Metro Jacksonville

High speed rail project has eye on Jacksonville

(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/Transit/JRTC-Amtrak-Station-Plans-and/i-PdcHBrX/0/X2/Amtrak-Front%20Rendering-X2.jpg)



Read More: http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-dec-high-speed-rail-project-has-its-eye-jacksonville (http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-dec-high-speed-rail-project-has-its-eye-jacksonville)

So basically, having vacant land in and around JT is a benefit now.

It makes it way more easier to design and build to a complete plan, not having to piece meal parcels together.

This may be happening at the perfect time:

QuoteJTA and DIA partnering on new life for LaVilla

By Max Marbut, Staff Writer

Two of the city's independent authorities are working together to establish a plan for Jacksonville's oldest suburb — and they have quite a head start.
The Downtown Investment Authority and Jacksonville Transportation Authority are splitting the $20,000 cost of hiring a consultant to provide a master plan for LaVilla. The area is west of the urban core, north of the Prime Osborn Convention Center, east of Interstate 95 and south of Union Street.

Both organizations have plans in place for the neighborhood. The DIA has approved development agreements for two apartment buildings and JTA is planning a Regional Transportation Center.

What follows those projects will be the focus of the master plan for the acres of historic urban real estate that have been neglected for more than 20 years.

Full article: http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=546715

I really do hope to see this happen. However, with the amount of pain it has taken to go through the Treasure Coast without a stop, where would you envision stops on a leg to Jacksonville? Daytona and St. Augustine?

I think this would be the push for Jax to do something with a streetcar in the urban neighborhoods that connects one way or another with the Skyway to take people somewhere desirable when they arrive. It is a HUGE coup for Jacksonville though if you can hop on a train at MCO (the 12th busiest airport in the country with every international flight imaginable) and be in Jacksonville in an hour and a half.

^Daytona and perhaps St. Augustine. I can't imagine anything else. However, what it would do is possibly address much of the track capacity improvements needed for an Amtrak line between Jax and Miami. If that happens, stations in smaller east coast cities could be served by Amtrak.

I'm not really seeing the value of traveling from Orlando to Miami in 3 hours... I can do that now in my car for less money than they'll charge for a ticket and I won't have to rent a car / cab when I get there. I think high speed rail is a great idea, but it needs to be much faster.

Quote from: jaxjaguar on December 23, 2015, 09:43:15 AM
I'm not really seeing the value of traveling from Orlando to Miami in 3 hours... I can do that now in my car for less money than they'll charge for a ticket and I won't have to rent a car / cab when I get there. I think high speed rail is a great idea, but it needs to be much faster.

The price of a ticket will be a huge consideration with gas dropping so rapidly. You can do Miami to Orlando if there is NO traffic. But if you need to make a weekday trip, good luck missing traffic. I think this is also really focused on tourists as the lifeblood with long term goals of seeing some commuter activity. Orlando is the #1 most visited place in America and Miami is #5 according to Forbes. For International travelers, Orlando is #1 and Miami is #3 with NYC holding down the second spot.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/28/tourism-new-york-lifestyle-travel-las-vegas-cities_slide_11.html

If Jacksonville were to have a connection to those cities, it could mean a lot more visitors (which is also why I think St. A would get a stop).

^Agreed, especially with the rail line running so close to St. George Street and the other tourist areas. As long as there are decent connections from the stations, rail could be a game changer for tourism.

Also consider taking a cruise out of Miami. Parking is around $20-$30 per day. Taking the train would save serious cash.

Quote from: coredumped on December 23, 2015, 10:29:59 AM
Also consider taking a cruise out of Miami. Parking is around $20-$30 per day. Taking the train would save serious cash.

^Parking anywhere around Miami Beach or DT Miami is a pain and very very expensive as well.

For intercity rail to compete successfully with cars and airlines in a place like Florida, it needs to be faster than a car trip, cheaper than a plain ticket, and easier than both. I have no idea if the Brightline will successfully pull that off, but it seems their real money is going to come from elsewhere. In addition to getting more use out of FEC's already-existing tracks, the whole project opens up their ability to get into the real estate development game. That could be something of a double-edged sword for a lot of places, but it could be a very exciting opportunity for LaVilla.

Especially considering, as Lakelander points out, JTA is apparently still moving forward with the transit center at the Prime Osborn. The article mentions they're putting all the other pieces together besides the train station - the city bus hub, the Skyway, Greyhound and the JTA offices - and, beyond that, they're apparently finally coordinating with the Downtown Investment Authority. While train service is still a missing piece there, it's obviously a long term consideration or the rest of the plan wouldn't revolve around the old terminal.

The city (and the independent authorities) still have a lot of land in Lavilla, and so much of it is mostly or totally unused. That could make for a very attractive prospect for FEC...

^agree with everything above. If I were to have a plan for the site and direction of DT overall I would suggest moving the convention center to the old courthouse and turn the terminal back to its original use. For the old convention center space, I'm sure offering that up to AAF to raze and develop into a mixed use tower would be an easy win. Often times with development like this comes development so if we have a solid plan and they officially announce expansion it can be a huge signal to developers that LaVilla will be a boom market. Especially after the success in Brooklyn.

The northern portions of Brooklyn there would be closer to this stop than anywhere else if you linked it over the Creek. We need some buzz and momentum around here and this would provide that just as Miami, Orlando, and Tampa/St. Pete may hit prices in the real estate market that make developers look north to Jax.

While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

The All Aboard Florida scam is a CSX boondoggle to pay for track improvements.  CSX has sucked in public transit enthusiasts to support this mess.  Can you imagine a train blasting through a small Florida town going 125 mph?  How many people will get killed when one of these 125 mph trains goes off the track or hits a car?  Train accidents are frequent, running trains over existing crossings at 125 mph will create a hazard unlike anything we have known. 

Prediction - After the first horrific crash and the lawyers completely take All Aboard Florida to the cleaners, the taxpayers will be on the hook for all of the track improvement bonds.  The only folks making money on this deal is CSX and the lawyers suing All Aboard Florida.  Losers?  The taxpayers.

There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

^CSX?

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 23, 2015, 11:01:08 PM
The All Aboard Florida scam is a CSX boondoggle to pay for track improvements.  CSX has sucked in public transit enthusiasts to support this mess.  Can you imagine a train blasting through a small Florida town going 125 mph?  How many people will get killed when one of these 125 mph trains goes off the track or hits a car?  Train accidents are frequent, running trains over existing crossings at 125 mph will basically create a hazard unlike anything we have known. 

Prediction - After the first horrific crash and the lawyers completely take All Aboard Florida to the cleaners, the taxpayers will be on the hook for all of the track improvement bonds.  The only folks making money on this deal is CSX and the lawyers suing All Aboard Florida.  Losers?  The taxpayers.

There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

This might be the most ill informed post we've ever had on MJ. Shall we even consider it serious?

AAF parent FEC RY/Fortress/FECI are fierce competitors of CSX, how anyone can think they are related is news to me.
Trains won't be running at 125 mph through any town. Railroads are governed and their speeds are set by city, county, state and federal law. The 125mph stretch will be between Orlando and Cocoa where there is absolutely nothing. In the future south of St. Augustine is good for 90 mph to north of Ormond Beach. This is about as fast as they ran these trains in 1938! Without digital signaling assistance.

ZERO tax dollars are being invested in this. The loans will normally go through the RRRR Act which simply allows railroads to borrow at lower fixed rates as it is a hugely $$ intense business (meaning at a market you might invest $100 and gross $140. In railroading you'd invest $100 and be damn lucky to see $105 returned.

Frequent accidents? Horrific accidents? Where? When? Do you realize American railroads are among the very safest transportation modes in the entire world? Even these 'horrific' accidents, where a train jumps the track and flys into a ditch usually have less then a dozen fatalities. (If any).. Try that with a 747.

Nobody uses Amtrak? Try and get a reservation to New York or Miami. Good luck with that. SOLD OUT, typically through most of the year.

I tried to answer your concerns honestly, but I can only imagine a response. For the record I am a well published railroad author, historian and former planner for the National Railroads in Colombia. Lakelander is a well known urban and transportation planner and another MJ publisher is a CSX executive. I believe our expertise trumps rumors and hysteria.

So how much do we predict a ticket to cost to get to Jax from any of the connected cities? I'm seriously doubting the sustainability of this considering most of the train ticket prices I've looked at exceed airline prices AND you have to tack on HOURS to the travel time. As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

Probably too far down the line to be contemplating ticket costs but they expect a large segment of riders on the Orland/Miami project will be tourist. Those used to getting around communities with public transit won't have problems getting to major destinations in those cities. Plus, if they want to rent a car, once they arrive (like many do with air travel), that option will be available as well.

I agree with OCK on the demand on Amtrak, its damn hard to get a cabin on the trains going North and South from Jax. Still.....

Quotesplitting the $20,000 cost of hiring a consultant to provide a master plan for LaVilla

To me this means this is still a ways off for implementation. Build on what we have now, and plan to have a better tomorrow, but don't go out thinking we will have high speed in jax, just yet, a long ways off.

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 23, 2015, 10:59:28 PM
While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 23, 2015, 11:01:08 PM
There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

I'm not going to go by train to Miami from Jacksonville because I don't want to go through Orlando and Winter Haven to do it. Because it goes through there, it's a 9 hour train. That's because no passenger service is offered on the FEC lines currently.

Make no mistake - I'd love to see this service. I could only dream of a rail system in the US that is even comparable to the network that SNCF has in France.

For the more rail-savvy folks - if this service were to be launched to Jacksonville (opening up the FEC to passengers), do you see Amtrak utilizing the FEC line? For example, running the Silver Star to Miami, then having the Silver Meteor end in Tampa permanently?

^Yes. I suspect you'll see an Amtrak line down the FEC at some point, if some entity like AAF helps improve the capacity between Jax and Cocoa. Also, I don't know what a ticket would cost to ride the entire thing but I suspect there could be regional value in having the option of a one stop rail ride between....say....DT Jax and St. Augustine or DT Miami and DT Fort Lauderdale.

Quote from: jaxjaguar on December 23, 2015, 11:40:34 PM
So how much do we predict a ticket to cost to get to Jax from any of the connected cities? I'm seriously doubting the sustainability of this considering most of the train ticket prices I've looked at exceed airline prices AND you have to tack on HOURS to the travel time. As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

I think there are multiple angles here, and they aren't expecting to pull a majority of people out of cars/airplanes. It's just another option, one that is better for some folks. I can tell you personally there is plenty of use to it for me and my family as our relatives don't need a car when they visit us here and we never need one when we are down in Miami.

Quote from: thelakelander on December 24, 2015, 12:38:40 AM
Probably too far down the line to be contemplating ticket costs but they expect a large segment of riders on the Orland/Miami project will be tourist. Those used to getting around communities with public transit won't have problems getting to major destinations in those cities. Plus, if they want to rent a car, once they arrive (like many do with air travel), that option will be available as well.

I could also see it serving a more regional role...taking passengers from intermediary cities. Not entirely reliant on Jax-Miami, Orl-Miami passengers.

Quote from: RattlerGator on December 24, 2015, 07:53:58 AM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 23, 2015, 10:59:28 PM
While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

Yeah, I'm not sure I would go that far. It's more like they don't rely on ticket sales for profit. But they still want the volume of passengers to make their real estate worthwhile hubs of vibrancy. I can tell you Hong Kong's MRT stations wouldn't be worth so much if it weren't for the millions of riders passing through each day.

Quote from: RattlerGator on December 24, 2015, 07:53:58 AM

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 23, 2015, 10:59:28 PM
While the plan involves passenger trains, it is:
NOT HIGH SPEED RAIL (the technology is called Higher Speed Rail or HrSR).
and
IT DOESNT DEPEND ON PASSENGERS FOR PROFIT (As Publix doesn't depend on shopping carts to make money)

AAF/Brightline/FEC RY/FECI/Flagler Development/Fortress are just the first private venture to work out a formula for profit based on the RAIL-TOD relationship that MJ has been shouting about from day one. Put in the rail link and... They will come! Develop villages of high rise towers around said rail link and watch that investment blow the old way of developing all to hell. TAMPA and PORTLAND both built rail, it doesn't even have to be highly successful from a passenger standpoint, made into cornerstones of good urban plans and the two cities have seen $3BN and $10BN in new TOD that is certifiably related to rail. AAF figures they can laugh all the way to the bank, meanwhile it opens a new terminal in JAX, provides much needed rail capacity, improves the freight flow, adds passenger trains, opens the door for Amtrak, and most importantly, if they should be highly successful, we might even kiss Amtrak goodbye as railroads across the country follow the lead of the FEC.

This is what interests me. I'd love to see a MetroJax article discussing this a bit further or a link in this thread to a piece discussing it. It sounds almost too good to be true. Someone, anyone . . . please disabuse me of this presumption.

RattlerGator,

This issue/subject has been discussed before on MJ.

The problem many consultants and others have had when looking at AAF is they look strictly at the cost to build and compare that directly with the number of passengers times ticket fare to calculate revenue.

In this case there is more to the revenue model than pure fares.

Because AAF is just one entity of many inside a corporate umbrella than can take advantage of what will be built.

Flagler Development will be building thousands of square feet of Class A space over Miami Central Station. Those air rights are not free, so basically a revenue source will be in office rents.

Parallel Infrastructure is another entity that leases fiber access along ROW's to cell carriers and can lease ROW cell tower space.  This also facilitates wifi connection revenue on AAF.

Flagler Development will also develop high density transit oriented development at (condos, apartments) key stations along the ROW. Not only does this present a more permanent passenger opportunity, the access increases property values.

The ROW from Cocoa to Orlando will be owned by AAF, but freight trackage rights will be paid for by FEC. The freight volume between Port Canaveral and Orlando has been on a steady pattern of growth. Again more revenue for AAF.

This doesnt include other sources like express package carriage, passenger sales via all inclusive  "package travel deals" which are very popular in Europe.

Leasing retail space in the new stations, (except Orlando), Florida Resident discounts, military travel privs, college student specials, combo deals with cruise lines, combo deals with tribal casinos, all are tools for driving revenue.

Does this help?

BUSINESS MODEL:
Excellent job explaining the many other revenue streams in this story spuwho, it's just a damn shame that we can't get the city and/or JTA/FDOT to see the amazing possibilities of combining the JRTC and RAIL in the heart of downtown. Of course I'm not talking about a rail platform and two lousy Amtrak trains daily, the city should be driving expanded Amtrak, commuter rail, streetcar/rapid streetcar or light-rail in addition to the 'almost basic BRT.' 

MAG-LEV AND AUTOPIA:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around some of this:

Quote from: jaxjaguar on December 23, 2015, 11:40:34 PM
As I've said previously I'm for High Speed Rail, but I really have a hard time seeing people traveling by train if it takes the same amount of time and they lose the freedom of their personal vehicle. Sadly, most Floridians would rather drive their personal car than fork out cash to an unpredictable cab industry.

The same could be said for New Yorkers, Los Angeleno's, San Franciscan's and Chicagoans, the difference is they have the rail option and we don't. So naturally we 'love our cars but consider the most autocentric population on earth, Los Angeles, is bailing out of their cars and building all forms of rail just as fast as they can.

Quote from: jaxjaguar on December 23, 2015, 11:40:34 PM
That being said, obviously some people would use this and it would help the state be more connected, but is it not possible to look into mag-lev technology for this endeavor if passengers aren't essential as Ock said?

Why would any corporation want to abandon a proven technology that can be purchased off-the-shelf for a Mag-Lev system that at this point is still rather Pie-In-The-Sky. Mag-Lev uses expensive proprietary technologies that are 100% incompatible with the existing rail network. A heavy investment in Mag-Lev between JAX and Orlando, helps only those on the JAX - Orlando route, a heavy investment in conventional HrSR between JAX and Orlando boosts the strength and interchangeability of the whole states rail network. Mag-Lev from downtown to the airport might attract a few more passengers but it will cost a minimum of 60% more.

WHAT IS AND WHAT ISN'T PLANNED:
The official State Passenger Rail Plan calls for nothing more then passenger service on the FEC RY and a new connection from Cocoa to Orlando and hence on to Tampa.

The plan is typically short sighted, it misses the long standing route from:

Jacksonville-Waldo-Ocala-Lakeland-Tampa

Which population wise is one of the fastest growth area's in the state and transportation wise, the least served. 4-5 flights out of Gainesville, and 4 Greyhound schedules between Jax and Tampa via Ocala or Gainesville.

This plan also eliminates Palatka, Deland, Winter Park, Orlando (downtown) as well as Winter Haven, West Lake Wales, Sebring, Okeechobee.

MY CRYSTAL BALL:
My thinking is we WILL see Amtrak on the FEC RY serving as a more local service with stops in St. Augustine, Bunnell, Daytona, Titusville, Cocoa Rockledge etc. while the HrSR trains of Brightline will pretty much run through from Jax to Cocoa with no more then one or two intermediate stops. If Brightline and Amtrak serve a common Cocoa stop (and there is no reason they wouldn't) then Brightline might not add any intermediate stops on it's routes, as local passengers could transfer to Amtrak at Jax, Cocoa, West Palm.

I expect to see AAF/Flagler/Brightline to purchase or lease the dirt and develop the hell out of the JRTC area. I actually expect to see something like the Peninsular/Strand/Vu with a mixed use lower floor area and parking garages.

SPOILER:
However, never underestimate the ability of JTA/FDOT to completely screw the pooch on this whole deal, in which case the Brightline Terminal could end up at the Avenues Walk or even San Marco. Amtrak could stay where it is and Greyhound could end up at Lem Turner and I-295. The whole time they'll be telling the press how we lead the nation in BRT... even if it is 'Phantom BRT.'

OUR TRUMP CARD:
Currently there is some question if AAF/Brightline can sell it's bonds or sell them in time to kick off the Orlando service as planned, keep in mind the Orlando route requires an entirely new railroad line to be built. It is entirely possible that Phase 2 (Jacksonville) could leapfrog Phase 1 (Orlando) and open first as the track from Jacksonville to Miami is already in place.

^^ Ocklawaha
I don't see the lack of a bond sale as a barrier to completing the project to Orlando. AAF has always said that they could build it without either PAB or RRIF funding. It will, however, be $300-400M more expensive according to AAF to not use those financing methods. AAF will not start on any other expansion until the Miami-Orlando line is running and proven succesful.  That is what I've been told by them over the past several years when I would ask.

Actually Phase 2 is the WPB to Orlando section.  I have not been told by anyone that there is another phase after that.  I give the expansion time frame at least until 2020 before any decision is made.

The same FDOT passenger rail report you mention also shows trip estimates between the major population centers in the state. Granted the numbers are from 2006, but they showed that intercity trips between Jacksonville and Orlando/South Florida were no where near the numbers for Tampa to Orlando/South Florida. I wouldn't count on Jacksonville being the next expansion route necessarily. AAF does seem to be following that same report fairly closely.

I've also been told that FDOT is preserving the rail envelop in the median along I4 between Tampa and Orlando along the same route that HSR was going to use. So there are plans being made just for a future expansion of passenger rail service to Tampa.

I also don't see AAF coming to Jax before Orlando. I also agree that a Tampa to Orlando line would have higher ridership than one to Jax. However,  this is a project that's a lot more than passenger rail based. Just about every other potential revenue stream is eliminated using I-4 and other property not in a FEC related company's control. Then someone has to fund 80 miles of new infrastructure. Without massive public incentives and subsidies it's hard to see a Tampa link materializing.

Quote from: thelakelander on December 24, 2015, 06:34:34 PM
I also don't see AAF coming to Jax before Orlando. I also agree that a Tampa to Orlando line would have higher ridership than one to Jax. However,  this is a project that's a lot more than passenger rail based. Just about every other potential revenue stream is eliminated using I-4 and other property not in a FEC related company's control. Then someone has to fund 80 miles of new infrastructure. Without massive public incentives and subsidies it's hard to see a Tampa link materializing.

AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

Jacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

Edit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

There's freight potential connecting Orlando to Port Canaveral. I'm on my way home to Polk County. I'll respond in greater detail once I get stationary. 

Quote from: thelakelander on December 24, 2015, 07:25:11 PM
There's freight potential connecting Orlando to Port Canaveral. I'm on my way home to Polk County. I'll respond in greater detail once I get stationary.

LOL if only you were riding the Brightline back to Jax you could respond in greater detail already.  ;)

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 23, 2015, 11:25:58 PM

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 23, 2015, 11:01:08 PM
The All Aboard Florida scam is a CSX boondoggle to pay for track improvements.  CSX has sucked in public transit enthusiasts to support this mess.  Can you imagine a train blasting through a small Florida town going 125 mph?  How many people will get killed when one of these 125 mph trains goes off the track or hits a car?  Train accidents are frequent, running trains over existing crossings at 125 mph will basically create a hazard unlike anything we have known. 

Prediction - After the first horrific crash and the lawyers completely take All Aboard Florida to the cleaners, the taxpayers will be on the hook for all of the track improvement bonds.  The only folks making money on this deal is CSX and the lawyers suing All Aboard Florida.  Losers?  The taxpayers.

There is existing Amtrak service to Miami, Orlando, Tampa, etc from Jacksonville but nobody uses it.

This might be the most ill informed post we've ever had on MJ. Shall we even consider it serious?

AAF parent FEC RY/Fortress/FECI are fierce competitors of CSX, how anyone can think they are related is news to me.
Trains won't be running at 125 mph through any town. Railroads are governed and their speeds are set by city, county, state and federal law. The 125mph stretch will be between Orlando and Cocoa where there is absolutely nothing. In the future south of St. Augustine is good for 90 mph to north of Ormond Beach. This is about as fast as they ran these trains in 1938! Without digital signaling assistance.

ZERO tax dollars are being invested in this. The loans will normally go through the RRRR Act which simply allows railroads to borrow at lower fixed rates as it is a hugely $$ intense business (meaning at a market you might invest $100 and gross $140. In railroading you'd invest $100 and be damn lucky to see $105 returned.

Frequent accidents? Horrific accidents? Where? When? Do you realize American railroads are among the very safest transportation modes in the entire world? Even these 'horrific' accidents, where a train jumps the track and flys into a ditch usually have less then a dozen fatalities. (If any).. Try that with a 747.

Nobody uses Amtrak? Try and get a reservation to New York or Miami. Good luck with that. SOLD OUT, typically through most of the year.

I tried to answer your concerns honestly, but I can only imagine a response. For the record I am a well published railroad author, historian and former planner for the National Railroads in Colombia. Lakelander is a well known urban and transportation planner and another MJ publisher is a CSX executive. I believe our expertise trumps rumors and hysteria.

Here's a map of rail lines in the state of Florida.  Florida East Coast Railway (All Aboard Florida) is basically the old Flager rail line down the east coast.  CSX owns pretty much the rest of the state.  Any connections to Jacksonville from Orlando or Tampa to Orlando are going over CSX track.

The reason Amtrak sells out is because it doesn't make any money and they run a bare minimum of trains just to give the appearance of an ongoing enterprise so congress will continue to fund pensions and pay for existing workers.  Amtrak is a zombie operation in every sense.

Even Florida East Coast Railway isn't hiding the fact that track improvements for increased freight from the new jumbo cargo ships coming through the enlarged Panama canal is the reason for floating the tax payer backed bonds.  It's public transit enthusiasts and taxpayers that are the suckers thinking that the All Aboard Florida hoax has anything to do with public transportation.  It's just corporate welfare with a public relations spin.  http://www.progressiverailroading.com/csx_transportation/article/South-Florida-rail-upgrades-to-provide-more-freight-transit-travel-options--39706 (http://www.progressiverailroading.com/csx_transportation/article/South-Florida-rail-upgrades-to-provide-more-freight-transit-travel-options--39706)

Instead of Jacksonville dredging it's port to allow for the larger ships Miami took the lead.  Now we have to run all that freight through the entire state of Florida instead of providing jobs at our port.  By the way, dredging Miami's port has been a huge environmental disaster as pretty much all of the coral around Miami is dead or dying from all the sediment that was kicked up in the dredging project.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/us/despite-protections-miami-port-project-smothers-coral-reef-in-silt.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/us/despite-protections-miami-port-project-smothers-coral-reef-in-silt.html?_r=0)
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/150226-miami-biscayne-bay-florida-coral-dredging-channels-environment/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/150226-miami-biscayne-bay-florida-coral-dredging-channels-environment/)

(https://www.citizensagainstthetrain.com/sites/default/files/content/florida-rail-network.jpg)

^AAF is building a new line to Orlando from the FEC main line near Cocoa.  This rail system won't be using CSX tracks. Also, the state now owns the old CSX line through Orlando.

Quote from: thelakelander on December 24, 2015, 10:04:39 PM
^AAF is building a new line to Orlando from the FEC main line near Cocoa.  This rail system won't be using CSX tracks. Also, the state now owns the old CSX line through Orlando.

Once the freight gets to Jax it most likely will be transported on CSX lines to points north and west.  Also, any All Aboard Florida connections with Tampa and Jacksonville from Orlando would probably make use of CSX lines unless new track is laid. 

As appealing as 'high speed rail' sounds it's really just track upgrades for the increase in freight traffic from Miami.  A few token All Aboard Florida trains will run for a period of time before the operation goes bankrupt and taxpayers foot the bill for the rail bonds.

Interesting article on the state of high speed trains in the US.  http://gizmodo.com/americas-trains-suck-because-most-americans-dont-ride-t-1704575519 (http://gizmodo.com/americas-trains-suck-because-most-americans-dont-ride-t-1704575519)

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 24, 2015, 11:07:59 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on December 24, 2015, 10:04:39 PM
^AAF is building a new line to Orlando from the FEC main line near Cocoa.  This rail system won't be using CSX tracks. Also, the state now owns the old CSX line through Orlando.

Once the freight gets to Jax it most likely will be transported on CSX lines to points north and west.  Also, any All Aboard Florida connections with Tampa and Jacksonville from Orlando would probably make use of CSX lines unless new track is laid. 

As appealing as 'high speed rail' sounds it's really just track upgrades for the increase in freight traffic from Miami.  A few token All Aboard Florida trains will run for a period of time before the operation goes bankrupt and taxpayers foot the bill for the rail bonds.

Interesting article on the state of high speed trains in the US.  http://gizmodo.com/americas-trains-suck-because-most-americans-dont-ride-t-1704575519 (http://gizmodo.com/americas-trains-suck-because-most-americans-dont-ride-t-1704575519)

You should really stop.  Especially with the whole CSX thing since AAF has absolutely nothing to do with CSX.

^^Naldo
You do realize that FECR does not need the second track that AAF is installing to handle any conceivable increase in freight due to the Panama canal or other causes? As recently as 10 years ago FECR ran almost twice as many trains as they do today using a single track railway. Why would FECI spend $2B on expanding half of their existing route to Jacksonville if they only wanted to run more freight trains. What you say makes no sense.

I would not be surprised if you live on the Treasure Coast. There are plenty of NIMBYS there that have spread misinformation such as what you are saying here. Give KC Traylor my regards when you talk to her next :-)

Sorry but your spin on the railroad system and it's operation barely makes any sense at all. The posts have that definite TROLL slant.

Be that as it may, no passenger connection to Jacksonville from Orlando on AAF is going to Amtrak or CSX, they will use their own track from MCO to Cocoa and hence north to JAX.

Your information about the 'Money Losing Long-Distance Trains' sound like a parroting of certain anti-rail publications which use Amtrak's own twisted accounting against them. Recent investigation (and I believe we'll all be seeing much more of this soon enough) has shown that the 'MONEY MAKING HSR IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR' is not what Amtrak would have us believe. The short version is the NEC is not charged with it's own maintenance, those charges are carried by the MONEY LOSING LONG DISTANCE TRAINS... Uh huh? In other words if Amtrak could or would get their numbers straight, we'd be seeing many of those long-distance trains breaking even or better. Moreover we'd be seeing a fair and equitable investment in expansion and improvement of the long-distance trains which have seen nothing but cuts since 1971. Something is rotten in Washington, and Amtrak smells to high heaven, but it's not the fault of the trains or some imagined lack of riders.

Lastly, the (Orlando-Cocoa) track AAF is laying will see very little freight use as track structure should be somewhat flexible, building track for heavy slower freight and faster lightweight passenger trains is two completely different endeavors. In other words if FEC ran it's freight trains over the High Speed Passenger track in France, those passenger trains would have to slow to 80-90mph. Likewise if you ran those fast trains down the FEC or CSX you wouldn't want to ride, that track structure would be far too stiff and it would buck you around like a mechanical bull. So the crazy talk about they are secretly building freight track is pure BS. No doubt some freight track will have to be altered, added or subtracted to make the system work, but exclusive freight track this certainly isn't.

^^Ocklawaha
Actually according to AAF and comments made by FECR people, the freight railway will use the new infrastructure being built by AAF on the route to Cocoa. Both tracks will be used by FECR freight trains and AAF passenger trains.  That's the only way the route can handle 32 more trains each day. 110mph passenger trains will coexist with 60-70mph freight trains. There will be double crossovers spaced every 8-10 miles according to the track plans I have seen from the FRA EIS documents. AAF trains will be given priority and the freight trains will move out the way is my understanding. In Martin and St Lucie Counties there will be two stretches of triple track on each side of the St Lucie River to enable staging of freight trains across the single track drawbridge at Stuart in order to minimize bridge closure times. The third (center) track will be used as a slower speed passing track for freight trains much like the ICRR used in Illinois years ago.

Now regarding the freight traffic to Orlando (and Tampa?) that Lakelander mentioned.... well let me just say that I have heard anything is possible.  There is an agreement with Deseret Ranches and the CFX authority where a freight track can be built alongside the Beach line highway and AAF track.  However, the GOAA was adamant that no freight trains could pass through airport property. But from what I heard, FECR might be able to operate freight trains to Orlando.  Maybe to a point east of the airport?

^There's a rail line that goes around the south side of the airport to a coal power plant that's east of the airport. Any potential connection to it will tie the new AAF line into the line the state operates Sunrail on.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 24, 2015, 07:04:35 PM
AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

The potential great revenue generator here would be FEC having new found freight access to Florida's third largest MSA.

QuoteJacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The significant difference is that FEC already owns and operates the track through DT Jax. Getting into Tampa is a lot more complicated and requires more upfront investment.

QuoteThe potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

I don't think it is impossible. Just significantly more expensive to the point where massive public investment may be needed to pull it off.

QuoteEdit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

IMO, the best thing Tampa can do is find a way to get FEC access into the port.

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 12:48:45 AM
^There's a rail line that goes around the south side of the airport to a coal power plant that's east of the airport. Any potential connection to it will tie the new AAF line into the line the state operates Sunrail on.

Exactly! Any FECR freight operations will use the Orlando Utilities rail line for local service such as intermodal. I would not be surprised if FECR and OUC are talking at this time. It would be somewhat easy to set up.  The only issue would be the STB regarding any use of AAF track. Honestly, I can see more benefit to FECR expanding to Tampa than to Orlando.  They can already serve Orlando from their facilities in Brevard quite easily. Tampa would bring additional customers who might otherwise use CSX. The distance from Brevard to Tampa is such that CSX has an advantage with their new intermodal distribution center in Polk County.

And I am not sure how rigid the GOAA is on enforcing the freight train ban. If FECR can get that lifted, then a line west to Tampa would definitely be more profitable for FECI. Perhaps FECI could use that as a bargaining chip with GOAA. Allow them to build to Tampa = More airport passengers from Tampa = FECR freight to Tampa. It could be a win-win situation. 

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 01:15:13 AM

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 24, 2015, 07:04:35 PM
AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

The potential great revenue generator here would be FEC having new found freight access to Florida's third largest MSA.

QuoteJacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The significant difference is that FEC already owns and operates the track through DT Jax. Getting into Tampa is a lot more complicated and requires more upfront investment.

QuoteThe potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

I don't think it is impossible. Just significantly more expensive to the point where massive public investment may be needed to pull it off.

QuoteEdit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

IMO, the best thing Tampa can do is find a way to get FEC access into the port.

But the expense of building 40 miles of new 125mph passenger rail track can't be rationalized by a goal of potential new freight revenue. It is my belief that any freight service to Orlando will be of FECR's own accord.

Access to downtown Tampa can be done via I4. It isn't that difficult and if the ROI is met, it can be done without public subsidies. If the TOD potential is great enough, AAF will build to Tampa. There is enough room for that i believe.

As far as the Port of Tampa, there is no easy way to gain access to it without going through CSX as well as established neighborhoods between the port and I4. And CSX would never permit FECR access to their main source of revenue in Tampa. The best FECR could hope for is new intermodal business from Orlando and Tampa. Like I commented on above, reaching Orlando isn't much of a benefit to FECR as its too close to the existing route in Brevard County. Providing intermodal service to Tampa would be a big deal for FECR. They could build a new TOFC/COFC yard nearby I4 east of Tampa for a relatively cheap amount of money.

I'd have to go back and look at the plans, but as of now, no high speed rail envelop exists on I-4, the Beach Line or 417 in the Orlando area. These highways will have to be completely rebuilt, making the expense to expand to Tampa, close to double the cost of the entire Orlando/Miami line. IMO, some public subsidies will be needed somewhere for a $2 billion, 80 mile extension of new infrastructure on public ROW.

Also, from day one, it's been my understanding that revenue was going to be generated by a lot more than just passenger rail. To say that potential profits/benefits for the affiliate entities under the FECI and FECR umbrella don't matter pretty much goes against my understanding of the project altogether.

Quote from: spuwho on December 24, 2015, 11:59:28 AM

RattlerGator, does this help?

Yes, it certainly does. Thank you.

Tampa would probably be a better next phase if AAF were in a vacuum where the only goal was passenger service. But as it's happening that way, it's hard to see it happening next, considering level of investment and the fact that the Jacksonville route is largely already in place. Of course none of it will happen if they don't get good return on investment to Orlando.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 25, 2015, 01:35:19 AM

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 01:15:13 AM

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 24, 2015, 07:04:35 PM
AAF has found money for 40 miles of new construction to reach a station that they don't control and with no possible TOD benefits to them at the Orlando airport. There are no obvious AAF revenue streams available to FECI north of WPB along the FECR route to Cocoa, similar to the route along I4. Although I would think that AAF would build stations near Lakeland and at Disney World (seeing how a lot of their senior team has worked for Disney in the past lol).

The potential great revenue generator here would be FEC having new found freight access to Florida's third largest MSA.

QuoteJacksonville and Tampa are similar in that the most likely location for an AAF station in each city is surrounded by available land owned by government agencies. I did a check and discovered that most of the area in Tampa around the previously proposed HSR station (and likely location for AAF) is owned by the city, county or state. Both potential sites in each city are close to public transit centers. Here in downtown Tampa there is over $2-3B in planned development within 2 miles of the train station site over the next 10 years or so. I would think that FECI would be taking that into consideration as well.

The significant difference is that FEC already owns and operates the track through DT Jax. Getting into Tampa is a lot more complicated and requires more upfront investment.

QuoteThe potential for AAF coming to Tampa is not as impossible as you might think.  There are good reasons why there is ongoing (but unreported) progress here in Tampa in regards to AAF.

I don't think it is impossible. Just significantly more expensive to the point where massive public investment may be needed to pull it off.

QuoteEdit: I might add that maximizing passenger numbers does increase the value and revenue streams from related TOD development. If Tampa can add X numbers of passengers using their system, that benefits their investments in WPB, FTL, and MIA as much as anyplace else. I believe that AAF needs to expand out of Orlando in order to realize their true potential. Their Orlando site is not ideal to maximize revenue from non passenger sources.

IMO, the best thing Tampa can do is find a way to get FEC access into the port.

But the expense of building 40 miles of new 125mph passenger rail track can't be rationalized by a goal of potential new freight revenue. It is my belief that any freight service to Orlando will be of FECR's own accord.

Access to downtown Tampa can be done via I4. It isn't that difficult and if the ROI is met, it can be done without public subsidies. If the TOD potential is great enough, AAF will build to Tampa. There is enough room for that i believe.

As far as the Port of Tampa, there is no easy way to gain access to it without going through CSX as well as established neighborhoods between the port and I4. And CSX would never permit FECR access to their main source of revenue in Tampa. The best FECR could hope for is new intermodal business from Orlando and Tampa. Like I commented on above, reaching Orlando isn't much of a benefit to FECR as its too close to the existing route in Brevard County. Providing intermodal service to Tampa would be a big deal for FECR. They could build a new TOFC/COFC yard nearby I4 east of Tampa for a relatively cheap amount of money.

Welcome back Brian-Tampa.

There is an old saying in railroad circles that says people make the trains move but freight pays the bills.

The Cocoa-Orlando segment will move freight at night and FEC will pay AAF trackage rights to do so. It sounds funny since they are under the same corporate umbrella, but this a key way that AAF as the "owner" of the ROW will recover revenue.

The opposite is also true, AAF has to pay FEC a per mile trackage rights fee to traverse the JAX-MIA ROW, but many suspect it will be trivial compared to what AAF will charge FEC for the Orlando leg.

A few years ago I calculated the amount AAF would have to recover per paying fare to cover the cost of the ROW lease from OOCEA, and if memory serves it came out to like .44 per fare.

Any AAF extensions to Tampa have an unclear freight relationship potential.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 24, 2015, 11:58:18 PM
^^Ocklawaha
Actually according to AAF and comments made by FECR people, the freight railway will use the new infrastructure being built by AAF on the route to Cocoa. Both tracks will be used by FECR freight trains and AAF passenger trains.  That's the only way the route can handle 32 more trains each day. 110mph passenger trains will coexist with 60-70mph freight trains. There will be double crossovers spaced every 8-10 miles according to the track plans I have seen from the FRA EIS documents. AAF trains will be given priority and the freight trains will move out the way is my understanding. In Martin and St Lucie Counties there will be two stretches of triple track on each side of the St Lucie River to enable staging of freight trains across the single track drawbridge at Stuart in order to minimize bridge closure times. The third (center) track will be used as a slower speed passing track for freight trains much like the ICRR used in Illinois years ago.

Now regarding the freight traffic to Orlando (and Tampa?) that Lakelander mentioned.... well let me just say that I have heard anything is possible.  There is an agreement with Deseret Ranches and the CFX authority where a freight track can be built alongside the Beach line highway and AAF track.  However, the GOAA was adamant that no freight trains could pass through airport property. But from what I heard, FECR might be able to operate freight trains to Orlando.  Maybe to a point east of the airport?

Yes, my response was primarily aimed at 'NaldoAveKnights' ridiculous posts. I thought a little railroad 101 might help. No doubt that much faster track from Cocoa to Orlando is going to be more restricted to light-weight or passenger equipment. When the freight moves in that direction it will require additional track as the passenger main will be class-7 track and as Amtrak has discovered in the Northeast, freight and class-7 don't mix well for the reasons explained to 'NaldoAveKnights.'

Lake and I have long stood on the theory that the OUC trackage is more important to this then anyone is saying. It gets the FEC RY freight way east of the Orlando airport, south of the passenger terminal and west of the airport rejoining the 'A' line just south of the Sand Lake Road Sunrail stop. You also have easy access to the Orlando Intermodal Facility and Taft Yard which is more/less at the Sunrail Sand Lake station.

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5628/23598608069_50ac76fca9_b.jpg)

I also believe that IF AAF ever gets to Tampa as a passenger carrier, as in Jacksonville, they'd be insane not to use the Union Station. Tampa Union Station is fully restored and has more then ample room for service facilities and terminal trackage. A garage with office towers over the top or packed around the old rail yard and you'd have an amazing operation. Connect it to downtown via streetcar and BRT and toss in commuter rail and the old station would be back to it's glory years. 

I'm still very interested to see what alignment they decide on for the Cocoa-Orlando leg.  I am assuming they are going to at least try to get their tracks into OUC's ROW from 528 to OIA.

Last time I saw, the alignment was it running along 528 and turning south at 436.

That is essentially what they are building at OIA right now. The bridges from the current terminals to the new station are actually going up and probably 5-10 panels are already in place while the bents for the remains portion are up. It's getting easier to see the layout. I'm going to see if I can pull some strings and get the two of us on the property with cameras.

One thing is a certainty, when that Cocoa-Orlando gap closes, the 'A' line is redundant.

Another fun thing to watch is the 'Orlando freight bypass,' which has been studied since at least the 1970's. Completing the loop from the Eastside generating plant to the Sanford/Oviedo area where it would tie back into the CSX A-Line. I haven't seen any recent cost estimates, but they will have to be weighed against moving through freight traffic over the S-Line or the new FEC JAX-COCOA-MCO route. I'm pretty sure the A-Line will be toast unless a regional freight carrier, shortline or a primary passenger carrier take over.

The A-line seems like the perfect candidate for commuter rail between Jax and Clay County.

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 25, 2015, 05:26:29 PM
Another fun thing to watch is the 'Orlando freight bypass,' which has been studied since at least the 1970's. Completing the loop from the Eastside generating plant to the Sanford/Oviedo area where it would tie back into the CSX A-Line. I haven't seen any recent cost estimates, but they will have to be weighed against moving through freight traffic over the S-Line or the new FEC JAX-COCOA-MCO route. I'm pretty sure the A-Line will be toast unless a regional freight carrier, shortline or a primary passenger carrier take over.

The fate of the A line for freight was determined when it was sold to FDOT to kick off SunRail.  CSX would not have sold it if they had to much invested in it for online customers.

Right 'SPUWHO,' Florida is a terminal state for rail, nothing is 'just passing through,' therefore it is prime territory for terminal, shortline and regional carriers to assume operations of the Class 1's. As recently as the 80's/90's the government was still trying to figure a way to create rail competition in Tampa/St. Pete after allowing the SCL merger of the late 60's wipe it out. Regionals taking over much of the Florida trackage would serve this long term agenda.

Lake, Take it a step further, it makes the perfect candidate for a 'Coaster' 'Surflilner' or CalTrain type service

FDOT/MULTI-AGENCY STATE SUPPORTED REGIONAL TRAINS from:
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-LAKELAND-TAMPA

Add Commuter Rail from:
JACKSONVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-PANAMA-BUSCH-AIRPORT ROAD-YULEE
JACKSONVILLE-ORANGE PARK-GREEN COVE SPRINGS-PALATKA
DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-POINCIANA
TAMPA-PLANT CITY-LAKELAND-AUBURNDALE
TAMPA-OLDSMAR-DUNEDIN-CLEARWATER-ST.PETE

Add AAF from:
JAX-ST. AUGUSTINE-DAYTONA BEACH-COCOA-ORLANDO
JAX-ST. AUGUSTINE-DAYTONA BEACH-COCOA-WEST PALM-FT. LAUDERDALE-MIAMI

Add Amtrak from:
JAX-SAVANNAH-COLUMBIA-RALEIGH-WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK
JAX-SAVANNAH-CHARLESTON-FAYETTEVILLE-WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-LAKELAND-TAMPA
JAX-PALATKA-DELAND-SANFORD-WINTER PARK-ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-WINTER HAVEN-SEBRING-WEST PALM-FT. LAUDERDALE-MIAMI
JAX-TALLAHASSEE-PENSACOLA-MOBILE-BILOXI-NEW ORLEANS

Now if FDOT will just figure out that more and more people are living in Waldo (Gainesville)-Ocala-Wildwood (The Villages) - Dade City, the 20 year M/L future is looking pretty darn bright for passenger rail in Florida.

Even slow moving freight trains can be dangerous.  This week:  http://www.clickorlando.com/news/train-derails-in-viera (http://www.clickorlando.com/news/train-derails-in-viera)

Not sure how great things will be with 125 mph trains roaring through the countryside.  I'm just a concerned Florida citizen with no ties to the train industry.  There will be train wrecks, there will be people getting killed with All Aboard Florida.  Why spend taxpayer money to create another mode of transportation to get from Miami to Orlando?  American Airlines flies from Miami to Orlando for $55 and the trip takes 1 hour.  There's multiple Greyhound buses from Miami to Orlando that take 4 1/2 hours and cost $30.  There's a daily Amtrak train from Miami to Orlando that costs $44 and the trip takes 5 hours. 

Point is that's three ways to get from Miami to Orlando that don't involve a car or taxpayer funded bonds.

Soon, there will be four ways!

So highways, airports and Amtrak aren't taxpayer funded? Plus people dying in train wrecks is probably the lowest concern on the list. WAAAAYYY more people die in car crashes each year yet here we are in the midst of thriving car culture. This is a tourist funded project so I say hell yes!

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 10:10:56 PM
Soon, there will be four ways!

If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

If the comfort of watching the countryside wiz by is the primary appeal then surely they would choose the $44 Amtrak ticket for the same trip and enjoy an extra 2 hours in the dining car, swilling cocktails and watching North by Northwest.

Your posts are so far out in fantasyland that we can't get a radar fix on them!

The logic is so twisted. According to you we should invest more in highways even though gas tax dollars are shrinking, traffic is increasing and the nation is facing a crisis it can't afford to fix with failing roads and bridges. Right here in Jacksonville at least 3 of our major bridges have scored unsafe, while in some states virtually all of them are unsafe. Highways are the most deadly mode of travel on the planet and we cannot build our way out of that problem.

You want us to continue to dump money into subsidizing airlines and airports even though they are the most inefficient users of fossil fuel.

Amtrak? Why continue to prop up a route that takes 9 hours from Jacksonville to Miami and 5 from Orlando when we have a private company with more then 100 years experience is willing to take the risk and cut that travel time to 3 hours.

You've harped on and on about safety, yet the FEC RY has been the winner of the National Railroad Safety awards for decades now. That derailment last week? Nobody hurt.

You apparently have no idea how the trains will operate with your '125mph trains blowing through towns' statement. FACT: no train will operate at 125 mph if there is a single grade crossing on that segment of track. This means the 125 mph track will be between Orlando and Cocoa and there is not a single town and won't be a single crossing on that line. South of Cocoa they will follow the same 79/90 mph speeds that Amtrak uses. Trains have speed limits just like autos do, if a town restricts their speed, and it is approved, then they will slow down.

As for who will pay what to ride, you don't have a clue, the price of tickets are not set yet and when they are they will be market rate., no more, no less.

Now can we stop with the 'STOP BIG CHOO CHOO' NONSENSE?

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 07:58:47 AM
I'd have to go back and look at the plans, but as of now, no high speed rail envelop exists on I-4, the Beach Line or 417 in the Orlando area.

actually there's more "reserved" room than you think...at least there was back in 2004...back then, there was a plan for HOV lanes, which are now of course tolled express lanes....and then room for rail in the median or the side of the highways

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 25, 2015, 10:58:12 PM
If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

two more questions that may answer your first:

will AAF always cost $43 or is that the highest fare?
can people always get a flight for $55, or is this the 14-day or 21-day purchase?

@Ock
Actually per the track charts in the EIS, MAS (max authorized speed) on the FECR between WPB and Cocoa is 110mph for passenger and 70mph for freights. There are some areas of 55mph running in Ft Pierce and even lower near Stuart at 35mph, IIRC. There is no listed freight MAS for the new route to Orlando from Cocoa.

@tufsu1
Checkout  http://www.tampabayexpress.com/master-plan/   under appendix A for the I-4 route maps and you will see how FDOT has carved out a typical 44ft wide section in the median. I believe it is labeled as 'intermodal' ROW now. There is a narrow spot between plant city and the Polk County parkway interchange near county line road. I've been told that the lead project engineer for this toll lane project worked on the old HSR project and is aware of the requirements to put rail down the median.

@naldo
The travel time is 3 hours, not 3.5 hours. And AAF has previously said they will use demand based pricing much like the airlines do.  So not every ticket will cost $143 and buying in advance could result in a significant reduction of fare. I feel like I am up against the FNAA/CARE nimby machine here. So much misinformation...

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 25, 2015, 11:58:20 PM

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 25, 2015, 10:58:12 PM
If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

two more questions that may answer your first:

will AAF always cost $43 or is that the highest fare?
can people always get a flight for $55, or is this the 14-day or 21-day purchase?

One advantage of trains is they tend to take you from the city center to the city center - you don't have to travel in and out of a distant suburb. So if you were going somewhere for business or shopping or something, it might be better to take a train and not deal with having to rent a car. Not sure how much that would happen in FL, but it's a point.

Another good thing about trains is you can show up 10 minutes before your train leaves. That's not the way it works with planes.

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 25, 2015, 11:55:32 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on December 25, 2015, 07:58:47 AM
I'd have to go back and look at the plans, but as of now, no high speed rail envelop exists on I-4, the Beach Line or 417 in the Orlando area.

actually there's more "reserved" room than you think...at least there was back in 2004...back then, there was a plan for HOV lanes, which are now of course tolled express lanes....and then room for rail in the median or the side of the highways

Yes. In the Orlando area some of those plans have been updated for the I-4 Ultimate and Beyond the Ultimate projects. For example, the rail envelop north of Orlando has been altered and will now run between 472 and I-95. I'm not saying adding rail in the middle of I-4 between Orlando and Tampa can't be done. I'm saying I seriously doubt it can be built with 100% private dollars. Those streets and many interchanges will have to be altered to accommodate rail in the Orlando area. If I recall, the old 80-mile HSR project cost something like $2.5 to $3 billion to build. The entire Miami/Orlando project is $1.5 billion and opens the door to several additional revenue streams for AAF and affiliated FECI and FECR entities. Again, not saying it can't be done. I just believe whoever does it will need a completely different financial game plan and that plan will probably involve major public subsidies  (not that I'm against that either ).

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 26, 2015, 12:20:23 AM
@Ock
Actually per the track charts in the EIS, MAS (max authorized speed) on the FECR between WPB and Cocoa is 110mph for passenger and 70mph for freights. There are some areas of 55mph running in Ft Pierce and even lower near Stuart at 35mph, IIRC. There is no listed freight MAS for the new route to Orlando from Cocoa.

Funny thing is I actually had the track charts in front of me when I wrote that! The point to our space cadet troll is that there ARE speed limits, there are not crossings on track rated 125mph and above.

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 25, 2015, 11:58:20 PM

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 25, 2015, 10:58:12 PM
If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

two more questions that may answer your first:

will AAF always cost $43 or is that the highest fare?
can people always get a flight for $55, or is this the 14-day or 21-day purchase?

Right now several flights a day from American Airlines are available a few days out at $55.  Not sure if that is representative of the market most of the time, I just did a search on kayak.  Not sure what All Aboard Florida will charge, however, $143 is the figure All Aboard Florida provided to the press for business class ticket from Miami to Orlando.

http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-releases-preliminary-fare-range/nmQLF/ (http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-releases-preliminary-fare-range/nmQLF/)

What's the business fare for American Airlines and the regular fare for the train? How much does it cost to park at the airport? What about if someone wants to take the train from Orlando to West Palm Beach or Fort Lauderdale instead of Miami? A straight flight from end point to end point gives you no options.

The Palm Beach Post article you link to also indicates the $143 fare is for business class service from Miami to Orlando. I feel like I am feeding a Troll as Ock says.  The $55 fare is for a single 10pm flight on news years eve and also on Friday at same time. The rest of the day the cheapest fare is $155 for cattle car coach. No comparison man. $143 business class on AAF compared to $234 on news years eve for comparable first Class service on AA.Com for all flights throughout the day.

https://www.aa.com/reservation/revenueSearchProcess.do?bookingPathStateId=1451173327022-352&v_locale=en_US&v_mobileUAFlag=AA&bookingPathStateId=1451173327022-352#jcarousel-date-link

Edit: this is a pasted version of AA flights for 12/31/15 sorry I couldn't find a way to attach a screenshot.  Maybe someone could help me with that 


Choose Flights
Find Flights Choose Flights Travelers Trip Options Select Seats Review & Pay Finish
Choose Your
Departure Flight
Lowest Fare
from $55
Refundable
from $282
Business / First
from $134
Flights Departure Arrival
Sort Options
1637 
07:00 am
MIA
08:04 am
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
1 Seat left
195 
09:39 am
MIA
10:48 am
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
1061 
12:30 pm
MIA
01:33 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
2464 
02:00 pm
MIA
03:01 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
1334 
03:25 pm
MIA
04:28 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
2285 
04:50 pm
MIA
05:54 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
2447 
05:44 pm
MIA
06:49 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
113 
08:19 pm
MIA
09:25 pm
MCO $155 $184 $235 $234
2461 
09:59 pm
MIA
11:07 pm
MCO $55
2 Seats left
$84
2 Seats left
$135
2 Seats left
$134

I call bullshit. I am done with this. Why do I even respond?

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 26, 2015, 05:50:58 PM

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 25, 2015, 11:58:20 PM

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 25, 2015, 10:58:12 PM
If All Aboard Florida prefers to run trains with nobody in them, sure.  Why would anyone pay $143 for the a 3 1/2 hour Miami to Orlando trip when they can fly in an hour for $55? 

two more questions that may answer your first:

will AAF always cost $43 or is that the highest fare?
can people always get a flight for $55, or is this the 14-day or 21-day purchase?

Right now several flights a day from American Airlines are available a few days out at $55.  Not sure if that is representative of the market most of the time, I just did a search on kayak.  Not sure what All Aboard Florida will charge, however, $143 is the figure All Aboard Florida provided to the press for business class ticket from Miami to Orlando.

http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-releases-preliminary-fare-range/nmQLF/ (http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/business/all-aboard-florida-releases-preliminary-fare-range/nmQLF/)

I've had a lot of practice on TC Palm over the past few years.  The rabid opponents of AAF just don't think logically or with reason (like KC Traylor or ex CEO Crandall of Amercan Airlines). They are a separate breed to themselves that live in their own little world.  I read an article on TBO.Com today that says Florida will have 26 Million residents by 2030! Just imagine how that will work out without alternatives to cars and planes...

http://www.tbo.com/news/politics/squeezing-them-in-floridas-growing-population-will-come-at-a-price-20151225/


But people like Naldo are so stuck in the past and refuse to acknowledge the need for passenger rail service here in Florida.

Quote from: stephendare on December 26, 2015, 06:53:06 PM
thanks for the response, Naldo Ave Knight is one of our most committed trolls on things like this, Ive rarely found an argument coming from the poster that hasn't been disingenuously framed.

Please continue posting as there are many many thousands of other readers who aren't purposefully dissembling.

Quote from: Ocklawaha on December 25, 2015, 11:31:04 PM
Your posts are so far out in fantasyland that we can't get a radar fix on them!

The logic is so twisted. According to you we should invest more in highways even though gas tax dollars are shrinking, traffic is increasing and the nation is facing a crisis it can't afford to fix with failing roads and bridges. Right here in Jacksonville at least 3 of our major bridges have scored unsafe, while in some states virtually all of them are unsafe. Highways are the most deadly mode of travel on the planet and we cannot build our way out of that problem.

You want us to continue to dump money into subsidizing airlines and airports even though they are the most inefficient users of fossil fuel.

Amtrak? Why continue to prop up a route that takes 9 hours from Jacksonville to Miami and 5 from Orlando when we have a private company with more then 100 years experience is willing to take the risk and cut that travel time to 3 hours.

You've harped on and on about safety, yet the FEC RY has been the winner of the National Railroad Safety awards for decades now. That derailment last week? Nobody hurt.

You apparently have no idea how the trains will operate with your '125mph trains blowing through towns' statement. FACT: no train will operate at 125 mph if there is a single grade crossing on that segment of track. This means the 125 mph track will be between Orlando and Cocoa and there is not a single town and won't be a single crossing on that line. South of Cocoa they will follow the same 79/90 mph speeds that Amtrak uses. Trains have speed limits just like autos do, if a town restricts their speed, and it is approved, then they will slow down.

As for who will pay what to ride, you don't have a clue, the price of tickets are not set yet and when they are they will be market rate., no more, no less.

Now can we stop with the 'STOP BIG CHOO CHOO' NONSENSE?

A hundred year company that's operated under a monopoly on freight travel up the east coast of Florida.  Not sure how well they will fare in competitive marketplace against cars, planes, buses, and even lowly Amtrak.

Most people enjoy a flight over a train, so yeah, we should continue subsidies to airports.

The train wreck last week in Viera on the Florida East Coast Railway caused no fatalities because the train was carrying freight.  If the train had been filled with people the outcome would have been much different.   

Even if trains crisscrossed the state it still wouldn't work for Home Depot runs, trips to the super market, etc.  Trains work great for situations such as daily commuting or snowbirds using the Sanford auto train.  Anyone who thinks trains are going to replace cars are not being realistic.  So yeah, we need to keep maintaining roads until teleportation is invented.

^These posts are classic examples of the logical fallacy of "shifting the goalposts". Every time one of the points is refuted or challenged, in comes another, different one.

Hahaha.....how did this turn into a discussion about trains replacing cars for trips to Home Depot and the supermarket? Lol, Naldo, you're all over the place.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 26, 2015, 12:20:23 AM
@tufsu1
Checkout  http://www.tampabayexpress.com/master-plan/   under appendix A for the I-4 route maps and you will see how FDOT has carved out a typical 44ft wide section in the median. I believe it is labeled as 'intermodal' ROW now. There is a narrow spot between plant city and the Polk County parkway interchange near county line road. I've been told that the lead project engineer for this toll lane project worked on the old HSR project and is aware of the requirements to put rail down the median.

FDOT has been struggling with how to preserve the rail envelope and do TBX in some areas....primarily in the Westshore district.  East of 50th Street on I-4, it pretty much won't be a problem.

Quote from: thelakelander on December 26, 2015, 08:40:42 AM
Yes. In the Orlando area some of those plans have been updated for the I-4 Ultimate and Beyond the Ultimate projects.

I know that "beyond the ultimate" is really just extensions north and south....but it is a terrible name...makes it sound like FDOT won't be done when the "ultimate" is built...you know, like maybe road building never ends ;)

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 26, 2015, 05:50:58 PM
Right now several flights a day from American Airlines are available a few days out at $55.  Not sure if that is representative of the market most of the time, I just did a search on kayak.  Not sure what All Aboard Florida will charge, however, $143 is the figure All Aboard Florida provided to the press for business class ticket from Miami to Orlando.

thank you for comparing apples to oranges.  As Lakelander put it, maybe you should compare business class airfare with regular class rail...after all, the comfort and services would be similar.

Luckily for AAF, that won't affect them as they will end in downtown Tampa. The only I-4 interchanges I'm aware of that might need rebuilding are I-4 at 559 and the eastern Polk County Parkway interchange.  I know that the  CSX bridge will be an issue in Lakeland as well. All other bridges from my understanding will be compatible with future rail alignments. That is why I say AAF won't have a big issue expanding to Tampa. FDOT is pretty much fixing the problem areas before AAF will build.

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 26, 2015, 08:34:16 PM

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 26, 2015, 12:20:23 AM
@tufsu1
Checkout  http://www.tampabayexpress.com/master-plan/   under appendix A for the I-4 route maps and you will see how FDOT has carved out a typical 44ft wide section in the median. I believe it is labeled as 'intermodal' ROW now. There is a narrow spot between plant city and the Polk County parkway interchange near county line road. I've been told that the lead project engineer for this toll lane project worked on the old HSR project and is aware of the requirements to put rail down the median.

FDOT has been struggling with how to preserve the rail envelope and do TBX in some areas....primarily in the Westshore district.  East of 50th Street on I-4, it pretty much won't be a problem.

The I-4 Ultimate updates can be found here:

http://i4ultimate.com  (http://i4ultimate.com)

Quote from: thelakelander on December 26, 2015, 08:17:01 PM
Hahaha.....how did this turn into a discussion about trains replacing cars for trips to Home Depot and the supermarket? Lol, Naldo, you're all over the place.

The idea of using a train on a regular basis in the state of Florida for other than daily commuting is absurd.  Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize $1.75 billion in bonds that will absolutely with 100% certainty go into default.  That is why the All Aboard Florida company exists separate from Florida East Coast Railway, when the bonds default it will not effect the parent company. 

Personally, I rather spend $1.75 billion on education so we don't have stupid voters allowing things like this to happen.

Brown University report on the finances behind All Aboard Florida: http://www.ircgov.com/Public_Notices/Rail/AAF-Friedman-Report.pdf (http://www.ircgov.com/Public_Notices/Rail/AAF-Friedman-Report.pdf)

The author, John Friedman, is a darling of the Obama administration, so political bias against public transit probably isn't at play here.  It's just straight facts.

"As an entity that is entirely privately owned, All Aboard Florida represents an inefficient use of tax-exempt bonds. These subsidies distort the allocation of capital towards this project and away from others that are potentially more efficient yet lack tax subsidies. The subsidies also reward the operating company and bondholders. The subsidies are not likely to lower ticket prices substantially, since ticket prices will be set based on the market for transportation in Southern Florida, and so consumers are unlikely to benefit substantially from the government subsidy (relative to unsubsidized private financing)."

"In addition to the large annual subsidy from the use of PABs, AAF will receive a number of other taxpayer subsidies from state and local sources.
The State of Florida and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are paying for the construction of an intermodal facility at Orlando International Airport, at the cost of $214 million. AAF will use this subsidized facility as the Orlando terminal for their service, saving them the costs of station construction. The State of Florida is also paying an initial subsidy to local governments along AAF's route for safety upgrades of $10 million. 22 Amortized at a 5% interest rate, the annual value of these subsidies is $11.2 million.
Another source of subsidies comes from counties along the AAF route, which will be required by Florida law to pay for the improvement and maintenance of road crossings as AAF converts the existing freight line to handle passenger rail service. The exact value of these subsidies is somewhat more difficult to calculate, but an estimate from Brevard County suggests that these costs are $300,000-$400,000 for just the crossings in that county (in which AAF trains will not stop at all). Scaling up for the entire rail line puts these subsidies at roughly $2 million annually."

The 21-mile I-4 Ultimate project in Orlando is $2.3 billion. It's 100% tax payer funded.

Lol, it will be a great sucker of money. However, it involves rubber wheels, so you won't get much complaining from those threatened by people actually having alternative mobility options.

2 points to be made.

1. The bonds are not backed by any taxpayer.

2. The report by Friedman was paid for by the anti-AAF group CARE.  So I look at that report as being biased. It lumped in the cost for the real estate development around the stations as being a cost to be repaid by train fare revenue. That's how bad that report was!

This is just more anti-AAF misinformation being repeated here.

^Great points.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 27, 2015, 02:27:44 PM
It lumped in the cost for the real estate development around the stations as being a cost to be repaid by train fare revenue. That's how bad that report was!

LOL!!!

My crystal ball:

I believe we'll see the stop in Cocoa taking shape around, possibly just before the announcement of the Jacksonville leg.

If Amtrak chooses to use the FEC RY east and south of Orlando, it is going to damage our position as the railroad gateway to Florida. Terminating new trains in Orlando is ominous.

Don't expect AAF to send more then 8 trains north of Cocoa unless they develop a massive real estate project locally. LaVilla is ripe for such an undertaking but they have possibilities in San Marco, San Jose, Bowden, Avenues Walk/Flagler, and in St. John's where the opportunity for a rail/air/highway terminal is possible.

Speeds on the Jacksonville St.Augustine segment will be in the 79-90 mph area, south of King in St. Augustine much higher speeds are a possibility as far south as Bunnell and from there to Daytona the curvy old narrow gauge right of way will be problematic.

Atlanta, FEC's long time operating agreements with Norfolk Southern, AAF, GDOT,'s rail dreams, could easily become something huge.

Tampa's hopes might depend on CSX's willingness to divest itself of the 'A' line and if they do, the northern half of it into JAX is going to be worthless.

Expect the NASA RR to reach the north side of Port Canaveral soon.

JACKSONVILLE SLEEPS.

^^@Ock

How does the A line impact AAF coming to Tampa? To CSX that line is still valuable west of Auburndale. I just can't see them being willing to sell that line to the competition. Maybe when the phosphate industry collapses in 20 years they will sell. But not yet...

I know you want AAF to end at TUS (Tampa Union Station) here, but I really don't think that is going to happen. AAF needs major TOD around stations and TUS in my opinion won't deliver that. The area is too confined with adjacent highways and not really situated properly. Why else is AAF working with FDOT now on the I-4 rail envelop? It's because they desire a better location for their Tampa station and related TOD then what TUS offers.

Since when did FDOT start working with AAF on I-4's rail easement?

Since when I first asked about 2 years ago is what I've been told by both AAF and by FDOT. There really is some preliminary stuff going on that most don't know about unless you ask ☺

FDOT has made sure that the rail envelope has been preserved for AAF. They aren't doing any design work, just coordination type stuff. It's all very preliminary type stuff for sure. But significant for its implications...

Quote from: thelakelander on December 27, 2015, 07:29:19 PM
Since when did FDOT start working with AAF on I-4's rail easement?

Interesting.  Some of the median is being considered for commuter rail and LRT in the Orlando area.

I am referring to the section west of SR 528 (convention center interchange).  Basically the same route as the HSR project...

Edit: I sent you a PM Lakelander

Quote from: thelakelander on December 27, 2015, 07:44:08 PM
Interesting.  Some of the median is being considered for commuter rail and LRT in the Orlando area.

Quote from: NaldoAveKnight on December 27, 2015, 11:55:03 AM
Brown University report on the finances behind All Aboard Florida: http://www.ircgov.com/Public_Notices/Rail/AAF-Friedman-Report.pdf (http://www.ircgov.com/Public_Notices/Rail/AAF-Friedman-Report.pdf)

The author, John Friedman, is a darling of the Obama administration, so political bias against public transit probably isn't at play here.  It's just straight facts.

"As an entity that is entirely privately owned, All Aboard Florida represents an inefficient use of tax-exempt bonds. These subsidies distort the allocation of capital towards this project and away from others that are potentially more efficient yet lack tax subsidies. The subsidies also reward the operating company and bondholders. The subsidies are not likely to lower ticket prices substantially, since ticket prices will be set based on the market for transportation in Southern Florida, and so consumers are unlikely to benefit substantially from the government subsidy (relative to unsubsidized private financing)."

"In addition to the large annual subsidy from the use of PABs, AAF will receive a number of other taxpayer subsidies from state and local sources.
The State of Florida and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are paying for the construction of an intermodal facility at Orlando International Airport, at the cost of $214 million. AAF will use this subsidized facility as the Orlando terminal for their service, saving them the costs of station construction. The State of Florida is also paying an initial subsidy to local governments along AAF's route for safety upgrades of $10 million. 22 Amortized at a 5% interest rate, the annual value of these subsidies is $11.2 million.
Another source of subsidies comes from counties along the AAF route, which will be required by Florida law to pay for the improvement and maintenance of road crossings as AAF converts the existing freight line to handle passenger rail service. The exact value of these subsidies is somewhat more difficult to calculate, but an estimate from Brevard County suggests that these costs are $300,000-$400,000 for just the crossings in that county (in which AAF trains will not stop at all). Scaling up for the entire rail line puts these subsidies at roughly $2 million annually."

This report from the economist from Brown was dismissed.

He conducted no due diligence beyond the mouse of his MacBook Pro. He spoke to no public or AAF officials. He reviewed no documentation from OOCEA on the ROW lease. It was a weak attempt at a hatchet job to undermine the RRIF loan request in Congress.

If I was an professor of economics, I would have given this guy an "F" .

Naldo, you are going to have to come up with some better data showing the demerits of the effort. I am up to seeing anything you have on it.

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 27, 2015, 07:54:38 PM
I am referring to the section west of SR 528 (convention center interchange).  Basically the same route as the HSR project...

Edit: I sent you a PM Lakelander

Quote from: thelakelander on December 27, 2015, 07:44:08 PM
Interesting.  Some of the median is being considered for commuter rail and LRT in the Orlando area.

Got it. I just sent a response. If anyone is interested, you can find the old HSR plans and I-4 Beyond and Beyond the Ultimate plans here:

http://www.i4express.com/general_project_documents.shtm

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 27, 2015, 06:19:22 PM
^^@Ock

How does the A line impact AAF coming to Tampa? To CSX that line is still valuable west of Auburndale. I just can't see them being willing to sell that line to the competition. Maybe when the phosphate industry collapses in 20 years they will sell. But not yet...

I know you want AAF to end at TUS (Tampa Union Station) here, but I really don't think that is going to happen. AAF needs major TOD around stations and TUS in my opinion won't deliver that. The area is too confined with adjacent highways and not really situated properly. Why else is AAF working with FDOT now on the I-4 rail envelop? It's because they desire a better location for their Tampa station and related TOD then what TUS offers.

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5661/24015568895_c9d588f97a_z.jpg)

The old railroad guy in me says that the 'S' line from Plant City south and west into Tampa could have capacity enhancements that would render the 'A' line of no consequence. CSX actually crosses the 'A' line in several places reaching down to the Bone Valley. Also the line through the Bone Valley itself if offered capacity increases could be reconnected with West Lake Wales, reestablishing the old Seaboard Cross-Florida Shortline. The reopened shortline should be good for 3 or so round trips daily from Tampa-Bartow-W. Lake Wale-Sebring-W. Palm Beach-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami.

(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1588/23387356074_0a7c1747a0_z.jpg)
TAMPA UNION STATION

For you Jaxson's that have no connection to Tampa, and to those who still believe that a 'back in movement' was a killer at Jacksonville Terminal, check out the fully restored TUS TAMPA UNION STATION.

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5685/23907338862_6e2d06639f_z.jpg)
BACK IN MOVE TO TUS IN 1974 (photo from 'Alco Mike')

(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1696/23388776923_c33a9a51cf_z.jpg)
BACK IN MOVE TO TUS TODAY

I like TUS as I'm thinking vertical not horizontal, not unlike downtown Miami, both JAX and TAMPA could use AAF's dense high-rise building concepts. There is great benefit to having all of your rail, and better yet, all of your surface options moving in and out of a single station and in that case TUS is a turn-key opportunity. Recent rail freight yard abandonments nearby, the apartments and vacant land to the west, all offer lots of opportunity to expand. I also think it would be cheaper to use the TUS and install new ramps on the Selmon then to blow an entirely new rail route and station through the middle of town. TUS as a historical working station also has the potential to anchor a huge revitalization of the entire area much as Los Angeles Union Passenger Terminal LAUPT has done.

As for CSX playing ball or our lousy Amtrak service in Florida consider that the state holds the keys to the biggest incentive in the world... MONEY. Call that taxes if you'd like but imagine if the state swapped tax exemption on property that carried passenger rail? Imagine that such a plan could include a sliding scale that could even rate and reward in kind. Just as an example 70% exemption for 2-6 round trips daily,  trains 90% on time and we'll exempt another 5%, food service another 5%, etc... State and member railroads share in promotion of the trains and we'd have a system of getting out of both Amtrak and improving our options. Florida should use that trump card and be a pioneer. 

I particularly appreciate that Orlando and Tampa use their respective historic passenger rail stations.  I believe that it is unfortunate that Jacksonville continues to use its 'Amshack' on Clifford Lane.

I understand that Amtrak is resisting moving downtown from its current location. Could be posturing. Why would they possibly want to stay in that location versus a renovated Jacksonville Terminal?

Perhaps relocation cost or ownership of the facility in use?

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 26, 2015, 08:47:31 PM
Luckily for AAF, that won't affect them as they will end in downtown Tampa. The only I-4 interchanges I'm aware of that might need rebuilding are I-4 at 559 and the eastern Polk County Parkway interchange.  I know that the  CSX bridge will be an issue in Lakeland as well. All other bridges from my understanding will be compatible with future rail alignments. That is why I say AAF won't have a big issue expanding to Tampa. FDOT is pretty much fixing the problem areas before AAF will build.

It won't affect AAF, but it might have a major impact on the potential for local/regional rail transit in Tampa Bay...of course, I'm far from convinced that FDOT has any real interest in seeing that come to fruition.

Quote from: exnewsman on December 29, 2015, 06:09:57 PM
I understand that Amtrak is resisting moving downtown from its current location. Could be posturing. Why would they possibly want to stay in that location versus a renovated Jacksonville Terminal?

Like Greyhound, they expect others to pay for new stations.  And of course right now, trains would have to back up in one direction due to the missing track to/from the southwest

Quote from: tufsu1 on December 29, 2015, 08:21:16 PM

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 26, 2015, 08:47:31 PM
Luckily for AAF, that won't affect them as they will end in downtown Tampa. The only I-4 interchanges I'm aware of that might need rebuilding are I-4 at 559 and the eastern Polk County Parkway interchange.  I know that the  CSX bridge will be an issue in Lakeland as well. All other bridges from my understanding will be compatible with future rail alignments. That is why I say AAF won't have a big issue expanding to Tampa. FDOT is pretty much fixing the problem areas before AAF will build.

It won't affect AAF, but it might have a major impact on the potential for local/regional rail transit in Tampa Bay...of course, I'm far from convinced that FDOT has any real interest in seeing that come to fruition.

If FDOT didn't have any real interest in seeing a transit line along I-275 to the airport, then they wouldn't be interested in buying land for a transit center in the west shore area of Tampa adjacent to I-275:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/transportation/plans-for-westshore-multimodal-transit-center-back-on-the-table/2252936

^That's a project tufsu1 knows a lot about! :)

Like so many of FDOT'S projects, 'multi-modal' means: cars, taxi's, BRT and regular buses as well as pogo sticks. R-A-I-L is a four letter word and the heart of much of this tripe throughout the nation comes from none other then CUTR at USF in Tampa which gets its grants and life blood from a dedicated highway/oil industry dominated by anti-rail 'think tanks.' Some of the white papers they have issued over the years read like a dogeared copy of DC comics; 'Buses have a greater passenger capacity then rail' was a classic line that made the press. Funny part is nobody bothered to explain that the buses would have to arrive and depart every few seconds and nobody could figure out how you'd get those passengers on or off.

So Florida? Tampa? Jacksonville? How long can you remain in the dark ages?

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 29, 2015, 09:36:03 PM

If FDOT didn't have any real interest in seeing a transit line along I-275 to the airport, then they wouldn't be interested in buying land for a transit center in the west shore area of Tampa adjacent to I-275:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/transportation/plans-for-westshore-multimodal-transit-center-back-on-the-table/2252936

My comment was directed at rail transit specifically.  The multimodal center would be used (at least initially) as a connection between regional express bus (BRT) and a possible extension of the airport's people mover.

Quote from: tufsu1 on January 04, 2016, 02:51:11 PM

Quote from: Brian_Tampa on December 29, 2015, 09:36:03 PM

If FDOT didn't have any real interest in seeing a transit line along I-275 to the airport, then they wouldn't be interested in buying land for a transit center in the west shore area of Tampa adjacent to I-275:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/transportation/plans-for-westshore-multimodal-transit-center-back-on-the-table/2252936

My comment was directed at rail transit specifically.  The multimodal center would be used (at least initially) as a connection between regional express bus (BRT) and a possible extension of the airport's people mover.

Latest news today, FDOT has closed on the property for the new intermodal station recently. $45M is a rather large amount to spend on just the land for a bus and people mover terminal.  It's apparent that FDOT believes that rail transit of some sort is in the future for this site. With the recent decision by CSX to be open to selling their Tampa Bay area freight lines to St Pete and Brooksville from Tampa, we are taking baby steps here on the path to commuter rail.

http://www.tbo.com/news/transportation/fdot-completes-purchase-of-hotel-property-for-future-westshore-transportation-center-20160105/

^ how much do you think the people mover will cost?  Try a couple hundred million dollars to extend it less than 3 miles.  Given that, $45 million for the land seems reasonable.  Its also not a bad deal if regional transit doesn't happen and FDOT eventually unloads the site for the same or more money.

As Lakelander noted, I am VERY familiar with the full history of the Westshore Multimodal Center...as well as the one that was proposed for downtown Tampa (FDOT bought that land too) and one proposed in the Gateway area of Pinellas County.

I enjoy reading MetroJax,   and all its various forums,   ie: local history, politics, etc.

I have never actually posted to it before now though.

I decided to actually login and post,  because i am interested in the expansion of rail service,   both locally in Jax,  and statewide also,  and because i would like to thank all of you for "spreading around" your knowledge.

I am not all that knowledgeable about the finances,  and the operations of the various Railroads.

But i am interested in Railroads due to my family history.

I am a member of a clan of old-line Florida families that have been here since the time of the Spanish.

Practically all of my extended ancestors worked for the various Railroads here in Florida,  including my Grandfather, great-Grandfather, and almost all Uncles....

My GrandFather died in the 70's,  and he had worked for what is now called CSX.    Over time,  it's name had changed so many times that he used to enjoy confusing me with their names:    Seaboard Airline, Seaboard Coastline, Atlantic Coastline,  etc.

I have railroad hats and lanterns all over my house.

At family get-togethers,  all of them used to make fun of me...   They called me the "BABY TRAIN CONDUCTOR"...

You see,   i never worked for a REAL railroad as far as THEY were concerned,    NO,   i was a lowly    "MONORAIL PILOT"   for Walt Disney World back in the 1970's.

I loved driving rails for Disney.

I really wish that the JTA would somehow make a deal with Disney to use Disney Monorails in in Jax.    They are so efficient,  and clean,  and quiet.

I have lost hope that any of this will happen in my lifetime though.

My Grandfather, my Father, and all my Uncles are long dead,  and i now have congestive heart failure.

But i still have hope,  and joke with my Grandson that some day either he,  or his Son will get to be a "BABY-TRAIN-CONDUCTOR"  like i did.

In any case,  thank you all for your information.