Full article here:
http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=532799
Quote
Jacksonville outlook: Jerry Mallot
Executive vice president, Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce
President, Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
As Mallot offered his top 10, he also asked Johnson to join the chamber’s headquarters recruitment team, adding that such efforts also will need help from the state and that Jacksonville needs greater nonstop air service.
Mallot presented his top 10 predictions for the decade in reverse order.
10. Scott will be the most aggressive governor in job creation since Bush. “We’ve hit rock bottom and we’ve got to turn it around.â€
9. The unemployment rate will drop below 5 percent by 2016 and it will be below 10 percent by December this year. “By 2016 we’re going to have a tight workforce and by 2018 we will be recruiting people,†he said.
8. A nuclear career will be located at Mayport Naval Station by 2020.
7. The financial services, professional and business services, logistics and medical services industries will lead employment growth. “You are going to see a booming economy in Northeast Florida in the next 12 months.†Jacksonville’s Real Gross Metro Product will soon match the peak it reached in the middle of the past decade and continue to rise, according to a University of Central Florida report.
6. Construction and real estate will boom by 2017. Also, office employees are increasingly telecommuting. “Ten to 30 percent who were in offices are working from home,†he said.
5. The Alliance Florida Center at Cecil Commerce Center will be a booming business park with more than 5 million square feet of space and other industrial parks will also be successful.
4. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who were announced in 1993 and began playing in 1995, will still be in Jacksonville and will have won a Super Bowl. Mallot said that’s what owner Wayne Weaver wants.
3. By 2020, Downtown will be the place for business and housing. “We have enormous commitment to redevelop Downtown,†he said. “It’s going to take real investment from the private sector and partnership with the public sector.â€
2. The port of Jacksonville will be dredged to 48 feet.
And his No. 1 prediction?
“The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl in 2011.â€
Guys, what do you think about his list?
Can we say horrible timetable, weak outlook, nothing new, and slightly stupid? He sounds excited about having a routine NE FL economy by 2020. He thinks the entire river's shipping channel will be dredged to to 48 ft.! 5 million SF of space in Cecil Commerce Center? I'll see it when I believe it. Up to 30% of people working from home? Eh, I'd say 10-15% max. New carrier by 2020? I believe that will happen, but I'll be starting to have grey hairs by then! That doesn't inspire much confidence.
11. Pink Unicorns will fly here from Venus and give us unlimited pollution free power!
Quote from: simms3 on January 26, 2011, 07:31:14 PM
Up to 30% of people working from home? Eh, I'd say 10-15% max.
Considering Obama signed into law the Federal Telecommuting Initiative that will push US Government Agencies to offer telecommuting to its employees, there will be 10-15% of the workforce right there.
Over 30 million full time employees work from home at least once per month. That will continue to grow.
The one myth that holds back telecommuting, that employees will not be as effective working from home, is being kicked to the curb.
Amex, Cisco, Sun, AT&T, JD Edwards, those are just a few of the companies that have found that telecommuting employees are more productive than traditional employees. Cisco found that the time that workers normally commuted was paid back in time spent on work. 60% of the normal commute time was given back to the company in work.
With all of the green initiative and anti pollution push, telecommuting will take a frontline stand with that. There is less fossil fuel burning working from home than there is to commute everyday.
Good Heavens! I think I hurt myself laughing! Bet he whistles happy tunes when he walks past a graveyard, too.
Considering Cecil eats up nearly half of the Westside, 5 million square feet of warehouse space isn't much over a decade long period. Heck, there has to be at least 2 million now. Bridgestone, alone covers 1 million. In addition, I'd place my money on the local economy not being in a boom cycle by this time next year.
I also don't think downtown will be "the place" for business and housing by 2020 or ever again, especially if there's going to be a dramatic rise in telecommuting. That doesn't mean it can't be a vibrant urban mixed-use district. It's just going to have to evolve into a new creature that doesn't over rely on office jobs that are quickly disappearing.
Quote from: Dog Walker on January 27, 2011, 10:20:36 AM
Good Heavens! I think I hurt myself laughing! Bet he whistles happy tunes when he walks past a graveyard, too.
I don't think all of his tunes are so happy. Most of his timetable is like a decade away. That's encouraging! ::)
Also, Lake I can agree with you, but I'm at a wait and see with this new master developer of Cecil. There are soooo many issues to work out at Cecil, first, and I just think that most of our industrial will continue to go to the more traditional parks. I also agree that downtown may never be that office hub for Jacksonville again, but not because of more people working from home or telecommuting or taking non-traditional jobs.
Stephen and Jandar, working from home and telecommuting are trends that everyone is studying right now. Some people (like you guys and plenty more) think it will be absolutely huge. Some people (like me and also a ton of people involved in RE formally studying it) think it will be more involved than it is today, but will never take the place of the communal workplace. I know a few grad students that are part of a project that has 30 companies as clients in New York to figure out how to evolve/update the workplace and use less space, but it's been widely agreed among at least these 30 that they (major companies from Amex to Merrill Lynch) are not going to send most of their employees home to work.
Actually Stephen, I am out of school and for my own interests I took planning classes, but I was finance/accounting and I work in RE. I don't see how I insulted your uber intelligence when I said there's a ton of people who feel your same way, but there's a ton of people ALSO in the field who still feel differently. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who ends up being right.
Too complicated to get into. Most people don't even realize the kind of liability one takes on by inviting business guests to their own home. That's just one little thing.
In addition, RE holdings are also investment tools for just about any company. The only entity I can think of that does not view RE as any sort of investment vehicle is the FDIC.
People still have to meet with each other. If you work from home, you are probably having people over for business purposes at some point. But like I said, that's not why imo traditional offices/business districts will remain the predominant place of business.
Quote from: simms3 on January 27, 2011, 11:39:30 AM
Too complicated to get into. Most people don't even realize the kind of liability one takes on by inviting business guests to their own home. That's just one little thing.
In addition, RE holdings are also investment tools for just about any company. The only entity I can think of that does not view RE as any sort of investment vehicle is the FDIC.
Just to raise a point: Wouldn't the majority of professionals that invite 'business' guests into their homes are the same professionals that would have a dedicated office - typically with it's own entrance. Lawyers, doctors, architects - all of these come to mind, and all of these types of people are also heads of their own personal corporations in most cases, and are required to carry commercial liablitiy which would insure a guest if they were injured on the property. Also since they are more than likely an S-corp or the like (def. not an llc), their assets outside of the business wouldn't be tied to them, therefore their house wouldn't be in danger if someone tripped coming up the walkway.
My other point was that your typical software engineer that tele-commutes isn't going to be inviting people over. They'll make the trek to the office if they need to be physically face to face with someone.
Quote from: stephendare on January 27, 2011, 11:30:22 AM
For point of reference, neither Lake nor Steve share my point of view about the matter, nor did Lunican initially, although he may have had reason to change his mind on the subject.
My view still is the same in that it really depends on the type of position you're working in. With the need to collaborate with others, lay out large documents, etc. I don't see the majority of those employeed in architectural, engineering and planning related fields telecommuting anytime soon and especially not by 2020.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 11:52:42 AM
My view still is the same in that it really depends on the type of position you're working in. With the need to collaborate with others, lay out large documents, etc. I don't see the majority of those employeed in architectural, engineering and planning related fields telecommuting anytime soon and especially not by 2020.
How many times a day do you already mark-up a set of drawings and e-mail them across the street?
Quote from: stephendare on January 27, 2011, 11:46:59 AM
Quote from: simms3 on January 27, 2011, 11:44:16 AM
People still have to meet with each other. If you work from home, you are probably having people over for business purposes at some point. But like I said, that's not why imo traditional offices/business districts will remain the predominant place of business.
None of the people I mentioned in my personal life ever have business meetings of any kind at their homes. I can foresee things working like they do in Athens, Greece.
No one meets at offices. Instead almost all business meetings of any import are held in hotel restaurants and lobbies.
I am interested in your train of thought though.
I get your point about face to face interaction.
We still meet in offices. I have a few scheduled next week. When I worked out of my condo, I would meet people at a Panera, Starbucks or at their office. Office space won't be going away. However, it will shrink and envolve into a new product.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 27, 2011, 11:55:23 AM
How many times a day do you already mark-up a set of drawings and e-mail them across the street?
I'm in transportation planning now. I conduct presentations moreso than send emails. When I worked in architecture, not much was emailed out. However, my desk was full of 30"x42" design and construction documents for various projects. We routinely collaborated with our team of co-workers and architects to ensure that projects were throughly vetted from a variety of professional resources and concepts. Completed sets of construction documents have to be printed large scale for permitting and most clients/contractors don't have plotters, so emailing final deliverables were not ideal. Since we also developed graphics, we had/needed space to print and prepare large scale finished products.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:08:34 PM
Now, not too often. I'm in transportation planning now. When I worked in architecture, not much was emailed out. However, my desk was full of 30"x42" design and construction documents for various projects. We routinely collaborated with our team of co-workers and architects to ensure that projects were throughly vetted from a variety of professional resources and concepts. Since we also developed graphics, we had/needed space to print and prepare large scale finished products.
Well I suppose a lot has changed or maybe it's the difference of my involvement in the planning. I just finished a project with CDH - Atlanta, and while working on the design details, I met with their architect 1 time - face to face. The rest of the times our ideas were sketched, sent, reviewed and approved. Most of the time it was just the two of us, but there were multiple occasions that we would have to do a conference call with her supervisor, the church-board and the GC - all the while information was passing via the interweb. I did most of it at my offce, but there were plenty of times that I was working from the house - it didn't matter beacuse I still had access to everything needed.
Quote from: stephendare on January 27, 2011, 12:11:11 PM
But isnt that partially because your drawings and plans were also used directly by contractors who were working in the field?
With the age of tablets upon us, isnt it possible that will drastically change?
I don't believe that it will happen in the near future (5-10 yrs.) due to the fact that unfortunately all of the vetting and reviewing that we do is all just a fancy way of saying CYOA. If a detail is missed that costs someone $100, you need to keep track of who, why & how becasue that little insignificant detail was just repeated 25 times on 40 floors (aka a $100,000 mistake for those of you keeping score). Without a paper trail, you would never know who's mistake it actually is.
It's much easier to take and carry and work with a paper set of CDs on a construction site or in meetings with multiple people than with a tablet or investing in a personal tablet for every individual. Permit sets go to multiple locations and you can always print more when needed. The age of tablets may be upon us but that's going to take significant investment in multiple fields to change industries that are interrealted. If I ever get back into architecture, I'll have to let you shadow me in the office one day. Everything we do and get involved with can't be consolidated to tablets.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 27, 2011, 12:15:15 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:08:34 PM
Now, not too often. I'm in transportation planning now. When I worked in architecture, not much was emailed out. However, my desk was full of 30"x42" design and construction documents for various projects. We routinely collaborated with our team of co-workers and architects to ensure that projects were throughly vetted from a variety of professional resources and concepts. Since we also developed graphics, we had/needed space to print and prepare large scale finished products.
Well I suppose a lot has changed or maybe it's the difference of my involvement in the planning. I just finished a project with CDH - Atlanta, and while working on the design details, I met with their architect 1 time - face to face. The rest of the times our ideas were sketched, sent, reviewed and approved. Most of the time it was just the two of us, but there were multiple occasions that we would have to do a conference call with her supervisor, the church-board and the GC - all the while information was passing via the interweb. I did most of it at my offce, but there were plenty of times that I was working from the house - it didn't matter beacuse I still had access to everything needed.
The firms I worked at employed between 20 - 30 people. While we could email and coordinate with subs on a limited basis for work not done inhouse, the space was needed for our own inhouse production and collaboration in the fields of planning, architecture, landscape architecture, interior design and graphics. Final products were assembled in the format desired by the client. However, when it came to turning in completed sets for permitting, those things have to be printed by someone according to the specificiations required by the local municipality. Typically, we were the entity that would compile all the documents and submit the final package.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 11:58:00 AM
We still meet in offices. I have a few scheduled next week. When I worked out of my condo, I would meet people at a Panera, Starbucks or at their office. Office space won't be going away. However, it will shrink and envolve into a new product.
This.
Quote from: stephendare on January 27, 2011, 12:29:03 PM
although looking at the field of telephone sales, I have to say that the future of business communications is probably going to happen in the form of digital audio/video captures instead of just paperwork.
Maybe so, but not by 2020. Everyone is struggling now and to make a wholesale conversion like that would require a significant amount of cash to retrofit entire industries and governmental agencies across the board.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:39:46 PM
Maybe so, but not by 2020. Everyone is struggling now and to make a wholesale conversion like that would require a significant amount of cash to retrofit entire industries and governmental agencies across the board.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the infrastructure to do this is intact - the only thing missing is the user end hardware - and even that's not at all expensive, even today - imagine where it'll be in a few years.
The amount that can be done from home depends upon the type of job.
Call centers (bread and butter of southpoint and baymeadows) can be done from anywhere.
If you don't trust VOIP, a simple POTS line will suffice, and if the worker's home PC breaks, it usually means that they have to take personal time or come into the office.
Many other positions can be done with no difference in office location.
Face to Face interaction is the one thing that people will miss the most by telecommuting. For those people, they will always want an office or cube to go sit in.
In my line of work (IT), if you do work for a company and have to be onsite, its hard to get anything accomplished except for break/fix and basic repairs. There are many times that the SysAdmin has to stop working that major patch he is testing just to grab a mouse out of the supply closet and take it to the VP of sales who refuses to deal with the helpdesk.
I used to accomplish more just by hiding in the server room with my laptop. The only people that can get in are IT and very few upper management. Amazing what happens when you don't have someone coming up to you asking: "My home PC is not working right, it makes a noise when I turn it on, can you tell me what is wrong with it?".
Yes, sometimes you need that face to face, but not always the cooler talk.
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 27, 2011, 12:43:25 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:39:46 PM
Maybe so, but not by 2020. Everyone is struggling now and to make a wholesale conversion like that would require a significant amount of cash to retrofit entire industries and governmental agencies across the board.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the infrastructure to do this is intact - the only thing missing is the user end hardware - and even that's not at all expensive, even today - imagine where it'll be in a few years.
The main thing missing is money to retrofit and educate hundreds of thousands of people and businesses on something that completely changes how several fields operate. How many years did it take for the entire industry to move from using T-squares to AutoCAD? I still remember seeing older guys and firms still using T-squares as late as 2003. Going completely digital (a wholesale change in how contractors, clients, muncipalities and design professionals operate) will take longer than 10 years, imo.
Quote from: jandar on January 27, 2011, 05:32:14 PM
Face to Face interaction is the one thing that people will miss the most by telecommuting. For those people, they will always want an office or cube to go sit in.
This is why there will always be a need for some form of office space. Face to face interaction is very important in my line of work.
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 05:37:20 PM
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 27, 2011, 12:43:25 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:39:46 PM
Maybe so, but not by 2020. Everyone is struggling now and to make a wholesale conversion like that would require a significant amount of cash to retrofit entire industries and governmental agencies across the board.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the infrastructure to do this is intact - the only thing missing is the user end hardware - and even that's not at all expensive, even today - imagine where it'll be in a few years.
The main thing missing is money to retrofit and educate hundreds of thousands of people and businesses on something that completely changes how several fields operate. How many years did it take for the entire industry to move from using T-squares to AutoCAD? I still remember seeing older guys and firms still using T-squares as late as 2003. Going completely digital (a wholesale change in how contractors, clients, muncipalities and design professionals operate) will take longer than 10 years, imo.
Ummmm t-squares in 2003, what were they designing, buggy whips? ;)
Lol, public schools, churches and manufacturing plants. They would draw projects by hand and then give the material to interns to put into CAD. Btw, I remember doing brief summer intership for a small firm in 1997 that was still creating actual "blueprints."
Who really cares what he says, he gets paid $300,000+ no matter what happens locally. He and Wally should have their salaries tied to their performance. Between the both of them they make close to 800k, and the salaries continue to rise, no matter their performance or the number of jobs they bring to Jax.
This is one of the reasons I dumped the Chamber. When the leaders have no accountability, it becomes a lot like the Cith of Jax leaders.
Quote from: simms3 on January 26, 2011, 07:31:14 PM
Full article here:
http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=532799
Quote
Jacksonville outlook: Jerry Mallot
Executive vice president, Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce
President, Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
As Mallot offered his top 10, he also asked Johnson to join the chamber’s headquarters recruitment team, adding that such efforts also will need help from the state and that Jacksonville needs greater nonstop air service.
Mallot presented his top 10 predictions for the decade in reverse order.
10. Scott will be the most aggressive governor in job creation since Bush. “We’ve hit rock bottom and we’ve got to turn it around.â€
9. The unemployment rate will drop below 5 percent by 2016 and it will be below 10 percent by December this year. “By 2016 we’re going to have a tight workforce and by 2018 we will be recruiting people,†he said.
8. A nuclear career will be located at Mayport Naval Station by 2020.
7. The financial services, professional and business services, logistics and medical services industries will lead employment growth. “You are going to see a booming economy in Northeast Florida in the next 12 months.†Jacksonville’s Real Gross Metro Product will soon match the peak it reached in the middle of the past decade and continue to rise, according to a University of Central Florida report.
6. Construction and real estate will boom by 2017. Also, office employees are increasingly telecommuting. “Ten to 30 percent who were in offices are working from home,†he said.
5. The Alliance Florida Center at Cecil Commerce Center will be a booming business park with more than 5 million square feet of space and other industrial parks will also be successful.
4. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who were announced in 1993 and began playing in 1995, will still be in Jacksonville and will have won a Super Bowl. Mallot said that’s what owner Wayne Weaver wants.
3. By 2020, Downtown will be the place for business and housing. “We have enormous commitment to redevelop Downtown,†he said. “It’s going to take real investment from the private sector and partnership with the public sector.â€
2. The port of Jacksonville will be dredged to 48 feet.
And his No. 1 prediction?
“The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl in 2011.â€
Guys, what do you think about his list?
Can we say horrible timetable, weak outlook, nothing new, and slightly stupid? He sounds excited about having a routine NE FL economy by 2020. He thinks the entire river's shipping channel will be dredged to to 48 ft.! 5 million SF of space in Cecil Commerce Center? I'll see it when I believe it. Up to 30% of people working from home? Eh, I'd say 10-15% max. New carrier by 2020? I believe that will happen, but I'll be starting to have grey hairs by then! That doesn't inspire much confidence.
Hey since we recently had a local cop who posts on this site arguing with me and Stephen ad nauseum that it's not illegal to own a personal nuclear bomb, we might get a nuclear ship sooner than that! Me and Stephen have been thinking about converting my boat over to nuclear power to save on gas, after NotNow told us how that's apparently perfectly legal. LMAO, I think we should all do that since it turns out that whole thing about you not being supposed to have nuclear devices is false and it's completely legal. We could have like 20,000 nuclear boats here!
Quote from: civil42806 on January 28, 2011, 06:35:05 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 05:37:20 PM
Quote from: Non-RedNeck Westsider on January 27, 2011, 12:43:25 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on January 27, 2011, 12:39:46 PM
Maybe so, but not by 2020. Everyone is struggling now and to make a wholesale conversion like that would require a significant amount of cash to retrofit entire industries and governmental agencies across the board.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the infrastructure to do this is intact - the only thing missing is the user end hardware - and even that's not at all expensive, even today - imagine where it'll be in a few years.
The main thing missing is money to retrofit and educate hundreds of thousands of people and businesses on something that completely changes how several fields operate. How many years did it take for the entire industry to move from using T-squares to AutoCAD? I still remember seeing older guys and firms still using T-squares as late as 2003. Going completely digital (a wholesale change in how contractors, clients, muncipalities and design professionals operate) will take longer than 10 years, imo.
Ummmm t-squares in 2003, what were they designing, buggy whips? ;)
No, convention centers...