Interesting collection of viewpoints on how the ongoing pandemic might (or might not) reshape cities.
Links to each article are available on the site below:
https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/108814-debating-future-cities-and-urban-density-after-pandemic
QuoteDebating the Future of Cities, and Urban Density, After the Pandemic
Numerous writers and experts are already examining the question about what happens to ideas about urbanism in a future forever altered by recent events.
Questions about the future are obviously on everyone's mind as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the globe, shutting down cities and states across the United States after months of warnings about the risk from Asia and Europe, and models of both success and failure in containing the spread of the coronavirus. Confined to the relatively small spaces of homes and apartments, surrounded by immense cities and regions, questions about whether living arrangements and development patterns are resilient and safe enough take on new meaning during a pandemic, and new anxieties.
As news continues to break and the situation continues to change, the media will continue to debate the lessons of the pandemic, including ideas about urbanism. Some of the leading voices in urbanism, planning, and design media are already attempting to reconfigure a vision for the future of cities, now that the coronavirus has revealed so much about the ways we live.
For those who are ready to also ponder these questions, here is a roundup of articles—of varying levels of optimism, speculation, and "newsiness"—on the changes that are already underway in cities, and what we can expect when the pandemic is over.
"Pandemics Are Also an Urban Planning Problem" (CityLab, March 6)
"Coronavirus outbreak's silver lining for climate crisis likely to fade" (The Japan Times, March 12)
"Are Suburbs Safer From Coronavirus? Probably Not." (CityLab, March 13)
"Social distancing revives America's suburban instincts" (The Boston Globe, March 16)
"Why Chicago and other cities are vulnerable to the virus: Their strength is their weakness" (Chicago Tribune, March 17)
"Why Norway Is Banning its Residents From Their Own Vacation Homes" (CityLab, March 17)
"Can City Life Survive Coronavirus?" (New York Times, March 17)
"Philadelphia has endured plagues before. It adapted and became a better place." (Philadelphia Inquirer, March 18)
"Building a future in a corona paralysis" (CNU Public Square, March 18)
"COVID-19 may sport the thinnest silver lining: a cleaner climate" (Smart Cities Dive, March 19)
"The new coronavirus economy: A gigantic experiment reshaping how we work and live" (The Washington Post, March 21)
"Will coronavirus spur a traffic-solving remote-work revolution? Don't count on it" (Mercury News, March 22)
These kinds of questions serve as context for massive challenges facing communities as the worst effects of the pandemic start to show in hospitals and unemployment numbers over the coming days and weeks, but the connections between the traditional role of planning and the future of planning to the sustainability of public health and prosperity are obvious now, more than ever. Planners will be essential in the hard work of answering questions about the public realm, mobility, social isolation, and local and regional leadership. Now, soon, and for the long-term.
I hope everyone back in Florida is staying safe and smart and taking all necessary precautions there but I cant help but think of the long term effects on downtown development going forward because of the perceptions of the virus spreading more rapidly in denser settings. I understand that bad perceptions can be shattered by the market such as a the perception that downtown is unsafe or undesirable or that there is nothing to do after 6. Once this pandemic dies down significantly I'm sure that dense areas incubating diseases mindset would tap down but what will this mean to developing downtown's like Jacksonville doesn't have the population or establishments or nightlife other cities CBDs have been developing? Even with jobs coming back downtown would the after effects of the virus put a stop in developing residential units or will they ask for greater incentives and tax rebates from the city to start any new significant projects?
Previous pandemics did not create change. What reason does a person have to imagine this time it will?
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on March 25, 2020, 10:13:28 AM
Previous pandemics did not create change. What reason does a person have to imagine this time it will?
Clearly, previous pandemics did create change. The Yellow Fever epidemics in Florida changed the way cities were designed to improve sanitation, sparked the creation of the state health board, and toppled the sitting government of Jacksonville.
Man wasn't designed for "urban density", and pandemics, wars, crime, stress, social strife, and many other problems prove this point. Urban density is good for commerce I supposed, but life is just better when we aren't all crammed-in like sardines.
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on March 25, 2020, 10:13:28 AM
Previous pandemics did not create change. What reason does a person have to imagine this time it will?
Well, I disagree that previous pandemics didn't create change, but I'll let someone else talk about that.
Plus, until the days of the automobile most people had to be pretty close to the city center as it wasn't practical to live far out. We haven't truly had a pandemic like this in the age of personal transportation (cars for daily commuting were still really new in 1918, plus there was that whole WWI thing going on too)
Quote from: Snaketoz on March 25, 2020, 01:17:40 PM
Man wasn't designed for "urban density", and pandemics, wars, crime, stress, social strife, and many other problems prove this point. Urban density is good for commerce I supposed, but life is just better when we aren't all crammed-in like sardines.
My guess is we have less urban density in our cities globally today than we had in the centuries before the automobile.
Heavily populated top international cities aren't looking too hot right now.
I don't know how much testing that they have done but Houston is at 325 cases as of this evening.
Likely sustained and growing interest in a home with some included outside soil area..... AKA " Yard". Garden, private open space. Rather than a balcony.
Quote from: I-10east on March 25, 2020, 07:24:23 PM
Heavily populated top international cities aren't looking too hot right now.
that's not entirely true - Tokyo, Honk Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur don't look too bad. Here in the US yes NYC is a hotbed and Chicago also looks bad...but so do Detroit and New Orleans.
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 26, 2020, 08:34:48 AM
Quote from: I-10east on March 25, 2020, 07:24:23 PM
Heavily populated top international cities aren't looking too hot right now.
that's not entirely true - Tokyo, Honk Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur don't look too bad. Here in the US yes NYC is a hotbed and Chicago also looks bad...but so do Detroit and New Orleans.
More people in close proximity increases the likelihood of transmission. And big cities tend to have more people traveling in and out of them. But big cities tend to also have the infrastructure required to deal with stuff like this.
It's also worth remembering that this current situation is not the norm.
^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 27, 2020, 08:47:57 PM
^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.
Also, I think he's being a bit arbitrary in separating NYC and Westchester Co. as they are part of the same urban agglomeration. Lots of people who work and shop in NYC live outside of Manhattan and outside of the city.
Overall, I question the scholarship of that article. He's using one metric (infections per capita) to 'disprove' the density theory. But it's early days right now and it would probably be more accurate to observe the rate of infection over time to see how much density plays a factor. If the virus spreads qucker and easier in densely-populated places, then density is likely a factor.
Not sure if I have had this virus, but if I did, I likely got it from my wife. Who likely got it from someone in her office - who likely got it on the train.
Quote from: Adam White on March 28, 2020, 04:18:15 AM
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
My gf showed me these models based off of cellphone tracking last night.
March 24th - Ft. Lauderdale Spring Breakers
https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361
March 25th - Lower Manhattan epicenter
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243006977594273792
Quote from: Adam White on March 28, 2020, 04:18:15 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 27, 2020, 08:47:57 PM
^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.
I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.
Quote from: thelakelander on March 29, 2020, 05:26:00 PM
Quote from: Adam White on March 28, 2020, 04:18:15 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 27, 2020, 08:47:57 PM
^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.
I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.
There's also the matter that there are a lot more people today than in any previous pandemic, and proportionately more live in or near cities versus rural areas than in the past.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on March 29, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
Quote from: Adam White on March 28, 2020, 04:18:15 AM
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
My gf showed me these models based off of cellphone tracking last night.
March 24th - Ft. Lauderdale Spring Breakers
https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361
March 25th - Lower Manhattan epicenter
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243006977594273792
Jesus Christ.
Quote from: thelakelander on March 29, 2020, 05:26:00 PM
Quote from: Adam White on March 28, 2020, 04:18:15 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on March 27, 2020, 08:47:57 PM
^ the facts don't support that density is necessarily a big factor
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out
But people being close to each other does increase the likelihood of transmission. Hence, "social distancing". If a person becomes infected, he has a greater chance of trasmitting the virus to more people if he comes into contact with more people.
The author actually addresses this in the "crowding" part of the piece.
I can definitely see the problem with the clustering issue. It doesn't matter how dense or large a city is overall, if people are still clustering close for events like church services, funerals, weddings, grocery shopping, hanging out at the beach, etc.
Of course. But the bigger the city, the more people to cluster. In fact, the more likely to just 'cluster' when going about doing everyday tasks. And the harder to control, you'd think.
I'd argue that's the case with any place that has more than a couple of hundred people that rely on the same social venues and businesses for survival. Then, the more sprawling and disconnected the community is, the harder to control or siphon it off from the world surrounding it. A bigger compact place may have a higher absolute number, in the event of an outbreak within that social circle. However, the more compact, arguably the easier it would be to contain to that specific location. Time will tell but at this point, I'd question if Jax will end up being any better off than a denser community like Miami or New York when it's all said and done (assuming no vaccine is found soon).
Quote from: thelakelander on March 29, 2020, 07:46:30 PM
I'd argue that's the case with any place that has more than a couple of hundred people that rely on the same social venues and businesses for survival. Then, the more sprawling and disconnected the community is, the harder to control or siphon it off from the world surrounding it. A bigger compact place may have a higher absolute number, in the event of an outbreak within that social circle. However, the more compact, arguably the easier it would be to contain to that specific location. Time will tell but at this point, I'd question if Jax will end up being any better off than a denser community like Miami or New York when it's all said and done (assuming no vaccine is found soon).
Yeah, I doubt Jax will end up being any better than those places in the long run - though the rate of spread might be slower.
One thing that is working in Jacksonville's favor (as much as I hate to say it) is the lack of any real public transportation system whatsoever. They generally say that spreading the virus tends to happen with sustained (about 15 min) close contact with others. If you still travel to and from everywhere in your car, you're safer. But as gorcery stores, etc get busier and fail to institute social-distancing protocols, you'll be putting yourself in risk waiting in line or whatever.
Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools? We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future? How about physical college and university campuses? After the past two weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...
Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 8)
Quote from: BridgeTroll on March 30, 2020, 05:18:45 PM
Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools? We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future? How about physical college and university campuses? After the past two weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...
Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 8)
I hope they still build schools. I'm about to expel my son from home school...
Quote from: Adam White on March 30, 2020, 05:43:29 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on March 30, 2020, 05:18:45 PM
Does the future of cities following this pandemic include building physical elementary, middle and high schools? We are now seeing the learn at home model... is this the wave of the future? How about physical college and university campuses? After the past two weeks we may have seen the beginning of the end of the physical school...
Think Alice Cooper's "Schools Out"... 8)
I hope they still build schools. I'm about to expel my son from home school...
Lol... happening all over...
https://quillette.com/2020/05/14/towards-a-better-urbanism/
Published on May 14, 2020
Towards a Better Urbanism
written by Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky
The pandemic has brought panic to the once-confident ranks of urbanists promoting city density. At a time when even the New York Times is noticing that density and transit pose serious health risks for any potential re-opening, such people attack their critics as "anti-urbanist" or "sprawl lovers" or "urban gadflies." Preferring theology over data, some advocate ever-greater density and crowding in cities and mass transit....
https://dirt.asla.org/2020/05/13/the-pandemic-will-lead-to-a-revitalization-of-main-street-retail/ (https://dirt.asla.org/2020/05/13/the-pandemic-will-lead-to-a-revitalization-of-main-street-retail/)
Hmmm... looks like two sets of "urbanistas" have wildly different views on post pandemic urban centers...
Most likely the real outcome is somewhere in the middle. Anyone acting as an expert on predicting what cities will become because of the pandemic is basically making points for whatever side of the fence they already fall on. In reality, no one even knows what will happen to cities years from now. We can't even predict that there will be a football season with fans in the stands right now.
One other thing to consider is that cities tend to have more resources, too. Like more (and generally, better) hospitals. More gorcery stores (and shops with delivery services). So there is more infrastructure in place.
I can see the benefits to either argument and I guess my way of looking at it is that if there is a pandemic, nowhere in particular is guaranteed to be 'safe' - so if you prefer suburban living, you will have to adapt in certain ways, but you will be able to live in your preferred setting. If you prefer urban life, then you will have other challenges to adapt to and consider, but will be able to live in your preferred setting.
Also - pandemics suck, but they are inevitable. That said, they don't tend to happen all the time (at least not yet, though with climate change, it is theorised that there will likely be an increase in epidemics and pandemics). There are other reasons to choose where you live and your choices probably shouldn't be driven by one particular factor.
It seems certain to me that working from home will be much more prevalent than in the past. Companies will no longer need huge office buildings to house workers. Most major companies found that with minor tweaks their operations ran smoothly with ALL employees working from home...
I can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?
Quote from: BridgeTroll on May 18, 2020, 06:39:53 AM
It seems certain to me that working from home will be much more prevalent than in the past. Companies will no longer need huge office buildings to house workers. Most major companies found that with minor tweaks their operations ran smoothly with ALL employees working from home...
I can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?
Totally. I think there is a possibility that this virus will provide the impetus for changes to happen that have been talked about for a long time, but slowly adopted so far. That said, people oftentimes end up being creatures of habit and also don't necessarily learn lessons too well.
I think my company will probably start looking at downsizing its footprint in Central London in order to make a not-insubstantial savings going forward. The coming months and possibly years are going to be tough on everyone financially - I hope my company (a charity) will do what it can to reduce costs while maintaining most of its employees. We've seen pretty much all of our revenue dry up, as it's tied to college assessments and those just aren't happening!
^Depends on the industry. Many require face to face interaction. For those that deal with the general public, equity and access becomes an obstacle that can't be totally resolved virtually. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is not transformative change a few years down the road. Nevertheless, it's way too early to predict a path.
Quote from: thelakelander on May 18, 2020, 09:55:36 AM
^Depends on the industry. Many require face to face interaction. For those that deal with the general public, equity and access becomes an obstacle that can't be totally resolved virtually. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is not transformative change a few years down the road. Nevertheless, it's way too early to predict a path.
Of course. I wouldn't expect assembly or abbatoir workers to start working from home ;D
Quote from: Adam White on March 27, 2020, 04:00:45 AM
More people in close proximity increases the likelihood of transmission.
That is the ___ONLY__only way it transits.
It doesn't happen by osmosis. It doesn't happen by looking at someone. You have to be in close quarters and _indoors_.
And for thsoe getting lawyeristic, sure you can get it outdoors. But you have to be doing some mouth to mouth breathing or something similar.
The issue isn't residential density, it's the density of these transmission vectors. Concerts, nursing homes, subway cars, buses, meat packing plants airplanes, German beer halls blasting polka while everyone in town is kissing each other on the lips, they're all densely packed with transmission vectors.
No, I'm not making up people in a german town kissing each other on the lips and transmitting COVID19. It's a real thing. I am assuming that beer and polka were involved.
----
As for what will happen COVID 19 will be a catlyst. There were already more workers telecommuting than taking transit. This will be a catalyst to push that further.
It doesn't take much change for transit to take a big hit. Many agencies were already heavily dependent on white collar dowtown workers. If half of them start working remotely jsut a couple days a week, that's gonna really hurt to say the least.
Quote from: BridgeTroll on May 18, 2020, 06:39:53 AM
I can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?
Good God, no. If I wanted to go to Zoom University, I would have signed up for UF Online.
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on May 18, 2020, 03:06:58 PM
Quote from: Adam White on March 27, 2020, 04:00:45 AM
More people in close proximity increases the likelihood of transmission.
That is the ___ONLY__only way it transits.
It doesn't happen by osmosis. It doesn't happen by looking at someone. You have to be in close quarters and _indoors_.
Thanks, mom. You might want to re-read my comment. I was saying MORE people in close proximity INCREASES the likelihood. In other words, the chances. I wasn't commenting on the route of transmission.
But, while we're on that topic, you are incorrect. It is not the ONLY way it is transmitted. No, not also by osmosis, but by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face. You can be the only person on a completely empty bus and touch a hand rail and end up contracting the virus. And while this may not be as likely a way to get infected, it most certainly is a way. That's the reason for all the 'wash your hands' messaging.
Sorry, didn't mean to write it in a way that my comments came across as singling you out. Shouldn've done a better job at that.
On the other hand, don't complain about something and then do the very thing you complain about. Surface transmission is all about being indoors and in close quarters. You ain't likely to get it from setting your butt in a pew. You're going to need to touch that door handle soon after the virus was there and have that moment of non thought and rub your eyes or whatever. Think of proximity as covering not only physical distance but also time.
Quote from: bl8jaxnative on May 19, 2020, 10:45:19 AM
Sorry, didn't mean to write it in a way that my comments came across as singling you out. Shouldn've done a better job at that.
On the other hand, don't complain about something and then do the very thing you complain about. Surface transmission is all about being indoors and in close quarters. You ain't likely to get it from setting your butt in a pew. You're going to need to touch that door handle soon after the virus was there and have that moment of non thought and rub your eyes or whatever. Think of proximity as covering not only physical distance but also time.
Fair play - but the virus reportedly can exist on surfaces for quite some time, depending. You're likely to touch something with your hands en route to sitting in that pew, be it the door handle on the way in or the back of the pew in front of yours.
And people touch their faces all the time without even thinking about it (as you pointed out) and it's hard to stop doing it. Also - it can persist on surfaces outside, too. Even though it might degrade in sunlight, it doesn't mean it's not an issue outside. I touch stuff outside all the time. Like I grabbed a shopping cart this morning (they keep those outside here) and had to constantly remind myself not to touch my face, as I have no idea who touched it recently.
Of course, I'm not worried, as such. But it is a wider concern.
In general, I agree that it would appear that the more people around you, the greater the chance of transmission.
Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 18, 2020, 03:49:29 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on May 18, 2020, 06:39:53 AM
I can also see the same occurring in education... especially higher education. Why build expensive infrastructure when students can simply log in?
Good God, no. If I wanted to go to Zoom University, I would have signed up for UF Online.
We have all been saying "good god no" regarding a lot of things... UF is certainly not going to tear down any facilities but they may think twice before adding... they may require certain classes or a percentage of classes to be virtual. This school from home/work from home experiment ain't going away anytime soon...