Election 2015 Liveblog!
(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/Politics/Mayoral-Race-2015/i-zh3zs6P/0/O/jacksonvilleflag.jpg)
We will be reporting as live as possible on developments throughout the day on the Municipal Elections for 2015. At stake are Council Races, The Supervisor of Elections, The Mayor's Office and the Sheriff! We will be joined by political consultant Ben Weaver for numbers and analysis throughout the day, and should be getting a special appearance by Meredith Johnson and a few others. Coverage will kick off shortly after 1, and will continue until everyone gives up, exhausted. Stay tuned and help us cover the elections!
Read More: http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-mar-election-2015-liveblog
It's getting exciting, sports fans! I'll be checking in and letting you know what I see when I start making the rounds this afternoon.
Click this link to see the total voter turnout so far: http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2015-Duval-First-Election-Voter-Turnout.aspx
By clicking the tabs on the graph page you can also view a breakdown of up to date totals by party. They are changing quickly and will throughout the day.
Click here for a breakdown of early voting: http://www.duvalelections.com/Portals/Duval/Documents/Early%20Voting/EVTotalsFirstElection2015.pdf
Current voting totals show more Democrat votes in than Republican with a healthy number of non party voters in the mix.
Currently at 11:47 Dem votes in: 53,829
Rep votes in : 50,764
Others: 12,982
It's that "Others" column that's so interesting to me.
You have to assume that Mayor Brown and other Dems running county-wide are happy to see the current stats. My belief is we'll see record turnout in 7, 8, 9, and 10 due to the spirited district races there. Turnout bumps there, I presume, would be to the Dems' benefit tonight.
Quote from: Jimmy on March 24, 2015, 11:55:14 AM
It's that "Others" column that's so interesting to me.
You have to assume that Mayor Brown and other Dems running county-wide are happy to see the current stats. My belief is we'll see record turnout in 7, 8, 9, and 10 due to the spirited district races there. Turnout bumps there, I presume, would be to the Dems' benefit tonight.
Me too Jimmy!
Currently Dems 54,263
Reps 52,229
Other: 13,087
Currenlty 116,521 votes in. Turnout is currently at 21.22 % Predicted turnout between 30 to 35 percent.
Lunch voters are now turning out and the totals are rising a bit more quickly.
Check out #jaxpol on Twitter. James Poindexter, Ben Weaver, Jon McGowan, and Alexander Pantinakis are talking turnout numbers. With some side commentary from Ben Davis of Intuition. Multi-partisan and good stuff.
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23jaxpol
Cool. Will do. :)
Currently Dem: 55,911
Rep : 53,127
Other: 13,534
Kristian Gore: Went to vote at 7am and the poll worker for Lenny Curry for Mayor Demanded my ballot be taken away while she disputed my photo ID. Apparently my VA card made me suspicious, fortunately the poll workers did not let her stop me from voting.
Spread the word. this was at St. Andrews Episcopal Church 7801 Lone Star Road.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 12:51:48 PM
Ok I am here with Ben Weaver at the riverside number crunching location. Ben and his team are monitoring the numbers and we are going to try and report this to you by the precincts.
Stephen, any way to get the report by districts?
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 12:00:13 PM
Currenlty 116,521 votes in. Turnout is currently at 21.22 % Predicted turnout between 30 to 35 percent.
What's considered the typical turnout?
Jerry Holland has this turnout percentage at 33%. Generally it runs between 30 to 35%
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 12:56:46 PM
Yes I think that we can do that.
Ben has pretty good access to the numbers
That would be spectacular. The precincts are hard for folks to follow.
Let's do this!
Jerry Holland
5 mins · Jacksonville, FL ·
We're just passing the halfway mark on Election Day. Turn out so far has been over 37,000 just today alone. Turn out over all is around 23% with 126,000 people having already cast ballots. For this and more information visit our website www.duvalelections.com.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 01:05:44 PM
(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/Politics/Mayoral-Race-2015/i-tKbFhfQ/0/XL/precinctmap2015duvalcounty-XL.jpg)
Here is the updated precinct map
The map is super helpful. Well done Stephen!
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 01:05:44 PM
(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/Politics/Mayoral-Race-2015/i-tKbFhfQ/0/XL/precinctmap2015duvalcounty-XL.jpg)
Here is the updated precinct map
The map is super helpful. Well done Stephen!
Quote from: ben america on March 24, 2015, 01:04:19 PM
Let's do this!
We are doing it. lol
You can get it at the precinct level here:
http://www.electionsfl.org/duval/mobile.php?service=voterturnout
Quote from: thelakelander on March 24, 2015, 12:54:15 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 12:00:13 PM
Currenlty 116,521 votes in. Turnout is currently at 21.22 % Predicted turnout between 30 to 35 percent.
What's considered the typical turnout?
Turnout in 2011 was 29.7 percent.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 01:16:53 PM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/1900084_10152842252993380_3810081528121344463_n.jpg?oh=7653a5be3f1e2cd1d603fbc9f8caea51&oe=55BE588C)
This is the party breakdown with 22% of the votes in
Glad to see you doing this Stephen. I don't have my computer and am using another so I was having trouble putting up the graphs. I will leave these updates to you now. Carry on! :)
The other group is going to be a key factor in how this race breaks down at the level of mayor and perhaps even the sheriffs race.
Thanks for doing this, everyone.
I would put the independents with Bishop actually. :) Brown is definitely holding his own. I am hoping the Dem turn out does not mean Kimberly Daniels is benefiting and she just may be.
Our current analysis projects a voter turnout of 28.41% with 155,999 votes cast.
What does this mean? It means we are playing with spreadsheets and projections. Let's see if our crack team of number nerds will hit the mark.
Interestingly District 8 has the highest voter turn out in the entire city at this point.
Since she's at large, all our precincts are belong to Kim.
(nerd alert!)
Daniels is an at large seat. The strong Dem turnout will help her in that there are two Republicans on her ticket. Anna Brosche is of course the best choice but not nearly enough voters know the candidates well. For those voting because of an R behind the name, Taylor may get many more votes than he deserves. This at large dist 1 race has me concerned.
The saving grace at At-Large 1 is Terry Reed, Democrat. Could take the race to a runoff.
Daniels will certainly benefit from a high Democratic turnout. A rising tide lifts all ships, and all that.
Quote from: Jimmy on March 24, 2015, 02:24:30 PM
The saving grace at At-Large 1 is Terry Reed, Democrat. Could take the race to a runoff.
I hope so. Anna in a run off beats all other candidates.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 02:31:10 PM
At 11Am Dems had a 3,350 vote lead. By 2PM, that has dropped 614 votes to 2,736 vote leads
I am sure Alvin Browns camp are doing the "happy dance" with this news.
This is a great! I was wondering about the turnout and this thread helps me.
Another district race getting a lot of voter action right now is District 7. That ballot currently carries 8 candidates. One might wonder at all the interest. Some of the candidates are on this ballot because they want to see Springfield thrive and community to do well. Others on this ballot have another overriding focus and this explains the presence of Reggie Gaffney on the ticket as well as George Spencer who garnered the support of Corrine Brown, took a plane trip to DC and also they both donated to each others campaigns. Why old port guy Gaffney who is presently under investigation for Medicaid fraud and the polished new, un politically tested attorney named Spencer who Corrine supports? It has to do with district 7 also being the home of the shipyards which is now the focus of Shad Khan and a major development. Cha ching and contracts galore for business in contracting as well as the potential increased and growing tax base due to the port and the restoration efforts in Springfield. There is the current sentiment that if Alvin Brown is re-elected Khan will one way or another end up getting the Shipyards land.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 02:50:47 PM
Looking at this chart, I would say that the possibility of Brown winning the election tonight has gone down to one in eight
Can you elaborate ?
Someone today, on a thread posted the link directly to SOE page showing updates every 15 minutes. Can you repost that, as I can't find it now. Thanks!
Stephen where are you getting the numbers that break down the republican vote to 60% Curry 40% Bishop for the votes already cast? IMO Alvin does not win outright today. He isn't going to come away with 50 + 1 of all votes cast and he has lot a lot of Dem support since the last election and almost all that he had from the republicans. The other (unknowns) are difficult to forecast I don't know that there is an accurate measure of their intention for that.
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 03:16:00 PM
Someone today, on a thread posted the link directly to SOE page showing updates every 15 minutes. Can you repost that, as I can't find it now. Thanks!
http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2015-Duval-First-Election-Voter-Turnout.aspx
Okay, just trying to follow your thinking. lol So many numbers. :)
Just 3 1/2 hours left to vote. Don't dilly dally! Get to the polls! :)
A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?
Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.
Quote from: thelakelander on March 24, 2015, 03:30:56 PM
A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?
Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.
Per the SOE website, on Election Day you must vote in the precinct in which you live.
Quote from: thelakelander on March 24, 2015, 03:30:56 PM
A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?
Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.
They must go to their precinct on election day.
This is why early voting is so convenient. Weekends, AND at any polling place you want.
Quote from: Bridges on March 24, 2015, 03:36:41 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on March 24, 2015, 03:30:56 PM
A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?
Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.
They must go to their precinct on election day.
This is why early voting is so convenient. Weekends, AND at any polling place you want.
Or they can go directly to the SOE office on Monroe.
I'm calling it the 3:330 spike. As I recall last election (Nov 2014) after 3:30 Dems begin to outperform whatever ground Republicans made up over lunch.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 03:38:42 PM
Quote from: Bridges on March 24, 2015, 03:36:41 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on March 24, 2015, 03:30:56 PM
A co-worker just asked if it is possible to vote without going to their designated precinct. Is this possible?
Evidently, they'd like to vote but the job is requiring to send them in the opposite direction of where they live.
They must go to their precinct on election day.
This is why early voting is so convenient. Weekends, AND at any polling place you want.
Or they can go directly to the SOE office on Monroe.
Thanks!
Diane, CC
Thanks for the info. I finally found it on this thread and it posted by you! It's cool to keep up when you have a chance and know its been updated every 15 minutes or so. I can't stay on twitter all day, so this is helpful for me and others who are interested in keeping up.
On related note; Thank you again for all your posts from the last few months in reference to local candidates running for office, from mayor to all city council candidates, showing your research and each candidate's thoughts based on their statements or sites, to all of us. It has been so helpful to have all this information at one place! I have used your posts to go back and check web sites, etc. on candidates I'm interested in. You were a giant assistance in all this!
So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:
Dems: 28.8%
Reps: 31.4%
Oth: 13.4%
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 03:12:22 PM
Brown needs 50% + 1
Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.
And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%
And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote
That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%
Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %
Stephen, Not to rain on any one's parade,but you stated "Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems,".......??? Even on this blog and the great, brilliant writers who engage us all do not agree that Brown vaguely get all Dems.....I for one is a strong Democrat and voting Bishop. I know many, many others who supported Brown 4 years ago, who are voting Bishop. The assumption in the Mayor's race should go out the window. I'm assuming we have NO idea how Dems vote until later tonight or tomorrow....
But, I am loving this thread and trying to keep up. The information you are posting is valuable and fun.
Have a stupid question here. Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large? I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 03:54:45 PM
Diane, CC
Thanks for the info. I finally found it on this thread and it posted by you! It's cool to keep up when you have a chance and know its been updated every 15 minutes or so. I can't stay on twitter all day, so this is helpful for me and others who are interested in keeping up.
On related note; Thank you again for all your posts from the last few months in reference to local candidates running for office, from mayor to all city council candidates, showing your research and each candidate's thoughts based on their statements or sites, to all of us. It has been so helpful to have all this information at one place! I have used your posts to go back and check web sites, etc. on candidates I'm interested in. You were a giant assistance in all this!
I so appreciate hearing this and am very pleased that the post have helped you during this election cycle. :)
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 04:10:30 PM
as of four o clock
total cast 148,093
Dems 67,005 = 45%
Repubs 64,621 =43%
Indies 16,467 =11%
The percentages are remaining remarkably consistent so far....
As my grandfather is fond of saying, just wait till 5, when the Republicans get out of work.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:07:24 PM
Have a stupid question here. Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large? I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?
Good question. The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville. The same holds true for Baldwin. :)
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 04:15:41 PM
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 04:01:20 PM
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 03:12:22 PM
Brown needs 50% + 1
Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.
And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%
And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote
That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%
Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %
Stephen, Not to rain on any one's parade,but you stated "Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems,".......??? Even on this blog and the great, brilliant writers who engage us all do not agree that Brown vaguely get all Dems.....I for one is a strong Democrat and voting Bishop. I know many, many others who supported Brown 4 years ago, who are voting Bishop. The assumption in the Mayor's race should go out the window. I'm assuming we have NO idea how Dems vote until later tonight or tomorrow....
But, I am loving this thread and trying to keep up. The information you are posting is valuable and fun.
I posted the best model for brown in response to Glorias question. (which was why we only gave Brown a 1 in 8 chance of winning tonight)
And in the best model for Brown he gets 42% of the total vote, coming from democrats who are presently casting 45% of the total vote.
This sounds right to me as well.
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 04:16:44 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:07:24 PM
Have a stupid question here. Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large? I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?
Good question. The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville. The same holds true for Baldwin. :)
Thanks! Cool so they get to blame 2 mayors for screwing them around. Good deal.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:07:24 PM
Have a stupid question here. Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large? I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?
Jacksonville Mayor Delaney actually lived in Neptune Beach.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:19:35 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 04:16:44 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:07:24 PM
Have a stupid question here. Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large? I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?
Good question. The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville. The same holds true for Baldwin. :)
Thanks! Cool so they get to blame 2 mayors for screwing them around. Good deal.
Beaches residents pay 8.152 mils to Duval County, while JB gets 3.99 from its residents, NB gets 3.36, and AB gets 3.32. So technically they have more skin in the game for Duval County elections than the Beaches elections.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 03:54:57 PM
So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:
Dems: 28.8%
Reps: 31.4%
Oth: 13.4%
As of 4:30.
D. 30.4
R. 33.3
O. 14.3
Why are your numbers and Stephens different by party turnout?
For a reference point and to Kay's question, there are as of 02/23/15 a total of active voting members of 549,171
Democrats:227,765
Republicans:201,171
Others:120,133
So any percentages of voters that would matter should come from the active voters list in order to be more accurate. :) That can be figured for this moment from the numbers in Stephen's post just above this one. Of course those numbers will be in flux until after 7:00 when the last voters in line at that time cast their votes.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 04:38:51 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:37:24 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 03:54:57 PM
So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:
Dems: 28.8%
Reps: 31.4%
Oth: 13.4%
As of 4:30.
D. 30.4
R. 33.3
O. 14.3
Edjax. What are these percentages of? 28% of the registered dems?
My numbers are the percent of each party turnout, not the percent of votes cast by party. So yes, as of 4:30, 30.4% of registered Dems had voted, etc.
So Ed is your turn out based upon all those who are registered to each party as opposed those who are registered and active voters?
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 05:07:10 PM
So Ed is your turn out based upon all those who are registered to each party as opposed those who are registered and active voters?
Based upon your numbers above. (Active)
Cool beans. Thanks Ed.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 03:12:22 PM
Brown needs 50% + 1
Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.
And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%
And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote
That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%
Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %
Okay, Stephen I understand what you were saying now, but I do not know who Gloria is and because your post didn't include a "quote" in your statement, or imply you were only answering a question...... I assume it was a stand alone comment. My bad....
Hi All! I'm Meredith O'Malley Johnson, founder of the Jax Young Voters Coalition and veteran of 13 political campaigns. I'm happy to join in the discussion tonight on this historic City Election! I'll be going by both Jim Love for District 14's party tonight as well as Bill Bishop for Mayor's party.
Great Meredith. Look forward to hearing your comments. Did you guys have sign waivers out today for various candidates?
Keep in mind that 45.3% of all the votes in this election cycle will be made today. Anything can happen. :)
I also think Jim Love will have an easy race because he's been a responsive and competent City Councilman. I personally (not speaking for the Coalition here) think Bill Bishop is the most qualified and best candidate in the race. I think it might be a close one between Curry and Bishop.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 04:37:24 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 03:54:57 PM
So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:
Dems: 28.8%
Reps: 31.4%
Oth: 13.4%
As of 4:30.
D. 30.4
R. 33.3
O. 14.3
As of 5:40.
D. 33.2
R. 36.4
O. 15.7
All. 30.51
Turnout all over town is really surprising me. Lisa King's District 2 has precincts turning out at 47%, average of about 37%. There is evidence here of an effective turnout effort.
The Coalition threw everything we had at the wall - $5,000 in social media ads/promotions, $3,500 in online targeted ads, 2 Ballots & Brews events, outreach to over 50 organizations, and the word-of-mouth, peer-pressure driven campaign.
We'll see what stuck! And modify our campaign for the next cycle.
This election cycle feels very different to me from 2011. Voters seem much more engaged. There's the Jax Young Voters Coalition, the LGBT Leadership PAC, 904ward PAC - all working to drive turnout and advocate for certain candidates. And that's on top of what the candidates' campaigns are doing. We'll see if all this grassroots organizing pays off tonight. We'll see a big influx in voting between 5-7pm as voters get off work and go to the polls. We're already beating 2011's first unitary turnout by a bit.
In fact, I will say that Democratic turnout margins will hold throughout the night. Dems have never ended early voting with margins like in this election. We don't really know where the 12% of NPA votes will go, but the Dems did their job in this election.
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 05:55:58 PM
This election cycle feels very different to me from 2011. Voters seem much more engaged. There's the Jax Young Voters Coalition, the LGBT Leadership PAC, 904ward PAC - all working to drive turnout and advocate for certain candidates. And that's on top of what the candidates' campaigns are doing. We'll see if all this grassroots organizing pays off tonight. We'll see a big influx in voting between 5-7pm as voters get off work and go to the polls. We're already beating 2011's first unitary turnout by a bit.
It is very different Meredith and I think we are seeing the beginnings of positive change. Officially the turnout numbers are up from 2011 so that is a positive. :)
Okay people, down to the last hour. Get out and vote.
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 05:55:58 PM
This election cycle feels very different to me from 2011. ...There's the... ...904ward PAC
Who is this 904Ward of whom you speak? Sounds like a friendly group.
Definitely a friendly group, with great people doing great things! I think we're seeing a groundswell of, "We want Jacksonville to be better!" For so long, maintaining the status quo, and thus mediocrity, has damaged our city. I think there's enough of us that are ready to PUSH HARD to make shit happen finally!
I'll be at Jim Love's party and reporting in shortly!
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 06:36:14 PM
Just ran into Neil Henrichsen, the chairman of the Duval Democratic party, and also the chairman of the Regional Transportation Commission with Ennis. We talked briefly about the surprise endorsement yesterday and he admitted to being a fan of the site.
Im at a long table set aside for journalists, covered in black cloths, set up with electricity and all the amenities a lowly journalist could ever hope for.
We are listening to gospel music while we wait for the crowds to show up.
I thought Ennis said the site was not making an endorsement. That was your personal endorsement according to him. Did I miss something. ;) No doubt the Brown crowd will have a good night.
7:00PM and the polls are closed. Anyone in line at 7:00 will still get to cast a vote. Stand by, we should start to see some voting numbers come in.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5hNTEWsAAJpb_.png:large)
With precincts 39/199 Mayors race
Omega Allen 2.1%
Bishop 17.11%
Brown 43.11%
Curry 37.78%
Any idea which precincts these numbers are coming in from? Thanks for all the coverage today.
Precincts 39/199 Reporting Sheriffs Race
Cummings 6.04%
Farhat 8.35%
Holderfield 19.88%
Jefferson 36.96%
McDonald 1.97%
Schoonover 5.53%
Williams 21.27%
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5jT9EWEAA67wz.png:large)
Guys, I am posting directly from the SOE site above so far are numbers for the mayor and sheriff races.
Brown 43.11%
Curry 37.78%
Bisho[ 17.11% SOE numbers for Mayors race
I've arrived at the Bill Bishop for Mayor party. Everyone still in good spirits here and hoping for the best!
Just now Mayors Race Brown 43.31 %
Bishop 16.55%
Curry 37.95%
One of the outputs that will be seen in tonight's results is the advantage large ad buys in traditional ad mediums still have. Bishop never had a chance. Curry could not have been a worse candidate but the Rick Scott model of buying out the airways has worked and continues to work for GOP candidates.
Sheriffs race just now
Jefferson 37.16%
Holderfield 20.27%
Williams 21.63 % Tight between Holderfield and Williams
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5kkBsWsAAOxle.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5lDqZXEAAdLsc.png)
SOE Race
Davis 45.99%
Hogan 54.01%
At Large District 1
Brosche 29.27%
Daniels 35.88%
Reed 10.31%
Taylor 24.55%
71% Reporting Mayors Race
Brown 43%
Curry 38%
Bishop 17%
With 71% Reporting on Sheriffs race
Jefferson 37%
Williams 22%
Holder 20%
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 07:50:47 PM
Looks like we overestimated the break to Bishop in the Republican column. Curry is taking 70% of that category.
Looks that way. Now to see what Bishop does. That will make or break Alvin Brown or Curry
At Large District 2 141/199
Crescimbeni 53.5%
Barron 29.21%
Graham 17.29%
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 07:58:12 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 07:54:52 PM
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 07:50:47 PM
Looks like we overestimated the break to Bishop in the Republican column. Curry is taking 70% of that category.
Looks that way. Now to see what Bishop does. That will make or break Alvin Brown or Curry
and we are at 90% of the vote, Alvin holds up with 43% of the vote.
We are at 71% in the Mayors race
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
Looking at Crescimbeni will have this with no run off.
Looks like Hogan has the SOE
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 07:38:41 PM
At Large District 1
Brosche 29.27%
Daniels 35.88%
Reed 10.31%
Taylor 24.55%
WHY? This is the classic example of Jacksonville, FL NOT moving very fast going forward. The city is lower than a snail pace if she wins an At large Council seat.
Run off Daniels and Brosche
Hazouri and Youngblood run off
Looks like Anderson has his districe
Anania and Morgan run off
Bishop supporters are chanting his name and still in good spirits. Tonight's not going to be his night obviously, and I don't think he has a reason to endorse either of his opponents. Lots of talk of Bishop in 2019. Of that's an open seat then, Bill might make it happen then.
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 08:08:20 PM
Bishop supporters are chanting his name and still in good spirits. Tonight's not going to be his night obviously, and I don't think he has a reason to endorse either of his opponents. Lots of talk of Bishop in 2019. Of that's an open seat then, Bill might make it happen then.
I like it and my spirits are still good as well. I am looking forward for Bill Bishop :)
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:09:10 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 08:06:26 PM
Hazouri and Youngblood run off
What are the numbers, Diane?
I will get those up Stephen right now with the percentages reporting in spite of individual numbers the above races as taken or run off should hold. Stand by
King and Ferro run off but Daniels had a number of serious votes as well. If his folks turn out for Ferro Lisa King is in trouble.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:11:27 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 08:10:20 PM
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:09:10 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 08:06:26 PM
Hazouri and Youngblood run off
Thanks Stephen
What are the numbers, Diane?
I will get those up Stephen right now with the percentages reporting in spite of individual numbers the above races as taken or run off should hold. Stand by
You rock, Diane!
And btw, its been a pleasure doing it with you this election. You helped us rock out the coverage. Without you the job wouldn't have been nearly as well done!
Thank you sir.
Run off between Day and Wilson however in a one on one match up the republicans look to carry Wilson
Anyone have numbers from the 2011 election? Was there a run-off? If so where did Brown stand?
Bowman has this no run off
Schellenberg has this, no run off
Ugh, Dist 7 looks to be a run off between Gaffney and Spencer
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:09:57 PM
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 08:08:20 PM
Bishop supporters are chanting his name and still in good spirits. Tonight's not going to be his night obviously, and I don't think he has a reason to endorse either of his opponents. Lots of talk of Bishop in 2019. Of that's an open seat then, Bill might make it happen then.
Bishop 2019! Its in the cards, I think. Thats why there was such enthusiastic support from the moderates.
No, no. Boyer 2019. She just has to be talked into running.
Looks like Tappouni might not even make the run off? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Jacksonville
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:04:04 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
Curry vs Brown is going to be somewhat close, I suspect, but the Mayor will win that round with a pretty convincing lead.
Nat Glover / John Peyton Part Deuce, is my fear.
Looks tight in district 8 Potential run off between Brown and Lockett/Felder or Brown and Fields
Dist 9 looks like my dear friend Glorious Johnson has lost to Garrett Dennis.
Which Alvin Brown would 2015 Curry have a better chance against? 2011 or 2015?
Reggie Brown takes his district no run off
Lori Boyer would be formidable
Finally Carter takes his district no run off and Love takes his district no run off
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5xx8JWsAABURT.png:large)
Quote from: CityLife on March 24, 2015, 08:21:45 PM
Looks like Tappouni might not even make the run off? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Jacksonville
The local Republican Party prioritizes social conservatism over competency, unfortunately.
Simple as that.
Whew. I will make a post with numbers for where these races stand at 8:30 With a couple of possible exceptions, the races should be as called in previous posts above.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5yYFDWQAEyfks.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5yo8VWoAEMQ8V.png:large)
Quote from: vicupstate on March 24, 2015, 08:23:05 PM
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:04:04 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
Curry vs Brown is going to be somewhat close, I suspect, but the Mayor will win that round with a pretty convincing lead.
Nat Glover / John Peyton Part Deuce, is my fear.
We should be so lucky to have either of them over anyone on this ballot.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:26:18 PM
Quote from: CityLife on March 24, 2015, 08:25:51 PM
Which Alvin Brown would 2015 Curry have a better chance against? 2011 or 2015?
2011, obviously
I don't know that its that obvious. I'm not sure Brown will get the same moderate Republican support he got in 2011. We'll just have to wait and see.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5y7r6WEAET2SR.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5zIhvWgAArzds.png:large)
Bill Bishop just gave his concession speech and did not endorse either of the other candidates. Heading to Councilman Jim Love's home to congratulate him on his victory.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5zhhYW8AIdJ2d.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5z05ZWcAAt6vm.png:large)
Curry aT 38% is a surprise right?
Re-elected Councilman Jim Love is in great spirits but still humble about his win tonight. He has really grown as a city Councilman over the last 4 years.(//)
The following are the percentages as of 8:30 3/24
Mayor's Race
Brown 43.01 %
Curry 38.34 %
Bishop 16.45 %
Sheriff
Jefferson 36.79%
Williams 22.09%
Holderfield 20.41%
Supervisor of Elections
Hogan 54.51%
Davis 45.49%
At Lrg Grp 1
Daniels 35.67%
Broshe 29.22%
Taylor 24.90% This was the race that had me worried between Taylor and Brosche. In a run off between Daniels and Brosche, Brosche should take this at large seat
At Lrg Grp 2
Barron 29.64%
Crescimbeni 52.8%
Graham 17.54%
At Lg Grp 3
Hazouri 44.74%
Pollock 13.09%
Youngblood 42.18% In a run off Pollocks votes to Hazouri and Hazouri wins
At Lg Grp 4
Anderson 57.06%
Williams 42.94%
At Lg Grp 5
Newby 27.97%
Pittman 46.17%
Tappouni 25.86% This race will be a run off between Newby and Pittman. This is a hard one to call depending on where Tappouni's votes go. If the majority go to Newby he will edge out Pittman
Ben how about you use you copying skills and list the district races for everyone. :)
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 08:35:48 PM
Bill Bishop just gave his concession speech and did not endorse either of the other candidates. Heading to Councilman Jim Love's home to congratulate him on his victory.
He fought a great fight. Do you think Bill Bishop needs to endorse Brown or Curry? What would be his benefit? I'm good with him not endorsing anyone in Mayor race.
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
I'm not sure he needs to endorse anyone, but I disagree with his "disenchanted partisans go home". I think a large percentage of Bill Bishops vote were conscience voters, interested in local politics. I feel many will go to one side in voting, not staying home.
Curry did better than anticipated and it's kind of scary considering the campaign he ran and his lack of platform or understanding. To me this is an indicator the the GOP tactics of money and fear still hit their mark in Jacksonville. Some you you would never expect what I am about to say but in a race between Brown and Curry, I hope Brown wins. We can't afford 8 years of Curry. I am also very proud of Bill Bishop and the race he ran. He was working with about 80,000 or so and Brown and Curry both topped 2.1 million. Considering that extraordinary gap of funding he did himself and his followers proud with 28,829 people who believed in him. He remains the most qualified candidate to my view who ran the cleanest campaign.
The take away in this race is also the fact that there remains an inherent power in the position of incumbent, even with weak leadership.
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 08:56:51 PM
Quote from: MeredithOJohnson on March 24, 2015, 08:35:48 PM
Bill Bishop just gave his concession speech and did not endorse either of the other candidates. Heading to Councilman Jim Love's home to congratulate him on his victory.
He fought a great fight. Do you think Bill Bishop needs to endorse Brown or Curry? What would be his benefit? I'm good with him not endorsing anyone in Mayor race.
The GOP hierarchy will put the vise on him to endorse Curry. If he truly wants to run in 2019, he may give in to the pressure to do so, whether he truly wants to or not.
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 09:02:27 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
I'm not sure he needs to endorse anyone, but I disagree with his "disenchanted partisans go home". I think a large percentage of Bill Bishops vote were conscience voters, interested in local politics. I feel many will go to one side in voting, not staying home.
His voters were conscious voters and to my eye it looks like 16% of the active voters in Jacksonville are looking at all aspects of a candidate outside of party and funding. That is a good thing. :)
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 09:02:27 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
I'm not sure he needs to endorse anyone, but I disagree with his "disenchanted partisans go home". I think a large percentage of Bill Bishops vote were conscience voters, interested in local politics. I feel many will go to one side in voting, not staying home.
I interpreted that comment to mean that disenchanted partisans will 'come home' to their respective party, not 'stay home' and not vote. Only Husky can say for such though.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 09:03:44 PM
Suddenly the room has gone silent as Curry is speaking at his campaign. Its weird, he's clearly the opponent for everyone in the room and everyone took him very seriously until he said that his wife was his 'lover'. You could kind of see the cringe running through the entire room.
Hes wanting to cut a deal with Bishop (except that he claimed that he'd been working as a council person from the past four years (its been eight)
Oh my Gawd. Hahaha
Quote from: vicupstate on March 24, 2015, 09:06:32 PM
Quote from: Jax native on March 24, 2015, 09:02:27 PM
Quote from: DuvalHusky on March 24, 2015, 08:00:25 PM
I'm not sure anything Bill says or does in terms of endorsements will matter. Disenchanted partisans tend to go home after a loss.
I'm not sure he needs to endorse anyone, but I disagree with his "disenchanted partisans go home". I think a large percentage of Bill Bishops vote were conscience voters, interested in local politics. I feel many will go to one side in voting, not staying home.
I interpreted that comment to mean that disenchanted partisans will 'come home' to their respective party, not 'stay home' and not vote. Only Husky can say for such though.
They might depending upon how disenchanted they are. My guess is that Bill pulled lot's of moderates and some Dems as well. The Dems will go back to Alvin in most cases but the disenfranchised Republicans? Not sure they will flock back. This city cannot afford 8 years of a tight fisted right wing GOP power group . I do think that shadow pull of war between Clinton folk and Bush folk showed itself in todays vote and in the major campaign funds collected.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 08:55:46 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 08:54:37 PM
Ben how about you use you copying skills and list the district races for everyone. :)
look up! He already did!
I see the At Large races he posted but not the individual district races, perhaps the district races are much further back. Will check.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 09:09:57 PM
Have to say that the new partnership with Ben America, Jim Minion and the young politicos over at the Riverside house has been flipping amazing. Very awesome reporting all day, thanks to the hard work and graphical skills of Jeff, Ben and company.
Ben, you guys rock!
I think its safe to say that we probably did the most informed, accurate coverage of the election all day.
Again, Diane, thanks for your dogged posting and fact accumulation!
Also Devlin Mann, thanks for getting the photos of the Number Cruncher location earlier!
Thanks again Stephen.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA57x6fWkAAHjue.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA58fJnWoAAnGl6.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA584wzXEAE-SN9.png:large)
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA59W58W8AA6BkQ.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA59nvQWcAADV9m.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA599yIW4AAuglb.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5-LlmWAAEHopI.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5-ZdnWcAIrPb4.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5-2uHXIAEaiYo.png:large)
Thanks Ben. These charted figures are much easier to read. :)
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Tell you what the next two month's dealing with the Curry camp will not be a picnic. I think all the candidates are drained and need a rest but for a few the race starts all over again tomorrow. Rest well Stephen and over and out for me as well. :)
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
A Kennedy School of Government professor could probably write the world's most eloquent in depth analysis of the upcoming runoff, but I can summarize it with a simple question. Is Curry a scarier boogeyman to moderates than Hogan was? If not, we might have an interesting race on our hands.
Quote from: stephendare on March 24, 2015, 09:09:57 PM
Have to say that the new partnership with Ben America, Jim Minion and the young politicos over at the Riverside house has been flipping amazing. Very awesome reporting all day, thanks to the hard work and graphical skills of Jeff, Ben and company.
Ben, you guys rock!
I think its safe to say that we probably did the most informed, accurate coverage of the election all day.
Again, Diane, thanks for your dogged posting and fact accumulation!
Also Devlin Mann, thanks for getting the photos of the Number Cruncher location earlier!
Glad you are getting some rest, Stephen. Sucking knee caps isn't the best look on you. Take care.
Quote from: CityLife on March 24, 2015, 09:50:05 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
A Kennedy School of Government professor could probably write the world's most eloquent in depth analysis of the upcoming runoff, but I can summarize it with a simple question. Is Curry a scarier boogeyman to moderates than Hogan was? If not, we might have an interesting race on our hands.
Good point, and no, not a chance. On top of that, Brown's in a much worse position now compared to 2011, now that we've had four years of seeing him "govern."
Voter turnout:
(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA6Ksb2WUAEF11M.png:large)
Results by Precinct:
(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA6LzsQWAAAfKv4.png:large)
Wow, Bishop won 4 precincts? granted he won mine in District 14, but still, whatever he was selling, whatever message he had for voters, it was obvious that the citizens of Jacksonville......were not buying it. He was just 8 years of the past and his ghost has been exercised. He is the candidate of choice in 2019? Eh-Ghad!
Brown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it. Well, he didn't, and apparently he is not as popular in some districts as others thought, apparently he has not done a "great" job the last 4 years. So at least the "I'm with Alvin" crowd has some really soul searching to do over the next 8 weeks to figure out, how a guy with no local political experience could get into a race with the guy who was able to win an election in 2011, just by being someone different, someone for change. As he has been painted since day 1, Brown is the Willy Lomax of Mayors, not hot, not cold, just lukewarm. Sorry Mayor Brown, you will have to win this election on your own and you will not be able to blame City Council for your errors, or maybe you can with Bishop, blame him, as its his fault you could not clear 50%.
No matter, see its a conspiracy and the name is Toney Sleiman. 4 years ago Sleiman backed the loser to Brown and this year he is going to back the loser again, only this time it will be Brown. Sleiman is issue. Keep him in the camp, keep him close, he is an anchor around Brown's feet.
I would guess most people didn't hear what he was selling as opposed to not buying it. I have probably been the most consistent voice saying Brown is a foregone conclusion (which he is) but in politics today there is not very much running away with it. Second place is a good first election for Curry and should set him up well for the next job he runs for.
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
Don't discount the possibility of a repeat of 2003, Glover vs. Peyton. Glover, the Democrat lead in the first race only to lose in the runoff, and it was not that close either. This is a Republican city and Curry doesn't have a record to defend. He can be all things to all people. He can promise not to raise taxes. He can tie the very unpopular (to the right) President to Brown. Jeb wants to be sure he can carry FL in two years. If his handlers can keep him on cue cards, Curry can absolutely win the runoff.
QuoteBrown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it.
No. Not even close to being true.
Quote from: vicupstate on March 25, 2015, 08:49:01 AM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
Don't discount the possibility of a repeat of 2003, Glover vs. Peyton. Glover, the Democrat lead in the first race only to lose in the runoff, and it was not that close either. This is a Republican city and Curry doesn't have a record to defend. He can be all things to all people. He can promise not to raise taxes. He can tie the very unpopular (to the right) President to Brown. Jeb wants to be sure he can carry FL in two years. If his handlers can keep him on cue cards, Curry can absolutely win the runoff.
Here's hoping.
Quote from: vicupstate on March 25, 2015, 08:54:51 AM
QuoteBrown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it.
No. Not even close to being true.
Come on. Alvin's people thought they were going to get out of this without a runoff, and they didn't even come close. They more or less admitted it last night, and those folks seem to be hired for their ability never to say anything.
Quote from: Tacachale on March 25, 2015, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: vicupstate on March 25, 2015, 08:49:01 AM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: Cheshire Cat on March 24, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
Quote from: edjax on March 24, 2015, 09:18:54 PM
One Dem and one Rep in my HH. Both votes went to Bishop. In the runoff most likely both will now go to Brown.
Ed, I hope it does. Someone pinch me....did I just say that? lol I absolutely did. I think Curry and his brand of politics is pure poison.
Yea. To me now pretty much like 2011. Scary Hogan then and now Scary Curry. Brown wins.
Don't discount the possibility of a repeat of 2003, Glover vs. Peyton. Glover, the Democrat lead in the first race only to lose in the runoff, and it was not that close either. This is a Republican city and Curry doesn't have a record to defend. He can be all things to all people. He can promise not to raise taxes. He can tie the very unpopular (to the right) President to Brown. Jeb wants to be sure he can carry FL in two years. If his handlers can keep him on cue cards, Curry can absolutely win the runoff.
Here's hoping.
Quote from: vicupstate on March 25, 2015, 08:54:51 AM
QuoteBrown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it.
No. Not even close to being true.
Come on. Alvin's people thought they were going to get out of this without a runoff, and they didn't even come close. They more or less admitted it last night, and those folks seem to be hired for their ability never to say anything.
People inside the campaign have blinders on. There hopes blind them to the real picture. People outside of the campaign were not saying that. The UNF poll certainly didn't support that notion. An incumbent below 50% is in trouble and one at 37% is definitely in trouble.
Quote from: Tacachale on March 25, 2015, 09:58:43 AM
Come on. Alvin's people thought they were going to get out of this without a runoff, and they didn't even come close. They more or less admitted it last night, and those folks seem to be hired for their ability never to say anything.
I think that might have been the viewpoint at this time last year or even last fall....but nobody of importance (inside or outside the campaign) recently thought he would get to 50% +1 last night.
This will be a tough race, but with good turnout I see Alvin pulling in about 53% of the vote in May.
Quote from: mtraininjax on March 24, 2015, 11:23:29 PM
Wow, Bishop won 4 precincts? granted he won mine in District 14, but still, whatever he was selling, whatever message he had for voters, it was obvious that the citizens of Jacksonville......were not buying it. He was just 8 years of the past and his ghost has been exercised. He is the candidate of choice in 2019? Eh-Ghad!
Brown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it. Well, he didn't, and apparently he is not as popular in some districts as others thought, apparently he has not done a "great" job the last 4 years. So at least the "I'm with Alvin" crowd has some really soul searching to do over the next 8 weeks to figure out, how a guy with no local political experience could get into a race with the guy who was able to win an election in 2011, just by being someone different, someone for change. As he has been painted since day 1, Brown is the Willy Lomax of Mayors, not hot, not cold, just lukewarm. Sorry Mayor Brown, you will have to win this election on your own and you will not be able to blame City Council for your errors, or maybe you can with Bishop, blame him, as its his fault you could not clear 50%.
No matter, see its a conspiracy and the name is Toney Sleiman. 4 years ago Sleiman backed the loser to Brown and this year he is going to back the loser again, only this time it will be Brown. Sleiman is issue. Keep him in the camp, keep him close, he is an anchor around Brown's feet.
mtrain. Looking at that map tells me something else entirely. Remember that Brown and Curry had over 2 million each to campaign with. Bill went out there with less than 100k. At the start of this race neither he nor Curry had much name recognition outside of Curry with state GOP and those who knew Bill as a member of council. This map shows that where Bill Bishop actually had time to physically campaign and share his ideas and knowledge, the people overwhelmingly supported him. The districts he took are also telling in that it is clear he appealed to voters looking for substance as opposed to party or glitz. Had Bishop had the money of Brown or Curry he would have been able to saturate the media like they did with his message, a positive one and expertise. Had he been on equal ground with funding, he would be in this run off race for sure. As it is there is no need to dismiss or underplay the positive roll he played in this election nor ignore the fact that in spite of what you might think, Bishop would make and informed, engaged and exceptional mayor. I hope to see him well funded and back in 2019. For many people including me his time and experience in office made him a strong candidate not a person to be discarded now or in the future. :)
Quote from: mtraininjax on March 24, 2015, 11:23:29 PM
Wow, Bishop won 4 precincts? granted he won mine in District 14, but still, whatever he was selling, whatever message he had for voters, it was obvious that the citizens of Jacksonville......were not buying it. He was just 8 years of the past and his ghost has been exercised. He is the candidate of choice in 2019? Eh-Ghad!
Brown - Wow, everyone thought he was going to run away with it. Well, he didn't, and apparently he is not as popular in some districts as others thought, apparently he has not done a "great" job the last 4 years. So at least the "I'm with Alvin" crowd has some really soul searching to do over the next 8 weeks to figure out, how a guy with no local political experience could get into a race with the guy who was able to win an election in 2011, just by being someone different, someone for change. As he has been painted since day 1, Brown is the Willy Lomax of Mayors, not hot, not cold, just lukewarm. Sorry Mayor Brown, you will have to win this election on your own and you will not be able to blame City Council for your errors, or maybe you can with Bishop, blame him, as its his fault you could not clear 50%.
No matter, see its a conspiracy and the name is Toney Sleiman. 4 years ago Sleiman backed the loser to Brown and this year he is going to back the loser again, only this time it will be Brown. Sleiman is issue. Keep him in the camp, keep him close, he is an anchor around Brown's feet.
I sincerely wish it would be more enjoyable to read your thoughts saying the exact thongs, even using exact verbage on every single political thread. We read it the 1st, 2nd, 28th time. People didn't buy what Bishop sold. Broen in bad and all Democrats lie.
We got it. I feel it would be much more engaging if you would present different thoughts, reasons, or reactions than the exact same one every day on every thread. When I see your posts, I just go to the next....I've heard the same thing...Mtrain...we hear the same thing. If I post this on every single thread saying the same thing....it makes no difference because I am saying it now. I wish you nothing less than being happy, but you would be more interesting with a different thought or post.