Insane High Speed Rail Math In Florida

[tufsu1]

Or I could drive my family of 5 for about a "C" note round trip, and save all the hassels of air, bus and rail travel.

not really...the average cost of driving is about $0.50 per mile...so that would be roughly $280....but obviously still cheaper than other modes if all 5 people are travelling.

seriously? 6 miles a gallon, tufsu?

What silliness are you going to cite in order to prove a point not worth proving?

as Dog Walker pointed out, it covers gas, maintenance, insurance, etc....and as for the silliness I would cite, it would be the Federal IRS standards...for 20120, I will get paid $0.50 per mile that I drive my car for business (which is actually $0.03 less than 2009).

[tufsu1]

It might IF it averages 90+, but with the stations close, and dwell time at least at Mickey, Orlando and Melbourne, a two year old on a fast trike could beat it (figuratively speaking).

No matter what you have invested in this plan TUFSU1 if HSR is anywhere near the end to end time frame of travel that is half or less the cost, it isn't going to carry a soul. Worse still, no where near the numbers it will need to repay several billion dollars with the "imagined profit". You know better too TUFSU1, THERE WILL BE NO PROFIT. From the moment I picked the HSR plan up until I laid it down, I was convulsed with laughter. Someday I intend reading it.

You talk about having to go all the way to the airport to catch the plane, which BTW DOES offer walk up for about twice the price of your super train and 1/4 the travel time, the train is leaving from the "PLANE STATION" too! Maybe I pissed you off or insulted your hard work, but to put this in diplomatic Ocklawaha terms, this whole project is doomed to the junk heap of transportation history. If your insulted just remember I don't care to belong to a club that accepts people like me as members.

Ock...I never quoted the time needed to get to the airport or park/rent a car...because I understand that time is also needed for HSR....as for profit, of course you're right...no transit system makes a profit (neither do roads or airplanes)

All I can tell you about travel time is that the express train that will go from Tampa to OIA is supposed to take about 40 minutes...given that its 72 miles, that would be averaging 110mph...and yes, I understand that not all trains will be express...but neither is Greyhound.

Finally, you didn't piss me off....even though I was involved in some of the work on HSR earlier this decade, I'm not sold on the plan as being the best thing for Florida...but I think people need to know the FACTS, not just the assumptions.

[CS Foltz]

tufsu1 not sure how you came up with that............my figures show 118 mph! That is 72 miles times the 40 min's projected travel! Standard time x distance navigation figure so I am confused as to how you came up with that figure...........you also forgot about the stop in the middle! Which makes things even faster to AVERAGE the 110 mph your posting! Last I saw there were three stops planned OIA , somewhere in the middle and then the Tampa end or is this incorrect? You have to travel 10 to 13% faster to average and set speed above 60 mph to average 60 mph unless you have a clear path without any slowdowns or stoppages! I base that 10 to 13% on years of having to rendezvous at altitude/water and land without road markers of any kind!

[tufsu1]

sorry CS...I was rounding things off...guess my math was insane (like the thread title) 

you are somewhat correct...there will be 3 stops in between the endpoints (Lakeland, Disney, and Convention Center)...however, the plan is to run a certain number of express trains each day that wouldn't stop at the intermediate stations....that is what the 40 minute time wasd based on

[tufsu1]

As I posted, i understood what you were driving at, tufsu, It just doesnt have any bearing on the conversation in general or the point in specific.

I think it is directly related to the topic...I often make travel decisions between driving and flying, often based on cost (sometimes based on time).

Driving tends to be cheaper for trips when an entire family is travelling together...flying, and trains for that matter, are more competitive for single-person trips (like business trips).

[thelakelander]

Imo, its not the Tampa to Orlando or Miami trips that we should be focusing on.  Everyday ridership will be commuters from each city's suburbs and bedroom communities going back and forth between their homes and the major regional city.  Think Tampa-Brandon-Lakeland, Haines City-Orlando-Cocoa or Stuart-West Palm Beach-Fort Lauderdale instead of the terminal cities.  Imo, that's the fatal flaw in Florida's intercity rail planning.  This is where something like a Amtrak corridor services with local and express trains clearly excells over the HSR plan.  Both in terms of usability and affordability.

[Ocklawaha]

Lake THIS IS THE PROBLEM, you hit the nail with your head... uh? yeah!  There is NOTHING on I-4 for anyone to go to, and the only reason cars are on it at all, is because it gets them to the exit of US27 and a hundred roads like it faster then 17-92.

That station dwell time in the "Huge Orlando Hub" (ahem - HA! - cough) is going to wipe out any savings in flying along at 140 mph. 40 minutes to get to Orlando from Tampa, on the fastest express, then 20-30 minute dwell times for a hub interchange, and we're back to 60-70 minutes. The historic travel pattern is North - South from Orlando, not a roughly east - west alignment. From Orlando to Miami, any sane person is using the Florida Turnpike, yet now the HSR planners have decided that misses the beach cities. Orlando to Miami via Melbourne and the beaches is crazy and with a couple more station stops will cost the train dearly. So ignoring the historic patterns, we either go south through the Kissimmee River Valley, and serve NOTHING, or by way of the beach, and diddle away the timetable.

Historically on the ground its:

Jacksonville-Orlando-Auburndale-Lakeland-Tampa
Jacksonville-Orlando-Auburndale-Sebring-West Palm Beach-Miami
Jacksonville-Daytona Beach-Melbourne-West Palm Beach-Miami
Jacksonville-Ocala-Wildwood-Auburndale-Sebring-West Palm Beach-Miami
Jacksonville-Ocala-Wildwood-Dade City-Lakeland-Tampa

As a famous artist once said, "All roads lead to Jacksonville..." We don't have to dream it, we are it, even if we're too stupid to realize it!

OCKLAWAHA

[tufsu1]

I agree with Lake...but it changes your argument Ock....you were discussing the merits of the long-distance non-stop trip.....obviously one of the advantages rail (and buses) have over air travel is that it can make intermediate stops along the route.


As for the HSR route from Orlando to Miami, it has not been decided....they are still looking at both the Turnpike route and the Beachline/95 route

[thelakelander]

Imo, the Beachline makes better sense than the Turnpike and the FEC makes better sense then I-95.  The Turnpike may be faster between Orlando and Miami but it serves nothing but the boonies in between.  Tying in the populated coastal cities and Cape/Port Canaveral with Orlando and Miami makes a ton of more sense then serving the woods, cow pastures and orange groves along the Turnpike.

[Ocklawaha]

Imo, the Beachline makes better sense than the Turnpike and the FEC makes better sense then I-95.  The Turnpike may be faster between Orlando and Miami but it serves nothing but the boonies in between.  Tying in the populated coastal cities and Cape/Port Canaveral with Orlando and Miami makes a ton of more sense then serving the woods, cow pastures and orange groves along the Turnpike.

Lakes argument is just the flip side of the same coin. That HSR will do nothing to serve the "commuter corridors of Central and South Florida" and very little if anything on the long distance stages due to circuitous routing. Serve the Turnpike line and you assure our billion dollar rails serve NOTHING AT ALL. It is a lose - lose argument. It is also the sole point/points that need to be fixed before those without the stars in our eyes will support it.

Ask anyone why they don't take Amtrak to Miami from Jacksonville today, and they'll tell you 9 to 12 hours! The same thing will happen to the HSR line once FDOT figures out that Orlando is not a railroad distributor, rather it's a terminal point. People are GOING TO Orlando, not through it, and the reason is geographically obvious. What flies in the air, doesn't always fly on the ground, and their about to find this out. Hell there is no bigger rail advocate in Florida then myself, and as I said, the plan makes one burst out in laughter... then you read it!

OCKLAWAHA

[CS Foltz]

Ock......I concur with your viewpoint! I would like to see true HSR here in Florida but have reservations about that regions being the one! We need a showcase system, no frills and a lean and mean people moving machine! I understand all of the consulting and projections that have been done to this point but must point out ......no one bothered to ask me squat! I don't care how or really where but Orlando just is not it! You have to basically start from scratch and there are rails in place right now (FEC) that could be used to our advantage! I keep harping about using what we have available as in right now today, and it appears that FDOT has other plans starting elsewhere..............real cost effective! All I have to say is, pay for it out of your pockets!

[tufsu1]

CS...true HSR (which according to some people needs to be 200+ mph) couldn't be accomplished on the FEC line....so what do you really want...

A. True HSR on new alignments with grade separated crossings
B. Upgraded intercity rail using existing corridors w/ speeds of up to 90mph
C. A combination of both
D. Neither

[thelakelander]

I don't know about CS's position, but I'd prefer option B to get started.  Peak speed should be a secondary issue.  Its more crucial to upgrade and improve slower track sections than it is to worry about getting a train up to 200+ mph.  The FEC serves populated city centers.  I-95 and the Turnpike serve sprawl and undeveloped land.  You can't be Micheal Jordan by just showing up on the court cold turkey without playing years and years of ball at an early age.  You'll get laughed off the court.  The same goes for planning intercity rail in Florida.  We need to learn how to crawl, walk, and dribble before running, dunking and draining 23 footers.

[tufsu1]

As you know, I agree (other than the I-95 serves sprawl part)...but what's your long-term vision?

[CS Foltz]

lake.............I agree , option B to start! No more frills then is necessary but a lean people moving system, 200mph is not critical to start but a system that makes use of existing rail would be a cheaper system to start with, as in FEC side along the East Coast which actually has urban centers or population centers that could make use of rail to move people along........East Coast to start and enough trains for at least 2 a day.....and that would be two down and two up at staggered hours where something leaves AM at a reasonable hour! If that would be too much then try one a day both ways......we need to start something and the FEC rails at least extend to Miami from Jacksonville. Try a trial program and see just how it works out.....I think there would be more traffic from here to Miami than from here to Orlando! We need to get something started and that appears to me to be the most cost efficient and making use of what is in place right this very minute! It would be nice to start with a clean sheet of paper but not very cost effective for something that is not traveling @  200mph! That would require a clean sheet, maybe, or some of the existing trackage could be upgraded to where your looking a 120 mph after upgrading to 90 mph. I agree with lake's viewpoint............ya gotta start small and go up from there! Expand system from there to encompass the whole State, one bit at a time........needless to say funding goes hand in hand with expansion to those limits! Wether it is taxing Parking Garages(or a slice of the pie)Inland Navigation gets $2.73 from me ......why not Mass Transit? For something like that.....which benefits everyone, I would have to consider it!