QuoteCity Council President Bill Gulliford isn't ready to disclose his next appointment to the Downtown Investment Authority, but he'll tell you exactly the type of person he's looking for: "An action person," who isn't afraid to shake things up.
"Sometimes people who get things done step on toes, and that's fine," Gulliford said Monday. "I just want to see some activity. We created this thing to see some action."
Gulliford said he'd be ready to announce his appointment within the next week, who will replace Vice Chairman Jim Bailey, who resigned in mid-September.
full article: http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2013/11/04/gulliford-to-downtown-authority-cut.html
There is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run. In which case, I imagine he's going to be watching DIA for results like a hawk. Though I guess you can say that about whoever is planning to challenge Brown. Without tangible results by the DIA by next election, he's toast.
That's a very Gulliford way to put things.
I like it.
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 09:53:26 AM
There is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run. In which case, I imagine he's going to be watching DIA for results like a hawk. Though I guess you can say that about whoever is planning to challenge Brown. Without tangible results by the DIA by next election, he's toast.
I hear that Gulliford won't be running because of his age and also his business is suffering without him.
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 09:53:26 AM
There is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run. In which case, I imagine he's going to be watching DIA for results like a hawk. Though I guess you can say that about whoever is planning to challenge Brown. Without tangible results by the DIA by next election, he's toast.
Brown is far from toast. If the city gets its usually 20-30% turnout and Northwest Jacksonville turns out in droves again Brown will likely get a 2nd term.
Quote from: FSBA on November 05, 2013, 01:20:40 PM
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 09:53:26 AM
There is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run. In which case, I imagine he's going to be watching DIA for results like a hawk. Though I guess you can say that about whoever is planning to challenge Brown. Without tangible results by the DIA by next election, he's toast.
Brown is far from toast. If the city gets its usually 20-30% turnout and Northwest Jacksonville turns out in droves again Brown will likely get a 2nd term.
Its pretty widely accepted/known that Brown won the runoff with Hogan because he had the support of practically every white person in Jax that cares about downtown. Riverside/Avondale, Ortega, San Marco, St. Nicholas, Mirimar, and other similar neighborhoods won't be so kind if he can't get anything accomplished DT.
Quote from: FSBA on November 05, 2013, 01:20:40 PM
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 09:53:26 AM
There is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run. In which case, I imagine he's going to be watching DIA for results like a hawk. Though I guess you can say that about whoever is planning to challenge Brown. Without tangible results by the DIA by next election, he's toast.
Brown is far from toast. If the city gets its usually 20-30% turnout and Northwest Jacksonville turns out in droves again Brown will likely get a 2nd term.
Assuming he is running against another incredibly horrible candidate.
QuoteIts pretty widely accepted/known that Brown won the runoff with Hogan because he had the support of practically every white person in Jax that cares about downtown
Want to know why Brown really won? B/c Hogan voters didnt turn out. Brown actually received about the same amount of votes that Nat Glover did when he ran for mayor... only difference, Hogan got about 30% less votes than John Peyton did. People didn't swing Alvin Brown's way in any signifigant sense, they just stayed at home and didnt vote for Mike Hogan.
Ignore the trumped up approval ratings. Brown is pretty beatable.
QuoteThere is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run.
He won't.
Regarding Gulliford's sentiments about DIA:
Quote"An action person," who isn't afraid to shake things up.
He's right.
Quote from: fieldafm on November 05, 2013, 01:39:16 PM
QuoteIts pretty widely accepted/known that Brown won the runoff with Hogan because he had the support of practically every white person in Jax that cares about downtown
Want to know why Brown really won? B/c Hogan voters didnt turn out. Brown actually received about the same amount of votes that Nat Glover did when he ran for mayor... only difference, Hogan got about 30% less votes than John Peyton did. People didn't swing Alvin Brown's way in any signifigant sense, they just stayed at home and didnt vote for Mike Hogan.
Brown may have received the same amount of votes as Glover, but that doesn't mean the each received the same amount of votes from African Americans. A substantial amount of white Moran supporters (mostly in town neighborhood people) backed Brown over Hogan, and that is what ultimately won the election in my estimation, along with moderate republicans staying home. Neither of those two things will happen again if Brown can't get it together.
I don't think Guilliford will run, but I think he'll end up being the attack dog for whoever does.
Quote from: fieldafm on November 05, 2013, 01:39:16 PM
QuoteIts pretty widely accepted/known that Brown won the runoff with Hogan because he had the support of practically every white person in Jax that cares about downtown
Want to know why Brown really won? B/c Hogan voters didnt turn out. Brown actually received about the same amount of votes that Nat Glover did when he ran for mayor... only difference, Hogan got about 30% less votes than John Peyton did. People didn't swing Alvin Brown's way in any signifigant sense, they just stayed at home and didnt vote for Mike Hogan.
Ignore the trumped up approval ratings. Brown is pretty beatable.
QuoteThere is some speculation that Gulliford is posturing for a mayoral run.
He won't.
Regarding Gulliford's sentiments about DIA:
Quote"An action person," who isn't afraid to shake things up.
He's right.
You are bang on with this statement Mike and this is indeed what threw the election Brown's way. The Republican party thought they had this election and as a result folks who normally would have come out to vote didn't bother thinking this was a done deal. CityLife, while some of Moran's votes went to Brown it was not enough to force the win. It was Hogan's Republican supporters not getting to the polls and both the Hogan camp and Republican party know this is what happened.
Enough votes must have swung over to allow an unknown candidate to get as many votes as a well known and respected sheriff had gotten 8 years before. Though of course plenty more just stayed home or wrote in "Audrey" or "Rick" in desperation.
Quote from: Tacachale on November 05, 2013, 03:29:15 PM
Enough votes must have swung over to allow an unknown candidate to get as many votes as a well known and respected sheriff had gotten 8 years before. Though of course plenty more just stayed home or wrote in "Audrey" or "Rick" in desperation.
I seem to remember that Alvin didn't get nearly the support that Glover did from the African-American community, so you're right, enough must have swung over. Anyone have the hard data from the election?
Alvin Brown (DEM) 50.43% 97,307 votes
Mike Hogan (REP) 49.57% 95,645 votes
Nat Glover (DEM) 42.00% 96,714 votes
John Peyton (REP) 58.00% 133,554 votes
In 2011 Alvin Brown picked up exactly 593 votes (a statistical non-event) more than Nat Glover in 2004.
37,316 less people came out to vote for Mike Hogan over John Peyton.
I meant stats like voter turnout by geography and race. I think the TU has it, but its behind a firewall.
Field you are assuming that Peyton=Hogan and Glover=Brown. I know quite a few people that voted for both Peyton and Brown. So I don't think you can analyze the two elections the same way. Hypothetically 20,000 less African Americans could have turned out to vote for Brown than did for Glover, while Brown could have made his gains on some who voted for Peyton.
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 03:52:05 PM
No like the voter turnout by georgraphy and race. I think the TU has it, but its behind a firewall.
It doesn't matter if those 37,316 people were white, black, brown, pink or purple.
At the time, I thought that Brown was making a mistake only going after his base. Turns out the only mistake made, was that Hogan didnt do nearly enough to encourage his base to go out and vote.
That's the story of the 2011 election.
Quote from: fieldafm on November 05, 2013, 03:55:21 PM
Quote from: CityLife on November 05, 2013, 03:52:05 PM
No like the voter turnout by georgraphy and race. I think the TU has it, but its behind a firewall.
It doesn't matter if those 37,316 people were white, black, brown, pink or purple.
At the time, I thought that Brown was making a mistake only going after his base. Turns out the only mistake made, was that Hogan didnt do nearly enough to encourage his base to go out and vote.
That's the story of the 2011 election.
It does in the context of how this discussion started. Another poster said that Brown only won because of the African American vote of the NW side. I don't believe that to be true (though he likely did get a significant vote there).
Brown definitely didn't only go after his base. He appealed heavily to the white populations in the in town neighborhoods and to those that care about downtown. Quite a few republican MJ posters voted for Brown over Hogan that normally wouldn't and I personally know about 20 or so that did as well.
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,12242.660.html
I suspect he won't get nearly as many of these voters, unless another Hogan comes along.
The numbers don't lie.
The oft told narrative about Alvin Brown's ascent into power, does.
Quote from: fieldafm on November 05, 2013, 04:48:03 PM
The numbers don't lie.
The oft told narrative about Alvin Brown's ascent into power, does.
What numbers? We haven't even seen how many Republicans and Democrats turned out and who they voted for in the thread.
You would have to get those numbers from the SOE's office CityLife. In the end remember that this race was on the surface a non partisan race. Underneath that however there is always a push on the part of the two major parties to get a member representing their party into office. In recent years the Republicans have managed to put most of their folks into the office of Mayor. Initial polling always had Hogan way out in front and that led to a bit too much comfort in his ability to win. When Mike talks the numbers he is speaking to the known numbers that reflect party voting patterns as determined over past elections regardless of who was running for office. Those numbers are updated for candidates and campaigns via the polling organizations they employ. The Black community is almost exclusively Democrat so they will support Dem candidates when they come out to vote and they will come out very strong in support of a Black candidate and will almost always vote Dem.