiser Wednesday evening in support of JAX First, the political committee of potential candidate LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber.
Perry endorsed current Mayor Lenny Curry during the 2015 race. In this instance, however, he is weighing in months earlier in the cycle than he did when Curry ran. And he is doing so even before Cumber officially files, in what is the latest indication that her candidacy will be boosted by national support.
Perry's evening event was hosted by Ambassador Sada Cumber, who is the potential candidate's husband's uncle. He was appointed by former President George W. Bush as the first U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Additionally, LeAnna Cumber had a luncheon earlier in the day in Houston, where other alums of the second Bush administration attended.
Eduardo Aguirre, one co-host, was U.S. Ambassador to Spain. Fred Zeidman is Chair Emeritus of the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. Zeidman serves on the Board of the Republican Jewish Coalition.
Fundraising expectations for the trip were significant, with more than $100,000 expected between the two events. That's the latest sign that the Jacksonville mayoral race will be an expensive affair.
Cumber's political committee fundraising has been a lead story in recent months.
Cumber will report just over $165,000 in new money in January raised to her state-level JAX First political committee. That will put the committee at over $1.8 million raised since its inception in September 2021, and continues a trend of robust fundraising for the committee. The slowest month was December, where the committee raised just over $147,000.
Cumber's committee fundraising is good for second place in the field of potential candidates, though she has ground to make up on the frontrunner, who is also a Republican.
Building a Better Economy, the political committee of Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce Chair Daniel Davis, raised $368,700 in January from regional and statewide donors. The committee has $3.5 million on hand.
Official candidates in the race have struggled to match these pre-candidates.
Democrat Donna Deegan closed 2021 with roughly $310,000 banked between her Donna for Duval political committee and her campaign account.
Republican Al Ferraro, a City Council member, closed the year with a little less than $170,000 on hand.
We await fresh accounting from both.
Independent candidate Omega Allen, who has run in the last two mayoral elections, had about $5,000 on hand at the end of January, with $1,700 of that raised last month.
Nearly $6 million has been raised for this race already, with qualifying not until January 2023. Last year, Council member Matt Carlucci signaled how expensive the race will be when bowed out of a mayoral bid and opted to run for re-election instead, despite his own substantial fundraising.
Expect that the field will expand. State Sen. Audrey Gibson is looking at a potential campaign, which could only launch after the Legislative Session ends in March. Other Democrats likewise could emerge in the next few months.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/495009-perry-cumber/
Seems like the obvious (and effective) strategy would be the outsiders vs the locals. Easy to write that narrative.
^^ Yeah, does anyone that donated to JAX First actually live there?
Perfect example of why partisan city elections are poisonous. WTF does Rick Perry know about what is best for Jacksonville ?
Quote from: vicupstate on February 10, 2022, 08:25:33 PM
^^ Yeah, does anyone that donated to JAX First actually live there?
Perfect example of why partisan city elections are poisonous. WTF does Rick Perry know about what is best for Jacksonville ?
Agreed. Nationalizing local races is absurd, and turns our local politics into virtue-signaling theater. Meanwhile, the actual act of governing takes a back seat to constant resume-polishing for the next-higher office election. I usually give outsized weight to the (perceived) character of local candidates vs. their ideologies. I'd rather have a transparent, well-run government spending my tax dollars on priorities I don't support than a dysfunctional, backstabbing cabal of political climbers flushing those taxes down the toilet in a way that benefits nobody but their donors. If you run a dirty campaign for a local seat, it's a pretty good predictor of your behavior once you hold the office.
It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.
In the Charles Hunter Ideal World, only people who are legally eligible to vote in the election of a candidate may contribute to that candidate. Thus, I could only donate to the City Council District 1 race, all Duval-wide races, including the 5 At-Large Council seats, and the School Board, Florida Legislature, and Congress races for my respective districts, state-wide elections in Florida, and President/Vice President. You would not have to be registered to vote, although that would be nice, just live in the appropriate geographic area.
Thus, I couldn't give to a State Legislative candidate in Iowa, or a Congressional race in New York (and they couldn't solicit me). It also means the corporations (which are NOT people, sorry SCOTUS), interest groups, unions, etc., could not contribute to political campaigns. How political parties fund campaigns would have to be worked out. A key is to overturn Citizens United, so only "people" can contribute.
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 01:22:26 PM
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Tim Baker is not an out-of-the-area consultant dabbling in a local election. He lives in Jacksonville (I'd say he really lives in the Mayor's office, but the Mayor is never actually there... so that would be hyperbole). His wife worked in the Mayor's office. His former business partner is the current number 1 in the Mayor's office, and his current business partner was formerly the number 1 in the Mayor's office.
To describe Mr Baker as an 'outsider political consultant' in a local city council race is 100% not accurate.
QuoteIt makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.
That wouldn't accomplish anything. You'd still very much know what a candidate's party affiliation would be, and each party would drive turnout to a particular candidate just the same as today.
Quote from: fieldafm on February 11, 2022, 02:14:24 PM
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 01:22:26 PM
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Tim Baker is not an out-of-the-area consultant dabbling in a local election. He lives in Jacksonville (I'd say he really lives in the Mayor's office, but the Mayor is never actually there... so that would be hyperbole). His wife worked in the Mayor's office. His former business partner is the current number 1 in the Mayor's office, and his current business partner was formerly the number 1 in the Mayor's office.
To describe Mr Baker as an 'outsider political consultant' in a local city council race is 100% not accurate.
Thanks for correcting a lazy generalization on my part. I suppose it was accurate when he showed up to assist in electing Curry, if the article timeline is correct ("That certainly can't be traced simply to Baker arriving in town in 2015"), but wouldn't apply to the current situation 7 years later. Although, it's thematically similar for an outsider to come to town originally to influence a local election and then sticking around to influence the entire administration and subsequent races. Regardless, the complaint still stands as to the character of the political campaigning.
QuoteQuoteIt makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.
That wouldn't accomplish anything. You'd still very much know what a candidate's party affiliation would be, and each party would drive turnout to a particular candidate just the same as today.
How many people are signed up for mail-in ballots and are surprised when these off-cycle ones show up in their mailbox? How many will automatically vote for the "R" or "D", having barely heard either name or knowing nothing about either candidate? Participation roll-off in nonpartisan judicial elections -- where, given cursory research, it's easy enough to imply party affiliation -- that are held on the same ballot as partisan races suggests some effect. Granted, judgeships are not city council or mayoral seats, but they are low-information, low-interest elections. I think there's some relevancy there. Maybe forcing someone to Google a name would produce some sort of knowledge about the race other than the person's party affiliation.
Baker was also born in Jacksonville.
Its not like all registered republicans, or all registered democrats vote all the way down the ballot. Name recognition has a lot to do with whether someone participates further down the ballot. Turnout among political affiliations (and subsequently the targeting of messaging among that likely group of party-affiliated voters) has a lot do with that name recognition.
Corrine Brown's quick picks cards were talked about quite a bit locally a decade ago... but that same stuff occurred all the way back to the days when this country was first organized as a republic. Corrine's quick picks didn't have the word 'democrat' plastered all over it.
Constitutional amendments and local referendums have no party affiliation whatsoever attached to them, but generally the vote for those considerations fall along party affiliation preferences.
If you strip out all party affiliations, I just don't agree that voting preferences are going to dramatically change.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 01:22:26 PM
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Woods said the Paulson quote was taken out of context from a News4Jax discussion and used in a flyer. Howland is also using the clip out of context in television ads he has run during the Olympics on Ch. 12/NBC/First Coast News. FYI, Paulson used similar wording to the Ch. 4 debate in a debate she had with Howland on Ch. 47 last Sunday. As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context. Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow. A real disservice to the community and their viewers.
Would never vote for Howland or any other candidate that gets that down and dirty (or, for that matter, has Baker as their manager/consultant). If they are that dishonest before being elected, imagine what they would do if empowered by the office they seek. Clearly, they are running not to serve the public but only themselves and the special interests that back them.
By the way, in my view, Paulson blew away Howland in the debate. Clearly, he is not up to her level so it's probably why he plays dirty politics. He can't win on his own merits.
Quote from: fieldafm on February 11, 2022, 05:46:13 PM
Baker was also born in Jacksonville.
...
If you strip out all party affiliations, I just don't agree that voting preferences are going to dramatically change.
Sounds like an unfair characterization, then, to say Baker arrived in 2015 if he has roots and connections locally, as it's entirely typical for people to return to areas they find familiar. I appreciate the context.
I 100% agree with your points on down-ballot participation, constitutional amendments and referendums. That's part of what got me thinking this direction. I also agree that voter
preferences are unlikely to change. However, engagement might. And I'm thinking the effect on engagement may not be homogenous across party lines. Higher levels of education correlate to better turnout/reduced roll-off in down-ballot and nonpartisan elections, and education demographics vary across party lines.
I'll concede such a change might not matter today in Duval politics; if engagement among Republicans drops 2% and among Democrats 1%, we're likely still very Red in low-turnout elections. Admittedly, I was more musing than asserting a conclusion, and I suppose the cynic in me is thinking more along the lines of voter behavior than anything else. In big spend races -- like the topic of this thread, 2023 mayor -- the party affiliations will be clear and thus, your points probably prevail. Off-cycle council races? Water management district 37!%3? I still think there's a subset who would bubble in based on party affiliation, but opt-out if they didn't immediately know the candidates. As we grow purple-r, that could start to matter.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2022, 11:07:28 PM
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 01:22:26 PM
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Woods said the Paulson quote was taken out of context from a News4Jax discussion and used in a flyer. Howland is also using the clip out of context in television ads he has run during the Olympics on Ch. 12/NBC/First Coast News. FYI, Paulson used similar wording to the Ch. 4 debate in a debate she had with Howland on Ch. 47 last Sunday. As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context. Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow. A real disservice to the community and their viewers.
Would never vote for Howland or any other candidate that gets that down and dirty (or, for that matter, has Baker as their manager/consultant). If they are that dishonest before being elected, imagine what they would do if empowered by the office they seek. Clearly, they are running not to serve the public but only themselves and the special interests that back them.
By the way, in my view, Paulson blew away Howland in the debate. Clearly, he is not up to her level so it's probably why he plays dirty politics. He can't win on his own merits.
JLT, I'm fairly certain our politics are quite opposed, but after watching the debate and reading the Woods article, I agree in respect to Howland. While I am very anti-"defund the police", Trayce has made clear her policy is to
add to JSO resources for mental health professionals, not reallocate. I can't see the negative, and I don't find Howland's scarcity argument compelling when we can find hundreds of millions for Khan's subsidies and clown cars. Furthermore, I can't think of a single clear policy position Howland has articulated. This is coming from someone who, frankly, wants to be Republican, but observes Curry, Cumber, Howland, Diamond, DeSantis, and Trump and is left wondering -- is this the best we have? Do we really need our local politicos to toe the national party line? Does it really affect whether I can start recycling again, or go downtown for a night out without passing several blocks of closed businesses?
It's fairly damning that, as a right-of-center voter, I view Howland's list of endorsements as indicative of political machinery, not qualifications.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2022, 11:07:28 PM
As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context. Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow. A real disservice to the community and their viewers.
Does a TV station have the right to refuse a political ad?
Even WJXT, which exposed Howland's lies in the ad, is running the ad.
Quote from: fieldafm on February 11, 2022, 05:46:13 PM
Baker was also born in Jacksonville.
Its not like all registered republicans, or all registered democrats vote all the way down the ballot. Name recognition has a lot to do with whether someone participates further down the ballot. Turnout among political affiliations (and subsequently the targeting of messaging among that likely group of party-affiliated voters) has a lot do with that name recognition.
Corrine Brown's quick picks cards were talked about quite a bit locally a decade ago... but that same stuff occurred all the way back to the days when this country was first organized as a republic. Corrine's quick picks didn't have the word 'democrat' plastered all over it.
Constitutional amendments and local referendums have no party affiliation whatsoever attached to them, but generally the vote for those considerations fall along party affiliation preferences.
If you strip out all party affiliations, I just don't agree that voting preferences are going to dramatically change.
The parties themselves are VERY VESTED in 'keeping score' by the number of offices they hold. The local offices are also farm teams for higher offices. If the party is choosing whether to invest in a partisan race vs. a nonpartisan one, there is no doubt as to where they will put there resources. For the most part, it is pretty unusual to hear of a party spending on a nonpartisan race. While it isn't Florida, Charleston SC city elections converted from partisan to nonpartisan. Both parties, which had been getting more and more invested in partisan city elections, stopped being involved in them.
Obviously voters that consider themselves conservative will respond to conservative sounding nonpartisan candidates, and same for the liberal side, but the investment of the parties themselves is something different.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on February 12, 2022, 09:09:02 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2022, 11:07:28 PM
As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context. Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow. A real disservice to the community and their viewers.
Does a TV station have the right to refuse a political ad?
Even WJXT, which exposed Howland's lies in the ad, is running the ad.
Yes.
I would think most would not in most circumstances. Censorship or favoritism by the press should be frowned upon.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 12, 2022, 11:09:40 AM
I would think most would not in most circumstances. Censorship or favoritism by the press should be frowned upon.
But, truth in advertising is a standard product ads are supposedly held to. Should be the same across the board. If unregulated Twitter and Facebook are expected to ban "disinformation" postings, TV stations, on FCC regulated airwaves, should be doing the same.
To see how propaganda works, just look at what Russians think about invading Ukraine (not to mention COVID vaccines in this country). I fear the US is falling into the same trap. It starts with unethical political campaigns that are now all too common. If we can't hold those running for office to a higher standard as our leaders, what does it say about all other forms of communication. A slippery slope and just plain dangerous.
I trust the people to decide what is propaganda or disinformation or who is lying. I certainly don't trust Fox, CNN or even local stations to screen political ads. Talk about a slippery slope...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 13, 2022, 07:02:06 AM
I trust the people to decide what is propaganda or disinformation or who is lying. I certainly don't trust Fox, CNN or even local stations to screen political ads. Talk about a slippery slope...
I don't trust people to decide based on only propaganda and misinformation or, today, for many people to even recognize such when it is presented to them. In these days of social media (where supposedly millions of posts are made by trolls on behalf of Russia, China, et. al. for the sole purpose of misleading our citizens) and unscrupulous political tactics that debase civil and substantive discussions of serious issues, more and more people don't seem to utilize any other basis for their decisions.
You can say the main stream media has a bias, but even if so, it is much less than any other source of information. And at least the MSM makes a reasonable effort to be factual, accurate, accountable and balanced - maybe not perfect in the eyes of some but far better than the alternatives we are seeing today.
Contrast that with other sources that are deliberate and wholesale purveyors of misinformation, half-truths, lies, misleading presentations, unsubstantiated rumors, etc. to push dangerous or personal agendas or for the sole purpose of attracting eyeballs to enrich themselves without regard to any moral are ethical standards or to the harm they bring to our society.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 13, 2022, 10:58:42 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 13, 2022, 07:02:06 AM
I trust the people to decide what is propaganda or disinformation or who is lying. I certainly don't trust Fox, CNN or even local stations to screen political ads. Talk about a slippery slope...
I don't trust people to decide based on only propaganda and misinformation or, today, for many people to even recognize such when it is presented to them. In these days of social media (where supposedly millions of post are made by trolls on behalf of Russia, China, et. al. for the sole purpose of misleading our citizens) and unscrupulous political tactics that debase civil and substantive discussions of serious issues, more and more people don't seem to utilize any other basis for their decisions.
You can say the main stream media has a bias, but even if so, it is much less than any other source of information. And at least the MSM makes a reasonable effort to be factual, accurate, accountable and balanced - maybe not perfect in the eyes of some but far better than the alternatives we are seeing today.
Contrast that with other sources that are deliberate and wholesale purveyors of misinformation, half-truths, lies, misleading presentations, unsubstantiated rumors, etc. to push dangerous or personal agendas or for the sole purpose of attracting eyeballs to enrich themselves without regard to any moral are ethical standards or to the harm the bring to our society.
The problem with elevating MSM, government, or any institution above individual judgment is that those entities are, ultimately, run by people. So it really boils down to which people we trust -- and I think the body of evidence, in history, suggests we're all pretty capable of flawed judgment.
If you trust the aforementioned more than the general population, cool -- that's an opinion, and I see the logic. But all of them have also had their own failures and given us reasons to mistrust them. Personally, the concept of any centralized authority deciding what is accurate vs. not is terrifying precisely because of the human element. We've seen it with COVID: trust the science. As if the science is one singular opinion. But it isn't-- science is, by its nature, an amalgamation of thousands of expert opinions driving towards consensus (don't misinterpret that as an embrace of the Ladapo brand of "science").
The MSM is every bit as beholden to clicks and revenue streams as fringe outlets. It's unfortunate, but I prefer it to state-controlled media. The answer, IMO, is for voters to start rejecting that and looking at candidate character. Biden's election was at least in part a rejection of the Trump brand of politics. At the end of the day, I think it's up to voters to assert those values. That may be a depressing thought at the moment, but are the alternatives better? That's a real question.
"I trust the people to decide what is propaganda or disinformation or who is lying."
That's laughable. Are you paying attention? Trump supporters think the most verified election in history was stolen. They are listening to Trump, one of the most verifiable liars in modern history.
I trust the facts. However inconvenient or uncomfortable they may be.
Quote from: MusicMan on February 15, 2022, 08:38:28 PM
"I trust the people to decide what is propaganda or disinformation or who is lying."
That's laughable. Are you paying attention? Trump supporters think the most verified election in history was stolen. They are listening to Trump, one of the most verifiable liars in modern history.
I trust the facts. However inconvenient or uncomfortable they may be.
The laughable part is what flies over your head... the point... since you clearly missed it... is who or what is dispensing "the facts". In China, Russia, North Korea, etc... the government dispenses the facts... do you trust the facts dispensed by fox, msn, or cnn??? The uncomfortable truth is every news source I just listed is biased and the truth is left for the individual to parse out...
All 3 that you listed dispense a lot of factual reporting. But I disagree with your assessment.
Like the Congressional investigation into Jan 6. All 3 report what was said, what events happened (even if there is video some folks refuse to believe it).....
Its the individuals like Tucker C. who believe it is their job to 'interpret' the events that muddy the water.
Or 'reporting' that the attack on the capitol was "legitimate political discourse". That's like saying "slavery wasn't racist, the slave owners were." Reporting the fact that Trump said he would pardon those people involved is fact. Trying to rationalize it is the problem.
What about global climate change? A report was just issued by the best climate people in the US, NOAA, that sea level rise will be 1 to 1.5 feet in the next 25 years. That's reporting what the climate models are saying. FOX News pretending its BS is the problem. That's what Tucker and Friends do. If CNN reports it and says we need to discuss solutions, is that BS? In this particular instance the 'bias' is one news organization trying not to offend its customers and one news organization trying to find a solution.
The reason Dominion is suing FOX (and making progress) is because they ran with ridiculous stories put up by their top on-air personalities. From Reuters: "Dominion's lawsuit, filed in March, accused Fox of trying to boost its TV ratings by amplifying false conspiracy theories that the company rigged the presidential election against Republican Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden, a Democrat." So no, I don't trust the "loyal Fox Viewer" with pretty much anything. CNN will run blistering Op-Ed critiques of the Biden admin, I see them all the time. Fox was and is a tool of the GOP and conservatives. Fox is IMO the proverbial broken clock, twice a day its correct.
Your faith in the editors and newspeople is admirable. Seems almost religious... I have no such faith in them... especially with regards to sanitizing or censoring political ads. Let the candidates or their parties or organizations put out what they will and let the public decide. Gettin more slippery every day...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 16, 2022, 11:43:42 AM
Your faith in the editors and newspeople is admirable. Seems almost religious... I have no such faith in them... especially with regards to sanitizing or censoring political ads. Let the candidates or their parties or organizations put out what they will and let the public decide. Gettin more slippery every day...
If I run an ad personally attacking you and your character, making up lies, misrepresenting you (such as taking your words out of context to create the exact opposite impression of your position), spreading unfounded rumors about you... I am sorry, that should not be allowed. That's not expressing a point of view on an issue so it is justifiable and appropriate "censorship." (Just like yelling "fire" in a theater when there is none is not acceptable.)
It seems you are misapplying the concept of censorship to justify your apparent love of dirty politics, uncivil discourse and unfounded character assassination (not to be confused with airing factual dirty laundry such as proven criminal behavior, public lying, abuse of office, on-the-record comments in context, etc.). Your approach is much of what is wrong with this country today.
Perhaps I should be deported... or censored. Sheesh... I will continue to rely on my good judgement to determine who is lying... or cheating... or misrepresenting, or assassinating character. If you want editors and news anchors to do it for you... go for it. I know better...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 16, 2022, 02:11:36 PM
Perhaps I should be deported... or censored. Sheesh... I will continue to rely on my good judgement to determine who is lying... or cheating... or misrepresenting, or assassinating character. If you want editors and news anchors to do it for you... go for it. I know better...
Based on your representation, your talent (i.e. the ability to exercise extraordinary and uncanny good "judgement") is surely superior to probably 99% of the population. Congratulations :). But, for the greater good, I am not buying your faith in the populace to share such talent.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 16, 2022, 02:42:30 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 16, 2022, 02:11:36 PM
Perhaps I should be deported... or censored. Sheesh... I will continue to rely on my good judgement to determine who is lying... or cheating... or misrepresenting, or assassinating character. If you want editors and news anchors to do it for you... go for it. I know better...
Based on your representation, your talent (i.e. the ability to exercise extraordinary and uncanny good "judgement") is surely superior to probably 99% of the population. Congratulations :). But, for the greater good, I am not buying your faith in the populace to share such talent.
Hmmm... So you don't trust the populace? Perhaps it is
your approach that is the problem in this country.
Bringing back the Fairness Doctrine would be a big step in the right direction. So would bringing back the ownership limitations that use to be in place.
Neither of these would be censorship nor an infringement on free speech but would return some sanity.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 16, 2022, 03:49:23 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 16, 2022, 02:42:30 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 16, 2022, 02:11:36 PM
Perhaps I should be deported... or censored. Sheesh... I will continue to rely on my good judgement to determine who is lying... or cheating... or misrepresenting, or assassinating character. If you want editors and news anchors to do it for you... go for it. I know better...
Based on your representation, your talent (i.e. the ability to exercise extraordinary and uncanny good "judgement") is surely superior to probably 99% of the population. Congratulations :). But, for the greater good, I am not buying your faith in the populace to share such talent.
Hmmm... So you don't trust the populace? Perhaps it is your approach that is the problem in this country.
Based on how many people have been duped by Trump & Co's lies and who admit Facebook and like social media sites are their sole source of "news," you are damn right I don't trust the instincts of much of the populace in the present.
The main problem is the lack of diversity in "news" sources most people take in which is somewhat ironic given the internet opens the doors to thousands of sources. But, people can be intellectually lazy and, often, many only listen/follow sources that reinforce their existing beliefs and don't ferret out other view points that might offer alternatives. The perfect storm for propaganda on steroids.
A significant portion of the population doesn't follow the "news" at all. You would be amazed how many don't know a a day or two ahead that a hurricane is potentially headed our way. If they don't know that, you can imagine how little they know about anything else happening locally, statewide, nationally or globally. Now ask them about a Kardashian and they could tell you what they ate for breakfast today. A sad commentary on our society.
Rofl... you certainly make a great case for the Electoral College. I appreciate your insight... lol
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2022, 11:07:28 PM
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 01:22:26 PM
I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."
Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/)
Woods said the Paulson quote was taken out of context from a News4Jax discussion and used in a flyer. Howland is also using the clip out of context in television ads he has run during the Olympics on Ch. 12/NBC/First Coast News. FYI, Paulson used similar wording to the Ch. 4 debate in a debate she had with Howland on Ch. 47 last Sunday. As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context. Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow. A real disservice to the community and their viewers.
Would never vote for Howland or any other candidate that gets that down and dirty (or, for that matter, has Baker as their manager/consultant). If they are that dishonest before being elected, imagine what they would do if empowered by the office they seek. Clearly, they are running not to serve the public but only themselves and the special interests that back them.
By the way, in my view, Paulson blew away Howland in the debate. Clearly, he is not up to her level so it's probably why he plays dirty politics. He can't win on his own merits.
Nate Monroe calls out Nick Howland's supporters and cronies (including Sherriff Williams) for effectively defunding the police. It is not Tracye Paulson. Howland's hypocrisy is showing through. Ironic that his low-blow and grossly misleading out-of-context ad regarding defunding by his opponent actually applies to his own base of support yet he ignores it. He also appears to run only on this false issue. He really appears to just winning with an R by his name, and nothing else.
QuoteCOMMENTARY | Republican city council candidate Nick Howland seethes with anger over politicians who want to "defund the police," so it would stand to reason he'd be hopping mad at Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams, Mayor Lenny Curry, and the men and women he hopes to join on the council.
Those incumbents, after all, have squandered years of time that could have been spent building up the police force: Since passing the 2018-19 budget, the number of sworn officers employed by the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office has grown by only 19, from 1,768 to 1,787, according to annual budget documents. And that's despite the fact that in those years, the budget has swelled from about $439 million to a whopping $513 million.
How many more warm bodies are taxpayers actually getting for all that extra money? JSO's overall workforce grew from 3,227 to 3,798 in that same 2018-2022 span, but the vast majority of that growth is attributable to a gush of new civilian employees rather than sworn officers, whose numbers have barely changed....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2022/02/15/jacksonville-candidate-nick-howland-should-look-friends-defunding-police-nate-monroe/6799070001/
Interesting poll results... every vote counts!
QuoteThe special election between Tracye Polson and Nick Howland is shaping up as "another impossibly tight race" for Jacksonville City Council with Polson slightly favored in University of North Florida poll released Thursday.
The poll of likely voters found 50.3% of them had already voted for Polson or planned to cast a ballot for her while 49.7% said Howland was their choice in the race.
The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida described the poll's likely voters as respondents who said they definitely would vote in that race or had already cast ballots by mail or with in-person early voting.
"It looks like we are dealing with another impossibly tight race for City Council," said Michael Binder, faculty director for the research lab......
.....Looking ahead to 2023 when a full slate of candidates will be on the ballot for mayor and City Council, the UNF Poll found Donna Deegan is the front-runner with 41% of poll respondents saying they would vote for her if the election were today.
In the race for sheriff, Lakesha Burton, a Democrat, got the nod from 39% of respondents when asked who they would support if the election were held now.
Deegan polled well ahead of JAX Chamber CEO Daniel Davis, a Republican who has not announced a run but has raised millions of dollars he could use on a campaign. Davis was preferred by 20% of respondents, Jacksonville City Council member LeAnna Cumber by 9%, council member Al Ferraro by 7%, Darby Richardson by 2% and Omega Allen by 1%.
The poll is the first since City Council member Matt Carlucci withdrew as a candidate for mayor, a development that helped Deegan. Binder said that "what was previously an even split has turned into a wide lead" for her.
Lakesha Burton
In the sheriff's race, Burton has the edge over two Republicans: T.K. Waters at 27% and Matthew Nemeth at 15%. Trailing the pack were Democratic candidates Tony Cummings at 4% and Wayne Clark at 2%.
Binder said the race for sheriff "is a little bit closer" than the current spread for mayor "but folks are clearly excited about Lakesha Burton, the first Black woman to run for Jacksonville sheriff."
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2022/02/17/unf-poll-jacksonville-city-council-special-election-tight-race-mayor-sheriff-jaguars/6822128001/?utm_source=jacksonville-News%20Alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news_alerts&utm_term=news_alert&utm_content=FLORIDA-JACKSONVILLE-NLETTER01
In a recent UNF public policy poll, Mayer Lenny Curry received a 47% approval rating.
"In the poll, Mayor Lenny Curry was given an approval rating of 47% by voters, with 45% disapproving and 7% saying they don't know. Sheriff Mike Williams got a 51% approval rating, 36% disapproval and 13% who don't know."
I wonder what kind of approval rating a sea slug would get? Curry has been a disaster. THIS is why, Bridge Troll, I don't trust the public at large. They are poorly informed and lack judgement. They only approve because they voted for him.
Quote from: MusicMan on February 17, 2022, 08:01:11 PM
In a recent UNF public policy poll, Mayer Lenny Curry received a 47% approval rating.
"In the poll, Mayor Lenny Curry was given an approval rating of 47% by voters, with 45% disapproving and 7% saying they don't know. Sheriff Mike Williams got a 51% approval rating, 36% disapproval and 13% who don't know."
I wonder what kind of approval rating a sea slug would get? Curry has been a disaster. THIS is why, Bridge Troll, I don't trust the public at large. They are poorly informed and lack judgement. They only approve because they voted for him.
I guess that goes for Biden too... you guys make the perfect case for electoral college...lol
QuoteLess than half of Americans approve of President Joe Biden, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The national opinion poll, conducted Feb 14-15, found that 44% of U.S. adults approved of Biden's performance in office while 51% disapproved and the rest were not sure. Biden's approval numbers have hovered below 50% since August.
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
I often think about how Republicans have won the popular vote 1 time since 1992. The electoral college is the only thing keeping them competitive at the executive level
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
QuoteTHIS is why, Bridge Troll, I don't trust the public at large. They are poorly informed and lack judgement. They only approve because they voted for him.
Perhaps you want to bring back literacy testing to vote...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test#:~:text=From%20the%201890s%20to%20the,literacy%20in%20order%20to%20vote.&text=In%20practice%2C%20these%20tests%20were,problematic%20by%20the%20ruling%20party.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Nope... what is elitist is the "I don't trust the public at large and those poorly informed and lacking "proper" judgement being allowed to vote " quote from MM and others. Actually wannabe elitist is a better descriptor...
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 10:56:44 AM
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Nope... what is elitist is the "I don't trust the public at large and those poorly informed and lacking "proper" judgement being allowed to vote " quote from MM and others. Actually wannabe elitist is a better descriptor...
To the degree that the public is uninformed (to whatever degree), how does the EC improve that situation? How does being against the EC make one elitist or how does the EC guard against elitism? Does using the EC make the electorate more informed?
I don't understand the point you were trying to make.
"Perhaps you want to bring back literacy testing to vote..."
No. But I'm all for having candidates have to provide financial statements. I'm all for (Presidential) candidates being required to pass a comprehensive test on the US Constitution. That would eliminate a lot of problems. (And would have eliminated Trump as a candidate.)
And while I don't trust those poorly informed citizens, I'm not doing everything possible to prevent them from voting, which the GOP has been obsessed with.
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 12:49:49 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 10:56:44 AM
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Nope... what is elitist is the "I don't trust the public at large and those poorly informed and lacking "proper" judgement being allowed to vote " quote from MM and others. Actually wannabe elitist is a better descriptor...
To the degree that the public is uninformed (to whatever degree), how does the EC improve that situation? How does being against the EC make one elitist or how does the EC guard against elitism? Does using the EC make the electorate more informed?
I don't understand the point you were trying to make.
The reference to the EC was a poke at my democrat friends who clearly want the EC revoked or rescinded. One of the many reasons for the EC was to prevent the uninformed or mislead public from electing the "wrong " candidate...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
Quote"The function of the College of Electors in choosing the president can be likened to that in the Roman Catholic Church of the College of Cardinals selecting the Pope. The original idea was for the most knowledgeable and informed individuals from each State to select the president based solely on merit and without regard to State of origin or political party."[43]
According to Supreme Court Justice Robert H. Jackson, in a dissenting opinion, the original intention of the framers was that the electors would not feel bound to support any particular candidate, but would vote their conscience, free of external pressure.
"No one faithful to our history can deny that the plan originally contemplated, what is implicit in its text, that electors would be free agents, to exercise an independent and nonpartisan judgment as to the men best qualified for the Nation's highest offices."[44]
In support for his view, Justice Jackson cited Federalist No. 68:
'It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any pre-established body, but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture... It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.'
Dr. Philip J. VanFossen of Purdue University explains that the original purpose of the electors was not to reflect the will of the citizens, but rather to "serve as a check on a public who might be easily misled."[45]
Dr. Randall Calvert, the Eagleton Professor of Public Affairs and Political Science at Washington University, St. Louis, stated, "At the framing the more important consideration was that electors, expected to be more knowledgeable and responsible, would actually do the choosing."[46]
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 10:56:44 AM
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Nope... what is elitist is the "I don't trust the public at large and those poorly informed and lacking "proper" judgement being allowed to vote " quote from MM and others. Actually wannabe elitist is a better descriptor...
The answer isn't just eliminating the electoral college. It's better educating the voting public, raising the bar for civil discourse and political campaign marketing along with removing the corruptive influence of campaign financing, voter suppression and gerrymandering. We are far from fixing any of these issues and its getting worse, not better.
The conservative Supreme Court and GOP are complicit in exacerbating all these issues and that's why, despite countervailing popular votes and/or demographics, they are holding on to the reigns of power. For all of Trump and cronies complaining about rigged elections, it is their party that is doing most of the rigging by intimidating, suppressing and/or discouraging voting by voters likely to vote for others, transferring the fate of contested elections to the hands of nonprofessional and partisan elections officials and/or legislatures, running phantom candidates, taking gerrymandering to new extremes, etc.
One of the worst decisions by the Supreme Court was Citizens United, deeming corporations "people" that can donate to campaigns with little or no constraints, accountability or disclosure. Look no further than the dark money that Florida Power & Light/Nextera has used to influence Florida politics and the sale of JEA. And, we only know about that due to litigation and whistleblowing. For sure, there are thousands more examples that never see the light of day. Just see our elected officials kotow to special interests to see evidence of same.
"Dr. Philip J. VanFossen of Purdue University explains that the original purpose of the electors was not to reflect the will of the citizens, but rather to "serve as a check on a public who might be easily misled."[45]
Clearly no longer works! In any case, the public picks the candidate, and they are still easily mislead.
Quote from: MusicMan on February 19, 2022, 10:15:58 AM
"Dr. Philip J. VanFossen of Purdue University explains that the original purpose of the electors was not to reflect the will of the citizens, but rather to "serve as a check on a public who might be easily misled."[45]
Clearly no longer works! In any case, the public picks the candidate, and they are still easily mislead.
Of course they could simply be making free choices you don't agree with... how is that sea slug comparison going?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 18, 2022, 01:26:34 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 10:56:44 AM
Quote from: vicupstate on February 18, 2022, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 18, 2022, 08:44:46 AM
There is no "case" for the electoral college. Its a failure that lets candidates with fewer votes win elections. Hopefully at some point, we'll admit the Founding Fathers made some serious miscalculations. The concept of the electoral college being one.
The case for the EC is exactly what you're arguing... that the uninformed public will make a poor choices and intelligent, informed, smart electors(like yourselves) make the correct choice... rofl... you guys are soooo transparently elitist you must have body guards and entourages.
Meanwhile Curry stands at 47% approval and Biden at 44%... just who is the sea slug MM?
So not wanting to be governed by the minority is elitist? The EC actual made some sense in the 1780's, but it does not today. Given how broken our political system is today, a switch to a parliamentary system looks a lot better. No chance of either happening. Getting a Constitutional Amendment to say the sun rises in the East would be impossible today.
Nope... what is elitist is the "I don't trust the public at large and those poorly informed and lacking "proper" judgement being allowed to vote " quote from MM and others. Actually wannabe elitist is a better descriptor...
The answer isn't just eliminating the electoral college. It's better educating the voting public, raising the bar for civil discourse and political campaign marketing along with removing the corruptive influence of campaign financing, voter suppression and gerrymandering. We are far from fixing any of these issues and its getting worse, not better.
The conservative Supreme Court and GOP are complicit in exacerbating all these issues and that's why, despite countervailing popular votes and/or demographics, they are holding on to the reigns of power. For all of Trump and cronies complaining about rigged elections, it is their party that is doing most of the rigging by intimidating, suppressing and/or discouraging voting by voters likely to vote for others, transferring the fate of contested elections to the hands of nonprofessional and partisan elections officials and/or legislatures, running phantom candidates, taking gerrymandering to new extremes, etc.
One of the worst decisions by the Supreme Court was Citizens United, deeming corporations "people" that can donate to campaigns with little or no constraints, accountability or disclosure. Look no further than the dark money that Florida Power & Light/Nextera has used to influence Florida politics and the sale of JEA. And, we only know about that due to litigation and whistleblowing. For sure, there are thousands more examples that never see the light of day. Just see our elected officials kotow to special interests to see evidence of same.
+1000
Quote from: BridgeTroll on February 19, 2022, 10:46:37 AM
Quote from: MusicMan on February 19, 2022, 10:15:58 AM
"Dr. Philip J. VanFossen of Purdue University explains that the original purpose of the electors was not to reflect the will of the citizens, but rather to "serve as a check on a public who might be easily misled."[45]
Clearly no longer works! In any case, the public picks the candidate, and they are still easily mislead.
Of course they could simply be making free choices you don't agree with... how is that sea slug comparison going?
If you can rig the game, you can get any result you seek, it has nothing to do with free choice. If it reflected free choice, there would be no EC.
It seems we have come to the conclusion, without meaning to, that the EC is the ultimate elitist construct. BT I am with you, let "We the People" decide. Throw the EC in the dustbin.
Quote from: MusicMan on February 20, 2022, 03:43:30 PM
It seems we have come to the conclusion, without meaning to, that the EC is the ultimate elitist construct. BT I am with you, let "We the People" decide. Throw the EC in the dustbin.
Good luck with that... better luck with the whole sea slug thing...
Audrey Gibson just threw her hat in the mayor's race:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/530327-gibson-mayor/
Here we go.
Initial reaction - this will hurt Deegan, as likely Gibson voters are also likely Deegan voters against Curry Republicans. Very few likely Gibson voters seem to be likely voters for the Curry Republicans. Will this allow two Curry Republicans to advance to the general election?
^ I don't know where Gibson's donor base is but it will be telling if it's mostly traditional GOP donors. Sad to see the constant siphoning off from, and/or division among, decent candidates allowing the type of recent mayors we have had until now holding the office.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 07, 2022, 02:59:13 PM
Audrey Gibson just threw her hat in the mayor's race:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/530327-gibson-mayor/
Expected but unfortunate (especially for Donna Deegan) - if this leads to Davis vs. Gibson in runoff, it won't be close - or imagine if this means Davis and Cumber end up being the top two
^ Agreed. It seems clear to me that Gibson's base is not likely to provide the dollars needed for this campaign. If GOP-ers are her donors, that should make it clear to her base that she is only going to be a spoiler for the Democrats and assure the election of another GOP mayor who will likely only give lip service to Gibson's base.
I doubt Davis or Cumber are going to be nonpartisan (maybe with the exception of a minor bone thrown to Gibson for being a spoiler?) when it comes to running this City, just as Curry isn't.
What incentive does Gibson have to take GOP money and sabotage her own party? Does she legitimately think she can make it to the final 2?
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on June 08, 2022, 06:06:59 PM
What incentive does Gibson have to take GOP money and sabotage her own party? Does she legitimately think she can make it to the final 2?
I think the real question is, regardless of any scenario considered, can she win, period? I have my doubts as stated above: lack of money, mild name recognition, a potentially smaller base, historically lower voter turnout/enthusiasm of her base, etc.
I can only speculate as to her motives but they might include the usual suspects: ego, delusion, relying on an echo chamber who says she has a chance, a nothing-to-lose, only-to-gain attitude, to build name recognition for a future opportunity, a chance to put a spot light on her community priorities and pull the other candidates into discussing/addressing those and maybe even extracting some electioneering promises to hold them accountable later, a promise from the GOP for "rewards" down the road... or, sincerely running on principal and that she can win if she plays her cards right. She could also back out before the election, having extracted something from Deegan or others that she wants in return for her endorsement/delivering her base.
As noted, regardless, at this point, her entry does not bode well for Democrats taking the office given our mayoral election history of recent times (though Alvin Brown did manage to be the exception one time - albeit against a very woke Republican. Not going to happen this time.)
But, as they say, that's why they play the game. You never know...
I do agree 2011 was an odd set of circumstances. After the First Election Mike Hogan had a 65-35 advantage in the polls over Alvin Brown. Then the strangest thing happened - Mike Hogan's people let him talk in public; HUGE mistake. After that, a couple of big donors broke with Hogan, and it became a race. Additionally, Brown got the vote out in a few key precincts and districts.
Anybody who thinks Audrey Gibson didn't come to play is kidding themselves. She's got a strong base and has been a well liked and respected leader in the state legislature.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on June 08, 2022, 06:06:59 PM
What incentive does Gibson have to take GOP money and sabotage her own party? Does she legitimately think she can make it to the final 2?
well Alvin Brown finished #2 in the 2011 first election because two moderate Republicans split the vote. As noted in the post above, she should be taken seriously and could very well make the runoff.
Realized I forgot to update this.
As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2022/09/01/chamber-commerce-ceo-daniel-davis-run-jacksonville-mayor/7960822001/) his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on October 12, 2022, 10:57:52 PM
Realized I forgot to update this.
As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2022/09/01/chamber-commerce-ceo-daniel-davis-run-jacksonville-mayor/7960822001/) his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.
Most people I talk to, including the many disappointed former Curry supporters, consider Daniel Davis as Curry 2.0. Davis is clearly the "establishment" candidate so expect more of the status quo if he is elected. If you approve of Curry, he is your guy. If not, better seek out another candidate.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on October 12, 2022, 11:03:12 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on October 12, 2022, 10:57:52 PM
Realized I forgot to update this.
As [long] anticipated, JaxChamber CEO Daniel Davis launched (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2022/09/01/chamber-commerce-ceo-daniel-davis-run-jacksonville-mayor/7960822001/) his campaign for Mayor last month, after accumulating more than $4 million in campaign funds through his political committee. He is officially the fourth Republican and ninth overall candidate to join the race.
Most people I talk to, including the many disappointed former Curry supporters, consider Daniel Davis as Curry 2.0. Davis is clearly the "establishment" candidate so expect more of the status quo if he is elected. If you approve of Curry, he is your guy. If not, better seek out another candidate.
Definitely not Curry 2.0
Curry has had a uniquely contentious time in office. Many see Davis as a return to a more Peyton-ish type of governing: cordial & competent.
Peyton and Curry were pawns in the GOP's power accumulation chess game. Neither was particularly qualified nor had any real vision for the city. Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth.
Quote from: fsu813 on October 13, 2022, 12:13:04 PM
Many see Davis as a return to a more Peyton-ish type of governing: cordial & competent.
You think so? I mean, Peyton was certainly cordial, but I felt like the job overwhelmed him at times. I mean it's a tough gig for sure, but I equated Peyton's takeover from Delaney as the equivalent of getting in a moving rowboat then when Peyton took the helm, he stopped rowing. The boat moved forward for a while thanks to Delaney's 8 years of rowing, then he blamed the lack of progress on things on the financial crisis. While that certainly was real for the final 3 years of his second term, it doesn't explain the lack of forward moving in the first 5 other than riding the current that was already there.
Quote from: vicupstate on October 13, 2022, 01:58:38 PM
Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth.
I'd argue agenda for the next mayor is largely already written, no matter what "vision" they have: pump money into Downtown redevelopment, manage infrastructure/resiliency issues, and make progress on affordable housing availability. Anything else is around the edges.
fsu813, you forgot "Keep the Jaguars happy."
Jags are Downtown development. Same pot. To me, anyway.
Quote from: fsu813 on October 13, 2022, 10:22:29 PM
Quote from: vicupstate on October 13, 2022, 01:58:38 PM
Their mediocre accomplishments were sufficient for an electorate that expects nor desires anything else. Davis appears cut from the same cloth.
I'd argue agenda for the next mayor is largely already written, no matter what "vision" they have: pump money into Downtown redevelopment, manage infrastructure/resiliency issues, and make progress on affordable housing availability. Anything else is around the edges.
I am not sure I agree. All the candidates will talk to these issues but which ones will really take them head on once elected? I certainly don't see Davis' leadership at the Chamber leading to anything more substantive than lip service, particularly on the last two issues you list, with no real follow ups. Consider that the Chamber pretty much overlaps the influential and controlling membership of the Civic Council and the large campaign donor class and tell me that their chosen candidate will be different than the past.
On the first issue, it's hard to justify pumping more money into Downtown over what has already been invested given the track record of little return. As discussed on the Jaxson, more money for Downtown isn't necessarily the ultimate fix for it. A lack of vision, lack of appreciation for historic preservation, no rational and consistent master plan, chasing pots of gold at the end of rainbows, poor leadership... that all needs to change before one can justify pumping more money into Downtown.
The Chamber class certainly hasn't been out front on resiliency that I can recall. But they have been out front on supporting Shad Khan's projects. And, it has been gung ho on the questionably worthwhile deepening of the port in spite of studies showing it is certain to increase storm surge flooding of the City in the future. So much for resiliency.
Regarding general infrastructure, where was the Chamber when it came to choosing how to prioritize the spending of the increased gas tax? Did they speak for repurposing the hundreds of millions on the wasteful AVs to other more worthy infrastructure projects? Have they advocated for repurposing developer incentives for infrastructure projects at-large? Do they ever ask FDOT to do for Jacksonville what it does for other cities in Florida? Do they ever promote mass transit issues? Have they taken a lead on drainage or septic tanks removals? Have they advocated for parks and bike paths?
Solving housing affordability is a complex and entrenched (and possibly expensive) issue with lots of contributing factors well beyond the control of just the mayor so what magic bullet in a 4 to 8 year term can a mayor offer that is credible? Will a mayor be willing to offer City incentives on par with other developments to promote large increases in building affordable housing? Given this issue has only recently risen in the public-at-large consciousness following a perfect storm of massive housing and rent appreciation, high interest rates and building costs and limited supply it may need to hang around a bit longer to gain greater political traction. The current constituency for this issue likely speaks loud but may not be sufficiently large enough to deliver a lot of votes at the ballot box... unless, as in Silicon Valley, businesses and other essential service providers can no longer find enough employees because they can't afford to live nearby. Only then, I suspect, will the community feel enough pain to grow this issue's stature. I don't think we are there yet.
Crime, road and park maintenance, social infrastructure, education, economic growth balanced with growth management, zoning, traffic, neighborhood drainage... broad-based quality of life issues.... those seem to be the everlasting bread and butter issues that every mayor ultimately seems to be graded on. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Candidate Qualifying for the Spring 2023 Jacksonville elections closed about a half-hour ago. According to the Supervisor of Elections office there are seven candidates qualified for the ballot:
NPA
Omega Allen NPA
REP
LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber
Daniel Davis
Al Ferraro
Fred Keasler
DEM
Donna Deegan
Audrey Gibson
WRITE IN
Brian Griffin
https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Candidate/Committee-Lists-Reports-Profiles
T. K. Waters will continue as Sherriff, Jerry Holland will return as SOE, and Jim Overton as Tax Collector, as none drew opponents.
The only other county-wide non-Council race to be contested is the Property Appraiser, drawing two Republicans (Danny Becton and Jason Fischer) and one Democrat (Joyce Morgan).
Will Daniel Davis ever have a commercial where he speaks?
Nate Monroe gives a lengthy analysis of the mayor's race at this point in time. Doesn't leave many stones unturned in revealing many of the dynamics for each significant candidate:
QuoteNate Monroe: In quest for mayor, challengers hope to derail coronation for establishment scion
...Jacksonville city elections feature a jungle primary in March in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation compete against one another for votes, followed by a runoff in May among the top two vote-getters if no one wins an outright majority. It's a recipe that complicates conventional electoral math and can lead to surprises, and it makes larger fields with multiple viable candidates, as this year appears to feature, difficult to handicap....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/01/20/analysis-republican-democratic-heavyweights-vie-for-jacksonville-mayor/69820673007/
What are the chances that Daniels and Cumber will cancel out each other in the primary? Like Mullany and Moran did in 2011.
Big time mud slinging between Cumber and Davis... latest in the article below:
QuoteJacksonville mayor candidates charge the other cannot be trusted after JEA sales attempt
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/01/27/jacksonville-mayor-candidates-husband-involved-in-firms-jea-bid/69820709007/
I remember when Joe Carlucci was faced with redistrict....... he wuz gonna have to represent Clay County..... Florida Times Union article: " Over My Dead Body ! "
Well ..... Clay Happened...... and Joe dug in, support for Brannon/ Chaffee ( First Coast Beltway)
State Farm Agents inextricably involved in Growth Management/ Development scenarios.
Next!?
What does Cuban History/ Father have to do with running Jacksonville Government?
I fled South Florida Cuban Influx. Does that qualify me for political office??
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on January 27, 2023, 10:16:24 PM
I fled South Florida Cuban Influx. Does that qualify me for political office??
Nope, just a racist prick.
Quote from: fieldafm on January 28, 2023, 09:59:43 AM
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on January 27, 2023, 10:16:24 PM
I fled South Florida Cuban Influx. Does that qualify me for political office??
Nope, just a racist prick.
Doesn't that qualify him to be Governor?
Two interesting articles in the Florida Times Union to contrast.
Nate Monroe highlights the huge fiscal issues facing the City over the next 3 or 4 years thanks to Curry's mismanagement and kicking the can down the road. Highlights include the underfunded solid waste fund, the underfunded pension fund, increased debt principal and interest payments, more needed infrastructure improvements, demands for more police funding, new police HQ's and/or jail, Khan's inevitable request for stadium improvements and the lingering desire for a new convention center.
Then, Sheriff TK Waters endorses Curry 2.0, Daniel Davis, for mayor based on Davis' promise to hire more police, increase hiring incentives and salaries and, amazingly, maybe even reinstating the police pension fund, underfunded already by $2.6 billion. Davis, like so many past mayors, is buying his police endorsement at the expense of the taxpayers, which is why we have some of our largest budget problems. Davis doesn't explain how he will live up to these promises while dealing with all the budget issues highlighted by Monroe but borrowing more money is just mortgaging the City's future (see Lenny Curry's favorite ploy and why Davis is Curry 2.0) and will increase debt service costs due to higher leveraging by the City. The real solution is raising previously lowered property taxes but I don't expect Davis to come close to admitting to that.
QuoteDaniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff's endorsement
Jacksonville mayoral candidate Daniel Davis said he will work with Sheriff T.K. Waters to add more patrol officers as Davis accepted an endorsement by Waters in the mayor's race....
...."Sheriff, you've asked for more manpower," Davis told Waters during the endorsement announcement Tuesday. "You mark it down today – we will add more police officers to our streets."
Davis did not put a specific number on officers. He said Waters is "the expert" and as mayor, he would make sure the sheriff has the necessary resources for the Sheriff's Office, which is the single biggest portion of the city's budget
Davis also said he would seek to provide employment benefits that will help the Sheriff's Office recruit and retain officers....
....Davis did not rule out bringing back pensions as a retirement benefit. The city stopped providing pensions to all city employees hired after Oct. 1, 2017, and replaced that benefit with 401(k) style retirement accounts....
....At the urging of Mayor Lenny Curry, Duval County voters approved a half-cent sales tax in 2016 to help pay down the city's massive pension debt. The biggest portion of the financial obligation is in the Police and Fire Pension Fund....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/01/24/jacksonville-sheriff-endorses-daniel-davis-in-mayors-race/69836378007/?itm_medium=recirc&itm_source=taboola&itm_campaign=internal&itm_content=BelowArticleFeed-FeedRedesign
QuoteNate Monroe: Next Jacksonville mayor could feel squeeze with Jags stadium, jail relocation
COMMENTARY | The next Jacksonville mayor and City Council are on course to confront a pile of thorny financial problems that could box them into weighing painful decisions first-term elected officials are usually desperate to avoid: tax or fee increases, deep spending cuts, large borrowing that could harm the city's financial health, or simply scaling back their policy ambitions...
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/01/27/jags-stadium-downtown-are-big-knots-for-next-mayor-to-untangle/69847231007/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 29, 2023, 12:58:20 AM
Two interesting articles in the Florida Times Union to contrast.
Nate Monroe highlights the huge fiscal issues facing the City over the next 3 or 4 years thanks to Curry's mismanagement and kicking the can down the road. Highlights include the underfunded solid waste fund, the underfunded pension fund, increased debt principal and interest payments, more needed infrastructure improvements, demands for more police funding, new police HQ's and/or jail, Khan's inevitable request for stadium improvements and the lingering desire for a new convention center.
Then, Sheriff TK Waters endorses Curry 2.0, Daniel Davis, for mayor based on Davis' promise to hire more police, increase hiring incentives and salaries and, amazingly, maybe even reinstating the police pension fund, underfunded already by $2.6 billion. Davis, like so many past mayors, is buying his police endorsement at the expense of the taxpayers, which is why we have some of our largest budget problems. Davis doesn't explain how he will live up to these promises while dealing with all the budget issues highlighted by Monroe but borrowing more money is just mortgaging the City's future (see Lenny Curry's favorite ploy and why Davis is Curry 2.0) and will increase debt service costs due to higher leveraging by the City. The real solution is raising previously lowered property taxes but I don't expect Davis to come close to admitting to that.
QuoteDaniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff's endorsement
Jacksonville mayoral candidate Daniel Davis said he will work with Sheriff T.K. Waters to add more patrol officers as Davis accepted an endorsement by Waters in the mayor's race....
...."Sheriff, you've asked for more manpower," Davis told Waters during the endorsement announcement Tuesday. "You mark it down today – we will add more police officers to our streets."
Davis did not put a specific number on officers. He said Waters is "the expert" and as mayor, he would make sure the sheriff has the necessary resources for the Sheriff's Office, which is the single biggest portion of the city's budget
Davis also said he would seek to provide employment benefits that will help the Sheriff's Office recruit and retain officers....
....Davis did not rule out bringing back pensions as a retirement benefit. The city stopped providing pensions to all city employees hired after Oct. 1, 2017, and replaced that benefit with 401(k) style retirement accounts....
....At the urging of Mayor Lenny Curry, Duval County voters approved a half-cent sales tax in 2016 to help pay down the city's massive pension debt. The biggest portion of the financial obligation is in the Police and Fire Pension Fund....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/01/24/jacksonville-sheriff-endorses-daniel-davis-in-mayors-race/69836378007/?itm_medium=recirc&itm_source=taboola&itm_campaign=internal&itm_content=BelowArticleFeed-FeedRedesign
QuoteNate Monroe: Next Jacksonville mayor could feel squeeze with Jags stadium, jail relocation
COMMENTARY | The next Jacksonville mayor and City Council are on course to confront a pile of thorny financial problems that could box them into weighing painful decisions first-term elected officials are usually desperate to avoid: tax or fee increases, deep spending cuts, large borrowing that could harm the city's financial health, or simply scaling back their policy ambitions...
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/01/27/jags-stadium-downtown-are-big-knots-for-next-mayor-to-untangle/69847231007/
Funny how in several years they are still working on the original three neighborhoods outlined in the Septic Phase Out Program. I called JEA in February of 2022, and they stated they would be starting the resident outreach in areas surrounding Riverview before the end of 2023. Still no word. Did all those funds get moved elsewhere? There has been essentially zero update from JEA. The webpage for the phaseout has literally not been updated in years. The situation is comical. A several $100M project doesn't warrant community updates I guess.
I will work very hard to make sure DeSantis Political Aspirations are squelched.
Starting with Susie Wiles.More.
And nothing more here on this Endless Poop Thread.
FP&L
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 29, 2023, 12:58:20 AM
Two interesting articles in the Florida Times Union to contrast.
Nate Monroe highlights the huge fiscal issues facing the City over the next 3 or 4 years thanks to Curry's mismanagement and kicking the can down the road. Highlights include the underfunded solid waste fund, the underfunded pension fund, increased debt principal and interest payments, more needed infrastructure improvements, demands for more police funding, new police HQ's and/or jail, Khan's inevitable request for stadium improvements and the lingering desire for a new convention center.
Then, Sheriff TK Waters endorses Curry 2.0, Daniel Davis, for mayor based on Davis' promise to hire more police, increase hiring incentives and salaries and, amazingly, maybe even reinstating the police pension fund, underfunded already by $2.6 billion. Davis, like so many past mayors, is buying his police endorsement at the expense of the taxpayers, which is why we have some of our largest budget problems. Davis doesn't explain how he will live up to these promises while dealing with all the budget issues highlighted by Monroe but borrowing more money is just mortgaging the City's future (see Lenny Curry's favorite ploy and why Davis is Curry 2.0) and will increase debt service costs due to higher leveraging by the City. The real solution is raising previously lowered property taxes but I don't expect Davis to come close to admitting to that.
QuoteDaniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff's endorsement
Jacksonville mayoral candidate Daniel Davis said he will work with Sheriff T.K. Waters to add more patrol officers as Davis accepted an endorsement by Waters in the mayor's race....
...."Sheriff, you've asked for more manpower," Davis told Waters during the endorsement announcement Tuesday. "You mark it down today – we will add more police officers to our streets."
Davis did not put a specific number on officers. He said Waters is "the expert" and as mayor, he would make sure the sheriff has the necessary resources for the Sheriff's Office, which is the single biggest portion of the city's budget
Davis also said he would seek to provide employment benefits that will help the Sheriff's Office recruit and retain officers....
....Davis did not rule out bringing back pensions as a retirement benefit. The city stopped providing pensions to all city employees hired after Oct. 1, 2017, and replaced that benefit with 401(k) style retirement accounts....
....At the urging of Mayor Lenny Curry, Duval County voters approved a half-cent sales tax in 2016 to help pay down the city's massive pension debt. The biggest portion of the financial obligation is in the Police and Fire Pension Fund....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/01/24/jacksonville-sheriff-endorses-daniel-davis-in-mayors-race/69836378007/?itm_medium=recirc&itm_source=taboola&itm_campaign=internal&itm_content=BelowArticleFeed-FeedRedesign
QuoteNate Monroe: Next Jacksonville mayor could feel squeeze with Jags stadium, jail relocation
COMMENTARY | The next Jacksonville mayor and City Council are on course to confront a pile of thorny financial problems that could box them into weighing painful decisions first-term elected officials are usually desperate to avoid: tax or fee increases, deep spending cuts, large borrowing that could harm the city's financial health, or simply scaling back their policy ambitions...
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/01/27/jags-stadium-downtown-are-big-knots-for-next-mayor-to-untangle/69847231007/
Davis is pragmatic, not an ideologue. He and Peyton are very close, so look at that hx to read the tea leaves.
^ As I recall, Peyton brown nosed the police and fire personnel to build his base and while mayor, rewarded them handsomely. Looks like Davis is on the same track. Not sure of timing, but I seem to recall Peyton also either refused to raise property taxes or actually lowered them. With either strategy, it dug the City's financial hole bigger. Of course, Peyton also blew $360 million dollars on the Courthouse that should have cost less than half if he followed the Fed's lead and built up instead of out. But, he wanted to appease the judges so, again, no backbone. Not impressed if Davis is a clone of Peyton or Curry or both. We need a new approach to leadership, not more of our past.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 29, 2023, 12:58:20 AM
Then, Sheriff TK Waters endorses Curry 2.0, Daniel Davis, for mayor based on Davis' promise to hire more police, increase hiring incentives and salaries and, amazingly, maybe even reinstating the police pension fund, underfunded already by $2.6 billion. Davis, like so many past mayors, is buying his police endorsement at the expense of the taxpayers, which is why we have some of our largest budget problems. Davis doesn't explain how he will live up to these promises while dealing with all the budget issues highlighted by Monroe but borrowing more money is just mortgaging the City's future (see Lenny Curry's favorite ploy and why Davis is Curry 2.0) and will increase debt service costs due to higher leveraging by the City. The real solution is raising previously lowered property taxes but I don't expect Davis to come close to admitting to that.
QuoteDaniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff's endorsement
Jacksonville mayoral candidate Daniel Davis said he will work with Sheriff T.K. Waters to add more patrol officers as Davis accepted an endorsement by Waters in the mayor's race....
...."Sheriff, you've asked for more manpower," Davis told Waters during the endorsement announcement Tuesday. "You mark it down today – we will add more police officers to our streets."
Davis did not put a specific number on officers. He said Waters is "the expert" and as mayor, he would make sure the sheriff has the necessary resources for the Sheriff's Office, which is the single biggest portion of the city's budget
Davis also said he would seek to provide employment benefits that will help the Sheriff's Office recruit and retain officers....
....Davis did not rule out bringing back pensions as a retirement benefit. The city stopped providing pensions to all city employees hired after Oct. 1, 2017, and replaced that benefit with 401(k) style retirement accounts....
....At the urging of Mayor Lenny Curry, Duval County voters approved a half-cent sales tax in 2016 to help pay down the city's massive pension debt. The biggest portion of the financial obligation is in the Police and Fire Pension Fund....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/01/24/jacksonville-sheriff-endorses-daniel-davis-in-mayors-race/69836378007/?itm_medium=recirc&itm_source=taboola&itm_campaign=internal&itm_content=BelowArticleFeed-FeedRedesign
I'm... incredibly confused how with a budget that has grown to more than half a billion dollars, JSO is somehow in need of even more money. We've already tried this strategy for 8 years and it clearly doesn't appear to have provided results. It seems long past time to put the money we could have spent on even more officers towards both paying down a bit more of the pension debt and investing in actual prevention before officers are actually needed to respond.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 29, 2023, 12:58:20 AM
Nate Monroe highlights the huge fiscal issues facing the City over the next 3 or 4 years thanks to Curry's mismanagement and kicking the can down the road. Highlights include the underfunded solid waste fund, the underfunded pension fund, increased debt principal and interest payments, more needed infrastructure improvements, demands for more police funding, new police HQ's and/or jail, Khan's inevitable request for stadium improvements and the lingering desire for a new convention center.
QuoteNate Monroe: Next Jacksonville mayor could feel squeeze with Jags stadium, jail relocation
COMMENTARY | The next Jacksonville mayor and City Council are on course to confront a pile of thorny financial problems that could box them into weighing painful decisions first-term elected officials are usually desperate to avoid: tax or fee increases, deep spending cuts, large borrowing that could harm the city's financial health, or simply scaling back their policy ambitions...
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/01/27/jags-stadium-downtown-are-big-knots-for-next-mayor-to-untangle/69847231007/
I imagine the true plan this whole time was that Curry was supposed to sell JEA to FPL or whoever, and yield $8 billion in cash with which to pay off the pension debt, buy the stadium, jail, and convention center, plus whatever other favors would have been needed to clear the path for Davis. With the JEA sale scuttled, all Curry could do was just smooth things over long enough for Davis to hopefully slip through.
I think ever since the idea of the Jail/Convention Center swap became clear last year, most of us here have been pretty dismayed about the concept. It's just such an easier thing to kick down the road compared to smaller investments with bigger impacts. I feel like a BJP-style sales tax plan (maybe separate referendums on infrastructure and transportation plans) and finally fixing the trash fee get us most of the way there from a revenue standpoint.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 30, 2023, 10:41:29 AM
I imagine the true plan this whole time was that Curry was supposed to sell JEA to FPL or whoever, and yield $8 billion in cash with which to pay off the pension debt, buy the stadium, jail, and convention center, plus whatever other favors would have been needed to clear the path for Davis. With the JEA sale scuttled, all Curry could do was just smooth things over long enough for Davis to hopefully slip through.
I think ever since the idea of the Jail/Convention Center swap became clear last year, most of us here have been pretty dismayed about the concept. It's just such an easier thing to kick down the road compared to smaller investments with bigger impacts. I feel like a BJP-style sales tax plan (maybe separate referendums on infrastructure and transportation plans) and finally fixing the trash fee get us most of the way there from a revenue standpoint.
Agree, Curry was going to hoc JEA so he could solve all the financial issues of his making while making it appear that he did much good for the City, albeit at taxpayer expense. The Pension Fund, Gas Tax, Renaissance and Better Jacksonville bond issues were variations on this same theme... spend a bundle of money today and let future taxpayers and mayors deal with the fallout.
Doing another sales tax funded bond may not be good for several reasons. I think the City has used its full 1 percent local sales tax option for the gas tax and BJP bonds and can't do more under State law. Also, sales tax is very regressive. And, not sure the City can do more bonding without endangering its credit rating raising its cost of borrowing (see Nate Monroe's full article). The best answer is raising property tax rates which have been lowered or held for the last 15 to 20 years keeping revenues too low. Property tax revenue has also been eroded by all the exemptions the State keeps adding.
I might add, the City has squandered much of its bond money on worthless or patronage projects and/or overpaying for same. Exhibit A: Giving JTA money for autonomous vehicles.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 30, 2023, 10:41:29 AM
I think ever since the idea of the Jail/Convention Center swap became clear last year, most of us here have been pretty dismayed about the concept. It's just such an easier thing to kick down the road compared to smaller investments with bigger impacts. I feel like a BJP-style sales tax plan (maybe separate referendums on infrastructure and transportation plans) and finally fixing the trash fee get us most of the way there from a revenue standpoint.
I haven't read Nate's column but if there is a desire to save money.......skip the idea of spending $400-$500 million on a new jail within the next four to eight years. That cash is better spent elsewhere.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 30, 2023, 12:53:28 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 30, 2023, 10:41:29 AM
I imagine the true plan this whole time was that Curry was supposed to sell JEA to FPL or whoever, and yield $8 billion in cash with which to pay off the pension debt, buy the stadium, jail, and convention center, plus whatever other favors would have been needed to clear the path for Davis. With the JEA sale scuttled, all Curry could do was just smooth things over long enough for Davis to hopefully slip through.
I think ever since the idea of the Jail/Convention Center swap became clear last year, most of us here have been pretty dismayed about the concept. It's just such an easier thing to kick down the road compared to smaller investments with bigger impacts. I feel like a BJP-style sales tax plan (maybe separate referendums on infrastructure and transportation plans) and finally fixing the trash fee get us most of the way there from a revenue standpoint.
Agree, Curry was going to hoc JEA so he could solve all the financial issues of his making while making it appear that he did much good for the City, albeit at taxpayer expense. The Pension Fund, Gas Tax, Renaissance and Better Jacksonville bond issues were variations on this same theme... spend a bundle of money today and let future taxpayers and mayors deal with the fallout.
Doing another sales tax funded bond may not be good for several reasons. I think the City has used its full 1 percent local sales tax option for the gas tax and BJP bonds and can't do more under State law. Also, sales tax is very regressive. And, not sure the City can do more bonding without endangering its credit rating raising its cost of borrowing (see Nate Monroe's full article). The best answer is raising property tax rates which have been lowered or held for the last 15 to 20 years keeping revenues too low. Property tax revenue has also been eroded by all the exemptions the State keeps adding.
I might add, the City has squandered much of its bond money on worthless or patronage projects and/or overpaying for same. Exhibit A: Giving JTA money for autonomous vehicles.
I get the sense that throwing a sales tax to a referendum is politically easier than getting Council to raise property taxes, but you make a fair point all the same. I was under the impression that having a revenue source to back the bonds would be sufficient to maintain the credit rating. Elections do have consequences when it comes to what public funds are spent on. Let the Gate son buy his way in and you get a half-billion dollar courthouse. Let the Chamber guy buy his way and you get a half-billion dollar prison. I wonder, could restoring the mobility fee be on the table too? I recall the last of those discussions being a while ago.
When it comes to JTA, I feel like it's not unreasonable to consider that the U2C funding could be redirected with a simple piece of legislation, unlike JTA's other sources. I don't think it's out of the question that some level-headed leadership with a practical approach to mass transit could call for a transportation plan based on those real needs. Because as has been said for a while, a quarter-billion dollars can actually get you a lot in terms of transit, it just depends on how you invest it.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 30, 2023, 12:07:59 AM
^ As I recall, Peyton brown nosed the police and fire personnel to build his base and while mayor, rewarded them handsomely. Looks like Davis is on the same track. Not sure of timing, but I seem to recall Peyton also either refused to raise property taxes or actually lowered them. With either strategy, it dug the City's financial hole bigger. Of course, Peyton also blew $360 million dollars on the Courthouse that should have cost less than half if he followed the Fed's lead and built up instead of out. But, he wanted to appease the judges so, again, no backbone. Not impressed if Davis is a clone of Peyton or Curry or both. We need a new approach to leadership, not more of our past.
Every candidate for every office wants police and fire's endorsement.
Peyton raised taxes (multiple times?) to address the city's budget crisis.
He implemented the only successful anti-crime program we've had in the last 30 years, the Jacksonville Journey.
Peyton prioritized improving our park system.
Plenty of criticisms, as well, but we could do A LOT worse than a Peyton-esque trajectory for our next mayor.
^ Points noted. But help me out... What were Peyton's tax increases exactly? What exactly did he do for parks? How did he manage the police and fire pension plan and budgets?
The Courthouse is a monument to wasteful spending and killing off a significant portion of Downtown for the rest of our lifetimes. That clearly falls on his shoulders.
I will grant you the Jacksonville Journey was a good deed. And, compared to Curry, Peyton looks saintly. But, compared to my expectations, he doesn't make the cut anymore than most of the other modern mayors.
Peyton DID prioritize parks for about a month. It was a well thought out plan and based on the uber successful Minneapolis model. Minneapolis is considered to have the best Parks and Rec system in the country, with every resident within 6 blocks or less of a park. However, city council opposition to losing control over their park patronage fiefdoms quickly surfaced, and Peyton dropped the idea like a hot potato.
Peyton did court the Police and Fire folks and got their full backing. As memory serves they were less than happy with the results they got. I specifically remember him getting booed at one of the 'Guns and Hoses' [police vs. firefighter] boxing event at the arena during his term.
As far as the courthouse, the original version (as rendered under the Delaney administration for the BJP) had just as big or bigger footprint. It was just a much grander building. It really is a shame that one didn't get built, but construction costs soared between the time it was approved and the time the construction was ready to start. I can't place the blame for that on Peyton too much, and I have never been a fan of him.
The Property tax increases Peyton did were not rolling back the millage to back out the increase in the annual valuation. Not doing so is concerned a tax increase, and Peyton himself called it that when his opponent Matt Carlucci had voted likewise as a member of council. Once elected, Peyton did the exact same thing he criticized Carlucci for doing, and multiple times too. I can't remember if it was twice or three times.
Peyton's predecessor, John Delaney, rollback the millage for the increased valuation and then some, every year for eight years, IIRC. Unfortunately for Peyton, Delaney had the fortune of a growing national economy the whole time. Almost as soon as Peyton took office, the economy turned south in a big way, which put Peyton in a lurch. He ended up adding some new fees to the water bills while in office.
^ All noted and "thanks for the memories." 8)
Based on my recall, I have to at least take exception on the Courthouse. There were still multiple options to choose from including going vertical and Peyton made the choice to build what we have. Just because there were even worse options doesn't excuse not picking the best. The Feds, only a few years earlier, built a building at least half the size and to the highest security standards for $80 million. Given it was a recession at the time, I don't recall huge inflation in construction costs. If it was over budget, the City did a poor job of estimating a realistic cost and/or added on a lot of change orders and upgrades (to appease spoiled judges, which I recall happened).
The above is a pattern for City projects. They all seem to run way over estimates sold to taxpayers when seeking approval. This includes the stadium and Osborn convention center among many. Let's face it, the City is a terrible manager of real estate, development and construction, bar none.
Based on Monroe's column below, the City has unfunded pension debts totaling about $4 billion. That's about $4,000 for every man, woman and child in Duval County and it is still growing. Thank you, Mayor Curry and City Council! And, that doesn't include deferred funding for the solid waste fund or a backlog of infrastructure needs/wants.
Monroe calls out the ploy of candidates to court police and fire fighters with support for their pension benefits. I support paying market benefits, not more, for them but, that said, if the City takes on the obligation, we need to fund it concurrently, not roll up years of underfunding and kick the can down the road for decades at a high financing cost. That is just fiscal irresponsibility. I see Curry 2.0, Daniel Davis, taking Curry's lead with his recent quotes.
QuoteNate Monroe: Jacksonville police and fire pension debt explodes to $2.6 billion
COMMENTARY | Jacksonville City Hall's debt to the Police and Fire Pension Fund climbed to its highest-ever level for the fifth straight year, topping $2.6 billion in October 2022, according to a draft analysis of the fund's financial health, a potential ticking time bomb for a new mayor and City Council that will confront a raft of thorny financial problems when they take office this summer.
The pension debt — called the unfunded liability — jumped by more than $280 million over the course of a single year, owed in part to poor investment returns, and will require the city to pay $171 million in the next budget, which will be the new mayor and council's first. The fund is now less than 46 percent funded, which means it only has enough money to cover less than 46 percent of the financial obligations it has to police and fire retirees and employees.
The report projects that ratio will drop to 40 percent by 2030. That would be the second-worst financial performance the fund will have had in the prior three decades.
In 2015, the year Mayor Lenny Curry took office, the unfunded liability was about $1.8 billion.
The degrading health of the fund is also, in a sense, a matter of intentional design. Curry convinced voters in 2016 to pass a complex series of changes to the way the city pays and calculates its pension debt. Taken together, the changes are akin to refinancing credit card debt: instead of paying off the debt quickly, it will spread the cost out through 2060, a delay that will, much like credit card debt, cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars extra on the back end. The idea was to free up money in the short term — without these changes, the city would have to pay about $80 million more on top of the $171 million next year — but at a significant and far higher long term cost.
That essentially wiped out a previous reform plan enacted by former Mayor Alvin Brown that was based on a theory endorsed by most pension experts: pay off the unfunded liability quickly. It also required quirky rewrites to state law that allow Jacksonville to use accounting tricks to calculate its annual pension payments.
The second prong of Curry's plan was to take an existing half-cent sales tax — the half-penny that has been paying off debt related to the Better Jacksonville Plan, the massive building campaign initiated by former Mayor John Delaney — and repurpose it to begin paying off the city's pension debt in 2031. Until then, the city is essentially under-paying into the pension fund, a plan that can theoretically work as long as future sales tax revenue continues growing.
City officials knew this new plan would cause the already troubled Police and Fire Pension Fund's financial health to deteriorate, but the short-term "savings" in the form of lower city payments have propped up Curry's administration, which has been able to engineer large infrastructure budgets in recent years.
Still, the faltering fund is requiring ever-larger payments from the city that even Curry's changes can't fully stem. The $171 million due next year is the highest minimum contribution the city has ever been required to make. That amount could go up or down some as the draft report is finalized, though it typically changes little.
This was a massive gamble with consequences that will fall on future mayors and taxpayers if Curry's plan flops.
Although the plan creates breathing room in the city's general fund, the portion of the budget paid for with property taxes that pays for quality-of-life services, Curry's "solution" is not free: a generation of taxpayers who had nothing to do with the exploding pension debt will be paying it off for decades to come — and paying a premium so city officials today can reap the benefit. It has also taken a half-penny tax off the table that could have instead been used for future infrastructure needs, of which the city has plenty.
The third leg of Curry's plan ended pensions for all city employees, including police and firefighters, and replaced it with an expensive 401(k)-style retirement plan, something Curry used as a major selling point when pushing his plan on voters. But public-safety officials have long believed turning the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office and Jacksonville Fire and Rescue into some of the only departments in the country without pensions would ultimately create a recruitment and retention problem — something, a few years in, some of them believe they are now beginning to see.
This is a topic on the minds of mayoral candidates. In an interview with my colleague, David Bauerlein, earlier this week, JAX Chamber president and candidate Daniel Davis wouldn't rule out bringing back pensions to help recruit police candidates.
"All the options are on the table, in my opinion, to make sure that we have the best and brightest serving our citizens," Davis said. "I want to make sure that if my family is in trouble or anybody else's family is in trouble that we have the absolute best here – not that they are being trained here and they go somewhere else because the benefits are better somewhere else, but that we have the absolute best here in Jacksonville."
Placing city employees, or even a portion of employees, like public safety workers, into a new pension plan or rolling them into the Florida Retirement System would have its own set of complications. But the option might be politically appealing to candidates trying to court police officers and firefighters, who grudgingly backed Curry's plan in 2016, some with the notion they'd get a second bite at the apple with a new mayor.
Although it's the largest and poorest funded, the police and fire pension fund is not the city's only large retirement obligation. The unfunded liability in the general employees pension plan was projected to be about $1.37 billion this year, although it's generally in better overall financial health.
https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php?action=post;topic=36694.210;last_msg=521775
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 31, 2023, 10:06:09 PM
^ All noted and "thanks for the memories." 8)
Based on my recall, I have to at least take exception on the Courthouse. There were still multiple options to choose from including going vertical and Peyton made the choice to build what we have. Just because there were even worse options doesn't excuse not picking the best. The Feds, only a few years earlier, built a building at least half the size and to the highest security standards for $80 million. Given it was a recession at the time, I don't recall huge inflation in construction costs. If it was over budget, the City did a poor job of estimating a realistic cost and/or added on a lot of change orders and upgrades (to appease spoiled judges, which I recall happened).
The above is a pattern for City projects. They all seem to run way over estimates sold to taxpayers when seeking approval. This includes the stadium and Osborn convention center among many. Let's face it, the City is a terrible manager of real estate, development and construction, bar none.
As far as the courthouse there was a design competition. Four or five firms submitted plans for it, and from those entries a winner was chosen. Between the time of BJP approval (in 2000), and 2006 or 2007 when the they were ready to go vertical, there had indeed been a substantial amount of construction inflation. Peyton scrapped the 'chosen' design for what he see today. There may have been other design options at that time, but if there were they were NOT made public. Because they were started pretty soon after BJP approval, the Arena and ballpark DID come in on budget. Ideally, COJ should have been designing/building the courthouse in tandem with those projects and thus before the considerable inflation of the mid-2000's. The economy was humming and that drove up construction prices.
As far as going more vertical, to shrink the footprint, that would not have resulted in monetary savings, as the higher you go, the higher the construction costs. The city already owed the land, and as I said, it was a big footprint from the start.
Quote from: vicupstate on February 01, 2023, 09:11:15 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on January 31, 2023, 10:06:09 PM
^ All noted and "thanks for the memories." 8)
Based on my recall, I have to at least take exception on the Courthouse. There were still multiple options to choose from including going vertical and Peyton made the choice to build what we have. Just because there were even worse options doesn't excuse not picking the best. The Feds, only a few years earlier, built a building at least half the size and to the highest security standards for $80 million. Given it was a recession at the time, I don't recall huge inflation in construction costs. If it was over budget, the City did a poor job of estimating a realistic cost and/or added on a lot of change orders and upgrades (to appease spoiled judges, which I recall happened).
The above is a pattern for City projects. They all seem to run way over estimates sold to taxpayers when seeking approval. This includes the stadium and Osborn convention center among many. Let's face it, the City is a terrible manager of real estate, development and construction, bar none.
As far as the courthouse there was a design competition. Four or five firms submitted plans for it, and from those entries a winner was chosen. Between the time of BJP approval (in 2000), and 2006 or 2007 when the they were ready to go vertical, there had indeed been a substantial amount of construction inflation. Peyton scrapped the 'chosen' design for what he see today. There may have been other design options at that time, but if there were they were NOT made public. Because they were started pretty soon after BJP approval, the Arena and ballpark DID come in on budget. Ideally, COJ should have been designing/building the courthouse in tandem with those projects and thus before the considerable inflation of the mid-2000's. The economy was humming and that drove up construction prices.
As far as going more vertical, to shrink the footprint, that would not have resulted in monetary savings, as the higher you go, the higher the construction costs. The city already owed the land, and as I said, it was a big footprint from the start.
I think you can debate the courthouse either way. Construction costs increases definitely were not his fault. Additionally, one giant oversight was that the original design picked (from Cannon Designs) as well as what we had today sat squarely on Clay Street, which to no one's knowledge on the committee was AT&T's central trunk line street downtown, requiring the city to spend Millions to close the Right of Way since AT&T had to move a ton of wires.
That said, he took forever on this. It reminded me of a deer in the headlights - if the deer went almost any direction it would be better than doing nothing, which he did for a long time.
Let's do some math...
Per Wikipedia articles below: The Feds built their 492,000 sf building for $84 million or $170/sf in 2002. Duval County built its 800,000 sf courthouse for $350 million (or more as I recall) at $437.50/sf in 2008. That is a 157% increase in construction costs in less than 10 years during overall low inflation. Plus, the larger building should yield a lower cost per sf due to efficiencies of construction overhead. Thus, no way this amount of increase makes sense to me.
And, if Duval built on one block vertically, they wouldn't have had to close so many streets and kill multiple city blocks that the City could have developed/sold off for millions in revenue while improving Downtown vitality.
Per below, Peyton essentially rebooted the design process so he had the opportunity to totally change direction in my opinion. It would have been cheaper to write off the infrastructure dollars already spent rather than spending "a dollar to save a dime" by pushing forward with the multiblock design. And, with a courthouse, I am not sure that vertical automatically cost more or much more vs. horizontal due to what has to be higher security costs for a horizontal building 2 blocks long plus another block of valuable real estate and closing off/relocating two streets (Messing with Monroe after the City designated it just a few years earlier as the main I-95 gateway to Downtown just adds to the insanity of the Courthouse design.)
QuoteThe courthouse was completed in late 2002 at a cost of $84 million and opened in early 2003. It replaced the old former courthouse, which was built in 1933 and had many indoor air quality problems, including illness-inducing mold and mildew.[4]
The new courthouse comprises 492,000 square feet (45,700 m2) over 14 floors, with a secure parking facility in the basement. It was named after John Milton Bryan Simpson, a federal judge who served in several positions in Florida, after passage of an act of Congress introduced by then U.S. Senator Bill Nelson. The courthouse was officially dedicated on August 11, 2008.[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Simpson_United_States_Courthouse
Quote....The 2000 Census counted over three-quarters of a million people in Duval County, an increase of 67% since the prior courthouse opened. The Bay Street facility had been overcrowded for many years and additional space was desperately needed. State law required the local government to construct a new facility. Mayor John Delaney proposed the Better Jacksonville Plan, a $2.25 billion package of projects, including a new courthouse.[3] The referendum on the Better Jacksonville Plan passed on September 5, 2000, and planning for the courthouse commenced. Costs were estimated at $190 million, with another $20 million built into the budget for contingency. Construction was awarded to Cannon Design.
In 2003 Delaney left office and was succeeded by John Peyton. Construction continued under Cannon, but budget and size estimates fluctuated. Peyton stopped work on the courthouse complex on October 28, 2004, and fired Cannon and construction managers Skanska Dynamic Partners.[4] At the time, the project had not broken ground, but project design, property acquisition, site work and utility relocation had been completed, at a cost of $64.3 million. Peyton's office cited rising construction costs as part of the reason for the budget deficit.[5]
Peyton decided to throw out Cannon's original designs, including completed work, and proposed a new plan. The Jacksonville City Council approved increasing the courthouse budget to $263.5 million in 2006. The project was re-bid, and the team of Perry-McCall Construction and The Auchter Company were initially awarded the contract. When it was discovered that the Auchter Company had financial troubles, the contract was withdrawn. In an attempt to retain the contract, Perry-McCall and Auchter merged to form a new company, but Jacksonville's General Counsel rejected their plan because the new company had not bid on the project.[6]
Second place bidder, Turner Construction Company, which partnered with Technical Construction Services Group and KBJ Architects, was given an opportunity to negotiate a contract with the city in July 2007, by approval of the Competitive Sealed Proposal Evaluation Committee.[6] On November 16, 2007, the Courthouse Architectural Review Committee (CARC) convened to review the new options under consideration by the administration and voted 4-1 to pursue the mayor's recommendation to build one 800,000 square foot facility on the existing LaVilla site using the design from KBJ Architects. Turner Construction was chosen as contractor. Turner Construction is also the company that built VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville.
Based on that recommendation and after intensive study, the Jacksonville City Council approved a $350 million county courthouse complex in April, 2008 that was supported by Mayor Peyton and Chief Circuit Judge Donald Moran. The council also agreed that any proceeds from the sale of the current riverfront courthouse and the City Hall annex be used to pay for the increased costs of the new courthouse construction.[7][8]
Financial history of the new courthouse
Original 2000 BJP budget $190,000,000
"vertical contingency" $ 21,000,000 added by John Delaney
Total BJP funding $211,000,000
** New Funding **
Court Facilities Trust Fund: $ 811,000
Court Documents Facility: $ 3,397,000
Traffic Fine Surcharge: $ 48,292,000
2nd Approved Budget: $263,500,000 (2004-1339)
** AdditionalFunding **
COJ Capital Projects: $ 86,500,000
TOTAL BUDGET APPROVED^: $350,000,000 (2008-1111)
^$64.3 million already spent to-date for land acquisition, utility relocation and previous design efforts [9]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duval_County_Courthouse
QuoteJacksonville City Council president gets request to investigate mayoral candidate Cumber
City Council member Nick Howland wants City Council to investigate the involvement of council member LeAnna Cumber's husband in the attempted sale of JEA and also look into the "omission of this information" in a disclosure statement she gave City Council.
City Council President Terrance Freeman did not immediately respond to Howland's request for an investigation of Cumber, who is running for mayor.
Cumber's husband, Husein, assisted a private equity firm when it pulled together a consortium of companies called JEA Public Power Partners that offered to pay a multibillion dollar concession fee for the right to manage JEA, a form of privatization that would have kept JEA under the city's ownership.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/01/31/jacksonville-city-council-asked-to-investigate-mayor-candidate/69857547007/
Quote from: thelakelander on February 01, 2023, 04:53:01 PM
QuoteJacksonville City Council president gets request to investigate mayoral candidate Cumber
City Council member Nick Howland wants City Council to investigate the involvement of council member LeAnna Cumber's husband in the attempted sale of JEA and also look into the "omission of this information" in a disclosure statement she gave City Council.
City Council President Terrance Freeman did not immediately respond to Howland's request for an investigation of Cumber, who is running for mayor.
Cumber's husband, Husein, assisted a private equity firm when it pulled together a consortium of companies called JEA Public Power Partners that offered to pay a multibillion dollar concession fee for the right to manage JEA, a form of privatization that would have kept JEA under the city's ownership.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/01/31/jacksonville-city-council-asked-to-investigate-mayor-candidate/69857547007/
There is more to this move than meets the eye. First, Howland is supporting Daniel Davis and they both share Tim Baker as their campaign manager who plays nasty above and beyond in managing campaigns. Second, according to the Cumber team, including the prior City General Council who is supporting Cumber, the Council doesn't have standing to investigate family members now nor did it have the power then to compel members to make disclosures on this subject or hold them accountable. Disclosure was entirely voluntary. Further, Cumber's team says the husband received no compensation for his advice and was cooperating with the FBI's investigation at the time. Cumber claims there was both public and private concern about compromising the FBI's efforts by disclosing too much before the Council. Not saying she handled it the best way but this is much ado about nothing and is driven by Cumber's attacks on Davis re: his role in privatizing JEA.
Like everything in politics, there is always more to the story than meets the eye.
Meanwhile, Donna Deegan and others are enjoying watching Cumber and Davis attacking each other relentlessly and spending lots of their dollars to do so ;D.
So what is the story on Deegan? I know she was a TV anchor or reporter but that is about it. Has she got the chops to be Mayor?
Quote from: vicupstate on February 01, 2023, 06:15:22 PM
So what is the story on Deegan? I know she was a TV anchor or reporter but that is about it. Has she got the chops to be Mayor?
Deegan was a reporter and anchor locally for many years and covered City Hall for much of that. She also has created and overseen the "Donna Race for the Cure" with thousands of runners from around the country for many years. Between those things, she has much knowledge about the community and organizing along with name recognition that, for now, far exceeds that of all the other mayoral candidates. Cumber and Davis will be spending millions of their campaign dollars just to ramp up their name to a level approaching hers.
Additionally, Deegan ran a very good campaign for Congress against incumbent John Rutherford in a very red district and managed to pull about 40%, as I recall, far exceeding expectations. She clobbered Rutherford in her televised debate with him and comes across, based on my observations of her presentations, as having an excellent grasp of local issues, a dynamic vision and the ability to clearly articulate her positions while connecting with the electorate (likely honed by her on-air career). In this campaign, I see much more "positive" energy from her so far and have heard she has a robust ground game. She should have much appeal to younger people, women, the disenfranchised and moderates of both parties looking for a new day in Jacksonville. Davis, perceived as Curry 2.0 by many in the know, and Cumber's embrace of the far right may also push many voters toward a more reasonable Deegan.
She doesn't carry the political baggage of other candidates who have been in City government but has one personal issue that, if she makes the runoff, will likely be brought up by the likes of Tim Baker. That is her separation from her sports anchor husband and subsequent marriage to the weatherman. While this may be titillating for some gossipers, it doesn't mean much to me with respect to running City government. My guess is most all the candidates have some personal issue in their history and it just comes down to who has the money to blow up such issues.
If Cumber and Davis keep pounding on each other and split their base, I think Deegan has a very good chance of being in the runoff. If so, I then expect the race to be about who can convince us that they can best move us into a better future than our past.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 01, 2023, 07:07:44 PM
If Cumber and Davis keep pounding on each other and split their base, I think Deegan has a very good chance of being in the runoff. If so, I then expect the race to be about who can convince us that they can best move us into a better future than our past.
Spoiler: she'll make the run off, easily. In fact, she'll get the most votes of any candidate in March. Considering she has no real primary opponent, it'd be political malpractice not to.
March will be something like:
Deegan 28%
Davis 22%
Cumber 18%
Gibson 12%
Ferraro 10%
Etc
Then the R v D campaign ensues, and the R becomes the favorite.
Quote from: fsu813 on February 01, 2023, 09:41:39 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 01, 2023, 07:07:44 PM
If Cumber and Davis keep pounding on each other and split their base, I think Deegan has a very good chance of being in the runoff. If so, I then expect the race to be about who can convince us that they can best move us into a better future than our past.
Spoiler: she'll make the run off, easily. In fact, she'll get the most votes of any candidate in March. Considering she has no real primary opponent, it'd be political malpractice not to.
March will be something like:
Deegan 28%
Davis 22%
Cumber 18%
Gibson 12%
Ferraro 10%
Etc
Then the R v D campaign ensues, and the R becomes the favorite.
I think Deegan may have a better chance against Davis than Cumber if it comes down to your scenario. Cumber will be harder to pin down with our past history vs. Davis, who can be painted as an extension of unpopular Curry. Cumber is painting herself as an "anti-establishment" outsider even though she spent a good bit of her time on Council in Curry's camp before splitting off, a convenient turn if she expected Davis to be her main competition. Also, Cumber could siphon off some of Deegan's votes from women. A large vulnerability for her is how much out-of-town money she has raised from the world of Trump. I don't know if self-described "conservative" Davis will be able to make that a huge issue in the primary but Deegan could in a runoff.
I am not sure Cumber can't top Davis. He has more money but he seems to have a severe identity problem with the general public. Cumber has grabbed more big headlines in the last 2 years than he has and staked out some firm positions. Davis seems to have trouble outlining what he stands for. I think sometimes he just comes across more as a vapid "pretty boy" than a person of substance. I wonder also how comfortable he is with Baker's divisive "burn down the city" style of campaigning which is sure to turn off some moderate establishment types that want the City to be more unified.
Will also be interesting to see if DeSantis jumps in on the runoff. At a minimum, that could polarize the election beyond normal. If DeSantis jumps in on the primary, I wonder who he would get behind and if it would have much impact, one way or the other.
No matter what, in a runoff, it will be imperative for Deegan to find a way to juice turnout by Democrats to offset the inevitable auto votes for an "R" in this town. This will also be a good test of just how purple to blue Duval might becoming.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 01, 2023, 10:31:32 PM
He has more money but he seems to have a severe identity problem with the general public. Cumber has grabbed more big headlines in the last 2 years than he has and staked out some firm positions. Davis seems to have trouble outlining what he stands for. I think sometimes he just comes across more as a vapid "pretty boy" than a person of substance. I wonder also how comfortable he is with Baker's divisive "burn down the city" style of campaigning which is sure to turn off some moderate establishment types that want the City to be more unified.
Remember the stage of the election, the defacto primary. Appealing to reliable R voters is the goal here, not a broad message appealing to all. Once the intraparty war is over in round 1, the messaging should change quite a bit.
At least that's what appears to be happening at this point.
One thing I don't understand is why Davis thinks it's a good strategy to make an issue of JEA. He had his own involvement and has surrounded himself with the people behind the sale. Why make that more of an issue that it already was going to be? Does he think people will really buy that his hands are clean on this? Does he just think he can weather the backlash if he can get past Cumber?
Quote from: Tacachale on February 07, 2023, 12:18:29 AM
One thing I don't understand is why Davis thinks it's a good strategy to make an issue of JEA. He had his own involvement and has surrounded himself with the people behind the sale. Why make that more of an issue that it already was going to be? Does he think people will really buy that his hands are clean on this? Does he just think he can weather the backlash if he can get past Cumber?
His hands aren't clean, but if the perception is that Cumber's isn't involved with the deal, then he might very well lose to her. By making sure she looks dirty too, he removes it a a reason to vote for her over him, and at this point that is all he cares about. One Republican and one Democrat will make the runoff. He wants to be sure that Republican is him. Having an R after his name will likely win him the General.
^ There was a townhall forum yesterday. All the major candidates were there except Davis. This is not the first forum I understand he has skipped. I wonder if he thinks he can run a "Wizard of Oz" campaign: Hide behind a curtain and just let Tim Baker's nasty attack and non-issue addressing ads and flyers speak for him.
City Council events Today?.......
Davis' apparent sense of entitlement and dirty politicking are repulsive, and I'm usually R-leaning.
So I'm curious on the opinions here...
The consensus seems to be Deegan will easily lock up a runoff spot but doesn't have a shot to win outright in March. So for a voter who is in the "anyone but Davis" camp, is the strategic vote for Cumber to hope for a Cumber-Deegan runoff? I fear Cumber and Davis are both in Khan's pocket, but Cumber at least hates the U2C. Deegan is by far the most articulate speaker and has an impressive platform, but no legislative record to speak truth to her positions.
Personally I'd like to see a Deegan-Ferraro runoff, but oh well. At the local level, I have no party loyalty, and would happily vote for Deegan over Davis if it came to that.
Down-ticket, I'm generally anti-incumbent, regardless of party.
^ If you want to see a Deegan-Ferraro run-off, vote for Ferraro.
^It seems like he is a distant third in the R field, no?
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 08, 2023, 09:32:53 PM
^It seems like he is a distant third in the R field, no?
And, if you believe the Davis-PAC ads, Ferraro is a Tax-And-Spend-Librulllll
For the first time in decades....... I am inclined to not vote. Skip It. Joining so many other folks that could vote, but don't.
Pretty much disengaging with Jacksonville.
The Davis campaign suing over a misleading political ad is practicing the ultimate hypocrisy.
He hired Tim Baker to run his campaign and this is the same type of nasty MO that Baker has used in campaigns he has managed. You only have to go back to Nick Howland's recent campaign that he managed in which he took out of context a debate quote by Tracy Paulson that implied she was for defunding the police when she was actually saying just the opposite. Although totally inaccurate and unfair, all the TV stations ran it and it likely assured she lost the election.
Davis knew going in what type of down-and-dirty campaign he was signing up for so he shouldn't complain when the tables are turned. As they say, when you sleep with dogs, you get fleas.
QuoteDaniel Davis sues TV stations, calling 'Dirty Daniel' ad defamatory
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/02/09/davis-sues-tv.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=me&utm_content=JA&ana=e_JA_me&j=30501802&senddate=2023-02-09
Here's the complaint.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23601845-daniel-davis-complaint-for-damages
The Introduction to the legal filing. Any lawyers lurking about that would care to opine on the complaint (the whole thing, not just this part).
Quote
INTRODUCTION
1. Defendants are a collection of Jacksonville Area broadcast television stations [all the local TV stations] who knowingly and maliciously continue to broadcast a disgusting, false and defamatory hit piece targeted to damage Plaintiff Daniel Davis and his campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville.
2. The hit piece was produced and paid for by Jax First, a dark money group created to funnel special interest dollars in favor of the election of Leanne Gutierrez Cumber as Mayor of Jacksonville. However, unlike candidates for office, independent political organizations like "Jax First" do not have a "right to command the use of broadcast facilities.'' See CBS v. DNC , 412 U.S. 94, 113 (1973). The decision to air Jax First's hit piece against Mr. Davis was solely for purposes of enriching Defendants at the expense of the truth and robust electoral debate.
3. Defendants did not need to broadcast Jax First's defamation. Because they did so (and continue to do so), they each bear responsibility for its content. See Felix v. Westinghouse Radio Stations, 186 F.2d 1, 6 (3rd Cir.), cert. denied, 314 U.S. 909 (1950). In fact, Defendants had a duty ''to protect the public from false, misleading or deceptive advertising." Universal Communications of Pittsburgh, Inc. Radio Station Waro Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 74 F.C.C.2d 617, 623 (1969) ("Commission has always held that a licensee's duty to protect the public from false, misleading or deceptive advertising is an important ingredient of his operation in the public interest."). Defendants' failure to prevent the airing of "false and misleading advertising" may be ''probative of an underlying abdication of licensee responsibility" that can be cause for the loss of a station's license. Cosmopolitan Broad. Corp. v. FCC, 581 F.2d 917, 927 (D.C. Cir. 1978).
4. To make matters worse, Defendants were each placed on notice by Mr. Davis's counsel that the hit piece was made up out of whole cloth. Defendants knew the statements in the ad were false but chose to broadcast it because they got paid to ignore the truth.
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on February 08, 2023, 10:17:55 PM
For the first time in decades....... I am inclined to not vote. Skip It. Joining so many other folks that could vote, but don't.
Pretty much disengaging with Jacksonville.
Although I 100% agree with you, I cant just skip it. I have leaned R all my life, but have voted D a couple of times. This seems to be another time. So Deegan doesn't have a record, except that unfortunate way of how she met her husband. I am inclined to think that would be a breath of fresh air, and possibly she could do some good. I dunno, I am honestly just exhausted at the whole fiasco right now. And one thing Donna does have going for her, is she had zero involvement in JEA.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 08, 2023, 08:54:40 PM
So I'm curious on the opinions here...
The consensus seems to be Deegan will easily lock up a runoff spot but doesn't have a shot to win outright in March.
I'm not sure that is the case. Assuming Donna makes the runoff, Audrey Gibson will endorse her. I also think there is a decent chance that Cumber (assuming she loses to Davis) does as well.
I definitely think Donna has a chance. I have not talked to anybody in town that views Davis as anything more than a generic Jacksonville Republican smiling in his Brooks Brothers outfit. He is just an extension of Curry and the machine. Donna did much better against Rutherford than almost anyone else could have. She will make it interesting.
^ If people get a chance to watch Deegan debate her opponents, I think they will be very impressed with her. The question is will they watch... unfortunately, this is too often why some better candidates can't win over negative and inaccurate ads. Voters, not the candidates, are really the main problem.
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on February 08, 2023, 10:17:55 PM
For the first time in decades....... I am inclined to not vote. Skip It. Joining so many other folks that could vote, but don't.
Pretty much disengaging with Jacksonville.
Not voting is a cop out, to me. You may not like any of the candidates but you need to vote for the best of the lot. Someone is going to win the job so you might as well exercise your right to help pick the best of the lot to win. Allowing the worst of the lot to win because you didn't vote otherwise is how we got some of the terrible and/or extreme elected officials at all levels of government we see today. I will always vote for this reason.
To add, if you don't like your choices, try running for office yourself ;D. Or, encouraging a fellow citizen that is better to do so with your volunteer and/or financial support.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 09, 2023, 11:39:32 AM
The Davis campaign suing over a misleading political ad is practicing the ultimate hypocrisy.
He hired Tim Baker to run his campaign and this is the same type of nasty MO that Baker has used in campaigns he has managed. You only have to go back to Nick Howland's recent campaign that he managed in which he took out of context a debate quote by Tracy Paulson that implied she was for defunding the police when she was actually saying just the opposite. Although totally inaccurate and unfair, all the TV stations ran it and it likely assured she lost the election.
Davis knew going in what type of down-and-dirty campaign he was signing up for so he shouldn't complain when the tables are turned. As they say, when you sleep with dogs, you get fleas.
QuoteDaniel Davis sues TV stations, calling 'Dirty Daniel' ad defamatory
https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/02/09/davis-sues-tv.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=me&utm_content=JA&ana=e_JA_me&j=30501802&senddate=2023-02-09
An out of context qoute was used?!? In a political TV commercial?!?
Gasp! Only Tim Baker could do such a thing!!!
LOL.
I believe each one of Cumber's attack ads has an out of context qoute/action being used against Davis.
Also, for the record, using out of context material for poltiical purposes has been standard procedure since, what, Athens, Greece?
QuoteNot voting is a cop out, to me. You may not like any of the candidates but you need to vote for the best of the lot. Someone is going to win the job so you might as well exercise your right to help pick the best of the lot to win. Allowing the worst of the lot to win because you didn't vote otherwise is how we got some of the terrible and/or extreme elected officials at all levels of government we see today. I will always vote for this reason.
To add, if you don't like your choices, try running for office yourself ;D. Or, encouraging a fellow citizen that is better to do so with your volunteer and/or financial support.
A better solution than not voting or voting for the least reprehensible...is to simply write someone in... the past two presidential elections I voted for my wife... 8)
Wow, this group consists of Chamber type members so going for Cumber is a real sign of weakness for Davis. Davis is looking very vulnerable. Not surprised they didn't support Deegan. It's a business Republican membership, no doubt, so Dems would never get an endorsement, even if they could walk on water.
QuoteFirst Coast Manufacturers Association endorses LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber for Jax Mayor
FCMA said Cumber's endorsement was based on her knowledge of city policies and issues.
LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber is landing a key endorsement from The First Coast Manufacturers Association (FCMA).
The endorsement, for Cumbers bid for Jacksonville Mayor, comes after the FCMA Government Relations Committee conducted candidate interviews. After weighing each response, they determined Cumber's vision provided the best path forward for maximizing tax dollars and benefitting the manufacturing industry.
In a press release announcing the endorsement, FCMA said Cumber's endorsement was based on her knowledge of city policies and issues, including that the manufacturing industry contributes about 15% of Jacksonville's GDP annually.
The group also praised Cumber for efforts as a City Council member to block a six-cent local fuel tax.
The industry is susceptible to increases in fuel costs, and increases would make manufacturing in Jacksonville more expensive than other areas in Florida and the U.S., which hampers competition, the group said....
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/587369-first-coast-manufacturers-association-endorses-leanna-gutierrez-cumber-for-jax-mayor/
And, following the money...
QuoteJax mayoral candidate Daniel Davis spends more than $1.1M in January
Republican fundraising leader retains $3M for stretch run for March 'First Election.'
The leading fundraiser in the race for Jacksonville Mayor recorded a seven-figure spend last month.
Republican Daniel Davis, the CEO of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, spent more than $96,000 in hard money in January, with an additional $1 million spent by his Building a Better Economy political committee.
Davis spent more from his political committee last month than in all months since its formation back in 2013, when he was still in the Legislature. The bulk of committee spending in January went to Flexpoint Media, which collected roughly $825,000 from the account last month. Data Targeting also did well, receiving roughly $185,000 of the committee spend.
Though the committee spent more than a million dollars, $124,000 in January fundraising defrayed some of those expenditures. Among the donors last month were MDB4L Investment, Black Knight, Keystone Properties, and Fidelity National Financial.
All told, the Davis committee exited January with more than $2.6 million on hand, as well as nearly $400,000 in his campaign account, despite spending more than he raised in hard money last month also, with more than $96,000 in outflow versus more than $41,000 raised. Among the significant spending: nearly $44,000 to Merus Strategies of Sanford, for yard signs.
Davis has dominated fundraising throughout not just his formal campaign but his extended pre-candidacy ahead of his launch last September, and only one candidate is competitive.
Republican LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber has yet to report committee fundraising and spending for January, but through December, the last month for which we currently have records, her JAX First committee had roughly $2.5 million on hand. Just as Davis spent heavily in January, City Council member Cumber's operation was also active, and we await a revised figure encompassing last month's committee spend.
Cumber has reported hard money fundraising and spending for January, and she had roughly $304,000 in her campaign account at the month's end, with over $97,000 spent and nearly $49,000 raised through Jan. 31. Over $70,000 of the January hard money total spend went to FP1 Strategies.
With vote by mail already beginning for the March 21 election, spending likely will outpace fundraising for all filed candidates. But the battle between establishment Republicans Cumber and Davis has dominated the airwaves, with each trying to claim the "conservative" vote, even as City Councilman Al Ferraro continues to run his own grassroots campaign. As of the end of January, he had roughly $250,000 on hand between his campaign account and his political committee.
Democrats Donna Deegan and Audrey Gibson are also running. Gibson closed January with roughly $180,000 left between her campaign account and her A Rising Tide political committee. Deegan closed January with roughly $300,000 in hard money, while January totals for her Donna for Duval political committee are still pending. She ended 2022 with more than $350,000 in that account.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/586977-jax-mayoral-candidate-daniel-davis-spends-more-than-1-1m-in-january/
QuoteQuote
Among the significant spending: nearly $44,000 to Merus Strategies of Sanford, for yard signs.
Great job as head of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce - buying yard signs out of town. [/sarcasm]
No more Political Candidate Yard signs at my residence.
The next sign will be " For Sale".
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on February 11, 2023, 07:24:34 PM
No more Political Candidate Yard signs at my residence.
The next sign will be " For Sale".
Bye
St. Pete Polls, that accurately predicted Curry's victory, has some very interesting results. Deegan leads by far among all candidates and crushes Cumber or Davis in a runoff scenario. Ferraro is polling well ahead of Cumber too. Hoping Deegan hangs on for victory and blows up the Curry-Baker political machine.
Aside from leading by double digits in the polls, she is gaining endorsements and consolidating support... while Davis and Cumber annihilate each other. Not surprised by Ferraro's showing based on what I have observed from "people on the street." I think he siphons off much of the Trump crowd but not much more.
The election will be interesting.
QuoteDo you plan to vote in the March election for Jacksonville Mayor?
Yes: 96.5%
Unsure: 3.5%
If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Omega Allen, LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber, Daniel Davis, Donna Deegan,
Al Ferraro, Audrey Gibson and Frank Keasler who would you vote for?
Omega Allen: 2.4%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber: 4.1%
Daniel Davis: 17.5%
Donna Deegan: 35.2%
Al Ferraro: 10.6%
Audrey Gibson: 10.2%
Frank Keasler: 0.4%
Undecided / Won't say: 19.7%
If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Donna Deegan and Daniel Davis who would you vote for?
Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%
Undecided / Won't say: 22.9%
If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Donna Deegan and LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber who would you vote
for?
Donna Deegan: 54.9%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber: 15.5%
Undecided / Won't say: 29.6%
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2023_Jacksonville_February13_G6BZ4.pdf
QuoteThree of Jacksonville's best known African American pastors are backing Democrat Donna Deegan for Mayor.
The triple endorsement is the latest sign of coalescence behind Deegan, who was the frontrunner in a St. Pete Polls survey of the race this week....
...With less than five weeks before the March 21 First Election, these endorsements offer an indication that Deegan continues to consolidate Democratic support, despite the fact that former Sen. Audrey Gibson is also running. EMILY's List, an organization backing Democratic women who support access to legalized abortion, also endorsed Deegan Thursday.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/588972-preachers-pick-donna-deegan-in-jax-mayoral-race/
I hope the poll is correct.
It's really early. Each poll had between 20% and 30% undecided.
Additionally, I have a hard time thinking that with THAT much undecided that Deegan gets over 50%. DeSantis pulled 55% of Duval County in November. At this stage with that many undecided, I have a really hard time buying she's got enough support now to cross 50%+1.
Related, I just reread the poll:
They called 478 people who they viewed as "likely" voters. They don't say how they decide a "likely" voter but I have some idea. Let's just say for a second it's logical.
They only include the results from those who say "Yes" or "Unsure" to that question. How many people is that? We know turnout will be lower than the Midterms.
Like I said, maybe it's legit but it FEELS off.
Quote from: Steve on February 17, 2023, 12:10:54 PM
It's really early. Each poll had between 20% and 30% undecided.
Additionally, I have a hard time thinking that with THAT much undecided that Deegan gets over 50%. DeSantis pulled 55% of Duval County in November. At this stage with that many undecided, I have a really hard time buying she's got enough support now to cross 50%+1.
Not sure how you are viewing this. Poll shows only 35% in the primary. The over 50% is in a theoretical runoff between just the two people shown.
Quote from: Steve on February 17, 2023, 12:13:31 PM
Related, I just reread the poll:
They called 478 people who they viewed as "likely" voters. They don't say how they decide a "likely" voter but I have some idea. Let's just say for a second it's logical.
They only include the results from those who say "Yes" or "Unsure" to that question. How many people is that? We know turnout will be lower than the Midterms.
Like I said, maybe it's legit but it FEELS off.
Voter records show how often a person votes and when. It is thus possible for a pollster to only call voters who vote recently and often to insure they get "likely" voters.
These polls are usually within a margin of error of about 3 to 5% so they can be pretty close to reflecting current leanings. As a result, in a close race, they may not be perfect predictors of who wins but with a bigger margins, like we see here, they should be more on the money. A lot can happen up to the last minute to change these results but early voting is open now so many votes may have already been cast should any surprises pop up.
I would imagine that ultimately undecideds break roughly in line with the decideds when they finally come to the table. Given this is a mayoral election that is soon, I don't expect that we will get another poll like this before the election unless someone else (UNF?) puts one out with an update.
For now, this is the best independent reading we have. Candidate takes on their internal polls (see Cumber's comments for example on this poll) are obviously going to have a big spin to them and, thus, are not reliable interpretations.
478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.
Quote from: Jax_Developer on February 17, 2023, 04:08:02 PM
478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.
That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.
The below, courtesy of Nate Monroe, is a sample of the legacy of Mayor Curry. And, "I will lower taxes" Daniel Davis and others of his ilk will only pile on more of this leaving ever increasing City debt for future citizens of Jacksonville.
Quote....Waste Pro's new $23.11 rate is nearly double the $12.65 trash fee, meaning the decline of the fund will accelerate in future years....
....The beleaguered solid-waste fund was already on track to be about $34 million in the red by September, a number that would have been even higher without the benefit of one-time federal money.
The city has propped up trash collection by loaning increasing amounts from its general fund each year. That might sound like a minor budgetary issue, and several years ago it more or less might have been. But it has grown into a thorny financial problem. The general fund loans represent real debt the solid-waste fund must eventually pay back....
....It boils down to a simple concept: The fee residents pay for trash pickup should cover the cost of the service. And at one time this was not a controversial concept. A previous ordinance mandated the fee to go up or down each year automatically based on the cost of garbage pickup. But city officials, for craven political purposes, waived that requirement year after year and eventually just killed the law altogether in 2020. Now, raising the fee is no longer a simple matter of good accounting practices but an overwrought act of political will — the council and mayor must act to do so....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/02/17/lobbyist-nets-city-council-win-for-jacksonville-trash-hauler-waste-pro/69911783007/
Quote from: Josh on February 17, 2023, 04:55:31 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on February 17, 2023, 04:08:02 PM
478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.
That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.
Yeah I can see that's what they want to claim. I've been doing statistics for a bit, and they didn't include, well anything, to prove that confidence range. They threw some demographic data to look like this isn't completely BS, but that doesn't prove much.
Ironically, about a third of their respondents were 70+. Fairly white heavy for duval too. Already, there's bias in the dataset. No serious mathematician would take this seriously. Especially with 8 options & 20% saying IDK. I think these types of polls are damaging and academically dishonest.
Quote from: Josh on February 17, 2023, 04:55:31 PM
Quote from: Jax_Developer on February 17, 2023, 04:08:02 PM
478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.
That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.
Polls are also not really predictions — they're temperature taking from the time poll was done. Things change over time. For example, Davis and Cumber appear to have lost headway from all their negative bickering, but if either got into the general, a lot of folks currently turned off by their antics would support them.
The only televised mayoral debate is tonight at 8 PM on Channel 4/WJXT. It's hosted by JU.
Quote....News4JAX has partnered with JU's Public Policy Institute to ask the seven candidates questions our viewers have told us are important to them....
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/03/08/mayoral-candidates-ready-to-take-stage-debate-jacksonvilles-future/
Not a very inspiring debate to be honest. Daniel Davis seems in over his head. There seems to be a reason that other people do most of the talking in his campaign ads. And I don't think Ferraro answered any questions without bringing up crime. Donna is built for this and seemed to do the best.
I saw a new Davis ad this morning, with him talking to the camera about how bad it is that there are nasty ads attacking him.
Also, in an interview (on FCN?) he said he looked forward to being able to talk, and advertise, about the issues and get away from the attack ads. Why don't you just go ahead and do it? Is this a pledge (or hint) he won't attack Deegan like he is Ferroro and Cumber?
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 09, 2023, 08:52:29 AM
I saw a new Davis ad this morning, with him talking to the camera about how bad it is that there are nasty ads attacking him.
Also, in an interview (on FCN?) he said he looked forward to being able to talk, and advertise, about the issues and get away from the attack ads. Why don't you just go ahead and do it? Is this a pledge (or hint) he won't attack Deegan like he is Ferroro and Cumber?
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/one-on-one-mayoral-candidate-daniel-davis/77-70c1f9a5-499d-4498-8d23-850ad82af3fc
The R vs R vs R in the defacto primary is a blood sport.
The general election, like always, appeals to a broader audience, thus the messages become less robotic, less partisan, more positive/visionary.
I'd wager this election will follow the same formula. Note "less" is not zero : )
The Debate wasn't that great Donna didn't make any gaffes as the front runner. Davis has potential but needs public speaking help. The rest seem like long shots. I'm supporting Donna and think she has a great chance.
I just wish any of these candidates would stop speaking in generalities (I'll lower crime! Improve Education! My opponent is Satan reincarnated as Hitler!) and give us some specifics on what exactly they propose to fix this beautiful city. Something like... permitting. Bailey's Gym has been trying to open a gym in the old Stein Mart building off Baymeadowns/9A for what seems like an eternity. Originally scheduled to open this time last year, Bailey's claims the city planning department continues to drag its feet and has yet to issue their permit to open. A simple gym in an already-constructed-building taking as long to permit as a 200 unit single-family neighborhood.
Sure, there's a chance Bailey's may be to blame but given the city's track record, I highly doubt it.
I was thinking about this.....we could be repeating 2011 here. The best funded Republican and the top democrat make the runoff, but the Republican's inability to actually communicate with people and be presentable could be the Republican's downfall.
In 2011 the first polling between Mike Hogan and Alvin Brown had a 65-35 advantage for Hogan, and Brown overtook him narrowly on election night.
Davis' campaign has truly been uninspiring to this point.
And Davis won't be starting with a polling lead.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Davis.
While his PAC runs attack ads, he has an ad whining about being attacked.
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 11, 2023, 08:14:53 AM
Hypocrisy, thy name is Davis.
While his PAC runs attack ads, he has an ad whining about being attacked.
Have you followed politics in the past 200 years?
Hypocrisy wasn't invented in 2023, nor by any particular candidate.
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 12, 2023, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
You know if DeSantis endorses him he is merely a pawn/lapdog for DeSantis (just see his track record in the Legislature here: https://ballotpedia.org/Jason_Fischer.) That's what earns a DeSantis endorsement nowadays. Based on my observations of his performance in this and his prior elected office, the Duval County School Board, he is in the same league as a Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green or Lauren Boebert, among other wacko GOP'ers.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 12, 2023, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
Seems like it. I remember him running for Congress last year in the newly gerrymandered seat. But he withdrew after having virtually no support.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 12, 2023, 09:21:32 PM
Quote from: fsu813 on March 12, 2023, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
You know if DeSantis endorses him he is merely a pawn/lapdog for DeSantis (just see his track record in the Legislature here: https://ballotpedia.org/Jason_Fischer.) That's what earns a DeSantis endorsement nowadays.
what's even worse here is DeSantis hasn't endorsed him for this race
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 13, 2023, 01:26:18 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 12, 2023, 09:21:32 PM
Quote from: fsu813 on March 12, 2023, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
You know if DeSantis endorses him he is merely a pawn/lapdog for DeSantis (just see his track record in the Legislature here: https://ballotpedia.org/Jason_Fischer.) That's what earns a DeSantis endorsement nowadays.
what's even worse here is DeSantis hasn't endorsed him for this race
Just went to his "campaign" website, https://www.votejasonfischer.com/ . The ONLY thing posted on it is "Endorsed By Ron DeSantis" and an unshaven picture of him. Is he pulling a "George Santos" in misrepresenting this?
To add, the website has no info on his background, nothing about his stand on issues, nada, nothing else! I wonder if the orange used as the "o" in his name is a subtle reference to the "orange" Donald Trump ::). How shallow a campaign can one run? He is counting on the support of those who can manipulate him, for sure. A cardboard candidate that, sadly, will still get votes only because he has an "R" by his name. Reason #1 not to vote strictly along party lines.
Sadly, that's all he needs. A deSantis endorsement and a R behind his name.
His Twitter account is basically just him posting the same creepy photo of him with DeSantis over and over again
So what is going to happen tomorrow? Deegan in the runoff is a pretty safe bet, I take it. Is Davis still the favorite of the other slot? If so, can Deegan overcome the R after his name? Is anyone in serious contention for 2nd other than Davis?
Al Ferraro has seemed to gain a lot of support by default out of annoyance from the Davis vs Cumber shenanigans. Not sure if he'll make it to run-off status though..
Quote from: pierre on March 13, 2023, 10:06:28 AM
Quote from: fsu813 on March 12, 2023, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: pierre on March 12, 2023, 09:01:19 AM
Not specific to the mayors race but what's the deal with this Jason Fischer guy running for Property Appraiser? He seems to only be running on a DeSantis endorsement. I got an ad of his while streaming something and it was mostly about DeSantis. What a toadie.
He'll run for virtually any office of note which he feels he may have a chance. He's a serial runner, desperate for political power/influence.
Seems like it. I remember him running for Congress last year in the newly gerrymandered seat. But he withdrew after having virtually no support.
He had the most cringeworthy advertisements when he was running for Congress.
Quote from: WarDamJagFan on March 20, 2023, 09:59:44 AM
Al Ferraro has seemed to gain a lot of support by default out of annoyance from the Davis vs Cumber shenanigans. Not sure if he'll make it to run-off status though..
I have talked with several "friends" of Davis and none of them are happy with his campaign or his choice to use Tim Baker to run it. I get the feeling at least some of them will be picking another candidate although they would never admit it. Many also fear a Davis administration will just continue the "dead in the water" leadership the City has experienced in recent years. Davis certainly hasn't done anything to indicate otherwise.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 20, 2023, 06:18:06 PM
Quote from: WarDamJagFan on March 20, 2023, 09:59:44 AM
Al Ferraro has seemed to gain a lot of support by default out of annoyance from the Davis vs Cumber shenanigans. Not sure if he'll make it to run-off status though..
I have talked with several "friends" of Davis and none of them are happy with his campaign or his choice to use Tim Baker to run it. I get the feeling at least some of them will be picking another candidate although they would never admit it. Many also fear a Davis administration will just continue the "dead in the water" leadership the City has experienced in recent years. Davis certainly hasn't done anything to indicate otherwise.
As a registered Republican myself, he's done nothing to gain my support and as such, did not receive my vote. Interestingly enough, I looked down at my ballot to review the six various races up for vote... only 3 of my choices had an R next to the name. Signs of the times in Duval I guess?
Davis has run a truly terrible campaign. I also think he truly seems not ready for prime time. But it wouldn't shock me if he ends up advancing to the runoff.
Quote from: pierre on March 21, 2023, 11:46:24 AM
Davis has run a truly terrible campaign. I also think he truly seems not ready for prime time. But it wouldn't shock me if he ends up advancing to the runoff.
Given the campaign that Davis and the others have run, if you were Donna Deegan, who would you rather face in the runoff?
LeAnna mud-slinged back a little more than I was hoping, but if you've ever met her or heard her speak, she's a very articulate, very smart leader-type who has tons of good ideas and is willing to listen to real experts She is personal friends with Bob Buckhorn and I believe would govern as the conservative version of him - supporting a city-wide and downtown boom, but with conservative policies in place for education and law enforcement, etc.
Her campaign's ground game was unmatched by any of the others. Her ads were a bit boilerplate and not representative of her, but she did everything else right - she hired a top of the line consulting firm, she went to every panel, every forum, tried to earn the endorsement or vote of every group she wanted, and really succeeded at all of that. She got tons of great endorsements, raised tons of money, and had a great ground game. I've never seen a candidate in Jacksonville with so much energy!
I have been supporting her and really fingers crossed she makes the R ticket.
As a Trump/Desantis-loving Republican, I recognize the need to view the city and local issues in one bucket, and compartmentalize the national/state issues in separate buckets. Unfortunately many Ferraro voters don't feel that way. I will never vote for Davis and I will not vote for Ferraro if God-forbid he wins the R ticket. If he were running for Congress or State House, I'd most likely support him, but he would be so regressive for our city. His whole campaign was anti-growth, anti-development. I work in real estate and recognize the need to improve our city and expand the tax base (so we don't have to raise the millage rate). His views and policies would plunge us into a local hole.
If it's Cumber v Deegan, obviously Cumber. If it's Davis or Ferarro v Deegan, I will be voting for Deegan. I've explained my thoughts on Ferraro. My thoughts on Davis are that obviously he will say and do anything to gain political power. That's an auto disqualifier to me and I don't want someone who *craves* office. But his negatives (woke BS) are the same as Deegan's negatives to me, so why would I vote for the worse candidate running a terribly negative and vicious campaign? Deegan would do a better job uniting the city and I get the sense that she wants to govern "for the people" rather than for herself.
My lengthy $0.02.
Quote from: simms3 on March 21, 2023, 12:31:02 PM
As a Trump/Desantis-loving Republican, I recognize the need to view the city and local issues in one bucket, and compartmentalize the national/state issues in separate buckets. Unfortunately many Ferraro voters don't feel that way. I will never vote for Davis and I will not vote for Ferraro if God-forbid he wins the R ticket. If he were running for Congress or State House, I'd most likely support him, but he would be so regressive for our city. His whole campaign was anti-growth, anti-development. I work in real estate and recognize the need to improve our city and expand the tax base (so we don't have to raise the millage rate). His views and policies would plunge us into a local hole.
If it's Cumber v Deegan, obviously Cumber. If it's Davis or Ferarro v Deegan, I will be voting for Deegan. I've explained my thoughts on Ferraro. My thoughts on Davis are that obviously he will say and do anything to gain political power. That's an auto disqualifier to me and I don't want someone who *craves* office. But his negatives (woke BS) are the same as Deegan's negatives to me, so why would I vote for the worse candidate running a terribly negative and vicious campaign? Deegan would do a better job uniting the city and I get the sense that she wants to govern "for the people" rather than for herself.
My lengthy $0.02.
Wish more people were able to separate national politics from local politics. The constant mailers in District 11 have all featured the same buzzwords accusing each other of being "radical liberals" instead of explaining what each candidate would do to further improve the city.
It wouldn't solve all the problems but local elections desperately need to be made nonpartisan. Too many people making it to office simply because of the letter next to their names
Yeah I would typically vote R but at a local level they have been annoying me lately and these campaigns are really getting old. I might vote for Donna just because she's not them, especially Davis.
Quote from: acme54321 on March 21, 2023, 02:08:12 PM
Yeah I would typically vote R but at a local level they have been annoying me lately and these campaigns are really getting old. I might vote for Donna just because she's not them, especially Davis.
Same. If it's down to Donna vs Davis, I'm voting Donna. I don't have to agree with someone on everything - like her plan for spending more city dollars on minority owned businesses. All you're doing is transferring favorable treatment from one group to another. But, she's also highlighted the insanity of our permitting process and how it needs to be addressed and shortened. With that, I entirely agree.
If we want the same-ol Jacksonville, then Davis is clearly that guy. I voted for LC and hope that's how this party plays out but we shall see...
Deegan and Davis, not a huge surprise.
Cumber is going to end up waaaay back.
Wow! 5th place out of 7. Very poor ROI for the money spent bashing Davis. What's the line on whether she will endorse the guy she's been calling Dirty and Liberal and Soft on Immigration and ...
Pleased to see Danny Becton come in 3rd for Appraiser.
And we will have a Father-Son pair with Matt and Joe Carlucci. Family get-togethers will be interesting, with them not being able to talk shop.
Now that the defacto bloodbath primary is over, time for the Davis campaign to pivot, reach out to the larger Jax community. He's quite personable and has *far* more relevant experience. Hopefully he gets to show those qualities moving forward. We'll see.
Democrat vote share at 48% - - Deegan does not have far to go if that distrubtion can hold in the general. Clearly a few R primary voters here, myself included, who will flip D in the general. I'd think anyone voting for Ferraro primarily because of fiscal responsibility (sees value in LOGT and/or disgusted by lot J), or anti-corruption would prefer Deegan over Davis. That doesn't need to be many of his voters. Have to imagine a few of Cumber's bloc will be vehemently anti-Davis by now.
Hope remains! I wish it wasn't Davis in the runoff, but the negativity and acrimony on the R side of the ticket may help suppress some R turnout. I wonder if Davis starts answering any media requests for the general?
Concerned Gibson supporters may not return in big numbers for Deegan in the runoff. Same may be true for Ferraro supporters. She will have to pick up a good number of R's that really don't like Davis and will turn out for the next round.
Just can't understand what Davis supporters see in him after this negative and vacuous campaign and his no-show before most every public event.
When most of the public seems to dislike our City Council and Mayor's way of doing business, I continue to be amazed at how many don't show up to vote and then, those that do, reelect so many incumbents. The apathy of our citizens is just as much a part of our leadership issue as those they elect.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 09:06:21 PM
Pleased to see Danny Becton come in 3rd for Appraiser.
You preferred Jason Fischer over Becton? Really? Why?
I didn't see any surprises with the results. Lots of money spent to be where most people thought things would end up months ago.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 09:06:21 PM
Pleased to see Danny Becton come in 3rd for Appraiser.
You preferred Jason Fischer over Becton? Really? Why?
No, not at all. But I can see how it sounds that way. The best outcome would have been Morgan taking it in today's vote. I dislike both of the "R"s in this race. I used to attend Southeast CPAC meetings, and Becton is Becton's greatest fan.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 11:44:00 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 09:06:21 PM
Pleased to see Danny Becton come in 3rd for Appraiser.
You preferred Jason Fischer over Becton? Really? Why?
No, not at all. But I can see how it sounds that way. The best outcome would have been Morgan taking it in today's vote. I dislike both of the "R"s in this race. I used to attend Southeast CPAC meetings, and Becton is Becton's greatest fan.
Well, we should share a common concern in this race, like the Mayoral one. The R's had more than 50% of this race's vote. D's need to show up and R's need to reject Fischer as possibly the worst candidate in any race today.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 12:38:23 AM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 11:44:00 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 09:06:21 PM
Pleased to see Danny Becton come in 3rd for Appraiser.
You preferred Jason Fischer over Becton? Really? Why?
No, not at all. But I can see how it sounds that way. The best outcome would have been Morgan taking it in today's vote. I dislike both of the "R"s in this race. I used to attend Southeast CPAC meetings, and Becton is Becton's greatest fan.
Well, we should share a common concern in this race, like the Mayoral one. The R's had more than 50% of this race's vote. D's need to show up and R's need to reject Fischer as possibly the worst candidate in any race today.
Fischer is the biggest toadie I can remember in a local race in recent memory.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Concerned Gibson supporters may not return in big numbers for Deegan in the runoff. Same may be true for Ferraro supporters.
I would imagine olive branches were extended to both candidates within 10 seconds of the run off being announced last night. Ferraro & Gibson have a lot of leverage at the moment, will be interesting to see how they use it.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on March 21, 2023, 09:06:21 PM
Wow! 5th place out of 7. Very poor ROI for the money spent bashing Davis. What's the line on whether she will endorse the guy she's been calling Dirty and Liberal and Soft on Immigration and ...
$361 per vote to be exact - may be a record breaker for Florida (or even US).
I highly doubt she endorses Davis - I'd actually like to see her endorse Deegan, but expect she just stays quiet.
Quote from: acme54321 on March 21, 2023, 02:08:12 PM
Yeah I would typically vote R but at a local level they have been annoying me lately and these campaigns are really getting old. I might vote for Donna just because she's not them, especially Davis.
I'm now voting for Donna. I believe a lot of other Cumber supporters are and from what I've heard, even Ferraro supporters. None of us like Tim Baker. None of us like Daniel Davis.
Surprised how well Ferraro did. Otherwise yes, in line with expectations.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 22, 2023, 11:45:42 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Concerned Gibson supporters may not return in big numbers for Deegan in the runoff. Same may be true for Ferraro supporters.
I would imagine olive branches were extended to both candidates within 10 seconds of the run off being announced last night. Ferraro & Gibson have a lot of leverage at the moment, will be interesting to see how they use it.
Almost certainly. Both Gibson and Ferraro I would expect to not fade away at this point.
Deegan got respectably close to winning outright on Tuesday, if she can get out there and get people to the polls in May she can absolutely win this.
Quote from: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:
- Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
- Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
- As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
- Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
- Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
A look back..... and worth repeating.
Davis's "victory" speech makes it clear that he wants to be a mini-DeSantis as he explicitly stated so. DeSantis, the governor who has continuously worked to strip local rule and bring back all decisions to Tallahassee.... Whether undermining city ordinances, controlling local school boards, limiting how local elections are conducted, orchestrating how local school taxes are spent, how municipal utilities are operated (suspiciously, maybe to force the sale of JEA), how locally elected DA's should behave, how local health departments should be muzzled, how area water management districts should be run from Tallahassee, how state colleges should not ever disagree with him, how women should talk with their doctors, etc. This is the Davis that wants to be mayor of a city in which he will willingly give up control to DeSantis? Is that what the voters of Jacksonville want? No home rule?
Davis went on to misrepresent Deegan as anti-police and paint her as a "liberal." Yet, he still refuses to show what he stands for. However, if you follow the money ($5+ million, where do you think that came from?), you will see that he will be a lapdog for developers, power brokers, the Curry machine, etc., not a man of the people. An empty suit. A DeSantis want-to-be.
FYI, see Nate Monroe's post election analysis here: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/03/22/nate-monroe-in-quest-for-mayor-davis-will-spend-deegan-will-work/70030698007/
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 11:07:32 AM
... I usually give outsized weight to the (perceived) character of local candidates vs. their ideologies. I'd rather have a transparent, well-run government spending my tax dollars on priorities I don't support than a dysfunctional, backstabbing cabal of political climbers flushing those taxes down the toilet in a way that benefits nobody but their donors. If you run a dirty campaign for a local seat, it's a pretty good predictor of your behavior once you hold the office.
It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.
I still stand by this. R or D is irrelevant to local government, despite voters voting party-line. We need people of character who are focused on local issues in office, period. Then we can commence arguing partisan politics at the state and national level, like civilized brutes.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on March 22, 2023, 11:37:09 PM
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on February 11, 2022, 11:07:32 AM
... I usually give outsized weight to the (perceived) character of local candidates vs. their ideologies. I'd rather have a transparent, well-run government spending my tax dollars on priorities I don't support than a dysfunctional, backstabbing cabal of political climbers flushing those taxes down the toilet in a way that benefits nobody but their donors. If you run a dirty campaign for a local seat, it's a pretty good predictor of your behavior once you hold the office.
It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.
I still stand by this. R or D is irrelevant to local government, despite voters voting party-line. We need people of character who are focused on local issues in office, period. Then we can commence arguing partisan politics at the state and national level, like civilized brutes.
JAX municipal elections are easily the most 'nationalized' I have seen, and I have lived in or closely followed the local politics of many cities. That is a big part of why JAX is an under achieving city. Non-partisan elections would be a big improvement and would swift out a lot the nonsense that pollutes these races.
^ well that isn't happening. In fact, there's a bill in the Legislature to all but outlaw non-partisan elections. The power structure in Tallahassee want voters to see D and R with candidates.
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 23, 2023, 09:27:59 AM
^ well that isn't happening. In fact, there's a bill in the Legislature to all but outlaw non-partisan elections. The power structure in Tallahassee want voters to see D and R with candidates.
Figures. A Charter Amendment would do it, which a petition movement would allow. FL just getting more authoritarian by the day.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:00:33 PM
Surprised how well Ferraro did. Otherwise yes, in line with expectations.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 22, 2023, 11:45:42 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Concerned Gibson supporters may not return in big numbers for Deegan in the runoff. Same may be true for Ferraro supporters.
I would imagine olive branches were extended to both candidates within 10 seconds of the run off being announced last night. Ferraro & Gibson have a lot of leverage at the moment, will be interesting to see how they use it.
Almost certainly. Both Gibson and Ferraro I would expect to not fade away at this point.
Deegan got respectably close to winning outright on Tuesday, if she can get out there and get people to the polls in May she can absolutely win this.
Oh.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/597713-audrey-gibson-will-not-endorse-donna-deegan-for-jacksonville-mayor/
QuoteIn an exclusive interview with Florida Politics, former Senate Democratic Leader Audrey Gibson, who was eliminated in the First Election, emphatically stated that she would not endorse Donna Deegan in the runoff election.
Gibson, who spent roughly two decades in Tallahassee, has no plans to endorse Republican Daniel Davis either.
"I'm not endorsing anyone," she said.
^
^
Wow. What a bitter, selfish response.
This and the Jefferson/Burton non-endorsment are great examples of why 1 party dominates in Jax.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 23, 2023, 03:08:39 PM
Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:00:33 PM
Surprised how well Ferraro did. Otherwise yes, in line with expectations.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 22, 2023, 11:45:42 AM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 21, 2023, 11:22:51 PM
Concerned Gibson supporters may not return in big numbers for Deegan in the runoff. Same may be true for Ferraro supporters.
I would imagine olive branches were extended to both candidates within 10 seconds of the run off being announced last night. Ferraro & Gibson have a lot of leverage at the moment, will be interesting to see how they use it.
Almost certainly. Both Gibson and Ferraro I would expect to not fade away at this point.
Deegan got respectably close to winning outright on Tuesday, if she can get out there and get people to the polls in May she can absolutely win this.
Oh.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/597713-audrey-gibson-will-not-endorse-donna-deegan-for-jacksonville-mayor/
QuoteIn an exclusive interview with Florida Politics, former Senate Democratic Leader Audrey Gibson, who was eliminated in the First Election, emphatically stated that she would not endorse Donna Deegan in the runoff election.
Gibson, who spent roughly two decades in Tallahassee, has no plans to endorse Republican Daniel Davis either.
"I'm not endorsing anyone," she said.
Quote from: fsu813 on March 23, 2023, 03:48:24 PM
^
Wow. What a bitter, selfish response.
This and the Jefferson/Burton non-endorsment are great examples of why 1 party dominates in Jax.
You have to think in terms of what is best for the candidate's pocketbook/career, not for the City. Some speculated R's put Gibson up to keep Deegan from getting 50%. Further, Gibson may want to keep her options open for a seat in a Davis administration if she is banking on (or even helping him) win the race.
Too many Dem's in Jax are really DINO's because they only want to be in a seat of power and if the R's hold it, they will find a way to cater to their power plays. Just look at how some Dem's on the Council regularly sided with Curry so they could get personal/political favors from him, not for their constituents, but for their own self interests. The machine owns both parties here.
^^
Yes. It's why so many people don't vote in local elections. There doesn't feel like that much a difference between local parties sometimes.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 10:41:56 PM
Davis's "victory" speech makes it clear that he wants to be a mini-DeSantis as he explicitly stated so. DeSantis, the governor who has continuously worked to strip local rule and bring back all decisions to Tallahassee.... Whether undermining city ordinances, controlling local school boards, limiting how local elections are conducted, orchestrating how local school taxes are spent, how municipal utilities are operated (suspiciously, maybe to force the sale of JEA), how locally elected DA's should behave, how local health departments should be muzzled, how area water management districts should be run from Tallahassee, how state colleges should not ever disagree with him, how women should talk with their doctors, etc. This is the Davis that wants to be mayor of a city in which he will willingly give up control to DeSantis? Is that what the voters of Jacksonville want? No home rule?
Davis went on to misrepresent Deegan as anti-police and paint her as a "liberal." Yet, he still refuses to show what he stands for. However, if you follow the money ($5+ million, where do you think that came from?), you will see that he will be a lapdog for developers, power brokers, the Curry machine, etc., not a man of the people. An empty suit. A DeSantis want-to-be.
FYI, see Nate Monroe's post election analysis here: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/03/22/nate-monroe-in-quest-for-mayor-davis-will-spend-deegan-will-work/70030698007/
You are very disconnected from the real right my friend. Davis is one of the biggest RINOs to run in a long time. He has a fairly progressive policy history while in the state house and as Chamber president. In fact, DeSantis and the current legislature are in the process of undoing some laws that Davis had voted for.
Davis was silent on basically all issues, but especially the cultural hot button issues that matter to most people, including conservatives. He was the only republican to not have a response to the monument issue, for instance. There was a huge scandal with JASMYN, which involves the *biggest* hot button issue to traditional family values conservatives, and while he runs as a "family values Christian conservative", he has danced around that and waffled and avoided bringing it up or answering questions. Why can't he just easily denounce an organization that hosted the "Saturgayz" parties marketed to teens as young as 13, or all the crap (such as dildos in the shape of a heart marketing the now infamous "penis game") that they posted on their Instagram while receiving sponsorship from taxpayer partially funded Chamber and the $180K they received from DCPS over three years?
We all know silence is capitulation to the "other side", so is he a DeSantis style conservative republican? Whatever he tries to tell the public now to rescue his campaign, his record would say absolutely otherwise.
He could have come across as authentic, even, by apologizing for not doing enough due diligence on the organization before sponsoring it, and promising that he had learned from his mistake and would certainly be more scrupulous as mayor, recognizing the need to be a good steward of taxpayer money and leaning truly into "conservative Christian family values" he says he has. That might have actually curried favor with the rest of us republicans who lost Tuesday.
In fact, those of us conservatives who really pay attention are smart enough to realize that he would be no different on many of those issues than Donna Deegan. He's a Chamber of Commerce republican and will say and do anything deemed best by big woke corporations who sway with all of the cultural tides and phenomena of the present age.
Why would we vote in someone we don't like and won't be the kind of R we want who *will* be there for 8 years when we can vote for the same thing in true form (Democrat Donna) who won't be so vicious and who will likely be a 4-year Alvin repeat with no real hard turns to the left (such as defunding police - she won't be that stupid)?
Davis is screwed unless Donna really royally screws up.
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 23, 2023, 09:27:59 AM
^ well that isn't happening. In fact, there's a bill in the Legislature to all but outlaw non-partisan elections. The power structure in Tallahassee want voters to see D and R with candidates.
... and ignoring the " Independent " vote....
Idiots
Why would we vote in someone we don't like and won't be the kind of R we want who *will* be there for 8 years when we can vote for the same thing in true form (Democrat Donna) who won't be so vicious and who will likely be a 4-year Alvin repeat with no real hard turns to the left (such as defunding police - she won't be that stupid)?
Davis is screwed unless Donna really royally screws up.
[/quote]
Low vote turnout. Some flickers of civic duty and interest, elevated voter " turnout" evident within Ortega, Avondale, " and to a lesser degree " Riverside.For example.
Riverside/ Avondale " RAP District" breakup, jettison Riverside was an element in Redistrict process.
Huge swaths of Duval, referenced and targeted as " Voiceless" and " underserved" represent areas where the resident population has exhibited a propensity to not vote.
Donna needs to focus on those that will vote. Certifiably.
Perhaps she can encourage those voiceless and underserved that could vote but have not voted to become engaged with vote now.
Has not worked for Charlie Crist. For example.
As a long established Avondale resident, for the first time in decades I was very close to not voting. Even for the District Council candidate I made a contribution to.
Realizing that there will likely be a move out of Jacksonville dashes candidate review and vote zeal.
Quote from: simms3 on March 24, 2023, 07:51:40 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 10:41:56 PM
Davis's "victory" speech makes it clear that he wants to be a mini-DeSantis as he explicitly stated so. DeSantis, the governor who has continuously worked to strip local rule and bring back all decisions to Tallahassee.... Whether undermining city ordinances, controlling local school boards, limiting how local elections are conducted, orchestrating how local school taxes are spent, how municipal utilities are operated (suspiciously, maybe to force the sale of JEA), how locally elected DA's should behave, how local health departments should be muzzled, how area water management districts should be run from Tallahassee, how state colleges should not ever disagree with him, how women should talk with their doctors, etc. This is the Davis that wants to be mayor of a city in which he will willingly give up control to DeSantis? Is that what the voters of Jacksonville want? No home rule?
Davis went on to misrepresent Deegan as anti-police and paint her as a "liberal." Yet, he still refuses to show what he stands for. However, if you follow the money ($5+ million, where do you think that came from?), you will see that he will be a lapdog for developers, power brokers, the Curry machine, etc., not a man of the people. An empty suit. A DeSantis want-to-be.
FYI, see Nate Monroe's post election analysis here: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/03/22/nate-monroe-in-quest-for-mayor-davis-will-spend-deegan-will-work/70030698007/
You are very disconnected from the real right my friend. Davis is one of the biggest RINOs to run in a long time. He has a fairly progressive policy history while in the state house and as Chamber president. In fact, DeSantis and the current legislature are in the process of undoing some laws that Davis had voted for.
Davis was silent on basically all issues, but especially the cultural hot button issues that matter to most people, including conservatives. He was the only republican to not have a response to the monument issue, for instance. There was a huge scandal with JASMYN, which involves the *biggest* hot button issue to traditional family values conservatives, and while he runs as a "family values Christian conservative", he has danced around that and waffled and avoided bringing it up or answering questions. Why can't he just easily denounce an organization that hosted the "Saturgayz" parties marketed to teens as young as 13, or all the crap (such as dildos in the shape of a heart marketing the now infamous "penis game") that they posted on their Instagram while receiving sponsorship from taxpayer partially funded Chamber and the $180K they received from DCPS over three years?
We all know silence is capitulation to the "other side", so is he a DeSantis style conservative republican? Whatever he tries to tell the public now to rescue his campaign, his record would say absolutely otherwise.
He could have come across as authentic, even, by apologizing for not doing enough due diligence on the organization before sponsoring it, and promising that he had learned from his mistake and would certainly be more scrupulous as mayor, recognizing the need to be a good steward of taxpayer money and leaning truly into "conservative Christian family values" he says he has. That might have actually curried favor with the rest of us republicans who lost Tuesday.
In fact, those of us conservatives who really pay attention are smart enough to realize that he would be no different on many of those issues than Donna Deegan. He's a Chamber of Commerce republican and will say and do anything deemed best by big woke corporations who sway with all of the cultural tides and phenomena of the present age.
Why would we vote in someone we don't like and won't be the kind of R we want who *will* be there for 8 years when we can vote for the same thing in true form (Democrat Donna) who won't be so vicious and who will likely be a 4-year Alvin repeat with no real hard turns to the left (such as defunding police - she won't be that stupid)?
Davis is screwed unless Donna really royally screws up.
Simms, I am merely working off the quotes that came out of Davis's mouth. He said he is aligned with DeSantis. Maybe not really, but that is what he said. He also painted Deegan accordingly. He is likely two-faced which shows a lack of character for political expediency so who knows what he really stands for.
We can agree that Deegan will hopefully be a moderate in office and focus on doing what she sincerely thinks is best for the citizens of Jacksonville without pushing devisive partisan party politics and DeSantis culture wars. Davis is now indicating we can't expect that from him. Further, Davis is supported by the "machine" and I think Curry has shown that is not for the good of the citizenry either.
I only hope if Deegan is elected the Republican majority council will put aside party affiliations and do the right thing for constituents and not try to sabotage most everything like they did for Alvin Brown, who was hardly a perfect mayor but did get defeated on the few things he tried to get right. It is just sickening to see City decisions made based only on party affiliation, not what should be nonpartisan and noncontroversial issues.
Well getting rid of "the machine" is really what's uniting some conservatives and democrats in this town.
At the end of the day, while Davis is a two-face fake conservative based on his own record, on other really important topics such as vision for the city, he also remains completely silent.
He calls Jacksonville the second hottest real estate market in the country right now. Anyone with half a brain knows that ain't remotely true. It's about as empty as him taking credit for Dunn & Bradstreet's corporate relocation to Jax.
With his history being in positions of power and influence, he's had at least a decade and a half now to articulate a vision for the city and help execute. I would argue that he has been extremely ineffective and done the bare minimum thing. I am not a fan of many in his fan base...I do have the displeasure of interacting with some of them in social life and these are not people I would ever personally fit in with or want to be friends with. We are all who we surround ourselves with and from what I've observed, there's a "clique" I don't care to have leading this city into the future or benefiting from personal favors at everyone else's lost opportunity.
But Tim Baker and Brian Hughes really run this town, and so he's merely one of their puppets. That's what I think we all want to end!
Duval is the second hottest real estate market!????
Does that assessment include those thrilled to move out?
Davis connection to Home Builders Political Machine is Classic.
Quote from: Florida Power And Light on March 29, 2023, 08:51:13 PM
Duval is the second hottest real estate market!????
Does that assessment include those thrilled to move out?
Davis connection to Home Builders Political Machine is Classic.
Not 2nd hottest RE market, no. However, Jax MSA was 3rd fastest growing MSA > 1 million people last year, behind only Austin and Raleigh. Census 2022 county estimates just came out.
You can have all the population growth you want, though, but if it doesn't translate to quality development projects or S FL level home price appreciation for existing residents, I wouldn't say we are anywhere close to "2nd hottest RE market" in country.
Related to Davis - we've had for well over a decade now some pretty impressive population growth. Where the hell are the new office buildings and headquarters? We've gotten very little, which indicates that Davis not doing a great job bringing office jobs to Jax. Even with the office building trends now in effect, with our population growth, one would think we'd at least get a bit more. We have the worst office market in the country. I feel bad for some of my coworkers right now who are only focused on the office market, and office investment sales. Not much happenin'.
We need to not only attract the "work from home" types, but we need to be attracting actual corporate relocations. So far they are all going to Nashville, Orlando, Tampa, South FL, Charlotte, etc Where's our share? When's our next Fidelity moment?
^ Ironically, Daniel Davis is now aligning himself with DeSantis, who is doing more to drive corporate relocations away from Florida, henceforth, than anyone. Heard this from those who work in recruiting same.
Florida will always get a few wins due to its geography and low tax structure but anyone looking for a well educated work force, cultural enrichment, freedom to disagree with your government without retribution and an accepting environment for a diverse group of employees is likely looking elsewhere. And, by the time we let developers pave over the State, one might add a declining quality of life to the list. Allowing permit-less and open carry guns isn't going to give most people the warm and fuzzies either. And, to come, underfunding resiliency and gutting wetland protections in the face of global warming bringing rising waters and stronger tropical storms.
Quote from: simms3 on March 31, 2023, 12:16:43 PM
When's our next Fidelity moment?
UF's further expansion into the urban core of Jax is considered by many in leadership as that next moment. Jags, Fidelity & UF campus are the 3 biggest impacts on Jax in the past 30 years, according to some heavy weights.
We'll see.
UF could be big, nothing really clear though on what's happening there right now. Rooting for it, though! I have heard about the involvement of a few names in particular for getting UF to Jax, so even there I am sure the Chamber was accommodating and playing its role to facilitate any sort of transaction, but local business leaders seemed to play the largest role behind the scenes in making something actually happen.
Maybe I'm not exactly clear what a Chamber CEO's role is supposed to be besides a facilitator and I'm expecting so much more from it. But when I look at the salary of our Chamber CEO, to me that's the salary of a deal maker, not a deal facilitator. Am I way off there? The other FL Chamber CEOs make quite a bit less than ours...
Quote from: simms3 on March 31, 2023, 02:50:48 PM
UF could be big, nothing really clear though on what's happening there right now. Rooting for it, though! I have heard about the involvement of a few names in particular for getting UF to Jax, so even there I am sure the Chamber was accommodating and playing its role to facilitate any sort of transaction, but local business leaders seemed to play the largest role behind the scenes in making something actually happen.
Maybe I'm not exactly clear what a Chamber CEO's role is supposed to be besides a facilitator and I'm expecting so much more from it. But when I look at the salary of our Chamber CEO, to me that's the salary of a deal maker, not a deal facilitator. Am I way off there? The other FL Chamber CEOs make quite a bit less than ours...
I read in Florida Politics that Daniel Davis' salary is $100k higher than that of the Florida Chamber CEO. We should definitely have more to show for what we're paying for
Chamber of Commerce President/CEO Salaries around FL (most data comes from Google searches leading to articles, ProPublica and Non-Profit Light):
Jacksonville - Daniel Davis - $536,000
State of FL - Mark Wilson - $452,000
Greater Orlando - Tim Giuliani - $419,000
Greater Tampa Bay - Bob Rohrlack - $363,000
St. Petersburg - Christopher Steinocher - $282,000
Greater Miami - Alfred Sanchez - $234,000
Greater Orlando Hispanic - Gabi Ortigoni - $166,000
Greater Fort Lauderdale - Daniel Lindblade - $152,000
Palm Beach - Laurel Baker (resigned last year after 21 years) - $85,000
You can't make this stuff up. Gotta add the rumors (probably true, at least partially), that Daniel Davis would keep his job as CEO if he lost mayoral race and that Lenny Curry would replace him as CEO if he won the mayoral race. Maybe false, but this is how jaded we all are by now...Don't forget that Lenny teed himself up by increasing city (really US the Taxpayer) contribution to $750K/yr.
On jobs coming to FL - yes, they are pouring in. DeSantis actually has done quite a bit to attract the attention of many employers, and beyond employers, many people just want to move here now, which itself will bring employers. The evidence is in our population growth and anecdotally once you remove yourself from the progressive left circles, people like it here, and that includes politically.
The only thing is...many of the big job announcements have just skipped right on over Jacksonville since we are so asleep at the wheel. Our mayor was apparently the only big city mayor in our state to not respond to the Wall Street Journal ad that Blackstone ran looking for a second HQ city in the state. Aundra Wallace was asked about that and his response was super lame: "Oh I know which companies we even have a shot at attracting and 'hedge funds' are not included". Forget the fact that Blackstone isn't even a "hedge fund", even if it operates one as a smaller part of its business. It is very standard private equity. I thought we were trying to be a big finance town and move past the back office jobs?
I suppose not. For $536K a year we will continue to throw incentives at warehouse jobs coming here anyway and take credit for any news that comes to Jax, whether it had anything to do with the Chamber or not.
^ And one big win, Dun & Bradstreet, really came due to efforts of Black Knight more than the City.
Warehouse/distribution and call center/back office jobs are fine but they aren't going to move the City forward like professional positions that are much higher paying and often require higher levels of education. Also, HQ's are going to contribute more to the City's quality of life than "just another" regional warehouse of a company with regional warehouses all over the continent.
Good question: Should the City be focused more on incentivizing company HQ's than all these development projects? If we had the first, maybe we wouldn't need to incentivize the second.
A few more for comparison:
Atlanta - Hala Moddelmog - $717,000
Nashville - Ralph Schulz - $530,000
Austin - Mike Rollins (formerly) - $529,000
Charlotte - Bob Morgan (formerly) - $469,000
Greater Raleigh - Adrienne Cole - $279,000
Greater San Antonio - Richard Perez - $275,000
Anybody curious as to the backgrounds of the other highly compensated peers (Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, Austin), see bios below of their Chamber CEOs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hala_Moddelmog
https://www.uschamberfoundation.org/bio/ralph-schulz-president-and-ceo-nashville-area-chamber-commerce
https://www.austinchamber.com/press-releases/austin-chamber-president-ceo-mike-rollins-set-to-retire-march-2020
https://www.scchamber.net/staff/staff/bob-morgan/
None of these leaders are politically oriented people. They all come from or remain in the business world, non-profit world, and/or economic development world. Obviously in Jacksonville's case, as with everything, the position is just a position to fill in city leadership while waiting for another position to fill. Rotate in and out with the same group of people. And we wonder why we get left behind...
These other cities are trying to recruit the talent from each other and that possibly explains the higher salaries. Not only that, they have A LOT to show for themselves.
Looks like Austin hired the former Nashville Chamber CEO, and both of those cities are doing really well. Obviously Austin saw something in Nashville at the time that it wanted, and looks like it paid off. That guy was Austin Chamber CEO from 2002 to 2020.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 31, 2023, 06:07:08 PM
Good question: Should the City be focused more on incentivizing company HQ's than all these development projects? If we had the first, maybe we wouldn't need to incentivize the second.
On a similar note, we are incentivizing the hell out of apartments downtown. $36M for one project?? Would we need to throw that money around if we had a ton of high paying downtown jobs? Dunn & Bradstreet should have been a no-brainer for downtown. We'll see where PayForce goes, but wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't go downtown somewhere.
One more thing about CCEO compensation - I noticed that a couple other highly paid chamber CEOs also received bonuses. For instance Charlotte's received bonuses of $108-120K, which is included in the number above. I'm pretty sure Daniel's is straight base? I could be wrong.
Regardless, call me a cynic and I hate commenting on others' pay, but when the taxpayers are helping foot the bill and our city is obviously so poorly run across the board (with a Chamber getting seemingly lapped by others), I think we are perfectly within reason to complain about these things. I've seen several leaders recently talk, both within the COJ and within the quasi-governmental authorities, and I've seen them talk next to their peers in one case, and COJ leadership (meaning current administration appointees) through and through just does not seem all that impressive. Our bar is so low and any win no matter how small is a major headline. Our neighboring counties may have difficult county commissions right now, but in some cases their staff is superior, and by a lot in one case I can think of, to the equivalent role within COJ. Perhaps it's because they feel like they have to at least try whereas COJ feels comfortable putting its feet up.
I'm still of the mindset that I would take a bump on a log over anyone graduating from the existing system.
Come to think of it, it's not Davis's fault he's getting paid more than any other CCEO in FL or as much as his [IMHO] more qualified peers in much more prosperous cities. He asked for his salary as anyone would, and the stupid Jax Chamber said Sure! It's only the Chamber's members' contributions and a COJ taxpayer contribution that fund this idiocy.
I can't hold his salary against him, personally. BUT...the whole thing is just so Jacksonville. We never get any bang for our buck and then we get these power brokers who all they care about is eventually being mayor or something and where's the meritocracy here? I do hold it against him who he chooses to run his campaign (Tim Baker) and how he allows it to be run (viciously with some duck and cover).
I heard there will likely be low Democrat turnout. DeSantis just endorsed Davis yesterday, calling him the Law & Order candidate Jax needs. We are likely about to see a string of ads showing Donna crying the day Gillum lost and DeSantis won, as well as her comments about defunding the police, which she did make (BIG JUDGMENT ERROR on both accounts if she was even considering her run at the time).
He may just win as those ads are not going to look good for her at all and Davis's vicious attack ads are probably what got him to the runoff. Trump has been running vicious ads against DeSantis and even before his indictment he was surging in the polls. It's a sad day because of this, but the "average person" apparently responds favorably to attack ads against another.
It's just so weird because in my entire circle, left and right, rich and poor, I could have sworn everyone I knew in Jax was very tired of the attack ads during the primary. I'm pretty sure I knew people who voted Ferraro simply because he was the only candidate who didn't run any.
Exactly what are these comments that Deegan supposedly made that are so objectionable?
I don't doubt that it will be a slash and burn largely falsehood campaign run by Davis, because that is what anyone should expect.
Vic, we live in separate universes. Look at Davis's most recent ad. If you cannot figure out what Donna has said in the past that is controversial and incredibly stupid at the least, then our brains, philosophies and everything we are about is in such misalignment that it's no use discussing it.
She has a record of statements that are very much cause for concern to a lot of people and for good reason. Her campaign has been great for the most part, so far as I'm concerned. But I certainly share in others' concerns about her based on said statements from before she decided to run for anything.
Sadly, Davis can use these against her *AND* use the R by his name in his favor, as well as aligning with DeSants, despite the fact that I do not believe he is even a real conservative or a stand up guy fighting for what he believes in. To me he is such a politician, and so I don't think he offers a compelling story against her, however, the average person will vote based on ads, slogans, D or R, and recent alignments.
No surprise that Davis is falling back on dirty gutter politics. That and his donor class cash is all he has to offer.
I haven't heard or seen anything, although I haven't watched much regular tv (outside of my cane's final four run) recently. What are they saying?
Quote from: thelakelander on April 03, 2023, 02:53:34 PM
I haven't heard or seen anything, although I haven't watched much regular tv (outside of my cane's final four run) recently. What are they saying?
Race baiting right now. Attacking Deegan for attending Black Lives Matter rallies by showing clips of the one riot that happened here and ostensibly objectional things the national BLM organization has said. Because you know, right wing protesters have never turned violent. It's the same dirty culture war tactics he used on Cumber and Ferraro (and that Cumber gave back to him) that say nothing, but that rile up his base.
Below is a link to the Davis ad if you haven't seen it. Typical Tim Baker hack job. Associate distasteful and grossly inaccurate sound bites with the opposing candidate. This from Davis who filed suit over Cumber's campaign for doing the exact same thing to him. Big time hypocrite.
Still, nothing on what Davis would actually do if elected mayor other than likely pander to his big developer donors, just like Curry did. Just follow the money.
Quotehttps://www.news4jax.com/video/local-news/2023/04/03/republican-funded-ad-goes-after-democrat-mayoral-candidate-donna-deegan-/
Contrast this with the positive ad Deegan is running emphasizing what she would do if elected mayor:
Quotehttps://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/04/03/differing-campaign-ad-approaches-on-full-display-for-jacksonville-mayoral-hopefuls-deegan-davis/
To the theme of Davis' ad, if you are left wondering about what a candidate stands for, look no further than Davis.
Simms, I don't live in JAX and hadn't seen the ads until the link was posted above.
Just as I suspected, it is a BS smear ad. Typical of what the Right does. I've seen a million of them in my day. Deegan supports a citizens review board which is a reasonable request.
^It's an emotional appeal, not a factual one. Davis wants folks talking about his hit piece. I'd rather talk about issues that matter. Davis is just the current figurehead of the crew that's been in charge for years. Under their watch, violent crime is rampant; housing prices and rent are soaring; and cronyism is off the charts. Davis was an active participant in the push to sell JEA, creating the largest corruption scandal in Jacksonville in decades. So far as I can tell he has no ideas for solving our problems, updating our infrastructure or building the local economy. He literally won't talk about what he'll do as mayor; all he's got are negative attack ads.
Linking her to the Black Lives Matter Riots - the ad selectively shows the violent portions of the events, interspersed with video of Donna saying "I went to all of the Black Lives Matter demonstrations [not sure about the last word]" - A few seconds of riots, Donna's quote, a few more seconds of riots, same Donna quote, lather, rinse, and repeat a few times. Also has a clip of Donna saying she supports a Civilian Police Review Board paired with video of a JSO cruiser being trashed, with her saying the Review Board would be to review police misconduct. The tagline is something along the lines of "She is not on [y]our side" (again, I don't remember the exact wording. Of course, there is Ominous Voice-Over of how BLM supports defunding the police, and how she supports them.
In interviews on the evening news, Davis defended the ad, and Donna
ETA: I typed this before seeing the above comments. I didn't turn the page on my display.
I hope the Action News moderators at next week's debate can pin him down on some of the real issues.
Davis is very awkward when speaking and was terrible at the debate prior to the first election. Deegan has literally spent her entire adult life being on camera. I'm really interested in how this looks on TV.
Is it too much to hope the moderators will press for an answer when a candidate tries to bob and weave?
Quote from: Charles Hunter on April 04, 2023, 01:35:52 PM
Is it too much to hope the moderators will press for an answer when a candidate tries to bob and weave?
It's the primetime anchors, so no unless you give them a teleprompter.
Meanwhile, this came out just a few days ago:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/04/04/jacksonville-ethics-commission-decides-against-pursuing-investigation-into-possible-cumber-jea-connections/
Oh really? But it wasn't just a political stunt job to kill an opponent's chances...it was investigating real matters!
This is a city filled with conservatives who hate what's happened in DC and to our country. And yet, the same thing is happening to our own city by people who put an R by their name. Den of thieves...corruption, greed, insatiable desire for power and for money every which way.
Watched the mayoral debate between Deegan and Davis tonight. I may be biased, but I thought Deegan crushed Davis. Loved her closing statement calling out local corruption and that it is time for a change in City leadership. She also took head on Davis' attack ad about the Black Lives Matter marches. Davis failed to even respond on point when asked about the ad. Just platitudes, no substance. Just like he is on all other issues.
Anybody else want to weigh in?
I missed it. Didn't know that it was tonight.
My take is pretty similar to jaxlongtimer. Davis was a bad liar about JEA and Donna was clearly better. However he did better than I expected.
He never looks comfortable
I thought Deegan did better than Davis, but I think Deegan left some cards on the table:
-her closing statement was clearly trying to articulate "do you want more of the same or do you want change," but it didn't come out well. She could have slammed a million things there like JEA, Lot J, etc. it lacked substance.
-The first half of the debate was dominated by Deegan. After the break Davis recovered a little. That said, he clearly doesn't look comfortable and he sounds like a robot.
-There were a few odd questions where I felt like neither candidate answered, but I also think the question could have been worded better.
Deegan clearly won, but it wasn't a 10-1 demolition after the first half was over.
Quote from: simms3 on April 07, 2023, 01:20:46 PM
Meanwhile, this came out just a few days ago:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/04/04/jacksonville-ethics-commission-decides-against-pursuing-investigation-into-possible-cumber-jea-connections/
Oh really? But it wasn't just a political stunt job to kill an opponent's chances...it was investigating real matters!
This is a city filled with conservatives who hate what's happened in DC and to our country. And yet, the same thing is happening to our own city by people who put an R by their name. Den of thieves...corruption, greed, insatiable desire for power and for money every which way.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. There is no viable opposition to the GOP in Jacksonville or Florida.
Donna won that debate decisively. Davis nailed a few questions, but he came off weird and robotic for most of it, and he totally blew the questions on Lot J and negotiating the stadium deal. I dubbed him Chamberbot 2000 on Twitter last night, which I'm pretty pleased with: https://twitter.com/Tacachale/status/1649187242441580545
I expect even Republicans who were unimpressed with Davis's performance and answers will still turn out for him. Donna's continuing to show momentum into the last weeks, but it'll be a matter of turnout.
Another lesson for the cons: Davis was better when he was off the cuff. If that Davis were the one we were seeing, he'd probably have this election buttoned up. That is to say, he would be a FAR better candidate if he wasn't just regurgitating so many canned answers and falling back so much on name dropping (he mentioned Sheriff Waters like 1000 times) and attack ads. The machine consultants that are supposed to be helping him are making him a worse candidate.
Quote from: thelakelander on April 20, 2023, 08:37:27 PM
I missed it. Didn't know that it was tonight.
If you missed the debate, you can watch it in full online here: https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/duval-county/watch-live-7-action-news-jaxs-davis-deegan-jacksonville-mayoral-debate-live-unf/KW2YF4LPENCNNJ7IJJYXKX4ZRE/
And here is a Times Union overview of some of the major lines in the debate: https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/state/2023/04/20/jacksonville-mayoral-candidates-davis-deegan-debate-crime-rate-jea-stadium-at-unf-on-action-news-jax/70123268007/
And here is a debate about the performances during the debate: https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/politics/action-news-jaxs-ben-becker-breaks-down-davis-deegan-debate-with-republican-democratic-analysts/T5QMBBBAMJDS5OVF2ADK6NKROQ/
I think the last link above just reinforces how strong Deegan debated vs. Davis. Substance vs. fluff.
Nate Monroe deconstructs Davis's campaign with devastating effect.
As Curry 2.0, Monroe points out that Davis's stances, best one can make out, are all slights upon Curry. So, essentially, by being Curry 2.0, Davis is running against himself and, thus, admitting he will be as incompetent as Curry. Starting with his play on crime and hiring more cops.
QuoteThe Jacksonville mayoral campaign is a rotten sequel
....JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis can't directly criticize this tragic run under Curry, who supports Davis' candidacy and with whom he shares a political consultant, but the organizing principle of Davis' mayoral campaign assumes Jacksonville is a city drowning in crime and in urgent need of more cops — a situation so dire the mere election of someone who is not Daniel Davis could well teeter the city into a violent oblivion. Daniel Davis, you see, has the answers.
It is a hall of mirrors — an offered solution to a problem perpetuated by the very people hoping to once again return to power. That this is a rotten sequel to the 2015 campaign, that the rhetoric and promises of more police on the ground are almost comically identical, that, to the extent Davis' insipid campaign can claim any level of substance, the substance actually suggests Davis has a bigger problem with Curry than he does his Democratic opponent, hardly seems to register as Davis earnestly prattles on about stuff we all heard eight years ago when The Big Problem was less of a big problem than it is today.....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/04/21/jacksonville-mayoral-campaign-is-a-bad-sequel-nate-monroe/70136987007/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 22, 2023, 10:44:37 PM
Nate Monroe deconstructs Davis's campaign with devastating effect.
As Curry 2.0, Monroe points out that Davis's stances, best one can make out, are all slights upon Curry. So, essentially, by being Curry 2.0, Davis is running against himself and, thus, admitting he will be as incompetent as Curry. Starting with his play on crime and hiring more cops.
QuoteThe Jacksonville mayoral campaign is a rotten sequel
....JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis can't directly criticize this tragic run under Curry, who supports Davis' candidacy and with whom he shares a political consultant, but the organizing principle of Davis' mayoral campaign assumes Jacksonville is a city drowning in crime and in urgent need of more cops — a situation so dire the mere election of someone who is not Daniel Davis could well teeter the city into a violent oblivion. Daniel Davis, you see, has the answers.
It is a hall of mirrors — an offered solution to a problem perpetuated by the very people hoping to once again return to power. That this is a rotten sequel to the 2015 campaign, that the rhetoric and promises of more police on the ground are almost comically identical, that, to the extent Davis' insipid campaign can claim any level of substance, the substance actually suggests Davis has a bigger problem with Curry than he does his Democratic opponent, hardly seems to register as Davis earnestly prattles on about stuff we all heard eight years ago when The Big Problem was less of a big problem than it is today.....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/04/21/jacksonville-mayoral-campaign-is-a-bad-sequel-nate-monroe/70136987007/
Putting a bit too much meaning into these degree-apart criticisms of Curry.
Most voters don't follow local politics that closely. Curry is fine being the unspoken heel if it helps the candidate he prefers. The goal is to win, not be the most technically coherent. Everything in a Baker campaign is geared towards that: winning.
Deegan and Davis had another "debate" on WOKV. Below is the link to the broadcast streamed... starts at about 5:45 for some reason. A bit more freestyle and one-on-one vs. the televised debate so more heated and "entertaining." Less intervention of the "moderators" who let Deegan and Davis go toe-to-toe more.
My take:
Deegan hammered Davis on being a continuation of "establishment" politicians and their failures to address everyday citizen needs. She also hammered him on his negative ads and divisive campaign, even claiming police on the street were concerned with its impact. I think Davis was working extra hard to come across as relaxed and chill... trying to be a Mr. Nice guy to offset his negative image but he negated all that by not owning up to his negative campaign that we are all familiar with and that Deegan pounded him on. This followed a pattern of her being much more aggressive in asserting her positions than Davis. He mainly resorted to his usual platitudes and found himself more in a defensive, than offensive mode. Deegan does come across as knowledgeable about most every issue undercutting Davis's position that she lacks experience for the job. I also think Deegan succeeded in being open to new ways of doing business vs. Davis defending the status quo, reinforcing the theme of bringing change.
Lots of general promises from Davis but not much on how he would deliver or pay for them. Many of his answers seemed to circle back to addressing crime. Davis also promised an entertainment venue at the "Eastside" (codeword, Lot J again?) and an innovation corridor (codeword for U2C support?). Davis claimed "friendships" with the NEXT 4 State Senate AND State House speakers... that's going out over 8 years from now. I wonder how he can predict those elections for all those future years? With term limits and elections, who knows who will around for each such office election? Deegan needs to call him out on that claim for sure. I see a pattern of Davis simplistically taking exaggerated credit for anything positive and ignoring anything negative. Typical politician behavior. To add, he also thinks he can objectively negotiate a stadium deal with the Jags... really, given his backers and role in the establishment? Curry's endorsement of him is a proxy for Khan's in my opinion.
Listen to the discussion yourself and draw your own conclusions...
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1jMJgLEkEjOxL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1650831083993444352%7Ctwgr%5E64e907dad11aeab4fc06b2cb85923b03048da228%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jacksonville.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Felections%2Flocal%2F2023%2F04%2F25%2Fdonna-deegan-daniel-davis-debate-pension-jax-journey-in-heated-104-5-wokv-jacksonville-mayoral-forum%2F70147917007%2F
Davis has Little Lenny on Twitter accusing Deegan of being corrupt. Project much??
I posted the below on another thread but it also belongs here...
QuoteAlthough posters here may differ on the ultimate ways to address issues, at least we are thinking proactively, long term, creatively and with passion for the best interests of our community. All that is missing in most of our City leadership.
While maybe not perfect (who is?), I believe Donna Deegan comes closest to aligning with the views I see expressed on the Jaxson. If correct, I hope everyone turns out and exercises their right to vote for her.
Today, Matt Carlucci crossed party lines to endorse Deegan for the very reasons you have posted. As he notes, local politics should not be about party, but about who cares and can best lead this City forward. Like Carlucci, I think the choice is clear.
Here is more on Republican Matt Carlucci's endorsement this week of Donna Deegan, calling her a uniter, not a divider:
QuoteMatt Carlucci endorses Donna Deegan in Jacksonville mayor's race
Matt Carlucci dropped his own bid for mayor before his campaign really kicked in, but the moderate Republican said Donna Deegan has been running her campaign the same way he would have and that appeal to unity convinced him to endorse her.
"I've always said Jacksonville moves best when we move together, and I just think she's the best candidate to do that," Carlucci said....
....Carlucci said beyond agreeing with the local government issues Deegan is running on, he also decided to endorse her because he said she's run a positive campaign while Davis has tried to use Deegan's participation in Black Lives Matter rallies in 2020 to attack her in political ads.
Carlucci said that like Deegan, he attended peaceful Black Lives Matter marches that were joined by other City Council members, Mayor Lenny Curry and members of the Jaguars.
"To imply that she was part of radical behavior that happened hours and hour later, that's disingenuous and as a matter of fact, that's dishonest," Carlucci said.
Davis said at an April 20 mayoral debate moderated by Action News Jacksonville the Black Lives Matter ads are intended to show what happens in cities where "radical activists" are placed in charge of police departments....
....Carlucci said in local government office, party labels shouldn't matter and he expects Deegan would not govern as a partisan.
""It's about changing the culture of the governance of the city, and you can't do that when you're playing party politics because party politics divide," Carlucci said. "The message I like hearing from her is about uniting Jacksonville."...
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/04/27/donna-deegan-captures-endorsement-in-jacksonville-mayor-race/70153421007/
Looks like Daniel Davis is continuing to "duck and weave" regarding public appearances.
News4Jax and First Coast News are joining together to present a mayoral forum on May 3rd to be simulcast on both stations. Deegan has accepted, Davis has so far declined.
Great, Deegan will have two top media outlets all to herself for an hour leading up to the runoff. Wonder what that opportunity would cost a campaign to buy 8).
QuoteMayoral Candidate Forum to air on Channel 4 and First Coast News, May 3, 7 p.m.
Panel includes: Kent Justice of WJXT, Anthony Austin of First Coast News, Melissa Ross of WJCT 89.9 and Nate Monroe of the Florida Times Union
As the election approaches - next week, we are going to take a closer look at some of the issues that are most important to our city.
Join us Wednesday night, May 3 at 7:00 p.m. for our Vote 2023: Jacksonville Mayoral Candidate Forum, on Channel 4 and simulcast on First Coast News.
Kent Justice will be joined by a panel of local journalists to ask the questions that matter most to residents: Anthony Austin of First Coast News, Melissa Ross of WJCT 89.9 and Nate Monroe of the Florida Times Union.
Democrat Donna Deegan has confirmed she will participate. Republican Daniel Davis has so far, declined.
Again – that's Wednesday night, May 3 at 7:00 p.m. on Channel 4 and simulcast on First Coast News. And of course, you can catch it streaming on News4JAX.com and News4JAX+.
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/04/28/wjxt-news4jax-hosts-jacksonville-mayoral-candidate-forum-with-local-journalists/
I've never seen a candidate for an executive level position that is less interested in being seen or heard from than Davis. If he gets elected, is he going to have other people speak for him?
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 29, 2023, 12:54:36 AM
Looks like Daniel Davis is continuing to "duck and weave" regarding public appearances.
News4Jax and First Coast News are joining together to present a mayoral forum on May 3rd to be simulcast on both stations. Deegan has accepted, Davis has so far declined.
Great, Deegan will have two top media outlets all to herself for an hour leading up to the runoff. Wonder what that opportunity would cost a campaign to buy 8).
QuoteMayoral Candidate Forum to air on Channel 4 and First Coast News, May 3, 7 p.m.
Panel includes: Kent Justice of WJXT, Anthony Austin of First Coast News, Melissa Ross of WJCT 89.9 and Nate Monroe of the Florida Times Union
As the election approaches - next week, we are going to take a closer look at some of the issues that are most important to our city.
Join us Wednesday night, May 3 at 7:00 p.m. for our Vote 2023: Jacksonville Mayoral Candidate Forum, on Channel 4 and simulcast on First Coast News.
Kent Justice will be joined by a panel of local journalists to ask the questions that matter most to residents: Anthony Austin of First Coast News, Melissa Ross of WJCT 89.9 and Nate Monroe of the Florida Times Union.
Democrat Donna Deegan has confirmed she will participate. Republican Daniel Davis has so far, declined.
Again – that's Wednesday night, May 3 at 7:00 p.m. on Channel 4 and simulcast on First Coast News. And of course, you can catch it streaming on News4JAX.com and News4JAX+.
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/04/28/wjxt-news4jax-hosts-jacksonville-mayoral-candidate-forum-with-local-journalists/
More context: Davis had already publicized participating in a different public meeting at the same day/time, before this debate was scheduled:
https://twitter.com/DanielDavisFL/status/1651228475041218562
Funny how a debate was scheduled without seeing if both candidates were available, and when one isn't, little details like an already planned/publicized event get left out of the explanation....
Surely a coincidence!
And while I truly do love Ross and Monroe -they're invaluable to Jacksonville- they both have expressed obvious bias. Ross has misrepresented Davis's positions on air multiple times, Monroe has criticized Davis with great subjectivity more so than any other media member. Not exactly a warm welcome to participate.
All that said, yes, it'll be interesting to see if the selective nature of Davis's engagement will be successful. If it is, crown Baker and put him in the Campaign Hall of Fame. If not, will go down as a catastrophe.
Why wouldn't Ross and Monroe have an "obvious bias". Anyone watching Davis' ads and seeing him stammer in interviews and forums should be biased against this empty suit. Perhaps Ross and Monroe care about Jacksonville's future. The only people who could have a Davis bias are those who will benefit from his election, GOP diehards, and those who want to continue Curry's legacy. So far, and according to Davis' statements, I see the only reason to vote for Davis is his endorsement by T.K. Waters.
^Monroe is a columnist, not a reporter, for most of his writing. As such, he is supposed to have opinions, aka a bias, on issues. He generally backs them up with a solid foundation of factual information. Unfortunately, some people have trouble accepting those facts so they disagree with his take on them. However, Monroe's strength is he is usually hitting the nail on the head.
As a radio host of a public affairs program, Ross is generally down the middle. It is her job to point out differences people have with her guests to stir thoughtful debate and to see if her guests can convincingly back up their positions. She will also point out extreme views or behavior as out of the mainstream, uncivil, or just plain false. Often, the right-wing types won't accept her invitations to appear on her show so that may give it the appearance of "bias" but that's not on her, that's on those espousing such views. In this fashion, if Davis won't agree to be a guest to take on questions from Ross and her callers from the public, that's on him. Best I can tell, Deegan is always at the ready to take on such challenges.
Quote from: fsu813 on April 29, 2023, 04:00:06 PM
More context: Davis had already publicized participating in a different public meeting at the same day/time, before this debate was scheduled:
https://twitter.com/DanielDavisFL/status/1651228475041218562
Funny how a debate was scheduled without seeing if both candidates were available, and when one isn't, little details like an already planned/publicized event get left out of the explanation....
Surely a coincidence!
FSU, turns out Davis knew of this date all the way back in January. So what you say now? ;D
Quote....In a press release Monday, WJXT representatives said all candidates were told about the forum dates in January and formally invited Deegan and Davis after they advanced to the general election in March. Deegan accepted, but Davis declined repeatedly, the release said....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/05/01/ju-wjxt-to-host-third-televised-jacksonville-mayoral-debate/70169854007/
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 01, 2023, 11:33:30 PM
Quote from: fsu813 on April 29, 2023, 04:00:06 PM
More context: Davis had already publicized participating in a different public meeting at the same day/time, before this debate was scheduled:
https://twitter.com/DanielDavisFL/status/1651228475041218562
Funny how a debate was scheduled without seeing if both candidates were available, and when one isn't, little details like an already planned/publicized event get left out of the explanation....
Surely a coincidence!
FSU, turns out Davis knew of this date all the way back in January. So what you say now? ;D
Quote....In a press release Monday, WJXT representatives said all candidates were told about the forum dates in January and formally invited Deegan and Davis after they advanced to the general election in March. Deegan accepted, but Davis declined repeatedly, the release said....
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/05/01/ju-wjxt-to-host-third-televised-jacksonville-mayoral-debate/70169854007/
Have we learned nothing from the Transformers? If nothing else, there's always more than meets the eye.
Perhaps, say, the campaign wanted to see who was going to craft and ask the questions before committing.... ;)
I personally enjoy the "take all comers / go anywhere" approach to both politics and college football. But every coach has their own strategy to win... may the best team win.
Nat Glover comes forward to call out TK Water's nasty attack ads against Donna Deegan:
QuoteFormer Sheriff Nat Glover responds to TK Waters' attacks on Donna Deegan.
Public safety has been the leading theme of the Jacksonville mayoral race, and after weeks of attacks on Donna Deegan, a key defender has emerged.
Former Democratic Sheriff Nat Glover is speaking out in a new ad against the attack ads targeting Deegan.
"I do not endorse political candidates, but I must speak up when it comes to these attack ads against Donna Deegan designed to divide our community," Glover asserts, in a spot underwritten by the Saving Our City PC.
"We must rise above divisiveness," Glover adds. "Police accountability is essential. We all want safe schools and neighborhoods."
Glover said he would "not remain quiet and allow this city to go back to the 'us versus them' era," noting that "early voting has begun."...
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/609142-dueling-sheriffs-jax/
Mayoral "debate" on News4Jax and First Coast News begins now.
Did they have an empty chair?
An empty chair with a Brooks Brothers pullover
LOL. Deegan had a whole hour on three media outlets all to herself thanks to Davis's no-show. She fully answered every question, well informed and articulately, throughout. Compare her engagement, transparency and intellect with Davis and it's an easy choice for mayor.
Imagine having another mayor, like Curry, that hides from the public, divisively demonizes his/her critics, patronizes voters by telling people what they want to hear - not what he will really do, thinks he has all the answers without community input, relies on dark money from special interests that will control him and avoids any situation that might generate some controversy. That's not leadership - that's what keeps Jax from being the greatest city it could be.
See the full hour with Deegan here: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/05/03/deegan-faces-a-panel-of-local-journalists-in-televised-event-davis-attends-separate-untelevised-event-with-parents/
This couldn't have set up any better for Deegan. A former TV personality with an hour-long platform square in the middle of her comfort zone? No wonder it went well.
More than the content of the forum, though, I think what really hurts Davis here is the oft-repeated clarification that he couldn't be bothered to show up. As explained at the beginning of the forum, the date was communicated in January, with formal invitations to a debate on WJXT on May 3 extended after the runoff in March. When Davis declined, WJXT offered to change the date, and still Davis refused. Only after it became clear Davis wouldn't attend a debate did they change the format to a forum with panelists from multiple journalistic outlets (which, of course, they had to, because you can't have a one-candidate "debate"). I wonder if Davis' campaign team figured the debate would just be cancelled if he didn't accept.
It's a strange choice, because I thought Davis was actually decent on the WOKV forum -- more relaxed and less robotic than in the debate. Deegan won on substance, but as the R candidate, Davis doesn't need to win over any die-hard Deegan supporters -- he just needs R voters not to defect. A similar performance in this forum--where's he's more relaxed, off-the-cuff, and able to provide his same old tired talking points and pushback on Deegan's assertions--would have cut her platform time in half and eliminated the talking point of him dodging the debate. Deegan still would probably have given the more impressive performance, but Davis could've steered the conversation into a more party-line "D vs R" framing that serves his divisive campaign more effectively than substance-oriented debate.
A prime example of this missed opportunity: Deegan likely would not have been able to offer as much detail on how to pay for all of her specific proposals when asked. By reducing her time to answer, there would have been more vagueness for Davis to exploit by pushing the argument that Deegan will, in fact, have to raise taxes, or subjugate Jacksonville to the whims of the federal government for funding, or defund our police, etc. -- the kind of red meat that keeps R voters in line. Instead, Deegan got to offer a thorough explanation, assert without pushback that she won't raise taxes, and lay out a plan that could win over an independent or open-minded R voter (yes, they do exist!).
Deegan deserves credit for running a generally positive campaign. It has to be tempting to send out mailers that ask, "Where's Danny? If he won't show up to campaign, he won't show up to do the job!"
TL;DR: Davis needs this race to be about Republican vs. Democrat to motivate his voters, and his failure to show up gifted Deegan a chance to prove how little party affiliation impacts the job of governing a city.
The Daily Record dropped a Q&A with Daniel Davis (held the same day as the forum) overnight.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/may/05/qa-with-mayoral-candidate-daniel-davis-more-autonomy-for-the-dia-incentives-strategy-and-more/
So, he's going to reduce non-police staffing,
Quote
I do feel confident that we don't need to add new employees to City Hall either. So that's going to be something that we're going to be very focused on, making sure that we run efficiently and that we keep government smaller and get more of the taxpayer dollars on the street.
yet reduce the time needed to get permits while not eliminating important steps?
Quote
Not only our permitting department, but I believe we should make this process of a yes or no quicker. That doesn't mean you skip steps. ... And that's a vision of mine is to make sure that we make the process easier.
And then you have to go through the permitting department, which oftentimes takes over a year to get permits and get your project out of the ground. That's not acceptable.
Maybe the "privatization" shell game? Contract out inspections and the like?
Quote
I think that there are private-sector solutions to some of the issues.
I say "shell game" because some agencies have found they pay more when the outsource activities that were historically in-house.
The thing is some of the answers are fairly reasonable, but I think they're a little out of touch
- Giving DIA more autonomy sounds great except their backbone is questionable at best.
- Moving the jail is fine, depending on what you do with the property, but I question the cost/benefit there
- I do agree that the development streamlining is needed, but I'm curious how he plans to do that.
- All of these answers lack some specifics.
The bigger problem is at this point I don't fully trust either of them, but I trust Davis a little less. I feel like he's completely controlled by the Curry group and that's a problem for me.
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 05, 2023, 08:58:30 AM
yet reduce the time needed to get permits while not eliminating important steps?
Interesting that the current Mayor takes exception to Deegan's claims that permitting takes too long....and his chosen candidate says the same thing
Quote from: tufsu1 on May 05, 2023, 02:26:51 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 05, 2023, 08:58:30 AM
yet reduce the time needed to get permits while not eliminating important steps?
Interesting that the current Mayor takes exception to Deegan's claims that permitting takes too long....and his chosen candidate says the same thing
From what I can tell, not so much the permitting process as the City's staffing of the Building Department is more a player in permitting delays. Davis says he wants to downsize City government but his development backers won't be happy if he skinnies down their favorite department even more than now. Is he going to shrink all the other departments and benefit his developer backers by only increasing the Building Dept.?
And, "streamlining the permitting process" and expediting DIA decisions... really? It would appear to me we already lay down plenty for developers. Maybe we have the opposite problem... the City doesn't invest enough in thoughtful visioning, planning, etc. and discipling the process. Zoning, building standards such as setbacks, aesthetic design, land use, protection of environment and historic structures... all a joke here. Add, incentives are out of control due to "rushed" decisions, not because they take too long. How much more developer friendly does City Hall need to be? Top reason to fear a Davis administration.
Just look at Davis's career... head of the Northeast Florida Builders Association and Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce... along with his donor class to see who "owns" him.
Deegan responds to new hypocritical, false, mean-spirited and sleazy new Davis ad attacking her nonprofit cancer foundation:
QuoteAttacks on Donna Deegan don't tell the whole story, as Daniel Davis benefited also.
Jacksonville mayoral candidate Donna Deegan is speaking out against a new ad against her in the race for mayor.
"This attack ad is dirty politics as usual, and the type of desperate behavior we see time and time again from candidates who are losing this close to an election. They lie, smear, and distort the truth to distract from their own records," said Deegan, who also addressed the ad in a video on Twitter.
The spot accused Deegan of taking "hundreds of thousands of dollars of COVID money," with her DONNA Foundation continuing to work through the pandemic, which actually saw a 78% uptick in call volume in the months after COVID-19 and mitigation strategies changed society.
While Deegan's outfit properly programmed the money, she notes that her opponent's organization benefited from pandemic funding much more than the Foundation and its breast cancer patients.
"But the facts speak for themselves, and the truth is this: Daniel Davis receives a $536,464-a-year taxpayer-funded salary at the JAX Chamber of Commerce, which took $900,000 in federal PPP loans that were ultimately forgiven after the Covid-19 pandemic," Deegan notes.
"This is exactly why we need change in Jacksonville. People are tired and fed up with the same old politicians who have repeatedly failed our city and its residents. It's time to turn the page to a new day once and for all. It's time to reject the negativity and division and demand leadership that unites and creates positive change in Jacksonville. Change for good," Deegan adds.
Interestingly, Davis himself has been mute on these issues, leaving it to Mayor Lenny Curry to go on the attack.
"Decrying 'corruption' & 'cronyism' tends to fall flat when the proof is in the payment. As the head of an org that benefited from these funds, when a family member was council prez, you would think disqualifies you from 'taking a stand.' Looks more like you took the money & ran."
The General Election is May 16.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/610418-pandemic-funding-weaponized-in-jacksonville-mayors-race/
Republican District 14 Councilmember Randy Defoor endorses Deegan.
Quote
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men [and women] do nothing. I simply cannot do nothing in the face of what I believe to be a serious threat to this city that we love. I am known to be direct, so let me be so now. The simple facts are these: How you run a campaign is reflective of how you will govern. If that is true, Daniel Davis' campaign has shown clearly who he is and who and what values will be guiding him in the future. I believe that 4, potentially 8 more years of that kind of thuggery shown in the campaign will wreak havoc on our city. No one can be safe, or prosper in a city run with Chicago-style rules, and the truth goes out the window. Worse he and his handlers seek to divide us, neighbor against neighbor. Donna Deegan and I do not agree on some issues, but I know her heart, and she loves our city and would not make a move that would harm her home. Like my family, she is a multi-generation Jacksonville native. She is honest. And right now that is more important than anything else. I urge everyone to pause and ponder the issue of honesty before they vote."
— Randy DeFoor
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/randy-defoor-endorses-donna-deegan-jacksonville-mayor-over-opponents-tactics/UJCJGR57ZRDI7PNEHHHAQTW3JE/
^ great news and her assessment is spot on - I'm still holding out hope that Cumber does as well
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 10, 2023, 09:48:55 AM
Republican District 14 Councilmember Randy Defoor endorses Deegan.
Quote
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men [and women] do nothing. I simply cannot do nothing in the face of what I believe to be a serious threat to this city that we love. I am known to be direct, so let me be so now. The simple facts are these: How you run a campaign is reflective of how you will govern. If that is true, Daniel Davis' campaign has shown clearly who he is and who and what values will be guiding him in the future. I believe that 4, potentially 8 more years of that kind of thuggery shown in the campaign will wreak havoc on our city. No one can be safe, or prosper in a city run with Chicago-style rules, and the truth goes out the window. Worse he and his handlers seek to divide us, neighbor against neighbor. Donna Deegan and I do not agree on some issues, but I know her heart, and she loves our city and would not make a move that would harm her home. Like my family, she is a multi-generation Jacksonville native. She is honest. And right now that is more important than anything else. I urge everyone to pause and ponder the issue of honesty before they vote."
— Randy DeFoor
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/randy-defoor-endorses-donna-deegan-jacksonville-mayor-over-opponents-tactics/UJCJGR57ZRDI7PNEHHHAQTW3JE/
DeFoor has been incredibly important and is typically thoughtful and thorough. But on this.....mmm....didn't she endorse Cumber, as well? Cumber's campaign was just as divisive and negative as Davis's, and far less successful. Strange that now, only weeks later, she's totally -gasp!- against such negative campaigning.
Gotta love politics.
Quote from: fsu813 on May 10, 2023, 10:44:20 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 10, 2023, 09:48:55 AM
Republican District 14 Councilmember Randy Defoor endorses Deegan.
Quote
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men [and women] do nothing. I simply cannot do nothing in the face of what I believe to be a serious threat to this city that we love. I am known to be direct, so let me be so now. The simple facts are these: How you run a campaign is reflective of how you will govern. If that is true, Daniel Davis' campaign has shown clearly who he is and who and what values will be guiding him in the future. I believe that 4, potentially 8 more years of that kind of thuggery shown in the campaign will wreak havoc on our city. No one can be safe, or prosper in a city run with Chicago-style rules, and the truth goes out the window. Worse he and his handlers seek to divide us, neighbor against neighbor. Donna Deegan and I do not agree on some issues, but I know her heart, and she loves our city and would not make a move that would harm her home. Like my family, she is a multi-generation Jacksonville native. She is honest. And right now that is more important than anything else. I urge everyone to pause and ponder the issue of honesty before they vote."
— Randy DeFoor
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/randy-defoor-endorses-donna-deegan-jacksonville-mayor-over-opponents-tactics/UJCJGR57ZRDI7PNEHHHAQTW3JE/
DeFoor has been incredibly important and is typically thoughtful and thorough. But on this.....mmm....didn't she endorse Cumber, as well? Cumber's campaign was just as divisive and negative as Davis's, and far less successful. Strange that now, only weeks later, she's totally -gasp!- against such negative campaigning.
Gotta love politics.
DeFoor's statement mostly talked about the old boy crony politics of the Davis campaign, and the negative attacks are just part of that. Cumber was also negative but she wasn't part of the machine.
Quote from: fsu813 on May 10, 2023, 10:44:20 PM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 10, 2023, 09:48:55 AM
Republican District 14 Councilmember Randy Defoor endorses Deegan.
Quote
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men [and women] do nothing. I simply cannot do nothing in the face of what I believe to be a serious threat to this city that we love. I am known to be direct, so let me be so now. The simple facts are these: How you run a campaign is reflective of how you will govern. If that is true, Daniel Davis' campaign has shown clearly who he is and who and what values will be guiding him in the future. I believe that 4, potentially 8 more years of that kind of thuggery shown in the campaign will wreak havoc on our city. No one can be safe, or prosper in a city run with Chicago-style rules, and the truth goes out the window. Worse he and his handlers seek to divide us, neighbor against neighbor. Donna Deegan and I do not agree on some issues, but I know her heart, and she loves our city and would not make a move that would harm her home. Like my family, she is a multi-generation Jacksonville native. She is honest. And right now that is more important than anything else. I urge everyone to pause and ponder the issue of honesty before they vote."
— Randy DeFoor
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/randy-defoor-endorses-donna-deegan-jacksonville-mayor-over-opponents-tactics/UJCJGR57ZRDI7PNEHHHAQTW3JE/
DeFoor has been incredibly important and is typically thoughtful and thorough. But on this.....mmm....didn't she endorse Cumber, as well? Cumber's campaign was just as divisive and negative as Davis's, and far less successful. Strange that now, only weeks later, she's totally -gasp!- against such negative campaigning.
Gotta love politics.
As I recall, Cumber turned more negative when Davis & Co. (i.e. his allies on the City Council) viscously attacked her and her family. Unfortunately, that drained resources she could, and maybe should, have use to run a more positive campaign. But, it must be hard to ignore such attacks when they get so personal. While I didn't align with all of Cumber's vision, I would have taken her over Davis anytime.
Deegan has tried hard to not fall into the same trap, trying to better balance pushing back on Davis's lies about her involvement with Black Lives Matter, defunding the police and now about her charitable foundation, while putting forward her vision and desire to represent all of Jacksonville, not just the special interests.
Davis's campaign is taking its cue directly from Trump and DeSantis: Distort the truth or just plain lie over and over and across many fronts to overwhelm your opponents ability to rebut. Character counts before your position on issues. Hope the voters recognize that going forward.
More endorsements for Deegan including at least 2 more Republicans:
QuoteJacksonville mayoral candidate Donna Deegan touts bipartisan endorsements
Democratic candidate for Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan is rolling out endorsements from two Republicans and one Democrat who previously served on the City Council.
Former Council Presidents Scott Wilson (Republican) and Eric Smith (Democrat) are joined by Suzanne Jenkins, a former Republican member of the Council, in endorsements Deegan says point to "broad support from leaders across the political spectrum."
"We share a common belief that Jacksonville needs a problem solver, not a power seeker, and that change is needed in City Hall. It's time to unify and bring an end to the division and fear tactics that are hurting our city," Deegan said.
"I am also sick and tired of the divisive and negative attack ads by one group in Jacksonville. While I do not always agree with Donna Deegan, I do appreciate and respect her willingness to show up and face the difficult questions," Wilson said.
"If a candidate won't answer your questions today, what makes you think they will do so after they assume office? I encourage citizens, especially my fellow Republicans, to carefully evaluate your choices and consider joining me in voting for Donna Deegan."
"As a City Councilman who worked with 5 mayors, I know the qualities of a good mayor. Donna will bring fresh air, new integrity and vision to the mayor's office," Smith added.
Jenkins also added remarks in the Thursday release.
"For too long, Jacksonville has run under a 'business as usual' mindset that leaves so many of our residents behind. It's time for our city to unite behind a leader who is committed to transparency, equity, and growth for the future that works for all, not just a select few," Jenkins said. "I believe that leader is Donna Deegan, and I am proud to endorse her to be the next mayor of Jacksonville at a time in which we desperately need positive change."
Early voting extends through Sunday in the race between Deegan and Republican Daniel Davis, and Democrats are nearing a +4 advantage in early voting and mail combined, with Republicans likely to dominate Election Day turnout as usual.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/611580-jax-mayoral-candidate-donna-deegan-rolls-out-bipartisan-endorsements/
The Daily Record has now also conducted an interview with Donna Deegan.
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/may/12/qa-with-mayoral-candidate-donna-deegan/
Within less than an hour of the polls closing, news outlets have begun to project that Donna Deegan will be the 9th Mayor of Jacksonville. With a nearly four-point lead, it does not appear that outstanding votes are available for Daniel Davis to close that gap.
Results from the Duval County Supervisor of Elections are available here (https://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/Summary/3385/).
It's a good night
That Jason Fischer dude is going to lose after pumping God knows how much into a property appraiser race.
Great night indeed!
The new day many of us Jaxson posters have been dreaming of. She needs to clean out City Hall and most of the Boards and Commissions of all the "good ol' boys and girls" and turn this City back over to all of its citizens for the first time in a very long time.
Hope the Republican City Council and DeSantis don't muck up things but some may try. Citizens need to be on guard!
And, yes, Fischer hopefully fades away never to be heard from again. We can only be so lucky.
Lastly, maybe Tim Baker, Susie Wiles and Brian Hughes take their nasty and mean spirited way of doing things and go play somewhere else.
Quote from: fsquid on May 16, 2023, 08:12:44 PM
That Jason Fischer dude is going to lose after pumping God knows how much into a property appraiser race.
More good news. It was pretty clear he had no understanding of the job. And his "law and order candidate" nonsense was laughable. I guess it takes more than a photo of you with DeSantis to win.
Historic night for the city.
Regardless of your choice for mayor, it's hard to not recognize just how little Davis did to help his cause these last six months.
From the poor showing in the one debate he participated in, to the refusal to engage with the press, to the nasty campaign tactics, to the petulant threats against local news stations for airing negative ads against him.
Hoping this leads to some major shakeups across city agencies.
Quote from: pierre on May 16, 2023, 08:44:53 PM
Quote from: fsquid on May 16, 2023, 08:12:44 PM
That Jason Fischer dude is going to lose after pumping God knows how much into a property appraiser race.
More good news. It was pretty clear he had no understanding of the job. And his "law and order candidate" nonsense was laughable. I guess it takes more than a photo of you with DeSantis to win.
yes never got the whole TK Water's endorsement he ran on.
"Um, Kari Lake? You and your campaign managers taking notes?"
-Mayor Donna Deegan ;D
Quote from: fsquid on May 16, 2023, 08:12:44 PM
That Jason Fischer dude is going to lose after pumping God knows how much into a property appraiser race.
Money can't necessarily buy or overcome decent name recognition. Morgan had him beat by miles on that one.
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
Precinct level results and turnout here. Urban core carried Deegan despite lower turnout (e.g. 17% vs. 55+% in some Republican strongholds). If Dem's would show up more, they could sweep this city away.
https://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/3385/Map/ContestResults/48843/
Meanwhile, the election made national headlines on Google News, NBC, CBS, CNN... . Here is a sample:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrat-donna-deegan-flips-jacksonville-mayors-office-major-upset-rcna84791
The best campaign definitely won!
Wish Deegan much success as she works to improve our city.
There is happiness in our house today. No Daniel Davis or Jason Fischer. Hope for Jacksonville.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2023, 10:29:59 PM
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:
- Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
- On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
- Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
-The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
- Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
- With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.
Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.
My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 08:39:05 PM
Lastly, maybe Tim Baker, Susie Wiles and Brian Hughes take their nasty and mean spirited way of doing things and go play somewhere else.
Preach - that would be wonderful.
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 08:29:28 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2023, 10:29:59 PM
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months.
I agree that we're (Jax/Duval County) purple. Gillum and Biden also won here in recent years. That's one of the big things I try to explain to people outside of Florida about our politics. Duval is becoming more ethnically and politically diverse each year. It will be interesting to see how campaign strategy addresses these demographic shifts in future elections.
Now that Donna has won, are we assuming the move jail talk will hit an extended delay and the Confederate monuments are gone?
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 17, 2023, 11:09:13 AM
Now that Donna has won, are we assuming the move jail talk will hit an extended delay and the Confederate monuments are gone?
I think Deegan will start the plans into motion on the Jail. To the point earlier about the "why" behind it, the Sheriff is pushing it and I doubt he's got a vested interest if the site becomes a convention center. But I think it takes a more logical timeline.
I think she'd need council to act on the monuments if I recall correctly. So thay may not happen soon.
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 08:29:28 AM
Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
This was a waste of money of an attack to me. Maybe this is something to Davis' base but it was likely seen as a positive to 50% of the community. It's like people forget this city is literally purple. I'm not sure that parading the sheriff around like a Black show pony was effective either.
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 11:10:07 AM
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.
Definitely agree. Fischer was horrible and has always been, Hogan was way to conservative for Jax and Crist......I still can't believe he was offered up as a candidate.
The Dem wins made the news aggregator CrowdPac News, via Politico, under the headline:
Dems beat DeSantis-endorsed candidate in Florida's biggest city
https://www.crowdpac.com/news/663860
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 08:29:28 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2023, 10:29:59 PM
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:
- Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
- On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
- Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
-The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
- Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
- With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.
Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.
My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).
Well said. I think it's also important to realize how beloved Donna is in Jacksonville. Born and raised in Jax and was THE go to news anchor for a long time, back when people used to watch local news. The Donna Foundation and 26.2 With Donna show that her heart is in the right place and she has built a ton of goodwill in the community. Without looking at the numbers, I would guess she did better than usual at The Beaches, which is usually very red. Her and Tim are both very visible and beloved around there.
I think the race was definitely somewhat of an indictment on Curry/Davis, but I think the ultimate factor was Donna's lovability.
I went on a rant in this thread a year or two ago about how I don't think it is wise to elect someone with no experience managing or operating in local government; and still think that is true....but if anyone can make it work, she can. Hopefully she surrounds herself with the right people and is relatively moderate.
There will be some in national politics and media pushing her very hard to fight Desantis and knock him back if he decides to run for President. She will no doubt get made very appealing promises (maybe already has). I just hope she is focused on uniting and making Jax a better place, and not getting sidetracked with the Desantis stuff.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 17, 2023, 11:17:20 AM
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 11:10:07 AM
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.
Definitely agree. Fischer was horrible and has always been, Hogan was way to conservative for Jax and Crist......I still can't believe he was offered up as a candidate.
Agreed with this. After all my b****ing about the guy, I did end up voting for Davis. A trusted source gave me some insights I was not even thinking about and I just couldn't get on board with Donna's overall agenda. I held my nose while I did it, but I did vote for him.
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items. That's my hope.
Most importantly, I hope she is a mayor for all the people - that is presumably why she got the vote as Daniel didn't present himself well as a mayor for all people. He really was a weak candidate and he chose a vicious campaign manager that I'm sure at the end of the day was a predominant reason why some consistent republicans I know voted for Donna this time.
Quote from: simms3 on May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items. That's my hope.
Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council. Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else? Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades? Just trying to understand another point of view 8).
Quote from: CityLife on May 17, 2023, 12:35:06 PM
Quote from: Steve on May 17, 2023, 08:29:28 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on May 16, 2023, 10:29:59 PM
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:
- Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
- On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
- Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
-The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
- Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
- With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.
Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.
My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).
Well said. I think it's also important to realize how beloved Donna is in Jacksonville. Born and raised in Jax and was THE go to news anchor for a long time, back when people used to watch local news. The Donna Foundation and 26.2 With Donna show that her heart is in the right place and she has built a ton of goodwill in the community. Without looking at the numbers, I would guess she did better than usual at The Beaches, which is usually very red. Her and Tim are both very visible and beloved around there.
I think the race was definitely somewhat of an indictment on Curry/Davis, but I think the ultimate factor was Donna's lovability.
Being on TV forever is 10000% why she won and I'm surprised anybody thinks otherwise. Being a Hazouri doesn't hurt either
^ Dr. Oz was on TV "forever" and he still lost. I think there is more to a candidate winning or losing than just being on TV. No doubt, TV gives instant name recognition but you still need to back it up with something more to get the majority of votes. Though, seeing how so many people "blindly" vote today, that may be a low bar ;D.
In Deegan's case, she won a hard fought race with low Democrat turnout. Republicans and independents that gave her the margin of victory would be the least likely to vote for her because she was on TV so I don't see how you can credit TV with her ultimate victory.
I ran into the "TV Star" argument at church. From the people making the argument, it seems the reasons they subscribe to the TV Star trope to explain why they are unhappy their DeSantisite candidate lost may include (order may vary):
1. She was a TV personality for many years.
2. She is a woman - can't have a woman running a city
3. She is a Democrat
4. She is not a Trump/DeSantis acolyte (there are women, some registered Democrats, who fit this)
5. Her personal (and ancient) family history
Just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.
I think it was Davis' election to lose.. and he upset a pretty strong base of his by going after LeAnna & then Deegan the way he did. I think LeAnna especially, had a pretty active base that mostly switched to Deegan for the runoff.. considering her more moderate stance on things anyway. I think being a TV star gets the ball rolling, but certainly Davis did more harm to himself than good imo.
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?
Quote from: simms3 on May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM
After all my b****ing about the guy, I did end up voting for Davis.
Shocker of the year.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2023, 01:06:41 PM
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?
It definitely helped, along with Fischer not being especially well liked by a segment of Republicans. He performed better than Davis and Morgan didn't perform as well as Donna, but not enough to change the outcome.
In contrast, Chris Miller in the at-large race got 112,641 votes, nearly as much as Donna. In that case, Miller didn't have as much of baggage stuck to him as Davis and Fischer, and his opponent didn't have the name recognition or funding of Donna and Morgan (he's an equally stand up guy, though).
That is to say, local Democrats have been off their game for so long that they don't have many people with wide name recognition, but when it happens, folks respond. Especially when their opponents hurt themselves with nasty campaigns, avoiding the public, far-right overtures, etc.
QuoteThere will be some in national politics and media pushing her very hard to fight Desantis and knock him back if he decides to run for President. She will no doubt get made very appealing promises (maybe already has). I just hope she is focused on uniting and making Jax a better place, and not getting sidetracked with the Desantis stuff.
1. DeSantis is definitely running
2. There would be literally ZERO upside for Deegan to do this.
3. It is rare for a Mayor to get directly involved in Presidential politics, unless they themselves are a candidate.
3. The FL Democratic party is too disorganized and weak to offer her anything in the way of support.
4. Even if the FL Dem. party were a force to be reckoned with, Deegan would not be running against DeSantis in the future because he is term limited. He can't run for Senate because the GOP already holds both seats. If Rubio were to retire it wouldn't be until the 2028 cycle
5. Tampa, St Petersburg, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando all have D mayors and hail from larger Metros, so Deegan is not a unicorn.
6. I don't recall such pressure on Alvin Brown from national entities when he was Mayor, and his win was an upset too.
In executive level races since 2018, Duval has voted for the Dem candidate by around 4% in 3 out of 4 of those races (not including 2019 since there was no Dem challenger). While there was a higher amount of Republican crossover in this mayor's race, I think there's a clear trend in the city that shouldn't be overlooked. 2022 seems to be an outlier as Democratic turnout was 16% lower than Republican turnout.
Jacksonville is a city that leans slightly blue at the top of the ticket and slightly red for down-ballot races. Should demographic and political changes continue, it's only a matter of time before those lower level races begin to start going blue as well.
District 11 (Southside, Bartram) has been moving left every election since 2016 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Dem win outright in the next few years. After several close results, Oceanway has had it's first precinct go blue as it continues to experience an influx of young, diverse families. Same for several Northside and Westside precincts. For those that have been paying attention, this election result should come as no surprise. Duval isn't a lock for Republicans like it used to be and the high-rate of growth across the county is only speeding up those changes
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 17, 2023, 06:10:50 PM
Quote from: simms3 on May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items. That's my hope.
Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council. Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else? Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades? Just trying to understand another point of view 8).
I was about to ask this same thing, knowing full well his response will be full-on NEWSMAX/FOX gibberish. He actually use to be an independent thinker that saw through that kind of stuff.
This is a little long but is a very good top to bottom analysis of all the Countywide races. Well worth the time to read.
https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-108-jacksonville-gives-democrats?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=357835&post_id=122151993&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email (https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-108-jacksonville-gives-democrats?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=357835&post_id=122151993&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email)
Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2023, 01:06:41 PM
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?
I am sure it helped. But also helped by Fischer being a really bad candidate.
When he ran for Congress (very briefly) last year, he had an ad where his parents were more a focal point than he was. And in this race, he made it more about DeSantis than himself. He came across as incredibly weak and unlikable. And whenever he spoke about the property appraiser job, he didn't seem to have an understanding on what the job does. At least once being corrected by Jerry Holland on Twitter. And he lost. I'm not sure what else is left for him to run for. I'm sure he'll pop up in some city council or school board race at some point.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 17, 2023, 06:10:50 PM
Quote from: simms3 on May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items. That's my hope.
Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council. Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else? Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades? Just trying to understand another point of view 8).
Well, lots of hot air there. Not sure how to respond or if I should even try...
Quote from: vicupstate on May 18, 2023, 02:49:39 PM
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 17, 2023, 06:10:50 PM
Quote from: simms3 on May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items. That's my hope.
Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council. Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else? Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades? Just trying to understand another point of view 8).
I was about to ask this same thing, knowing full well his response will be full-on NEWSMAX/FOX gibberish. He actually use to be an independent thinker that saw through that kind of stuff.
I would say...on this site alone among forum members you're pretty much in the echo chamber and I'm the "independent thinker". This argument doesn't really work. You follow a progressive mantra and I follow a conservative mantra. These are our individual philosophies based on whatever. I would like to think we still agree on certain things. I want better parks and better transit that isn't a stupid waste of taxpayer money (the U2C). I didn't want the Ford Plant to be demolished and I can't wait for the Laura St Trio to be completed someday. But sure, my politics is different from yours. I would say that you're a lot more vicious than I am and I don't see us being friends in real life. But that isn't to say we probably have things we agree on.
If I spit back out "urban intellectual" talking points regurgitated over and over again in The Atlantic magazine, you and I would simply be "agreeing". But because I say things you assume are Fox News or Newsmax gibberish (and some of that is, I undoubtedly agree with a guy named Rob Schmitt or Eric Higby on Newsmax and I do love Tucker), I'm no longer an independent thinker but simply a regurgitator.
It's rare for people to have truly independent thoughts as we listen to others and combine what we hear from others into our own thoughts. Your sources/influences and my sources/influences are different and that is ok. I'll stick to mine and hope that you "see the light" one day, and I'm sure you're sitting over there saying the same thing.
Quote from: vicupstate on May 18, 2023, 02:56:33 PM
This is a little long but is a very good top to bottom analysis of all the Countywide races. Well worth the time to read.
https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-108-jacksonville-gives-democrats?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=357835&post_id=122151993&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email (https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-108-jacksonville-gives-democrats?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=357835&post_id=122151993&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email)
Thanks for posting this link. There's a lot of good analysis in this.
Deegan prioritizing more police officers and including two former LEOs in her transition team is a great first step to show she intends to keep her campaign promises and it wasn't all empty talk to win over moderate independents and Republicans.
Can't wait to see this budget and what the rest of the priorities will shake out to be. I imagine she'll stay pretty true to her word, because she'll likely need a bipartisan coalition for re-election even if the R edge in Duval is becoming thinner.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 25, 2023, 06:17:23 PM
Deegan prioritizing more police officers and including two former LEOs in her transition team is a great first step to show she intends to keep her campaign promises and it wasn't all empty talk to win over moderate independents and Republicans.
Can't wait to see this budget and what the rest of the priorities will shake out to be. I imagine she'll stay pretty true to her word, because she'll likely need a bipartisan coalition for re-election even if the R edge in Duval is becoming thinner.
Burton, Glover, Gay, Delaney, Miller, Smith.
Great to see quality leaders in a position to influence the administration.
Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 25, 2023, 06:17:23 PM
Deegan prioritizing more police officers and including two former LEOs in her transition team is a great first step to show she intends to keep her campaign promises and it wasn't all empty talk to win over moderate independents and Republicans.
Can't wait to see this budget and what the rest of the priorities will shake out to be. I imagine she'll stay pretty true to her word, because she'll likely need a bipartisan coalition for re-election even if the R edge in Duval is becoming thinner.
Well, what did Alvin Brown in was his handling of finances. He was also lukewarm when it came to a few social issues that the democrats are pretty passionate about, which led to lagging support from his own party. Deegan is definitely off to a good start here.
Brown shaked hands and kissed babies for four years. He never really got into (or was able to accomplish) the niddy griddy of what he campaigned on. Deegan will be a success as long as her team can deliver on what they campaigned. A bipartisan team to address the city's true challenges and opportunities is a good start.
Donna's staff starting to fill out.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/618291-donna-deegan-brings-familiar-names-into-administration-leadership/
Such a refreshing change from the good ol' boys.
Anna Brosche as CFO will surely ruffle some establishment feathers.
and Lekeesha Burton will ruffle T.K.'s feathers
Quote from: Ken_FSU on June 14, 2023, 01:40:40 PM
Donna's staff starting to fill out.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/618291-donna-deegan-brings-familiar-names-into-administration-leadership/
Such a refreshing change from the good ol' boys.
Anna Brosche as CFO will surely ruffle some establishment feathers.
Will be interesting to see what changes might come to DIA, Public Works and the Planning Department. Seems these are all ripe for fresh blood.
Interesting to see Melissa Ross is also joining Deegan's team. She certainly has a feel for what's on citizen's minds after 14 years hosting First Coast Connect.
Quote from: Ken_FSU on June 14, 2023, 01:40:40 PM
Anna Brosche as CFO will surely ruffle some establishment feathers.
Yes, I'm sure.
Nevertheless, they loss and that's the name of the game in that political world.
They'll be fine. It's not like the establishment hasn't ruffled other's feathers before.
Quote from: thelakelander on June 14, 2023, 06:58:12 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on June 14, 2023, 01:40:40 PM
Anna Brosche as CFO will surely ruffle some establishment feathers.
Yes, I'm sure.
Nevertheless, they loss and that's the name of the game in that political world.
They'll be fine. It's not like the establishment hasn't ruffled other's feathers before.
Deegan, as promised, looks to be working hard to be inclusive and, in so doing, has acknowledged establishment concerns to some degree. The expected change is that the establishment will have to wait in line at the trough just like John Q. Citizen and can't move to the front to clean it out leaving nothing for everyone else ;D.
Feel like the outgoing administration has been remarkably amicable with the incoming one so far. Maybe that's not Curry's decision, or they're just trying to get the hell out of there without too much fanfare, but it's kinda nice.
Somewhat surprised that Melissa Ross is choosing to leave radio after all this time to join, but it's interesting. Including her, lot of exciting names involved here. Obviously their performance isn't a guarantee, but I'm looking forward to seeing what they do, and this team seems as likely as any to hit the ground running.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 14, 2023, 03:00:46 PM
Will be interesting to see what changes might come to DIA, Public Works and the Planning Department. Seems these are all ripe for fresh blood.
Strong leadership in those areas could go a
long way. Especially with Deegan's vision of striving for more grant funding. Her administration probably has a better shot than any in recent history at landing a lot of federal money if they work for it, which is important with that funding being for a limited time.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 14, 2023, 03:00:46 PM
Will be interesting to see what changes might come to DIA, Public Works and the Planning Department. Seems these are all ripe for fresh blood.
Well, it looks like Boyer may be hanging in there for at least another year. I hope Deegan can bring her back from the "dark side." ;D
QuoteDIA board extends CEO Lori Boyer's contract one year with a $10,400 raise
She will continue to lead the Downtown Investment Authority with a salary increase to $221,550.
Downtown Investment Authority CEO Lori Boyer will lead the city agency through at least June 2024 with a $10,400 pay bump.
The DIA board voted unanimously June 21 to extend Boyer's employment contract and increase her annual salary 4.8% from $211,150 to $221,550.
This is the second of two extension options in Boyer's contract first approved by the board when she was hired as CEO in June 2019.
The salary increase is contingent on City Council's approval of DIA's fiscal year 2023-24 budget, which will be up for debate and a vote in September as part of the annual city budget process.
The board awarded her first one-year contract extension in June 2022.
She received a 5.4% pay raise in 2022 from $200,000 to $211,115.
Boyer received her first pay raise as CEO in June 2021 with a $20,000 bump when the board agreed to amend her contract.
She was named the DIA CEO after serving two terms as a Council member representing District 5, which includes San Marco and the Downtown Southbank.
During her time leading DIA, Boyer led an update to Downtown's Business Investment and Development and Northbank and Southbank Community Redevelopment Area Plans.
She also helped negotiate $129.75 million in public incentives for Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan's estimated $387.6 million Four Seasons hotel-anchored Shipyards development near TIAA Bank Field, among other new developments and adaptive reuse projects of existing Downtown buildings.
Since 2020, Boyer has helped coordinate plans for an interconnected Downtown riverfront park system.
Boyer was selected four years ago after a national search over two other candidates from outside Jacksonville.
She replaced interim CEO Brian Hughes, who filled the position for several months after former DIA CEO Aundra Wallace left to become president of JAXUSA Partnership, the economic development division of JAX Chamber.
It's official!... Mayor Donna Deegan.
Installation ceremony in front of about 1,000 people was also carried live on WJXT. It was well done - heartfelt, moving, humorous, spiritual and unifying in spirit - refreshing for a politically oriented event. Off to a great start and hope she can deliver on even half of her hopes for the City.
Ever wonder what happened to former mayor, Lenny Curry ;D? He went where many politico's go to pasture, as a lobbyist. Would be interesting to see how their clients were treated when he was mayor.
Not sure, but I believe the City has some ethical standards regarding former officials lobbying the City or working for companies having relationships with the City. Would be interested in how this dovetails with that.
Former Mayor Lenny Curry joins Ballard Partners
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/17/former-mayor-lenny-curry-joins-ballard-partners/
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/07/17/new-mayor-donna-deegan-presents-17b-budget-to-city-council/
From the Jacksonville Ordinance Code, Ethics sections
Section 602.408 Prohibits APPOINTED City officials (including Boards, Commissions, and Authorities) who were required to file "Form 1 Financial Disclosures" from lobbying the City (etc.) for a period of 2 years. So this doesn't seem to apply to the elected Mayor or Council.
Section 602.411 seems like it might apply here.
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602.411 Disqualification of former officers and employees in matters connected with former duties or official responsibilities; disqualification of partners.
(a) It shall be a violation of this Chapter for any person, who was an officer or employee of the City or an independent agency, after his or her employment has ceased, knowingly to act as agent or attorney for anyone other than the City or an independent agency in connection with any administrative or other proceeding, application, request for a ruling or other determination, contract, claim, controversy, charge, accusation, arrest or other particular matter involving a specific party or parties in which the City or an independent agency is a party or has a direct and substantial interest and in which he or she participated personally and substantially as an officer or employee, through decision, approval, disapproval, recommendation, the rendering of advice, investigation or otherwise while employed by the City or an independent agency.
(b) It shall be a violation of this Chapter for any person, who was an officer or employee of the City or an independent agency, after his or her employment has ceased, to appear personally before any unit of government as agent or attorney for anyone other than the City or an independent agency in connection with any proceeding, application, request for a ruling or other determination, contract, claim, controversy, charge, accusation, arrest or other particular matter involving a specific party or parties in which the City or an independent agency is a party or has a direct and substantial interest and which was under his or her official responsibility as an officer or employee of the City or an independent agency at any time within a period of one year prior to the termination of his or her responsibility.
Subsection (c) provides a mechanism for the "head of the unit of government" to grant an exception if the former city employee is a subject-matter expert in the matter before the city or agency.
However, this section appears to be most on point, but it has lots of conditional language that might provide loopholes.
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Sec. 602.412. - Prohibited future employment.
It shall be a violation of this Chapter for any person, who was an officer or employee of the City or an independent agency, after his or her employment has ceased, to be employed by or enter into any contract for personal services, with a person or company who contracted with, or had a contractual relationship with the City or the independent agency, while the contract is active or being completed, or within two years of the cessation, completion, or termination of the person's or company's contractual relationship with the City or the independent agency, where (1) the contract with the City or the independent agency had a value that exceeded $250,000, and (2) the officer or employee had a substantial and decision-making role in securing or negotiating the contract or contractual relationship, or in the approval of financial submissions or draws in accordance with the terms of the contract; except that this prohibition shall not apply to an employee whose role is merely as a review signatory, or to contracts entered into prior to January 1, 2008, or to contracts that have been competitively procured. With respect to this subsection a contract is competitively procured if it has been obtained through a sealed low bid award. A "substantial and decision-making role" shall include duties and/or responsibilities that are collectively associated with: (i) approving solicitation or payment documents; (ii) evaluating formal bids and proposals; and (iii) approving and/or issuing award recommendations for final mayoral, City Council, or independent agency approval. The contract of any person or business entity who hires or contracts for services with any officer or employee prohibited from entering into said relationship shall be voidable at the pleasure of the City or independent agency. This prohibition shall not apply to any former officer or employee after two years from cessation from City or independent agency employment. An officer or employee subject to the prohibition of this Section who believes his or her role in the applicable contract does not create an ethical dilemma, may appeal to a committee of the City Council Rules Chair, the Chairperson of the Ethics Commission, and the Chief of Procurement for relief from this Section. Said appeal shall be considered and ruled upon within ten business days of a written request.
The Ethics Code: https://library.municode.com/fl/jacksonville/codes/code_of_ordinances?nodeId=TITXVIJUCO_CH602JAETCO
^ Charles, thanks for posting.
What is the definition of an "officer"? Could that include elected officials? I would think it might. Is it defined in the statues/ordinances somewhere?
Fortunately, the terms are defined in the ordinance
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Sec. 602.201. - Definitions.
Appointed official means any person appointed to any board, commission, or authority.
Officer means any person elected to any City office and any appointed official.
^
QuoteOfficer means any person elected to any City office and any appointed official.
So the Mayor, constitutional officers and City Council are all covered too. Will be interesting to see how Curry's role plays out here.
Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 17, 2023, 01:30:32 PM
Ever wonder what happened to former mayor, Lenny Curry ;D? He went where many politico's go to pasture, as a lobbyist. Would be interesting to see how their clients were treated when he was mayor.
Not sure, but I believe the City has some ethical standards regarding former officials lobbying the City or working for companies having relationships with the City. Would be interested in how this dovetails with that.
Former Mayor Lenny Curry joins Ballard Partners
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/17/former-mayor-lenny-curry-joins-ballard-partners/
How will his possible indictment for the JEA fiasco affect his new employment? Worst mayor ever.
Looks like the other shoe is beginning to drop.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2024/01/31/nate-monroe-zahn-told-confidant-the-mayor-supported-40-million-payout-in-jea-sale/72429359007/
QuoteDuring a private phone conversation in June 2019, former JEA CEO Aaron Zahn told a consultant "the mayor" was "supportive" of him receiving $40 million if he could successfully privatize the city-owned utility, according that consultant's testimony in federal court Wednesday.
There's gonna be a whole lot more juicy tidbits these next few weeks as the trial begins.