Metro Jacksonville

By ANTHONY McCARTNEY, Associated Press Writer 28 minutes ago

TAMPA, Fla. - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season could be slightly busier than average, with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming, federal forecasters said Thursday in a new way of making predictions.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes could form.

They said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come true, the first time officials gave a probability. They took that step following years of criticism of their long range forecasts, which have usually been fairly accurate but in some cases have been way off.

For example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but there turned out to be 28, the busiest season on record.

Forecasters stress that residents should always be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts say, because even a slow season can be disastrous. The government's seasonal forecasts don't predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.

Gerry Bell, the agency's lead forecaster for Atlantic hurricanes, said probabilities were included because people had come to rely too much on the forecasts. "Basically it was interpreted as a 100 percent chance," he said.

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes of which two reach major status with winds of more than 110 mph. This year should be about average or slightly more active, forecasters said.

Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.

"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now â€" before a storm threatens," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery."

Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major this year.

Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

Gray was further off the mark. Before the start of the season, he forecast 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.

The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

 By Luis Diaz

LEON, Nicaragua, May 29 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Alma, the first cyclone of the Americas hurricane season, slammed into Nicaragua's Pacific coast on Thursday, its winds toppling trees and ripping roofs off flimsy homes.

Torrential rain fell in this colonial western city as Alma whipped up sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph) and even higher gusts.

Power poles were flattened and the former capital of Nicaragua -- home to around 150,000 people -- was without electricity and telephone services, witnesses said.

Troops in military vehicles dashed out to coastal fishing villages and evacuated some people in danger. But other residents, many of them survivors of previous storms, were reluctant to leave their homes.

"Shelters are ready but some people are waiting a bit to evacuate," Lt. Col. Noel Narvaez told Reuters.

Wow.  It's not even hurrican seasaon and we're being slammed already.  Oh no.  I don't like where this is going. 

lets hope they're as wrong as they have been the past two years  :o

I overheard some of the old folks talking about the up and coming season.  They said, since Texas had such a mild winter that the hurricane season was going to be active.  Yup, the season starts today.  Are ya'll prepared?  did you buy enough batteries?  You got drinking water?  Have you reviewed your plans. Do you care?

Wow. Tropical Depression ARTHUR has formd.  And so early in the season;  Ya'll better be prepared.

QuoteAn ill wind for gas prices
Traders say that even though you're already paying for the hurricane season, the price could spike to $6 a gallon if catastrophe strikes.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 1, 2008: 10:09 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Batten down the hatches: hurricane season starts on June 1. It's expected to be a rough one, threatening to upend refineries and disrupt pipelines in the southern United States.

And that could send gas prices, already nearly 20% above what they were last year, soaring even higher.

That's what happened three years ago when the Gulf Coast was battered by two hurricanes - Katrina and Rita - in the span of a few weeks.

"With the market the way it is now, a move in crude because of a hurricane could really be exacerbated," said MF Global energy analyst Don Luke.

Peter Beutel, oil analyst at Cameron Hanover Beutel, said if a Katrina-like hurricane were to hit in July, gas prices could go as high as $5 or even $6.

"The last thing this market needs at this time is a hurricane, because we can't afford to lose any of our refining capacity at this point," said Beutel. "If anything bullish happens with the market in this state, it would make it go absolutely crazy."

Like any disruption to supply, when a hurricane takes out drilling platforms and refineries, supply and demand principles lead to a jump in crude oil gasoline prices.

But even before the start to hurricane season, speculative traders have started to send oil and gas prices higher in anticipation of a hit to supplies.

"We're already seeing a hurricane premium on gas of about five to 10 cents per gallon," said Alaron Trading energy analyst Phil Flynn. "Especially since Katrina, we've seen traders build that into prices."

The last huge gas spike caused by a hurricane happened in the late summer of 2005, when Katrina and Rita brought many Americans their first glimpse at $3 a gallon for regular gas. The destruction from Hurricane Katrina alone led gasoline prices to jump 46 cents, or 17%, in just one week to a national average of $3.11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Though we may never again see two Category 5 hurricanes enter the Gulf of Mexico in the span of only a few weeks, it may not take a similar occurrence to see a similar boost in gas prices again. Oil prices have soared through the roof on seemingly any kind of bad news recently, so analysts admit that this hurricane season's effect on gas prices is difficult to predict.

On the other hand, if no hurricane hits this season, Beutel said gas prices may fall off a bit. But with hurricane season ending Nov. 30, we'll have to wait until December to find out.

"That would have some downward pressure on prices, but who knows where we'll be at that point - we could be a dollar higher or lower than where we are now," he said.
The perfect storm

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its tropical storm forecast Thursday morning, saying there is a 65% chance of a stronger-than-average hurricane season and only a 10% chance that it will be weaker than normal. The outlook indicates a 60% to 70% chance of 12 to 16 named storms, with six to nine becoming hurricanes and two to five turning into major hurricanes.

But it doesn't take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling and gasoline production in the Gulf.

"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a category five to do a lot of damage."

Andy Radford, policy adviser for oil industry trade group American Petroleum Institute (API), said the average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage and restart production.

"When the offshore oil pumps get shut down, it takes a lot to get them back on," said Radford.

He said those big storms in 2004 and 2005 did considerable damage to oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, severely cutting into supply to gasoline refineries on the shore.

Though slow-moving, weak tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico can halt oil drilling, powerful hurricanes that hit land can knock out refineries. That's because about 40% of U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast, namely in oft-hit states like Texas and Louisiana. After Katrina and Rita, 30% of Gulf Coast refineries were shut down or operating with reductions.

"Because refining of crude oil into gasoline and other oil products is critical to meeting our nation's daily energy needs, disruptions in these operations can have an immediate impact on the nation's gasoline supply and petrochemicals," said Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) spokeswoman Robin Lebovitz.

And even though NOAA predicted a high number of strong, named storms for the 2008 season, no one can tell whether or not they will make landfall.

"You can have a very active season but none will make landfall, or a very inactive season but they all hit land," said NOAA spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "There's no way to predict if they will hit yet, because that science just doesn't exist."

It's rare for a refinery to be totally knocked out by a hurricane, but many are susceptible to wind and water damage that can limit supply to and from the facilities. Similar to offshore drilling platforms, refineries are sometimes shut down for more than a week before they can return to full operability, according to API Refining Issues Manager Cindy Schild.

Part of the reason Katrina and Rita led to such a spike in gas prices was that there weren't enough functional facilities to make up for the lost output. Although capacity at many U.S. oil refineries has been expanded, there hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in three decades.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/22/news/economy/hurricane_season/index.htm?postversion=2008060110

On July 2, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. The wave is south of Cape Verde.  It has very strong winds and could strengthen into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic. These systems never occur this time of year.  That it just isn't Cape Verde season yet.  However, when these Cape Verde-types form this early in the season they are usualy forerunners of the much more destructive hurricanes.

Wow.  Burtha forms an eye and becomes a hurricane our first in the 2008 season. 

Bertha. Looks like the Cape Verde season is off to an early start. Let's see if the forecasts are better this year than last. The overactive hurricane season didn't occur last year, after all those dire forecasts.

Forecasting seasonal weather patterns is like guessing the year you'll die.  There are just too many factors and unknowns.  You might as well give a quarter to a mechanical fortune teller and ask them how many hurricanes we'll have.

If everyone treated the yearly hurricane season as if it would be the worst on record and be prepared, there wouldn't be as much damage and chaos. 

I dont know. We have two rare events so far.  Arthur see above and now Burtha? I wonder if a revision to the forcast is coming? Was'nt there already an update back in Nov?

Bertha is now forecast to veer northward and miss the US according to radio reports I heard earlier.

global warming.

If you remember last year, we had 2 category 5s that exploded suddenly and hit C. America.

I'm a meteorologist at NS Mayport and this stuff never ceases to amaze me. Everyone wants to say GW, umm, it's a cycle and much more complicated than that. Claiming GW shows you lack of knowledge, or event he slightest understanding of how the atmosphere works.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH. I don't really care if it's GW or not, that's one strong storm. 

This is shaping up to be one pretty nasty storm.  I'm praying it stays out in Atlantic.

From the NOAA website, as of the 11:00 EST update.  I took the liberty of removing the km and km/h unit conversions:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/081441.shtml

Quote
...BERTHA WEAKENS BUT STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
975 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Breathe easy, kids.  This is Florida.  Hurricanes are par for the course.  Get ready ahead of time as best you can, and don't get all breathless when something happens out in the ocean.  Either it hits and we deal with it, or it doesn't and we keep our eye out for the next one anyway.  New year, same story!

Well, that doesn't sell commercial air time.   ;)

Anywho, Burtha is slowing down and winds decreasing but because of this she is going to track more to the west and closer to Bermuda and the water over there is warmer so she could increase in wind speeds. The good news here is Bermuda has really awesome building codes.

The disappointment of the local weather people was obvious... :D

They love storms.  If it bleeds, it leads.   :D

I, personally, dont trust anything that bleeds for 3-5 days and doesnt die.

Im just sayin.

Quote from: jacksonvilleconfidential on July 09, 2008, 01:39:59 PM
I, personally, dont trust anything that bleeds for 3-5 days and doesnt die.

Im just sayin.

Thanks Mr/Mrs. Garrison. ;D

Quote from: Eazy E on July 09, 2008, 02:24:07 PM

Quote from: jacksonvilleconfidential on July 09, 2008, 01:39:59 PM
I, personally, dont trust anything that bleeds for 3-5 days and doesnt die.

Im just sayin.

Thanks Mr/Mrs. Garrison. ;D

Ill say it again.. .I think i love you Easy E

Quote from: RiversideGator on July 09, 2008, 01:29:19 PM
They love storms.  If it bleeds, it leads.   :D

I guess the news media isn't to blame.  They only report what we want to hear.  I remember years ago, channel 12 kept saying, "Stay tuned..." and i just sat there all day watching them say "stay tuned" as they cut to commercial during one storm.  The storm was of course going to follow the typical storm that comes up the coast of florida which turns East or North East around West Palm.  The gulfstream just steers them away from jacksonville.  But the news was "Stay Turned..."

For those interested in continuing the banana thread, it has been split, and moved.
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,2709.0.html

Thank you.

Things are starting to heat up in the tropics now.  Looks like we could have 2 or 3 tropical storms within the week and Burtha has just lasted for forever.

What a bizzaro season.  Burtha is the longest lasting storm ever.  Now this:  MIAMI - A hurricane watch has been issued for parts of the Texas and Mexico coasts as Tropical Storm Dolly enters the Gulf of Mexico.

WTF? Gator, you can't be serious. You know we're in the middle of hurricane season, right?

Sensationalism, anyone?

Quote from: Charleston native on July 21, 2008, 02:55:16 PM
WTF? Gator, you can't be serious. You know we're in the middle of hurricane season, right?

Sensationalism, anyone?

Sensationalism?  If I wanted to be a Heny Penny the sky is falling, I would have mentioned the HUGE WAVE Moving off the Coast of Africa today.  Have you seen that thing???  OMFG!!!  RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Katrina was never That big! Lol.

Sorry. Bad day at work. I apologize.

But... so far this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all...

No worries.  Anywho, I live in Texas so this thing that's headed straight toward me has me worried.  You see, if the storm hits corpus christi or south of corpus christi the storm will spin tornados that would hit the Austin area. If hit his north of corpus christi then we are fine but then that would cause problems for Houston.  Either way, this is not good even it it's only a 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:15:04 PM
But... so far this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all...

Um, are you sure about that? Lol.  We've broken all kinds of records and it's only July 21.  Do me a favor, buy some beef jerky and some water because I don't want you knocking on my door if you fail to prepare.  ;)

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 03:16:56 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:15:04 PM
But... so far this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all...

Um, are you sure about that? Lol.  We've broken all kinds of records and it's only July 21.  Do me a favor, buy some beef jerky and some water because I don't want you knocking on my door if you fail to prepare.  ;)

I am well prepared... with far better than jerky and water!  Records??  What records have been broken?

Exactly, BridgeTroll.

Gator, I may have put my comments into a rude context, and I do apologize for that.

But I still think you're over-the-top with the hurricanes. It's completely normal to have a named storm around 'C' or 'D' this time of year, especially in the Gulf. Have you lived in the South long?

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:57:59 PM

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 03:16:56 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:15:04 PM
But... so far this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all...

Um, are you sure about that? Lol.  We've broken all kinds of records and it's only July 21.  Do me a favor, buy some beef jerky and some water because I don't want you knocking on my door if you fail to prepare.  ;)

I am well prepared... with far better than jerky and water!  Records??  What records have been broken?

Well there's the 1st record Burtha broke--WAIT....You mean you don't know anything Burtha yet you say "this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all."  How about this.  Remove foot from mouth my friend. Lol.

1) No hurricane on record has previously formed so far east in the Atlantic before August 1.
2) No other hurricane has ever lasted this long.
3 is questionalble so far)  I think it increased 20% faster then any storm on record..so 3?)

Whatever you feel is the norm, this year is one for the records.

As global warming occurs, it's quite possible that the tropical Atlantic will itself warm up enough to sustain hurricanes earlier in the year â€" and, at the same time, will stay warm enough to sustain them later in the year. This would suggest a gradual lengthening of the hurricane season on both ends, thanks to an expansion of what scientists call the Atlantic region's "warm pool."

Quote from: Charleston native on July 21, 2008, 04:01:42 PM
Exactly, BridgeTroll.

Gator, I may have put my comments into a rude context, and I do apologize for that.

But I still think you're over-the-top with the hurricanes. It's completely normal to have a named storm around 'C' or 'D' this time of year, especially in the Gulf. Have you lived in the South long?

It's all good Charleston.  This season is not normal and it's the earliest we've seen such an intense Atlantic hurricane since the year 2005, when hurricanes Dennis and Emily were Category 4 and 5 storms, respectively, in July. Dennis reached Category 4 strength on July 7 of that year ... the same day on which Bertha exploded three years later.

That's a particularly worrisome precedent because in 2005, the hurricane year only got worse after Dennis â€" featuring Category 5s Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

I am an avid hurricane tracker, although at this time I live in Texas, but lived in Florida for over 30 years.

This is not exactly Atlantic basin in nature, but still, more records:

Quote
June 02, 2008

Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season Starts Early With a Gender Bender

Alma, the first and record-breaking Tropical Storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean formed the last weekend in May. Alma's remnants re-generated into the first tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin, where it was re-named Arthur from the Atlantic Ocean storm name list. Now, it may be headed back into the Pacific!

Tropical Storm Alma has established three new records for an eastern Pacific storm. Alma was the first tropical storm (in the available records) to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America when she made landfall on May 29. She also made landfall farther east than any previous eastern pacific tropical cyclone, and was the first to do so on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

Gator:  How far back do you think accurate records go?

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 04:29:31 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:57:59 PM

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 03:16:56 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 03:15:04 PM
But... so far this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all...

Um, are you sure about that? Lol.  We've broken all kinds of records and it's only July 21.  Do me a favor, buy some beef jerky and some water because I don't want you knocking on my door if you fail to prepare.  ;)

I am well prepared... with far better than jerky and water!  Records??  What records have been broken?

Well there's the 1st record Burtha broke--WAIT....You mean you don't know anything Burtha yet you say "this hurricane season is not out of the norm at all."  How about this.  Remove foot from mouth my friend. Lol.

1) No hurricane on record has previously formed so far east in the Atlantic before August 1.
2) No other hurricane has ever lasted this long.
3 is questionalble so far)  I think it increased 20% faster then any storm on record..so 3?)

Whatever you feel is the norm, this year is one for the records.

As global warming occurs, it's quite possible that the tropical Atlantic will itself warm up enough to sustain hurricanes earlier in the year â€" and, at the same time, will stay warm enough to sustain them later in the year. This would suggest a gradual lengthening of the hurricane season on both ends, thanks to an expansion of what scientists call the Atlantic region's "warm pool."

Bertha barely made it to a Cat 1 hurricane... Please post links to the stats you refer to as I could not find anything like what you are saying.
My foot is not... nor has it been... anywhere near my mouth.  This may be something that may happen often in Texas however...

ROFLMA ....

Really, you could just google hurricanes to find all these...start with NASA

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2008/h2008_arthur.html

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/hurricane-bertha-55070901



Tropical Storm Dolly is huge and not so organized but conditions are favorable for stregthening. 

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 05:03:27 PM

Bertha barely made it to a Cat 1 hurricane...My foot is not... nor has it been... anywhere near my mouth. 

From NASA

As Bertha moved steadily westward, she intensified, first becoming a hurricane and then exploding into a powerful Category 3 major hurricane Monday with 120 mile per hour winds â€" and possibly, for a brief while, a Category 4.

In Texas, we call it the way we see it.  Lovely Foot in mouth BridgeTroll ;)

But, I shouldn't be so critical...I've not a bottle of water in the house, and any food I have would be rotten in 1 day w/out power.   :o

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 05:09:42 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 05:03:27 PM

Bertha barely made it to a Cat 1 hurricane...My foot is not... nor has it been... anywhere near my mouth. 

From NASA

As Bertha moved steadily westward, she intensified, first becoming a hurricane and then exploding into a powerful Category 3 major hurricane Monday with 120 mile per hour winds â€" and possibly, for a brief while, a Category 4.

In Texas, we call it the way we see it.  Lovely Foot in mouth BridgeTroll ;)

While my foot is still comfortbly where it is supposed to be I will concede the strength you cited... however from the NASA site...

QuoteBertha's History

On Monday, July 7th, 2008, Tropical Storm Bertha, which had been steadily making its way westward across the central Atlantic over the past several days, finally intensified and became the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season. Bertha began as the 2nd tropical depression of the season (td #2). Td #2 formed on the morning of July 3, 2008 about 250 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands from a strong tropical wave moving off of the coast of Africa. Storms that form in this region are known as "Cape Verde" storms. Although not unusual, Cape Verde storms most often occur in August and September during the height of the season.

This is still not unusual... in fact a fairly active year is predicted by most models.  As with most... I will wait to see whether this a record breaking year or not.  If I remember correctly... last year was supposed to have been damn near horrific.

Quote from: RiversideGator on July 21, 2008, 04:58:58 PM
Gator:  How far back do you think accurate records go?

This is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that?  ;D

Could we have accurate records without this thing?

(http://library01.wspilots.com/wp3dvol6.jpg)

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 21, 2008, 05:25:12 PM

This is still not unusual... in fact a fairly active year is predicted by most models.  As with most... I will wait to see whether this a record breaking year or not.  If I remember correctly... last year was supposed to have been damn near horrific.

I'm just a avid tracker but I can never figure out how they predict the season.  Since I've been keeping track, I've noticed that when we have severe winters in the north, and mild winters in the south, as we did this year and in 2003, that the season was going to be active. I'm right so far this year...this is why i started the tread way back in May.  I just wonder why, they predict the season so far in advance.  I'm thinking they should wait or adjust the prediction after the winter...just my gut feeling I know which means nothing really. :)

Quote from: gatorback on July 21, 2008, 05:35:10 PM

Quote from: RiversideGator on July 21, 2008, 04:58:58 PM
Gator:  How far back do you think accurate records go?

This is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that?  ;D

Could we have accurate records without this thing?

(http://library01.wspilots.com/wp3dvol6.jpg)

We can probably agree that accurate records might constitute 1900 to now.  Prior to that who is to say where a storm formed... if one formed... or how long it lasted.  Not to mention baro readings that we have now.  This leave a pretty slim history to rely upon...

Who didn't see this one coming today.  Thanks Dolly  :-\

Crude prices bounce back from $16 slide as Iran nuclear talks end without agreement and traders fear tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico.
...
Gulf storm: Traders also feared that Tropical Storm Dolly could interrupt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm hit the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico over the weekend and reached the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon.

"The market is buying rumors of Dolly, because inventories are already so overdrawn," said Flynn. "They're probably overreacting, because it could only be a Category 1, but potentially any Gulf storm is disturbing."

It doesn't necessarily take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling in the Gulf, however.

"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a Category 5 to do a lot of damage."

The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.

But by midday, it became apparent that Dolly's path would not interfere with many offshore rigs, according to Schork, and investors instead focused on the expiring contract.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/markets/oil/index.htm

Thanks for the info Bridge. Many of the hurricanes that form off of Africa around this time take typical routes like Bertha did. I remember one hurricane 15 years ago forming, swiping Bermuda, going towards Iceland, blowing south and formed again. It lasted much longer than Bertha.

As for the oil, drill here, drill now, pay less. Quit jerking us off...Congress!

The 'Century Club' card, was a wallet sized copy of the 'Hurriphooners' certificate

QuoteThis is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that?

(http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa111/Ocklawaha/Transporte%20Aviation/Hurricainehunters.jpg)

This photo is from the Hurriphooner's at NAS JAX in Nov 1958. The program of flying into the storms and gathering hard data started in 1945 and ended in 1978. Today it is still going on and the Navy is still active in it, but it is no longer a dedicated Navy program with it's own air wing, support etc... Today it is a co-op effort of NWS, NOAA, NASA, NAVY, USAF etc.
Yes, I date myself again, but this was going on quite a bit before y'all were aware of it. I remember talking to some of the flight crews, incredible stories for a young boy! The big old humpbacks sat North of, and at the east end of the old support buildings, in the aircraft tarmac at NAS. That would put collection at 60+ years.  

(http://www.inkycircus.com/photos/uncategorized/hurricane_hunter.jpg)
P3 Just hanging around...

OCKLAWAHA

Here is how its predicted based on the readings and a strict search pattern, they read the "air" and line up the path. The following chart shows the likely path of Hurricane Bonnie.

(http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa111/Ocklawaha/Transporte%20Aviation/hurricanebonniehunterchart.gif)

OCKLAWAHA

Dolly is now a hurricane.

Texas mobilized National Guard troops and residents along the Gulf Coast near the Mexican border were buying plywood, flashlights and gasoline as Tropical Storm Dolly gained strength Tuesday over the Gulf on its way to becoming a hurricane before it hits land.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for parts of the Texas and Mexico coasts, meaning hurricane conditions were expected in those areas by the end of Tuesday.

It's awesome that Texas has stepped up to the plate.  Okay, yes, it's a cat 1 one, but Burtha killed 3 and was nowhere near the states.   

Hate to do this but the misspelling is driving me crazy.  The name of the storm was B-E-R-T-H-A. 

Lol.  Sorry.  What can I say?  I'm an avid "amateur" hurricane tracker.  Lol.  Touché!  Honestly, the tornados from this are going to be bad...I've been told.  Let's see if the old timer's have the inside track on this.

As I said earlier, this is what's so cool about Bertha.  That Texas is taking this serious.  It's like a dry run for something that evidently could be worse and in my opinion; we're getting ready for the real deal when it comes.


[GatorBack Salutes] Brownsville, Texes  ;D

There is a very distinct eye on Dolly.  Looks really organized.  The middle bands are making landfall right on the US/Mexico border.  It looks lik the eye will make landfall a bit further to the north putting the north and northwestern portion of the storm right on top of Corpus Christi.


Check out Weather.com

Hurricane Dolly becomes a category 2 and slows down.  This means wide spread power outages now with more then 13,000 already without power in Camdon county. 

About 30 minutes ago Dolly went to a Cat. 1  :)

We're getting rain here in Hill Country and other parts of the state.  I've not heard of to much damage...seems Dolly just gave us some much needed rain.  Yeah Dolly!

Hurricanes are part of nature and nature depends on them to replenish the lakes, streams and aquifers from time to time.

wow. These things are popping up everywhere. If you went to diner you came back to Edouardo?

Looks like Texas could use the rain...

Fay strengthens and sets eye on Florida.  Guess gas prices are heading up soon.

Quote from: gatorback on August 16, 2008, 09:49:51 AM
Fay strengthens and sets eye on Florida.  Guess gas prices are heading up soon.

Doubtful...

It appears Jacksonville could be impacted by Fay late Tuesday to early Wednesday.  Still, it looks like we won't get hit nearly as bad as Naples, Cape Coral, or Sarasota.  I'm less worried about gas prices than I am about insurance premiums.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?)

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5+gif/203433W_sm.gif)

This things looks awesome.  I can't wait until it passes over our state.

First it's only projected to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall.  Also, it is going to bring torrential rainfall to the state for days.  I know we have seen good rainfall this year, but our aquifers, lakes and rivers are still low from years of rain deficiency. 

Until a few weeks ago, South Florida was still in drought.  Lake Okeechobee, the main water source for South and Central Florida's crops is still 3 ft. below normal.  This hurricane should help our state tremendously.  Come-on, it's Florida, we can always use more water.  Hopefully, if we a get a few more of these bad boys this year, we will finally get to stop hearing about how we have to conserve water. 

We live in a giant swamp, I don't want to conserve water unless it is absolutely necessary.  Thanks Fay!  ( I hope it doesn't really do much damage or injury anyone)

PS.  I hope the lights and cable do not go out here as well.  We just want rain.

Quote from: chipwich on August 16, 2008, 05:33:43 PM
This things looks awesome.  I can't wait until it passes over our state.

First it's only projected to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall.  Also, it is going to bring torrential rainfall to the state for days.  I know we have seen good rainfall this year, but our aquifers, lakes and rivers are still low from years of rain deficiency. 

Until a few weeks ago, South Florida was still in drought.  Lake Okeechobee, the main water source for South and Central Florida's crops is still 3 ft. below normal.  This hurricane should help our state tremendously.  Come-on, it's Florida, we can always use more water.  Hopefully, if we a get a few more of these bad boys this year, we will finally get to stop hearing about how we have to conserve water. 

We live in a giant swamp, I don't want to conserve water unless it is absolutely necessary.  Thanks Fay!  ( I hope it doesn't really do much damage or injury anyone)

PS.  I hope the lights and cable do not go out here as well.  We just want rain.

I agree...

Quote from: chipwich on August 16, 2008, 05:33:43 PM
This things looks awesome.  I can't wait until it passes over our state.

First it's only projected to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall.  Also, it is going to bring torrential rainfall to the state for days.  I know we have seen good rainfall this year, but our aquifers, lakes and rivers are still low from years of rain deficiency. 

Until a few weeks ago, South Florida was still in drought.  Lake Okeechobee, the main water source for South and Central Florida's crops is still 3 ft. below normal.  This hurricane should help our state tremendously.  Come-on, it's Florida, we can always use more water.  Hopefully, if we a get a few more of these bad boys this year, we will finally get to stop hearing about how we have to conserve water. 

We live in a giant swamp, I don't want to conserve water unless it is absolutely necessary.  Thanks Fay!  ( I hope it doesn't really do much damage or injury anyone)

PS.  I hope the lights and cable do not go out here as well.  We just want rain.

I agree. Let's hope it just stays at a tropical storm...basically having the intensity of normal afternoon thunderstorms. Bring the rain; we can do less with the wind.

Fay is behind the deaths of 4 people already.  Rip tides/currents or flooding I'm sure. 3 in Haiti, and 1 in the Dominican Republic.  Oh Florida is now in a state of emergency so gas prices are locked in.  To me, what's scary is the track, I'd bet a cat 2 before land fall...waters on this path are hot hot hot.  Remember, Rita or was it Wilma?  And Ivan, that nut...all very costly.

Quote from: gatorback on August 17, 2008, 12:21:49 AM
Fay is behind the deaths of 4 people already.  Rip tides/currents or flooding I'm sure. 3 in Haiti, and 1 in the Dominican Republic.  Oh Florida is now in a state of emergency so gas prices are locked in.  To me, what's scary is the track, I'd bet a cat 2 before land fall...waters on this path are hot hot hot.  Remember, Rita or was it Wilma?  And Ivan, that nut...all very costly.

Good point Gator.  Let's just pray the winds stay pretty low and it just sucks up alot of gulf moisture.  I really hope no more people get hurt in the path of this storm.

Ok Duvalans, here is your weatherman to tell you some stuff. I am a meteorologist btw, if noone knew that yet.

We are likely to have Fay on us by Tues. evening, and Wed. could be a long day. Depending on it's strength at landfall, will determine the wind speeds here. Right now, it appears we will have sustained 40 to 50, with gusts up to near hurricane force, for at least 6 hours minimum at some point Wednesday. If this verifys, the bridges will be closed for sure, and the city will shut down basically. Considering we'd have mainly South winds, the Buckman, Fuller Warren, Mathews, and Dames Point bridges are highly susceptable to trouble.

If you have larger trees, inspect them today, and look for any loose branches, weak spots, etc. This is to insure that you won't have major damage from branches. Now, if you ahve pines, watch them carefully, it is extremely wet in the soil now, which is not good for any tree.

The models don't seem to have a good handle on the track anymore. The 06Z runs of the GFDL and GFS as well as some others seem to be picking up the on the ULL in the Gomex pulling away to the SW faster than first thought, or maybe the fact that Sat imagery looks like two different CoC'c trying to form. It looks to me like the JSL loop seems to have another CoC or MLC near 20N and 77.5W. This could be a reason there is disagreement in the models, it looks like for now the NHC has stuck with a track close the what it has been for past 24-48 hours, but if this trend continues, I think we will see a track shift the E at the 5:00p ADV

The 12z runs seem to be in a little better agreement, with now only the NGP and UKMET being outsiders.  Just a 50 mile change in forecast track could mean a completely different Fay.

the latest models are showing a shift to the west.


It's always too early to tell when it's 3-4 days out. I like to save the predictions to my personal journal and compare them later to the actual track. The most accurate forecast i've ever documented was the national hurricane center's prediction for hurricane Katrina, they had it right on the money in terms of landfall and intensity. This one seems like there's too many variables still....but hey, i'm no meteorologist, just an amauture storm chaser :D

What site are you guys getting the individual forecast models from?

Quote from: adamh0903 on August 17, 2008, 02:31:56 PM
The 12z runs seem to be in a little better agreement, with now only the NGP and UKMET being outsiders.  Just a 50 mile change in forecast track could mean a completely different Fay.

You talk my language, I have got to meet you!
:D

Hey man, i can talk weather all day long... :)

The last Vis Sat imagery looks to me like fay hasnt moved much in the last 2 hours The water vapor still shows some dry air to the SW keeping convection down on that side of the storm

I agree the changes are subtle, but they are there.  Fay has slowed down and is moving West North West, vs the West track it was taking.  Either way, on Monday, things will be completely different.

Remember, windfields at landfall can be huge, i.e. Katrina! We are likely to experience TS conditions. Which I hope for, get me out of class on Wed. Bad news, it'd close bridges.

Let's face it, we need the water.  And I think this is a good "dry run" for something that could be far more devistating in the future.  We are after all, not even at the 1/2 mark for the 2008 season. 

We need the water?  What part of town are  you living in?  MY wife has been draining the pool on the westside constantly for the past 3 months.  Haven't run my irrigation system for at least 3 months.

Most of Florida's aquifers are still about 15% below their normal long term average.  Also, even though we have had a decent rain season in the Jacksonville metro, other parts of Florida are far from having a great year.  South Florida is still very dry and the everglades are still not completely as wet as they should be this time of year).  The panhandle is still relatively dry (Tallahassee is about 10 inches short of normal rainfall this year). 

So, while it may seem like we have had alot of rain (AND WE REALLY HAVE RECEIVED ALOT).  This storm will stand to benefit statewide water levels.  We need every drop of water before the start of our usually dry winters.

ahhhh okay understand where your comming from now, thanks for the clarification

Sorry that you will have to drain your pool yet again.  I bet it is a pain in the rear.

Perhaps, the best way to help get the water out of there is to invite Metrojax readers over for a pool party! :)

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/AL0608W.gif)

TS Fay has already killed 50 people.

I'm glad reednavy speaks your language, because I sure don't.  Were you saying that there could be two potential centers of circulation (i tried to pick apart the acronyms)?  Is this typical?

It happens...not often. Like two tornados in the same area.  Not typical.  I'd like to know if it's the same thing.  Usually, when 2 centers form, the storms is basically eorganizing itself into a stronger storm.

(http://www.nc911.com/images/Tornadopics/mini-014_two_of_the_3_tornados_near_us.jpg)

Quote from: Captain Zissou on August 18, 2008, 03:06:11 PM
I'm glad reednavy speaks your language, because I sure don't.  Were you saying that there could be two potential centers of circulation (I tried to pick apart the acronyms)?  Is this typical?

Some times when storms are in the rather weak stages Fay was in yesterday the Center of Circulation (CoC) redevelops. Sometimes this happens because of influence in the mid and upper atmosphere, yesterday there was an Upper Level Low (ULL) to the southwest that was affecting Fay to some degree. Today there is defiantly only one CoC and it can clearly be seen on Radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)

A lot of times the CoC is estimated by Satellite until Recon Aircraft can fly through the storm, and since it was over Cuba, the AF Recon plane was not able to fly through the center until this morning, at that time they actually repositioned the CoC

From the Tropical Prediction Center...

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY.  WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED

One cool note is that Info from the USAF Recon plane this morning suggests that the Plane went right to the Cuban Coast (US Planes cant fly over Cuba) and flew down the coast at 5kft.

One of the crew said they did fly over Cuba and that they share research information with them.

Fay sucks, damn her!

I just have one question. Why is it that tornados follow hurricanes?

Quote from: gatorback on August 18, 2008, 07:25:53 PM
I just have one question. Why is it that tornados follow hurricanes?

The friction caused by a landfalling tropical systems winds hitting land. The atmosphere is already rotating, get a good thudnerstorm updraft to tap into it, and you can get quick spin ups.

Also, some models are taking Fay jsut offshore, stalling, then coming back by Friday, then landfalling again near Apalachicola. There's a catch, a few reliable models toss out 15 to 25 inches of rain total by Sunday!

Get the rafts!

Quote from: gatorback on August 18, 2008, 02:36:15 PM
TS Fay has already killed 50 people.

huh??? i read a death toll of less than 15 - in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

ReedNavy, i guess you saw the CMC and GFS.....the GFS has been consistent with that run track for most of the day

Quote from: adamh0903 on August 18, 2008, 09:22:27 PM
ReedNavy, i guess you saw the CMC and GFS.....the GFS has been consistent with that run track for most of the day

Sure have, and that is weather porn and scary as hell at the same time. Can we say Allison #2?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/032224.shtml?5day?large#contents

This thing is beginning to look scary and potentially very damaging.  We may drenched in heavy rain for a week.

I take back anything I said about needing more rain.  If the rain comes at the expense of widespread flooding, then I for one don't want it.  Let's just hope for the best that Fay sweeps across our state quickly and goes on to provide some wetness relief to the mid-Atlantic states.

NOAA however seems to confirm what Reed and Adam are saying.  This storm may very well spin back around and stay with us for quite a while.

50?  Yes, I think a bus with 40 or so on it in the DR got washed away.  Fay is just sitting there trying to develope. I want Fay to head east like right now.

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608_PROB34_F120+gif/094742.gif)

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5+gif/094742W_sm.gif)

Damn. Even tropical storms steer clear of Jacksonville.I swear, we have a hurricane shield around us.

Yep. Pretty much. It's absolutley amazing. All this craziness from our local media and we may not even know a TS is anywhere near us!

Im not sure what you guys are seeing, the current forecast track brings Fay on shore near Jax as a tropical storm, and then moving VERY SLOWLY across north Florida.

Some models even have Fay moving slowly up the Atlantic coast for 24-48 hours and strengthen to just before hurricane force and then moving slowly across the jax area. These are also the same models that was building in the high pressure to north and forecasting a stall and turn to the west. So these models are not outliers they have handled the storm pretty well so far.

I am not a Fear caster, but I would not write this one off, probably not much in the way of wind, but the Rain could be devastating.

You guys are getting a lot of rain.  If she stalls over jacksonville you guys could be wet for days.

(http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0Z/MLB_loop.gif)

Gatorback, that bus you speak of turned out not to have had any deaths associated with it.  I read a correction on msnbc.com that said the original 30+ they claimed was incorrect.  They said two children may have died in the accident, however.

Quote from: adamh0903 on August 19, 2008, 09:23:47 AM
Im not sure what you guys are seeing, the current forecast track brings Fay on shore near Jax as a tropical storm, and then moving VERY SLOWLY across north Florida.

Some models even have Fay moving slowly up the Atlantic coast for 24-48 hours and strengthen to just before hurricane force and then moving slowly across the jax area. These are also the same models that was building in the high pressure to north and forecasting a stall and turn to the west. So these models are not outliers they have handled the storm pretty well so far.

I am not a Fear caster, but I would not write this one off, probably not much in the way of wind, but the Rain could be devastating.

Oh yeah I agree. There's definately no reason to write it off yet, but just seeing the main track of the storm swerve around Jacksonville is a good snapshot of most of the past storms. They usually have the 3-5 day forecast aimed straight at us, then after a few adjustments it's hitting well to our north or south. And even if we are directly in the projected path, it's usually from a west coast landfalling storm. By the time it tracks across most of Florida, they usually have little or no punch and the wind field has shrank considerably and it winds up being non stop rain with a gust here and there.

Plus, if it didn't strenghten rapidly in the warm Gulf waters, I'm assuming the slightly cooler Atlantic waters won't give it much steam either, unless there was some dryness or sheer I didn't take into account.

The storm track does not swerve around Jacksonville.

It's a joke dammit! Jesus!  I've never been on such a stiff message board before. It looks like it's beelining for us then says nope nope nope, that place sucks, not going there. If you look at the track, clearly the eye hits Nassua county, i mean that's exaclty where it's going to hit, the graph says so! So yeah, it's not going to hit Jacksonville at all. it completely swerves around. It's our "Hurricane shield" in full effect.

but either way, even if the path of this "storm" comes right over us, barring any freakish strengthening in the Atlantic, if it even pops out there. By the time it gets here it'll be mild wind and rain like they all have been in the past, therefore supporting my argument that not only can't Jacksonville get any first rate entertainment acts to come through here, we  can't even get first or second tier Hurricanes or tropical storms to pay us a visit. We always get the left overs. It's just not fair.....

Not according to your local media.  They have Jax as in the middle of the path.  Check out firstcoastnews.com.

That's Tim Deagan hyping it up. I swear everytime we go through this he puts the path of the storm right over downtown. Ask JSO and St. Johns county PD, they have to field off frantic calls from worried citizens everytime our news leaders forecast a storm. I try to stick noaa.gov or a marine forecast. They're not doing it for the ratings.

Alright, let's start taking bets!

Bridge closures, how many JEA customers without powers, how many trees will be down.

I'm placing my odds on less than 5,000 customers without power.

This is the mentallity here.

I will say this, and make it clear.

This city needs to be taught a lesson, a harsh one at that. Look at Houston from Allison in 2001, nuff said.

Every single person that thinks this city is safe needs to be slapped to the floor, I'm so sick of this thinking. Jax needs to learn, and it will take the hard way for it to be drilled into quite a few heads.

Hate me for saying that, but it is the only way, tough cookies.

(http://inlinethumb12.webshots.com/24523/2526340480103291680S500x500Q85.jpg) (http://good-times.webshots.com/photo/2526340480103291680EzizdT)

I didn’t mean to turn this into a pissing contest about forecasting but the track is from your noaa.gov site...actually it’s from the Tropical Prediction Center.


As a forecaster you have to look at every option, and as I said earlier, some early model runs had Fay doing some strengthening before landfall. Now on the latest model runs, more models are in agreement on the current track, and the GFDL has Fay a minimal hurricane before landfall near our coast.

Can all this change? Sure it can, it can do whatever it wants to do, this isn’t an exact science, but what if it didn’t change, what if the GFDL is right, what if this thing does strengthen before landfall, and worse than that, what if Tim or whoever knew that was an option and never warned us...Assuming it would do as a lot of other storms has and turned away....

If I see a Katrina bearing down on Jax Beach, I doubt i'm going wind surfing. But a storm like this? It's nothing to get upset about.

I'm not saying we can't be hit, i'm saying statisticaly, we're safer than most of the state from taking a direct hit by a major hurricane. I don't think we're all complacent and not taking them seriously. Just give us one to take seriously and then see how people react. The last true test we had was Floyd back in 99.

Any chance I'll have to eat my own words over the next few days?

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v451/eldeadcow/AL062008mlts.gif)

Fay did somehow manage to strengthen slightly while over land.

The GFDL has been showing to path for about 48 hours now, along with the CMC and GFS, (not shown on this graph) one thing interesting to note from the model run you posted is now the UKMET, which has been sort of an outlier for a few days, seems to be in better agreement with the rest of the models.

The core of Fay tightened up over land, which is probably what led to the initial pressure drop, but the increase in wind speed from the 11a adv to the 1p adv was incredible, there has always been arguments of whether or not storms can feed off of lake Okeechobee and the everglades, I guess it did in this case.

In Moore Haven, winds have been sustained at 56mph gusting to 76 from weather station reports there.

The land its crossed so far is actually the Everglades.  So I guess it could be assumed that swampland is just like open ocean water for storms.

We're under a Hurricane Watch.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
528 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
OUT TO 60 NM

AMZ454-200500-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
528 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 843 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

Any chance of rapid intensification? We’d be looking at approximately a cat 1 if this forecast holds steady, correct?

One of the afternoon runs of the GFDL model had the storm at Max Cat 1/Min Cat 2 level, but that was the only model forecasting that strength, so I would call that model an outlier for the time being, but nothing is out of question with this storm.

Most of the models seem to be in agreement with this general motion now, so I think we can figure this is going to be the general track with probably only slight adjustments from here on out.

I apologize if my comments earlier were overzealous and extremely opinionated. The truth is I was banking on the forecast being way off,  but only because I actually get my hopes that we'll get a tropical storm or minor hurricane just to put some energy in the atmosphere and witness this force of nature up close. I got so sick of the false alarms I started chasing them about 9 years ago as a very very amateur storm chaser.

People have their opinions about that but I really do enjoy experiencing this up close and in person. I do not wish however, that any damage or harm come to our city or citizens. That's part of the beauty of chasing a storm, you get to experience the intensity of it and  hopefully go home to calmer weather.  Charley was my scariest experience, Dennis was fairly calm for a cat 3,  Frances was 300 miles of whitewash and Jeanne definitely packed a pretty strong punch, all of which I was within 10-20 miles of the eyewall upon landfall, except for Dennis. I seriously hope Fay isn't' anything like those, because I wound up being stuck in South Florida on the last two I chased for over a day, couldn't find gas for nearly 100 miles and cell phone service was out for about a 50 mile radius around ground zero on Jeanne. Those were all strong cat 3's though. I'm hoping even if Fay becomes a 1 and is a direct hit, we'll have a quick recovery.

no harm taken. Look man, mother nature is awesome.  Who doesn't want to watch it. I went sailing once as a storm went up the coast and to be honest was awe strucken to the point were I always tracked the storms after that. I was like 12 at the time.

That fact of the matter is, there's at the very least a tropical storm in our area, and predictions call for it to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane while it slips off shore, then turn back in around St. Augustine. Even if it remains a TS, it will still bring heavy rain and wind to the general area...that'll mean flooding, wind damage, very likely thousands will lose power and potential for storm related injuries.

There have been storm related deaths and injuries with category 1 hurricanes, many of which are a result of people being complacent about category 1 hurricanes (and TS) and being ignorant to the fact that they are still pose dangerous conditions.

It was a good call to close the schools and city offices that are non-essential. This allows people to prepare for the real threats this storm poses. It boils down to common sense and heeding the warnings of the weather/emergency officials.

Let's hope that the storm loses it's punch and that we all make it through this safely.

A little humor for the storm... :)

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/082008/dic_320670784.shtml

Don't stare into cone of concern


By TERRY DICKSON, The Times-Union


ST. SIMONS ISLAND - Here we go again. Every year we go through this, watching storms coming at us and hoping they'll be like Madonna, far less dangerous than they appear on TV.
   
We've got all these TV weatherpersons - excuse me, meteorologists - who hype storms and make us want to crawl under the bed with our blanky and suck our thumbs until the thunder and wind fade away. With brows knit with deep concern, they form sweeping angles over their weather maps with their hands to tell us where Fay will go. They did it with Hugo, Floyd and Katrina.

"If you live anywhere in this cone of concern,'' one said of the projected path, "you need to be making preparations right now.''

The weatherpersons seem to love the cone of concern, the tornado watch boxes and other little overlays for their maps.

OK. So here's the Dickson hurricane plan: a) Collect all the important papers, wedding photos, pictured with grandpa and a stringer of fish, insurance policies, aspirin. b) Put them in the car. c) Whoops, almost forgot the dog. d) Start the car. e) Shut off the car and check the back door. f) Repeat step e. g) Drive until you see the mountains.

A weatherperson's hurricane plan always involves extra hair mousse or spray depending on their personal preferences.

The acute angle of angst.

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, the Coast Guard just informed us it has gone to Situation Yankee, whatever that is, at the Port of Jacksonville and outlying areas. I've got news for them, we've had situational Yankees on St. Simons for a long time. It is especially bad on Easter.

And now the weatherpersons are telling us that Fay may cross Florida, go out into the Atlantic and come back ashore near the state line. So now the cone of concern looks more like a cornucopia of concern with a big curve in the middle.

The parabola of paranoia.

Out on the St. Simons pier Tuesday, folks were taking the threat of bad weather in stride. Merrill Smith was in his usual spot in a chair watching the ends of his fishing rods for any signs of movement.

"Gives me something to do,'' he said. "Gas is so high we can't travel.''

Tropical storms can take a high toll on the coast, but Smith knows what they can do inland. He moved to St. Simons from Macon about five years ago, turning his vacation home into a permanent residence. He and his wife were on St. Simons when Tropical Storm Alberto came across the Florida Panhandle in early July 1994, stalled out in Georgia as a depression and dumped 21 inches of rain in three days flooding everything from Macon to the southwest corner of the state.

"We had trouble getting home,'' he said. Then with a smile he says, "If it wasn't for this pier, I wouldn't be here.''

The trapezoid of tribulation.

Behind him, Annie Jackson, a youthful 67, is putting whiting in her cooler with amazing regularity. She fishes every day she can, but says, "If they say evacuate, I'm gone.''

Maybe not for Fay, but isn't she fretful about what's coming.

"That's the Lord's work. I'm not worried about it,'' she said.

Tonight, she'll be in church while others are home watching moussed meteorologists.

Those of us not in church will reside uneasily in the sphere of fear.
terry.dickson@jacksonville.com, (912) 264-0405

It's this kind of crap that results in people becoming complacent, and heeding real warnings. Personally, I don't find humor in it, in fact, I feel it's rather irresponsible.

Quote from: jbm32206 on August 20, 2008, 07:58:46 AM
It's this kind of crap that results in people becoming complacent, and heeding real warnings. Personally, I don't find humor in it, in fact, I feel it's rather irresponsible.

Jeez... relax a little.  Have you been watching the local weather guys... they are so excited I think they will wet their pants...

Quote from: Lunican on August 18, 2008, 01:51:28 PM
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/AL0608W.gif)

I am relaxed, and it's their job to continue reporting the status of the storm. In fact, they've been saying that it's looking more like conditions will not be quite as bad as predicted last night. It's also a fact that even if it remains a tropical storm, we'll still have lots of rain and the potential for flooding, power outages, tree damages, and so on.

My stance remains about feeling it's that kind of irresponsible articles that cause complacency, which can be dangerous in of itself.

Ok... perhaps it is a flaw in my personality that seems to find a sliver of humor in virtually any situation... :)

I'm right there with you Bridge Troll.

The Weather Channel reporters are the worst.  You watch them and you'll think the world is comming to an end.  Yesterday was hilarious, they were out in the street in the rain wobbling and staggering around to appear that they were being blown around.  The weather was nothing worse than the average Florida thunderstorm.  :)

People should be prepared but at the same time they should also maintain their composure and not panic from all of the weatherman hype.  They live for this stuff and of course they're going to make a big deal about it.

There are only two things you need to weather a tropical storm or hurricane... Beer and ice!!  :)

CHEERS!!!

Man,  Jim Cantore is the leader of the pack when it comes to dramatic weatherman. He really does know how to hype it up! Earlier in the thread I said Tim Deegan hypes it up but he's actually being very "well this isn’t' certain" with this storm, so I have to give him props for that.

Nothing tops this one time at Jax Beach though; I saw a news reporter standing in front of a stop sign, camera guy to her front and another guy ducked down behind the reporter, SHAKING the stop sign with his hands, to create the illusion of higher winds.

That's why I started chasing these things, I just got tired of watching some jackass standing out in the winds and decided I’d rather be the jackass experiencing the situation and while trying to document it without all the made for t.v. drama. All I have on tape is Charley and some of Frances, freaking Jeanne damaged my camcorder & mini dv tape beyond repair which is why I’m itching to get some new footage. Looks like I'll have to wait as thankfully the forecast models are keeping Fay close to the coast as a moderate t.s. . These storms aren't the same when they come to you....I like my electricity   

Damn, you REALLY need a spelling lesson. I mean badly.

Quote from: David on August 20, 2008, 11:59:39 AMNothing tops this one time at Jax Beach though; I saw a news reporter standing infront of a stop sign, camera guy to her front and another guy ducked down behind the reporter, SHAKING the stop sign with his hands, to create the illusion of higher winds.

That is completely out of line and that's what adds to people not taking threats of storms, seriously! They should be ashamed of themselves for doing that kind of crap!

Classic hype video... :D :D :D

http://www.youtube.com/v/OTogixKBAJU

Unfortunately, hyping the weather is what many stations do to boost ratings. The Weather Channel has lost loads of credibility with their junk reporting. In many of these cases, you have the news and weather channels creating news rather than reporting it.

Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and even most cat 1 hurricanes are the equivalent of normal, severe thunderstorms that occur everyday in the South. Of course, if there is a threat of wind or rain damage, one must be prepared, but that applies to any severe weather. Use common sense. People shouldn't be walking around outside during a thunderstorm, but they should pay attention to the weather for their safety. The same logic applies with a named storm. It really is elementary.

what a moron! How shameful is that! I like how they called her out on it...that's funny

Quote from: Charleston native on August 20, 2008, 12:29:38 PM
Unfortunately, hyping the weather is what many stations do to boost ratings. The Weather Channel has lost loads of credibility with their junk reporting. In many of these cases, you have the news and weather channels creating news rather than reporting it.

Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and even most cat 1 hurricanes are the equivalent of normal, severe thunderstorms that occur everyday in the South. Of course, if there is a threat of wind or rain damage, one must be prepared, but that applies to any severe weather. Use common sense. People shouldn't be walking around outside during a thunderstorm, but they should pay attention to the weather for their safety. The same logic applies with a named storm. It really is elementary.

I couldn't agree with you more!

(http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif)

Quote from: reednavy on August 20, 2008, 12:04:22 PM
Damn, you REALLY need a spelling lesson. I mean badly.

What? What did I butcher? I'm doble cheking everying ammit!

Ah, Deegan and Cantore. I see. Anything else, spelling nazi?

Has it moved at all? It's sure showing good, clear rotation...

Quote from: jbm32206 on August 20, 2008, 01:55:09 PM
Has it moved at all? It's sure showing good, clear rotation...

The 2PM advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/201742.shtml?) is saying that it's basically stationary over the Cape right now...this thing just wants to take it's good old time getting here, doesn't it? We're used to tourists taking their time driving through the state trying to figure out where they're going, but this is borderline ridiculous.

The latest track didn't change much from previously either...looks like tomorrow afternoon is going to suck (rain-wise) when that east side is sitting over us.

Quote from: David on August 20, 2008, 01:54:44 PM

Quote from: reednavy on August 20, 2008, 12:04:22 PM
Damn, you REALLY need a spelling lesson. I mean badly.

What? What did I butcher? I'm doble cheking everying ammit!

Ah, Deegan and Cantore. I see. Anything else, spelling nazi?

Charley and Frances

Meh, tomato tomahta. So i'm not good with names!

Just bustin ya chops. I just like my weather data correct. I'm a meteorologist, what do you expect.

I understand, you pretty much have my dream job.

We're getting some notable winds tonight...

A freaking tree limb just fell on my car. Not too big, but enough to put a dent in it. But it's only a dent that'll blend in with all the other dents I've collected over the past six years. The power's flickering in my Riverside apartment as I type this, but thankfully I'm on a laptop with an aircard.

I think some of the confusion on here is  between the public's weariness of what the media portrays vs what meteorologist do.

Predicting the weather = tough job.

Standing by the ocean when a storm's making landfall and saying "don't hang out near the ocean as a storm's making landfall" = not so tough, but freaking fun.

This thing has been stationary for so long I swear I have seen the same cloud fly over my house a couple times... :)

I'm OF.  Over Fay, well, I can't honestly say that.  I'm sticking around to see if she goes off into the  GOF and then makes another landfall.  What's most a single storm has hit FL?  I'm thinking Ivan and 3 times, but I'm not sure.

Yeah, Faye is so Wednesday!

How long did Frances hang around back in 2004? I remember that being a rough couple of days, not because of the higher winds, but just because it.would.not.go.AWAY!

I really need to raise the bar as far as when I start to watch storms.  Maybe next year I will not monitor storms when they are tropical disturbances.  Perhaps my new level is tropical wave.  But I'm so addicted.

It's a severe addiction man. I should've gone to school for meteorology since it's pretty much one of the few things I get excited about.

Maybe if the news media wouldn't say "Stay tuned..." I'd be okay.

Wind damage to JEA signage downtown.

Email sent just now:

All,

With the increase in wind speeds, we have lost a portion of the JEA logo cover on the Tower roof.  A portion of the logo covering remains precariously on the roof.  Due to the winds and the need to use a ladder to access this sign, it is unsafe for us to attempt to remove the remaining cover.  Because of this safety issue we are asking that all employees needing to travel between the Tower and the Customer Center use the basement.  

These things never get old to watch....

Anyone read the 11a Discussion from the NHC....They seem to have thrown their hands up and said....we dont know what she is doing...

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.

These guys know way more about these things than I do, but I am going to go out on a limb a say she wont travel as far south as they excpect. You can see on the Water Vapor loop that the High is building to the north but is building more the the SE than S and has not built as far south as expected at this point.

It's indeed, the weirdest of storms...and as long as this sucker sits below us, the more rain we'll have, for longer!

Schools in Duval will be closed again tomorrow

The life just took, was that a surfer in Jacksonville or Flagler?

Jacksonville...Neptune Beach...21 year old girl

it's 2 in Jacksonville now? They need to get out of the water.

Quote from: gatorback on August 21, 2008, 05:33:30 PM
it's 2 in Jacksonville now? They need to get out of the water.

Duh... WTF are they thinking?? ::)

Clearly, they weren't....so much for heeding warnings or using common sense. It's just a shame that a young life is gone because of that.

Take it from a beginner level surfer who knows novices and experts in surfing: many surfers love tropical storms and hurricanes because they create 8-10 foot swells that normally don't occur in the Atlantic. These swells create wave lines that are comparable to surfing at the Pipeline or around Malibu.

Unfortunately, it's a part of the surfer culture on the East coast.

Natural selection at its finest.  I'll probably get flak for this, but I don't consider it 'tragic' if they went and put themselves in harm's way despite the wall-to-wall coverage and warnings to the contrary.  Idiots.

３ more  more weeks till the height of the hurricane season.  Things should start to pick up now...

Quote from: Charleston native on August 22, 2008, 10:40:35 AM
Take it from a beginner level surfer who knows novices and experts in surfing: many surfers love tropical storms and hurricanes because they create 8-10 foot swells that normally don't occur in the Atlantic. These swells create wave lines that are comparable to surfing at the Pipeline or around Malibu.

Unfortunately, it's a part of the surfer culture on the East coast.

I'm one of those that used to love the Atlantic storms because of the surf they created, however, surfing at the moment the storm was hitting was still a large blip on my stupidity radar.  The days leading up to and afterwards made for much better and cleaner lines and sets.  Surfing during a storm is like surfing in a washing machine.  Very tiring and very stupid, IMO.

Round two!

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W_sm2+gif/143912W_sm.gif)

Hopefully this one doesn't stumble back & forth across the state like drunk b***h fay did, if it touches Florida at all.

Very similar track though...

Quote from: Jason on August 25, 2008, 12:13:46 PM
I'm one of those that used to love the Atlantic storms because of the surf they created, however, surfing at the moment the storm was hitting was still a large blip on my stupidity radar.  The days leading up to and afterwards made for much better and cleaner lines and sets.  Surfing during a storm is like surfing in a washing machine.  Very tiring and very stupid, IMO.

You're right, the best sets I've seen usually have the TS or hurricane bypassing the coastline, usually about 10-20 miles from shore. Call me chicken or just a cautious beginner, I couldn't bring myself to go out there. Another very good point...it is incredibly stupid to think that you'll get the best lines with the storm making landfall. Indeed, all you get from this experience is a severe waterlogging...and unfortunately in this case, exhaustion leading to drowning.

Good one Charleston, go out in the middle of a major storm and catch the really big one...


YeeHaw!

Next thing you know, your cresting the new Beach Blvd. Bridge and headed straight down the highway toward
Wal-Mart!

YIKES!

OCKLAWAHA

I may be giving away my age here but some of the best waves I ever surfed in this area happened during hurricane David as it moved north offshore along the coast.  We caught the big swells from the storm while catching the offshore winds from the storms rotation.  Beautiful day!!!!!!!!!

Quote from: Ocklawaha on August 25, 2008, 12:58:33 PM
Good one Charleston, go out in the middle of a major storm and catch the really big one...


YeeHaw!

Next thing you know, your cresting the new Beach Blvd. Bridge and headed straight down the highway toward
Wal-Mart!

YIKES!

OCKLAWAHA

ROFL! Now that's an idea............

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!   8)

Quote from: jaxnative on August 25, 2008, 01:09:31 PM
I may be giving away my age here but some of the best waves I ever surfed in this area happened during hurricane David as it moved north offshore along the coast.  We caught the big swells from the storm while catching the offshore winds from the storms rotation.  Beautiful day!!!!!!!!!

Whoa, you are showing your age there, jaxnative!  ;) I was only 5 years old when David came by my hometown.

Let's not go overboard here!!!!  I do think I had to skip school to get to the beach. ;D ;D ;D ;D

BTW CN, I should have some more contacts for you shortly.  I'll PM you.

 :D LOL. I was too chicken to even skip school for the beach!  ;D

Excellent. Muchas gracias, mi amigo!

I've seen this track before...I just bet TD #7 moves up off the east coast as typical...that this would mean more rain for Florida.

Quote from: Charleston native on August 25, 2008, 12:51:29 PM

Quote from: Jason on August 25, 2008, 12:13:46 PM
I'm one of those that used to love the Atlantic storms because of the surf they created, however, surfing at the moment the storm was hitting was still a large blip on my stupidity radar.  The days leading up to and afterwards made for much better and cleaner lines and sets.  Surfing during a storm is like surfing in a washing machine.  Very tiring and very stupid, IMO.

You're right, the best sets I've seen usually have the TS or hurricane bypassing the coastline, usually about 10-20 miles from shore. Call me chicken or just a cautious beginner, I couldn't bring myself to go out there. Another very good point...it is incredibly stupid to think that you'll get the best lines with the storm making landfall. Indeed, all you get from this experience is a severe waterlogging...and unfortunately in this case, exhaustion leading to drowning.

I had gotten pretty experienced by the time I was surfing the swells from hurricanes.  Noreasters also produce some pretty good waves when the conditions are right, but you have to be willing to freeze your butt off!!

I grew up in Daytona and my highschool was right across the street from the beach.  From the second floor we had a view of the ocean between the condos and would check it daily to see if the surf was up.  If so, grab a board and hit the beach during lunch break (had 50 minutes) and be back in time for 5th period!  Man, those were the days.

QuoteI've seen this track before...I just bet TD #7 moves up off the east coast as typical...that this would mean more rain for Florida.

Looks like we may be in for nice some swells from the south.  How long before it gets close?

Quote from: Jason on August 25, 2008, 02:07:11 PM
I had gotten pretty experienced by the time I was surfing the swells from hurricanes.  Noreasters also produce some pretty good waves when the conditions are right, but you have to be willing to freeze your butt off!!

I grew up in Daytona and my highschool was right across the street from the beach.  From the second floor we had a view of the ocean between the condos and would check it daily to see if the surf was up.  If so, grab a board and hit the beach during lunch break (had 50 minutes) and be back in time for 5th period!  Man, those were the days...

Wow, Jason, you were extremely blessed. We had a 50-minute free period as seniors, but the beach was 20 minutes away from our high school. I'm sure you thoroughly enjoyed your time at high school!  8)

Yeah, I had some fun!  The beach is why I failed algebra 2 though... that was my 5th period class.  ;)


BTW, Weather undergroud has TD#7 upgraded to TS Gustav.

Yeah!  Gustav!!!  That thing formed really quickly didn't he.

All things considered, looks like a Panhandle landfall sometime this weekend or early next week.

The forecast track looks awfully famaliar. I wonder if this one will be as problematic forecasting it as Fay was?

I never like it when I hear that Wizard of Oz scarecrow speaking on the 6 o:clock news, "some go this way and some go that way..."

OCKLAWAHA

That cone is huge so all bets are off at the moment.

I'm getting that sick feeling...

BOHICA!

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: gatorback on August 25, 2008, 08:29:36 PM
That cone is huge so all bets are off at the moment.

dats what she said.

Hurricane Gustav formed overnight with winds 80 mph. Gustav is probably going to be a major storm.  Looks like it is tracking away from FL and toward the Yucatan.  This can only mean 1 thing.  Higher oil prices.   :-\

N.O. may want to begin preparation now...


(http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_07.gif)

Let's hope that the "XTRP" track doesn't happen.

If this thing hits the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana may see another major storm.

I get the feeling they are thinking if it hits the Gulf of Mexico, the steering currents will shove it east into Florida.

I'll call it,

Landfall above Tampa, cross state and out near us.

YUCK.

OCKLAWAHA
This will NOT change oil prices, Bush will kill Amtrak to save the national budget and rescue the victims!

Yuck is right...Tropical Storm Gustav with winds up to 50 mph is heading for a US landfall heading straight toward all those oil platfroms.  Wait, is this projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall? :-\

Quote from: gatorback on August 27, 2008, 07:32:37 AM
Yuck is right...Tropical Storm Gustav with winds up to 50 mph is heading for a US landfall heading straight toward all those oil platfroms.  Wait, is this projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall? :-\

and how much oil was spilled when katrina came through the same area? NONE!
the sky is not going to fall!

True.  Very true.  We got lucky..well, except for your pocketbook.  Remember, the price at the pump when katrina came throught...yes, that is starting to happen now and the g dawg is hundres of miles away...and not even a hurricane...so what is your point?

Quote from: gatorback on August 27, 2008, 08:28:22 AM
True.  Very true.  We got lucky..well, except for your pocketbook.  Remember, the price at the pump when katrina came throught...yes, that is starting to happen now and the g dawg is hundres of miles away...and not even a hurricane...so what is your point?

the price of oil and nat gas rose because of prospect of disruption to supplies which did happen because the rigs were shut down and distribution points on land were damaged and close for a brief time. My point is that it is this same fear of spills from offshore rigs that is driving the resistance to allowing more offshore exploration in the US, Katrina was a worst case scenario and there was no environmental accidents, the fear of off shore drilling by enviro whackos, who are really economic terrorists is just a red herring issue that is and will continue to stunt our nation's energy growth and in turn hurt our economy which will hurt all of us

Quote...no enrironmental accidents..

If that's what we're calling Oil Spills today then I completely agree with you.  Don't know which issue of Big Oil Weekly you got your information from but during hurricane Katrina radarsat snapped this pic of massive oil spills where you said there were none.

(http://skytruth.mediatools.org/sites/default/files/photo_import/1904/935/11938-lg.jpg)

I'm all for safe drilling.  I think we have a ways to go as evident from the photo.  Don't you think? 

PS Shell is starting to evacuate their personnel from their platforms today.

Just days before the 3 day weekend...

QuoteBy PABLO GORONDI, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 47 minutes ago

Oil prices rose to above $117 a barrel Wednesday on concerns that Tropical Storm Gustav may disrupt operations in the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. crude production.

Gator, again you miss the point. Millions of gallons of crude naturally seeps into the oceans everyday, so oil platforms in the Gulf are trivial in comparison. There were a few minor spills, but the ocean is doing just fine since Katrina. The "Big Oil Weekly" comment was out of line...apv provided some legitimate arguments for the price increases. All the more reason to drill in places that are void of hurricanes...like ANWR.

Quote from: gatorback on August 27, 2008, 09:36:46 AM
Just days before the 3 day weekend...

QuoteBy PABLO GORONDI, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 47 minutes ago

Oil prices rose to above $117 a barrel Wednesday on concerns that Tropical Storm Gustav may disrupt operations in the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. crude production.

oil price quotes are taken from a futures exchange where oil is traded.
the operative word is FUTURES!
investors are buying these contracts hoping that this storm will damage or disrupt oil supplies in the gulf, if they are right and the storm causes damages that disrupts supplies they stand to make a handsome profit, if the storm misses the area or hits the area but causes little disruption then prices could tumble because these speculators will have to sell the contracts they have no use for.
The problem is that these jiggles in the market are moving through the supply chain way too quickly and having too much of an effect on the end consumers (you and me).
Prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather, the real culprits in the fuel market is the middle men, the guys between the oil companies and the fuel station owners who are the ones jerking the prices we pay at the pump around more than necessary

CN:  Perhaps you missed his point..."how much oil was spilled when katrina came through the same area? NONE!", which is misinformation.  That what we found the pipelines were not purged of oil...  In fact, in May 2006, the U.S. Minerals Management Service published their offshore damage assessment: 113 platforms totally destroyed, and - more importantly - 457 pipelines damaged, 101 of those major lines with 10" or larger diameter. At least 741,000 gallons were spilled from 124 reported sources (the Coast Guard calls anything over 100,000 gallons a "major" spill). See the photo above for the slicks.

So I really don't see your point "a few minor spills."  And your opinion is respected here.

apv:  I agree with your argument on price increase...that this is a problem across all commodiities.

CN: With respect, my comment is not out of line I want to know where you guys are getting this information?

My info is from U.S. Minerals Managment Service and the U.S. Coast Guard.

I wonder what New Orleans is doing in preparation for Gustav?  NWS shows it on a colision course with Louisiana as  cat 3.  Could this be Katrina 2??

Oop, never mind.  I found your source.  Sen. John McCain???

QuoteSen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) policy adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer’s claim that “we withstood hurricanes Rita and Katrina and did not spill a drop” of oil.

Schuster pointed out that “the U.S. Mineral Management Service said that Katrina and Rita caused 124 offshore spills for a total of more than 743,000 gallons of oil and refined products spilled” and asked Pfotenhauer if she wanted to “take back” what she said:

SCHUSTER: So Nancy, do you want to take back what you said?

PFOTENHAUER: Well, I actually do. I was misinformed…the point is still that we had a remarkable performance, that you had about 16,000 barrels that were lost during two of the worst storms that have ever…keep in mind David that 1,700 barrels per day naturally seeps into the ocean floor, so 365 days a year you’re at about 620,000 barrels per day, pardon me per year, that naturally seep into the ocean floor. So this is a really remarkable performance of technology.

But Pfotenhauer, a right-wing energy lobbyist, is misinformed still. According to a report from the County of Santa Barbara, CA, “the effects of seeps and spills differ hugely.” As one planner put it, “if seeps and spills are the same, why aren’t all the beaches covered with mounds of fresh tar and dead birds?”:

The key difference has to do with release rates and spatial concentration of the oil. Seeps release large amounts of oil over large areas of the ocean gradually throughout the year. Spills release large amounts of oil from a point source in a short time.

In fact the real “remarkable performance” has been the parade of conservatives repeating false claims to justify expanding offshore drilling.

OK storms are bad for the Gulf of Mexico environmently, but back on topic...

Quote from: Jason on August 27, 2008, 10:31:46 AM
I wonder what New Orleans is doing in preparation for Gustav?  NWS shows it on a colision course with Louisiana as  cat 3.  Could this be Katrina 2??

hopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

It's still too early to call. With each model run, they've continued to cluster, as well as shift every so slightly further east with each cycle.

3 died in Haiti and 8 died in the DR because of TS Gustav.  The reason is the storm is moving slowly with heavy rain.  We don't need a Fay II right now.

I'd rather Fay II over Katrina II though.

Quotehopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

I sure hope so.  Does anyone know what kind of progress has been made on the levees?  Are they just repaired or are they actually rebuilt properly?

Quote from: apvbguy on August 27, 2008, 10:36:42 AM

Quote from: Jason on August 27, 2008, 10:31:46 AM
I wonder what New Orleans is doing in preparation for Gustav?  NWS shows it on a colision course with Louisiana as  cat 3.  Could this be Katrina 2??

hopefully they learned from katrina, the locals bumbling there caused so many of the problems there.

This is spooky...

QuoteNEW ORLEANS (AP) _ As Friday's third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina approaches, officials in Louisiana and Mississippi are keeping an eye on storm Gustav.

The storm was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm after moving over Haiti but forecasters expect it to regain strength and move into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

Long-range forecasts say the storm could be a major hurricane threatening the central Gulf Coast by Monday, but they caution it's too early to identify a specific path.

New Orleans officials are making plans in case the city has to be evacuated. People who might need help evacuating are being advised to call the city's 311 information number.

Mississippi Emergency Management Director Mike Womack is advising south Mississippi residents to have a plan in place.

...they did this last time....people don't call...and they don't leave....

What if they're thinking they survived Katrina so they'll survive TS Gustav....that the levees wont fail this time.

Gustav is back over open water but has some land disturbance and some sheer on the northern side which is impacting it a little...but once Gustav gets further away from land, it is expected to intensify.

Gustav has state on alert
by Mark Schleifstein and Michelle Krupa, The Times-Picayune Tuesday August 26, 2008, 10:41 PM
The threat of a rapidly strengthening Hurricane Gustav reaching the Louisiana coastline by Sunday prompted state and local officials to plan for a possible evacuation and triggered a cloud of worry among residents.

At 7 p.m. Tuesday, Gustav was 60 miles west of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 155 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. A Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, Gustav likely will strengthen during the next few days as it moves south of Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Gustav -- the first serious storm to threaten Louisiana since Katrina and Rita -- will grow into a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds by Sunday afternoon, when it is expected to hover about 300 miles south of the Mississippi River's mouth. That forecast places the New Orleans area within the five-day "cone of error, " which accounts for expected variation in predictions, and indicates a 5 percent chance of tropical storm force winds -- at least 45 mph -- reaching the city by Sunday afternoon. There is a 5 percent chance of 65 mph winds reaching Plaquemines, St. Bernard and lower Jefferson Parish by the same time.

Gov. Bobby Jindal said he could declare a state of emergency as early as Thursday, which would begin an evacuation process resulting in the state exercising contracts for as many as 700 buses.

"Be ready, " Jindal said. "This is a serious storm."

Assisted evacuations could begin as early as Friday, and evacuations from hospitals and medical care facilities could begin Saturday. Evacuations by rail also could begin Saturday.

Contraflow, in which all lanes of major highways would direct traffic away from the storm impact area, could begin Saturday or early Sunday, Jindal said.

"These are the timetables as we see them now, " Jindal said.

He said the state has identified 10,000 critical care beds for evacuees and 68,000 regular beds for evacuation.

The Louisiana National Guard has been put on alert, Jindal said. The number of guardsmen and the place of deployment will be determined as the direction of the storm clarifies, Jindal said.

'We're ready to go'

Meanwhile, Gustav rattled some residents.

"If it hits the city anywhere near how (Katrina) hit, no one's going to come back, " said Wilma Crochet, 68, of Metairie, while shopping for emergency supplies at Lowe's on Veterans Memorial Boulevard.

She predicted that more people would evacuate earlier.

"My beautician told me she already booked an extra hotel room someplace up north called Branton, and we could stay there, " she said.

In New Orleans, Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Director Jerry Sneed said city officials are poised to begin an evacuation countdown.

"We're ready to go, " he said.

The city's timetable dovetails with a regional plan that has residents in different locations staging their evacuations to reduce congestion on the few highways leading north and west out of the area.

The city's plan calls for residents to gather at 17 sites, where they will be picked up by Regional Transit Authority buses and taken to the Union Passenger Terminal downtown. From there, they board state-chartered buses headed for shelters in Shreveport, Monroe and Alexandria, or Amtrak trains to Jackson, Miss.

Sneed urged residents who cannot get themselves to the loading sites, for any reason, to register for a program that will pick them up at their homes.

To sign up for New Orleans' city-assisted evacuation plan, residents should call 311, 877.286.6431 or 800.981.6652.

The Louisiana SPCA will close to the public today at 2 p.m. to prepare for the evacuation of shelter animals, SPCA spokeswoman Gloria Dauphin said. Transportation of owned animals to Baton Rouge will begin Thursday afternoon, and evacuation of all other animals to Texas will take place Friday and Saturday.

"We definitely don't want to wait until Saturday or Sunday to decide what to do, " said Ana Zorrilla, director of the Louisiana SPCA. "Our best course of action is to prepare in advance to allow enough time for a safe evacuation."

Sneed said the preliminary evacuation timeline is based on the expectation that tropical storm force winds will hit the Louisiana coastline Sunday about 4 p.m.

Counting backward from that target, Sneed said the state Department of Transportation and Development would activate charter bus contracts early Thursday. Amtrak trains already are stationed at the Union Passenger Terminal, he said.

RTA buses would begin shuttling residents from the pickup sites early Friday morning, with charter buses arriving in the city Friday about noon, he said.

Residents evacuating on their own would be asked to wait until mid-morning on Saturday, after the departure of residents from coastal areas, he said.

Officials monitor storm

Nagin, who is in Denver serving as a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, has stayed "up-to-date in real time" through e-mail and text message updates from Sneed and others, mayoral spokesman Terry Davis said.

Davis said Nagin is scheduled to return to New Orleans Thursday evening but could arrive sooner depending on Gustav's path.

Officials in Jefferson and St. Bernard parishes were monitoring the storm but had made no decisions about evacuations.

In St. Bernard, Parish President Craig Taffaro said the parish will ask representatives of the Corps of Engineers to accompany the parish on a drive-by of the levee-protection system to help identify any potential problem areas.

On Tuesday afternoon at the National Hurricane Center, forecasters were monitoring several computer models that had the storm tracking northwest across the Gulf toward the mouth of the Mississippi River at the end of five days and strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.

The storm was being steered to the west by an extension of a subtropical high-pressure system sitting over the Bahamas and Florida, while a lower pressure "weakness" extending from the Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf seemed to be drawing the storm forward.

Some unconcerned

Reactions to Gustav's threat are mixed among residents.

Timber Wolfe, 36, of Metairie, said he will evacuate if weather reports deem Gustav a Category 3 storm or higher. Until then, he is not worrying, he said.

"It's not the end of the world, " he said.

Lakeview resident Jeff Carcich, 26, said his father called to notify him about evacuation plans, but he is not too alarmed.

"I have faith in the parts of levees that were rebuilt, " Carcich said.

Others seemed more stressed.

"Everybody I know is talking about it, " said Pamela Alaimo, 34, a former New Orleans resident who recently moved to Metairie.

While shopping at Lowe's, Alaimo said she had been overhearing numerous conversations about Gustav. "Near the plants, I heard a mom telling her daughter, 'I don't know if I should get all this stuff, the hurricane is coming soon.' "

. . . . . . .

Staff writers Nicole Dungca, Robert Scott, Sheila Grissett and Bob Warren contributed to this report.

Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3327.

Sounds like they are taking it pretty seriously.  Let's see what develops as the storm enters the middle of the Gulf.

Looks like we've got a new storm headed our way.  TD Eight, soon to become Hurricane Hanna.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents)

Quote from: Traveller on August 28, 2008, 08:37:16 AM
Looks like we've got a new storm headed our way.  TD Eight, soon to become Hurricane Hanna.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?5day#contents)

if there is one thing I am confident of, it is that THIS storm will not come directly into us.  they never have and never will. gulf stream will take it north before it would hit us directly. 

every storm that does hit us has to wobble into us some strange way (and being careful to avoid the gulf stream currents).  hopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

Quotehopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

It looks like many of the models have it doing just that.

(https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_08.gif)

I agree but the local news media is going to eat this all up even after TD 8 turns a heads north.

These are the storms surfers live for.

This is not a joke.

A very reliable model, can't remember which one, actually brings Gustav into the Big Bend, and bringing Hanna west. Then they actually revolve around each other and slam into Florida at the same time. Now, as unlikely as this is, if it was to verify, this state would be done for.

I wonder what would happen if two storms converged?  Has that ever happened?

I believe they would tear each other apart. Can our resident meteorologist verify this?

Here's a FAQ from a kid's weather site hahaha:


"Has there ever been a case where two hurricanes come together and merged into one larger hurricane?
San Sebastian Sixth graders
Miami, Florida

No, it's actually impossible for two or more hurricanes to merge together. But if two hurricanes or tropical storms do come close together, they can interact with one another. Their close proximity may weaken one or both of the storms.  Or they may begin circling around each other.  This is called the Fujiwhara effect, named after a Japanese meteorologist who first explained the phenomenon.  In this case, the tropical cyclones begin to move around a center point between them.  It's sort of like two people on opposite sides of a tetherball pole each holding onto a ball and walking around the pole.  The resulting "dance" is an amazing thing to see on an animated weather satellite photograph!"

Edit:

An much more accurate article from a non-kid's weather site describing the Fujiwhara effect: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wfujiwha.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wfujiwha.htm)

Where's Mike Buresh or John Gaughn when we need them??  ;D

The only time I can think of this almost happening is 1995 season. Luis was a cat 3, almost a 4, then Marilyn went thru rapid deepening, and they actually started to fight each other. Marilyn won and started stealing Luis' strength, and also the vented air from Marilyn was ingested into Luis, causing him to stay as a cat3. They also changed direction somewhat, Marilyn continued west, as Luis was bumped NW. A few hours later, Marilyn did take a small SW jog, so this is as close to that happening as I've ever seen.

I miss Bob Allen on the old fox 30 news, he would comically stumble his words. But no weather girl will ever capture my heart like Betsy Kling. She gave me her beads on the skyway newyears 2002 after we asked her to sign our hurricane tracking chart. *sigh*

(http://www.wkyc.com/graphics/talent/0508kling150x200.jpg)

I love me some Betsy Kling!

Thanks for the info Reed.

Quote from: Traveller on August 28, 2008, 09:05:50 AM

Quotehopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

It looks like many of the models have it doing just that.

where?  every model i have seen only takes it as close to the US Coast as 600 miles and then stops - b/c too far out to predict.  i can find nothing where a model brings it into Jax.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

Quote from: Jason on August 28, 2008, 10:40:11 AM
I wonder what would happen if two storms converged?  Has that ever happened?

Yes, it happened once.  A while back.  Actually, THREE storms collided and it was catastrophic.  They called it...The Perfect Storm.

http://www.youtube.com/v/jmX3TK7U5K4&hl=en&fs=1

Of course, only one was a tropical system.

Has Hanna gone bananas? I've never seen a track like that...anybody?

Gustav is now a cat 3 expected to grow to a cat 4.

Quote from: Driven1 on August 28, 2008, 11:30:20 AM

Quote from: Traveller on August 28, 2008, 09:05:50 AM

Quotehopefully this one will not start wobbling down south and then stumble awkwardly into us from some weird angle.

It looks like many of the models have it doing just that.

where?  every model i have seen only takes it as close to the US Coast as 600 miles and then stops - b/c too far out to predict.  i can find nothing where a model brings it into Jax.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

(http://inlinethumb50.webshots.com/42545/2740675340103291680S500x500Q85.jpg)
(http://inlinethumb03.webshots.com/24898/2098397240103291680S425x425Q85.jpg)

TS Ike? Don't like the sound of that

QuoteYes, it happened once.  A while back.  Actually, THREE storms collided and it was catastrophic.  They called it...The Perfect Storm.

THE PERFECT STORM was more a collision of extreme strong fronts or pressure zones if I recall. Hot Wet low in the tropics - meets bone dry cool from the west which I think crashed into an artic zone decending. Of course that's just memory, but seems to me that was why it got no proper name, no proper warnings and hit along a front 1,000+ miles long. Floods in Florida, to blizards in the Carolina's, sunken boats off Maine. I don't think any part of it was hurricane caused.

Certainly no weather man, but the out flow or falling cooled air from storm one, would shear off the hot updrafts of storm two. It did happen with Donna or Dora, but it wasn't a merger, the shear kept the storm weaker then it would have been otherwise. If it hadn't we'd all be blogging from LAKE CITY!  

OCKLAWAHA
Resident old fart with a tale to tell...

Gustav is a TS, but, Hurricane Hanna looks like it is heading straight to N. FLorida, S. GA.  I am not sure if this one is projected to turn but right now...hanna has jax in the middle of its cross hairs.

I think we should all now refer to this storm as hurricane Hanna Montana

It just sounds funnier that way. 

:)

Man, Gustav is on its way out but Hannah Montana, Ike, and Josephine are all lined up.

Ike could be following a very similar path as Hannah Montana.

Quote from: gatorback on September 01, 2008, 11:00:14 PM
Gustav is a TS, but, Hurricane Hanna looks like it is heading straight to N. FLorida, S. GA.  I am not sure if this one is projected to turn but right now...hanna has jax in the middle of its cross hairs.

i called this one a while back...Gulf Stream will catch it and send it to our Carolina brethren.

This drunken storm is going to get much stronger with Gus out of the way. Next got to figure in the blooming high pressure off of Virginia, if it blooms too big, it will shove Hanna under it, maybe into us. If the next storm roars in too close, Hanna should weaken it somewhat with outflow... at least we can hope.

Time to head back to the Andes!

OCKLAWAHA

Re Hannah, I thought the latest I heard this morning said that she was likely to hit the Carolinas.

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W_sm2+gif/145314W_sm.gif)

(http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_08.gif)

It would be to funny if the T storm was named Tina for obvious reasons. Are there any other name combos you would like to see ?

Tina?  You lost me.

 ::)........Ike and Tina  ;D ;D

I wonder if they will announce any government or business closures for Friday.  I imagine the wind and storm surge from this storm should be significantly worse than Fay.  Rain wise though, we will probably avoid the long, sustained rainfall we saw with Fay.

That crazy Hanna Montana!  This should be an interesting week.


Gator, just think if we do indeed get a storm called Tina, the newscasters will be able to report that the storm surge is"rolling down the river".

Lol...

Quote from: adamh0903 on September 02, 2008, 04:57:01 PM
::)........Ike and Tina  ;D ;D

Heh, now I get it!  :)

I didn't want to repost theses, so here's the URL.  I googled...Offensive Hurricane names...LoL

http://www.halfbakery.com/idea/Offensive_20Hurricane_20Names

I was thinking JoJo as a name...as in get back JoJo...back to where you belong....
Also, I like "86 the Cat" after my doctor's cat name

QuoteHurricane LOL
Hurricane ROFL
Hurricane BRB

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UnaBubba, Aug 23 2004

Great names!

BRB would have been great for Fay.  I'm afraid ROFL would not like the name and become a killer category 6 to throw it back in our faces.  ;)

Well, who didn't predict Hanna Montana turning North, but Ike a cat 4. already?  I underestimated Ike strengthening so much and so quickly.

Since Gustav gas prices have started to come down, but with the possiblity that Ike will make it into the Florida straight, you want to bet gas prices will stop falling...maybe reverse trend?

Quote from: gatorback on September 03, 2008, 11:07:02 AM
Well, who didn't predict Hanna Montana turning North, but Ike a cat 4. already?  I underestimated Ike strengthening so much and so quickly.

Hopefully Ike doesn't pack quite the punch that its name suggests if/when it makes landfall.

Has anyone seen this site?

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

Great graphic on the storms.

Great.  Ike is heading straight to the GOF.   :-\

Yup.  Gas prices are headed back up now...I think this has been a pretty active season with 3 storms making US landfalls in the past 3 weeks.

Wow.  Ike is huge.  It is going to knock Texas out.   :o

Corpus Christi it is looking right now. Except, we could see a trend farther south, to agree with reliable model guidance. So, areas that got Dolly, may get the big daddy, Ike.

Yup. Texas is going to get the big one as some models showing an increase to a cat 4 ! Austin is in the middle of Ike.

Well we are at the height of the Atlantic hurricane season and what an active season it has been.  It is all down hill from here.  :(

It looks like this storm will be very disruptive to gasoline.  According to this mornings TU, many TX gasoline refineries will shut down for a few days, and wholesale prices for the gulf coast are already above $5.00/gallon.  According to Bloomberg.com, about 19% of US refining capacity is being shutdown before the storm hits.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asJVNMXFF4yc&refer=home  There are reports that gas station chains in various areas are asking people to not purchase more than 8-10 gallons at a time.  http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=wn&ned=us&nolr=1&q=gas+shortages+ike

Because of the size of the storm, forecasters are expecting the storm surge to be bad and to cover a large section of TX coastline.
The good news is that the storm winds are still only about 105 mph, so perhaps the inland effects will not be as bad as feared, and the gasoline refineries will come back online quickly.

 :o  Ike is so huge.  Austin is getting cloud bands from Ike and we're like over 400 hundreds of miles from the COC.  :o

Google's steet view of galveston, tx...I just don't see how with a 24 ft surge and 20 ft waves anything is going to be the same

images taken in Galveston, TX about 10 hours ago.

(http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2008/09/12/ba-usa-storm-ike_0499129101.jpg)

(http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2008/09/12/ba-storm-ike_0499127642.jpg)

(http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2008/09/12/ba-ike_texas_0499128845.jpg)

(http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2008/09/12/ba-aptopix_tropi_0499128826.jpg)

more photos here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?o=4&f=/n/a/2008/09/11/national/a103306D77.DTL

Doesn't look good for Galveston. What's with the fire?

Somebody's house.  I guess a transformer blew or something.

the worst case senario for sure

Its going to be bad, I'm in Mobile right now 400 miles away and they had to close the causeway due to flooding

more images:

(http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/600xPopupGalleryCoomerGalvestongdj.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/12994526/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/12996929/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/12997065/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/12997323/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13003353/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13003273/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13002843/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

(http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13003104/600xPopupGallery.jpg)

full set of images: http://www.chron.com/index.html

AP

The death toll from Ike rose to 28, but many of those were far to the north of the Gulf Coast as the storm slogged across the nation's midsection, leaving a trail of flooding and destruction. Glass-strewn Houston was placed under a weeklong curfew, and millions of people in the storm's path remained in the dark.


Rescuers said they had saved nearly 2,000 people from waterlogged streets and splintered houses by Sunday afternoon. Many had ignored evacuation orders and tried to ride out the storm. Now they were boarding buses for indefinite stays at shelters in San Antonio and Austin.

Anderson Cooper is such a pimp.

AP

Two days after Ike battered the Texas and Louisiana coasts before striking Houston, the death toll rose to 30 in eight states, many of them far to the north of the Gulf Coast as the storm slogged across the nation's midsection, leaving a trail of flooding.

A massive effort was under way across Texas to get food, water and ice to people who had no power. It could be weeks until the more than 2 million without power have their lights turned on again. Lines snaked for blocks down side streets at gas stations that had little fuel to pump, and thousands packed shelters looking for dry places to sleep.

"Quite frankly we are reaching a health crisis for the people who remain on the island," said Steve LeBlanc, the city manager in Galveston, where at least a third of the community's 60,000 residents remained in their homes.

If you want to help:

By Mail:

Make your check payable to "Capital Area Food Bank of Texas" and mail to:

Capital Area Food Bank of Texas
8201 South Congress Ave.
Austin, TX 78745

Please write your name, address and phone number on your check. 

By Phone:

You can phone in your donation. Call Cheryl Dunn-Smith, at 512.684.2103, to make a one-time gift.  You may also set up a recurring donation or installment donation by phone.

900,000 without power in Houston.

That's insane. 

Any mentions of looting?

Looting in Texas? Looting is a hanging offense in Texas.  Seriously, you'd have to be a real nutjob to be looting down there.

I found that if the damage estimates are accurate, that Ike will be the 3rd costliest US storm after Katrina and  Andrew.   :o

QuoteOblique aerial photography of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, on September 9, 2008 and September 15, 2008, two days after landfall of Hurricane Ike. Yellow arrows mark features that appear in each image. In addition to the loss of houses, the evidence of inundation here includes eroded dune face and sand deposited well inland of the shoreline.

(http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc1.jpg)


(http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc2.jpg)


(http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc3.jpg)


(http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc4.jpg)

Quote from: Lunican on September 16, 2008, 11:46:07 PM

QuoteOblique aerial photography of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, on September 9, 2008 and September 15, 2008, two days after landfall of Hurricane Ike. Yellow arrows mark features that appear in each image. In addition to the loss of houses, the evidence of inundation here includes eroded dune face and sand deposited well inland of the shoreline.

reports are that the authorities are close to declaring marshal law in this area to force out the people who never left, the authorities claim it is still very dangerous there and they don't want people to stay there

My view is that the homes left standing should be allowed to stay until they are destroyed in the next storm.  The rest should not be replaced and the area be allowed to return to beach and dunes...

$.02

2,000,000 w/o power in Ohio.  Death toll up to 48.

Quote from: BridgeTroll on September 17, 2008, 07:10:22 AM
My view is that the homes left standing should be allowed to stay until they are destroyed in the next storm.  The rest should not be replaced and the area be allowed to return to beach and dunes...

$.02

That land is way to valuable ie tax revenue to be just sand dont you think

Some 2.6 million people in Texas are having to make do without power after Hurricane Ike hit the Gulf Coast last Saturday. According to officials, only 700000 of them now have their electricity again.

Ike seriously has challenged my understanding of a Cat. 2 hurricane.  Even I never dreamed a 2 could do all that. 

Quote from: gatorback on September 17, 2008, 07:25:46 AM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on September 17, 2008, 07:10:22 AM
My view is that the homes left standing should be allowed to stay until they are destroyed in the next storm.  The rest should not be replaced and the area be allowed to return to beach and dunes...

$.02

That land is way to valuable ie tax revenue to be just sand dont you think

Considering what happened there in a Cat 2 hurricane... no.  If the tax revenue for the city is the issue the city should insure the new structures against hurricane and flood.

Wait.  Are you seriously suggestion that the city prevent land owners from developing their property because of a little wind and water damage? Lol. 

Quote from: gatorback on September 17, 2008, 12:09:46 PM
Wait.  Are you seriously suggestion that the city prevent land owners from developing their property because of a little wind and water damage? Lol. 

I am only referencing the area portrayed in the pictures provided by Lunican.

I don't think we should prevent building because of a 100 year storm.  I hear what you are saying...that we should'nt keep paying for water damage over and over again. 

Quote from: gatorback on September 17, 2008, 12:33:13 PM
I don't think we should prevent building because of a 100 year storm.  I hear what you are saying...that we should'nt keep paying for water damage over and over again. 

Well if GW is a coming threat and catastrophies like this drain federal and insurance resources we should begin abandoning these areas as they are wiped out.

Quote from: stephendare on September 17, 2008, 12:40:10 PM
Either that or take a holiday to the Netherlands for a crash course.

Netherlands has decided to fortify its coastline with dikes, dams, tidal control.  They really cannot afford to retreat inland as we can.  The barrier islands here in the states should not be redeveloped... perhaps they should shored up as barriers to future hurricanes...

Quote from: BridgeTroll on September 17, 2008, 12:49:10 PM

Quote from: stephendare on September 17, 2008, 12:40:10 PM
Either that or take a holiday to the Netherlands for a crash course.

Netherlands has decided to fortify its coastline with dikes, dams, tidal control.  They really cannot afford to retreat inland as we can.  The barrier islands here in the states should not be redeveloped... perhaps they should shored up as barriers to future hurricanes...

The barrier islands (before they were developed) were natural defenses against storm surge.

There are many... here are two links.  From Florida to Northward there are barrier islands... the Gulf coast is littered with them.  Unfortunately we have foolishly developed them.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2001/of01-303/island.html

http://www.livescience.com/environment/080912-barrier-islands.html

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLG_en___US227&q=east%20coast%20barrier%20islands&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl

Quote from: stephendare on September 17, 2008, 01:25:16 PM
wow tremendous insight.

How do the barrier islands protect against damage?

do you need a geology lesson too?

Do it apvguy

http://science.howstuffworks.com/barrier-island.htm

Barrier islands, sometimes called barrier spits, are found on coastlines all over the world, but are most noticeable along the eastern coast of North America, where they extend from New England down the Atlantic Coast, around the Gulf of Mexico and south to Mexico.

Barrier islands are long, narrow, offshore deposits of sand or sediments that parallel the coast line. Some barrier islands can extend for 100 miles (160 km) or more. The islands are separated from the main land by a shallow sound, bay or lagoon.

http://science.howstuffworks.com/barrier-island.htm

Definitely part of the problem.  To build those houses the dune structure is leveled or at least severely altered.  The dunes on these barrier islands are what protect the inland areas from the storm surge.  Areas along inlets are still subject to the surge, but the impacts ar far lass.  When the dunes are removed or leveled there is no protection left to prevent the ocean from easily overtaking the island and eventually the mainland (intracoastal) waterfront on the other side.

Quote from: civil42806 on September 17, 2008, 02:04:36 PM
http://science.howstuffworks.com/barrier-island.htm

Civil, you are an Allah send.

First and most difficult... we would have to have a consensus about removing the developments.  This could best be done by attrition.  As they are destroyed... they are simply not replaced.  Next a study as you suggested of techniques used by the Dutch who have mastered this kind of thing over the years.  One of the interesting side effects of this would be (could be) tidal power generation plants supplying electricity to the mainland while protecting it from storm surges etc...

Quote from: stephendare on September 17, 2008, 02:15:45 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on September 17, 2008, 02:09:26 PM
First and most difficult... we would have to have a consensus about removing the developments.  This could best be done by attrition.  As they are destroyed... they are simply not replaced.  Next a study as you suggested of techniques used by the Dutch who have mastered this kind of thing over the years.  One of the interesting side effects of this would be (could be) tidal power generation plants supplying electricity to the mainland while protecting it from storm surges etc...

brilliant, Bridge Troll.

How to start this process?  Its quite a political thing, I think.

We have discussed a similar idea (without the added tidal electricity plants), and I thought we would have to start with severely restricting the zoning to allow no further development or building permits to be issued.

Quite out of my league Im afraid... we cannot even decide on what to do with the homes being eroded into the ocean south of ponte vedra.  The folks of Galvaston would vehemently resist being told they cannot rebuild their houses(only to be destroyed again).  I told you the hard part would be the consensus thing... :)

Here is a Dutch site devoted to this type of thing...

http://www.deltawerken.com/en/10.html%3fsetlanguage=en

Quote from: stephendare on September 17, 2008, 02:27:00 PM
Its going to take leadership, as much as consensus.

Legislatively squashing the possibility of new development, and coupling that with buyout options would probably help a lot.

Of course, the land conservancy fund could be helping tremendously by snatching up the properties in foreclosure over the next few years.  There will be a lot of them.

Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_re_us/ike_beach_houses

Man, sad news for those that built there.  Should the government be responsible for bailing them out?  I don't think they should, but I'm also sitting pretty in a home built far from the ocean and will likely never see my home destroyed by storm surge.

Hell, half of Jacksonville or the state of Florida was either built on the coastline or on filled in wetlands.  Why should we be allowed to build where our homes could be consumed by floods, sink holes, hurricanes, or any other natural disaster?  True, the chances of a coastal home being destroyed and consumed by the ocean far exceeds the chances of a home being completely destroyed by a flood or sink hole.  At least a flooded home can be slavaged (typically).

I do agree that barrier islands are fantastic natural defences against storm surge and should not be developed.  But should those islands that already are developed be abandoned, or should we continue to throw money at them?

QuoteMan, sad news for those that built there.  Should the government be responsible for bailing them out?  I don't think they should, but I'm also sitting pretty in a home built far from the ocean and will likely never see my home destroyed by storm surge.

Hell, half of Jacksonville or the state of Florida was either built on the coastline or on filled in wetlands.  Why should we be allowed to build where our homes could be consumed by floods, sink holes, hurricanes, or any other natural disaster?  True, the chances of a coastal home being destroyed and consumed by the ocean far exceeds the chances of a home being completely destroyed by a flood or sink hole.  At least a flooded home can be slavaged (typically).

I do agree that barrier islands are fantastic natural defences against storm surge and should not be developed.  But should those islands that already are developed be abandoned, or should we continue to throw money at them?

It's a life long question, there are some homes on an island in Lake Monroe, near Enterprise/Deltona that are 6" off the surface of the lake. Any storm sends the water up well into the homes. Yet this is MILLION dollar properties! Not for me it isn't. Maybe we should offer a service to Yankees, "how not to buy a swamp". (but it's WAY more fun just to watch them sink!) I think most Floridians can tell that the presence of rocks, sand hills, sand pine, scrub oaks and mixed hardwoods , lots of sand, white or yellow...No standing water after a heavy rain - equals higher ground.

OF course the presence of venus fly traps, pitcher plants, slash, blackjack and yellow pine, heavy palmetto thickets, flat ground with ditches (standing water). Raised septic tank fields, "Nothing between me and the beach but sand..." slow drop-off into deep river channel, creeks that don't have any real flow to them.. This could all go in the book under places to "Watch Yankees sink".

If coastal residents can't rebuild because a storm took out the property or altered the shore line, then do Oklahoma-Texas-Kansas-Nebraska-Iowa-Missouri-Arkansas farmers abandon the property if it's hit by an F-2 +? What about an F-5?

Does Nebraska and Wyoming and Colorado give up development if Yellowstone blows it's volcanic top and covers everything in 2' of ash? What about Mono Lake, or Mammoth Lake California? What about Amboy?

If "The Palmdale buldge is not all San Andres Fault..." (smile) then whose fault is it? Do we abandon Los Angeles? Rebuild it in Tennessee or Kentucky? No, fact is an even bigger quake is waiting to wiggle everything from Chicago to Atlanta and Indiana to Texas into a great smoking heap. So will someone please tell me where we can build to escape all of these dangers - suck it up and DRIVE ON FOLKS!

OCKLAWAHA

I was/we were talking specifically about the barrier islands and their role in protecting the mainland... not lakes, swamps, volcanos, or fault lines.

Yeah you're right BT.  Didn't mean to swerve the thread.  My point (and I think Ock's as well) is that if those folks that lost their homes to the hurricane aren't allowed to rebuild where they sit (assuming the dirt is there) then why should anyone else be able to rebuild after their home is lost to any of the aformentioned natural disasters?

I don't think there is a single square foot of this planet that isn't subject to some sort of routine natural devestation.  Its just the way it is.  So maybe these folks should be able to rebuild, but IMO, without any help from the feds.

My original point was that development on those barrier islands reduces their effectiveness in protecting the coastline on the mainland.  In addition these islands could be reinforced to provide even greater protection against storm surge and could concievably be used for electric power generation via tidal power plants.

And I agree with you wholeheartedly. :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power

I wonder what ocean currents could to for us?  The Gulf stream isn't that far away, expecially in South Florida.

You guys and this hurricane season sure has challenged my understanding of the storm process.  As far as rebuilding I would have to look at a couple of things that govern situations like this including local laws and what a  reasonable person would do.   Those  local laws in Texas look pretty cut and dry and seem reasonable. Then there is the The reasonableness rule. If some guy in Ponte Vedra moved a sand done and water flooded your house, you'd have a good case.  There are two other rules regarding flooding, The "common enemy" rule, and the  The "civil law" rule.  So I now feel if you build on those areas and don't take action to protect your property or your neighbors you could cause a lot of problems and be liable.

QuoteI was/we were talking specifically about the barrier islands and their role in protecting the mainland... not lakes, swamps, volcanos, or fault lines.

My point too, frankly laid bare in the next post or two. If we are going to ding Texans for their homes and land in a natural disaster area, then what of Florida? Oklahoma? California? and other sitting ducks? We all have some sort of loaded gun pointed at our head by the clock of mother nature. I just don't see the benefit in chasing the people and the $$ away. So sorry, didn't know I wasn't allowed to play here.

I remember back about 20-30 years ago, some hurricane cut a new channel right across these islands? or perhaps it was a peninsular? Anyway, what had once been land, was now very deep water and an inlet to the sea. Certainly you couldn't rebuild on that ground. A survey would have found it to be sea bottom.

Barrier Islands are also found off the Coast of California, some are natural and others are man-made. Both types are either shpping terminals or oil refinerys/wells/storage. Solar energy, wind energy or even drill rigs could go in and boost the islands overall bulk.

QuoteClose to the California mainland, yet worlds apart, Channel Islands National Park encompasses five remarkable islands (Anacapa, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, San Miguel, and Santa Barbara) and their ocean environment, preserving and protecting a wealth of natural and cultural resources. Isolation over thousands of years has created unique animals, plants, and archeological resources found nowhere else on Earth and helped preserve a place where visitors can experience coastal southern California as it once was.

Doesn't matter where they are, or who put them in place, doesn't even matter what kind of disaster overtakes them, the question remains the same, does this give big government the right to seize land, homes etc?

OCKLAWAHA

Quote
Doesn't matter where they are, or who put them in place, doesn't even matter what kind of disaster overtakes them, the question remains the same, does this give big government the right to seize land, homes etc?

I think the key word there is *land*.  I think it's wet sand at least every 8 hours or so and from what they are thinking, it is going to sand for a very long time.  Should we let people build in an unsafe area?  Should we send out the troops everytime Peter, Paul and Mary want to spark on up some magestic night at a party house in the ocean when the tide rises?

Quote from: Ocklawaha on September 19, 2008, 03:09:33 PM

QuoteI was/we were talking specifically about the barrier islands and their role in protecting the mainland... not lakes, swamps, volcanos, or fault lines.

My point too, frankly laid bare in the next post or two. If we are going to ding Texans for their homes and land in a natural disaster area, then what of Florida? Oklahoma? California? and other sitting ducks? We all have some sort of loaded gun pointed at our head by the clock of mother nature. I just don't see the benefit in chasing the people and the $$ away. So sorry, didn't know I wasn't allowed to play here.

I remember back about 20-30 years ago, some hurricane cut a new channel right across these islands? or perhaps it was a peninsular? Anyway, what had once been land, was now very deep water and an inlet to the sea. Certainly you couldn't rebuild on that ground. A survey would have found it to be sea bottom.

Barrier Islands are also found off the Coast of California, some are natural and others are man-made. Both types are either shpping terminals or oil refinerys/wells/storage. Solar energy, wind energy or even drill rigs could go in and boost the islands overall bulk.

QuoteClose to the California mainland, yet worlds apart, Channel Islands National Park encompasses five remarkable islands (Anacapa, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, San Miguel, and Santa Barbara) and their ocean environment, preserving and protecting a wealth of natural and cultural resources. Isolation over thousands of years has created unique animals, plants, and archeological resources found nowhere else on Earth and helped preserve a place where visitors can experience coastal southern California as it once was.

Doesn't matter where they are, or who put them in place, doesn't even matter what kind of disaster overtakes them, the question remains the same, does this give big government the right to seize land, homes etc?

OCKLAWAHA

Your point illustrates my doubt that anything will change... the hardest part is consensus... and we will never get it.  The Dutch act as one because they are all threatened by the sea.  We will let em rebuild, await the next hurricane, ad infinitum.... until they are washed away forever and the sea takes aim at the mainland... ces't la vie... blahblahblah

We've got waves!  Off the coast of africa a wave has rolled off.  Then around the Antilles so keep an eye out ;)

TS Kyle just formed.  I don't have the specifics but look like Kyle could become a nasty hurricane before making a US landfall.

It'll bring strong nor'easter conditions to New England at most, at current projections. While the low off the Carolina Coast continues high waves and higher tides. The St. Johns will continue with higher than normal tides for many weeks due to the river still flowing Fay's water, but in addition to the new moon, and this northeasterly wind fetch as well.

Has the river crested anywhere?

Quote from: Jason on September 26, 2008, 09:06:24 AM
Has the river crested anywhere?

It crested several weeks ago, but it takes so long for this "river" to drain. With this wind fetch, the river is backing up again, and spilling it's banks.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* HYDROLOGIC ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN...
  NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORANGE PARK...LAKESIDE...
  EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MAYPORT...MANDARIN...DOWNTOWN
  JACKSONVILLE...ARLINGTON...
  WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
  EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALATKA...EAST PALATKA...
  WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
  EXTREME EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT TODAY

THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW FROM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT HAS RESULTED IN BACKING
OCEAN WATER INTO THE RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ASTOR IS LIKELY TO BE
NEAR MODERATE FLOODING TODAY. OTHER GAGES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW RIVER LEVELS ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WEST TODAY AND SOUTHERLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...THUS BACKWATER FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
WILL SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF THE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS SEVERAL DAYS.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO DOCTORS LAKE...PALATKA AND GEORGETOWN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL FEET OF RIVER FLOODING AND OBSERVE
SOME SUBMERGED DOCKS THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.
RESIDENTS MAY WISH TO MOVE UNSECURED OBJECTS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS TO
HIGHER GROUND.

Subtropical Storm Laura?  What the heck is Laura going to be doing to the waters of the St. Johns River? Anything?

Laura is WAY WAY out there.  Don't think it will have much of an effect.

Kyle in Canada?   :o  When was the last time that happened?  Has it ever happened?

Quote from: gatorback on September 29, 2008, 04:50:59 PM
Kyle in Canada?   :o  When was the last time that happened?  Has it ever happened?

yes it has happened before, it is unusual but it's not unprecedented

Laura is east of Nova Scotia and is riding the Gulf Stream to Ireland and Britain, it seems. 

Atlantic is pretty quiet otherwise.  Wonder if we'll get any more...

Big ol mass over the islands West of Africa, might form up into something. This could be a killer late season storm, or maybe just fade into a blip on the radar. NWS is watching it with consternation.  

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: Doctor_K on October 01, 2008, 11:55:39 AM
Laura is east of Nova Scotia ...

Nova Scotia?  Let me see.  Isn't Nova Scotia near the artic circle?  How often do TS, ST, or Hurricanes hit the artic or near artic cirle?

Gatorback, seems to me they get something most of the time... Not the full heat fed mess we get, but the remains which get over the cold ocean water, then release fantastic seas, and very heavy rains. Thus the term "Graveyard of the Atlantic".  

QuoteAutumn weather is baffling â€" do you dress for summer or wrap up warm for winter? This weekend temperatures topped 20C (68F) in glorious sunshine and it was difficult to believe that this was late September. But today everything is changing as a depression moves in and lashes Britain with rain and cold winds from the Arctic.

The weather is even more confusing in Canada, where Hurricane Kyle struck Nova Scotia and New Brunswick yesterday. Though hurricanes rarely vent their full fury on Canada, the eastern region can suffer tropical storms as they sweep up from the south. The storms usually exhaust their energy in the cooler northern waters, but they can still unleash huge amounts of rain and violent winds.

The most destructive tropical storm in Canadian history was Hurricane Hazel in October 1954. It carved a devastating path through the Caribbean, North Carolina and northwards towards the Great Lakes. Because the storm sped rapidly overland it managed to keep its hurricane strength. Canadian weather forecasters underestimated the storm when it struck on the night of October 15. It tore through the heart of Toronto with 124km/h (77mph) winds and about 210mm (8.27in) of rain, washing away entire streets in wild, rushing waters. Houses were ripped from their foundations, 20 bridges were destroyed and 81 people were killed. The damage cost about $1 billion in today’s money.

Toronto is now a far larger city and a similar storm today would be catastrophic. But as a result of Hazel, parts of Toronto’s floodplain were turned over to parkland to help to control future floods.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: gatorback on October 01, 2008, 01:10:07 PM

Quote from: Doctor_K on October 01, 2008, 11:55:39 AM
Laura is east of Nova Scotia ...

Nova Scotia?  Let me see.  Isn't Nova Scotia near the artic circle?  How often do TS, ST, or Hurricanes hit the artic or near artic cirle?

Allow me to correct myself:  It's actually *east-northeast* of Nova Scotia and more east of Labrador/Newfoundland, according to the latest graphic on stormpulse.com.  Just so I wouldn't look like a complete dolt, I checked it out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newfoundland_and_Labrador (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newfoundland_and_Labrador)

Quote
The north-south extent of the province (46°36'N to 60°22'N),...

The Arctic Circle runs at the 66th and 1/3rd parallel North.  So technically, yes, it's near the Arctic Circle.  

I think that's where quite a few storms end up once they lose their strength and 'tropical' characteristics, as Ock mentioned.  Full fledged tropical or subtropicals storms?  Not very often but not unheard of.

TS Nana formed.  Up to N...I think this season is pretty active.

Hurricane Omar and TD 16. Wow these things are developing faster then I can keep up!

Its been a pretty active season.

The body of clouds that formed near the verde islands is huuge..

october 15 is Hurricane Thanksgiving Day for the Virgin Islands ...anybody here ever celebrate that day?

Wow.  And so late in the season:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED.  THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I noticed that on the news this morning.  A storm this late in the season is pretty rare.

Its officially TD17

The trough should kick it out over Cuba towards the Atlantic.
Models are split though, so we shall see.

Many models agree with a max category 2 hurricane. Though some are generous, and spin it up to cat.3. Future Paloma's track is dependent on how strong this system currently firing severe wx in OK and KS is and how deep it digs into the GOMEX.

Looks like Cuba get Paloma this round.

Most models have the trough digging down enough to turn Paloma into Cuba and no further north.
Unfortunately, most models show a Cat2-3 storm hitting Cuba.

This was Cuba's year of hurricanes.

Sure is.  Sounds reminiscent of the '05 Florida season.

Tropical Storm PALOMA is for real?  So late.  Wow.  What a year.

Hurricane Paloma is a cat 3???

She roared ashore as a 145mph category 4! The place where she came ashore in Cuba, on the same date in 1932, had a cat. 4 or higher kill over 3,200. Irony, this is Cuba's version of our 2004. The hits just kept coming.

Man, they really got pummeled this year.  Maybe Mother Nature was trying to rid Cuba of Castro?

The big question is:  Is the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season over now?

It should  be seen with  caution that the old Hippie song - UNA PALOMA BLANCA - was writen by a Jacksonville man.

OCKLAWAHA

Quote from: Jason on November 10, 2008, 08:35:04 AM
Man, they really got pummeled this year.  Maybe Mother Nature was trying to rid Cuba of Castro?

Ha, yes, since Father Time isn't really performing his job well... ;)

Ha. I'm thinking the TD around Cuba is going to die making this the last official day of activity of the season.  Unless, of course global climate change has something else in mind for us. Could be.

This pretty much sums up what we've been following all season.

Tim Brown
Reuters

The Colorado State University experts, whose forecasts are followed closely in energy and commodity markets, had originally predicted 13 tropical storms in the 2008 season and said seven would strengthen into hurricanes.

In a revised forecast in August, however, it said it expected a total of 17 tropical storms with nine strengthening into hurricanes.

The season, which ended on November 30, turned out to be one of the most active on record and produced 16 tropical storms, eight of which became hurricanes. It spawned a record number of consecutive storms that struck the United States, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Five of the 2008 hurricanes were "major" at Category 3 strength or higher, according to NOAA.

The season tested the New Orleans levees rebuilt after Hurricane Katrina, hammered the Texas oilpatch and killed 800 people in Haiti.

A record of three major hurricanes tore into Cuba during the 2008 season, causing an estimated $10 billion in damage on the communist-ruled island as they destroyed or damaged nearly half a million homes and flattened sugar cane and tobacco fields.

The Colorado State hurricane research team said its forecast for the 2009 season was based on factors including warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures that create favorable conditions for cyclones.

"We are currently in an active period for Atlantic hurricane activity," Gray said in a statement.

"This active cycle in the Atlantic basin is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period."

Ergo:
Let "heightened Atlantic basin hurricane activity" = a
Let "(cyclical) active period for hurricane activity" = b
Let "global warming theory" = c

If active hurricane seasons are cyclical, yet active hurricane seasons are caused by global warming, would it not be stated then that global warming is cyclical?  (or if a=b and b=c, then a=c)

:D

Of course not, Doctor K. Because of man and his eeeeeevil ways against "mother nature"...

we.........are going............to die!!!!!!!!

It will be a slow death.  It will come by water.  Then fire.  Trust me. Run.